高寒草甸生态系统牲畜种群的线性规划模型和最优化利用策略

本文研究了高寒草甸生态系统牲畜种群的线性规划模型和最优利用策略。以门源马场牧场的实际数据作为模型的一个例子,分别提出了藏羊、改良羊和牦牛的最优种群结构和最优出栏方案。在改良羊、藏羊、牦牛和马为主的牧场上,改良羊是牧场上的主要牲畜,牦牛和马保持其数量下限,藏羊全部淘汰。在藏羊、牦牛和马为主的牧场上,藏羊是牧场上的主要牲畜,牦牛和马保持其数量下限。按照线性规划模型方案经营,可提高经济收益,并减轻冬舂草场上牲畜的过多采食。价格分析说明青海省现行的畜产品价格体系需要调整。     

望天树种群动态的初步研究

本文采用空间代替时间的方法组建了我国热带雨林的重要优势种望天树(Parashorea chinensis)种群的静态生命表,并建立了种群结构动态模型,种群材积动态模型和种群自疏模型。结果表明望天树种群现阶段足稳定型种群,具不断扩大的潜力;种群材积约170年前符合logistic增长,170年后材积下降;种群的自疏指数约为-2.1。     

一类捕食者具有阶段结构的捕食系统的全局稳定性分析

本文建立了一类捕食者具有阶段结构的捕食系统,计算得到了不存在食饵种群时捕食者种群模型和食饵种群存在时捕食系统的平衡点,并证明了平衡点的存在性.分析和比较了两个模型平衡点的全局稳定性,最终确定了决定模型全局稳定性的捕食者种群基本再生数、食饵灭绝与否的捕食率阈值以及捕食存在时食饵种群的净增长率.     

陕西不同地区栓皮栎种群年龄结构动态模型的研究

栓皮栎种群动态模型能阐明其自然种群动态的规律,揭示种群的内在机制和对种群行为进行预测。矩阵模型是一种i状态分布方法,依靠矩阵形式来处理种群的特征分布,可以模拟和预测种群中各个年龄组的数量动态和年龄结构的变化,它能够从目前已知的年龄结构及种群的生存率和生育率,来推测种群的未来年龄结构。在研究栓皮栎种群动态时,也借用该模型对栓皮栎种群各年龄组的结构和数量动态作出预测。Leslie矩阵模型就是该模型中的一种,利用该模型的理论和方法,对栓皮栎种群的自然变化过程进行了模拟和预测。结果发现,从分布中心到分布边缘,随着生境的差异,栓皮栎种群产生幼苗的年龄级、内禀增长率、生育力和幼苗的数量都发生变化,预测结果与实际反映的情况基本一致,表明Leslie矩阵模型是一种较为理想的反映种群动态的模型。模型表达形式简单,参数生态学意义确切,应用精度高,从而达到准确预测栓皮栎种群动态的目的。     

茂兰喀斯特山地广东松种群结构和动态初步研究

 广东松(Pinus kwangtungensis)是国家三类重点保护植物,为贵州茂兰国家自然保护区喀斯特山顶森林群落演替先锋树种和建群种之一。基于大小结构分析法、矩阵模型和分布格局距离方法,对茂兰喀斯特山地广东松种群结构和动态进行了初步研究。结果表明：(1)广东松种群大小结构近倒金字塔形,为中衰至衰退型种群;(2)广东松年龄(E)和胸径(D)的回归方程为E=59.968／(4.041-lnD);(3)广东松种群分布格局为斑块内种群个体集聚分布,斑块个体均匀分布;(4)广东松各径级度的种群密度(DS)随径级度(DG)呈S形变化,DS=1／(0.0584+0.018e-DG);(5)广东松种群为先锋种群,也能在山顶特殊生境中一定时期内与其它种群一起形成稳定群落;(6)分布格局距离方法能有效地用于亚热带森林树种的种群分布格局研究,矩阵模型能在—定程度上反映森林树种种群的数量和结构动态。     

海北藏系绵羊种群结构及其出栏方案最优化的探讨

配置畜群结构是管理畜牧生产最重要的工作之一。目前我国普遍存在着畜群结构不合理的现象。藏羊是我国第二大绵羊品种,其生产管理落后,种群结构普遍不合理。为组织合理生产,本文用系统分析的方法对藏羊种群结构进行了研究。首先,根据实地调查研究,作者构成了一个矩阵模型,以描述藏羊种群的性别年龄结构状态: N_(t+1)=AN_t-BU_t 其中AN_t反映羊群的自然变动情况,U_t是人为控制量。 然后,以最大羊产品收获为目标,以牧草资源和种群平衡态为限制条件,本文构造了一个线性规划模型,用以计算最优藏羊种群结构及其出栏方案; 除了给出模型这个研究种群结构问题的方法之外,本文使用线性规划模型,利用作者在青海省门源县风闸口地区调查测定的数据,通过计算机,算出了该地最优藏羊种群结构及其出栏方案。在最大能量收获的目标下。最优结构应为,67.80％的繁殖母羊,28.36％的后备母羊,3.84％的种公羊和后备种公 羊。相应出栏方案是每年秋季出栏全部羯羊羔和老弱羊,并且出栏33.17％的成年母羊。在这种方案下,按现有羊只生产能力,出栏率可提高到52.79％,平均从每百公斤牧草中收获合11.72千千卡能量或3.65公斤活重的羊产品。     

动物种群动态模型研究的进展与展望

动物种群动态模型经历了百余年的发展, 文章回顾和总结了其取得的丰富成果, 并展望其未来发展方向。种群动态包括种群数量动态和时空分布动态, 根据其形式和研究内容,可以将种群动态模型分为数量模型和空间模型。数学模型通过数学方程模拟种群数量的变化趋势, 它包括“J”型增长模型、“S”型增长模型和Lotka-Voltera模型等; 空间模型侧重于种群和生境的空间化表达, 包括异质种群模型、空间精确性种群模型和基于个体的种群模型等。种群动态模型在物种保护、气候变化和土地管理等方面都有成功应用。目前, 种群动态模型的空间描述能力不足, 未来与地理信息技术结合将有助于种群动态模型的进一步发展。     

Allee效应对具有生境恢复的集合种群的影响

Allee效应与种群的灭绝密切相关,其研究对生态保护和管理至关重要。Allee效应对物种续存是潜在的干扰因素,濒危物种更容易受其影响,可能会增加生存于生境破碎化斑块的濒危物种的死亡风险,因此研究Allee效应对种群的动态和续存的影响是必要的。从包含由生物有机体对环境的修复产生的Allee效应的集合种群模型出发,引入由其他机制形成的Allee效应,建立了常微分动力系统模型和基于网格模型的元胞自动机模型。通过理论分析和计算机模拟表明:(1)强Allee效应不利于具有生境恢复的集合种群的续存;(2)生境恢复有利于种群续存;(3)局部扩散影响了集合种群的空间结构、动态行为和稳定性,生境斑块之间的局部作用将会减缓或消除集合种群的Allee效应,有利于集合种群的续存。     

一个具有突变体的种群模型的变结构控制

基于一个具有突变体的种群模型,提出了相应的控制模型.根据变结构控制原理,针对控制模型,分别设计了变结构控制器和近似变结构控制器,使突变体灭绝.最后通过数值仿真,验证了所得结论的正确性.     

西双版纳不同斑块望天树种群的密度、结构和生物量

 根据5个不同斑块的野外调查数据,分析了残存分布在西双版纳的国家一级保护稀有树种望天树（Parashorea chinensis）的种群密度与数量、 年龄结构与生物量动态, 组建了不同生长发育阶段的望天树个体生长与年龄的回归模型、个体生物量模型及种群年龄结构模型, 编制了不同 斑块的望天树种群及整个种群的静态生命表、存活曲线和年龄结构图。结果表明,不同斑块的望天树种群因种群年龄及所受到的干扰方式的不 同,其种群密度和年龄结构差异很大,不同年龄阶段的死亡率也不同。面积最小的斑块缺乏成熟个体,并出现龄级结构缺省的现象。不同斑块 局部种群的生物量随林龄的变化近似于Logistic增长,但各斑块局部种群的最大生物量以及生物量随时间的动态变化有所不同。整个种群的年 龄结构为稳定增长型种群,1～60龄的种群个体的死亡率随林龄的增加而下降,60～150龄的个体死亡率随林龄的增加而上升,180 龄后种群呈 现生理衰退,个体出现死亡高峰。种群的生物量在180 龄前呈Logistic 增长,此后,生物量下降。部分斑块受到严重的人为干扰,已严重威胁 其局部种群的生存。     

Simulating the Distribution of Individual Livestock Farms and Their Populations in the United States: An Example Using Domestic Swine (Sus scrofa domesticus) Farms

Livestock distribution in the United States (U.S.) can only be mapped at a county-level or worse resolution. We developed a spatial microsimulation model called the Farm Location and Agricultural Production Simulator (FLAPS) that simulated the distribution and populations of individual livestock farms throughout the conterminous U.S. Using domestic pigs (Sus scrofa domesticus) as an example species, we customized iterative proportional-fitting algorithms for the hierarchical structure of the U.S. Census of Agriculture and imputed unpublished state- or county-level livestock population totals that were redacted to ensure confidentiality. We used a weighted sampling design to collect data on the presence and absence of farms and used them to develop a national-scale distribution model that predicted the distribution of individual farms at a 100 m resolution. We implemented microsimulation algorithms that simulated the populations and locations of individual farms using output from our imputed Census of Agriculture dataset and distribution model. Approximately 19% of county-level pig population totals were unpublished in the 2012 Census of Agriculture and needed to be imputed. Using aerial photography, we confirmed the presence or absence of livestock farms at 10,238 locations and found livestock farms were correlated with open areas, cropland, and roads, and also areas with cooler temperatures and gentler topography. The distribution of swine farms was highly variable, but cross-validation of our distribution model produced an area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve value of 0.78, which indicated good predictive performance. Verification analyses showed FLAPS accurately imputed and simulated Census of Agriculture data based on absolute percent difference values of < 0.01% at the state-to-national scale, 3.26% for the county-to-state scale, and 0.03% for the individual farm-to-county scale. Our output data have many applications for risk management of agricultural systems including epidemiological studies, food safety, biosecurity issues, emergency-response planning, and conflicts between livestock and other natural resources.     

Effects of Remedial Sport Hunting on Cougar Complaints and Livestock Depredations

Remedial sport hunting of predators is often used to reduce predator populations and associated complaints and livestock depredations. We assessed the effects of remedial sport hunting on reducing cougar complaints and livestock depredations in Washington from 2005 to 2010 (6 years). The number of complaints, livestock depredations, cougars harvested, estimated cougar populations, human population and livestock populations were calculated for all 39 counties and 136 GMUs (game management units) in Washington. The data was then analyzed using a negative binomial generalized linear model to test for the expected negative relationship between the number of complaints and depredations in the current year with the number of cougars harvested the previous year. As expected, we found that complaints and depredations were positively associated with human population, livestock population, and cougar population. However, contrary to expectations we found that complaints and depredations were most strongly associated with cougars harvested the previous year. The odds of increased complaints and livestock depredations increased dramatically (36 to 240%) with increased cougar harvest. We suggest that increased young male immigration, social disruption of cougar populations, and associated changes in space use by cougars - caused by increased hunting resulted in the increased complaints and livestock depredations. Widespread indiscriminate hunting does not appear to be an effective preventative and remedial method for reducing predator complaints and livestock depredations.     

Addressing management questions for Ngorongoro Conservation Area, Tanzania, using the Savanna modelling system

Ngorongoro Conservation Area (NCA), in northern Tanzania, is a multiple-use area of importance to Maasai pastoralists and wildlife conservation. We adapted the Savanna modelling system to the NCA, creating an Integrated Management and Assessment System that allows users to assess responses to alternative management actions. We used the system to conduct fifteen experiments reflecting potential management questions. Results suggest that: the distribution of rainfall throughout the year may have a greater impact on the ecosystem than its quantity; cattle may be near a carrying capacity determined not by forage limitations but because of disease risks; increasing survival and reducing disease in livestock yields greater returns than increasing birth rates; allowing livestock to graze in areas where they are currently excluded may lead to a slight increase in livestock populations, but sometimes leads to large declines in wildlife populations; few ecosystem effects were noted when households and cultivation were allowed to grow at 3% per year for 15 years; and when up to 5% of the study area was in cultivation, there were declines ≤16% in livestock and wildlife populations, except for elephants, which declined by 48%. Users may modify our experiments using tools we have developed, or address other NCA management questions.     

The role of livestock movements in the spread of Rift Valley fever virus in animals and humans in Mayotte, 2018–19

Rift Valley fever (RVF) is a vector-borne viral disease of major animal and public health importance. In 2018–19, it caused an epidemic in both livestock and human populations of the island of Mayotte. Using Bayesian modelling approaches, we assessed the spatio-temporal pattern of RVF virus (RVFV) infection in livestock and human populations across the island, and factors shaping it. First, we assessed if (i) livestock movements, (ii) spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, and (iii) livestock density were associated with the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into Mayotte communes’ livestock populations. Second, we assessed whether the rate of human infection was associated with (a) spatial proximity from and (b) livestock density of communes with infected animals. Our analyses showed that the temporal sequence of RVFV introduction into communes’ livestock populations was associated with livestock movements and spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with livestock movements being associated with the best model fit. Moreover, the pattern of human cases was associated with their spatial proximity from communes with infected animals, with the risk of human infection sharply increasing if livestock in the same or close communes were infected. This study highlights the importance of understanding livestock movement networks in informing the design of risk-based RVF surveillance programs.     

Effects of livestock farming on birds of rural areas in Europe

In the last decades, profound modifications of agricultural practices occurred in Europe, including the introduction of modern livestock farming. These modifications negatively affected the fauna of rural areas, as indicated by the large demographic declines suffered by several populations of birds typical of these habitats. The impact of agricultural practices on bird populations has been widely investigated, while the effect of livestock farming has seldom been assessed. To fill this gap, we carried out a quantitative meta-analysis of the existing scientific literature and evaluated the size of the effects of livestock farming on birds of rural areas in Europe. We only found 26 papers on this topic, from which 72 effect sizes could be estimated. The barn swallow (Hirundo rustica) was the species on which most studies focused. Livestock farming positively influenced presence and distribution of barn swallows in breeding habitats, while it did not significantly affect reproduction of this species. Effects on other bird species typical of rural habitats were non-significant. The positive effect on the insectivorous barn swallow might be mediated by the enhanced insect abundance where livestock is reared. In addition, habitat features typical of rural settings where livestock is reared (e.g. cattle-sheds or large hayfields) positively affected barn swallows independently of actual presence of livestock at a setting. Presence of livestock at rural setting therefore seems beneficial to barn swallows, but not significantly to other bird species typical of rural habitats. The effect of livestock farming on birds of rural habitats has been under-investigated to date.     

Stochastic dynamics of immunity in small populations: a general framework

Assessment of immunological status is a powerful tool in the surveillance and control of infectious pathogens in livestock and human populations. The distribution of immunity levels in the population provides information on time and age dependent transmission. A stochastic model is developed for a livestock population which relates the dynamics of the distribution of immunity levels at the population level to those of pathogen transmission. A general model with K immunity level categories is first proposed, taking into account the increase of the immunity level due to an infection or a re-exposure, the decrease of the immunity level with time since infection or exposure, and the effect of immunity level on the susceptibility and the infectivity of individuals. Numerical results are presented in the particular cases with K=2 and K=3 immunity level categories. We demonstrate that for a given distribution of the immunity levels at the population level, the model can be used to identify quantities such as most likely periods of time since introduction of infection. We discuss this approach in relation to analysis of serological data.     

Linkage disequilibrium and the genetic distance in livestock populations: the impact of inbreeding

Genome-wide linkage disequilibrium (LD) is subject to intensive investigation in human and livestock populations since it can potentially reveal aspects of a population history, permit to date them and help in fine-gene mapping. The most commonly used measure of LD between multiallelic loci is the coefficient D''. Data based on D'' were recently published in humans, livestock and model animals. However, the properties of this coefficient are not well understood. Its sampling distribution and variance has received recent attention, but its expected behaviour with respect to genetic or physical distance remains unknown. Using stochastic simulations of populations having a finite size, we show that D'' fits an exponential function having two parameters of simple biological interpretation: the residual value (rs) towards which D'' tends as the genetic distance increases and the distance R at which this value is reached. Properties of this model are evaluated as a function of the inbreeding coefficient (F). It was found that R and rs increase when F increases. The proposed model offers opportunities to better understand the patterns and the origins of LD in different populations and along different chromosomes.     

Planning for wolf-livestock coexistence: landscape context predicts livestock depredation risk in agricultural landscapes

Extensive pastoral livestock systems in Central Europe provide multiple ecosystem services and support biodiversity in agricultural landscapes but their viability is challenged by livestock depredation (LD) associated with the recovery of wolf populations. Variation in the spatial distribution of LD depends on a suite of factors, most of which are unavailable at the appropriate scales. To assess if LD patterns can be predicted sufficiently with land use data alone at the scale of one federal state in Germany, we employed a machine-learning-supported resource selection approach. The model used LD monitoring data, and publicly available land use data to describe the landscape configuration at LD and control sites (resolution 4 km * 4 km). We used SHapley Additive exPlanations to assess the importance and effects of landscape configuration and cross-validation to evaluate the model performance. Our model predicted the spatial distribution of LD events with a mean accuracy of 74%. The most influential land use features included grassland, farmland and forest. The risk of livestock depredation was high if these three landscape features co-occurred with a specific proportion. A high share of grassland, combined with a moderate proportion of forest and farmland, increased LD risk. We then used the model to predict the LD risk in five regions; the resulting risk maps showed high congruence with observed LD events. While of correlative nature and lacking specific information on wolf and livestock distribution and husbandry practices, our pragmatic modelling approach can guide spatial prioritisation of damage prevention or mitigation practices to improve livestock-wolf coexistence in agricultural landscapes.     

Genetic variation in populations of Culicoides variipennis complex in the six New England states, U.S.A.

Abstract. We investigated the identity and distribution of members of the Culicoides variipennis complex in the six New England states of the U.S.A., a region where bluetongue transmission has not been detected. Analyses of seven polymorphic isozyme-encoding loci showed that only C.v.variipennis , not considered to be a vector of the bluetongue viruses, was present. The populations of C.v.variipennis were significantly more hetero-zygous than C.v.sonorensis and Cv.occidentalis populations from similar studies in the state of California. Estimates of genetic diversity among populations of C.v.variipennis in New England were similar to C.v.sonorensis in the state of Colorado, but were significantly more genetically divergent than California populations of Cv.occidentalis. The impact of these findings on the status of New England as a possible bluetongue-free region for the purpose of international trade in ruminant livestock and their germplasm is discussed.