Detecting local diversity‐dependence in diversification

Whether there are ecological limits to species diversification is a hotly debated topic. Molecular phylogenies show slowdowns in lineage accumulation, suggesting that speciation rates decline with increasing diversity. A maximum‐likelihood (ML) method to detect diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification from phylogenetic branching times exists, but it assumes that diversity‐dependence is a global phenomenon and therefore ignores that the underlying species interactions are mostly local, and not all species in the phylogeny co‐occur locally. Here, we explore whether this ML method based on the nonspatial diversity‐dependence model can detect local diversity‐dependence, by applying it to phylogenies, simulated with a spatial stochastic model of local DD speciation, extinction, and dispersal between two local communities. We find that type I errors (falsely detecting diversity‐dependence) are low, and the power to detect diversity‐dependence is high when dispersal rates are not too low. Interestingly, when dispersal is high the power to detect diversity‐dependence is even higher than in the nonspatial model. Moreover, estimates of intrinsic speciation rate, extinction rate, and ecological limit strongly depend on dispersal rate. We conclude that the nonspatial DD approach can be used to detect diversity‐dependence in clades of species that live in not too disconnected areas, but parameter estimates must be interpreted cautiously.     

Investigating the timing of origin and evolutionary processes shaping regional species diversity: Insights from simulated data and neotropical butterfly diversification rates

Different diversification scenarios have been proposed to explain the origin of extant biodiversity. However, most existing meta‐analyses of time‐calibrated phylogenies rely on approaches that do not quantitatively test alternative diversification processes. Here, I highlight the shortcomings of using species divergence ranks, which is a method widely used in meta‐analyses. Divergence ranks consist of categorizing cladogenetic events to certain periods of time, typically to either Pleistocene or to pre‐Pleistocene ages. This approach has been claimed to shed light on the origin of most extant species and the timing and dynamics of diversification in any biogeographical region. However, interpretations drawn from such method often confound two fundamental questions in macroevolutionary studies, tempo (timing of evolutionary rate shifts) and mode (“how” and “why” of speciation). By using simulated phylogenies under four diversification scenarios, constant‐rate, diversity‐dependence, high extinction, and high speciation rates in the Pleistocene, I showed that interpretations based on species divergence ranks might have been seriously misleading. Future meta‐analyses of dated phylogenies need to be aware of the impacts of incomplete taxonomic sampling, tree topology, and divergence time uncertainties, as well as they might be benefited by including quantitative tests of alternative diversification models that acknowledge extinction and diversity dependence.     

Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Diversification rates vary over time, yet the factors driving these variations remain unclear. Temporal declines in speciation rates have often been interpreted as the effect of ecological limits, competition, and diversity dependence, emphasising the role of biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as climate change, are also supposed to have affected diversification rates over geological time scales, yet direct tests of these presumed effects have mainly been limited to few clades well represented in the fossil record. If warmer climatic periods have sustained faster speciation, this could explain slowdowns in speciation during the Cenozoic climate cooling. Here, we apply state‐of‐the art diversity‐dependent and temperature‐dependent phylogenetic models of diversification to 218 tetrapod families, along with constant rate and time‐dependent models. We confirm the prevalence of diversification slowdowns, and find as much support for temperature‐dependent than diversity‐dependent models. These results call for a better integration of these two processes in studies of diversification dynamics.     

How traits shape trees: new approaches for detecting character state‐dependent lineage diversification

Biologists have long sought to understand the processes underlying disparities in clade size across the tree of life and the extent to which such clade size differences can be attributed to the evolution of particular traits. The association of certain character states with species‐rich clades suggests that trait evolution can lead to increased diversification, but such a pattern could also arise due other processes, such as directional trait evolution. Recent advances in phylogenetic comparative methods have provided new statistical approaches for distinguishing between these intertwined and potentially confounded macroevolutionary processes. Here, we review the historical development of methods for detecting state‐dependent diversification and explore what new methods have revealed about classic examples of traits that affect diversification, including evolutionary dead ends, key innovations and geographic traits. Applications of these methods thus far collectively suggest that trait diversity commonly arises through the complex interplay between transition, speciation and extinction rates and that long hypothesized evolutionary dead ends and key innovations are instead often cases of directional trends in trait evolution.     

High speciation rate at temperate latitudes explains unusual diversity gradients in a clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Understanding the patterns of biodiversity through time and space is a challenging task. However, phylogeny‐based macroevolutionary models allow us to account and measure many of the processes responsible for diversity buildup, namely speciation and extinction. The general latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a well‐recognized pattern describing a decline in species richness from the equator polewards. Recent macroecological studies in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi have shown that their LDG is shifted, peaking at temperate rather than tropical latitudes. Here we investigate this phenomenon from a macroevolutionary perspective, focusing on a well‐sampled group of edible EM mushrooms from the genus Amanita—the Caesar's mushrooms, which follow similar diversity patterns. Our approach consisted in applying a suite of models including (1) nontrait‐dependent time‐varying diversification (Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures [BAMM]), (2) continuous trait‐dependent diversification (quantitative‐state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]), and (3) diversity‐dependent diversification. In short, results give strong support for high speciation rates at temperate latitudes (BAMM and QuaSSE). We also find some evidence for different diversity‐dependence thresholds in “temperate” and “tropical” subclades, and little differences in diversity due to extinction. We conclude that our analyses on the Caesar's mushrooms give further evidence of a temperate‐peaking LDG in EM fungi, highlighting the importance and the implications of macroevolutionary processes in explaining diversity gradients in microorganisms.     

Primate diversification inferred from phylogenies and fossils

Biodiversity arises from the balance between speciation and extinction. Fossils record the origins and disappearance of organisms, and the branching patterns of molecular phylogenies allow estimation of speciation and extinction rates, but the patterns of diversification are frequently incongruent between these two data sources. I tested two hypotheses about the diversification of primates based on ～600 fossil species and 90% complete phylogenies of living species: (1) diversification rates increased through time; (2) a significant extinction event occurred in the Oligocene. Consistent with the first hypothesis, analyses of phylogenies supported increasing speciation rates and negligible extinction rates. In contrast, fossils showed that while speciation rates increased, speciation and extinction rates tended to be nearly equal, resulting in zero net diversification. Partially supporting the second hypothesis, the fossil data recorded a clear pattern of diversity decline in the Oligocene, although diversification rates were near zero. The phylogeny supported increased extinction ～34 Ma, but also elevated extinction ～10 Ma, coinciding with diversity declines in some fossil clades. The results demonstrated that estimates of speciation and extinction ignoring fossils are insufficient to infer diversification and information on extinct lineages should be incorporated into phylogenetic analyses.     

Density-dependent diversification in North American wood warblers

Evidence from both molecular phylogenies and the fossil record suggests that rates of species diversification often decline through time during evolutionary radiations. One proposed explanation for this pattern is ecological opportunity, whereby an initial abundance of resources and lack of potential competitors facilitate rapid diversification. This model predicts density-dependent declines in diversification rates, but has not been formally tested in any species-level radiation. Here we develop a new conceptual framework that distinguishes density dependence from alternative processes that also produce temporally declining diversification, and we demonstrate this approach using a new phylogeny of North American Dendroica wood warblers. We show that explosive lineage accumulation early in the history of this avian radiation is best explained by a density-dependent diversification process. Our results suggest that the tempo of wood warbler diversification was mediated by ecological interactions among species and that lineage and ecological diversification in this group are coupled, as predicted under the ecological opportunity model.     

Understanding the effect of competition during evolutionary radiations: an integrated model of phenotypic and species diversification

Competition can drive macroevolutionary change, for example during adaptive radiations. However, we still lack a clear understanding of how it shapes diversification processes and patterns. To better understand the macroevolutionary consequences of competition, as well as the signal left on phylogenetic data, we developed a model linking trait evolution and species diversification in an ecological context. We find four main results: first, competition spurs trait diversity but not necessarily species richness; second, competition produces slowdowns in species diversification even in the absence of explicit ecological limits, but not in phenotypic diversification even in the presence of such limits; third, early burst patterns do not provide a reliable way of testing for adaptive radiations; and fourth, looking for phylogenetic signal in trait data and support for phenotypic models incorporating competition is a better alternative. Our results clarify the macroevolutionary consequences of competition and could help design more powerful tests of adaptive radiations in nature.     

The ecological dynamics of clade diversification and community assembly

Clades diversify in an ecological context, but most macroevolutionary models do not directly encapsulate ecological mechanisms that influence speciation and extinction. A data set of 245 chordate, arthropod, mollusk, and magnoliophyte phylogenies had a majority of clades that showed rapid lineage accumulation early with a slowing more recently, whereas a small but significant minority showed accelerated lineage accumulation in their recent histories. Previous analyses have demonstrated that macroevolutionary birth-death models can replicate the pattern of slowing lineage accumulation only by a strong decrease in speciation rate with increasing species richness and extinction rate held extremely low or absent. In contrast, the metacommunity model presented here could generate the full range of patterns seen in the real phylogenies by simply manipulating the degree of ecological differentiation of new species at the time of speciation. Specifically, the metacommunity model predicts that clades showing decelerating lineage accumulation rates are those that have diversified by ecological modes of speciation, whereas clades showing accelerating lineage accumulation rates are those that have diversified primarily by modes of speciation that generate little or no ecological diversification. A number of testable predictions that integrate data from molecular systematics, community ecology, and biogeography are also discussed.     

Environmental changes define ecological limits to species richness and reveal the mode of macroevolutionary competition

Co‐dependent geological and climatic changes obscure how species interact in deep time. The interplay between these environmental factors makes it hard to discern whether ecological competition exerts an upper limit on species richness. Here, using the exceptional fossil record of Cenozoic Era macroperforate planktonic foraminifera, we assess the evidence for alternative modes of macroevolutionary competition. Our models support an environmentally dependent macroevolutionary form of contest competition that yields finite upper bounds on species richness. Models of biotic competition assuming unchanging environmental conditions were overwhelmingly rejected. In the best‐supported model, temperature affects the per‐lineage diversification rate, while both temperature and an environmental driver of sediment accumulation defines the upper limit. The support for contest competition implies that incumbency constrains species richness by restricting niche availability, and that the number of macroevolutionary niches varies as a function of environmental changes.     

Phylogenetic estimates of diversification rate are affected by molecular rate variation

Molecular phylogenies are increasingly being used to investigate the patterns and mechanisms of macroevolution. In particular, node heights in a phylogeny can be used to detect changes in rates of diversification over time. Such analyses rest on the assumption that node heights in a phylogeny represent the timing of diversification events, which in turn rests on the assumption that evolutionary time can be accurately predicted from DNA sequence divergence. But there are many influences on the rate of molecular evolution, which might also influence node heights in molecular phylogenies, and thus affect estimates of diversification rate. In particular, a growing number of studies have revealed an association between the net diversification rate estimated from phylogenies and the rate of molecular evolution. Such an association might, by influencing the relative position of node heights, systematically bias estimates of diversification time. We simulated the evolution of DNA sequences under several scenarios where rates of diversification and molecular evolution vary through time, including models where diversification and molecular evolutionary rates are linked. We show that commonly used methods, including metric‐based, likelihood and Bayesian approaches, can have a low power to identify changes in diversification rate when molecular substitution rates vary. Furthermore, the association between the rates of speciation and molecular evolution rate can cause the signature of a slowdown or speedup in speciation rates to be lost or misidentified. These results suggest that the multiple sources of variation in molecular evolutionary rates need to be considered when inferring macroevolutionary processes from phylogenies.     

Interspecific geographic range size–body size relationship and the diversification dynamics of Neotropical furnariid birds

Among the earliest macroecological patterns documented, is the range and body size relationship, characterized by a minimum geographic range size imposed by the species’ body size. This boundary for the geographic range size increases linearly with body size and has been proposed to have implications in lineages evolution and conservation. Nevertheless, the macroevolutionary processes involved in the origin of this boundary and its consequences on lineage diversification have been poorly explored. We evaluate the macroevolutionary consequences of the difference (hereafter the distance) between the observed and the minimum range sizes required by the species’ body size, to untangle its role on the diversification of a Neotropical species‐rich bird clade using trait‐dependent diversification models. We show that speciation rate is a positive hump‐shaped function of the distance to the lower boundary. The species with highest and lowest distances to minimum range size had lower speciation rates, while species close to medium distances values had the highest speciation rates. Further, our results suggest that the distance to the minimum range size is a macroevolutionary constraint that affects the diversification process responsible for the origin of this macroecological pattern in a more complex way than previously envisioned.     

Mass turnover and recovery dynamics of a diverse Australian continental radiation

Trends in global and local climate history have been linked to observed macroevolutionary patterns across a variety of organisms. These climatic pressures may unilaterally or asymmetrically influence the evolutionary trajectory of clades. To test and compare signatures of changing global (Eocene‐Oligocene boundary cooling) and continental (Miocene aridification) environments on a continental fauna, we investigated the macroevolutionary dynamics of one of Australia's most diverse endemic radiations, pygopodoid geckos. We generated a time‐calibrated phylogeny (>90% taxon coverage) to test whether (i) asymmetrical pygopodoid tree shape may be the result of mass turnover deep in the group's history, and (ii) how Miocene aridification shaped trends in biome assemblages. We find evidence of mass turnover in pygopodoids following the isolation of the Australian continental plate ～30 million years ago, and in contrast, gradual aridification is linked to elevated speciation rates in the young arid zone. Surprisingly, our results suggest that invasion of arid habitats was not an evolutionary end point. Instead, arid Australia has acted as a source for diversity, with repeated outward dispersals having facilitated diversification of this group. This pattern contrasts trends in richness and distribution of other Australian vertebrates, illustrating the profound effects historical biome changes have on macroevolutionary patterns.     

Parasitoid fig‐wasp evolutionary diversification and variation in ecological opportunity

Ecological processes are manifest in the evolution and form of phenotype diversity. The great abundance of parasitoid species has led to speculation whether rates of speciation and extinction are dependent on parasitoid diversity. If these factors are mutually exclusive, species diversity should fluctuate instead of remaining relatively constant over time. It is not known whether radiations constrained by coevolutionary interactions conform to density‐dependent diversification processes. Here we test the prediction that parasitoid fig wasp diversification responds to changes in ecological opportunity and density‐independent processes. A phylogenetic approach is used to estimate relative divergence times and infer diversification rate changes using γ‐statistics. Monte Carlo constant rates tests that accommodate incomplete sampling could not reject constant rates diversification. Parasitoid fig wasp diversification is consistent with a more complex explanation than density‐dependent cladogenesis. The results suggest contemporary African parasitoid fig wasp diversity remains a legacy of an ancient ecological opportunity facilitated by fig tree diversification following the breakup of Pan‐African forests and evolution of the savanna biome over the last 55 Ma and the more recent aridification of the African continent in the last 5 Ma. These results imply that amplified phenotypic differentiation of specialist insects coevolving with plants is coupled to evolutionarily infrequent changes in ecological opportunity.     

FiSSE: A simple nonparametric test for the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates

It is widely assumed that phenotypic traits can influence rates of speciation and extinction, and several statistical approaches have been used to test for correlations between character states and lineage diversification. Recent work suggests that model‐based tests of state‐dependent speciation and extinction are sensitive to model inadequacy and phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We describe a simple nonparametric statistical test (“FiSSE”) to assess the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates. The method involves computing a test statistic that compares the distributions of branch lengths for lineages with and without a character state of interest. The value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution generated by simulating character histories on the observed phylogeny. Our tests show that FiSSE can reliably infer trait‐dependent speciation on phylogenies of several hundred tips. The method has low power to detect trait‐dependent extinction but can infer state‐dependent differences in speciation even when net diversification rates are constant. We assemble a range of macroevolutionary scenarios that are problematic for likelihood‐based methods, and we find that FiSSE does not show similarly elevated false positive rates. We suggest that nonparametric statistical approaches, such as FiSSE, provide an important complement to formal process‐based models for trait‐dependent diversification.     

Speciation dynamics during the global radiation of extant bats

Species richness varies widely across extant clades, but the causes of this variation remain poorly understood. We investigate the role of diversification rate heterogeneity in shaping patterns of diversity across families of extant bats. To provide a robust framework for macroevolutionary inference, we assemble a time‐calibrated, species‐level phylogeny using a supermatrix of mitochondrial and nuclear sequence data. We analyze the phylogeny using a Bayesian method for modeling complex evolutionary dynamics. Surprisingly, we find that variation in family richness can largely be explained without invoking heterogeneous diversification dynamics. We document only a single well‐supported shift in diversification dynamics across bats, occurring at the base of the subfamily Stenodermatinae. Bat diversity is phylogenetically imbalanced, but—contrary to previous hypotheses—this pattern is unexplained by any simple patterns of diversification rate heterogeneity. This discordance may indicate that diversification dynamics are more complex than can be captured using the statistical tools available for modeling data at this scale. We infer that bats as a whole are almost entirely united into one macroevolutionary cohort, with decelerating speciation through time. There is also a significant relationship between clade age and richness, suggesting that global bat diversity may still be expanding.     

Microevolutionary patterns in the common caiman predict macroevolutionary trends across extant crocodilians

Both extinct and extant crocodilians have repeatedly diversified in skull shape along a continuum, from narrow‐snouted to broad‐snouted phenotypes. These patterns occur with striking regularity, although it is currently unknown whether these trends also apply to microevolutionary divergence during population differentiation or the early stages of speciation. Assessing patterns of intraspecific variation within a single taxon can potentially provide insight into the processes of macroevolutionary differentiation. For example, high levels of intraspecific variation along a narrow‐broad axis would be consistent with the view that cranial shapes can show predictable patterns of differentiation on relatively short timescales, and potentially scale up to explain broader macroevolutionary patterns. In the present study, we use geometric morphometric methods to characterize intraspecific cranial shape variation among groups within a single, widely distributed clade, Caiman crocodilus. We show that C. crocodilus skulls vary along a narrow/broad‐snouted continuum, with different subspecies strongly clustered at distinct ends of the continuum. We quantitatively compare these microevolutionary trends with patterns of diversity at macroevolutionary scales (among all extant crocodilians). We find that morphological differences among the subspecies of C. crocodilus parallel the patterns of morphological differentiation across extant crocodilians, with the primary axes of morphological diversity being highly correlated across the two scales. We find intraspecific cranial shape variation within C. crocodilus to span variation characterized by more than half of living species. We show the main axis of intraspecific phenotypic variation to align with the principal direction of macroevolutionary diversification in crocodilian cranial shape, suggesting that mechanisms of microevolutionary divergence within species may also explain broader patterns of diversification at higher taxonomic levels.     

Detecting shifts in diversity limits from molecular phylogenies: what can we know?

Large complete species-level molecular phylogenies can provide the most direct information about the macroevolutionary history of clades having poor fossil records. However, extinction will ultimately erode evidence of pulses of rapid speciation in the deep past. Assessment of how well, and for how long, phylogenies retain the signature of such pulses has hitherto been based on a--probably untenable--model of ongoing diversity-independent diversification. Here, we develop two new tests for changes in diversification 'rules' and evaluate their power to detect sudden increases in equilibrium diversity in clades simulated with diversity-dependent speciation and extinction rates. Pulses of diversification are only detected easily if they occurred recently and if the rate of species turnover at equilibrium is low; rates reported for fossil mammals suggest that the power to detect a doubling of species diversity falls to 50 per cent after less than 50 Myr even with a perfect phylogeny of extant species. Extinction does eventually draw a veil over past dynamics, suggesting that some questions are beyond the limits of inference, but sudden clade-wide pulses of speciation can be detected after many millions of years, even when overall diversity is constrained. Applying our methods to existing phylogenies of mammals and angiosperms identifies intervals of elevated diversification in each.     

Temporal scales of density‐dependent habitat selection in a large grazing herbivore

Habitat selection is a density‐dependent process, but little is known regarding how this relationship may vary across different temporal scales. Over long time scales, grazing shapes the structure, diversity and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and grazing‐induced changes in forage production over time are likely to affect the level of density dependence in habitat selection. In this fully‐replicated, landscape‐scale experiment, we investigated how density‐dependent habitat selection by a large grazing herbivore, sheep Ovis aries, develops over the time scale of a decade. We also address an often‐neglected challenge in habitat selection studies; namely, whether there is variation in use within a particular habitat or vegetation type and why. We found clear evidence of density dependence in habitat selection, with a wider use of habitats at high density. Despite a change in the standing biomass of high‐productivity vegetation at high herbivore density over the years, with herb biomass declining and graminoid biomass increasing, there was no clear evidence that these grazing‐induced changes in habitat over the years were strong enough to affect the level of density‐dependent habitat selection. The difference in selection for high versus low‐productivity habitats remained similar, despite annual fluctuations in the strength of selection. We found strong variation in selection within each vegetation type, even when vegetation types were mapped at a fine‐resolution scale. Our study shows that despite the interactive effects of herbivores and habitats, they are not always sufficiently strong enough to affect the level of density‐dependent habitat selection.     

Phylogenies support out‐of‐equilibrium models of biodiversity

There is a long tradition in ecology of studying models of biodiversity at equilibrium. These models, including the influential Neutral Theory of Biodiversity, have been successful at predicting major macroecological patterns, such as species abundance distributions. But they have failed to predict macroevolutionary patterns, such as those captured in phylogenetic trees. Here, we develop a model of biodiversity in which all individuals have identical demographic rates, metacommunity size is allowed to vary stochastically according to population dynamics, and speciation arises naturally from the accumulation of point mutations. We show that this model generates phylogenies matching those observed in nature if the metacommunity is out of equilibrium. We develop a likelihood inference framework that allows fitting our model to empirical phylogenies, and apply this framework to various mammalian families. Our results corroborate the hypothesis that biodiversity dynamics are out of equilibrium.