The transparency,reliability and utility of tropical rainforest land‐use and land‐cover change models

Land‐use and land‐cover (LULC) change is one of the largest drivers of biodiversity loss and carbon emissions globally. We use the tropical rainforests of the Amazon, the Congo basin and South‐East Asia as a case study to investigate spatial predictive models of LULC change. Current predictions differ in their modelling approaches, are highly variable and often poorly validated. We carried out a quantitative review of 48 modelling methodologies, considering model spatio‐temporal scales, inputs, calibration and validation methods. In addition, we requested model outputs from each of the models reviewed and carried out a quantitative assessment of model performance for tropical LULC predictions in the Brazilian Amazon. We highlight existing shortfalls in the discipline and uncover three key points that need addressing to improve the transparency, reliability and utility of tropical LULC change models: (1) a lack of openness with regard to describing and making available the model inputs and model code; (2) the difficulties of conducting appropriate model validations; and (3) the difficulty that users of tropical LULC models face in obtaining the model predictions to help inform their own analyses and policy decisions. We further draw comparisons between tropical LULC change models in the tropics and the modelling approaches and paradigms in other disciplines, and suggest that recent changes in the climate change and species distribution modelling communities may provide a pathway that tropical LULC change modellers may emulate to further improve the discipline. Climate change models have exerted considerable influence over public perceptions of climate change and now impact policy decisions at all political levels. We suggest that tropical LULC change models have an equally high potential to influence public opinion and impact the development of land‐use policies based on plausible future scenarios, but, to do that reliably may require further improvements in the discipline.     

Modelling as a tool to redesign livestock farming systems: a literature review

Livestock farming has recently come under close scrutiny, in response especially to environmental issues. Farmers are encouraged to redesign their livestock farming systems in depth to improve their sustainability. Assuming that modelling can be a relevant tool to address such systemic changes, we sought to answer the following question: ‘How can livestock farming systems be modelled to help farmers redesign their whole farming systems?’ To this end, we made a literature review of the models of livestock farming systems published from 2000 to mid-2009 (n = 79). We used an analysis grid based on three considerations: (i) system definition, (ii) the intended use of the model and (iii) the way in which farmers’ decision-making processes were represented and how agricultural experts and farmers were involved in the modelling processes. Consistent rationales in approaches to supporting changes in livestock farming were identified in three different groups of models, covering 83% of the whole set. These could be defined according to (i) the way in which farmers’ decisions were represented and (ii) the model's type of contribution to supporting changes. The first type gathered models that dynamically simulated the system according to different management options; the farmers’ decision-making processes are assumed to consist in choosing certain values for management factors. Such models allow long-term simulations and endorse different disciplinary viewpoints, but the farmers are weakly involved in their design. Models of the second type can indicate the best combination of farm activities under given constraints, provided the farmers’ objectives are profit maximisation. However, when used to support redesigning processes, they address neither how to implement the optimal solution nor its long-term consequences. Models of the third type enable users to dynamically simulate different options for the farming system, the management of which is assumed to be planned according to the farmers’ general objectives. Although more comprehensive, these models do not easily integrate different disciplinary viewpoints and different subsystems, which limits their usefulness as support tools for redesigning processes. Finally, we concluded about what specific requirements should be for modelling approaches if farmers were to be supported in redesigning their whole livestock farming systems using models.     

A metamemory perspective on odor naming and identification

A metacognitive perspective is utilized to elucidate why it is so difficult to name common odors and what characterizes the subjective knowledge people have about their actual odor knowledge. Odor-naming failures are often accompanied by strong feelings of knowing (FOK) or feelings of imminent retrieval of what it is that smells. The paper's two experiments investigate FOK judgements and tip of the tongue (TOT) experiences for odor and person names. The data indicate that our inability to correctly name odors are typically not due to the often proposed uniquely poor association between odors and their proper names, but rather due to failures to identify the odors, that is, failures to know 'what it is'. It was also found that (i) TOT experiences are very unusual for odor names and more so than for person names; (ii) FOK judgements about odor names are significantly less predictive of later retrieval than equivalent judgements about names of persons; (iii) FOK judgements were highly correlated with the familiarity of the cue (odor or picture of famous person), rendering some support for the idea that FOK judgements are based on the perceived familiarity of the cue triggering the FOK; and (iv) the idea that FOK judgements are based on the amount of available information about the sought-for memory (accessibility theory) was also supported.     

Practical activation and retention of locomotion constraints in neuromusculoskeletal control system models

Two approaches are discussed in the treatment of locomotion constraints in neuromusculoskeletal control system models: (i) the modelling of viscoelastic environmental contact points to avoid the impact problem, and the subsequent reduction of the state-space dimension by elimination of superfluous generalized coordinates; and (ii) the computation of instantaneous velocity changes occurring during the impact, and the subsequent computation of constraint forces which are such that the constraints remain satisfied for the period of their retention. It is shown that the latter approach is computationally more efficient. Detailed algorithms are presented and their implementation is demonstrated by an example.     

Pattern-oriented modelling: a 'multi-scope' for predictive systems ecology

Modern ecology recognizes that modelling systems across scales and at multiple levels-especially to link population and ecosystem dynamics to individual adaptive behaviour-is essential for making the science predictive. 'Pattern-oriented modelling' (POM) is a strategy for doing just this. POM is the multi-criteria design, selection and calibration of models of complex systems. POM starts with identifying a set of patterns observed at multiple scales and levels that characterize a system with respect to the particular problem being modelled; a model from which the patterns emerge should contain the right mechanisms to address the problem. These patterns are then used to (i) determine what scales, entities, variables and processes the model needs, (ii) test and select submodels to represent key low-level processes such as adaptive behaviour, and (iii) find useful parameter values during calibration. Patterns are already often used in these ways, but a mini-review of applications of POM confirms that making the selection and use of patterns more explicit and rigorous can facilitate the development of models with the right level of complexity to understand ecological systems and predict their response to novel conditions.     

Process evaluation of appreciative inquiry to translate pain management evidence into pediatric nursing practice

Background

Current healthcare systems have extended the evidence-based medicine (EBM) approach to health policy and delivery decisions, such as access-to-care, healthcare funding and health program continuance, through attempts to integrate valid and reliable evidence into the decision making process. These policy decisions have major impacts on society and have high personal and financial costs associated with those decisions. Decision models such as these function under a shared assumption of rational choice and utility maximization in the decision-making process.

Discussion

We contend that health policy decision makers are generally unable to attain the basic goals of evidence-based decision making (EBDM) and evidence-based policy making (EBPM) because humans make decisions with their naturally limited, faulty, and biased decision-making processes. A cognitive information processing framework is presented to support this argument, and subtle cognitive processing mechanisms are introduced to support the focal thesis: health policy makers' decisions are influenced by the subjective manner in which they individually process decision-relevant information rather than on the objective merits of the evidence alone. As such, subsequent health policy decisions do not necessarily achieve the goals of evidence-based policy making, such as maximizing health outcomes for society based on valid and reliable research evidence.

Summary

In this era of increasing adoption of evidence-based healthcare models, the rational choice, utility maximizing assumptions in EBDM and EBPM, must be critically evaluated to ensure effective and high-quality health policy decisions. The cognitive information processing framework presented here will aid health policy decision makers by identifying how their decisions might be subtly influenced by non-rational factors. In this paper, we identify some of the biases and potential intervention points and provide some initial suggestions about how the EBDM/EBPM process can be improved.     

Review: To be or not to be an identifiable model. Is this a relevant question in animal science modelling?

What is a good (useful) mathematical model in animal science? For models constructed for prediction purposes, the question of model adequacy (usefulness) has been traditionally tackled by statistical analysis applied to observed experimental data relative to model-predicted variables. However, little attention has been paid to analytic tools that exploit the mathematical properties of the model equations. For example, in the context of model calibration, before attempting a numerical estimation of the model parameters, we might want to know if we have any chance of success in estimating a unique best value of the model parameters from available measurements. This question of uniqueness is referred to as structural identifiability; a mathematical property that is defined on the sole basis of the model structure within a hypothetical ideal experiment determined by a setting of model inputs (stimuli) and observable variables (measurements). Structural identifiability analysis applied to dynamic models described by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) is a common practice in control engineering and system identification. This analysis demands mathematical technicalities that are beyond the academic background of animal science, which might explain the lack of pervasiveness of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling. To fill this gap, in this paper we address the analysis of structural identifiability from a practitioner perspective by capitalizing on the use of dedicated software tools. Our objectives are (i) to provide a comprehensive explanation of the structural identifiability notion for the community of animal science modelling, (ii) to assess the relevance of identifiability analysis in animal science modelling and (iii) to motivate the community to use identifiability analysis in the modelling practice (when the identifiability question is relevant). We focus our study on ODE models. By using illustrative examples that include published mathematical models describing lactation in cattle, we show how structural identifiability analysis can contribute to advancing mathematical modelling in animal science towards the production of useful models and, moreover, highly informative experiments via optimal experiment design. Rather than attempting to impose a systematic identifiability analysis to the modelling community during model developments, we wish to open a window towards the discovery of a powerful tool for model construction and experiment design.     

Prediction and prenosological diagnostics of heart diseases based on energy characteristics of acupuncture points and fuzzy logic

Many theories of reflexology use ancient concepts which do not coincide with the modern medical terminology of anatomy, physiology and biophysics. This substantially reduces the trust of physicians in reflexology methods. During this research, several mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biological active points of meridian structures have been proposed. The analysis of these models allows the specification of a list of heart diseases for which reflex diagnostics and reflex therapy methods are most effective and also allows increasing the effectiveness of these procedures. It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained using fuzzy logic decision making.     

Prediction and prenosological diagnostics of heart diseases based on energy characteristics of acupuncture points and fuzzy logic

Many theories of reflexology use ancient concepts which do not coincide with the modern medical terminology of anatomy, physiology and biophysics. This substantially reduces the trust of physicians in reflexology methods. During this research, several mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biological active points of meridian structures have been proposed. The analysis of these models allows the specification of a list of heart diseases for which reflex diagnostics and reflex therapy methods are most effective and also allows increasing the effectiveness of these procedures. It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained using fuzzy logic decision making.     

The role of mathematical models of host-pathogen interactions for livestock health and production - a review

Compared with the application of mathematical models to study human diseases, models that describe animal responses to pathogen challenges are relatively rare. The aim of this review is to explain and show the role of mathematical host-pathogen interaction models in providing underpinning knowledge for improving animal health and sustaining livestock production. Existing host-pathogen interaction models can be assigned to one of three categories: (i) models of the infection and immune system dynamics, (ii) models that describe the impact of pathogen challenge on health, survival and production and (iii) models that consider the co-evolution of host and pathogen. State-of-the-art approaches are presented and discussed for models belonging to the first two categories only, as they concentrate on the host-pathogen dynamics within individuals. Models of the third category fall more into the class of epidemiological models, which deserve a review by themselves. An extensive review of published models reveals a rich spectrum of methodologies and approaches adopted in different modelling studies, and a strong discrepancy between models concerning diseases in animals and models aimed at tackling diseases in humans (most of which belong to the first category), with the latter being generally more sophisticated. The importance of accounting for the impact of infection not only on health but also on production poses a considerable challenge to the study of host-pathogen interactions in livestock. This has led to relatively simplistic representations of host-pathogen interaction in existing models for livestock diseases. Although these have proven appropriate for investigating hypotheses concerning the relationships between health and production traits, they do not provide predictions of an animal's response to pathogen challenge of sufficient accuracy that would be required for the design of appropriate disease control strategies. A synthesis between the modelling methodologies adopted in categories 1 and 2 would therefore be desirable. The progress achieved in mathematical modelling to study immunological processes relevant to human diseases, together with the current advances in the generation and analysis of biological data related to animal diseases, offers a great opportunity to develop a new generation of host-pathogen interaction models that take on a fundamental role in the study and control of disease in livestock.     

Different arguments,same conclusions: how is action against invasive alien species justified in the context of European policy?

The prevention and management of invasive alien species (IAS) has become a high priority in European environmental policy. At the same time, ways of evaluating IAS continue to be a topic of lively debate. In particular, it is far from clear how directly policy makers’ value judgements are linked to the European (EU) policy against IAS. We examine the arguments used to support value judgements of both alien species and invasive alien species as well as the relation between these value judgements and the policy against IAS being developed at European level. Our study is based on 17 semi-structured interviews with experts from EU policy making and from the EU member states Austria, Belgium, Germany and Hungary. We found that our interviewees conceived of IAS in very different ways, expressed a variety of visions of biodiversity and ecosystem services, and adhered to widely different values expressed in their perceptions of IAS and the impacts of IAS. However, only some of these conceptualizations and value judgements are actually addressed in the rationale given in the preamble to the European IAS Regulation. Although value judgements about IAS differed, there was considerable agreement regarding the kind of action to be taken against them.     

采用最小二乘支持向量机的青霉素发酵过程建模研究

生化过程通常是严重非线性和时变的复杂动态系统,而且重要过程参数缺少在线测量仪表,对其建立机理模型往往非常耗时和困难。采用最小二乘支持向量机(LS_SVM)并以Pensim仿真平台为例对青霉素发酵这一典型生化过程进行建模研究。给出了LS_SVM参数的调整策略和分析结果,建立了青霉素产物浓度、菌体浓度和底物浓度等重要过程变量的在线预报模型。仿真结果表明用LS_SVM建立的在线预报模型拟合误差小,推广性能好,可以作为发酵过程的进一步控制和优化的参考依据。     

Prediction of gastric ulcers based on the change in electrical resistance of acupuncture points using fuzzy logic decision-making

Many theories of reflexology use ancient concepts which do not coincide with the modern medical terminology of anatomy, physiology and biophysics. This substantially reduces the trust of physicians in reflexology methods. During this research, several mathematical models for the interaction of the internal and biological active points of meridian structures have been proposed. The analysis of these models allows the specification of a list of gastric diseases for which reflex diagnostics and reflex therapy methods are most effective and also allows increasing the effectiveness of these procedures. It is shown that good results for the prediction and early diagnosis of diseases from the reaction energy of biologically active points (acupuncture points) are obtained using fuzzy logic decision making.     

HIV Treatment as Prevention: Principles of Good HIV Epidemiology Modelling for Public Health Decision-Making in All Modes of Prevention and Evaluation

Public health responses to HIV epidemics have long relied on epidemiological modelling analyses to help prospectively project and retrospectively estimate the impact, cost-effectiveness, affordability, and investment returns of interventions, and to help plan the design of evaluations. But translating model output into policy decisions and implementation on the ground is challenged by the differences in background and expectations of modellers and decision-makers. As part of the PLoS Medicine Collection “Investigating the Impact of Treatment on New HIV Infections”—which focuses on the contribution of modelling to current issues in HIV prevention—we present here principles of “best practice” for the construction, reporting, and interpretation of HIV epidemiological models for public health decision-making on all aspects of HIV. Aimed at both those who conduct modelling research and those who use modelling results, we hope that the principles described here will become a shared resource that facilitates constructive discussions about the policy implications that emerge from HIV epidemiology modelling results, and that promotes joint understanding between modellers and decision-makers about when modelling is useful as a tool in quantifying HIV epidemiological outcomes and improving prevention programming.     

Notions on the Design and Use of an Ideal Regional or Global LCA Database

Goal, Scope and Background

More and more national and regional life cycle assessment (LCA) databases are being established satisfying the increasing demand on LCA in policy making (e.g. Integrated Product Policy, IPP) and in industry. In order to create harmonised datasets in such unified databases, a common understanding and common rules are required. This paper describes major requirements on the way towards an ideal national background LCA database in terms of co-operation, but also in terms of life cycle inventory analysis (LCI) and impact assessment (LCIA) methodology.

Methods

A classification of disputed methodological issues is made according to their consensus potential. In LCI, three main areas of dissent are identified where consensus seems hardly possible, namely system modelling (consequential versus attributional), allocation (including recycling) and reporting (transparency and progressiveness). In LCIA the time aspect is added to the well-known value judgements of the weighting step.

Results and Discussions

It is concluded that LCA methodology should rather allow for plurality than to urge harmonisation in any case. A series of questions is proposed to identify the most appropriate content of the LCA background database or the most appropriate LCI dataset. The questions help to identify the best suited approach in modelling the product system in general and multioutput and recycling processes in particular. They additionally help to clarify the position with regard to time preferences in LCIA. Intentionally, the answers to these questions are not attributed to particular goal and scope definitions, although some recommendations and clarifying explanations are provided.

Recommendations and Perspective

It is concluded that there is not one single ideal background database content. Value judgements are also present in LCI modelling and require pluralistic solutions; solutions possibly based on the same primary data. It is recommended to focus the methodological discussion on aspects where consensus is within reach, sensible and of added value for all parties.

     

Models for navigating biological complexity in breeding improved crop plants

Progress in breeding higher-yielding crop plants would be greatly accelerated if the phenotypic consequences of making changes to the genetic makeup of an organism could be reliably predicted. Developing a predictive capacity that scales from genotype to phenotype is impeded by biological complexities associated with genetic controls, environmental effects and interactions among plant growth and development processes. Plant modelling can help navigate a path through this complexity. Here we profile modelling approaches for complex traits at gene network, organ and whole plant levels. Each provides a means to link phenotypic consequence to changes in genomic regions via stable associations with model coefficients. A unifying feature of the models is the relatively coarse level of granularity they use to capture system dynamics. Much of the fine detail is not directly required. Robust coarse-grained models might be the tool needed to integrate phenotypic and molecular approaches to plant breeding.     

Benchmarking novel approaches for modelling species range dynamics

Increasing biodiversity loss due to climate change is one of the most vital challenges of the 21st century. To anticipate and mitigate biodiversity loss, models are needed that reliably project species’ range dynamics and extinction risks. Recently, several new approaches to model range dynamics have been developed to supplement correlative species distribution models (SDMs), but applications clearly lag behind model development. Indeed, no comparative analysis has been performed to evaluate their performance. Here, we build on process‐based, simulated data for benchmarking five range (dynamic) models of varying complexity including classical SDMs, SDMs coupled with simple dispersal or more complex population dynamic models (SDM hybrids), and a hierarchical Bayesian process‐based dynamic range model (DRM). We specifically test the effects of demographic and community processes on model predictive performance. Under current climate, DRMs performed best, although only marginally. Under climate change, predictive performance varied considerably, with no clear winners. Yet, all range dynamic models improved predictions under climate change substantially compared to purely correlative SDMs, and the population dynamic models also predicted reasonable extinction risks for most scenarios. When benchmarking data were simulated with more complex demographic and community processes, simple SDM hybrids including only dispersal often proved most reliable. Finally, we found that structural decisions during model building can have great impact on model accuracy, but prior system knowledge on important processes can reduce these uncertainties considerably. Our results reassure the clear merit in using dynamic approaches for modelling species’ response to climate change but also emphasize several needs for further model and data improvement. We propose and discuss perspectives for improving range projections through combination of multiple models and for making these approaches operational for large numbers of species.     

Strategies for integrating disparate social information

Social information use is widespread in the animal kingdom, helping individuals rapidly acquire useful knowledge and adjust to novel circumstances. In humans, the highly interconnected world provides ample opportunities to benefit from social information but also requires navigating complex social environments with people holding disparate or conflicting views. It is, however, still largely unclear how people integrate information from multiple social sources that (dis)agree with them, and among each other. We address this issue in three steps. First, we present a judgement task in which participants could adjust their judgements after observing the judgements of three peers. We experimentally varied the distribution of this social information, systematically manipulating its variance (extent of agreement among peers) and its skewness (peer judgements clustering either near or far from the participant''s judgement). As expected, higher variance among peers reduced their impact on behaviour. Importantly, observing a single peer confirming a participant''s own judgement markedly decreased the influence of other—more distant—peers. Second, we develop a framework for modelling the cognitive processes underlying the integration of disparate social information, combining Bayesian updating with simple heuristics. Our model accurately accounts for observed adjustment strategies and reveals that people particularly heed social information that confirms personal judgements. Moreover, the model exposes strong inter-individual differences in strategy use. Third, using simulations, we explore the possible implications of the observed strategies for belief updating. These simulations show how confirmation-based weighting can hamper the influence of disparate social information, exacerbate filter bubble effects and deepen group polarization. Overall, our results clarify what aspects of the social environment are, and are not, conducive to changing people''s minds.