The use of inference strategies in the differential diagnosis of microcytic anemia

A new expert system developed on a Macintosh personal computer using a commercially available artificial intelligence shell was compared with four different discriminant functions (DFs) for the differentiation of microcytic anemia into etiologic categories. Several databases were used with a different composition but all contained at least some samples from thalassemic individuals and from patients with iron deficiency anemia. The DFs analyzed were those proposed by England and Fraser, Green and colleagues, Mentzer, and by Shine and Lal. None of the databases performed satisfactorily when used singly, whereas very high false-positive rates were obtained by one of them. The diagnostic efficiency was somewhat improved by combining several DFs. An expert system using an artificial intelligence "shell" with an "interference engine" was developed using cluster analysis and a set of learning examples. The input necessary for the system to achieve a conclusion consists of MCV, RBC, and RDW as well as a statement as to whether the patient has anemia. Based upon the values of these parameters, the expert system will give an "advice" regarding the probabilities for thalassemia, iron deficiency, and/or other probabilities such as previous transfusions, anemia of chronic disease, laboratory error, etc. In a prospective trial, the system functioned with an accuracy of better than 85%.     

The ecology of sewage treatment gradients in relation to their use by waterbirds

The distribution and abundance of waterbirds along sewage treatment gradients at the Western Treatment Plant (Victoria, Australia) were studied in late summer/early autumn 2000. In general, the highest densities and diversity of waterbirds, and of zooplankton, were found in the ponds towards the end of a treatment series. Filter-feeding waterfowl (Anatidae) probably used these ponds because of the availability of zooplankton as a food-source. Dissolved oxygen concentration generally increased along the treatment gradient and un-ionised sulphide concentration decreased, and it is possible that either one, or both, of these played a key role in determining the distribution of zooplankton.     

Some experiences in the estimation of parameters in non-linear differential equations

The author describes a procedure developed by himself and his colleagues for obtaining estimates of the parameters of rate equations, together with information about confidence regions for the estimates. The program has been used successfully for processing results from the chemical engineering industry, with highly non-linear model systems, particularly since temperature was a variable, and the "rate constants" were non-linear combinations of other constants. In biochemical situations, in which investigations are almost always at constant temperature, the non-linearity should not be so extreme, and the procedure may well be capable of dealing with more than 5 to 7 parameters for which it is recommended.