Case study of the implications of climate change for lichen diversity and distributions

There is ample evidence for species distributional changes in response to recent climate change, but most studies are biased toward better known taxa. Thus, an integrated approach is needed that includes the “cryptic diversity” represented partly by lichens, which are among the most sensitive organisms to environmental change due to their physiological characteristics. The use of functional traits and ecological attributes may improve the interpretation of how species respond to climate change. Thus, we quantified the future climate change impacts on 41 lichen species distributed in the Iberian Peninsula using ensemble climatic suitability maps (derived from generalized linear and generalized additive models, and classification and regression tree analysis) and different metrics. We also determined the lichen traits/attributes that might be related to a shared response to climate change. The results indicated a loss of bioclimatic space for 75% of the species studied and an increase for 10 species, especially in Mediterranean ones. Most of the species that will lose more than 70% of their current modeled distribution area comprised big macrolichens with cyanobacteria as the photobiont, thereby indicating a great biomass loss in forests, which might affect nutrient cycles. We also found that the predicted distributions were trait-related. Smaller species, green-algae lichens, and saxicolous and epiphyte species will respond better to future climate change. The results of this type of study may help to identify the species that are most vulnerable to climate change and facilitate the development of conservation measures to avoid their decline.     

Dynamics of cover, UV-protective pigments, and quantum yield in biological soil crust communities of an undisturbed Mojave Desert shrubland

Biological soil crusts are an integral part of dryland ecosystems. We monitored the cover of lichens and mosses, cyanobacterial biomass, concentrations of UV-protective pigments in both free-living and lichenized cyanobacteria, and quantum yield in the soil lichen species Collema in an undisturbed Mojave Desert shrubland. During our sampling time, the site received historically high and low levels of precipitation, whereas temperatures were close to normal. Lichen cover, dominated by Collema tenax and C. coccophorum, and moss cover, dominated by Syntrichia caninervis, responded to both increases and decreases in precipitation. This finding for Collema spp. at a hot Mojave Desert site is in contrast to a similar study conducted at a cool desert site on the Colorado Plateau in SE Utah, USA, where Collema spp. cover dropped in response to elevated temperatures, but did not respond to changes in rainfall. The concentrations of UV-protective pigments in free-living cyanobacteria at the Mojave Desert site were also strongly and positively related to rainfall received between sampling times (R² values ranged from 0.78 to 0.99). However, pigment levels in the lichenized cyanobacteria showed little correlation with rainfall. Quantum yield in Collema spp. was closely correlated with rainfall. Climate models in this region predict a 3.5–4.0 °C rise in temperature and a 15–20% decline in winter precipitation by 2099. Based on our data, this rise in temperature is unlikely to have a strong effect on the dominant species of the soil crusts. However, the predicted drop in precipitation will likely lead to a decrease in soil lichen and moss cover, and high stress or mortality in soil cyanobacteria as levels of UV-protective pigments decline. In addition, surface-disturbing activities (e.g., recreation, military activities, fire) are rapidly increasing in the Mojave Desert, and these disturbances quickly remove soil lichens and mosses. These stresses combined are likely to lead to shifts in species composition and the local extirpation of some lichen or moss species. As these organisms are critical components of nutrient cycling, soil fertility, and soil stability, such changes are likely to reverberate throughout these ecosystems.     

Life form and water source interact to determine active time and environment in cryptogams: an example from the maritime Antarctic

Antarctica, with its almost pristine conditions and relatively simple vegetation, offers excellent opportunities to investigate the influence of environmental factors on species performance, such information being crucial if the effects of possible climate change are to be understood. Antarctic vegetation is mainly cryptogamic. Cryptogams are poikilohydric and are only metabolically and photosynthetically active when hydrated. Activity patterns of the main life forms present, bryophytes (10 species, ecto- and endohydric), lichens (5 species) and phanerogams (2 species), were monitored for 21 days using chlorophyll a fluorescence as an indicator of metabolic activity and, therefore, of water regime at a mesic (hydration by meltwater) and a xeric (hydration by precipitation) site on Léonie Island/West Antarctic Peninsula (67°36′S). Length of activity depended mainly on site and form of hydration. Plants at the mesic site that were hydrated by meltwater were active for long periods, up to 100 % of the measurement period, whilst activity was much shorter at the xeric site where hydration was entirely by precipitation. There were also differences due to life form, with phanerogams and mesic bryophytes being most active and lichens generally much less so. The length of the active period for lichens was longer than in continental Antarctica but shorter than in the more northern Antarctic Peninsula. Light intensity when hydrated was positively related to the length of the active period. High activity species were strongly coupled to the incident light whilst low activity species were active under lower light levels and essentially uncoupled from incident light. Temperatures were little different between sites and also almost identical to temperatures, when active, for lichens in continental and peninsular Antarctica. Gradients in vegetation cover and growth rates across Antarctica are, therefore, not likely to be due to differences in temperature but more likely to the length of the hydrated (active) period. The strong effect on activity of the mode of hydration and the life form, plus the uncoupling from incident light for less active species, all make modelling of vegetation change with climate a more difficult exercise.     

Interactions among species with contrasting dispersal modes explain distributions for epiphytic lichens

Understanding how the biodiversity response to climate change will be modified at ecological scales, e.g. by species interactions, is a major challenge. Lichen epiphytes – the close interdependent relationship between a heterotrophic fungus and photosynthetic partner (photobiont) – are used here to explore how interaction regimes (between lichen species, and between lichens and their photobionts) explain distribution patterns along spatial climatic gradients. To do this we tested field evidence for the ‘core‐fringe hypothesis’, which proposes a facilitative interaction; sexually‐reproducing and spore‐dispersed lichens with a requirement for resynthesis with a compatible photobiont (Nostoc) are facilitated by the prior establishment of asexual lichens which disperse both the fungus and photobiont together. We used two closely related Nephroma species which differ in their reproductive mode – N. laevigatum (sexual spore‐dispersed) and N. parile (asexual) – and compared their occurrence along a bioclimatic gradient to local habitat factors, including the co‐occurrence of asexual lichens which have shared specificity for compatible Nostoc genotypes. The results showed that: 1) N. laevigatum is significantly more likely to occur on trees that have already been colonised by asexual lichens with shared specificity for Nostoc, supporting the core‐fringe hypothesis, while 2) N. parile is independent of this association (strengthening the core‐fringe hypothesis), with its response to a precipitation gradient modified by microhabitat factors. This positive test for the core‐fringe hypothesis demonstrates how interaction regimes can fundamentally alter expectations under climate change. There is an assumption that spore‐dispersed lichen species could more easily track their suitable bioclimatic space through fragmented habitat, compared to asexual species with larger and heavier propagules. However, the establishment of spore‐dispersed lichen epiphytes into new habitat may be limited by the dispersal rates of asexual species, which act as key facilitators.     

Climate change impacts on endemic,high-elevation lichens in a biodiversity hotspot

Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on lichens and fungi have focused largely on alpine and subalpine habitats, and have not investigated the potential impact on narrowly endemic species. Here, we estimate the impacts of climate change on high-elevation, endemic lichens in the southern Appalachians, a global diversity hotspot for many groups of organisms, including lichens. We conducted extensive field surveys in the high elevations of the region to accurately document the current distributions of eight narrowly endemic lichen species. Species distribution modeling was used to predict how much climatically suitable area will remain within, and north of, the current range of the target species under multiple climate change scenarios at two time points in the future. Our field work showed that target species ranged from extreme rarity to locally abundant. Models predicted over 93 % distributional loss for all species investigated and very little potentially suitable area north of their current distribution in the coming century. Our results indicate that climate change poses a significant threat to high-elevation lichens, and provide a case study in the application of current modeling techniques for rare, montane species.     

Statistical analysis of the lichen vegetation of an avenue in freiburg (South-West Germany), with regard to injurious anthropogenous influences

Summary This paper describes the epiphytic lichen vegetation on maple trees along an 1.1-km avenue leading from the outer suburbs of Freiburg toward the city center. A special aim of this investigation was to examine the variation in the coverage by lichens altogether and by each lichen species as a function of increasing distance from the city. It required very accurate quantitative recording methods, including the method of hits and other statistical techniques. The coverage both of total trunk surface and of sectors facing different directions increases with increasing distance from the city. The distribution pattern of SO₂ pollution in winter, especially under certain weather conditions, e.g., during winter highs with very high SO₂ concentrations, implies a negative correlation between the amount of SO₂ pollution and the total percentage of lichen cover. An influence of factors specific to urban climate and traffic emissions is neglegible. The stress caused by increasing immission from outer suburbs towards the city is also indicated by the decline in coverage by the lichens of foliaceous growth form, the increase in coverage by green algae, and the lichens of crustaceous growth form, especially by the resistant Lecanora conizaeoides. The degree of lichen cover changes with exposure. The differences between the four exposure zones may be caused by climatic differences.     

Contrasting patterns of lichen functional diversity and species richness across an elevation gradient

Major environmental gradients co‐vary with elevation and have been a longstanding natural tool allowing ecologists to study global diversity patterns at smaller scales, and to make predictions about the consequences of climate change. These analyses have traditionally studied taxonomic diversity, but new functional diversity approaches may provide a deeper understanding of the ecological mechanisms driving species assembly. We examined lichen taxonomic and functional diversity patterns on 195 plots (200 m²) together with forest structure along an elevational gradient of 1000 m in a temperate low mountain range (Bohemian Forest, Germany). Along this elevation gradient temperature decreased and precipitation increased, two macroclimatic variables critical for lichens. Elevation was more important than forest structure in driving taxonomic and functional diversity. While species richness increased with elevation, functional diversity decreased and revealed that community patterns shift with elevation from random to clustered, reflecting selection for key shared traits. Higher elevations favored species with a complex growth form (which takes advantage of high moisture) and asexual reproductive mode (facilitating establishment under low temperature conditions). Our analysis highlights the need to examine alternative forms of diversity and opens the avenue for community predictions about climate change. For a regional scenario with increasing temperature and decreasing availability of moisture, we expect a loss of specialized species with a complex growth form and those with vegetative organs at higher elevations in low mountain ranges in Europe.     

Modelling range dynamics of terricolous lichens of the genus Peltigera in the Alps under a climate change scenario

Climate change is expected to strongly impact biodiversity in Alpine ecosystems and species distribution modelling is increasingly used to provide anticipatory information to guide conservation. In this study, (1) we quantified the range loss, range gain, range change and range turnover caused by climate change in the genus Peltigera a group of terricolous lichens widespread across the Alps, and then (2) we evaluated the relationships between the predictors of range dynamics and functional traits. Our results indicate moderate range dynamics for species of the genus Peltigera across the Alps under a climate change scenario. This would imply a relative stability and resistance of these lichens to climate change that may reflect the local persistence of the species under sub-optimal conditions. Our results also suggest that range dynamics could be associated with functional traits mainly related to water-use strategies and to a trade-off between dispersal and establishment ability. This finding suggests that functional traits may strongly modulate the lichen response to climate change and that species with similar functional traits are prone to similar selective pressures.     

The influence of climatic legacies on the distribution of dryland biocrust communities

Predicting the distribution of biocrust species, mosses, lichens and liverworts associated with surface soils is difficult, but climatic legacies (changes in climate over the last 20 k years) can improve our prediction of the distribution of biocrust species. To provide empirical support for this hypothesis, we used a combination of network analyses and structural equation modelling to identify the role of climatic legacies in predicting the distribution of ecological clusters formed by species of mosses, lichens and liverworts using data from 282 large sites distributed across 0.6 million km² of eastern Australia. Two ecological clusters contained 87% of the 120 moss, lichen and liverwort species. Both clusters contained lichen, moss and liverwort species, but were dominated by different families. Sites where the air temperature increased the most over 20k years (positive temperature legacies) were associated with reductions in the relative abundance of species from the lichen (Peltulaceae and Teloschistaceae) and moss (Bryaceae) families (Cluster A species), greater groundstorey plant cover and lower soil pH. Sites where precipitation has increased over the past 20k years (positive precipitation legacy) were associated with increases in the relative abundance of lichen (Cladoniaceae, Lecideaceae and Thelotremataceae) and moss (Pottiaceae) families (Cluster B species) and lower levels of soil pH. Sites where temperatures have increased the most in the past 20k years suppressed the negative effects of plant cover on Cluster B by reducing plant cover. Increased intensity of grazing suppressed the negative effect of soil pH and the positive effect of soil carbon, on the relative abundance of Cluster B taxa. Finally, increasing temperature and precipitation legacies reduced the negative effect of soil pH on Cluster B. Understanding of the importance of climatic legacies improves our ability to predict how biocrust assemblies might respond to ongoing global environmental change associated with increasing land use intensification, increasing temperature and reduced rainfall.     

Predicting growth of mat‐forming lichens on a landscape scale – comparing models with different complexities

During the 20th century, forestry practices has adversely affected lichen‐rich habitats. Mat‐forming lichens are important components of the vegetation of boreal and arctic ecosystems and are the main reindeer forage during the winter. To support the long‐term management of lichens in such habitats we developed models for predicting the growth of two common species. The lichens were transplanted across northern Scandinavia along a west‐east gradient varying in precipitation, temperature and irradiance. Growth was recorded seasonally over 16 months and ranged from ?4.8 to 34.6% and ?12.7 to 34.7% dry weight change for Cetraria stellaris and Cladina islandica, respectively. Growth was light limited below canopies with more than ca 60% cover and highest at the more humid sites when light levels were optimal. The models were based on various meteorological parameters, irradiance, physiological data and lichen hydration status; the latter was derived from a recently developed lichen hydration model. Our models' abilities to predict growth, both annually and seasonally (i.e. in summer), were evaluated in relation to their complexity and their potential usefulness from a management perspective. One parameter related to irradiance (the logarithm of site openness) was valuable in the prediction of annual growth for both species and could, in combination with precipitation, explain 52% of the variation in annual growth for C. stellaris and, in combination with total wet time and the irradiance received while wet, explain 66% of the variation in annual growth for C. islandica. The best simplified model explained 43% of the variation in annual growth for C. stellaris, using stem basal area and the annual normal temperature, and 24% for C. islandica using basal area alone. It is concluded that ensuring sufficient irradiance below the forest canopy is of crucial importance in the long‐term management of mat‐forming lichens and that simplified models can be used to identify appropriate habitats.     

Ice encapsulation protects rather than disturbs the freezing lichen

Arctic and alpine terricolous lichens are adapted to harsh environments and are tolerant to extremely low temperatures when metabolically inactive. However, there are reports indicating that freezing can be lethal to metabolically active lichens. With a projected warmer and more unstable climate, winter precipitation at high latitudes will fall more frequently as rain, causing snowmelt and encapsulating terricolous lichens in ice or exposing them to large temperature fluctuations. Lichens are a major winter food source for reindeer in most parts of the circumpolar region. A laboratory experiment tested how three hydrated reindeer forage lichen species covered by snow, encapsulated in ice, or uncovered responded to storage at freezing temperatures and subsequent warming. Photosynthetic performance (maximal fluorescence of dark-adapted samples and net photosynthetic rates) was significantly lower in lichens not insulated by snow or ice, whereas there were few differences between the snow and ice treatments. It is suggested that snow and ice provide sufficiently moist environments to improve extracellular and reduce intracellular ice nucleation activity. Ice encapsulation, which is often lethal to vascular plants, did not have any negative effects on the studied lichens. The results indicate that complete snow and ice melt followed by refreezing can be detrimental to terricolous lichen ecosystems. Reduced lichen biomass will have a negative effect both on reindeer winter survival and the indigenous peoples who herd reindeer.     

Non-Destructive Lichen Biomass Estimation in Northwestern Alaska: A Comparison of Methods

Terrestrial lichen biomass is an important indicator of forage availability for caribou in northern regions, and can indicate vegetation shifts due to climate change, air pollution or changes in vascular plant community structure. Techniques for estimating lichen biomass have traditionally required destructive harvesting that is painstaking and impractical, so we developed models to estimate biomass from relatively simple cover and height measurements. We measured cover and height of forage lichens (including single-taxon and multi-taxa “community” samples, n = 144) at 73 sites on the Seward Peninsula of northwestern Alaska, and harvested lichen biomass from the same plots. We assessed biomass-to-volume relationships using zero-intercept regressions, and compared differences among two non-destructive cover estimation methods (ocular vs. point count), among four landcover types in two ecoregions, and among single-taxon vs. multi-taxa samples. Additionally, we explored the feasibility of using lichen height (instead of volume) as a predictor of stand-level biomass. Although lichen taxa exhibited unique biomass and bulk density responses that varied significantly by growth form, we found that single-taxon sampling consistently under-estimated true biomass and was constrained by the need for taxonomic experts. We also found that the point count method provided little to no improvement over ocular methods, despite increased effort. Estimated biomass of lichen-dominated communities (mean lichen cover: 84.9±1.4%) using multi-taxa, ocular methods differed only nominally among landcover types within ecoregions (range: 822 to 1418 g m⁻²). Height alone was a poor predictor of lichen biomass and should always be weighted by cover abundance. We conclude that the multi-taxa (whole-community) approach, when paired with ocular estimates, is the most reasonable and practical method for estimating lichen biomass at landscape scales in northwest Alaska.     

Extremely low lichen growth rates in Taylor Valley,Dry Valleys,continental Antarctica

Estimates of lichen growth rates based on the measurements of several thalli at any site do not exist for continental Antarctica. However, the very limited existing data suggest that lichen growth rate may be a good indicator of climate change in Antarctica. We present measurements made on thalli of the lichen Buellia frigida Darb. growing in the Dry Valleys, Southern Victoria Land, continental Antarctica, which appear to have some of the slowest radial growth rates yet measured. Photographs of thalli at three different sites were analysed for growth over a 25-year period using nano-GIS techniques. At one site, Mt. Falconer Summit, the lichens had a mean growth rate of 0.0052 mm year⁻¹ with one individual as low as 0.0036 mm year⁻¹. Thalli at the other two sites had significantly higher mean growth rates, 0.0136 mm year⁻¹ at Mt. Falconer Ridge and 0.0118 mm year⁻¹ at Rhone Bench. Assuming a constant growth rate, thalli at Mt. Falconer Summit had a mean age of 5,367 years, whilst the thalli at the other two sites were much younger, 840–1,026 years. We suggest that the different ages represent the appearance of new substrate for colonisation following climate changes in the Dry Valleys that altered the amount and duration of snow. The results confirm that lichen growth rate differs by almost two orders of magnitude over a latitudinal range of 15 degrees from south to north across Antarctica.     

Response of calcareous grassland vegetation to mowing and fluctuating weather conditions

Question: What determines the balance between the cover values of vascular plants, lichens and mosses in dry calcareous grassland communities? Location: Western Estonia. Methods: A five‐year (2001–2005) study was conducted in a dry calcareous grassland. The cover of mosses, lichens and vascular plants and all moss species was recorded in permanent plots. Vascular plants were cut in half of the plots. Data from a nearby weather station were used to calculate mean values of different weather parameters and a summer moisture index for the study years. Results: Significant differences in cover values between years were found. The fluctuations of total moss cover and the cover of the dominating moss species Ctenidium molluscum followed changes in annual precipitation. Both cover values were highest in years with high precipitation. The cover change of vascular plants was best characterized by the moisture index of the growth period (three summer months). Summers with high moisture indexes facilitated vascular plant and lichen growth. Annual precipitation and the cover of mosses had a negative influence on the cover of vascular plants. The cutting of vascular plants did not have a significant effect on moss and lichen cover. Conclusions: 1. On dry calcareous grasslands the growth of mosses is enhanced by high annual precipitation, while the growth of vascular plants and lichens is influenced rather by the high summer moisture index. The cover of vascular plants is inhibited by the large moss cover. 2. Mowing of vascular plants does not influence the cover of mosses and lichens.     

The relative impact of lichen symbiotic partners to repeated copper uptake

The relative impact of lichen photobiont and mycobiont was evaluated by submitting nine lichen species with: (i) different photobiont types; (ii) different lichen growth forms; and (iii) different nutrients, pH, humidity preferences; to a range of Cu concentrations (μM) supplied in repeated cycles to simulate the natural process of uptake under field conditions. The physiological performance of the photosystem II photochemical reactions was measured using F_v/F_m and the metabolic activity of the mycobiont was evaluated using ergosterol and intracellular K-loss as indicators. Lichens with higher cation exchange capacity showed higher intracellular Cu uptake and their ecology seemed to be associated with low-nutrient environments. Thus the wall and external matrix, mainly characteristic of the mycobiont partner, cannot be ignored as the first site of interaction of metals with lichens. No common intracellular Cu concentration threshold was found for the physiological impacts observed in the different species. Most physiological effects of Cu uptake in sensitive lichens occurred for intracellular Cu below 200 μg/g dw whereas more tolerant species were able to cope with intracellular Cu at least 3 times higher. Cyanobacterial lichens showed to be more sensitive to Cu uptake than green-algal lichens. Within the Trebouxia lichens, different species showed different sensitivities to Cu uptake, suggesting that the mycobiont may change the microenvironment close to the photobiont partner providing different degrees of protection. Despite the fact that the photobiont is the productive partner, the metabolic activity of the mycobiont of lichen species adapted to environments rich in nutrients, showed to be more sensitive to Cu uptake than the photochemical performance of the photobiont.     

Changing climate and historic‐woodland structure interact to control species diversity of the ‘Lobarion’ epiphyte community in Scotland

Question: How will changing climate and habitat structure interact to control the species diversity of lichen epiphytes? Location: Scotland. Method: Species richness (=diversity) of the epiphyte lichen community known as Lobarion (named after Lobaria pulmonaria) was quantified for 94 Populus tremula stands across Scotland, and compared in a predictive model to seven climate variables and eight measures of woodland structure. An optimum model was selected and used to project Lobarion diversity over the geographic range of the study area, based on IPCC climate change scenarios and hypothetical shifts in woodland structure. Results: Species diversity of the Lobarion community was best explained by three climate variables: (1) average annual temperature; (2) autumn and winter precipitation; in combination with (3) historic‐woodland extent. Projections indicate a positive effect of predicted climate change on Lobarion diversity, consistent with the physiological traits of cyanobac‐terial lichens comprising the Lobarion. However, the general response to climate is modified significantly by the effect on diversity of historic‐woodland extent. Conclusions: Historic‐woodland extent may exert an important control over local climate, as well as impacting upon the metapopulation dynamics of species in the Lobarion. In particular, a temporal delay in the response of Lobarion species to changed woodland structure is critical to our understanding of future climate change effects. Future Lobarion diversity (e.g. in the 2050s) may depend upon the interaction of contemporary climate (e.g. 2050s climate) and historic habitat structure (e.g. 1950s woodland extent). This is supported by previous observations for an extinction debt amongst lichen epiphytes, but suggests an extension of simple climate‐response models is necessary, before their wider application to lichen epiphyte diversity.     

Lichen ecophysiology in a changing climate

Lichens are one of the most iconic and ubiquitous symbioses known, widely valued as indicators of environmental quality and, more recently, climate change. Our understanding of lichen responses to climate has greatly expanded in recent decades, but some biases and constraints have shaped our present knowledge. In this review we focus on lichen ecophysiology as a key to predicting responses to present and future climates, highlighting recent advances and remaining challenges. Lichen ecophysiology is best understood through complementary whole-thallus and within-thallus scales. Water content and form (vapor or liquid) are central to whole-thallus perspectives, making vapor pressure differential (VPD) a particularly informative environmental driver. Responses to water content are further modulated by photobiont physiology and whole-thallus phenotype, providing clear links to a functional trait framework. However, this thallus-level perspective is incomplete without also considering within-thallus dynamics, such as changing proportions or even identities of symbionts in response to climate, nutrients, and other stressors. These changes provide pathways for acclimation, but their understanding is currently limited by large gaps in our understanding of carbon allocation and symbiont turnover in lichens. Lastly, the study of lichen physiology has mainly prioritized larger lichens at high latitudes, producing valuable insights but underrepresenting the range of lichenized lineages and ecologies. Key areas for future work include improving geographic and phylogenetic coverage, greater emphasis on VPD as a climatic factor, advances in the study of carbon allocation and symbiont turnover, and the incorporation of physiological theory and functional traits in our predictive models.     

Functional traits of epiphytic lichen communities in a Temperate-Mediterranean fragmented landscape: Importance of patch size,tree diameter and summer rainfall

Functional traits have become important tools for evaluating the response of epiphytic lichens to environmental changes. In this study, we evaluated which predictors related to fragmentation, habitat quality and climate were driving the richness and cover of lichen growth form, type of photobiont and reproduction traits, at both fragment and plot levels in a Temperate-Mediterranean area dominated by Quercus forests. At fragment level, patch size and summer rainfall positively contributed to richness in most of the traits, while tree diameter and slope were the most important drivers, especially for the type of reproduction and growth form at plot scale. High coverage of growth forms especially sensitive to fragmentation were indicative of high values of total species richness, while early-colonizers indicated the opposite. These results provide important information on how lichen traits respond to environmental conditions in an ecotone area where a shift towards a drier climate is more likely to occur.     

Paleoclimate of La Guajira, Colombia; by the growth rings of Capparis odoratissima (Capparidaceae)

There is great concern about the effect of climate change in arid and subarid areas of the tropics. Climate change combined with other anthropogenic activities such as deforestation, fires and over-grazing can accelerate their degradation and, consequently, the increases in losses of biological and economic productivity. Climate models, both local and global, predict that rainfall in the arid Peninsula of La Guajira in the Colombian Caribbean would be reduced and temperature would be increased as a result of climate change. However, as there are only suitable climate records since 1972, it is not possible to verify if, indeed, this is happening. To try to verify the hypothesis of reducing rainfall and rising temperatures we developed a growth ring chronology of Capparis odoratissima in the Middle Peninsula of La Guajira with 17 trees and 45 series which attain 48 years back. We use standard dendrochronological methods that showed statistically significant linear relationship with local climatic variables such as air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), annual precipitation and wind speed; we also reach to successful relationship of the chronology with global climatic variables as the indices SOI and MEI of the ENSO phenomenon. The transfer functions estimated with the time series (1955 and 2003) do not showed statistically significant trends, indicating that during this period of time the annual precipitation or temperatures have not changed. The annual nature of C. odoratissima growth rings, the possibility of cross-dated among the samples of this species, and the high correlation with local and global climatic variables indicate a high potential of this species for dendrochronological studies in this part of the American continent.     

Range position and climate sensitivity: The structure of among‐population demographic responses to climatic variation

Species’ distributions will respond to climate change based on the relationship between local demographic processes and climate and how this relationship varies based on range position. A rarely tested demographic prediction is that populations at the extremes of a species’ climate envelope (e.g., populations in areas with the highest mean annual temperature) will be most sensitive to local shifts in climate (i.e., warming). We tested this prediction using a dynamic species distribution model linking demographic rates to variation in temperature and precipitation for wood frogs (Lithobates sylvaticus) in North America. Using long‐term monitoring data from 746 populations in 27 study areas, we determined how climatic variation affected population growth rates and how these relationships varied with respect to long‐term climate. Some models supported the predicted pattern, with negative effects of extreme summer temperatures in hotter areas and positive effects on recruitment for summer water availability in drier areas. We also found evidence of interacting temperature and precipitation influencing population size, such as extreme heat having less of a negative effect in wetter areas. Other results were contrary to predictions, such as positive effects of summer water availability in wetter parts of the range and positive responses to winter warming especially in milder areas. In general, we found wood frogs were more sensitive to changes in temperature or temperature interacting with precipitation than to changes in precipitation alone. Our results suggest that sensitivity to changes in climate cannot be predicted simply by knowing locations within the species’ climate envelope. Many climate processes did not affect population growth rates in the predicted direction based on range position. Processes such as species‐interactions, local adaptation, and interactions with the physical landscape likely affect the responses we observed. Our work highlights the need to measure demographic responses to changing climate.