Contextualizing mobility during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia

Based on findings from focus groups and key informant interviews conducted at five sites in Liberia between 2018 and 2019, we explore some of the key factors that influenced people’s motivation to travel during the 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). We discuss how these factors led to certain mobility patterns and the implications these had for EVD response. The reasons for individual mobility during the epidemic were multiple and diverse. Some movements were related to relocation efforts as people attempted to extricate themselves from stigmatizing situations. Others were motivated by fear, convinced that other communities would be safer, particularly if extended family members resided there. Individuals also felt compelled to travel during the epidemic to meet other needs and obligations, such as attending burial rites. Some expressed concerns about obtaining food and earning a livelihood. Notably, these latter concerns served as an impetus to travel surreptitiously to evade quarantine directives aimed specifically at restricting mobility. Improvements in future infectious disease response could be made by incorporating contextually-based mobility factors, for example: the personalization of public health messaging through the recruitment of family members and trusted local leaders, to convey information that would help allay fear and combat stigmatization; activating existing traditional community surveillance systems in which entry into the community must first be approved by the community chief; and increased involvement of local leaders and community members in the provision of food and care to those quarantined so that the need to travel for these reasons is removed.     

Ebola Cases and Health System Demand in Liberia

In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been sustained for greater than 12 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to several key policy questions concerning the path to containment. What is the relative importance of nosocomial transmission compared with community-acquired infection? How much must hospital capacity increase to provide care for the anticipated patient burden? To which interventions will Ebola transmission be most responsive? What must be done to achieve containment? In recent years, epidemic models have been used to guide public health interventions. But, model-based policy relies on high quality causal understanding of transmission, including the availability of appropriate dynamic transmission models and reliable reporting about the sequence of case incidence for model fitting, which were lacking for this epidemic. To investigate the range of potential transmission scenarios, we developed a multi-type branching process model that incorporates key heterogeneities and time-varying parameters to reflect changing human behavior and deliberate interventions in Liberia. Ensembles of this model were evaluated at a set of parameters that were both epidemiologically plausible and capable of reproducing the observed trajectory. Results of this model suggested that epidemic outcome would depend on both hospital capacity and individual behavior. Simulations suggested that if hospital capacity was not increased, then transmission might outpace the rate of isolation and the ability to provide care for the ill, infectious, and dying. Similarly, the model suggested that containment would require individuals to adopt behaviors that increase the rates of case identification and isolation and secure burial of the deceased. As of mid-October, it was unclear that this epidemic would be contained even by 99% hospitalization at the planned hospital capacity. A new version of the model, updated to reflect information collected during October and November 2014, predicts a significantly more constrained set of possible futures. This model suggests that epidemic outcome still depends very heavily on individual behavior. Particularly, if future patient hospitalization rates return to background levels (estimated to be around 70%), then transmission is predicted to remain just below the critical point around R _eff = 1. At the higher hospitalization rate of 85%, this model predicts near complete elimination in March to June, 2015.     

Social Consequences of Ebola Containment Measures in Liberia

Introduction

In the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia, two major emergency disease-control measures were cremation of bodies and enforcement of quarantine for asymptomatic individuals suspected of being in contact with a positive case. Enforced by State-related actors, these were promoted as the only method to curtail transmissions as soon as possible. However, as with other harsh measures witnessed by Liberian citizens, in many cases those measures elicited uncontrolled negative reactions within the communities (stigma; fear) that produced, in some cases, the opposite effect of that intended.

Methodology

The research has been conducted in two phases, for a total of 8 weeks. Ethnography of local practices was carried out in 7 neighbourhoods in Monrovia and 5 villages in Grand Cape Mount County in Liberia. 45 Focus Group Discussions (432 participants) and 30 semi-structured interviews sustained the observing participation. Randomly selected people from different social layers were targeted. The principal investigator worked with the help of two local assistants. Perceptions and practices were both analysed.

Results

Participants stressed how cremation perpetuated the social breakdown that started with the isolation for the sickness. Socio-economical divides were created by inequitable management of the dead: those who could bribe the burial teams obtained a burial in a private cemetery or the use of Funeral Homes. Conversely, those in economic disadvantage were forced to send their dead for cremation. State-enforced quarantine, with a mandatory prohibition of movement, raised condemnation, strengthened stigmatization and created serious socio-economic distress. Food was distributed intermittently and some houses shared latrines with non-quarantined neighbours. Escapes were also recorded. Study participants narrated how they adopted local measures of containment, through local task forces and socially-rooted control of outsiders. They also stressed how information that was not spread built up rumours and suspicion.

Conclusions

Populations experiencing an epidemic feel a high degree of social insecurity, in addition to the health hazards. Vertical and coercive measures increase mistrust and fear, producing a counter-productive effect in the containment of the epidemic. On the other hand, local communities show a will to be engaged and a high degree of flexibility in participating to the epidemic response. Efforts in the direction of awareness and community involvement could prove to be better strategy to control the epidemic and root the response on social participation.     

Fears and Misperceptions of the Ebola Response System during the 2014-2015 Outbreak in Sierra Leone

BackgroundFuture infectious disease epidemics are likely to disproportionately affect countries with weak health systems, exacerbating global vulnerability. To decrease the severity of epidemics in these settings, lessons can be drawn from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. There is a dearth of literature on public perceptions of the public health response system that required citizens to report and treat Ebola cases. Epidemiological reports suggested that there were delays in diagnosis and treatment. The purpose of our study was to explore the barriers preventing Sierra Leoneans from trusting and using the Ebola response system during the height of the outbreak.MethodsUsing an experienced ethnographer, we conducted 30 semi-structured in-depth interviews in public spaces in Ebola-affected areas. Participants were at least age 18, spoke Krio, and reported no contact in the recent 21 days with an Ebola-infected person. We used inductive coding and noted emergent themes.FindingsMost participants feared that calling the national hotline for someone they believed had Ebola would result in that person’s death. Many stated that if they developed a fever they would assume it was not Ebola and self-medicate. Some thought the chlorine sprayed by ambulance workers was toxic. Although most knew there was a laboratory test for Ebola, some erroneously assumed the ubiquitous thermometers were the test and most did not understand the need to re-test in the presence of Ebola symptoms.ConclusionFears and misperceptions, related to lack of trust in the response system, may have delayed care-seeking during the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. Protocols for future outbreak responses should incorporate dynamic, qualitative research to understand and address people’s perceptions. Strategies that enhance trust in the response system, such as community mobilization, may be particularly effective.     

Facility-Based Delivery during the Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic in Rural Liberia: Analysis from a Cross-Sectional,Population-Based Household Survey

BackgroundThe Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic has threatened access to basic health services through facility closures, resource diversion, and decreased demand due to community fear and distrust. While modeling studies have attempted to estimate the impact of these disruptions, no studies have yet utilized population-based survey data.ConclusionsWe detected a 30% decreased odds of FBD after the start of EVD in a rural Liberian county with relatively few cases. Because health facilities never closed in Rivercess County, this estimate may under-approximate the effect seen in the most heavily affected areas. These are the first population-based survey data to show collateral disruptions to facility-based delivery caused by the West African EVD epidemic, and they reinforce the need to consider the full spectrum of implications caused by public health emergencies.     

The role of nongovernmental organizations in the response to the AIDS epidemic

The main trends in the activities of the Public Movement "Faith, Hope, Love", organized by an initiative group of specialists in public health, law, public order maintenance, as well as volunteers, in June 1996 are presented. The main aspects of the activities of this non-governmental organization are the prevention of AIDS and sexually transmitted diseases (STD) among vulnerable groups of the population (female sex workers, injecting drug users, street children, representatives of sexual minorities); educational activities on the problems of the prevention of drug addiction and AIDS/STD among adolescents and young people; rendering psychological assistance to the vulnerable groups of the population; practical assistance to street children. Approaches and methods used in the work on AIDS/STD prevention among vulnerable groups of the population are as follows: active involvement of the representatives of vulnerable groups in preventive work, the creation of the possibility of contacts with specialists for representatives of vulnerable groups by opening confidence rooms, mutual assistance centers, provision with individual preventive remedies, active involvement of representatives of government structures in the realization of the projects carried out by the Movement, etc.     

Predicting and Evaluating the Epidemic Trend of Ebola Virus Disease in the 2014-2015 Outbreak and the Effects of Intervention Measures

We constructed dynamic Ebola virus disease (EVD) transmission models to predict epidemic trends and evaluate intervention measure efficacy following the 2014 EVD epidemic in West Africa. We estimated the effective vaccination rate for the population, with basic reproduction number (R₀) as the intermediate variable. Periodic EVD fluctuation was analyzed by solving a Jacobian matrix of differential equations based on a SIR (susceptible, infective, and removed) model. A comprehensive compartment model was constructed to fit and predict EVD transmission patterns, and to evaluate the effects of control and prevention measures. Effective EVD vaccination rates were estimated to be 42% (31–50%), 45% (42–48%), and 51% (44–56%) among susceptible individuals in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, respectively. In the absence of control measures, there would be rapid mortality in these three countries, and an EVD epidemic would be likely recur in 2035, and then again 8~9 years later. Oscillation intervals would shorten and outbreak severity would decrease until the periodicity reached ~5.3 years. Measures that reduced the spread of EVD included: early diagnosis, treatment in isolation, isolating/monitoring close contacts, timely corpse removal, post-recovery condom use, and preventing or quarantining imported cases. EVD may re-emerge within two decades without control and prevention measures. Mass vaccination campaigns and control and prevention measures should be instituted to prevent future EVD epidemics.     

西非防控埃博拉病毒病暴发和流行的分析

埃博拉出血热自1976年首次暴发以来,其高致死率引起了人们的高度重视。2014年的埃博拉病毒病疫情已造成6800多人死亡。其暴发流行既有病原学和流行病学因素,也与西非当地的政治、经济、文化、卫生现状及应对措施密切相关。因此,综合分析造成流行的因素,有利于尽快控制疫情的迅速蔓延。目前包括中国政府在内的国际社会给予了积极帮助,国际社会与西非本国防控力量的有效结合将在更短的时间内控制疫情,并为我国做好埃博拉病毒病疫情的相关防控提供新的思考。     

Deadly secret: situating the unknowing and knowing of the source of the Ebola epidemic in Northern Uganda

This article critically examines the unknowing of the source of the Ebola epidemic in Northern Uganda, in 2000/1, by asking how this unknowing has been achieved and has shaped the disease situation. Specifically, this article follows my informants’ explanation that soldiers of the Uganda People's Defence Force had brought the disease from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Uganda. This account is widely rejected as a rumour by scientists, who insist that the source of the epidemic remains unknown. By contrast, I suggest that following these stories, as embodied experiences of the multiple connections between war and epidemics, human and nonhuman lives, provides crucial insights into the political ecology of Ebola in the wider region – a region where, even today, conflict and Ebola outbreaks are intricately interwoven. Understanding how unknowing is achieved and shapes a disease situation directs attention to forms of silent knowing, which illuminate what preparedness means in the political ecology of Ebola.     

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

The 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.     

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ebola Virus Disease at Sub-National Level during the 2014 West Africa Epidemic: Model Scrutiny and Data Meagreness

Background

The Ebola outbreak in West Africa has infected at least 27,443 individuals and killed 11,207, based on data until 24 June, 2015, released by the World Health Organization (WHO). This outbreak has been characterised by extensive geographic spread across the affected countries Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, and by localized hotspots within these countries. The rapid recognition and quantitative assessment of localised areas of higher transmission can inform the optimal deployment of public health resources.

Methods

A variety of mathematical models have been used to estimate the evolution of this epidemic, and some have pointed out the importance of the spatial heterogeneity apparent from incidence maps. However, little is known about the district-level transmission. Given that many response decisions are taken at sub-national level, the current study aimed to investigate the spatial heterogeneity by using a different modelling framework, built on publicly available data at district level. Furthermore, we assessed whether this model could quantify the effect of intervention measures and provide predictions at a local level to guide public health action. We used a two-stage modelling approach: a) a flexible spatiotemporal growth model across all affected districts and b) a deterministic SEIR compartmental model per district whenever deemed appropriate.

Findings

Our estimates show substantial differences in the evolution of the outbreak in the various regions of Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone, illustrating the importance of monitoring the outbreak at district level. We also provide an estimate of the time-dependent district-specific effective reproduction number, as a quantitative measure to compare transmission between different districts and give input for informed decisions on control measures and resource allocation. Prediction and assessing the impact of control measures proved to be difficult without more accurate data. In conclusion, this study provides us a useful tool at district level for public health, and illustrates the importance of collecting and sharing data.     

杭州地区2009‒2014年非结核分枝杆菌流行状况分析

摘要：目的 研究近6年杭州市非结核分枝杆菌（Nontuberculous mycobacteria,NTM）的流行状况。方法 采用基因芯片和16S rRNA测序法鉴定2009年1月至2014年12月本院微生物实验室结核菌培养阳性的分离,并对相关资料进行总结分析。结果 6年间,从789例患者标本中分离798株分枝杆菌（剔除重复菌株）,NTM分离株171株,占21.4%,从2009年的11.9%上升到2014年的25.8%,MTB的构成比例降低和NTM比例升高的趋势有统计学意义（P=0.014）。NTM种群分布达18种,最常见的是胞内分支杆菌、鸟分支杆菌和脓肿分支杆菌,分别占30.4%、26.3%和20.5%。NTM阳性患者中,男性占66.3%,女性占33.7%,45~74岁年龄段合计占65.5%。抗酸杆菌涂片检查阳性的病例中NTM检出率由2009年的8.0%上升到2014年的22.0%,趋势分析P=0.014。结论 杭州地区分枝杆菌中NTM构成比例持续升高,2014年已达25.8%,以胞内分支杆菌、鸟分支杆菌和脓肿分支杆菌为主。开展NTM菌种鉴定,对鉴别诊断和有效治疗有重要意义。     

Health seeking behavior after the 2013–16 Ebola epidemic: Lassa fever as a metric of persistent changes in Kenema District,Sierra Leone

BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic of 2013–2016 killed nearly 4,000 Sierra Leoneans and devastated health infrastructure across West Africa. Changes in health seeking behavior (HSB) during the outbreak resulted in dramatic underreporting and substantial declines in hospital presentations to public health facilities, resulting in an estimated tens of thousands of additional maternal, infant, and adult deaths per year. Sierra Leone’s Kenema District, a major Ebola hotspot, is also endemic for Lassa fever (LF), another often-fatal hemorrhagic disease. Here we assess the impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on health seeking behaviors with respect to presentations to the Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) Lassa Ward, which serves as the primary health care referral center for suspected Lassa fever cases in the Eastern Province of Sierra Leone.Methodology/Principal findingsPresentation frequencies for suspected Lassa fever presenting to KGH or one of its referral centers from 2011–2019 were analyzed to consider the potential impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on presentation patterns. There was a significant decline in suspected LF cases presenting to KGH following the epidemic, and a lower percentage of subjects were admitted to the KGH Lassa Ward following the epidemic. To assess general HSB, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 200 residents from 8 villages in Kenema District. Among 194 completed interviews, 151 (78%) of respondents stated they felt hospitals were safer post-epidemic with no significant differences noted among subjects according to religious background, age, gender, or education. However, 37 (19%) subjects reported decreased attendance at hospitals since the epidemic, which suggests that trust in the healthcare system has not fully rebounded. Cost was identified as a major deterrent to seeking healthcare.Conclusions/SignificanceAnalysis of patient demographic data suggests that fewer individuals sought care for Lassa fever and other febrile illnesses in Kenema District after the West African Ebola epidemic. Re-establishing trust in health care services will require efforts beyond rebuilding infrastructure and require concerted efforts to rebuild the trust of local residents who may be wary of seeking healthcare post epidemic.     

2014—2016年某院铜绿假单胞菌耐药性监测

摘要：目的 分析铜绿假单胞菌的分布和耐药性变化,为临床防治铜绿假单胞菌感染提供依据。方法 收集成都大学附属医院2014—2016年所分离的铜绿假单胞菌,采用VITEK 2-Compact全自动细菌鉴定系统进行鉴定和药敏试验,采用WHONET 5.6软件对数据进行分析。结果 3年间共分离出1 945株铜绿假单胞菌,多重耐药铜绿假单胞菌分离率为34.2%（666/1945）。标本来源以呼吸道为主,占82.2%（1598/1945）。科室分布以呼吸内科最多,ICU其次。铜绿假单胞菌对头孢曲松和头孢噻肟的耐药率最高,均＞57.0%;对阿米卡星耐药率最低,为2.0%。3年来铜绿假单胞菌对17种抗生素的耐药率呈整体上升的趋势。结论 铜绿假单胞菌对头孢曲松、头孢噻肟、亚胺培南耐药率较高,对阿米卡星耐药率较低。铜绿假单胞菌的耐药率呈整体上升的趋势,应重视细菌耐药性的监测,以延缓耐药性产生、促进临床合理用药。     

2009－2014年玉溪市流感样病例监测的病原学分析

摘要：目的 了解玉溪市2009－2014 年流感流行特征和流感流行优势毒株的变化规律,为制定预防和控制策略提供依据。方法 采用MDCK细胞进行流感样病例标本的病毒分离培养,最后采用流感分型试剂进行病毒型别鉴定。结果 2009－2014年玉溪市流感实验室共监测流感样病例3 248例,阳性标本489份,阳性率为15.06%,新甲型H1N1、H3N2、B型流感分别占43.97%、28.22%和25.36%,学生和离退人员阳性病例分别占52.15%和14.11%;哨点医院流感样病例标本阳性检出率低于暴发疫情,差异有统计学意义（χ2=301.14,P＜0.01);每年10月到次年3月出现流行高峰,2009年10月至2011年3月以新甲型H1N1流感为主,2011年4月至2012年3月以B型流感为主,2012年4月至2013年3月以A（H3N2）型流感为主;2013年4月至2014年3月以B型流感为主。结论 玉溪市流感病毒优势毒株是甲型H1N1、H3N2、B型流感,优势毒株在2009－2014 年发生了四次转变,其进一步变异的可能性仍然存在,加强流感样病例病原学与重点人群疫情监测有重要意义。