Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?

In response to agriculture''s vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people''s concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California''s Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers'' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.     

Climate Change: Believing and Seeing Implies Adapting

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ±0.01) to 0.81 (SD ±0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ±0.008) to 0.91 (SD ±0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.     

Expanding northward: influence of climate change,forest connectivity,and population processes on a threatened species' range shift

Species' ranges are dynamic, shifting in response to a large number of interrelated ecological and anthropogenic processes. Climate change is thought to be one of the most influential drivers of range shifts, but the effects of other confounded ecological processes are often ignored even though these processes may modify expected range responses to climate change. To determine the relative effects of climate, forest availability, connectivity, and biotic processes such as immigration and establishment, we examine range changes occurring in a species of bird, the Hooded Warbler (Wilsonia citrina). We focus predominantly on the periphery of the species' northern range in Canada but we also examine data from the entire species' range. Nesting records in southern Ontario were obtained from two breeding bird Atlases of Ontario separated by a period of 20 years (1981–1985 and 2001–2005), and the rate of range expansion was estimated by comparing the number of occupied areas in each Atlas. Twelve hypotheses of the relationship between the rate of range expansion and factors known to influence range change were examined using model‐selection techniques and a mixed modeling approach (zero‐inflated Poisson's regression). Cooler temperatures were positively related to a lack of range expansion indicating that climate constrained the species' distribution. Establishment probability (based on the number of occupied, neighboring Atlas squares) and immigration from populations to the south (estimated using independent data from the North American Breeding Bird Survey) were also important predictors of range expansion. These biotic process variables can mask the effects of forest availability and connectivity on range expansion. Expansion due to climate change may be slower in fragmented systems, but the rate of expansion will be influenced largely by biotic processes such as proximity to neighboring populations.     

Geographical variation in species' population responses to changes in temperature and precipitation

Despite increasing concerns about the vulnerability of species'' populations to climate change, there has been little overall synthesis of how individual population responses to variation in climate differ between taxa, with trophic level or geographically. To address this, we extracted data from 132 long-term (greater than or equal to 20 years) studies of population responses to temperature and precipitation covering 236 animal and plant species across terrestrial and freshwater habitats. Our results identify likely geographical differences in the effects of climate change on populations and communities in line with macroecological theory. Temperature tended to have a greater overall impact on populations than precipitation, although the effects of increased precipitation varied strongly with latitude, being most positive at low latitudes. Population responses to increased temperature were generally positive, but did not vary significantly with latitude. Studies reporting significant climatic trends through time tended to show more negative effects of temperature and more positive effects of precipitation upon populations than other studies, indicating climate change has already impacted many populations. Most studies of climate change impacts on biodiversity have focused on temperature and are from middle to high northern latitudes. Our results suggest their findings may be less applicable to low latitudes.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Ecological consequences through responses of plant and soil communities to changing winter climate

Community processes are now undergoing substantial reconfiguration because of climate change. Although the effects of climate change on ecosystems are currently a major concern, the issues tightly associated with winter climate change have been underrepresented. Given the importance of winter climate variables and events for determining the spatial distribution of communities and their phenological and physiological responses, and the functional roles of each species, all of which are expected to substantially influence community dis/re-assemble in the future, this review focuses on the ecological responses and consequences of terrestrial communities to changing winter climate. In particular, the effects on processes supported by biological interactions are largely undetermined. In this context, focusing on plant–soil feedback as a major interactive multi-system is worthwhile; these interactions can be disentangled through careful evaluation of the functional roles of organisms involved in the feedback (i.e., plants and soil organisms). The underlying mechanisms are indeed complex because direct (i.e., changes in physical conditions) and indirect pathways (i.e., plant-mediated influences on soil-organisms and vice versa) from winter climate change influence the functionality of future ecosystems. To face these issues, the framework of response–effect-traits deserves research priority since this can define community re-organization as the accumulated responses of individual species, which determines the stability and performance of ecosystem functioning. Thus, research that quantifies functional responses and roles of organisms under a changing climate will continue to be essential for the issues of winter climate change, which may become more serious and significant in the near future.     

Religion Does Matter for Climate Change Attitudes and Behavior

Little research has focused on the relationship between religion and climate change attitudes and behavior. Further, while there have been some studies examining the relationship between environmental attitudes and religion, most are focused on Christian denominations and secularism, and few have examined other religions such as Buddhism. Using an online survey of 1,927 Australians we examined links between membership of four religious groupings (Buddhists, Christian literalists and non-literalists, and Secularists) and climate change attitudes and behaviors. Differences were found across religious groups in terms of their belief in: (a) human induced climate change, (b) the level of consensus among scientists, (c) their own efficacy, and (d) the need for policy responses. We show, using ordinal regression, that religion explains these differences even after taking into account socio-demographic factors, knowledge and environmental attitude, including belief in man’s dominion over nature. Differences in attitude and behavior between these religious groups suggest the importance of engaging denominations to encourage change in attitudes and behavior among their members.     

Climate change‐induced distributional change of medicinal and aromatic plants in the Nepal Himalaya

Medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) contribute to human well‐being via health and economic benefits. Nepal has recorded 2331 species of MAPs, of which around 300 species are currently under trade. Wild harvested MAPs in Nepal are under increasing pressure from overexploitation for trade and the effects of climate change and development. Despite some localized studies to examine the impact of climate change on MAPs, a consolidated understanding is lacking on how the distribution of major traded species of MAPs will change with future climate change. This study identifies the potential distribution of 29 species of MAPs in Nepal under current and future climate using an ensemble modeling and hotspot approach. Future climate change will reduce climatically suitable areas of two‐third of the studied species and decrease climatically suitable hotspots across elevation, physiography, ecoregions, federal states, and protected areas in Nepal. Reduction in climatically suitable areas for MAPs might have serious consequences for the livelihood of people that depend on the collection and trade of MAPs as well as Nepal''s national economy. Therefore, it is imperative to consider the threats that future climate change may have on distribution of MAPs while designing protected areas and devising environmental conservation and climate adaptation policies.     

Persistence during Tasks with Horses in Relation to Social Support,General Self-efficacy and Self-esteem in Adolescents

ABSTRACT

In young people, interactions with horses may contribute to the development of social skills and self-efficacy. Our aim was to identify relationships between psychological variables and young people's experience of activities with horses. Participants in this study were 13–15-year-old adolescents (n = 25), given a 4-month intervention consisting of weekly sessions of stable work and horseback riding. We investigated the relationship between psychological variables from survey data with video-recorded behavioral observations during tasks and contact with horses. From the behavioral data, we calculated the frequency per hour of “trying again” when met with a challenge, as a measure of participants' persistence in horse-related tasks. The number of times per hour that that participant initiated contact with the horse was used as a measure of frequency of physical contact (petting). We examined correlations between the change from early to late stages of the intervention in trying again during horse-related tasks and for physical contact and three psychological variables measured prior to the intervention: perceived social support, self-esteem, and general self-efficacy. We detected an association between lower pretest levels of perceived social support and general self- efficacy, and an increase during the intervention in persistence of trying again when met with challenges during tasks with the horse. In a linear regression analysis, controlling for initial levels of persistence during horse-related tasks, self-esteem, and self-efficacy, social support was the only unique predictor of an increase in persistence during the intervention. No association was found between the psychological variables and change in frequency of petting the horse. The results indicate that adolescents with lower levels of perceived social support at the start of the intervention showed greater increases in their persistence in trying again after being met with challenges during horse-related tasks. Since persistence is a central aspect in the development of mastery of tasks, the possible positive social impact of the horse/stable environment should be given more attention in future intervention research.     

Effects of manipulatable objects on the activity of captive capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella)

The aim of this study was to evaluate simple behavioral enrichment procedures for a captive group of tufted capuchin monkeys (Cebus apella). We examined the effects of providing a manipulatable substrate (straw) and a variety of portable objects in the monkeys' home cage. The animals were observed across three conditions in two replications: 1) No portable objects were present; 2) a set of six identical portable objects was present; and 3) a set of six varied portable objects was present. The cage floor was bare in the first replication; straw was uniformly spread on the cage floor in the second replication. An 18-month period of qualitative note taking followed completion of the initial data collection phase. The presence of straw and portable objects affected patterns of affiliation by decreasing quiet contact and close proximity. Providing additional manipulative opportunities affected both the form and frequency of object-directed activities. Object contacts were directed toward a greater variety of targets, and some objects were spontaneously used as tools. Manipulation of provided objects and use of objects as tools have become routine activities in this group of monkeys. We conclude that providing straw and portable objects in an already well equipped cage is an effective means of long-term behavioral enrichment for captive capuchin monkeys. Enabling captive capuchins to express species-typical manipulative tendencies is apparently conducive to the monkeys' optimal physical and psychological well-being as well as interesting to the human observer.     

Hand in Hand: Public Endorsement of Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

This research investigated how an individual’s endorsements of mitigation and adaptation relate to each other, and how well each of these can be accounted for by relevant social psychological factors. Based on survey data from two European convenience samples (N = 616 / 309) we found that public endorsements of mitigation and adaptation are strongly associated: Someone who is willing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (mitigation) is also willing to prepare for climate change impacts (adaptation). Moreover, people endorsed the two response strategies for similar reasons: People who believe that climate change is real and dangerous, who have positive attitudes about protecting the environment and the climate, and who perceive climate change as a risk, are willing to respond to climate change. Furthermore, distinguishing between (spatially) proximal and distant risk perceptions suggested that the idea of portraying climate change as a proximal (i.e., local) threat might indeed be effective in promoting personal actions. However, to gain endorsement of broader societal initiatives such as policy support, it seems advisable to turn to the distant risks of climate change. The notion that “localising” climate change might not be the panacea for engaging people in this domain is discussed in regard to previous theory and research.     

Climate change,uncertainty, and natural resource management

Climate change and its associated uncertainties are of concern to natural resource managers. Although aspects of climate change may be novel (e.g., system change and nonstationarity), natural resource managers have long dealt with uncertainties and have developed corresponding approaches to decision-making. Adaptive resource management is an application of structured decision-making for recurrent decision problems with uncertainty, focusing on management objectives, and the reduction of uncertainty over time. We identified 4 types of uncertainty that characterize problems in natural resource management. We examined ways in which climate change is expected to exacerbate these uncertainties, as well as potential approaches to dealing with them. As a case study, we examined North American waterfowl harvest management and considered problems anticipated to result from climate change and potential solutions. Despite challenges expected to accompany the use of adaptive resource management to address problems associated with climate change, we conclude that adaptive resource management approaches will be the methods of choice for managers trying to deal with the uncertainties of climate change. © 2010 The Wildlife Society.     

基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例

农户对气候变化的感知是其适应行动选择的基础,弄清楚影响农户气候变化感知的关键因素,辨明农户气候变化感知的形成机制,对制定有效的适应策略至关重要。以甘南高原为研究区,基于539份入户调查数据,构建了路径模型,分析了影响农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素及其作用路径,结果发现:(1)客观适应能力对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响;(2)气候变化信息对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,它还通过客观适应能力间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知;(3)社会话语信任度对农牧户的气候变化风险感知及适应感知有显著的正向影响,适应激励对农牧户的气候变化适应感知有显著的正向影响,但对风险感知产生显著的负向影响,同时,社会话语信任度及适应激励均通过气候变化信息及客观适应能力而间接影响农牧户的气候变化感知。最后,基于影响甘南高原农牧户气候变化感知的关键因素,提出了提高农牧户的气候变化认知水平及气候变化适应行为有效性的对策建议。     

Not Just a Coalmine: Shifting Grounds of Community Opposition to Coal Mining in Southeastern Australia

For almost three decades, open cut coal mines have been expanding deeper into the densely settled agricultural landscape of the Hunter Valley, New South Wales. The mines have become increasingly profitable for Australian and multinational companies, and Newcastle, the capital of the Hunter region, is now the world's largest black coal exporting port. Despite the significant new wealth that mining has brought, those residing in proximity to mines and coal-fired power stations in the Hunter Valley have long struggled against the deleterious effects on health, rural livelihoods and environment. In recent years, opposition has widened to a more activist environmentalism that links the coal economy to climate change, global warming and other cumulative health and environmental effects. The organisational scale of the opposition has correspondingly widened to interconnect local residents, Green political parties and transnational organisations such as Greenpeace and the World Wildlife Fund. Using the Anvil Hill open cut mine proposal as an example, this paper examines the shifting grounds of environmental knowledge and oppositional practices by coal-affected residents of the Hunter Valley.     

森林凋落物分解及其对全球气候变化的响应

凋落物分解是重要的森林生态系统过程之一,受到气候、凋落物质量、土壤生物群落等生物和非生物因素的综合调控．迄今,有关不同森林生态系统和不同树种地上部分的凋落物动态、凋落物分解过程中的养分释放动态、生物和非生物因素对凋落物分解的影响等研究报道较多,但对地下凋落物的分解研究相对较少．近年来,森林凋落物分解对以大气CO2浓度增加和温度升高为主要特征的全球变化的响应逐步受到重视,但其研究结果仍具有很多不确定性．因此,未来凋落物生态研究的重点应是凋落物分解对土壤有机碳固定的贡献、地上／地下凋落物的物理、化学和生物学过程及其对各种生态因子（例如冻融、干湿交替）及交互作用的响应、凋落物特别是地下凋落物分解对全球气候变化的响应机制等方面．     

Exploring Twitter to Analyze the Public’s Reaction Patterns to Recently Reported Homicides in London

Crime is an ubiquitous part of society. The way people express their concerns about crimes has been of particular interest to the scientific community. Over time, the numbers and kinds of available communication channels have increased. Today, social media services, such Twitter, present a convenient way to express opinions and concerns about crimes. The main objective of this study is to explore people’s perception of homicides, specifically, how the characteristics and proximity of the event affect the public’s concern about it. The analysis explores Twitter messages that refer to homicides that occurred in London in 2012. In particular, the dependence of tweeting propensity on the proximity, in space and time, of a crime incident and of people being concerned about that particular incident are examined. Furthermore, the crime characteristics of the homicides are analysed using logistic regression analysis. The results show that the proximity of the Twitter users’ estimated home locations to the homicides’ locations impacts on whether the associated crime news is spread or not and how quickly. More than half of the homicide related tweets are sent within the first week and the majority of them are sent within a month of the incident’s occurrence. Certain crime characteristics, including the presence of a knife, a young victim, a British victim, or a homicide committed by a gang are predictors of the crime-tweets posting frequency.     

The Scientific Consensus on Climate Change as a Gateway Belief: Experimental Evidence

There is currently widespread public misunderstanding about the degree of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change, both in the US as well as internationally. Moreover, previous research has identified important associations between public perceptions of the scientific consensus, belief in climate change and support for climate policy. This paper extends this line of research by advancing and providing experimental evidence for a “gateway belief model” (GBM). Using national data (N = 1104) from a consensus-message experiment, we find that increasing public perceptions of the scientific consensus is significantly and causally associated with an increase in the belief that climate change is happening, human-caused and a worrisome threat. In turn, changes in these key beliefs are predictive of increased support for public action. In short, we find that perceived scientific agreement is an important gateway belief, ultimately influencing public responses to climate change.     

Six minutes to promote change: People,not facts,alter students' perceptions on climate change

Anthropogenic climate change threatens the structure and function of ecosystems throughout the globe, but many people are still skeptical of its existence. Traditional “knowledge deficit model” thinking has suggested that providing the public with more facts about climate change will assuage skepticism. However, presenting evidence contrary to prior beliefs can have the opposite effect and result in a strengthening of previously held beliefs, a phenomenon known as biased assimilation or a backfire effect. Given this, strategies for effectively communicating about socioscientific issues that are politically controversial need to be thoroughly investigated. We randomly assigned 184 undergraduates from an environmental science class to one of three experimental conditions in which we exposed them to short videos that employed different messaging strategies: (a) an engaging science lecture, (b) consensus messaging, and (c) elite cues. We measured changes in student perceptions of climate change across five constructs (content knowledge, acceptance of scientific consensus, perceived risk, support for action, and climate identity) before and after viewing videos. Consensus messaging outperformed the other two conditions in increasing student acceptance of the scientific consensus, perceived risk of climate change, and climate identity, suggesting this may be an effective strategy for communicating the gravity of anthropogenic climate change. Elite cues outperformed the engaging science lecture condition in increasing student support for action on climate, with politically conservative students driving this relationship, suggesting that the messenger is more important than the message if changing opinions about the necessity of action on climate change is the desired outcome. Relative to the other conditions, the engaging science lecture did not support change in students'' perceptions on climate, but appealing to student respect for authority produced positive results. Notably, we observed no decline in students'' acceptance of climate science, indicating that none of the conditions induced a backfire effect.     

不同海拔高度农牧民对气候变化的感知与适应

气候变化已经对西藏地区产生了明显而深刻的影响。农牧民对气候变化的当地影响有较系统的认识。以西藏乃东区为研究对象。调查4个不同海拔梯度上农牧民对气候变化的感知与适应,然后利用气象数据对比农牧民对气候变化的感知,探究海拔高度与农牧民感知及其适应行为的关系,分析影响农牧民对气候变化感知与适应行为的因素。结果如下,研究区增温趋势明显,年降水量自2005年以来明显减少。不同梯度上的农牧民对当地气候变化的相对感知强度存在差异。农牧民对气温和雪覆盖变化的相对感知强度较高且基本随海拔升高而增强,而对雨季、农作物病虫害、新的病虫害变化的相对感知强度则随海拔升高而减弱。农牧民对年降水量的相对感知强度整体较低,但对近年年降水量持续减少记忆较深刻。在全球气候变化背景下,流域的上下两端会遭受较多的气候变化负面影响。农牧民对当地气候变化的感知与其采取的适应行为并不具有同步性。农牧民的受教育程度、经济状况、当地传统文化及其对气候变化的感知强度等因素均会影响农牧民对气候变化适应措施的选择。政府在制定及实施气候政策时应考虑流域内不同海拔高度区域气候变化特征及其影响的差异。     

Beyond a warming fingerprint: individualistic biogeographic responses to heterogeneous climate change in California

Understanding recent biogeographic responses to climate change is fundamental for improving our predictions of likely future responses and guiding conservation planning at both local and global scales. Studies of observed biogeographic responses to 20th century climate change have principally examined effects related to ubiquitous increases in temperature – collectively termed a warming fingerprint. Although the importance of changes in other aspects of climate – particularly precipitation and water availability – is widely acknowledged from a theoretical standpoint and supported by paleontological evidence, we lack a practical understanding of how these changes interact with temperature to drive biogeographic responses. Further complicating matters, differences in life history and ecological attributes may lead species to respond differently to the same changes in climate. Here, we examine whether recent biogeographic patterns across California are consistent with a warming fingerprint. We describe how various components of climate have changed regionally in California during the 20th century and review empirical evidence of biogeographic responses to these changes, particularly elevational range shifts. Many responses to climate change do not appear to be consistent with a warming fingerprint, with downslope shifts in elevation being as common as upslope shifts across a number of taxa and many demographic and community responses being inconsistent with upslope shifts. We identify a number of potential direct and indirect mechanisms for these responses, including the influence of aspects of climate change other than temperature (e.g., the shifting seasonal balance of energy and water availability), differences in each taxon's sensitivity to climate change, trophic interactions, and land‐use change. Finally, we highlight the need to move beyond a warming fingerprint in studies of biogeographic responses by considering a more multifaceted view of climate, emphasizing local‐scale effects, and including a priori knowledge of relevant natural history for the taxa and regions under study.