Do asynchronies in extinction debt affect the structure of trophic networks? A case study of antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant networks

Habitat loss and fragmentation affect species richness in fragmented habitats and can lead to immediate or time‐delayed species extinctions. Asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt between interacting species may have severe effects on ecological networks. However, these effects remain largely unknown. We evaluated the effects of habitat patch and landscape changes on antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant trophic networks in Mediterranean grasslands in which previous studies had shown the existence of extinction debt in plants but not in butterflies. We sampled current species richness of habitat‐specialist and generalist butterflies and vascular plants in 26 grasslands. We assessed the direct effects of historical and current patch and landscape characteristics on species richness and on butterfly larvae–plant trophic network metrics and robustness. Although positive species‐ and interactions–area relationships were found in all networks, structure and robustness was only affected by patch and landscape changes in networks involving the subset of butterfly specialists. Larger patches had more species (butterflies and host plants) and interactions but also more compartments, which decreased network connectance but increased network stability. Moreover, most likely due to the rescue effect, patch connectivity increased host‐plant species (but not butterfly) richness and total links, and network robustness in specialist networks. On the other hand, patch area loss decreased robustness in specialist butterfly larvae–plant networks and made them more prone to collapse against host plant extinctions. Finally, in all butterfly larvae–plant networks we also detected a past patch and landscape effect on network asymmetry, which indicates that there were different extinction rates and extinction debts for butterflies and host plants. We conclude that asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt in butterfly–plant networks provoked by patch and landscape changes caused changes in species richness and network links in all networks, as well as changes in network structure and robustness in specialist networks.     

Potential extinction debt due to habitat loss and fragmentation in subalpine moorland ecosystems

Habitat loss and fragmentation would often induce delayed extinction, referred to as extinction debt. Understanding potential extinction debts would allow us to reduce future extinction risk by restoring habitats or implementing conservation actions. Although growing empirical evidence has predicted extinction debts in various ecosystems exposed to direct human disturbances, potential extinction debts in natural ecosystems with minimal direct human disturbance are little studied. Ongoing climate change may cause habitat loss and fragmentation, particularly in natural ecosystems vulnerable to environmental change, potentially leading to future local extinctions. Recent climate change would lead to extended growing season caused by earlier snowmelt in spring, resulting in expansion of shrubby species and thereby habitat loss and fragmentation of mountainous moorlands. We examined the potential extinction debts of species diversity and functional diversity (FD; trait variation or multivariate trait differences within a community) in subalpine moorland ecosystems subjected to few direct human disturbances. Plant species richness for all species and for moorland specialists were primarily explained by the past kernel density of focal moorlands (a proxy for spatial clustering of moorlands around them) but not the past area of the focal moorlands, suggesting potential extinction debt in subalpine moorland ecosystems. The higher kernel density of the focal moorland in the past indicates that it was originally surrounded by more neighborhood moorlands and/or had been locally highly fragmented. Patterns in current plant species richness have been shaped by the historical spatial configuration of moorlands, which have disappeared over time. In contrast, we found no significant relationships between the FD and historical and current landscape variables depicting each moorland. The prevalence of trait convergence might result in a less sensitive response of FD to habitat loss and fragmentation compared to that of species richness. Our finding has an important implication that climate change induced by human activities may threaten biodiversity in natural ecosystems through habitat loss and fragmentation.

     

Evidence for a possible extinction debt in Swiss wetland specialist plants

1. Habitat loss leading to smaller patch sizes and decreasing connectivity is a major threat to global biodiversity. While some species vanish immediately after a change in habitat conditions, others show delayed extinction, that is, an extinction debt. In case of an extinction debt, the current species richness is higher than expected under present habitat conditions.
2. We investigated wetlands of the canton of Zürich in the lowlands of Eastern Switzerland where a wetland loss of 90% over the last 150 years occurred. We related current species richness to current and past patch area and connectivity (in 1850, 1900, 1950, and 2000). We compared current with predicted species richness in wetlands with a substantial loss in patch area based on the species‐area relationship of wetlands without substantial loss in patch area and studied relationships between the richness of different species groups and current and historical area and connectivity of wetland patches.
3. We found evidence of a possible extinction debt for long‐lived wetland specialist vascular plants: in wetlands, which substantially lost patch area, current species richness of long‐lived specialist vascular plants was higher than would have been expected based on current patch area. Additionally and besides current wetland area, historical area also explained current species richness of these species in a substantial and significant way. No evidence for an extinction debt in bryophytes was found.
4. The possible unpaid extinction debt in the wetlands of the canton of Zürich is an appeal to nature conservation, which has the possibility to prevent likely future extinctions of species through specific conservation measures. In particular, a further reduction in wetlands must be prevented and restoration measures must be taken to increase the number of wetlands.

     

Understanding extinction debts: spatio–temporal scales,mechanisms and a roadmap for future research

Extinction debt refers to delayed species extinctions expected as a consequence of ecosystem perturbation. Quantifying such extinctions and investigating long‐term consequences of perturbations has proven challenging, because perturbations are not isolated and occur across various spatial and temporal scales, from local habitat losses to global warming. Additionally, the relative importance of eco‐evolutionary processes varies across scales, because levels of ecological organization, i.e. individuals, (meta)populations and (meta)communities, respond hierarchically to perturbations. To summarize our current knowledge of the scales and mechanisms influencing extinction debts, we reviewed recent empirical, theoretical and methodological studies addressing either the spatio–temporal scales of extinction debts or the eco‐evolutionary mechanisms delaying extinctions. Extinction debts were detected across a range of ecosystems and taxonomic groups, with estimates ranging from 9 to 90% of current species richness. The duration over which debts have been sustained varies from 5 to 570 yr, and projections of the total period required to settle a debt can extend to 1000 yr. Reported causes of delayed extinctions are 1) life‐history traits that prolong individual survival, and 2) population and metapopulation dynamics that maintain populations under deteriorated conditions. Other potential factors that may extend survival time such as microevolutionary dynamics, or delayed extinctions of interaction partners, have rarely been analyzed. Therefore, we propose a roadmap for future research with three key avenues: 1) the microevolutionary dynamics of extinction processes, 2) the disjunctive loss of interacting species and 3) the impact of multiple regimes of perturbation on the payment of debts. For their ability to integrate processes occurring at different levels of ecological organization, we highlight mechanistic simulation models as tools to address these knowledge gaps and to deepen our understanding of extinction dynamics.     

Importance of local habitat conditions and past and present habitat connectivity for the species richness of grassland plants and butterflies in power line clearings

Agricultural intensification has caused drastic declines in the area and species richness of semi-natural grasslands across Europe. Novel habitats, such as power line clearings, provide alternative habitats and niches for grassland species, and might therefore mitigate these declines. However, it is not fully understood which environmental factors determine the occurrence of grassland species in the clearings. Identifying the most important drivers for grassland species occurrence would help understand the value of the clearings for grassland conservation and target enhanced management into clearings with most potential as grassland habitat. We studied the effects of local environmental conditions, and past and present connectivity to semi-natural grasslands, on the species richness of grassland plants and butterflies in 43 power line clearings in Finland. The results of generalized linear models and hierarchical partitioning showed that increasing time since clear-cut and amount of clearing residue decreased the species richness of both species groups, while the cover of mesic habitats increased it. However, the two species groups showed also divergent responses. Present-day local environmental conditions appeared to be the sole driver of grassland butterfly species richness, whereas the richness of grassland plants was related both to current conditions and historical connectivity to grasslands in 1870–1880s. This suggests the presence of an extinction debt in the studied grassland plant communities, emphasizing the need for enhanced management to increase suitable grassland habitat in the clearings. This would diminish the potential future losses of grassland plant species in the clearings and create valuable habitat for grassland butterflies as well.     

The response of bird feeding guilds to forest fragmentation reveals conservation strategies for a critically endangered African eco‐region

South African coastal forests form part of two critically endangered eco‐regions and harbor an extinction debt. Remaining fragments are small, isolated, and embedded within a range of human land‐use types. In this study, we ask: how should we invest conservation resources if we want to restore this landscape and prevent predicted extinctions? To answer this question, we use path analyses to determine the direct and indirect effects of forest area, forest connectivity, and matrix land‐use types on species richness within five bird feeding guilds. We found that forest connectivity had a significant direct effect on insectivores—fragments that were more connected had more species of insectivores than those that were isolated. Moreover, forest area had a significant indirect effect on insectivores that was mediated through tree species richness. Larger fragments had more species of trees, which led to more species of insectivores. Fragment area, connectivity, matrix land‐use type, and tree species richness had no significant effects on the species richness of frugivores, nectarivores, granivores, or generalist feeders. To conserve insectivores in coastal forests, conservation efforts should focus on maximizing fragment connectivity across the landscape, but also protect the tree community within fragments from degradation. This can be achieved by including matrix habitats that adjoin forest fragments within forest conservation and restoration plans. Natural matrix habitats can increase connectivity, provide supplementary resources, buffer fragments from degradation, and could play an important role in safeguarding diversity and preventing extinctions in this threatened human‐modified landscape.     

Vegetation in clear‐cuts depends on previous land use: a century‐old grassland legacy

Plant species richness in central and northern European seminatural grasslands is often more closely linked to past than present habitat configuration, which is indicative of an extinction debt. In this study, we investigate whether signs of historical grassland management can be found in clear‐cuts after at least 80 years as coniferous production forest by comparing floras between clear‐cuts with a history as meadow and as forest in the 1870s in Sweden. Study sites were selected using old land‐use maps and data on present‐day clear‐cuts. Species traits reflecting high capacities for dispersal and persistence were used to explain any possible links between the plants and the historical land use. Clear‐cuts that were formerly meadow had, on average, 36% higher species richness and 35% higher richness of grassland indicator species, as well as a larger overall seed mass and lower anemochory, compared to clear‐cuts with history as forest. We suggest that the plants in former meadows never disappeared after afforestation but survived as remnant populations. Many contemporary forests in Sweden were managed as grasslands in the 1800s. As conservation of remaining grassland fragments will not be enough to reduce the existing extinction debts of the flora, these young forests offer opportunities for grassland restoration at large scales. Our study supports the concept of remnant populations and highlights the importance of considering historical land use for understanding the distribution of grassland plant species in fragmented landscapes, as well as for policy‐making and conservation.     

Extinction debt and the role of static and dynamical fragmentation on biodiversity

The mass-extinction events caused by human-driven habitat loss are a current concern in conservation science. However, the observed number of extinctions is considerably smaller than predicted. The overestimation of extinction rates comes from the time-delay which depends on the species sensitivity to habitat changes. The standard method of predicting the effect of habitat loss on biodiversity is to use the species–area relationship and progressively following it backwards to smaller areas. The difference between the actual number of species and the one provided by the backwards species–area relationship is dubbed extinction debt. Previous studies in general adopt a static view for the spatial distribution of species. Nonetheless, a precise understanding of the problem urges us to adopt a dynamic framework to this issue since the time between disturbances of the landscape plays an active role in influencing the strength of the extinction debt. In this context, here we address two distinct approaches for this question: a static and a dynamic view of fragmentation. In the former we quantify the extinction debt in a quenched spatial distribution of species, whereas in the latter the community is let to evolve between disturbance events of the landscape. Here we show that the size of the extinction debt depends on the pattern of the fragmentation. It is found that random distributions of destroyed habitats provide larger extinction debts than those obtained for contiguous areas of fragmentation. Furthermore, in the dynamic approach it is observed that dispersal can lead to unexpected outcomes such as lower biodiversity levels than ones inferred from the backwards species–area relationship.     

Which plant traits predict species loss in calcareous grasslands with extinction debt?

Aim Habitat loss and degradation pose a major threat to biodiversity, which can result in the extinction of habitat characteristic species. However, many species exhibit a delayed response to environmental changes because of the slow intrinsic dynamics of populations, resulting in extinction debt. We assess directly the changes in habitat characteristic species composition by comparing historical (1923) and current inventories in highly fragmented grasslands. We aim to characterize the species that constitute extinction debt in European calcareous grasslands. Location Europe, Estonia, 59–60° N, 24–25° E. Methods We related eleven life‐history traits and selected habitat preferences to local extinctions of populations in grasslands where extinction debt has been largely paid. Traits were chosen to describe species dispersal and persistence abilities and were quantified from databases. Results The studied grasslands have lost 90% of their area and 30% of their characteristic plant populations in 90 years. Species more prone to local population extinction were characterized by shorter life span, self‐pollination, a lack of clonal growth, fewer seeds per shoot, lower average height, lower soil nitrogen preference and higher requirements for light, indicating a limited ability to tolerate the range of changes in biotic and abiotic conditions of the sites. Locally extinct populations were also characterized by wind‐dispersed seeds, lower seed weight and lower terminal velocity of seeds, suggesting that species strategies for long‐distance dispersal are not favoured in highly fragmented landscapes. Thus, both increased habitat isolation and decreased habitat quality are important in determining local population extinction. Main conclusions Populations more prone to local extinction were characterized by a number of life‐history traits, demonstrating a greater extinction risk for species with poorer abilities for local persistence and competition. Our results can be applied to less degraded grasslands where the extinction debt is not yet paid to determine those species most susceptible to future extinction.     

Extinction debt in fragmented grasslands: paid or not?

Fragmentation of grasslands and forests is considered a major threat to biodiversity. In the case of plants, the effect of fragmentation or landscape context is still unclear and published results are divergent. One explanation for this divergence is the slow response of long‐lived plants, creating an extinction debt. However, this has not been empirically confirmed. In this study, data were compiled from broad‐scale studies of grasslands from throughout the world that relate plant diversity to fragmentation effects. Only seven studies from northern Europe, out of a total 61, gave any information on actual habitat fragmentation in time and space. In landscapes with >10% grassland remaining, present‐day species richness was related to past landscape or habitat pattern. In landscapes with <10% grassland remaining, in contrast, plant species richness was more related to contemporary landscape or habitat pattern. Studies from landscapes with >10% grassland remaining supported the concept of an extinction debt, while studies from more fragmented landscapes did not provide any evidence of an extinction debt. In order to make generalisations about historical legacies on species diversity in grasslands it is important to consider a range of highly transformed landscapes, and not only landscapes with a high amount of grassland remaining.     

Landscape structure and land use history influence changes in island plant composition after 100 years

Aim We investigated how current and historical land use and landscape structure affect species richness and the processes of extinction, immigration and species turnover. Location The northern part of the Stockholm archipelago, Baltic Sea, Sweden. We resurveyed 27 islands ranging from 0.3 to 33 ha in area. Methods We compared current plant survey data, cadastral maps and aerial photographs with records obtained from a survey in 1908, using databases and a digital elevation model to examine changes in plant community dynamics in space and time. We examined the effects of local and landscape structure and land use changes on plant species dynamics by using stepwise regression in relation to eight local and three landscape variables. The eight local variables were area, relative age, shape, soil heterogeneity, bedrock ratio, number of houses, forest cover change, and grazing 100 years ago. The three landscape variables were distance to mainland, distance to closest island with a farm 100 years ago, and structural connectivity. Hanski’s connectivity measure was modified to incorporate both connectivity and fragmentation. Results The investigated islands have undergone drastic changes, with increasing forest cover, habitation, and abandonment of grassland management. Although the total species richness increased by 31% and mean island area by 23%, we found no significant increase in species richness per unit area. Local variables explain past species richness (100 years ago), whereas both local and landscape variables explain current species richness, extinctions, immigrations and species turnover. Grazing that occurred 100 years ago still influences species richness, even though grazing management was abandoned several decades ago. The evidence clearly shows an increase in nitrophilous plant species, particularly among immigrant species. Main conclusions This study highlights the importance of including land use history when interpreting current patterns of species richness. Furthermore, local environment and landscape patterns affect important ecological processes such as immigration, extinction and species turnover, and hence should be included when assessing the impact of habitat fragmentation and land use change. We suggest that our modified structural connectivity measure can be applied to other types of landscapes to investigate the effects of fragmentation and habitat loss.     

Hybrid ecosystems can contribute to local biodiversity conservation

Calcareous grasslands have become severely threatened habitats in Europe. The aim of this study was to investigate the changes in plant species richness, and functional and phylogenetic diversity in northern Estonian calcareous (alvar) grasslands resampled after 90 years of land-use change. Functional traits characterizing species that have benefited most from decreased habitat area and altered environmental conditions, and additional species that can potentially inhabit the remaining grassland patches were identified. Also changes in the relative amount of habitat-specific species were studied to detect a possible decrease in habitat integrity. Although grasslands in the studied region had lost most of their original area (~90 %), species richness had substantially increased due to invasion by more competitive, nutrient-demanding native species. Functional diversity generally increased, whereas phylogenetic diversity showed no response to altered conditions. Overall, these grasslands have lost their integrity as calcareous grassland habitat type in the region, because the relative amount of habitat-specific characteristic species has declined significantly. However, although the grasslands have transformed to a ‘hybrid’ habitat type and restoration to their previous state is likely not reasonable, such degraded species-rich grassland fragments can still be recognized as important habitats to preserve high local biodiversity and several characteristic species of calcareous grasslands. As current landscapes consist of an increasing number of hybrid and novel communities, new tools to supplement traditional conservation or restoration practices are necessary to recognize and maintain regions and habitats of high local biodiversity.     

Nestedness-resultant community disassembly process of extinction debt in a highly fragmented semi-natural grassland

There are two major processes of species disassembly after landscape changes: non-random loss of species resulting in nested assemblages and species replacement resulting in spatial species turnover. Although time-lagged responses of species to landscape change have been widely recognized, few studies have empirically evaluated which of these two processes is more closely related to extinction debt (i.e., postponed species extinction following habitat loss). This study aimed to understand the underlying processes of extinction debt by partitioning β-diversity into components of species nestedness and species turnover. We measured grassland species richness at three spatial extents in a highly fragmented semi-natural grassland landscape in Japan. Dissimilarity-based β-diversity was partitioned into two components (i.e., nestedness-resultant dissimilarity [β_sne] and turnover-resultant dissimilarity [β_sim]), which were further analyzed using principal coordinates analyses (PCoA). The relationships between the variability of PCoA axis 1 scores and the current and past habitat proportions were evaluated. A significant positive relationship between current grassland species richness and past (i.e., the 1910s) grassland proportion was found at the largest spatial extent. The first axis of PCoA based on β_sne showed significant correlation with past habitat proportions, whereas the PCoA axis based on β_sim showed no significant correlation with either the current or past habitat proportions. A non-random loss of grassland species represented by nestedness underlay the extinction debt found at the landscape level. There is a chance of predicting the loss of species from the nested ranks of species which likely reflects the gradient of species vulnerability to historical landscape changes.     

Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Tracking the effects of one century of habitat loss and fragmentation on calcareous grassland butterfly communities

Habitat loss and fragmentation are known to reduce patch sizes and increase their isolation, consequently leading to modifications in species richness and community structure. Calcareous grasslands are among the richest ecosystems in Europe for insect species. About 10% (1,150 ha) of the total area of a calcareous ridge region (Calestienne, Belgium) and its butterfly community was analysed over a timeframe of about 100 years. Since 1905 to present day (2005), the Calestienne region has undergone both calcareous grassland loss and fragmentation: not only did calcareous grassland size decrease and isolation increase, but also, the number of calcareous grassland patches within the landscape increased until 1965, and subsequently decreased, clearly reflecting the effects of fragmentation. These processes have had a profound effect on the butterfly community: extinction and rarefaction affected significantly more often specialist species, which means that generalist species are more and more overrepresented. This ecological drift, i.e. the replacement of specialists by generalists in species assemblages is likely to be a general effect of habitat loss and fragmentation on natural communities.     

Extinction and time help drive the marine‐terrestrial biodiversity gradient: is the ocean a deathtrap?

The marine‐terrestrial richness gradient is among Earth's most dramatic biodiversity patterns, but its causes remain poorly understood. Here, we analyse detailed phylogenies of amniote clades, paleontological data and simulations to reveal the mechanisms underlying low marine richness, emphasising speciation, extinction and colonisation. We show that differences in diversification rates (speciation minus extinction) between habitats are often weak and inconsistent with observed richness patterns. Instead, the richness gradient is explained by limited time for speciation in marine habitats, since all extant marine clades are relatively young. Paleontological data show that older marine invasions have consistently ended in extinction. Simulations show that marine extinctions help drive the pattern of young, depauperate marine clades. This role for extinction is not discernible from molecular phylogenies alone, and not predicted by most previously hypothesised explanations for this gradient. Our results have important implications for the marine‐terrestrial biodiversity gradient, and studies of biodiversity gradients in general.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

Slow response of plant species richness to habitat loss and fragmentation

We examined the response of vascular plant species richness to long-term habitat loss and fragmentation of Estonian calcareous grasslands (alvars). The current number of habitat specialist species in 35 alvars was not explained by their current areas and connectivities but it was explained by their areas and connectivities 70 years ago ( R ² = 0.27). We estimated the magnitude of extinction debt in local communities by assuming an equilibrium species richness in 14 alvars that had lost only a small amount of area and by applying this model to the remaining alvars, in which the average area has declined from 3.64 km² in the 1930s to 0.21 km² at present. The extinction debt estimated for individual alvars was around 40% of their current species number. Our conclusions are applicable to temperate grasslands in general, which have lost much area because of agricultural intensification and cessation of traditional management.     

Nitrogen deposition causes widespread loss of species richness in British habitats

We use national scale data to test the hypothesis that nitrogen (N) deposition is strongly negatively correlated with plant species richness in a wide range of ecosystem types. Vegetation plots from a national ecological surveillance programme were drawn from heathland, acid, calcareous and mesotrophic grassland habitats. Mean species number and mean plant traits were calculated for each plot and related to atmospheric N deposition. There was a significant reduction in species richness with N deposition in acid grassland and heathland even after fitting covarying factors. In acid grassland and heathland, evidence from trait changes suggested that acidification rather than increased fertility was responsible for species loss. In contrast, calcareous grassland showed evidence of eutrophication in response to increasing N deposition. Loss of species richness from chronic N deposition is apparent in infertile grasslands and heathland. Mechanisms associated with loss of species richness differ between habitats so mitigation of N deposition should be targeted to habitat type.     

Disturbance,microclimate and historical habitat connectivity determine the population performance of the threatened grassland specialist Carex caryophyllea in remnant grasslands

Many grassland specialist plant populations in Europe have become restricted to remnant habitats. The performance of these populations depends on both species‐specific traits and local and landscape level aspects of habitat quality. Understanding which specific local or landscape level conditions determine the performance of grassland species populations in remnant habitats would help design the restoration of the habitats and to detect the conditions that favour the long‐term persistence of grassland species in them. Such information is especially needed in urbanised landscapes, where remnant habitats engulfed by urban land use types may experience increased erosion, higher temperatures and invasion by alien species. This study investigates the population performance determinants of Carex caryophyllea (VU), a grassland specialist, in 43 remnant grasslands in an urban‐rural gradient in Finland. The population performance was assessed with metrics of persistence, establishment and reproduction, and related to environmental conditions with generalized additive models and redundancy analysis. The most important positive determinants for the performance of C. caryophyllea populations were disturbance through management or ground erosion, a warm microclimate, large habitat area and high historical connectivity to suitable grassland habitats. Present connectivity to other C. caryophyllea populations had a weak and near‐significant positive relationship with population performance. Urbanisation of the surrounding landscape correlated with population performance as well, possibly due to the high historical cover of grasslands in presently urbanised landscapes. The results imply that the most effective restoration method of remnant C. caryophyllea populations would be reinstating disturbance regimes in overgrown habitats with warm microclimates close to suitable habitats and other existing populations, whether urban or rural. This would counteract the species future decline due to possible extinction debts and help the species persist in the study area in the long term.