Impact of landscape predictors on climate change modelling of species distributions: a case study with Eucalyptus fastigata in southern New South Wales,Australia

Aim We consider three questions. (1) How different are the predicted distribution maps when climate‐only and climate‐plus‐terrain models are developed from high‐resolution data? (2) What are the implications of differences between the models when predicting future distributions under climate change scenarios, particularly for climate‐only models at coarse resolution? (3) Does the use of high‐resolution data and climate‐plus‐terrain models predict an increase in the number of local refugia? Location South‐eastern New South Wales, Australia. Methods We developed two species distribution models for Eucalyptus fastigata under current climate conditions using generalized additive modelling. One used only climate variables as predictors (mean annual temperature, mean annual rainfall, mean summer rainfall); the other used both climate and landscape (June daily radiation, topographic position, lithology, nutrients) variables as predictors. Predictions of the distribution under current climate and climate change were then made for both models at a pixel resolution of 100 m. Results The model using climate and landscape variables as predictors explained a significantly greater proportion of the deviance than the climate‐only model. Inclusion of landscape variables resulted in the prediction of much larger areas of existing optimal habitat. An overlay of predicted future climate on the current climate space indicated that extrapolation of the statistical models was not occurring and models were therefore more robust. Under climate change, landscape‐defined refugia persisted in areas where the climate‐only model predicted major declines. In areas where expansion was predicted, the increase in optimal habitat was always greater with landscape predictors. Recognition of extensive optimal habitat conditions and potential refugia was dependent on the use of high‐resolution landscape data. Main conclusions Using only climate variables as predictors for assessing species responses to climate change ignores the accepted conceptual model of plant species distribution. Explicit statements justifying the selection of predictors based on ecological principles are needed. Models using only climate variables overestimate range reduction under climate change and fail to predict potential refugia. Fine‐scale‐resolution data are required to capture important climate/landscape interactions. Extrapolation of statistical models to regions in climate space outside the region where they were fitted is risky.     

Genetic similarity of disjunct populations of the giant sea bass Stereolepis gigas

Sequence variation in nuclear and mitochondrial genes of the giant sea bass Stereolepis gigas collected from the Pacific coast and the northern Sea of Cortez was examined. Restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and direct sequencing showed extremely low mtDNA sequence diversity (13 closely related haplotypes with no evidence of geographical population subdivision). The mitochondrial haplotype mismatch distribution is consistent with a population expansion following the Last Pleistocene glaciation. Differences in single nucleotide polymorphism frequencies between Pacific and Sea of Cortez populations were detected at two of four nuclear loci, which may reflect natural selection or genetic drift in populations with low effective numbers of males. Although Pacific coast and Sea of Cortez populations of giant sea bass do not exhibit the mitochondrial phylogenetic break characteristic of many species with disjunct Pacific and Gulf populations, the possibility of genetic differentiation at nuclear loci suggests that a cautious approach to broodstock selection for captive breeding and restoration programmes be exercised.     

Principal component analysis of gene frequencies of Chinese populations

Principal components (PCs) were calculated based on gene frequencies of 130 alleles at 38 loci in Chinese populations, and geographic PC maps were constructed. The first PC map of the Han shows the genetic difference between Southern and Northern Mongoloids, while the second PC indicates the gene flow between Caucasoid and Mongoloids. The first PC map of the Chinese ethnic minorities is similar to that of the second PC map of the Han, while their second PC map is similar to the first PC map of the Han. When calculating PC with the gene frequency data from both the Han and ethnic minorities, the first and second PC maps most resemble those of the ethnic minorities alone. The third and fourth PC maps of Chinese populations may reflect historical events that allowed the expansion of the populations in the highly civilized regions. A clear-cut boundary between Southern and Northern Mongoloids in the synthetic map of the Chinese populations was observed in the zone of the Yangtze River. We suggest that the ancestors of Southern and Northern Mongoloids had already separated before reaching Asia. The ancestors of the Southern Mongoloids may result from the initial expansion from Africa or the Middle East, via the south coast of Asia, toward Southeast Asia, and ultimately South China. Upon reaching the Yangtze River, they might even have crossed the river to occupy the nearby regions for a period of time. The ancestors of the Northern Mongoloids probably expanded from Africa via the Northern Pamirs, first went eastward, then towards the south to reach the Yangtze River. The expansion of the Northern Mongoloids toward the south of the Yangtze River happened only in the last 2 or 3 thousand years.     

The ability of climate envelope models to predict the effect of climate change on species distributions

Climate envelope models (CEMs) have been used to predict the distribution of species under current, past, and future climatic conditions by inferring a species' environmental requirements from localities where it is currently known to occur. CEMs can be evaluated for their ability to predict current species distributions but it is unclear whether models that are successful in predicting current distributions are equally successful in predicting distributions under different climates (i.e. different regions or time periods). We evaluated the ability of CEMs to predict species distributions under different climates by comparing their predictions with those obtained with a mechanistic model (MM). In an MM the distribution of a species is modeled based on knowledge of a species' physiology. The potential distributions of 100 plant species were modeled with an MM for current conditions, a past climate reconstruction (21 000 years before present) and a future climate projection (double preindustrial CO₂ conditions). Point localities extracted from the currently suitable area according to the MM were used to predict current, future, and past distributions with four CEMs covering a broad range of statistical approaches: Bioclim (percentile distributions), Domain (distance metric), GAM (general additive modeling), and Maxent (maximum entropy). Domain performed very poorly, strongly underestimating range sizes for past or future conditions. Maxent and GAM performed as well under current climates as under past and future climates. Bioclim slightly underestimated range sizes but the predicted ranges overlapped more with the ranges predicted with the MM than those predicted with GAM did. Ranges predicted with Maxent overlapped most with those produced with the MMs, but compared with the ranges predicted with GAM they were more variable and sometimes much too large. Our results suggest that some CEMs can indeed be used to predict species distributions under climate change, but individual modeling approaches should be validated for this purpose, and model choice could be made dependent on the purpose of a particular study.     

Global warming will affect the genetic diversity and uniqueness of Lycaena helle populations

The climate warming of the postglacial has strongly reduced the distribution of cold‐adapted species over most of Central Europe. Such taxa have therefore become extinct over most of the lowlands and shifted to higher altitudes where they have survived to the present day. The lycaenid butterfly Lycaena helle follows this pattern of former widespread distribution and later restriction to mountain areas such as the European middle mountains. We sampled 203 individuals from 10 populations representing six mountain ranges (Pyrenees, Jura, Massif Central, Morvan, Vosges and Ardennes) over the species' western distribution. Allozyme and microsatellite polymorphisms were analysed to study the genetic status of these highly fragmented populations. Both molecular marker systems revealed a strong genetic differentiation among the analysed populations, coinciding with the orographic structure and highly restricted gene flow among them. The large‐scale genetic differentiation is more pronounced in allozymes (F_CT: 0.326) than in microsatellites (R_CT: 0.113), but microsatellites show a higher resolution on the regional scale (R_SC: 0.082) compared with allozymes (F_SC: n.s.). For both analytical tools, we found private alleles occurring exclusively in a single mountain area. The highly fragmented and isolated occurrence of populations is supported by the distribution pattern of potentially suitable climate suggested by species distribution models. Model projections under two climate warming scenarios predict a decline of climatically suitable areas, which will result in the extinction of most of the populations showing unique genetic characteristics.     

Principal component analysis of gene frequencies of Chinese populations

Principal components (PCs) were calculated based on gene frequencies of 130 alleles at 38 loci in Chinese populations, and geographic PC maps were constructed. The first PC map of the Han shows the genetic difference between Southern and Northern Mongoloids, while the second PC indicates the gene flow between Caucasoid and Mongoloids. The first PC map of the Chinese ethnic minorities is similar to that of the second PC map of the Han, while their second PC map is similar to the first PC map of the Han. When calculating PC with the gene frequency data from both the Han and ethnic minorities, the first and second PC maps most resemble those of the ethnic minorities alone. The third and fourth PC maps of Chinese populations may reflect historical events that allowed the expansion of the populations in the highly civilized regions. A clear-cut boundary between Southern and Northern Mongoloids in the synthetic map of the Chinese populations was observed in the zone of the Yangtze River. We suggest that the a     

Modeling distributions of disjunct populations of the Sierra Madre Sparrow

ABSTRACT Sierra Madre Sparrows (Xenospiza baileyi) are among the least known of all bird species in Mexico. Recent surveys have discovered previously unknown populations and the current known distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows consists of two populations separated by >800 km. We used available distributional information to develop ecological niche models that (1) predict much of the distribution potential of the species, (2) establish that the broad disjunction separating the two populations has ecological correlates that appear to be important to the distributional of these sparrows, and (3) illustrate the extremely restricted ecological distribution of the species. We used two sets of climatic and topographic variables, with one including all 22 variables available and the second with only six variables that were positively related to quality of distributional models. Although indications of differences between the two sets of populations were found based on the full 22‐dimensional environmental dataset, such a highly dimensional analysis is vulnerable to over‐fitting; models based on the reduced dataset indicated that the two populations occur in areas with similar ecological conditions. Our models also suggest that southern population of Sierra Madre Sparrows covers most of their potential range in that region. The potential range of the northern population, however, extends beyond known points of occurrence. To clarify the distribution of Sierra Madre Sparrows and evaluate their status and conservation opportunities, detailed searches for additional populations in areas identified by the model are needed.     

Climate envelope modelling reveals intraspecific relationships among flowering phenology, niche breadth and potential range size in Arabidopsis thaliana

Species often harbour large amounts of phenotypic variation in ecologically important traits, and some of this variation is genetically based. Understanding how this genetic variation is spatially structured can help to understand species' ecological tolerances and range limits. We modelled the climate envelopes of Arabidopsis thaliana genotypes, ranging from early- to late-flowering, as a function of several climatic variables. We found that genotypes with contrasting alleles at individual flowering time loci differed significantly in potential range size and niche breadth. We also found that later flowering genotypes had more restricted range potentials and narrower niche breadths than earlier flowering genotypes, indicating that local selection on flowering can constrain or enhance the ability of populations to colonise other areas. Our study demonstrates how climate envelope models that incorporate ecologically important genetic variation can provide insights into the macroecology of a species, which is important to understand its responses to changing environments.     

Bioclimatic analysis in a region of southern Italy (Calabria)

In this study, an analysis of precipitation and temperature data has been performed over 67 series observed in a region of southern Italy (Calabria). At first, to detect possible trends in the time series, an analysis was performed with the Mann–Kendall non-parametric test applied at monthly and seasonal scale. An additional investigation, useful for checking the climate change effects on vegetation, has also been included analysing bioclimatic indicators. In particular, Emberger, Rivas-Martinez and De Martonne indices were calculated by using monthly temperature and precipitation data in the period 1916–2010. The spatial pattern of the indices has been evaluated and, in order to link the vegetation and the indices, different indices maps have been intersected with the land cover data, given by the Corine Land Cover map. Moreover, the temporal evolution of the indices and of the vegetation has been analysed. Results suggest that climate change may be responsible for the forest cover change, but, given also the good relationship between the various types of bioclimate and forest formations, human activities must be considered.     

Numerical analysis of surface and fossil pollen spectra from northern Fennoscandia

Aim Determination of the main directions of variance in an extensive data base of annual pollen deposition, and the relationship between pollen data from modified Tauber traps and palaeoecological data. Location Northern Finland and Norway. Methods Pollen analysis of annual samples from pollen traps and contiguous high‐resolution samples from a peat sequence. Numerical analysis (principal components analysis) of the resulting data. Results The main direction of variation in the trap data is due to the vegetation region in which each trap is located. A secondary direction of variation is due to the annual variability of pollen production of some of the tree taxa, especially Betula and Pinus. This annual variability is more conspicuous in ‘absolute’ data than it is in percentage data which, at this annual resolution, becomes more random. There are systematic differences, with respect to peat‐forming taxa, between pollen data from traps and pollen data from a peat profile collected over the same period of time. Main conclusions Annual variability in pollen production is rarely visible in fossil pollen samples because these cannot be sampled at precisely a 12‐month resolution. At near‐annual resolution sampling, it results in erratic percentage values which do not reflect changes in vegetation. Profiles sampled at near annual resolution are better analysed in terms of pollen accumulation rates with the realization that even these do not record changes in plant abundance but changes in pollen abundance. However, at the coarser temporal resolution common in most fossil samples it does not mask the origin of the pollen in terms of its vegetation region. Climate change may not be recognizable from pollen assemblages until the change has persisted in the same direction sufficiently long enough to alter the flowering (pollen production) pattern of the dominant trees.     

Multivariate analysis of phyto-climatic patterns of the Croatian part of the eastern Adriatic coast

ABSTRACT

The present study analyses the climatic patterns of that part of the eastern Adriatic coast belonging to the Republic of Croatia and the narrow zone of the inlands. This area comprises a part of the Mediterranean phytogeographic region characterised by the Mediterranean climate type, and the transitional area towards the Eurosiberian phytogeographic region influenced by the continental climate type. The analysis was performed using multivariate numerical methods, cluster analysis following by the inertia analysis, and Principal Components Analysis with partitioning, considering the principal local climatic gradients in the data set. Six main climate classes were obtained. The results are biologically more interpretable than those obtained by using either numerical indices or the Walter climate diagram system. This suggests that multivariate numerical methods could be more efficient tools for detecting biologically significant climatic patterns on a small spatial scale.     

Modelling the distribution of a threatened habitat: the California sage scrub

Aim Using predictive species distribution and ecological niche modelling our objectives are: (1) to identify important climatic drivers of distribution at regional scales of a locally complex and dynamic system – California sage scrub; (2) to map suitable sage scrub habitat in California; and (3) to distinguish between bioclimatic niches of floristic groups within sage scrub to assess the conservation significance of analysing such species groups. Location Coastal mediterranean‐type shrublands of southern and central California. Methods Using point localities from georeferenced herbarium records, we modelled the potential distribution and bioclimatic envelopes of 14 characteristic sage scrub species and three floristic groups (south‐coastal, coastal–interior disjunct and broadly distributed species) based upon current climate conditions. Maxent was used to map climatically suitable habitat, while principal components analysis followed by canonical discriminant analysis were used to distinguish between floristic groups and visualize species and group distributions in multivariate ecological space. Results Geographical distribution patterns of individual species were mirrored in the habitat suitability maps of floristic groups, notably the disjunct distribution of the coastal–interior species. Overlap in the distributions of floristic groups was evident in both geographical and multivariate niche space; however, discriminant analysis confirmed the separability of floristic groups based on bioclimatic variables. Higher performance of floristic group models compared with sage scrub as a whole suggests that groups have differing climate requirements for habitat suitability at regional scales and that breaking sage scrub into floristic groups improves the discrimination between climatically suitable and unsuitable habitat. Main conclusions The finding that presence‐only data and climatic variables can produce useful information on habitat suitability of California sage scrub species and floristic groups at a regional scale has important implications for ongoing efforts of habitat restoration for sage scrub. In addition, modelling at a group level provides important information about the differences in climatic niches within California sage scrub. Finally, the high performance of our floristic group models highlights the potential a community‐level modelling approach holds for investigating plant distribution patterns.     

Mapping the disjunct distribution of introduced codling moth Cydia pomonella in China

相似文献   

河北省侧蒴藓类植物区系的主成分分析

根据较系统全面地野外调查、标本鉴定和整理,采用植物区系谱的主成分分析方法,对河北省侧蒴藓类植物区系进行了研究。结果表明;河北省侧蒴藓类植物共计196种(包括种以下单位),隶属于17科,66属。其中,北温带地理分布类型占主导地位,共计98种,占总种数的50．79％;东亚地理分布类型54种,占总种数的27．77％;中国特有分布类型16种,占总种数的8．38％;东亚—北美分布类型9种,占总种数的4．71％;旧世界温带分布类型9种,占总种数的4．71％;热带分布类型(包括泛热带分布类型和热带亚洲分布类型)仅有3种,占总种数的1．57％。运用植物区系谱的主成分分析对河北省与我国相邻地区侧蒴藓类植物关系的研究表明：西藏和横断山为一组,相异系数分别为31．9和43．5,与河北的联系相差最远;河北—东北—秦岭—内蒙古—山东为一组,内蒙古和山东在地理位置上与河北接壤,但相异系数分别达21．0和15．6,而河北与东北、秦岭相异系数分别为6．4和12．0,它们在区系关系上更为接近。分析结果对吴鹏程(1998)关于中国苔藓植物分布路线的观点以有力的支持,即存在喜马拉雅南麓地区—秦岭—东北的苔藓植物迁移路线;同时,说明大的山脉是苔藓植物进行扩散和传播的重要通道。     

Effects of spring drought and irrigation on farmland arthropods in southern Britain

1.  Information is lacking on how possible future changes in the seasonal occurrence and intensity of precipitation in Europe will affect the arthropod community of arable farmland.
2.  We used a novel experimental approach to investigate the responses of farmland arthropods to spring precipitation in a spring-sown legume. Replicated plots were subjected to spring drought (plots shielded from rainfall), actual rainfall (reference) and spring irrigation. Shielding plots extended an existing drought to 58 days.
3.  The response of epigeic arthropods was investigated using principal components analysis (PCA) and principal response curves (PRC). Temporal changes in treatment effects at the community level were more clearly displayed by PRC than by PCA, while PRC improved the interpretation of individual species' responses. PRC analysis has potential for wider application in ecological experiments and monitoring.
4.  Short-term manipulation of precipitation in May affected the arthropod community for at least 97 days, despite exceptionally high rainfall in June. The effects of drought on the abundance of herbivores, mycophages, omnivores and predators were negative, while those of irrigation were positive. There were no differences in the responses of beneficial and pest taxa.
5.  In addition to their intrinsic importance, these findings illustrate that spring weather might affect the availability of arthropod prey for insectivorous wildlife. Food availability has been implicated in the population declines of several insectivorous farmland birds.
6.  The difficulty of manipulating rainfall in a temperate climate precludes realistic field studies of how farmland arthropods respond to precipitation. We suggest that automated rain shielding of experimental plots provides a technique for wider application in drought studies.