Drought mildly reduces plant dominance in a temperate prairie ecosystem across years

1. Shifts in dominance and species reordering can occur in response to global change. However, it is not clear how altered precipitation and disturbance regimes interact to affect species composition and dominance.
2. We explored community‐level diversity and compositional similarity responses, both across and within years, to a manipulated precipitation gradient and annual clipping in a mixed‐grass prairie in Oklahoma, USA. We imposed seven precipitation treatments (five water exclusion levels [?20%, ?40%, ?60%, ?80%, and ?100%], water addition [+50%], and control [0% change in precipitation]) year‐round from 2016 to 2018 using fixed interception shelters. These treatments were crossed with annual clipping to mimic hay harvest.
3. We found that community‐level responses were influenced by precipitation across time. For instance, plant evenness was enhanced by extreme drought treatments, while plant richness was marginally promoted under increased precipitation.
4. Clipping promoted species gain resulting in greater richness within each experimental year. Across years, clipping effects further reduced the precipitation effects on community‐level responses (richness and evenness) at both extreme drought and added precipitation treatments.
5. Synthesis: Our results highlight the importance of studying interactive drivers of change both within versus across time. For instance, clipping attenuated community‐level responses to a gradient in precipitation, suggesting that management could buffer community‐level responses to drought. However, precipitation effects were mild and likely to accentuate over time to produce further community change.

     

Glacial loss and its effect on riparian vegetation of alpine streams

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Geographical variation and environmental correlates of functional trait distributions in palms (Arecaceae) across the New World

Functional traits play a key role in driving biodiversity effects on ecosystem functioning. Here, we examine the geographical distributions of three key functional traits in New World palms (Arecaceae), an ecologically important plant group, and their relationships with current climate, soil and glacial–interglacial climate change. We combined range maps for the New World (N = 541 palm species) with data on traits (leaf size, stem height and fruit size), representing the leaf–height–seed plant strategy scheme of Westoby, to estimate median trait values for palm species assemblages in 110 × 110‐km grid cells. Spatial and non‐spatial multi‐predictor regressions were used with the Akaike Information Criterion to identify minimum adequate models. Present‐day seasonality in temperature and precipitation played a major role in explaining geographical variation of all traits. Mean annual temperature and annual precipitation were additionally important for median leaf size. Glacial–interglacial temperature change was the most important predictor for median fruit size. Large‐scale soil gradients played only a minor role overall. These results suggest that current climate (larger median trait values with increasing seasonality) and glacial–interglacial temperature change (larger median fruit size with increasing Quaternary temperature anomaly) are important drivers for functional trait distributions of New World palms. © 2015 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2015, 179 , 602–617.     

Relationships between stream macroinvertebrate communities and new flood‐based indices of glacial influence

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Estimating population density of insectivorous bats based on stationary acoustic detectors: A case study

1. Automated recording units are commonly used by consultants to assess environmental impacts and to monitor animal populations. Although estimating population density of bats using stationary acoustic detectors is key for evaluating environmental impacts, estimating densities from call activity data is only possible through recently developed numerical methods, as the recognition of calling individuals is impossible.
2. We tested the applicability of generalized random encounter models (gREMs) for determining population densities of three bat species (Common pipistrelle Pipistrellus pipistrellus, Northern bat Eptesicus nilssonii, and Natterer's bat Myotis nattereri) based on passively collected acoustical data. To validate the results, we compared them to (a) density estimates from the literature and to (b) Royle–Nichols (RN) models of detection/nondetection data.
3. Our estimates for M. nattereri matched both the published data and RN‐model results. For E. nilssonii, the gREM yielded similar estimates to the RN‐models, but the published estimates were more than twice as high. This discrepancy might be because the high‐altitude flight of E. nilssonii is not accounted for in gREMs. Results of gREMs for P. pipistrellus were supported by published data but were ~10 times higher than those of RN‐models. RN‐models use detection/nondetection data, and this loss of information probably affected population estimates of very active species like P. pipistrellus.
4. gREM models provided realistic estimates of bat population densities based on automatically recorded call activity data. However, the average flight altitude of species should be accounted for in future analyses. We suggest including flight altitude in the calculation of the detection range to assess the detection sphere more accurately and to obtain more precise density estimates.

     

The effects of the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles on Anatolian ground squirrels: range expansion during the glacial periods?

The present study aimed to understand how Anatolian ground squirrels, Spermophilus xanthoprymnus (Bennett, 1835), have responded to global climate changes through the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles. Accordingly, ecological niche modelling was used, together with molecular phylogeography. Using species occurrence data compiled from field observations and relevant sources and the maximum entropy machine learning algorithm in MAXENT, an ecological niche model was developed to predict the potential geographical distribution of S. xanthoprymnus under reconstructed past (the Last Interglacial, approximately 130 000–116 000 years ago and the Last Glacial Maximum, 21 000 years ago) and present (1950–2000) bioclimatic conditions. In addition, using cytochrome b mitochondrial DNA sequences deposited in GenBank and the Bayesian skyline plot in BEAST, demographic events (population fluctuations) were further assessed over the history of Anatolian ground squirrels. Combined ecological niche modelling and molecular phylogeography revealed that S. xanthoprymnus, itself also a temperate (mid‐latitude) species, has responded to global climate changes through the Late Quaternary glacial–interglacial cycles in a fashion converse to that of most temperate (mid‐latitude) species: its range expanded rather than contracted during the glacial periods and contracted rather than expanded during the interglacial periods. In other words, Anatolian ground squirrels have been in refugia during the interglacial periods, suggesting that the classical paradigm of glacial range contraction and interglacial range expansion for temperate species may not be as general as previously assumed. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 109 , 19–32.     

New technologies in the mix: Assessing N‐mixture models for abundance estimation using automated detection data from drone surveys

1. Reliable estimates of abundance are critical in effectively managing threatened species, but the feasibility of integrating data from wildlife surveys completed using advanced technologies such as remotely piloted aircraft systems (RPAS) and machine learning into abundance estimation methods such as N‐mixture modeling is largely unknown due to the unique sources of detection errors associated with these technologies.
2. We evaluated two modeling approaches for estimating the abundance of koalas detected automatically in RPAS imagery: (a) a generalized N‐mixture model and (b) a modified Horvitz–Thompson (H‐T) estimator method combining generalized linear models and generalized additive models for overall probability of detection, false detection, and duplicate detection. The final estimates from each model were compared to the true number of koalas present as determined by telemetry‐assisted ground surveys.
3. The modified H‐T estimator approach performed best, with the true count of koalas captured within the 95% confidence intervals around the abundance estimates in all 4 surveys in the testing dataset (n = 138 detected objects), a particularly strong result given the difficulty in attaining accuracy found with previous methods.
4. The results suggested that N‐mixture models in their current form may not be the most appropriate approach to estimating the abundance of wildlife detected in RPAS surveys with automated detection, and accurate estimates could be made with approaches that account for spurious detections.

     

Climate and CO2 controls on global vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum: analysis based on palaeovegetation data, biome modelling and palaeoclimate simulations

The global vegetation response to climate and atmospheric CO₂ changes between the last glacial maximum and recent times is examined using an equilibrium vegetation model (BIOME4), driven by output from 17 climate simulations from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project. Features common to all of the simulations include expansion of treeless vegetation in high northern latitudes; southward displacement and fragmentation of boreal and temperate forests; and expansion of drought‐tolerant biomes in the tropics. These features are broadly consistent with pollen‐based reconstructions of vegetation distribution at the last glacial maximum. Glacial vegetation in high latitudes reflects cold and dry conditions due to the low CO₂ concentration and the presence of large continental ice sheets. The extent of drought‐tolerant vegetation in tropical and subtropical latitudes reflects a generally drier low‐latitude climate. Comparisons of the observations with BIOME4 simulations, with and without consideration of the direct physiological effect of CO₂ concentration on C₃ photosynthesis, suggest an important additional role of low CO₂ concentration in restricting the extent of forests, especially in the tropics. Global forest cover was overestimated by all models when climate change alone was used to drive BIOME4, and estimated more accurately when physiological effects of CO₂ concentration were included. This result suggests that both CO₂ effects and climate effects were important in determining glacial‐interglacial changes in vegetation. More realistic simulations of glacial vegetation and climate will need to take into account the feedback effects of these structural and physiological changes on the climate.     

Range expansion of the small spruce bark beetle Ips amitinus: a newcomer in northern Europe

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Climate change and the outbreak ranges of two North American bark beetles

Abstract

• 1 One expected effect of global climate change on insect populations is a shift in geographical distributions toward higher latitudes and higher elevations. Southern pine beetle Dendroctonus frontalis and mountain pine beetle Dendroctonus ponderosae undergo regional outbreaks that result in large‐scale disturbances to pine forests in the south‐eastern and western United States, respectively.
• 2 Our objective was to investigate potential range shifts under climate change of outbreak areas for both bark beetle species and the areas of occurrence of the forest types susceptible to them.
• 3 To project range changes, we used discriminant function models that incorporated climatic variables. Models to project bark beetle ranges employed changed forest distributions as well as changes in climatic variables.
• 4 Projected outbreak areas for southern pine beetle increased with higher temperatures and generally shifted northward, as did the distributions of the southern pine forests.
• 5 Projected outbreak areas for mountain pine beetle decreased with increasing temperature and shifted toward higher elevation. That trend was mirrored in the projected distributions of pine forests in the region of the western U.S. encompassed by the study.
• 6 Projected outbreak areas for the two bark beetle species and the area of occurrence of western pine forests increased with more precipitation and decreased with less precipitation, whereas the area of occurrence of southern pine forests decreased slightly with increasing precipitation.
• 7 Predicted shifts of outbreak ranges for both bark beetle species followed general expectations for the effects of global climate change and reflected the underlying long‐term distributional shifts of their host forests.

     

Effects of altered precipitation on insect community composition and structure in a meadow steppe

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Phylogeography and taxonomy of the Psorodonotus caucasicus (Orthoptera,Tettigoniidae) group: independent double invasion of the Balkans from the Caucasus

High mountain ranges within and around Anatolia have played an important role in the biogeography of mountainous organisms, which are threatened by climate change. Using the Psorodonotus caucasicus species group (PCG), whose range is the Caucasus, Anatolia and the Balkans, as a model group, this study aims to determine the importance of Anatolian mountain ranges and to estimate possible future effects of global warming on such lineages by establishing an analogy between interglacial dynamics and global warming. Twenty populations, representing all extant species of the PCG, were studied. Sequences of four mitochondrial loci and three nuclear loci were obtained and used in phylogenetic, time estimation and phylogeographic analyses of PCG members. Additionally, ecological modelling analyses were conducted to estimate the range of PCG members at present and during the last glacial maximum and the last interglacial, with the aim of determining the roles of altitudes and glacial cycles in shaping the distribution of the PCG. Phylogenetic analyses supported the monophyly of the PCG as a whole and each individual species with the exception of P. suphani. The radiation of the PCG started approximately 3 Ma, according to beast . Species distribution models suggested a wider range during the last glacial maximum than during the last interglacial and at present, but these models also suggested that present conditions represent a substantial range loss. The PCG dispersed to the Balkans through two independent corridors from the Caucasus. The following conclusions were reached based on the results: (i) the uplift of the Pontic and East Anatolian Blocks during the mid‐Pliocene and the closing of the Mediterranean and the Paratethys connection in the Plio–Pleistocene and the mid‐Pleistocene Transition are the main events that triggered the radiation of the PCG; (ii) the PCG radiated from a Caucasian origin and invaded the Balkans twice, first through Northern Anatolia and second via the ‘Taurus Way’ dispersal corridor; (iii) lowlands are a barrier to the dispersal of PCG members; (iv) the last four intense glacial periods had little effect on the radiation of the PCG; (v) the range of the PCG has receded substantially from its original southern margin, and P. salmani and P. anatolicus have become extinct since the 1950s, possibly because of global warming; and (vi) automatic species delimitation tests supported species status of the morphospecies P. caucasicus, P. macedonicus, P. fieberi, P. illyricus and P. ebneri, but not that of P. suphani, thus, P. suphani Taylan & Sirin, 2014 syn.n. synonymized with P. caucasicus (Fischer von Waldheim, 1846).     

Does rapid glacial recession affect feeding habits of alpine stream insects?

1. Glacial retreat, accompanied by shifts in riparian vegetation and glacier meltwater inputs, alters the energy supply and trophic structure of alpine stream food webs. Our goal in this study was to enhance understanding of dietary niches of macroinvertebrates inhabiting different alpine streams with contrasting glacial and non‐glacial (groundwater, precipitation, snowmelt) water inputs in conjunction with seasonal and habitat‐specific variation in basal resource availability.
2. We measured a range of stream physico‐chemical attributes as well as carbon and nitrogen isotopes (δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N) of macroinvertebrates and primary food sources at seven sites across seasons within a Swiss glaciated catchment (Val Roseg) undergoing rapid glacial retreat (1–2 km between 1997 and 2014). Sampling sites corresponded to streams used in a previous (1997/1998) study within the same alpine catchment.
3. Physico‐chemical attributes showed wide variation in environmental conditions across streams and seasons. Significant correlation among physico‐chemical proxies of glacier meltwater (phosphate‐P, total inorganic carbon, conductivity, turbidity) and macroinvertebrate δ¹³C, δ¹⁵N, and size‐corrected standard ellipse area (a proxy for feeding niche width) values showed that the extent of glacial water input shapes the energy base among alpine streams. Feeding niche differences among common alpine stream insect taxa (Chironomidae, Baetidae, Heptageniidae) were not significant, indicating that these organisms probably are plastic in feeding behaviour, opportunistically relying on food resources available in a particular stream and season.
4. Seasonal trends in macroinvertebrate δ¹³C largely followed patterns in periphyton δ¹³C values, indicating that autochthonous resources were the main consumer energy source within the stream network, as shown previously. The overall range in macroinvertebrate δ¹³C (?33.5 to ?18.4‰) and δ¹⁵N (?6.9 to 6.7‰) values also corresponded to values measured in the previous study, suggesting that macroinvertebrates altered diets in line with changes in environmental conditions and food resources during a period of rapid glacial retreat. Our results suggest that environmental changes brought on by rapid glacial retreat have not yet caused a profound change in the trophic structure within these fluvial networks.

     

Post‐glacial distribution of a Mongolian mayfly inferred from population genetic analysis

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Native brook trout and invasive rainbow trout respond differently to seasonal weather variation: Spawning timing matters

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Leaf area index for northern and eastern North America at the Last Glacial Maximum: a data–model comparison

Aim To estimate the effects of full‐glacial atmospheric CO₂ concentrations and climate upon leaf area index (LAI), using both global vegetation models and palaeoecological data. Prior simulations indicate lowered LAIs at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), but this is the first attempt to corroborate predictions against observations. Location Eastern North America and eastern Beringia. Methods Using a dense surface pollen data set and remotely sensed LAIs from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instrument, we evaluate the ability of analogue‐based techniques to reconstruct modern LAIs from pollen data. We then apply analogue techniques to LGM pollen records, calculate the ratio of LGM to modern LAIs (RLAI) and compare reconstructed RLAIs to RLAIs simulated by BIOME4. Sensitivity experiments with BIOME4 distinguish the effects of CO₂ and climate on glacial LAIs. Results Modern LAIs are skilfully predicted (r²= 0.83). Data and BIOME4 indicate that LAIs at the LGM were up to 12% lower than modern values in eastern North America and 60–94% lower in Beringia. In eastern North America, LGM climates partially counteracted CO₂‐driven decreases in LAI, while in Beringia both contributed to lowered LAIs. Main conclusions In both regions climate is the primary driver of LGM LAIs. The decline in eastern North America LAIs is smaller than previously reported, so regional vegetation feedbacks to LGM climate may have been less significant than previously supposed. CO₂ exerts both physiological and community effects upon LAI, by regulating resource availability for leaf production and by influencing the competitive balance among species and hence the composition and structure of plant communities. Pollen‐based reconstructions using analogue methods do not incorporate the physiological effect and so are upper estimates of full‐glacial LAIs. BIOME4 sensitivity experiments indicate that the community and physiological effects together caused 10% to 20% decrease in LAIs at the LGM, so simulated RLAIs that are 80–100% of reconstructed RLAIs are regarded as consistent with data.     

Climate refugia and migration requirements in complex landscapes

All of today's species have proven their ability to cope with climate change during the glacial‐interglacial cycles of the Quaternary, but future migration requirements may be different regarding speed, direction, geographic barriers, and availability of nearby climate refugia. Here, we contribute a landscape‐level climatic analysis of postglacial vs. projected future migration requirements for 24 common western North American tree species. Using a recently developed velocity of climate change algorithm, we quantify required migration velocities for all populations of species to track climate habitat, based on projections from general circulation models for the 2080s and the last glacial maximum, 21 000 yr ago. Specifically, we ask if nearby climate refugia exist for at least some populations within species ranges and whether the current landscape position of species imply qualitatively different migration requirements in the future compared to those during glacial‐interglacial cycles. Results showed that velocities to reach the nearest climate refugia in the future still exceed the fastest reconstructed post‐glacial migration requirements, but not by orders of magnitude. Regarding landscape positions, we find a low correlation among past and future migration requirements (r = 0.38), suggesting that qualitatively different migration patterns may emerge in the future for some species. Species identified as occupying landscape positions requiring disproportionally faster migration requirements in the future include whitebark pine, pinyon pine, and coast redwood. We discuss uncertainties of our analytical approach as well as implications for human‐assisted migration and conservation action to address climate change.     

Plant functional trait response to environmental drivers across European temperate forest understorey communities

• Functional traits respond to environmental drivers, hence evaluating trait‐environment relationships across spatial environmental gradients can help to understand how multiple drivers influence plant communities. Global‐change drivers such as changes in atmospheric nitrogen deposition occur worldwide, but affect community trait distributions at the local scale, where resources (e.g. light availability) and conditions (e.g. soil pH) also influence plant communities.
• We investigate how multiple environmental drivers affect community trait responses related to resource acquisition (plant height, specific leaf area (SLA), woodiness, and mycorrhizal status) and regeneration (seed mass, lateral spread) of European temperate deciduous forest understoreys. We sampled understorey communities and derived trait responses across spatial gradients of global‐change drivers (temperature, precipitation, nitrogen deposition, and past land use), while integrating in‐situ plot measurements on resources and conditions (soil type, Olsen phosphorus (P), Ellenberg soil moisture, light, litter mass, and litter quality).
• Among the global‐change drivers, mean annual temperature strongly influenced traits related to resource acquisition. Higher temperatures were associated with taller understoreys producing leaves with lower SLA, and a higher proportional cover of woody and obligate mycorrhizal (OM) species. Communities in plots with higher Ellenberg soil moisture content had smaller seeds and lower proportional cover of woody and OM species. Finally, plots with thicker litter layers hosted taller understoreys with larger seeds and a higher proportional cover of OM species.
• Our findings suggest potential community shifts in temperate forest understoreys with global warming, and highlight the importance of local resources and conditions as well as global‐change drivers for community trait variation.

     

Census data aggregation decisions can affect population‐level inference in heterogeneous populations

1. Conservation and population management decisions often rely on population models parameterized using census data. However, the sampling regime, precision, sample size, and methods used to collect census data are usually heterogeneous in time and space. Decisions about how to derive population‐wide estimates from this patchwork of data are complicated and may bias estimated population dynamics, with important implications for subsequent management decisions.
2. Here, we explore the impact of site selection and data aggregation decisions on pup survival estimates, and downstream estimates derived from parameterized matrix population models (MPMs), using a long‐term dataset on grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) pup survival from southwestern Wales. The spatiotemporal and methodological heterogeneity of the data are fairly typical for ecological census data and it is, therefore, a good model to address this topic.
3. Data were collected from 46 sampling locations (sites) over 25 years, and we explore the impact of data handling decisions by varying how years and sampling locations are combined to parameterize pup survival in population‐level MPMs. We focus on pup survival because abundant high‐quality data are available on this developmental stage.
4. We found that survival probability was highly variable with most variation being at the site level, and poorly correlated among sampling sites. This variation could generate marked differences in predicted population dynamics depending on sampling strategy. The sample size required for a confident survival estimate also varied markedly geographically.
5. We conclude that for populations with highly variable vital rates among sub‐populations, site selection and data aggregation methods are important. In particular, including peripheral or less frequently used areas can introduce substantial variation into population estimates. This is likely to be context‐dependent, but these choices, including the use of appropriate weights when summarizing across sampling areas, should be explored to ensure that management actions are successful.