Climatic control of upwelling variability along the western North-American coast

The high biological production of the California Current System (CCS) results from the seasonal development of equatorward alongshore winds that drive coastal upwelling. While several climatic fluctuation patterns influence the dynamics and biological productivity of the CCS, including the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO) and the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), the mechanisms of interaction between climatic oscillations and the CCS upwelling dynamics have remained obscure. Here, we use Singular Spectral Analysis (SSA) to reveal, for the first time, low-frequency concordance between the time series of climatic indices and upwelling intensity along the coast of western North America. Based on energy distributions in annual, semiannual and low-frequency signals, we can divide the coast into three distinct regions. While the annual upwelling signal dominates the energy spectrum elsewhere, low-frequency variability is maximal in the regions south of 33°N. Non-structured variability associated with storms and turbulent mixing is enhanced at northerly locations. We found that the low-frequency signal is significantly correlated with different climatic indices such as PDO, NPGO and ENSO with the correlation patterns being latitude-dependent. We also analyzed the correlations between this upwelling variability and sea surface temperature (SST) and sea level pressure (SLP) throughout the North Pacific to visualize and interpret the large-scale teleconnection dynamics in the atmosphere that drive the low-frequency coastal winds. These results provide new insights into the underlying mechanisms connecting climatic patterns with upwelling dynamics, which could enhance our prediction and forecast capabilities of the effects of future oceanographic and climatic variability in the CCS.     

Atmospheric teleconnection patterns associated with wheat stripe rust disease in North China

 Previous work has shown that long-term (>40 years) time series of wheat stripe rust disease from North China contain a signal related to the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). However, no cause-and-effect relationships or direct links between SOI and disease have been established. Because mid-latitude teleconnection patterns form important links between global atmospheric variations and regional weather anomalies, such as the Southern Oscillation, studies of such patterns could result in a better physical and biological interpretation for the SOI-disease association observed previously. We used cross-spectral analyses to determine if and on which time scales severity of stripe rust in five regions of North China between 1952 and 1990 was associated with fluctuations in four Northern Hemisphere teleconnection patterns. These included the Pacific/North American, the Western Atlantic, the Western Pacific, and the Eurasian patterns. The analysis showed consistent and significant (P≤0.10) coherence relationships between the Western Atlantic (WA) pattern and stripe rust severity at a periodicity of 3.00 years. The phase relationships showed that, at the 3.00-year periodicity, the WA series and the disease series were out of phase by about half a period in all five regions. This phase difference indicated that peaks in the WA series, which are associated with below-normal winter temperatures over much of China, coincided with troughs in the disease series (i.e. low disease severity), presumably because of the negative effect of low winter temperatures on survival of the stripe rust pathogen. The analysis further showed that the WA series and the SOI series were highly significantly (P≤0.01) coherent at a periodicity of 4.33 years, which could explain the association between SOI and stripe rust severity reported previously. Received: 12 February 1997 / Accepted: 18 May 1998     

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (Nilaparvata lugens Stål) and ENSO indices: implication for its medium- and long-term forecast

Teleconnection between the early immigration of brown planthopper (BPH) and El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) indices from January of two years previously to the current June was investigated to make long-term forecast. The teleconnection results were as follows: ENSO indices which were significantly correlated with the early immigration of BPH were primarily sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in N3, N4 and N3.4 regions, accounting for 71.8% of the total. Significant ENSO indices from two years and one year before the immigration events had a proportion of about 84%, while those in the current year only accounted for 16.7%. There was significantly negative correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region from two years before to the previous spring, whereas there was significantly positive correlation between these two factors during the period from the previous winter to the current spring. The significant correlation between the early immigration of BPH and SSTA in each Nino region in the last summer and autumn did not show any obvious tendencies. The relationship between the southern oscillation index (SOI) and the early immigration of BPH was opposite to that between the immigration and SSTA in each Nino region. The above mentioned significant ENSO indices were used as key factors to build forecasting models for the early immigration of BPH by step-wise multiple linear regression analysis. Finally, 12 integrated forecasting models were obtained, which could make predictions 3–27 months ahead and had a predictive accuracy of 88.9%.     

The Southern Oscillation and variations in waterfowl abundance in southeastern Australia

Mean sizes of duck hunters’ bags on the opening days of annual waterfowl seasons at selected wetlands in southeastern Australia, between 1972 and 1990, are correlated with an index of the Southern Oscillation (SOI). Simple correlations exist between bag sizes at the various sites, and the mean bag size in Victoria shows a positive relationship with that obtained at Barrenbox Swamp, New South Wales. Bag sizes are most significantly correlated with monthly SOI some 25–28 months before the eventual start of an open season. Interannual variations in rainfall in eastern Australia are generated by the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, which is monitored by the SOI, and the waterfowl populations respond to changing water and wetland availability. Accepting that annual bag sizes represent an index of waterfowl abundance, the regional population size may be related to climatic events associated with changes in SOI values. Further consideration of the SOI and indices of waterfowl abundance may allow variations in legislative or management options well in advance of individual open seasons.     

Links between large-scale anomalies, rainfall and wine quality in the Iberian Peninsula during the last three decades

Recent strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) signals have been identified in precipitation records from the Iberian Peninsula. Interannual association with ENSO accounts for more than half the total annual variance in selected stations of the south‐east, with ENSO leading rainfall by one year. In contrast, association with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) at the Westernmost stations is much lower (25%). The potential of simple linear models is tested in the ENSO‐sensitive area, suggesting high capability of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) for predicting interannual rainfall fluctuations (mainly droughts and floods). Wine quality is associated with several factors, e.g. grape variety, soil type and processing, which can be considered invariable, mainly due to the strict regulations imposed by the quality regulating councils. Climate, however, has a great influence on resulting wine quality, and represents the most important source of variability at both short (day‐to‐day) and long (interannual) time scales. Over the last 30 years, high‐quality harvests in the five main wine regions in Spain, show a high probability (P < 0.0002) of being associated with an El Niño event occurring the same year or the year before. NAO influence is not significant during the same period. Thus, apart from considering the role of local climatic conditions in certain regions, which favour the production of excellent wines, larger‐scale climatic phenomena appear responsible for the year‐to‐year variations in quality.     

Atmospheric forcing on chlorophyll concentration in the Mediterranean

Recent research suggests the coupling of climatic fluctuations and changes in biological indices that describe species richness, abundance and spatiotemporal distribution. In this study, large-scale modes of atmospheric variability over the northern hemisphere are associated with chlorophyll-a concentration in the Mediterranean. Sea level atmospheric pressure, air temperature, wind speed and precipitation are used to account for climatic and local weather effects, whereas sea surface temperature, sea surface height and salinity are employed to describe oceanic variation. Canonical Correlation Analysis was applied to relate chlorophyll concentration to the above-mentioned environmental variables, while correlation maps were also built to distinguish between localized and distant effects. Spectral analysis was used to identify common temporal cycles between chlorophyll concentration and each environmental variable. These cycles could be interpreted as mechanistic links between chlorophyll and large-scale atmospheric variability. Known teleconnection patterns such as the East Atlantic/Western Russian pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation, the Polar/Eurasian pattern, the East Pacific/North Pacific, the East Atlantic jet and the Mediterranean Oscillation are found to be the most important modes of atmospheric variability related to chlorophyll-a concentration and distribution. The areas that are mostly affected are near the coasts and areas of upwelling and gyre formation. The results also suggest that this influence may arise either through local effects of teleconnection patterns on oceanic features or large-scale changes superimposed onto the general circulation in the Mediterranean. Guest editor: V. D. Valavanis Essential Fish Habitat Mapping in the Mediterranean     

Large-scale climatic variability and radial increment variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> (L.) Karst. in central and northern Europe

High-frequency variation of Norway spruce radial increment [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and its dependence on various climatic variables was compared in stands across latitudinal and altitudinal transects in southwestern and eastern Germany, Norway, and Finland. The tested variables included local temperature and precipitation, northern hemisphere temperature anomalies, and the climatic teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic Jet, East Atlantic/West Russia, and Scandinavian patterns). Climatic impact on radial increment increased towards minimum and maximum values of the long-term temperature and precipitation regimes, i.e. trees growing under average conditions respond less strongly to climatic variation. Increment variation was clearly correlated with temperature. Warm Mays promoted radial increments in all regions. If the long-term average temperature sum at a stand was below 1,200-1,300 degree days, above average summer temperature increased radial increment. In regions with more temperate climate, water availability was also a growth-limiting factor. However, in those cases where absolute precipitation sum was clearly related to radial increment variation, its effect was dependent on temperature-induced water stress. The estimated dates of initiation and cessation of growing season and growing season length were not clearly related to annual radial increment. Significant correlations were found between radial increment and climatic teleconnection indices, especially with the winter, May and August North Atlantic Oscillation indices, but it is not easy to find a physiological interpretation for these findings.     

Non-stationary influence of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation and winter temperature on oak latewood growth in NW Iberian Peninsula

The properties of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), such as period, amplitude, and teleconnection strength to extratropical regions, have changed since the mid-1970s. ENSO affects the regional climatic regime in SW Europe, thus tree performance in the Iberian Peninsula could be affected by recent ENSO dynamics. We established four Quercus robur chronologies of earlywood and latewood widths in the NW Iberian Peninsula. The relationship between tree growth and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), the atmospheric expression of ENSO, showed that only latewood growth was correlated negatively with the SOI of the previous summer-autumn-winter. This relationship was non-stationary, with significant correlations only during the period 1952-1980; and also non-linear, with enhanced latewood growth only in La Ni?a years, i.e. years with a negative SOI index for the previous autumn. Non-linear relationship between latewood and SOI indicates an asymmetric influence of ENSO on tree performance, biassed towards negative SOI phases. During La Ni?a years, climate in the study area was warmer and wetter than during positive years, but only for 1952-1980. Winter temperatures became the most limiting factor for latewood growth since 1980, when mean regional temperatures increased by 1°C in comparison to previous periods. As a result, higher winter respiration rates, and the extension of the growing season, would probably cause an additional consumption of stored carbohydrates. The influence of ENSO and winter temperatures proved to be of great importance for tree growth, even at lower altitudes and under mild Atlantic climate in the NW Iberian Peninsula.     

Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan

Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.     

Environmental drivers of the anchovy/sardine complex in the Eastern Mediterranean

The anchovy/sardine complex is an important fishery resource in some of the largest upwelling systems in the world. Synchronous, but out of phase, fluctuations of the two species in distant parts of the oceans have prompted a number of studies dedicated to determining the phenomena, atmospheric and oceanic, responsible for the observed synchronicity and the biological mechanisms behind the population changes of the two species. Anchovy and sardine are of high commercial value for the fishing sector in Greece; this study investigates the impact of large-scale climatic indices on the anchovy/sardine complex in the Greek seas using fishery catches as a proxy for fish productivity. Time series of catches for both species were analysed for relationships with teleconnection indices and local environmental variability. The connection between the teleconnection indices and local weather/oceanic variation was also examined in an effort to describe physical mechanisms that link large-scale atmospheric patterns with anchovy and sardine. The West African Summer Monsoon, East Atlantic Jet and Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern exhibit coherent relationships with the catches of the two species. The first two aforementioned patterns are prominent atmospheric modes of variability during the summer months when sardine is spawning and anchovy juveniles are growing. PNA is related with El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) appears as a significant link between atmospheric and biological variability either because higher temperatures seem to be favouring sardine growth or because lower temperatures, characteristic of productivity-enhancing oceanic features, exert a positive influence on both species. However at a local scale, other parameters such as wind and mesoscale circulation describe air–sea variability affecting the anchovy/sardine complex. These relationships are non-linear and in agreement with results of previous studies stressing the importance of optimal environmental windows. The results also show differences in the response of the two species to environmental forcing and possible interactions between the two species. The nature of these phenomena, e.g., if the species interactions are direct through competition or indirect through the food web, remains to be examined.     

Relationship between fire,climate oscillations,and drought in British Columbia,Canada, 1920–2000

Climate oscillations such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) are known to affect temperature and precipitation regimes and fire in different regions of the world. Understanding the relationships between climate oscillations, drought, and area burned in the past is required for anticipating potential impacts of regional climate change and for effective wildfire‐hazard management. These relationships have been investigated for British Columbia (BC), Canada, either as part of national studies with coarse spatial resolution or for single ecosystems. Because of BC's complex terrain and strong climatic gradients, an investigation with higher spatial resolution may allow for a spatially complete but differentiated picture. In this study, we analyzed the annual proportion burned–climate oscillation–drought relationships for the province's 16 Biogeoclimatic Ecosystem Classification (BEC) zones. Analyses are based on a digital, spatially explicit fire database, climate oscillation indices, and monthly precipitation and temperature data with a spatial resolution of 400 m for the period 1920–2000. Results show that (1) fire variability is better related to summer drought than to climate oscillations, and that (2) fire variability is most strongly related to both, climate oscillations and summer drought in southeastern BC. The relationship of area burned and summer drought is strong for lower elevations in western BC as well. The influence of climate oscillations on drought is strongest and most extensive in winter and spring, with higher indices being related to drier conditions. Winter and spring PDO and additive winter and spring PDO+ENSO indices show BC's most extensive significant relationship to fire variability. Western BC is too wet to show a moisture deficit in summer that would increase annual area burned due to teleconnections.     

Influence of climate oscillations on dentinal deposition in teeth of Commerson's dolphin

Effects of climatic oscillations on populations in marine environments are produced mainly through the lower trophic levels. Marine mammals, as top predators, are affected indirectly by these fluctuations, showing variations in their survival, growth and reproduction. The main objective of this study was to determine whether we could detect the effect of climatic oscillations on Commerson's dolphins (Cephalorhynchus c. commersonii) off Tierra del Fuego, Argentina, by examining the presence and proportion of anomalous dentinal growth layer groups (GLGs). The relative deposition of anomalous GLGs was determined using calendar years from 1960 to 2005, and related to the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, and to mean annual sea surface temperatures (SST). Then, growth parameters between animals that did and did not show anomalous dentinal growth layer patterns in one or more of their GLGs were compared. The presence of anomalous GLGs was related to the SAM, increasing in frequency with negative values of the SAM. No relationship was found among anomalous GLGs, ENSO, and SST. There were no significant differences in growth parameters between animals with and without anomalous GLGs. Using recording structures such as teeth provided a unique way of reconstructing time series to evaluate the effects of these climatic patterns on a top predator species in an area where no similar studies have been conducted, primarily due to a lack of suitable long‐term data sets.     

Redundancy, synergism, and active inhibitory range of non-host volatiles in reducing pheromone attraction in European spruce bark beetle Ips typographus

Brandt's voles ( Microtus brandti ) are small native mammals that inhabit the grasslands of Inner Mongolia, China. The species is considered a pest, particularly during population outbreaks, which have increased in frequency since 1970 from 1 every 7 years to 1 every 3 to 5 years. Using historical records taken between 1948 and 1998, we found that there was significant correlation between years for which the monthly averages of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) were consistently high, and years in which outbreaks occurred. Also there was a tendency for outbreaks not to occur in years with precipitation above or below average. For some years at some sites, annual or biannual estimates are available for the density of Brandt's vole populations. We found that the seasonal rate of increase over the non-breeding season from autumn to spring was negatively correlated with the density in autumn. The rate of increase over the breeding season from spring to autumn was independent of the density in spring but instead, reflects the species' preference for habitat with short, sparse grass; populations do not persist in highly degraded grasslands or in tall, dense grassland. The link between outbreaks and climatic indices, and the numerical response of Brandt's voles to particular habitat characteristics, suggest that current grazing intensity tends to maintain grass at low height in years with average precipitation. The substantial increase in livestock numbers over the last 50 years appears to have increased the number of years when the balance of grazing and plant growth favours high rates of increase in Brandt's vole populations, and hence, there has been an increase in the frequency of outbreaks.     

Short-Term Effect of El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation on Pediatric Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Shenzhen,China

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) was an emerging viral infectious disease in recent years in Shenzhen. The underlying risk factors have not yet been systematically examined. This study analyzed the short-term effect of El Niño-Southern Oscillation on pediatric HFMD in Shenzhen, China. Daily count of HFMD among children aged below 15 years old, Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), and weather variables were collected to construct the time series. A distributed lag non-linear model was applied to investigate the effect of daily SOI on pediatric HFMD occurrence during 2008–2010. We observed an acute effect of SOI variation on HFMD occurrence. The extremely high SOI (SOI = 45, with 0 as reference) was associated with increased HFMD, with the relative risk (RR) being 1.66 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.34–2.04). Further analyses of the association between HFMD and daily mean temperature and relative humidity supported the correlation between pediatric HFMD and SOI. Meteorological factors might be important predictors of pediatric HFMD occurrence in Shenzhen.     

Climate-growth relationships of Pinus pseudostrobus from a tropical mountain cloud forest in northeast Mexico

Tropical Mountain Cloud Forests (TMCF) occur within narrow elevational limits with very specific climatic conditions; this type of vegetation is among the most vulnerable terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. The present study aims to analyze the local and regional climatic response of tree-ring widths of Pinus pseudostrobus at "El Cielo" Biosphere Reserve (CBR) over a 66-year period (1950–2016). We also investigated the temporal stability of the climate-growth response in four 20 years sub-periods (1950–1969, 1970–1989, 1990–2009, and 1997–2016). The results of the climate-growth analyses over the full-time period indicate a positive correlation with precipitation from previous-year November to current-year May and a negative correlation with maximum temperature and evaporation from previous-year December to current-year April and current-year January to May, respectively. We found a positive correlation with April to June PDSI and no correlation with minimum temperature. Radial growth was correlated with the climate of northeastern Mexico (i.e. Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, and Tamaulipas) and with coupled-ocean atmosphere climate modes, such as the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Correlation analyses for different periods indicate changes over time in the sensitivity of trees to climatic variability and broad-scale atmospheric circulation patterns such as PDO and AMO. Compared to the full-time period analyses the response of radial-growth to precipitation and PDSI increased in 30 and 48 % in the last 20 years, respectively.     

Combined effect of ENSO and SAM on the population dynamics of the invasive yellowjacket wasp in central Chile

The population dynamics of the yellowjacket wasp (Vespula germanica Fabricus) in central Chile were analyzed for the first time. Using a simple Ricker logistic model and adding the effects of local weather variables (temperature and precipitation) and large-scale climate phenomena as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we modeled the interannual fluctuations in nest density. The best model according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) included 1-year-lag negative feedback combined with the positive additive effects of ENSO and SAM. According to this model, yellowjacket nest density was favored by warm and dry winters, which probably influenced the survival of overwintering queens. Large-scale climatic variables [Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SAM] described the effect of exogenous factors in wasp fluctuations better than local weather variables did. Our results emphasize the usefulness of climate indices and simple theoretical-based models in insect ecological research.     

Host-parasite interactions and global climate oscillations

It is suspected that host-parasite interactions are influenced by climatic oscillations such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). However, the effects of climatic oscillations on host-parasite interactions have never been investigated. A long-term (1982-1999) dataset of the host snail Lymnaea stagnalis and trematode metacercariae infection has been collected for Lake Chany in Western Siberia. Using this dataset, we estimated the impact of the NAO on the population dynamics of hosts and parasites as well as their interactions. The results of general linear models showed that the abundance of dominant parasite species and the total parasite abundance significantly increased with NAO, with the exception of Moliniella anceps. Other climatic and biological factors were relatively weak to explain the abundance. There was no significant relationship between NAO and the population density of host snails. The prevalence of infection was related to the total abundance of parasites, but not to the NAO. Thus, the responses to the NAO differed between the host and parasites, indicating mismatching in host-parasite interactions. Therefore, climatic oscillations, such as the NAO, influence common parasitism.     

Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long‐term mark‐recapture studies (1956–1967 and 1993–2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9‐state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year''s SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population.     

Changes in spring arrival of Nearctic-Neotropical migrants attributed to multiscalar climate

Climate-related changes associated with the California marine ecosystem have been documented; however, there are no studies assessing changes in terrestrial vertebrate phenology on the Pacific coast of western North America. We analyze the spring phenology of 21 Nearctic-Neotropical migratory songbird species in central and northern CA. Using observational and banding data at multiple sites, we evaluate evidence for a change in arrival timing being linked to either nonclimatic or multiscalar climatic explanations. Using correlation analysis, of the 13 species with a significant ( P <0.10) change in arrival, the arrival timing of 10 species (77%) is associated with both temperature and a large-scale climate oscillation index (El Niño Southern Oscillation, ENSO; North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO; and/or Pacific Decadal Oscillation, PDO) at least at one location. Eight of the 13 species (62%) are advancing their migratory timing. All species for which spring arrival is associated with climate at multiple locations are exhibiting changes ( n =5) and all species lacking evidence for association between migration phenology and climate ( n =3) exhibit no change. Migrants tend to arrive earlier in association with warmer temperatures, positive NAO indices, and stronger ENSO indices. Twelve species negatively correlate ( P ≤0.05) with local or regional temperature at least at one location; five species negatively correlate with ENSO. Eleven species' arrival is correlated ( P ≤0.05) with NAO; 10 are negatively associated. After an exhaustive literature search, this is apparently the first documentation of an association between NAO and migratory phenology in western North America.     

Paleoclimate of La Guajira, Colombia; by the growth rings of Capparis odoratissima (Capparidaceae)

There is great concern about the effect of climate change in arid and subarid areas of the tropics. Climate change combined with other anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, fires and over-grazing can accelerate their degradation and, consequently, the increases in losses of biological and economic productivity. Climate models, both local and global, predict that rainfall in the arid Peninsula of La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean would be reduced and temperature would be increased as a result of climate change. However, as there are only suitable climate records since 1972, it is not possible to verify if, indeed, this is happening. To try to verify the hypothesis of reducing rainfall and rising temperatures we developed a growth ring chronology of Capparis odoratissima in the Middle Peninsula of La Guajira with 17 trees and 45 series which attain 48 years back. We use standard dendrochronological methods that showed statistically significant linear relationship with local climatic variables such as air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), annual precipitation and wind speed; we also reach to successful relationship of the chronology with global climatic variables as the indices SOI and MEI of the ENSO phenomenon. The transfer functions estimated with the time series (1955 and 2003) do not showed statistically significant trends, indicating that during this period of time the annual precipitation or temperatures have not changed. The annual nature of C. odoratissima growth rings, the possibility of cross-dated among the samples of this species, and the high correlation with local and global climatic variables indicate a high potential of this species for dendrochronological studies in this part of the American continent.