The use of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation of gametic frequencies of multilocus polymorphic codominant systems based on sampled population data

Estimation of gametic frequencies in multilocus polymorphic systems based on the numerical distribution of multilocus genotypes in a population sample ("analysis without pedigrees") is difficult because some gametes are not recognized in the data obtained. Even in the case of codominant systems, where all alleles can be recognized by genotypes, so that direct estimation of the frequencies of genes (alleles) is possible ("complete data"), estimation of the frequencies of multilocus gametes based on the data on multilocus genotypes is sometimes impossible, whether population data or even family data are used for studying genotypic segregation or analysis of linkage ("incomplete data"). Such "incomplete data" are analyzed based on the corresponding genetic models using the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm. In this study, the EM algorithm based on the random-marriage model for a nonsubdivided population was used to estimate gametic frequencies. The EM algorithm used in the study does not set any limitations on the number of loci and the number of alleles of each locus. Locus and alleles are identified by numeration making possible to arrange loops. In each combination of alleles for a given combination of m out of L loci (L is the total number of loci studied), all alleles are assigned value 1, and the remaining alleles are assigned value 0. The sum of zeros and unities for each gamete is its gametic value (h), and the sum of the gametic values of the gametes that form a given genotype is the genotypic value (g) of this genotype. Then, gametes with the same h are united into a single class, which reduces the number of the estimated parameters. In a general case of m loci, this procedure yields m + 1 classes of gametes and 2m + 1 classes of genotypes with genotypic values g = 0, 1, 2, ..., 2m. The unknown frequencies of the m + 1 classes of gametes can be represented as functions of the gametic frequencies whose maximum likelihood estimations (MLEs) have been obtained in all previous EM procedures and the only unknown frequency (Pm(m)) that is to be estimated in the given EM procedure. At the expectation step, the expected frequencies (Fm(g) of the genotypes with genotypic values g are expressed in terms of the products of the frequencies of m + 1 classes of gametes. The data on genotypes are the numbers (ng) of individuals with genotypic values g = 0, 1, 2, 3, ..., 2m. The maximization step is the maximization of the logarithm of the likelihood function (LLF) for ng values. Thus, the EM algorithm is reduced, in each case, to solution of only one equation with one unknown parameter with the use of the ng values, i.e., the numbers of individuals after the corresponding regrouping of the data on the individuals' genotypes. Treatment of the data obtained by Kurbatova on the MNSs and Rhesus systems with alleles C, Cw, c, D, d, E, e with the use of Weir's EM algorithm and the EM algorithm suggested in this study yielded similar results. However, the MLEs of the parameters obtained with the use of either algorithm often converged to a wrong solution: the sum of the frequencies of all gametes (4 and 12 gametes for MNSs and Rhesus, respectively) was not equal to 1.0 even if the global maximum of LLF was reached for each of them (as it was for MNSs with the use of Weir's EM algorithm), with each parameter falling within admissible limits (e.g., [0, min(PN,Ps)] for PNs). The chi 2 function is suggested to be used as a goodness-of-fit function for the distribution of genotypes in a sample in order to select acceptable solutions. However, the minimum of this function only guarantee the acceptability of solutions if all limitations on the parameters are met: the sum of estimations of gametic frequencies is 1.0, each frequency falls within the admissible limits, and the "gametic algebra" is complied with (none of the frequencies is negative).     

Descent measures for two loci with some applications

For any four genes, two at each of two loci, in a population, a 15 component descent measure has been introduced. These components are the probabilities of the 15 possible arrangements on a set of initial gametes of those genes of which the four of interest are copies. Since identity by descent of genes is equivalent to their being copies of a single gene on an initial gamete, descent measures have inbreeding coefficients as special cases. The individual descent measure, defined for four genes on two uniting gametes can be evaluated for any pedigree by means of an algorithm developed here. If initial gametic frequencies are specified, descent measures allow genotypic frequencies and disequilibria functions at one and two loci to be found. The procedures are illustrated for selfing and for sib mating. Several applications of the descent measures are discussed.     

Multilocus Structure of Natural Populations of HORDEUM SPONTANEUM

The association of alleles among different loci was studied in natural populations of Hordeum spontaneum, the evolutionary progenitor of cultivated barley. The variance of the number of heterozygous loci in two randomly chosen gametes affords a useful measure of such association. The behavior of this statistic in several particular models is described. Generally, linkage (gametic phase) disequilibrium tends to increase the variance above the value expected under complete independence. This increase is greatest when disequilibria are such as to maximize the sum of squares of the two-locus gametic frequencies.—When data on several loci per individual are available, the observed variance may be tested for its agreement with that expected under the hypothesis of complete interlocus independence, using the sampling theory of this model. When applied to allozyme data from 26 polymorphic populations of wild barley, this test demonstrated the presence of geographically widespread multilocus organization. On average, the variance was 80% higher than expected under random association. Gametic frequencies for four esterase loci in both of these populations of wild barley and two composite crosses of cultivated barley were analyzed. Most generations of the composites showed less multilocus structure, as measured by the indices of association, than the wild populations.     

The multiple-locus symmetric fertility model

Selection due to variation in the fecundity among matings of genotypes with respect to many loci each with two alleles is studied. The fitness of a mating depends only on the genotypic distinction between homozygote and heterozygote at each locus in the two individuals, and differences among loci are allowed. This symmetric fertility model is therefore a generalization of the multiple-locus symmetric viability model. The phenomena seen in the two-locus symmetric fertility model generalize—e.g., the possibility of joint stability of equilibria with linkage equilibrium and with linkage disequilibrium, and the existence of different types of totally polymorphic equilibria with the gametic proportions in linkage equilibrium. The central equilibrium with genotypic frequencies in Hardy-Weinberg proportions and gametic frequencies in Robbins proportions exists for all symmetric fertility models. For some symmetric fertility regimes additional equilibria exist with gametic frequencies in linkage equilibrium and with genotypic frequencies in Hardy-Weinberg proportions at all except one locus. These equilibria may exist in the dioecious symmetric viability model, and then they will be locally stable. For free recombination the stable equilibria show linkage equilibrium, but several of these with different numbers of polymorphic loci may be stable simultaneously.     

The Sampling Distribution of Linkage Disequilibrium under an Infinite Allele Model without Selection

The sampling distributions of several statistics that measure the association of alleles on gametes (linkage disequilibrium) are estimated under a two-locus neutral infinite allele model using an efficient Monte Carlo method. An often used approximation for the mean squared linkage disequilibrium is shown to be inaccurate unless the proper statistical conditioning is used. The joint distribution of linkage disequilibrium and the allele frequencies in the sample is studied. This estimated joint distribution is sufficient for obtaining an approximate maximum likelihood estimate of C = 4Nc, where N is the population size and c is the recombination rate. It has been suggested that observations of high linkage disequilibrium might be a good basis for rejecting a neutral model in favor of a model in which natural selection maintains genetic variation. It is found that a single sample of chromosomes, examined at two loci cannot provide sufficient information for such a test if C less than 10, because with C this small, very high levels of linkage disequilibrium are not unexpected under the neutral model. In samples of size 50, it is found that, even when C is as large as 50, the distribution of linkage disequilibrium conditional on the allele frequencies is substantially different from the distribution when there is no linkage between the loci. When conditioned on the number of alleles at each locus in the sample, all of the sample statistics examined are nearly independent of theta = 4N mu, where mu is the neutral mutation rate.     

Modeling extent and distribution of zygotic disequilibrium: implications for a multigenerational canine pedigree

Unlike gametic linkage disequilibrium defined for a random-mating population, zygotic disequilibrium describes the nonrandom association between different loci in a nonequilibrium population that deviates from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium. Zygotic disequilibrium specifies five different types of disequilibria simultaneously that are (1) Hardy-Weinberg disequilibria at each locus, (2) gametic disequilibrium (including two alleles in the same gamete, each from a different locus), (3) nongametic disequilibrium (including two alleles in different gametes, each from a different locus), (4) trigenic disequilibrium (including a zygote at one locus and an allele at the other), and (5) quadrigenic disequilibrium (including two zygotes each from a different locus). However, because of the uncertainty on the phase of the double heterozygote, gametic and nongametic disequilibria need to be combined into a composite digenic disequilibrium and further define a composite quadrigenic disequilibrium together with the quadrigenic disequilibrium. To investigate the extent and distribution of zygotic disequilibrium across the canine genome, a total of 148 dogs were genotyped at 247 microsatellite markers located on 39 pairs of chromosomes for an outbred multigenerational pedigree, initiated with a limited number of unrelated founders. A major portion of zygotic disequilibrium was contributed by the composite digenic and quadrigenic disequilibrium whose values and numbers of significant marker pairs are both greater than those of trigenic disequilibrium. All types of disequilibrium are extensive in the canine genome, although their values tend to decrease with extended map distances, but with a greater slope for trigenic disequilibrium than for the other types of disequilibrium. Considerable variation in the pattern of disequilibrium reduction was observed among different chromosomes. The results from this study provide scientific guidance about the determination of the number of markers used for whole-genome association studies.     

Linkage disequilibria in finite populations

Four-locus recombination frequencies are summarized into two-locus pair frequencies and three-locus frequencies, and further, into two-locus frequencies such that higher-order frequencies are linear functions of lower-order frequencies. Frequencies of gene combinations are defined according to their position on the same or distinct gametes, and linear functions of these provide the measures of linkage disequilibria. These concepts are utilized to derive the transitional behavior of the gene combinations frequencies and the linkage disequilibria in a finite monoecious population with random union of gametes for up to four loci. The transitions of lower-order disequilibria in a higher-order (more loci) setting involve the higher-order disequilibria which must be taken into account in arriving at the final (fixation) frequencies. The methods allow different initial conditions. Since corresponding data functions of the gene combination frequencies provide unbiased estimates of the parameters, estimators follow naturally.     

The effect of positive assortative mating at one locus on a second linked locus

Summary Considerations proceed from a model of positive assortative mating based on genotype at one locus, with an arbitrary number of alleles, assuming no selection, mutation, or migration, hypothetically infinite population size, and discrete non-overlapping generations. From these conditions, inferences are made about the genotypic structure at a linked locus, as well as about the corresponding 2-locus gametic structure.The following main results are presented: in the course of the generations, the genotypic structure at the second locus and the 2-locus gametic structure always tend to a limit responsive to the initial conditions concerning the joint genotypic structure at the two loci and the degree of assortativity and linkage. A complete, analytical representation of the limits is given. In particular, if assortative mating is only partial and at the same time linkage is not complete, a population is not able to maintain a permanent deviation of the gametic structure from linkage equilibrium, and thus the genotypic structure at the second locus tends to Hardy-Weinberg proportions. On the other hand, if initial linkage disequilibrium is combined with partial assortative mating and complete linkage (or with complete assortative mating and unlinked loci) the population maintains this disequilibrium and thus the genotypic structure at the second locus need not tend to Hardy-Weinberg proportions. It turns out that the conditions not only of complete linkage, but also of unlinked loci together with complete assortativity, imply no change in gametic structure from the initial structure.In order to demonstrate the influence of several parameters on the speed of convergence to and the magnitude of the respective limits, several graphs are included.     

Definition and Properties of Disequilibrium Statistics for Associations between Nuclear and Cytoplasmic Genotypes

We define and establish the interrelationships of four components of statistical association between a diploid nuclear gene and a uniparentally transmitted, haploid cytoplasmic gene: an allelic (gametic) disequilibrium (D), which measures associations between alleles at the two loci; and three genotypic disequilibria (D1, D2, D3), which measure associations between two cytotypes and the three respective nuclear backgrounds. We also consider an alternative set of measures, including D and the residual disequilibrium (d). The dynamics of these disequilibria are then examined under three conventional models of the mating system: (1) random mating; (2a) assortative mating without dominance (the "mixed-mating model"); and (2b) assortative mating with dominance ("O'Donald's model"). The trajectories of gametic disequilibria are similar to those for pairs of unlinked nuclear loci. The dynamics of genotypic disequilibria exhibit a variety of behaviors depending on the model and the initial conditions. Procedures for statistical estimation of cytonuclear disequilibria are developed and applied to several real and hypothetical data sets. Special attention is paid to the biological interpretations of various categories of allelic and genotypic disequilibria in hybrid zones. Genetic systems for which these statistics might be appropriate include nuclear genotype frequencies in conjunction with those for mitochondrial DNA, chloroplast DNA, or cytoplasmically inherited microorganisms.     

Incorporating genotypes of relatives into a test of linkage disequilibrium.

Genetic data from autosomal loci in diploids generally consist of genotype data for which no phase information is available, making it difficult to implement a test of linkage disequilibrium. In this paper, we describe a test of linkage disequilibrium based on an empirical null distribution of the likelihood of a sample. Information on the genotypes of related individuals is explicitly used to help reconstruct the gametic phase of the independent individuals. Simulation studies show that the present approach improves on estimates of linkage disequilibrium gathered from samples of completely independent individuals but only if some offspring are sampled together with their parents. The failure to incorporate some parents sharply decreases the sensitivity and accuracy of the test. Simulations also show that for multiallelic data (more than two alleles) our testing procedure is not as powerful as an exact test based on known haplotype frequencies, owing to the interaction between departure from Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium and linkage disequilibrium.     

On the Potential for Estimating the Effective Number of Breeders from Heterozygote-Excess in Progeny

The important parameter of effective population size is rarely estimable directly from demographic data. Indirect estimates of effective population size may be made from genetic data such as temporal variation of allelic frequencies or linkage disequilibrium in cohorts. We suggest here that an indirect estimate of the effective number of breeders might be based on the excess of heterozygosity expected in a cohort of progeny produced by a limited number of males and females. In computer simulations, heterozygote excesses for 30 unlinked loci having various numbers of alleles and allele-frequency profiles were obtained for cohorts produced by samples of breeders drawn from an age-structured population and having known variance in reproductive success and effective number. The 95% confidence limits around the estimate contained the true effective population size in 70 of 72 trials and the Spearman rank correlation of estimated and actual values was 0.991. An estimate based on heterozygote excess might have certain advantages over the previous estimates, requiring only single-locus and single-cohort data, but the sampling error among individuals and the effect of departures from random union of gametes still need to be explored.     

Tests for association of gene frequencies at several loci in random mating diploid populations.

Methods are outlined for analyzing data on genotype frequencies at several codominant loci in random mating diploid populations. Maximum likelihood (ML) methods are given for estimating chromosomal frequencies. Using these, a succession of models of assumed independence of gene frequency are fitted. These are based on those used in multi-dimensional contigency tables, and tests for association (linkage disequilibrium), made using likelihood ratios. The methods are illustrated with an example.     

Sample sizes required to detect linkage disequilibrium between two or three loci.

Estimates of the degree of nonrandom association among genes (linkage disequilibrium) can provide evidence of the role of natural selection in maintaining allozyme polymorphisms in natural populations. This paper outlines the maximum likelihood procedures for such estimates based on gametic or zygotic frequencies at the level of two loci. The analysis is extended to estimating disequilibrium between three loci. In particular, the question of the sampling requirements to detect different intensities of disequilibrium is considered. It is found that relatively large samples are required to detect nonrandom association, unless gene frequencies are intermediate and disequilibrium is relatively intense. This might be one reason why cases of linkage disequilibrium have so far proved to be the exception, rather than the rule, in population studies.     

Theoretical value of estimates of general combining ability in the autotetraploid crop

Summary The means of half-sib progenies have been indicated as selection criteria for intra-population improvement while the average of the means of full-sib progenies in diallel analyses have been proposed as predictors, in part, of the means of untested synthetic varieties. When these measures based on progeny means are expressed as deviations from a defined greater population of crosses, they are often termed the general combining ability (GCA). In this study the GCA estimates or a facsimile were theoretically investigated for the one locus, digene, autotetraploid model to verify the genetic basis and its value for selection and prediction in the presence of a naturally occurring phenomena of autopolyploids called gametic disequilibrium with three types of non-additive inheritance. Two breeding objectives were envisioned, the selection of best parents with recurrent selection based on GCA in the continued development of elite populations and the prediction of advanced generation synthetic variety performance. The first generation means of progenies with a potential bias due to gametic disequilibrium were compared to GCA estimation of same progenies in the absence of gametic disequilibrium. The results indicated that testcrossing plants to a population without gametic disequilibrium could be used for selection of best parents. The gametic disequilibrium in the cross may increase or depress selection response dependent on the array of genotypes which happen to be evaluated, on the type of genic action at the locus, and on the frequency of the desirable allele in the testor population. The GCA estimates for prediction of synthetic performance were potentially biased by gametic disequilibrium. An assumption of pollination by the same array of gametes was made for all plants, but obviously was unrealistic for GCA estimation with partial diallels, or with no selfing, and in other situations. The GCA estimate was shown to be an unreliable predictor of synthetic variety performance. When it was assumed that different plants were pollinated by different arrays of gametes, a more realistic situation, no genetic interpretation of GCA values was possible even with purely additive gene action at the locus.Cooperative investigation of the Alfalfa Production Research Unit, United States Department of Agriculture, Agricultural Research Service, and the Nevada Agricultural Experiment Station, Reno, Nevada     

A FORTRAN program for the calculation and analysis of two-locus linkage disequilibrium coefficients

Summary A FORTRAN program was written that calculates composite linkage disequilibrium coefficients from genotypic data. Chi-square tests determine whether coefficients calculated for allele and locus pairs are significantly greater than zero. A subroutine is provided that partitions the variance in linkage disequilibrium into within- and between-subpopulation components. Output obtained from analysis of allozyme data collected from natural subpopulations of the house fly (Musca domestica L.) are included to illustrate features of the program.Journal Paper No. J-11345 of the Iowa Agriculture and Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, Iowa. Project No. 2411     

A numerical solution to the equilibria of the two-locus two-allele selection model.

Examination of the equilibria of the standard two-locus two-allele selection model leads to the construction of a polynomial with coefficients derived from selective values in the genotypic fitness matrix. This polynomial can be partially factored algebraically and numerical techniques are available to extract the roots of the remainder. Each root provides a possible value of the disequilibrium coefficient and the gametic frequencies at equilibrium, and these can be readily checked for stability.     

Behavior of pairs of loci in finite monoecious populations

Transition equations are established for descent measures for pairs of loci in finite randomly mating monoecious populations. The two special cases of equal chance gamete formation and two gametes per parent are considered in detail. The descent measures allow genotypic frequencies to be found but are used mainly to evaluate three quadrigenic moments, including the variance of the linkage disequilibrium. Numerical properties of these moments are compared to previously reported values.     

Effective size of populations with heritable variation in fitness

The effective size of monogamous populations with heritable variation in fitness is formulated, and the expression obtained is compared with a published equation. It is shown that the published equation for dioecious populations is inappropriate for most animal and human populations, because the derivation is implicitly based on the assumption that zygotes are produced by random union of gametes, each from conceptual male and female gametic pools. A convenient equation for practical use is proposed, and the application is illustrated with the estimation of the effective size of a rural human community in Japan.     

Testing for clonal propagation

The conceptual basis for testing clonal propagation is reconsidered with the result that two steps need to be distinguished clearly: (1) specification of the characteristics of multilocus genotype frequencies that result from sexual reproduction together with the kinds of deviations from these characteristics that are produced by clonal propagation, and (2) a statistical method for detecting these deviations in random samples. It is pointed out that a meaningful characterization of sexual reproduction reflects the association of genes in (multilocus) genotypes within the bounds set by the underlying gene frequencies. An appropriate measure of relative gene association is developed which is equivalent to a multilocus generalization of the standardized gametic disequilibrium (linkage disequilibrium). Its application to the characterization of sexually produced multilocus genotypes is demonstrated. The resulting hypothesis on the frequency of a sexually produced genotype is tested with the help of the (significance) probability of obtaining at least two copies of the genotype in question in a random sample of a given size. If at least two copies of the genotype are observed in a sample, and if the probability is significant, then the hypothesis of sexual reproduction is rejected in favor of the assumption that all copies of the genotype belong to the same clone. Common testing approaches rest on the hypothesis of completely independent association of genes in genotypes and on the (significance) probability of obtaining at least as many copies of a genotype as observed in a sample. The validity of these approaches is discussed in relation to the above considerations and recommendations are set out for conducting appropriate tests.