Flooded native pastures of the northern region of the Pantanal of Mato Grosso: biomass and primary productivity variations.

The Pantanal comprises a number of landscape units, submitted to a flood pulse with variable intensity or regularity. One of these units, the flooded plains, is important in cattle raising. This study was carried out in the northern portion of the Pantanal and presents data related to the productive dynamics of the flooded native pastures both protected from and exposed to cattle. The greatest total biomass values were for the protected pasture due to accumulated dead biomass. Net primary production presented smaller values at the flood-season start and increasing gradually beginning in the subsequent rainy season. However, consumption by cattle was also more intense during the months of greater precipitation. The effect of cattle in pastures is of fundamental importance to management since it prevents the dead biomass excess that increases fire risks.     

Unexpected patterns of sensitivity to drought in three semi-arid grasslands

Global climate models forecast an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, including severe droughts. Based on multi-year relationships between precipitation amount and aboveground annual net primary production (ANPP), semi-arid grasslands are projected to be among the most sensitive ecosystems to changes in precipitation. To assess sensitivity to drought, as well as variability within the shortgrass steppe biome, we imposed moderate and severe rainfall reductions for two growing seasons in three undisturbed grasslands that varied in soil type and climate. We predicted strong drought-induced reductions in ANPP at all sites and greater sensitivity to drought in sites with lower average precipitation, consistent with continental-scale patterns. Identical experimental infrastructure at each site reduced growing season rainfall events by 50 or 80%, and significantly reduced average soil moisture in both years (by 21 and 46% of control levels, respectively). Despite reductions in soil moisture, ANPP responses varied unexpectedly-from no reduction in ANPP to a 51% decrease. Although sensitivity to drought was highest in the semi-arid grassland with lowest mean annual precipitation, patterns in responses to drought across these grasslands were also strongly related to rainfall event size. When growing season rainfall patterns were dominated by many smaller events, ANPP was significantly reduced by drought but not when rainfall patterns were characterized by large rain events. This interaction between drought sensitivity and rainfall event size suggests that ANPP responses to future droughts may be reduced if growing season rainfall regimes also become more extreme.     

Seasonal and synoptic climatic drivers of tree growth in the Bighorn Mountains,WY, USA (1654–1983 CE)

In the United States’ (US) Northern Rockies, synoptic pressure systems and atmospheric circulation drive interannual variation in seasonal temperature and precipitation. The radial growth of high-elevation trees in this semi-arid region captures this temperature and precipitation variability and provides long time series to contextualize instrumental-era variability in synoptic-scale climate patterns. Such variability in climate patterns can trigger extreme climate events, such as droughts, floods, and forest fires, which have a damaging impact on human and natural systems. We developed 11 tree-ring width (TRW) chronologies from multiple species and sites to investigate the seasonal climatic drivers of tree growth in the Bighorn Mountains, WY. A principal component analysis of the chronologies identified 54% of shared common variance (1894–2014). Tree growth (expressed by PC1) was driven by multiple seasonal climate variables: previous October and current July temperatures, as well as previous December and current April precipitation, had a positive influence on growth, whereas growth was limited by July precipitation. These seasonal growth-climate relationships corresponded to circulation patterns at higher atmospheric levels over the Bighorn Mountains. Tree growth was enhanced when the winter jet stream was in a northward position, which led to warmer winters, and when the spring jet stream was further south, which led to wetter springs. The second principal component, explaining 19% of the variance, clustered sites by elevation and was strongly related to summer temperature. We leverage this summer temperature signal in our TRW chronologies by combining it with an existing maximum latewood density (MXD) chronology in a nested approach. This allowed us to reconstruct Bighorn Mountains summer (June, July, and August) temperature (BMST) back to 1654, thus extending the instrumental temperature record by 250 years. Our BMST reconstruction explains 39–53% of the variance in regional summer temperature variability. The 1830s were the relatively coolest decade and the 1930s were the warmest decade over the reconstructed period (1654–1983 CE) – which excludes the most recent 3 decades. Our results contextualize recent drivers and trends of climate variability in the US Northern Rockies, which contributes to the information that managers of human and natural systems need in order to prepare for potential future variability.     

气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量影响的SWAT模拟

致洪暴雨主要是3天以上连续强降水,是淮河流域洪涝的直接原因。构建淮河流域中上游SWAT模型,用RegCM3在SRES A2排放情景下的模拟结果(2071-2100年)驱动SWAT模型,研究气候变化对淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量的影响。结果表明:(1)在SRES A2排放情景下,淮河流域中上游未来(2071-2100年)气温升高,降水量增加,降水的空间差异增大;颖河流域中游年降水量有较大幅度的减少,呈现暖干化的趋势;汛期极端过程降水增加,汛期最大9 d降水量平均增幅都在10%以上。(2)在SRES A2排放情景下的气候变化将导致淮河流域中上游汛期极端流量大幅度增加,干流5个水文站汛期最大9 d平均流量的增幅都在20%以上。(3)淮河流域中上游极端流量的概率分布更加集中,更大的极端流量出现的频率更高,研究流域下游更容易出现较大的极端流量。(4)研究流域下游极端流量概率对极端流量变化更敏感,下游也面临着更大的洪涝风险。     

Response of African humid tropical forests to recent rainfall anomalies

During the last decade, strong negative rainfall anomalies resulting from increased sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic have caused extensive droughts in rainforests of western Amazonia, exerting persistent effects on the forest canopy. In contrast, there have been no significant impacts on rainforests of West and Central Africa during the same period, despite large-scale droughts and rainfall anomalies during the same period. Using a combination of rainfall observations from meteorological stations from the Climate Research Unit (CRU; 1950–2009) and satellite observations of the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM; 1998–2010), we show that West and Central Africa experienced strong negative water deficit (WD) anomalies over the last decade, particularly in 2005, 2006 and 2007. These anomalies were a continuation of an increasing drying trend in the region that started in the 1970s. We monitored the response of forests to extreme rainfall anomalies of the past decade by analysing the microwave scatterometer data from QuickSCAT (1999–2009) sensitive to variations in canopy water content and structure. Unlike in Amazonia, we found no significant impacts of extreme WD events on forests of Central Africa, suggesting potential adaptability of these forests to short-term severe droughts. Only forests near the savanna boundary in West Africa and in fragmented landscapes of the northern Congo Basin responded to extreme droughts with widespread canopy disturbance that lasted only during the period of WD. Time-series analyses of CRU and TRMM data show most regions in Central and West Africa experience seasonal or decadal extreme WDs (less than −600 mm). We hypothesize that the long-term historical extreme WDs with gradual drying trends in the 1970s have increased the adaptability of humid tropical forests in Africa to droughts.     

鄱阳湖流域极端降水时空分布和非平稳性特征

全球变暖背景下的极端天气气候事件显著增加。本研究基于PreWhitening Mann-Kendall(PWMK)、极点对称模态分解法和广义可加模型,利用鄱阳湖流域1959—2019年16个国家级气象站点的逐日降水数据,从极端降水的强度、频率和持续性3个维度系统检测和分析流域极端降水的时空分布和非平稳性特征。结果表明: 研究期间,鄱阳湖流域极端降水强度和频率呈显著增加趋势,持续性呈下降趋势,极端降水整体表现出强度大、频率高、持续时间短的特点;极端降水存在明显的汛期和非汛期时间分异规律,汛期极端降水集中在流域北部和中部,而非汛期多集中于中部,子流域中信江流域降水量增加趋势最显著,达到2.10 mm·a^-1;汛期极端降水的持续时间越长,强度和范围越小,非汛期极端降水则相反;鄱阳湖流域的极端降水强度和频率以平稳性特征为主,持续性表现出非平稳性特征。随着鄱阳湖流域极端降水量的不断增加,其可能引发的灾害风险将进一步增大。     

Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit bluebird survival due to increasing variability in winter temperatures and the number of hot days, climatic variability negatively affected breeding parameters and is expected to increase. Because breeding parameters are typically the drivers of population growth rate in short-lived species, these results raise concern for the future of this population of eastern bluebirds.     

Climate change lengthens southeastern USA lightning‐ignited fire seasons

Trends in average annual or seasonal precipitation are insufficient for detecting changes in the climatic fire season, especially in regions where the fire season is defined by wet–dry seasonal cycles and lightning activity. Using an extensive dataset (1897–2017) in the Coastal Plain of the southeastern United States, we examined changes in annual dry season length, total precipitation, and (since 1945) the seasonal distribution of thunder‐days as a correlate of lightning activity. We found that across the entire region, the dry season has lengthened by as much as 156 days (130% over 120 years), both starting earlier and ending later with less total precipitation. Less rainfall over a longer dry season, with no change in seasonal thunderstorm patterns, likely increases both the potential for lightning‐ignited wildfires and fire severity. Global climate change could be having a hitherto undetected influence on fire regimes by altering the synchrony of climatic seasonal parameters.     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of global climate change. VI. Change characteristics of precipitation resource and its possible effect on maize production in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province

Based on the 1959-2007 daily precipitation data and 1983-2007 spring maize phenologyical data, the thresholds of extreme precipitation at different places in Sanjiang Plain of Heilongjiang Province were calculated by percentile method, and, in combining with the indices involving the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation, longest consecutive wet (dry) days, and contribution rate of extreme precipitation, the annual change characteristics of extreme precipitation, quantitative change of different grade precipitation, and distribution characteristics of extreme precipitation at each growth stage of spring maize were analyzed. In 1959-2007, the annual precipitation in Sanjiang Plain showed a slight decreasing trend, and the decreasing amplitude of precipitation days was much larger than that of precipitation. Accordingly, the annual distribution of precipitation tended to be more concentrated. The frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation declined, and the annual fluctuation of the frequency was bigger than that of the intensity. There was a slight decrease in the proportion of annual extreme precipitation to annual precipitation, but the decreasing tendency was not significant. The annual light rain days had a significant decreasing trend, but the annual moderate and heavy rain days didn't have. During spring maize growth season, the distribution ratio of extreme precipitation from high to low was reproductive growth stage, coexistence stage of vegetative growth and reproductive growth, vegetative growth stage, and premergence stage. There was a significant decrease in the proportion of the precipitation during spring maize growth season to annual precipitation, resulting in an increasing risk of precipitation scarcity during the growth season. The longest consecutive dry days during spring maize growth season showed a significant increasing trend, with the increment averaged 1.1 d x (10a)(-1), while the longest consecutive wet days showed a significant decreasing trend, with the decrement averaged 0.5 d x (10a)(-1). Under natural precipitation, the spring maize drought risk in the study region increased.     

Functional differences between summer and winter season rain assessed with MODIS‐derived phenology in a semi‐arid region

Questions: We asked several linked questions about phenology and precipitation relationships at local, landscape, and regional spatial scales within individual seasons, between seasons, and between year temporal scales. (1) How do winter and summer phenological patterns vary in response to total seasonal rainfall? (2) How are phenological rates affected by the previous season rainfall? (3) How does phenological variability differ at landscape and regional spatial scales and at season and inter‐annual temporal scales? Location: Southern Arizona, USA. Methods: We compared satellite‐derived phenological variation between 38 distinct 625‐km² landscapes distributed in the northern Sonoran Desert region from 2000 to 2007. Regression analyses were used to identify relationships between landscape phenology dynamics in response to precipitation variability across multiple spatial and temporal scales. Results: While both summer and winter seasons show increases of peak greenness and peak growth with more precipitation, the timing of peak growth was advanced with more precipitation in winter, while the timing of peak greenness was advanced with more precipitation in summer. Surprisingly, summer maximum growth was negatively affected by winter precipitation. The spatial variations between summer and winter phenology were similar in magnitude and response. Larger‐scale spatial and temporal variation showed strong differences in precipitation patterns; however the magnitudes of phenological spatial variability in these two seasons were similar. Conclusions: Vegetation patterns were clearly coupled to precipitation variability, with distinct responses at alternative spatial and temporal scales. Disaggregating vegetation into phenological variation, spanning value, timing, and integrated components revealed substantial complexity in precipitation‐phenological relationships.     

Liana abundance and diversity increase with rainfall seasonality along a precipitation gradient in Panama

In tropical regions, rainfall gradients often explain the abundance and distribution of plant species. For example, many tree and liana species adapted to seasonal drought are more abundant and diverse in seasonally-dry forests, characterized by long periods of seasonal water deficit. Mean annual precipitation (MAP) is commonly used to explain plant distributions across climate gradients. However, the relationship between MAP and plant distribution is often weak, raising the question of whether other seasonal precipitation patterns better explain plant distributions in seasonally-dry forests. In this study, we examine the relationship between liana abundance and multiple metrics of seasonal and annual rainfall distribution to test the hypothesis that liana density and diversity increase with increasing seasonal drought along a rainfall gradient across the isthmus of Panama. We found that a normalized seasonality index, which combines MAP and the variability of monthly rainfall throughout the year, was a significant predictor of both liana density and species richness, whereas MAP, rainfall seasonality and the mean dry season precipitation (MDP) were far weaker predictors. The strong response of lianas to the normalized seasonality index indicates that, in addition to the total annual amount of rainfall, how rainfall is distributed throughout the year is an important determinant of the hydrological conditions that favor liana proliferation. Our findings imply that changes in annual rainfall and rainfall seasonality will determine the future distribution and abundance of lianas. Models that aim to predict future plant diversity, distribution, and abundance may need to move beyond MAP to a more detailed understanding of rainfall variability at sub-annual timescales.     

Droughts,hydraulic redistribution,and their impact on vegetation composition in the Amazon forest

Hydraulic redistribution (HR), the nocturnal transport of moisture by plant roots from wetter to drier portions of the root zone, in general can buffer plants against seasonal water deficits. However, its role in longer droughts and its long-term ecological impact are not well understood. Based on numerical model experiments for the Amazon forest, this modeling study indicates that the impact of HR on plant growth differs between droughts of different time scales. While HR increases transpiration and plant growth during regular dry seasons, it reduces dry season transpiration and net primary productivity (NPP) under extreme droughts such as those during El Niño years in the Amazon forest. This occurs because, in places where soil water storage is not able to sustain the ecosystem through the dry season, the HR-induced acceleration of moisture depletion in the early stage of the dry season reduces water availability for the rest of the dry season and causes soil moisture to reach the wilting point earlier. This gets exacerbated during extreme droughts, which jeopardizes the growth of trees that are not in dry season dormancy, i.e., evergreen trees. As a result, the combination of drought and HR increases the percentage of drought deciduous trees at the expense of evergreen trees, and the fractional coverage of forest canopy is characterized by sudden drops following extreme droughts and slow recovery afterwards. The shift of the tropical forest towards more drought deciduous trees as a result of the combined effects of extreme drought and HR has important implications for how vegetation will respond to future climate changes.     

Evaluation of Potential Factors Predisposing Livestock to Predation by Jaguars

ABSTRACT Depredation of livestock by large carnivores is an important but poorly understood source of human-carnivore conflict. We examined patterns of livestock depredation by jaguars (Panthera onca) and pumas (Puma concolor) on a ranch-wildlife reserve in western Brazil to assess factors contributing to prey mortality. We predicted jaguars would kill a greater proportion of calves than yearling and adult cattle and that proximity to suitable habitat would increase mortality risk. We further speculated that exposure to predation risk would promote livestock grouping and increased movement distance. We recorded 169 cattle mortality incidents during 2003–2004, of which 19% were due to predation by jaguars and pumas. This level of mortality represented 0.2–0.3% of the total livestock holdings on the ranch. Jaguars caused most (69%) cattle predation events, and survival in allotments was lower for calves than for other age classes. Forest proximity was the only variable we found to explain patterns of livestock mortality, with predation risk increasing as distance to forest cover declined. Due to low predation risk, cattle movement patterns and grouping behavior did not vary relative to level of spatial overlap with radiocollared jaguars. The overall effect of predation on cattle was low and livestock likely constituted an alternative prey for large cats in our study area. However, selection of calves over other age cohorts and higher predation risk among cattle in proximity to forest cover is suggestive of selection of substandard individuals. Cattle ranchers in the Pantanal region may reduce cattle mortality rates by concentrating on losses due to nonpredation causes that could be more easily controlled.     

Precipitation Pattern Determines the Inter-annual Variation of Herbaceous Layer and Carbon Fluxes in a Phreatophyte-Dominated Desert Ecosystem

Arid and semi-arid ecosystems dominated by shrubby species are an important component in the global carbon cycle but are largely under-represented in studies of the effect of climate change on carbon flux. This study synthesizes data from long-term eddy covariance measurements and experiments to assess how changes in ecosystem composition, driven by precipitation patterns, affect inter-annual variability of carbon flux and their components in a halophyte desert community dominated by deep-rooted shrubs (phreatophytes, which depend on groundwater as their primary water source). Our results demonstrated that the carbon balance of this community responded strongly to precipitation variations. Both pre-growing season precipitation and growing season precipitation frequency significantly affected inter-annual variations in ecosystem carbon flux. Heavy pre-growing season precipitation (November–April, mostly as snow) increased annual net ecosystem carbon exchange, by facilitating the growth and carbon assimilation of shallow-rooted annual plants, which used spring and summer precipitation to increase community productivity. Sufficient pre-growing season precipitation led to more germination and growth of shallow-rooted annual plants. When followed by high-frequency growing season precipitation, community productivity of this desert ecosystem was lifted to the level of grassland or forest ecosystems. The long-term observations and experimental results confirmed that precipitation patterns and the herbaceous component were dominant drivers of the carbon dynamics in this phreatophyte-dominated desert ecosystem. This study illustrates the importance of inter-annual variations in climate and ecosystem composition for the carbon flux in arid and semi-arid ecosystems. It also highlights the important effect of changing frequency and seasonal pattern of precipitation on the regional and global carbon cycle in the coming decades.     

Spatiotemporal Variation and the Role of Wildlife in Seasonal Water Quality Declines in the Chobe River,Botswana

Sustainable management of dryland river systems is often complicated by extreme variability of precipitation in time and space, especially across large catchment areas. Understanding regional water quality changes in southern African dryland rivers and wetland systems is especially important because of their high subsistence value and provision of ecosystem services essential to both public and animal health. We quantified seasonal variation of Escherichia coli (E. coli) and Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in the Chobe River using spatiotemporal and geostatistical modeling of water quality time series data collected along a transect spanning a mosaic of protected, urban, and developing urban land use. We found significant relationships in the dry season between E. coli concentrations and protected land use (p = 0.0009), floodplain habitat (p = 0.016), and fecal counts from elephant (p = 0.017) and other wildlife (p = 0.001). Dry season fecal loading by both elephant (p = 0.029) and other wildlife (p = 0.006) was also an important predictor of early wet season E. coli concentrations. Locations of high E. coli concentrations likewise showed close spatial agreement with estimates of wildlife biomass derived from aerial survey data. In contrast to the dry season, wet season bacterial water quality patterns were associated only with TSS (p<0.0001), suggesting storm water and sediment runoff significantly influence E. coli loads. Our data suggest that wildlife populations, and elephants in particular, can significantly modify river water quality patterns. Loss of habitat and limitation of wildlife access to perennial rivers and floodplains in water-restricted regions may increase the impact of species on surface water resources. Our findings have important implications to land use planning in southern Africa’s dryland river ecosystems.     

Where buffalo and cattle meet: modelling interspecific contact risk using cumulative resistant kernels

African buffalo the primary source of foot and mouth disease (FMD) infection for livestock in South Africa. Predicting the spatial drivers and patterns of buffalo–cattle contact risk is crucial for developing effective FMD mitigation strategies. Therefore, the goal of this study was to predict fine‐scale, seasonal contact risk between cattle and buffaloes straying into communal lands adjacent to Kruger National Park. This study provides the first application of the cumulative resistant kernel method to calculate contact risk between two species. We built resistance surfaces from resource utilization models of buffalo and cattle and calculated the intersection of resistant kernels of the two species. This revealed that the contact risk is influenced by seasonality, water sources and fence strength, and the magnitude of contact risk is largely driven by buffalo and cattle dispersal abilities. The probability of contact was higher in the dry season, with hotspots along a main river and the weakest parts of the perimeter fence. In the wet season, contact risk was more diffuse and less concentrated along the main river and near settlements. The new approach of intersecting cumulative resistant kernels of two species can produce quantitative predictive maps of animals’ contact risk and help identify potential hotspots of disease transmission.     

Using dung beetles to evaluate the conversion effects from native to introduced pasture in the Brazilian Pantanal

The Pantanal is the largest Neotropical seasonal freshwater wetland on Earth. Extensive livestock production has been the dominant economic land use activity of the Pantanal, where approximately 80 % of the land is occupied by native and introduced pastures. However, the impact of native pasture conversion into introduced pasture on the biodiversity of this biome is little understood. Here we evaluate the effect of native pasture to introduced pasture conversion on dung beetle communities. We sampled dung beetles in July 2011 (dry season) and January 2012 (rainy season), at four native pasture sites and four introduced pasture sites in Aquidauana, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. The sampling was carried out using pitfall traps baited with three different bait types: carrion, cattle dung, and human feces. We sampled 7086 individuals, belonging to 32 species of 16 genera and six tribes of dung beetles. The abundance was similar among the pasture types. However, a higher species richness was found on the native pasture. Species composition also differed between the two pasture types in each sampling season. Additionally, the dominant functional guilds were different in the two landscapes. The result shows that the conversion of native grasslands into introduced pasture results in a decrease of species number and changes in species composition. These findings highlight the importance on native pasture to the conservation of dung beetle biodiversity in this ecosystem.     

Seasonal variations in the distribution and abundance of the tsetse fly,Glossina morsitans morsitans in eastern Zambia

The seasonal changes in the distribution of Glossina morsitans morsitans Westwood (Diptera: Glossinidae) and its main host, cattle, were examined in a cultivated area of the plateau of eastern Zambia. During four consecutive years, the tsetse and cattle populations were monitored along a fly-round transect traversing the two main vegetation types in the study area. These were miombo, a one-storied open woodland with the genera Brachystegia and Julbernardia dominant, and munga, a one- or two-storied woodland where the principal tree genera were Acacia, Combretum and Terminalia. Concurrently, a capture/mark/release/recapture (CMRR) exercise was conducted along two other transects also traversing both vegetation types. The index of apparent abundance of tsetse (IAA) in miombo increased at the beginning of the rainy season (November), reached its peak at the end of the rainy season (April) and was low during the cold season (May to late August), but especially the hot dry season (September to late October). The IAA of tsetse in munga showed a pattern that was the reverse of that in miombo. The seasonal changes in the IAA of tsetse in both vegetation types were in accordance with changes in the movement patterns of tsetse between the two vegetation type as observed using CMRR. The distribution and abundance of cattle along the transect also showed a seasonal trend. This was especially so in munga, during the first three years of observations, where cattle abundance increased gradually from June onwards, reached a maximum at the end of the hot dry season (October-November) and declined steeply at the start of the rainy season (November-December). In both vegetation types, the monthly mean IAA of tsetse was positively correlated with the abundance of cattle in the previous month. It is concluded that the distribution of tsetse in cultivated area of the eastern plateau of Zambia undergoes substantial seasonal changes, which can partly be attributed to changes in the distribution of cattle. The implications of these observations for the control of tsetse are discussed.     

1956-2009年内蒙古苏尼特左旗荒漠草原的降水格局

弄清全球变化背景下不同地区降水格局的变化对科学理解气候变化及其影响具有重要意义。苏尼特左旗荒漠草原是温带干旱半干旱地区的典型荒漠草原,对气候变化,特别是降水变化非常敏感。利用1956-2009年的日降水资料探讨了苏尼特左旗荒漠草原降水格局的变化规律,以为揭示气候变化的影响机制提供依据。结果表明,该地区年均降水量为191.9 mm,年际变化剧烈,变异系数达26.63%;年均降水日数为63.8 d,变异系数16.9%。生长季降水占全年的85%,但各月变异系数均>50%;降水日数占全年的63%。年和生长季的各月降水以中等降水量、弱降水日数为主,中等强度以上降水事件较少。近50 a来,年和生长季的降水量、降水日数与各等级降水事件均呈下降趋势,年降水减少的原因在于中等降水事件的减少、生长季降水减少的原因在于弱降水事件的减少。年降水减少将影响草地的土壤水分与植物返青;而生长季降水减少将直接影响草地固碳。气候变化背景下年与生长季降水的减少将进一步加剧该地区干旱程度并影响植物的生长发育,从而直接威胁到草地畜牧业的发展。