Additive genetic variance for lifetime fitness and the capacity for adaptation in an annual plant

The immediate capacity for adaptation under current environmental conditions is directly proportional to the additive genetic variance for fitness, V_A(W). Mean absolute fitness, , is predicted to change at the rate , according to Fisher's Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection. Despite ample research evaluating degree of local adaptation, direct assessment of V_A(W) and the capacity for ongoing adaptation is exceedingly rare. We estimated V_A(W) and in three pedigreed populations of annual Chamaecrista fasciculata, over three years in the wild. Contrasting with common expectations, we found significant V_A(W) in all populations and years, predicting increased mean fitness in subsequent generations (0.83 to 6.12 seeds per individual). Further, we detected two cases predicting “evolutionary rescue,” where selection on standing V_A(W) was expected to increase fitness of declining populations (< 1.0) to levels consistent with population sustainability and growth. Within populations, inter‐annual differences in genetic expression of fitness were striking. Significant genotype‐by‐year interactions reflected modest correlations between breeding values across years, indicating temporally variable selection at the genotypic level that could contribute to maintaining V_A(W). By directly estimating V_A(W) and total lifetime , our study presents an experimental approach for studies of adaptive capacity in the wild.     

Quantitative genetic study of the adaptive process

The additive genetic variance with respect to absolute fitness, V_A(W), divided by mean absolute fitness, , sets the rate of ongoing adaptation. Fisher''s key insight yielding this quantitative prediction of adaptive evolution, known as the Fundamental Theorem of Natural Selection, is well appreciated by evolutionists. Nevertheless, extremely scant information about V_A(W) is available for natural populations. Consequently, the capacity for fitness increase via natural selection is unknown. Particularly in the current context of rapid environmental change, which is likely to reduce fitness directly and, consequently, the size and persistence of populations, the urgency of advancing understanding of immediate adaptive capacity is extreme. We here explore reasons for the dearth of empirical information about V_A(W), despite its theoretical renown and critical evolutionary role. Of these reasons, we suggest that expectations that V_A(W) is negligible, in general, together with severe statistical challenges of estimating it, may largely account for the limited empirical emphasis on it. To develop insight into the dynamics of V_A(W) in a changing environment, we have conducted individual-based genetically explicit simulations. We show that, as optimizing selection on a trait changes steadily over generations, V_A(W) can grow considerably, supporting more rapid adaptation than would the V_A(W) of the base population. We call for direct evaluation of V_A(W) and in support of prediction of rates adaptive evolution, and we advocate for the use of aster modeling as a rigorous basis for achieving this goal.     

The effect of trait type and strength of selection on heritability and evolvability in an island bird population

The heritability (h²) of fitness traits is often low. Although this has been attributed to directional selection having eroded genetic variation in direct proportion to the strength of selection, heritability does not necessarily reflect a trait's additive genetic variance and evolutionary potential (“evolvability”). Recent studies suggest that the low h² of fitness traits in wild populations is caused not by a paucity of additive genetic variance (V_A) but by greater environmental or nonadditive genetic variance (V_R). We examined the relationship between h² and variance‐standardized selection intensities (i or β_σ), and between evolvability (I_A:V_A divided by squared phenotypic trait mean) and mean‐standardized selection gradients (β_μ). Using 24 years of data from an island population of Savannah sparrows, we show that, across diverse traits, h² declines with the strength of selection, whereas I_A and I_R (V_R divided by squared trait mean) are independent of the strength of selection. Within trait types (morphological, reproductive, life‐history), h², I_A, and I_R are all independent of the strength of selection. This indicates that certain traits have low heritability because of increased residual variance due to the age at which they are expressed or the multiple factors influencing their expression, rather than their association with fitness.     

Effect of migration and environmental heterogeneity on the maintenance of quantitative genetic variation: a simulation study

The paradox of high genetic variation observed in traits under stabilizing selection is a long‐standing problem in evolutionary theory, as mutation rates appear too low to explain observed levels of standing genetic variation under classic models of mutation–selection balance. Spatially or temporally heterogeneous environments can maintain more standing genetic variation within populations than homogeneous environments, but it is unclear whether such conditions can resolve the above discrepancy between theory and observation. Here, we use individual‐based simulations to explore the effect of various types of environmental heterogeneity on the maintenance of genetic variation (V_A) for a quantitative trait under stabilizing selection. We find that V_A is maximized at intermediate migration rates in spatially heterogeneous environments and that the observed patterns are robust to changes in population size. Spatial environmental heterogeneity increased variation by as much as 10‐fold over mutation–selection balance alone, whereas pure temporal environmental heterogeneity increased variance by only 45% at max. Our results show that some combinations of spatial heterogeneity and migration can maintain considerably more variation than mutation–selection balance, potentially reconciling the discrepancy between theoretical predictions and empirical observations. However, given the narrow regions of parameter space required for this effect, this is unlikely to provide a general explanation for the maintenance of variation. Nonetheless, our results suggest that habitat fragmentation may affect the maintenance of V_A and thereby reduce the adaptive capacity of populations.     

Selection,structure and the heritability of behaviour

Characters which are closely linked to fitness often have low heritabilities (V_A/V_P). Low heritabilities could be because of low additive genetic variation (V_A), that had been depleted by directional selection. Alternatively, low heritabilities may be caused by large residual variation (V_R=V_P – V_A) compounded at a disproportionately higher rate than V_A across integrated characters. Both hypotheses assume that each component of quantitative variation has an independent effect on heritability. However, V_A and V_R may also covary, in which case differences in heritability cannot be fully explained by the independent effects of elimination‐selection or compounded residual variation. We compared the central tendency of published behavioural heritabilities (mean=0.31, median=0.23) with morphological and life history data collected by 26 ). Average behavioural heritability was not significantly different from average life history heritability, but both were smaller than average morphological heritability. We cross‐classified behavioural traits to test whether variation in heritability was related to selection (dominance, domestic/wild) or variance compounding (integration level). There was a significant three‐way interaction between indices of selection and variance compounding, related to the absence of either effect at the highest integration level. At lower integration levels, high dominance variance indicated effects of selection. It was also indicated by the low CV_A of domestic species. At the same time CV_R increased disproportionately faster than CV_A across integration levels, demonstrating variance compounding. However, neither CV_R nor CV_A had a predominant effect on heritability. The partial regression coefficients of CV_R and CV_A on heritability were similar and a path analysis indicated that their (positive) correlation was also necessary to explain variation in heritability. These results suggest that relationships between additive genetic and residual components of quantitative genetic variation can constrain their independent direct effects on behavioural heritability.     

Genetic variance in fitness and its cross-sex covariance predict adaptation during experimental evolution

The additive genetic variation (V_A) of fitness in a population is of particular importance to quantify its adaptive potential and predict its response to rapid environmental change. Recent statistical advances in quantitative genetics and the use of new molecular tools have fostered great interest in estimating fitness V_A in wild populations. However, the value of V_A for fitness in predicting evolutionary changes over several generations remains mostly unknown. In our study, we addressed this question by combining classical quantitative genetics with experimental evolution in the model organism Tribolium castaneum (red flour beetle) in three new environmental conditions (Dry, Hot, Hot-Dry). We tested for potential constraints that might limit adaptation, including environmental and sex genetic antagonisms captured by negative genetic covariance between environments and female and male fitness, respectively. Observed fitness changes after 20 generations mainly matched our predictions. Given that body size is commonly used as a proxy for fitness, we also tested how this trait and its genetic variance (including nonadditive genetic variance) were impacted by environmental stress. In both traits, genetic variances were sex and condition dependent, but they differed in their variance composition, cross-sex and cross-environment genetic covariances, as well as in the environmental impact on V_A.     

SENSITIVITY OF THE DISTRIBUTION OF MUTATIONAL FITNESS EFFECTS TO ENVIRONMENT,GENETIC BACKGROUND,AND ADAPTEDNESS: A CASE STUDY WITH DROSOPHILA

Heterogeneity in the fitness effects of individual mutations has been found across different environmental and genetic contexts. Going beyond effects on individual mutations, how is the distribution of selective effects, f(s), altered by changes in genetic and environmental context? In this study, we examined changes in the major features of f(s) by estimating viability selection on 36 individual mutations in Drosophila melanogaster across two different environments in two different genetic backgrounds that were either adapted or nonadapted to the two test environments. Both environment and genetic background affected selection on individual mutations. However, the overall distribution f(s) appeared robust to changes in genetic background but both the mean, E(s), and the variance, V(s) were dependent on the environment. Between these two properties, V(s) was more sensitive to environmental change. Contrary to predictions of fitness landscape theory, the match between genetic background and assay environment (i.e., adaptedness) had little effect on f(s).     

Indirect genetic effects and the lek paradox: inter-genotypic competition may strengthen genotype × environment interactions and conserve genetic variance

Understanding the evolutionary mechanisms that maintain genetic variation in natural populations is one of the fundamental goals of evolutionary biology. There is growing evidence that genotype-by-environment interaction (G × E) can maintain additive genetic variance (V _A), but we lack information on the relative performance of genotypes under the competitive situations encountered in the field. Competing genotypes may influence each other, and this interaction is also subject to selection through indirect genetic effects (IGE). Here, we explore how genotypes perform when interacting and evaluate IGE in order to understand its influence on V _A for sexually-selected traits in the lesser waxmoth, Achroia grisella. We found that inter-genotype differences and crossover interactions under joint rearing are equal to or greater than values when reared separately. A focal genotype exhibited different performances when jointly reared with various genotypes—suggesting that IGE may be responsible for the increased levels of crossover and differences in performance observed. We suggest that some genotypes are superior competitors for food acquisition in the larval stage, and that these differences influence the development and evolution of other genotypes through IGE. We reaffirm the role of G × E in maintaining V _A and note the general importance of IGE in studies of evolutionary mechanisms.     

A POPULATION GENETIC THEORY OF CANALIZATION

Canalization is the suppression of phenotypic variation. Depending on the causes of phenotypic variation, one speaks either of genetic or environmental canalization. Genetic canalization describes insensitivity of a character to mutations, and the insensitivity to environmental factors is called environmental canalization. Genetic canalization is of interest because it influences the availability of heritable phenotypic variation to natural selection, and is thus potentially important in determining the pattern of phenotypic evolution. In this paper a number of population genetic models are considered of a quantitative character under stabilizing selection. The main purpose of this study is to define the population genetic conditions and constraints for the evolution of canalization. Environmental canalization is modeled as genotype specific environmental variance. It is shown that stabilizing selection favors genes that decrease environmental variance of quantitative characters. However, the theoretical limit of zero environmental variance has never been observed. Of the many ways to explain this fact, two are addressed by our model. It is shown that a “canalization limit” is reached if canalizing effects of mutations are correlated with direct effects on the same character. This canalization limit is predicted to be independent of the strength of stabilizing selection, which is inconsistent with recent experimental data (Sterns et al. 1995). The second model assumes that the canalizing genes have deleterious pleiotropic effects. If these deleterious effects are of the same magnitude as all the other mutations affecting fitness very strong stabilizing selection is required to allow the evolution of environmental canalization. Genetic canalization is modeled as an influence on the average effect of mutations at a locus of other genes. It is found that the selection for genetic canalization critically depends on the amount of genetic variation present in the population. The more genetic variation, the stronger the selection for canalizing effects. All factors that increase genetic variation favor the evolution of genetic canalization (large population size, high mutation rate, large number of genes). If genetic variation is maintained by mutation-selection balance, strong stabilizing selection can inhibit the evolution of genetic canalization. Strong stabilizing selection eliminates genetic variation to a level where selection for canalization does not work anymore. It is predicted that the most important characters (in terms of fitness) are not necessarily the most canalized ones, if they are under very strong stabilizing selection (k > 0.2V_e). The rate of decrease of mutational variance V_m is found to be less than 10% of the initial V_m. From this result it is concluded that characters with typical mutational variances of about 10^–3 V_e are in a metastable state where further evolution of genetic canalization is too slow to be of importance at a microevolutionary time scale. The implications for the explanation of macroevolutionary patterns are discussed.     

Effect of precipitation variability on net primary production and soil respiration in a Chihuahuan Desert grassland

Precipitation regimes are predicted to become more variable with more extreme rainfall events punctuated by longer intervening dry periods. Water‐limited ecosystems are likely to be highly responsive to altered precipitation regimes. The bucket model predicts that increased precipitation variability will reduce soil moisture stress and increase primary productivity and soil respiration in aridland ecosystems. To test this hypothesis, we experimentally altered the size and frequency of precipitation events during the summer monsoon (July through September) in 2007 and 2008 in a northern Chihuahuan Desert grassland in central New Mexico, USA. Treatments included (1) ambient rain, (2) ambient rain plus one 20 mm rain event each month, and (3) ambient rain plus four 5 mm rain events each month. Throughout two monsoon seasons, we measured soil temperature, soil moisture content (θ), soil respiration (R_s), along with leaf‐level photosynthesis (A_net), predawn leaf water potential (Ψ_pd), and seasonal aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP) of the dominant C₄ grass, Bouteloua eriopoda. Treatment plots receiving a single large rainfall event each month maintained significantly higher seasonal soil θ which corresponded with a significant increase in R_s and ANPP of B. eriopoda when compared with plots receiving multiple small events. Because the strength of these patterns differed between years, we propose a modification of the bucket model in which both the mean and variance of soil water change as a consequence of interannual variability from 1 year to the next. Our results demonstrate that aridland ecosystems are highly sensitive to increased precipitation variability, and that more extreme precipitation events will likely have a positive impact on some aridland ecosystem processes important for the carbon cycle.     

Population size is weakly related to quantitative genetic variation and trait differentiation in a stream fish

How population size influences quantitative genetic variation and differentiation among natural, fragmented populations remains unresolved. Small, isolated populations might occupy poor quality habitats and lose genetic variation more rapidly due to genetic drift than large populations. Genetic drift might furthermore overcome selection as population size decreases. Collectively, this might result in directional changes in additive genetic variation (V_A) and trait differentiation (Q_ST) from small to large population size. Alternatively, small populations might exhibit larger variation in V_A and Q_ST if habitat fragmentation increases variability in habitat types. We explored these alternatives by investigating V_A and Q_ST using nine fragmented populations of brook trout varying 50‐fold in census size N (179–8416) and 10‐fold in effective number of breeders, N_b (18–135). Across 15 traits, no evidence was found for consistent differences in V_A and Q_ST with population size and almost no evidence for increased variability of V_A or Q_ST estimates at small population size. This suggests that (i) small populations of some species may retain adaptive potential according to commonly adopted quantitative genetic measures and (ii) populations of varying sizes experience a variety of environmental conditions in nature, however extremely large studies are likely required before any firm conclusions can be made.     

Photosynthetic limitation of several representative subalpine species in the Catalan Pyrenees in summer

Information on the photosynthetic process and its limitations is essential in order to predict both the capacity of species to adapt to conditions associated with climate change and the likely changes in plant communities. Considering that high‐mountain species are especially sensitive, three species representative of subalpine forests of the Central Catalan Pyrenees: mountain pine (Pinus uncinata Mill.), birch (Betula pendula Roth) and rhododendron (Rhododendron ferrugineum L.) were studied under conditions associated with climate change, such as low precipitation, elevated atmospheric [CO₂] and high solar irradiation incident at Earth's surface, in order to detect any photosynthetic limitations. Short‐term high [CO₂] increased photosynthesis rates (A) and water use efficiency (WUE), especially in birch and mountain pine, whereas stomatal conductance (g_s) was not altered in either species. Birch showed photosynthesis limitation through stomatal closure related to low rainfall, which induced photoinhibition and early foliar senescence. Rhododendron was especially affected by high irradiance, showing early photosynthetic saturation in low light, highest chlorophyll content, lowest gas exchange rates and least photoprotection. Mountain pine had the highest A, photosynthetic capacity (A_max) and light‐saturated rates of net CO₂ assimilation (A_sat), which were maintained under reduced precipitation. Furthermore, maximum quantum yield (F_v/F_m), thermal energy dissipation, PRI and SIPI radiometric index, and ascorbate content indicated improved photoprotection with respect to the other two species. However, maximum velocity of carboxylation of RuBisco (V_cmax) indicated that N availability would be the main photosynthetic limitation in this species.     

Quantitative genetic analysis of responses to larval food limitation in a polyphenic butterfly indicates environment‐ and trait‐specific effects

Different components of heritability, including genetic variance (V_G), are influenced by environmental conditions. Here, we assessed phenotypic responses of life‐history traits to two different developmental conditions, temperature and food limitation. The former represents an environment that defines seasonal polyphenism in our study organism, the tropical butterfly Bicyclus anynana, whereas the latter represents a more unpredictable environment. We quantified heritabilities using restricted maximum likelihood (REML) procedures within an “Information Theoretical” framework in a full‐sib design. Whereas development time, pupal mass, and resting metabolic rate showed no genotype‐by‐environment interaction for genetic variation, for thorax ratio and fat percentage the heritability increased under the cool temperature, dry season environment. Additionally, for fat percentage heritability estimates increased under food limitation. Hence, the traits most intimately related to polyphenism in B. anynana show the most environmental‐specific heritabilities as well as some indication of cross‐environmental genetic correlations. This may reflect a footprint of natural selection and our future research is aimed to uncover the genes and processes involved in this through studying season and condition‐dependent gene expression.     

Inconsistencies in standard approximations for selection coefficients at loci affecting a polygenic character

Inconsistencies exist in the standard expansions used to approximate selection coefficients for alleles at a locus underlying a quantitative character. Allelic (marginal) fitnesses obtained from expansions based on average excesses differ from allelic fitnesses obtained from expansions based on genotypic values. Similarly, the mean population fitness based on summing over either allelic or genotypic fitnesses usually differs mean population fitness obtained by averaging over the unrestricted phenotypic distribution. A consistent value of requires no variation in genotypic values. If, as suggested by Nagylaki (1984), expansions are corrected for the decrease in phenotypic variance resulting from conditioning on the presence of a particular allele or genotype, inconsistencies still exist. Unless W(z)[V _z p(z) + zp(z) + p(z)] dz = 0, where p(z) is the phenotypic probability density function, V _z the phenotypic variance, W( _z ) the fitness of phenotypic value z, the primes denote differentiation with respect to z, allelic fitnesses based on average effects differ from allelic fitnesses based on genotypic values. This condition must also be satisfied in order for either expansion to give a consistent , as first shown by Nagylaki. For arbitrary W(z), this is satisfied if and only if phenotypes are normally distributed.     

Reaction norms and the genetic basis of phenotypic plasticity in the wing pattern of the butterfly Bicyclus anynana

The genetic basis of the dry-wet season polyphenism of wing pattern in response to temperature shown by Bicyclus anynana was studied, using a split-family design over four temperatures. Reaction norms crossed, but were only linear in the three highest temperatures, and only when larval development time was used as the environmental axis. Significant full-sib additive variances (V_A) and heritabilities (h²) for plasticity were found using slopes of reaction norms in a bootstrap procedure. Heritabilities were lower in intermediate temperatures, mainly due to differences in the residual variances (V_R). There was no clear trend in V_A across temperatures, contrary to the expectation that V_A would have been depleted by natural selection at the extreme temperatures and not depleted at the intermediate temperatures which occur less frequently in the field. Unpredictability in the onset of the following season at intermediate temperatures might lead to selection for diverse flresponses resulting in relatively high V_Rs. Theoretical models linking reaction norms to genetic parameters in separate environments were difficult to apply in this study, particularly because they are based on the assumption that V_Rs are constant. However the reaction norm approach combined with quantitative genetics provided a valuable insight into the evolution of the observed polyphenism.     

Demographic factors and genetic variation influence population persistence under environmental change

Population persistence has been studied in a conservation context to predict the fate of small or declining populations. Persistence models have explored effects on extinction of random demographic and environmental fluctuations, but in the face of directional environmental change they should also integrate factors affecting whether a population can adapt. Here, we examine the population‐size dependence of demographic and genetic factors and their likely contributions to extinction time under scenarios of environmental change. Parameter estimates were derived from experimental populations of the rainforest species, Drosophila birchii, held in the lab for 10 generations at census sizes of 20, 100 and 1000, and later exposed to five generations of heat‐knockdown selection. Under a model of directional change in the thermal environment, rapid extinction of populations of size 20 was caused by a combination of low growth rate (r) and high stochasticity in r. Populations of 100 had significantly higher reproductive output, lower stochasticity in r and more additive genetic variance (V_A) than populations of 20, but they were predicted to persist less well than the largest size class. Even populations of 1000 persisted only a few hundred generations under realistic estimates of environmental change because of low V_A for heat‐knockdown resistance. The experimental results document population‐size dependence of demographic and adaptability factors. The simulations illustrate a threshold influence of demographic factors on population persistence, while genetic variance has a more elastic impact on persistence under environmental change.     

Heritability and evolvability of fitness and nonfitness traits: Lessons from livestock

Data from natural populations have suggested a disconnection between trait heritability (variance standardized additive genetic variance, V_A) and evolvability (mean standardized V_A) and emphasized the importance of environmental variation as a determinant of trait heritability but not evolvability. However, these inferences are based on heterogeneous and often small datasets across species from different environments. We surveyed the relationship between evolvability and heritability in >100 traits in farmed cattle, taking advantage of large sample sizes and consistent genetic approaches. Heritability and evolvability estimates were positively correlated (r = 0.37/0.54 on untransformed/log scales) reflecting a substantial impact of V_A on both measures. Furthermore, heritabilities and residual variances were uncorrelated. The differences between this and previously described patterns may reflect lower environmental variation experienced in farmed systems, but also low and heterogeneous quality of data from natural populations. Similar to studies on wild populations, heritabilities for life‐history and behavioral traits were lower than for other traits. Traits having extremely low heritabilities and evolvabilities (17% of the studied traits) were almost exclusively life‐history or behavioral traits, suggesting that evolutionary constraints stemming from lack of genetic variability are likely to be most common for classical “fitness” (cf. life‐history) rather than for “nonfitness” (cf. morphological) traits.     

Genotype x environment interaction for male attractiveness in an acoustic moth: evidence for plasticity and canalization

The lek paradox arises when choosy females deplete the genetic variance for male display traits from a population, yet substantial additive genetic variation (V_A) in male traits persists. Thus, the lek paradox can be more generally stated as one of the most fundamental evolutionary questions: What maintains genetic variation in natural populations? One solution to this problem may be found in the condition‐dependent nature of many sexually selected traits. Genotype × environment (G × E) interactions can maintain V_A under conditions of environmental heterogeneity provided certain restrictions are met, although antagonistic pleiotropy has also been proposed as a mechanism. Here, we provide evidence for G × E interactions and against the role of antagonistic pleiotropy in the maintenance of V_A for sexually selected traits. Using inbred lines of the lesser waxmoth Achroia grisella, we measured V_A for song attractiveness, condition and development rate under different competitive environments and found that genotypes differed in their plasticity. We argue that variation persists in natural populations because G × E interactions prevent any one variant from producing the optimal phenotype across all environments.     

Predicting evolutionary responses to selection on polyandry in the wild: additive genetic covariances with female extra-pair reproduction

The evolutionary forces that underlie polyandry, including extra-pair reproduction (EPR) by socially monogamous females, remain unclear. Selection on EPR and resulting evolution have rarely been explicitly estimated or predicted in wild populations, and evolutionary predictions are vulnerable to bias due to environmental covariances and correlated selection through unmeasured traits. However, evolutionary responses to (correlated) selection on any trait can be directly predicted as additive genetic covariances (cov_A) with appropriate components of relative fitness. I used comprehensive life-history, paternity and pedigree data from song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) to estimate cov_A between a female''s liability to produce extra-pair offspring and two specific fitness components: relative annual reproductive success (ARS) and survival to recruitment. All three traits showed non-zero additive genetic variance. Estimates of cov_A were positive, predicting evolution towards increased EPR, but 95% credible intervals overlapped zero. There was therefore no conclusive prediction of evolutionary change in EPR due to (correlated) selection through female ARS or recruitment. Negative environmental covariance between EPR and ARS would have impeded evolutionary prediction from phenotypic selection differentials. These analyses demonstrate an explicit quantitative genetic approach to predicting evolutionary responses to components of (correlated) selection on EPR that should be unbiased by environmental covariances and unmeasured traits.     

Additive genetic variance within populations derived by single-seed descent and pod-bulk descent

Summary Breeders of self-pollinated legumes commonly use single-seed descent (SSD) or pod-bulk descent (PBD) to produce segregating populations of highly inbred individuals. We presented equations for the expected value of the additive genetic variance within populations derived by SSD (E(V _A)_SSD) and PBD (E(V _A)_PBD) in terms of the initial population size (N ₀), the number of seed harvested per pod (M), the probability of survival of an individual (), and the generation at which the population is evaluated (S _t). Differences between (E(V _A)_SSD) and (E(V _A)_PBD) are due to differences in the expected amount of random drift which occurs with the two methods after the S ₀ generation. With both methods, random drift occurs when progeny are sampled from heterozygous parents. An additional component of random drift occurs when sampled progeny fail to survive during SSD, or when sampling occurs amoung families during PBD. For values of N ₀, M, , and S _t that are typical of soybean (Glycine max (L.) Merr.) breeding programs, (E(V _A)_SSD) will be greater than (E(V _A)_PBD). The ratio of (E(V _A)_SSD) to (E(V _A)_PBD) will: (1) increase as M and increase; (2) approach a value of 1.00 as N ₀ increases; and (3) be a curvilinear function of S _t. Plant breeders should compare SSD and PBD based upon values of (E(V _A)_SSD) and (E(V _A)_PBD) and the expected cost of carrying out the two methods.Contribution No. 2910 of the South Carolina Agricultural Experiment Station, Clemson University