Kin selection and parasite evolution: higher and lower virulence with hard and soft selection

Conventional models predict that low genetic relatedness among parasites that coinfect the same host leads to the evolution of high parasite virulence. Such models assume adaptive responses to hard selection only. We show that if soft selection is allowed to operate, low relatedness leads instead to the evolution of low virulence. With both hard and soft selection, low relatedness increases the conflict among coinfecting parasites. Although parasites can only respond to hard selection by evolving higher virulence and overexploiting their host, they can respond to soft selection by evolving other adaptations, such as interference, that prevent overexploitation. Because interference can entail a cost, the host may actually be underexploited, and virulence will decrease as a result of soft selection. Our analysis also shows that responses to soft selection can have a much stronger effect than responses to hard selection. After hard selection has raised virulence to a level that is an evolutionarily stable strategy, the population, as expected, cannot be invaded by more virulent phenotypes that respond only to hard selection. The population remains susceptible to invasion by a less virulent phenotype that responds to soft selection, however. Thus, hard and soft selection are not just alternatives. Rather, soft selection is expected to prevail and often thwart the evolution of virulence in parasites. We review evidence from several parasite systems and find support for soft selection. Most of the examples involve interference mechanisms that indirectly prevent the evolution of higher virulence. We recognize that hard selection for virulence is more difficult to document, but we take our results to suggest that a kin selection model with soft selection may have general applicability.     

EVOLUTION OF GENERALISTS AND SPECIALISTS IN SPATIALLY HETEROGENEOUS ENVIRONMENTS

Quantitative genetic models are used to investigate the evolution of generalists and specialists in a coarse-grained environment with two habitat types when there are costs attached to being a generalist. The outcomes for soft and hard selection models are qualitatively different. Under soft selection (e.g., for juvenile or male-reproductive traits) the population evolves towards the single peak in the adaptive landscape. At equilibrium, the population mean phenotype is a compromise between the reaction that would be optimal in both habitats and the reaction with the lowest cost. Furthermore, the equilibrium is closer to the optimal phenotype in the most frequent habitat, or the habitat in which selection on the focal trait is stronger. A specialist genotype always has a lower fitness than a generalist, even when the costs are high. In contrast, under hard selection (e.g., for adult or female-reproductive traits) the adaptive landscape can have one, two, or three peaks; a peak represents a population specialized to one habitat, equally adapted to both habitats, or an intermediate. One peak is always found when the reaction with the lowest cost is not much different from the optimal reaction, and this situation is similar to the soft selection case. However, multiple peaks are present when the costs become higher, and the course of evolution is then determined by initial conditions, and the region of attraction of each peak. This implies that the evolution of specialization and phenotypic plasticity may not only depend on selection regimes within habitats, but also on contingent, historical events (migration, mutation). Furthermore, the evolutionary dynamics in changing environments can be widely different for populations under hard and soft selection. Approaches to measure costs in natural and experimental populations are discussed.     

Evolution in fine-grained environments. II. Habitat selection as a homeostatic mechanism

A model of genotype specific habitat selection is developed for an organism subject to within-lifetime environmental fluctuations. Habitat selection is first overlaid upon both hard and soft selection Levene models with either discrete or continuous habitats. It is shown that even if all genotypes have identical physiological and fitness responses within a habitat, habitat selection can still maintain a polymorphism. In other words, physiological divergence is not a necessary prerequisite for divergence in habitat preferences. Within-lifetime environmental variability is then assumed to occur within each chosen habitat. It is shown that habitat selection acts as an evolutionary filter that can enhance the fitness impact of some niches and effectively eliminate the impact of others such that it generally increases the chances for a polymorphism under soft selection. However, density-dependent effects obscure the relationship between physiological fitness and evolutionary outcome. Indeed, it is possible for selection to favor an allele causing its bearers to preferentially go to the niche to which they are least physiologically adapted. Hence, changes in habitat preference can evolve before an organism has completely adapted physiologically to a new habitat. The fitness impact of habitat selection interacts with both homeostatic avoidance mechanisms (i.e., short-term buffering) and with tolerance (long-term) mechanisms. In general, habitat selection will be most favored in those organisms deficient in long-term tolerance. Moreover, habitat selection tends to accentuate selection favoring short-term avoidance mechanisms. Thus, organisms displaying much habitat selection should have poor physiological long-term tolerances but effective physiological short-term avoidance mechanisms. Finally, if the fitness costs associated with habitat selection are too large to be ignored and are comparable for all genotypes, habitat selection directs the selective pressures back onto the physiological homeostatic capabilities. Hence, the very existence and extent of habitat selection depends critically upon the physiological capabilities of the organism.     

Experimental demonstration of the impact of hard and soft selection regimes on polymorphism maintenance in spatially heterogeneous environments†

Predicting and managing contemporary adaption requires a proper understanding of the determinants of genetic variation. Spatial heterogeneity of the environment may stably maintain polymorphism when habitat contribution to the next generation can be considered independent of the degree of adaptation of local populations within habitats (i.e., under soft selection). In contrast, when habitats contribute proportionally to the mean fitness of the populations they host (hard selection), polymorphism is not expected to be maintained by selection. Although mathematically established decades ago, this prediction had never been demonstrated experimentally. Here, we provide an experimental test in which polymorphic populations of Escherichia coli growing in heterogeneous habitats were exposed to hard and soft selection regimes. As predicted by theory, polymorphism was preserved longer under soft selection. Complementary tests established that soft selection slowed fixation processes and could even protect polymorphism in the long term by providing a systematic advantage to rare genotypes.     

Sexual selection in genetic colour-polymorphic species: a review of experimental studies and perspectives

Sexual selection theory has primarily focussed on the role of mating preferences for the best individuals in the evolution of condition-dependent ornaments, traits that signal absolute quality. Because the most suitable mate for one individual is not always the best for others, however, we argue that non-directional mate choice can promote the evolution of alternative morphs that are not condition-dependent in their expression (i.e. genetic polymorphism). We list the different mate-choice rules (i.e. all individuals have the same preference; preference depends on the chooser’s morph; individuals mate preferentially with conspecifics displaying an uncommon or the most frequent morph) and review experimental studies that investigated mate choice in natural populations of colour-polymorphic animals. Our review emphasises that although the experimental data support the idea that sexual selection plays an important role in the evolution of genetic colour polymorphism in many different ways, little is known about the adaptive value of each mate-choice strategy and about their implication in the evolutionary stability of colour polymorphism. One way of solving this problem is to determine the adaptive function of colour morphs, a worthwhile objective, because better understanding of mate-choice rules in polymorphic species should provide important insights into sexual-selection processes and, in turn, into the maintenance of genetic variation.     

The maintenance (or not) of polygenic variation by soft selection in heterogeneous environments

On the basis of single-locus models, spatial heterogeneity of the environment coupled with strong population regulation within each habitat (soft selection) is considered an important mechanism maintaining genetic variation. We studied the capacity of soft selection to maintain polygenic variation for a trait determined by several additive loci, selected in opposite directions in two habitats connected by dispersal. We found three main types of stable equilibria. Extreme equilibria are characterized by extreme specialization to one habitat and loss of polymorphism. They are analogous to monomorphic equilibria in singe-locus models and are favored by similar factors: high dispersal, weak selection, and low marginal average fitness of intermediate genotypes. At the remaining two types of equilibria the population mean is intermediate but variance is very different. At fully polymorphic equilibria all loci are polymorphic, whereas at low-variance equilibria at most one locus remains polymorphic. For most parameters only one type of equilibrium is stable; the transition between the domains of fully polymorphic and low-variance equilibria is typically sharp. Low-variance equilibria are favored by high marginal average fitness of intermediate genotypes, in contrast to single-locus models, in which marginal overdominance is particularly favorable for maintenance of polymorphism. The capacity of soft selection to maintain polygenic variation is thus more limited than extrapolation from single-locus models would suggest, in particular if dispersal is high and selection weak. This is because in a polygenic model, variance can evolve independently of the mean, whereas in the single-locus two-allele case, selection for an intermediate mean automatically leads to maintenance of polymorphism.     

Sexual selection and natural selection in bird speciation

The role of sexual selection in speciation is investigated, addressing two main issues. First, how do sexually selected traits become species recognition traits? Theory and empirical evidence suggest that female preferences often do not evolve as a correlated response to evolution of male traits. This implies that, contrary to runaway (Fisherian) models of sexual selection, premating isolation will not arise as an automatic side effect of divergence between populations in sexually selected traits. I evaluate premating isolating mechanisms in one group, the birds. In this group premating isolation is often a consequence of sexual imprinting, whereby young birds learn features of their parents and use these features in mate choice. Song, morphology and plumage are known recognition cues. I conclude that perhaps the main role for sexual selection in speciation is in generating differences between populations in traits. Sexual imprinting then leads to these traits being used as species recognition mechanisms. The second issue addressed in this paper is the role of sexual selection in adaptive radiation, again concentrating on birds. Ecological differences between species include large differences in size, which may in themselves be sufficient for species recognition, and differences in habitat, which seem to evolve frequently and at all stages of an adaptive radiation. Differences in habitat often cause song and plumage patterns to evolve as a result of sexual selection for efficient communication. Therefore sexual selection is likely to have an important role in generating premating isolating mechanisms throughout an adaptive radiation. It is also possible that sexual selection, by creating more allopatric species, creates more opportunity for ecological divergence to occur. The limited available evidence does not support this idea. A role for sexual selection in accelerating ecological diversification has yet to be demonstrated.     

Variability selection in hominid evolution

Variability selection (abbreviated as VS) is a process considered to link adaptive change to large degrees of environment variability. Its application to hominid evolution is based, in part, on the pronounced rise in environmental remodeling that took place over the past several million years. The VS hypothesis differs from prior views of hominid evolution, which stress the consistent selective effects associated with specific habitats or directional trends (e.g., woodland, savanna expansion, cooling). According to the VS hypothesis, wide fluctuations over time created a growing disparity in adaptive conditions. Inconsistency in selection eventually caused habitat-specific adaptations to be replaced by structures and behaviors responsive to complex environmental change. Key hominid adaptations, in fact, emerged during times of heightened variability. Early bipedality, encephalized brains, and complex human sociality appear to signify a sequence of VS adaptations—i.e., a ratcheting up of versatility and responsiveness to novel environments experienced over the past 6 million years. The adaptive results of VS cannot be extrapolated from selection within a single environmental shift or relatively stable habitat. If some complex traits indeed require disparities in adaptive setting (and relative fitness) in order to evolve, the VS idea counters the prevailing view that adaptive change necessitates long-term, directional consistency in selection. © 1998 Wiley-Liss, Inc.     

The quick and the dead: correlational selection on morphology, performance, and habitat use in island lizards

Natural selection is an important driver of microevolution. Yet, despite significant theoretical debate, we still have a poor understanding of how selection operates on interacting traits (i.e., morphology, performance, habitat use). Locomotor performance is often assumed to impact survival because of its key role in foraging, predator escape, and social interactions, and shows strong links with morphology and habitat use within and among species. In particular, decades of study suggest, but have not yet demonstrated, that natural selection on locomotor performance has shaped the diversification of Anolis lizards in the Greater Antilles. Here, we estimate natural selection on sprinting speed and endurance in small replicate island populations of Anolis sagrei. Consistent with past correlational studies, long-limbed lizards ran faster on broad surfaces but also had increased sprint sensitivity on narrow surfaces. Moreover, performance differences were adaptive in the wild. Selection favored long-limbed lizards that were fast on broad surfaces, and preferred broad substrates in nature, and also short-limbed lizards that were less sprint sensitive on narrow surfaces, and preferred narrow perches in nature. This finding is unique in showing that selection does not act on performance alone, but rather on unique combinations of performance, morphology, and habitat use. Our results support the long-standing hypothesis that correlated selection on locomotor performance, morphology, and habitat use drives the evolution of ecomorphological correlations within Caribbean Anolis lizards, potentially providing a microevolutionary mechanism for their remarkable adaptive radiation.     

On the standardization of fitness and traits in comparative studies of phenotypic selection

Comparisons of the strength and form of phenotypic selection among groups provide a powerful approach for testing adaptive hypotheses. A central and largely unaddressed issue is how fitness and phenotypes are standardized in such studies; standardization across or within groups can qualitatively change conclusions whenever mean fitness differs between groups. We briefly reviewed recent relevant literature, and found that selection studies vary widely in their scale of standardization, but few investigators motivated their rationale for chosen standardization approaches. Here, we propose that the scale at which fitness should be relativized should reflect whether selection is likely to be hard or soft; that is, the scale at which populations (or hypothetical populations in the case of a contrived experiment) are regulated. We argue that many comparative studies of selection are implicitly or explicitly focused on soft selection (i.e., frequency and density‐dependent selection). In such studies, relative fitness should preferably be calculated using within‐group means, although this approach is taken only occasionally. Related difficulties arise for the standardization of phenotypes. The appropriate scale at which standardization should take place depends on whether groups are considered to be fixed or random. We emphasize that the scale of standardization is a critical decision in empirical studies of selection that should always warrant explicit justification.     

Soft selection reduces loss of heterozygosity in asexual reproduction

The adaptive value of sexual reproduction is still debated in evolutionary theory. It has been proposed that the advantage of sexual reproduction over asexual reproduction is to promote genetic diversity, to prevent the accumulation of harmful mutations or to preserve heterozygosity. Since these hypothetical advantages depend on the type of asexual reproduction, understanding how selection affects the taxonomic distribution of each type could help us discriminate between existing hypotheses. Here, I argue that soft selection, competition among embryos or offspring in selection arenas prior to the hard selection of the adult phase, reduces loss of heterozygosity in certain types of asexual reproduction. Since loss of heterozygosity leads to the unmasking of recessive deleterious mutations in the progeny of asexual individuals, soft selection facilitates the evolution of these types of asexual reproduction. Using a population genetics model, I calculate how loss of heterozygosity affects fitness for different types of apomixis and automixis, and I show that soft selection significantly reduces loss of heterozygosity, hence increases fitness, in apomixis with suppression of the first meiotic division and in automixis with central fusion, the most common types of asexual reproduction. Therefore, if sexual reproduction evolved to preserve heterozygosity, soft selection should be associated with these types of asexual reproduction. I discuss the evidence for this prediction and how this and other observations on the distribution of different types of asexual reproduction in nature is consistent with the heterozygosity hypothesis.     

Digest: Untangling the influence of soft and hard selection in experimental populations—from environment to genomics*

Gallet et al. (2018) studied the effect of two selection regimes on the maintenance of polymorphism in experimental populations. They took two strains of Escherichia coli, each resistant to a different antibiotic, evolved them in culture conditions representing “soft” or “hard” selective regimes, and measured polymorphism levels for three to five transfers. Their results supported theoretical predictions that only “soft” selection maintains polymorphism, highlighting the importance of experimental studies to understand maintenance of variation in nature.     

Unpredictable selection in a structured population leads to local genetic differentiation in evolved reaction norms

Unpredictability during development of the optimum phenotype under future selection leads to a compromise reaction norm with a slope that is shallower than the slope of the optimum reaction norm. Unpredictability of selection can lead to an evolved curved reaction norm when genetic variation for curvature is available even if the optimum reaction norm is linear. This requires asymmetry in the frequency distribution of the habitats of selection; at small population size, stochasticity in the number of individuals per selection habitat is sufficient to generate such asymmetry. Unpredictability of selection in structured populations leads to local genetic differentiation of reaction norms. The mean habitat of a subpopulation is defined as the subpopulation's focal habitat. The evolved mean reaction norm of each subpopulation is anchored at the optimum genotypic value in its focal habitat. Linear reaction norms are parallel if the conditional distribution of adults around the focal habitats is the same for each subpopulation. Adult migration and absence of zygote dispersal represents the ultimate structured population, each habitat playing the role of focal habitat. Absence of zygote dispersal requires that the flow of individuals through the habitats is used instead of the habitats’ frequencies in the prediction of the evolved reaction norm. Adult migration in absence of zygote dispersal leads to an evolved pattern of locally differentiated reaction norms with optimum genotypic value anchored in the focal habitat and, for linear reaction norms, parallel slopes.     

Forecasting ecological and evolutionary strategies to global change: an example from habitat selection by lemmings

Ecologists and evolutionary biologists must develop theories that can predict the consequences of global warming and other impacts on Earth's biota. Theories of adaptive habitat selection are particularly promising because they link distribution and density with fitness. The evolutionarily stable strategy that emerges from adaptive habitat choice is given by the system's habitat isodar, the graph of densities in pairs of habitats such that the expectation of fitness is the same in each. We illustrate how isodars can be converted into adaptive landscapes of habitat selection that display the density‐ and frequency‐dependent fitness of competing strategies of habitat use. The adaptive landscape varies with the abundance of habitats and can thus be used to predict future adaptive distributions of individuals under competing scenarios of habitat change. Application of the theory to three species of Arctic rodents living on Herschel Island in the Beaufort Sea predicts changes in selection gradients as xeric upland increases in frequency with global warming. Selection gradients will become more shallow for brown lemming (Lemmus trimucronatus) and tundra vole (Microtus oeconomus) strategies that preferentially exploit mesic habitat. Climate change will cause selection gradients for the alternative strategy of using mostly xeric habitat to become much steeper. Meanwhile, the adaptive landscape for collared lemmings (Dicrostonyx groenlandicus), which specialize on xeric Dryas‐covered upland, will become increasingly convex. Changes in the adaptive landscapes thus predict expanding niches for Lemmus and Microtus, and a narrower niche for Dicrostonyx. The ability to draw adaptive landscapes from current patterns of distribution represents one of the few methods available to forecast the consequences of climate change on the future distribution and evolution of affected species.     

Sexual selection, population density, and availability of mates

The evolution of sexual features designed to attract individuals of the opposite sex is studied. When limitation of sexual choice by physical availability of mates is accounted for, the exact distribution of the number of alternative mates available to a choosing individual (usually female) proves crucial for the evolution of sexual attractiveness. Selection for or against the attractive type or maintenance of a protected polymorphism of types in the population are shown to be dependent upon this distribution. It is further demonstrated that high high population density is always favorable to the evolution of the attractive type. Some ecogenetical aspects of sexual selection and population density are suggested.     

Adaptation and habitat selection in the eco-evolutionary process

The struggle for existence occurs through the vital rates of population growth. This basic fact demonstrates the tight connection between ecology and evolution that defines the emerging field of eco-evolutionary dynamics. An effective synthesis of the interdependencies between ecology and evolution is grounded in six principles. The mechanics of evolution specifies the origin and rules governing traits and evolutionary strategies. Traits and evolutionary strategies achieve their selective value through their functional relationships with fitness. Function depends on the underlying structure of variation and the temporal, spatial and organizational scales of evolution. An understanding of how changes in traits and strategies occur requires conjoining ecological and evolutionary dynamics. Adaptation merges these five pillars to achieve a comprehensive understanding of ecological and evolutionary change. I demonstrate the value of this world-view with reference to the theory and practice of habitat selection. The theory allows us to assess evolutionarily stable strategies and states of habitat selection, and to draw the adaptive landscapes for habitat-selecting species. The landscapes can then be used to forecast future evolution under a variety of climate change and other scenarios.     

Evolution in heterogeneous environments: between soft and hard selection

Since their first formulations about half a century ago, the soft and hard selection models have become classical frameworks to study selection in subdivided populations. These models differ in the timing of density regulation and represent two extreme types of selection: density- and frequency-dependent selection (soft) and density- and frequency-independent selection (hard). Yet only few attempts have been made so far to model intermediate scenarios. Here, we design a model where migration may happen twice during the life cycle: before density regulation with probability d(J) (juvenile migration) and after density regulation with probability d(A) (adult migration). In the first step, we analyze the conditions for the coexistence of two specialists. We find that coexistence is possible under a large range of selection types, even when environmental heterogeneity is low. Then, we investigate the different possible outcomes obtained through gradual evolution. We show that polymorphism is more likely to evolve when the trade-off is weak, environmental heterogeneity is high, migration is low, and in particular when juvenile migration is low relative to adult migration, because the timing of migration affects the magnitude of frequency-dependent selection relative to gene flow. This model may provide a more general theoretical framework to experimentally study evolution in heterogeneous environments.     

Strong habitat selection and the development of population structure in a mosquito

Summary Remarkably simple and regular patterns of genic variation for two electrophoretically assayed loci are presented against a background of strong habitat selection, population isolation, and population structuring in the pitcher-plant mosquitoWyeomyia smithii. The genic variation assessed thus far comes from 29 local populations, all but one of which lie within the glaciated region of North America. Although the conclusions drawn from these patterns are still quite tentative, it appears that the fact that the same higher frequency electromorphs occurred everywhere for both loci may be due more to selection than drift. Drift or selection, acting alone or in concert may be responsible for the almost complete absence of electromorphs of intermediate frequency. A weak association was found between the two-locus genic variation and the well-studied diapause-development time variation in this species. It is suggested that a Wrightian interaction system and fluctuating-stabilizing selection might account for maintenance of the genic level polymorphism. The observations reported are circumstantially in accord with Wright's shifting balance process of evolution. Future studies in the older parts of the species range will put these hypotheses to a strong test.     

Spatiotemporal environmental heterogeneity and the maintenance of the tailspot polymorphism in the variable platyfish (Xiphophorus variatus)

Genetic variation is critical for adaptive evolution. Despite its importance, there is still limited evidence in support of some prominent theoretical models explaining the maintenance of genetic polymorphism within populations. We examined 84 populations of Xiphophorus variatus, a livebearing fish with a genetic polymorphism associated with physiological performance, to test: (1) whether niche differentiation explains broad‐scale maintenance of polymorphism, (2) whether polymorphism is maintained among populations by local adaptation and migration, or (3) whether heterogeneity in explicit environmental variables could be linked to levels of polymorphism within populations. We found no evidence of climatic niche differentiation that could generate or maintain broad geographic variation in polymorphism. Subsequently, hierarchical partitioning of genetic richness and partial mantel tests revealed that 76% of the observed genetic richness was partitioned within populations with no effect of geographic distance on polymorphism. These results strongly suggest a lack of migration‐selection balance in the maintenance of polymorphism, and model selection confirmed a significant relationship between environmental heterogeneity and genetic richness within populations. Few studies have demonstrated such effects at this scale, and additional studies in other taxa should examine the generality of gene‐by‐environment interactions across populations to better understand the dynamics and scale of balancing selection.     

Ecological rigidity and the hardness of selection in the wild

Hutchinson's ecological theater and evolutionary play is a classical view of evolutionary ecology—ecology provides a template in which evolution occurs. An opposing view is that ecological and evolutionary changes are like two actors on a stage, intertwined by density and frequency dependence. These opposing views correspond to hard and soft selection, respectively. Although often presented as diametrically opposed, both types of selection can occur simultaneously, yet we largely lack knowledge of the relative importance of hard versus soft selection in the wild. I use a dataset of 3000 individual gall makers from 15 wild local populations over 5 years to investigate the hardness of selection. I show that enemy attack consistently favors some gall sizes over others (hard selection) but that these biases can be fine-tuned by density and frequency dependence (soft selection). As a result, selection is hard and soft in roughly equal measures, but the importance of each type varies as species interactions shift. I conclude that eco-evolutionary dynamics should occur when a mix of hard and soft selection acts on a population. This work contributes to the rapprochement of disparate views of evolutionary ecology—ecology is neither a rigid theater nor a flexible actor, but instead embodies components of both.