Community-Centered Responses to Ebola in Urban Liberia: The View from Below

BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic has demonstrated that the existing range of medical and epidemiological responses to emerging disease outbreaks is insufficient, especially in post-conflict contexts with exceedingly poor healthcare infrastructures. In this context, community-based responses have proven vital for containing Ebola virus disease (EVD) and shifting the epidemic curve. Despite a surge in interest in local innovations that effectively contained the epidemic, the mechanisms for community-based response remain unclear. This study provides baseline information on community-based epidemic control priorities and identifies innovative local strategies for containing EVD in Liberia.Conclusions/SignificanceLocal communities’ strategies and recommendations give insight into how urban Liberian communities contained the EVD outbreak while navigating the systemic failures of the initial state and international response. Communities in urban Liberia adapted to the epidemic using multiple coping strategies. In the absence of health, infrastructural and material supports, local people engaged in self-reliance in order to contain the epidemic at the micro-social level. These innovations were regarded as necessary, but as less desirable than a well-supported health-systems based response; and were seen as involving considerable individual, social, and public health costs, including heightened vulnerability to infection.     

Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa

The 2014–2015 Ebola outbreak is the largest and most widespread to date. In order to estimate ongoing transmission in the affected countries, we estimated the weekly average number of secondary cases caused by one individual infected with Ebola throughout the infectious period for each affected West African country using a stochastic hidden Markov model fitted to case data from the World Health Organization. If the average number of infections caused by one Ebola infection is less than 1.0, the epidemic is subcritical and cannot sustain itself. The epidemics in Liberia and Sierra Leone have approached subcriticality at some point during the epidemic; the epidemic in Guinea is ongoing with no evidence that it is subcritical. Response efforts to control the epidemic should continue in order to eliminate Ebola cases in West Africa.     

Contextualizing mobility during the Ebola epidemic in Liberia

Based on findings from focus groups and key informant interviews conducted at five sites in Liberia between 2018 and 2019, we explore some of the key factors that influenced people’s motivation to travel during the 2014–2016 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD). We discuss how these factors led to certain mobility patterns and the implications these had for EVD response. The reasons for individual mobility during the epidemic were multiple and diverse. Some movements were related to relocation efforts as people attempted to extricate themselves from stigmatizing situations. Others were motivated by fear, convinced that other communities would be safer, particularly if extended family members resided there. Individuals also felt compelled to travel during the epidemic to meet other needs and obligations, such as attending burial rites. Some expressed concerns about obtaining food and earning a livelihood. Notably, these latter concerns served as an impetus to travel surreptitiously to evade quarantine directives aimed specifically at restricting mobility. Improvements in future infectious disease response could be made by incorporating contextually-based mobility factors, for example: the personalization of public health messaging through the recruitment of family members and trusted local leaders, to convey information that would help allay fear and combat stigmatization; activating existing traditional community surveillance systems in which entry into the community must first be approved by the community chief; and increased involvement of local leaders and community members in the provision of food and care to those quarantined so that the need to travel for these reasons is removed.     

Fears and Misperceptions of the Ebola Response System during the 2014-2015 Outbreak in Sierra Leone

BackgroundFuture infectious disease epidemics are likely to disproportionately affect countries with weak health systems, exacerbating global vulnerability. To decrease the severity of epidemics in these settings, lessons can be drawn from the Ebola outbreak in West Africa. There is a dearth of literature on public perceptions of the public health response system that required citizens to report and treat Ebola cases. Epidemiological reports suggested that there were delays in diagnosis and treatment. The purpose of our study was to explore the barriers preventing Sierra Leoneans from trusting and using the Ebola response system during the height of the outbreak.MethodsUsing an experienced ethnographer, we conducted 30 semi-structured in-depth interviews in public spaces in Ebola-affected areas. Participants were at least age 18, spoke Krio, and reported no contact in the recent 21 days with an Ebola-infected person. We used inductive coding and noted emergent themes.FindingsMost participants feared that calling the national hotline for someone they believed had Ebola would result in that person’s death. Many stated that if they developed a fever they would assume it was not Ebola and self-medicate. Some thought the chlorine sprayed by ambulance workers was toxic. Although most knew there was a laboratory test for Ebola, some erroneously assumed the ubiquitous thermometers were the test and most did not understand the need to re-test in the presence of Ebola symptoms.ConclusionFears and misperceptions, related to lack of trust in the response system, may have delayed care-seeking during the Ebola outbreak in Sierra Leone. Protocols for future outbreak responses should incorporate dynamic, qualitative research to understand and address people’s perceptions. Strategies that enhance trust in the response system, such as community mobilization, may be particularly effective.     

Quantifying Poverty as a Driver of Ebola Transmission

Background

Poverty has been implicated as a challenge in the control of the current Ebola outbreak in West Africa. Although disparities between affected countries have been appreciated, disparities within West African countries have not been investigated as drivers of Ebola transmission. To quantify the role that poverty plays in the transmission of Ebola, we analyzed heterogeneity of Ebola incidence and transmission factors among over 300 communities, categorized by socioeconomic status (SES), within Montserrado County, Liberia.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We evaluated 4,437 Ebola cases reported between February 28, 2014 and December 1, 2014 for Montserrado County to determine SES-stratified temporal trends and drivers of Ebola transmission. A dataset including dates of symptom onset, hospitalization, and death, and specified community of residence was used to stratify cases into high, middle and low SES. Additionally, information about 9,129 contacts was provided for a subset of 1,585 traced individuals. To evaluate transmission within and across socioeconomic subpopulations, as well as over the trajectory of the outbreak, we analyzed these data with a time-dependent stochastic model. Cases in the most impoverished communities reported three more contacts on average than cases in high SES communities (p<0.001). Our transmission model shows that infected individuals from middle and low SES communities were associated with 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4–1.6) and 3.5 (95% CI: 3.1–3.9) times as many secondary cases as those from high SES communities, respectively. Furthermore, most of the spread of Ebola across Montserrado County originated from areas of lower SES.

Conclusions/Significance

Individuals from areas of poverty were associated with high rates of transmission and spread of Ebola to other regions. Thus, Ebola could most effectively be prevented or contained if disease interventions were targeted to areas of extreme poverty and funding was dedicated to development projects that meet basic needs.     

Social Consequences of Ebola Containment Measures in Liberia

Introduction

In the Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) outbreak in Liberia, two major emergency disease-control measures were cremation of bodies and enforcement of quarantine for asymptomatic individuals suspected of being in contact with a positive case. Enforced by State-related actors, these were promoted as the only method to curtail transmissions as soon as possible. However, as with other harsh measures witnessed by Liberian citizens, in many cases those measures elicited uncontrolled negative reactions within the communities (stigma; fear) that produced, in some cases, the opposite effect of that intended.

Methodology

The research has been conducted in two phases, for a total of 8 weeks. Ethnography of local practices was carried out in 7 neighbourhoods in Monrovia and 5 villages in Grand Cape Mount County in Liberia. 45 Focus Group Discussions (432 participants) and 30 semi-structured interviews sustained the observing participation. Randomly selected people from different social layers were targeted. The principal investigator worked with the help of two local assistants. Perceptions and practices were both analysed.

Results

Participants stressed how cremation perpetuated the social breakdown that started with the isolation for the sickness. Socio-economical divides were created by inequitable management of the dead: those who could bribe the burial teams obtained a burial in a private cemetery or the use of Funeral Homes. Conversely, those in economic disadvantage were forced to send their dead for cremation. State-enforced quarantine, with a mandatory prohibition of movement, raised condemnation, strengthened stigmatization and created serious socio-economic distress. Food was distributed intermittently and some houses shared latrines with non-quarantined neighbours. Escapes were also recorded. Study participants narrated how they adopted local measures of containment, through local task forces and socially-rooted control of outsiders. They also stressed how information that was not spread built up rumours and suspicion.

Conclusions

Populations experiencing an epidemic feel a high degree of social insecurity, in addition to the health hazards. Vertical and coercive measures increase mistrust and fear, producing a counter-productive effect in the containment of the epidemic. On the other hand, local communities show a will to be engaged and a high degree of flexibility in participating to the epidemic response. Efforts in the direction of awareness and community involvement could prove to be better strategy to control the epidemic and root the response on social participation.     

埃博拉病毒/埃博拉病—2014

2014年2月,死亡率极高的埃博拉病(EVD)开始在西部非洲的几内亚暴发流行,接下来,暴发流行出现在塞拉利昂、利比里亚、尼日利亚和塞内加尔另四个西部非洲的国家。现在,几内亚、利比里亚和塞拉利昂的疫情最重。迄今为止,已有4 784人患EVD,且人数仍在倍增,这次暴发流行已成为自40年前EVD被发现以来规模最大的一次,已形成了波及其他地区和国家的巨大危险。在此,综述2014年EVD暴发流行的起因,埃博拉病毒(EBOV)及其传播,EVD的诊断治疗,EBOV疫苗的研制以及EBOV感染的防控。     

Community engagement: leadership tool for catastrophic health events

Disasters and epidemics are immense and shocking disturbances that require the judgments and efforts of large numbers of people, not simply those who serve in an official capacity. This article reviews the Working Group on Community Engagement in Health Emergency Planning's recommendations to government decision makers on why and how to catalyze the civic infrastructure for an extreme health event. Community engagement--defined here as structured dialogue, joint problem solving, and collaborative action among formal authorities, citizens at-large, and local opinion leaders around a pressing public matter--can augment officials' abilities to govern in a crisis, improve application of communally held resources in a disaster or epidemic, and mitigate community wide losses. The case of limited medical options in an influenza pandemic serves to demonstrate the civic infrastructure's preparedness, response, and recovery capabilities and to illustrate how community engagement can improve pandemic contingency planning.     

Health seeking behavior after the 2013–16 Ebola epidemic: Lassa fever as a metric of persistent changes in Kenema District,Sierra Leone

BackgroundThe West African Ebola epidemic of 2013–2016 killed nearly 4,000 Sierra Leoneans and devastated health infrastructure across West Africa. Changes in health seeking behavior (HSB) during the outbreak resulted in dramatic underreporting and substantial declines in hospital presentations to public health facilities, resulting in an estimated tens of thousands of additional maternal, infant, and adult deaths per year. Sierra Leone’s Kenema District, a major Ebola hotspot, is also endemic for Lassa fever (LF), another often-fatal hemorrhagic disease. Here we assess the impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on health seeking behaviors with respect to presentations to the Kenema Government Hospital (KGH) Lassa Ward, which serves as the primary health care referral center for suspected Lassa fever cases in the Eastern Province of Sierra Leone.Methodology/Principal findingsPresentation frequencies for suspected Lassa fever presenting to KGH or one of its referral centers from 2011–2019 were analyzed to consider the potential impact of the West African Ebola epidemic on presentation patterns. There was a significant decline in suspected LF cases presenting to KGH following the epidemic, and a lower percentage of subjects were admitted to the KGH Lassa Ward following the epidemic. To assess general HSB, a questionnaire was developed and administered to 200 residents from 8 villages in Kenema District. Among 194 completed interviews, 151 (78%) of respondents stated they felt hospitals were safer post-epidemic with no significant differences noted among subjects according to religious background, age, gender, or education. However, 37 (19%) subjects reported decreased attendance at hospitals since the epidemic, which suggests that trust in the healthcare system has not fully rebounded. Cost was identified as a major deterrent to seeking healthcare.Conclusions/SignificanceAnalysis of patient demographic data suggests that fewer individuals sought care for Lassa fever and other febrile illnesses in Kenema District after the West African Ebola epidemic. Re-establishing trust in health care services will require efforts beyond rebuilding infrastructure and require concerted efforts to rebuild the trust of local residents who may be wary of seeking healthcare post epidemic.     

Deadly secret: situating the unknowing and knowing of the source of the Ebola epidemic in Northern Uganda

This article critically examines the unknowing of the source of the Ebola epidemic in Northern Uganda, in 2000/1, by asking how this unknowing has been achieved and has shaped the disease situation. Specifically, this article follows my informants’ explanation that soldiers of the Uganda People's Defence Force had brought the disease from the Democratic Republic of the Congo to Uganda. This account is widely rejected as a rumour by scientists, who insist that the source of the epidemic remains unknown. By contrast, I suggest that following these stories, as embodied experiences of the multiple connections between war and epidemics, human and nonhuman lives, provides crucial insights into the political ecology of Ebola in the wider region – a region where, even today, conflict and Ebola outbreaks are intricately interwoven. Understanding how unknowing is achieved and shapes a disease situation directs attention to forms of silent knowing, which illuminate what preparedness means in the political ecology of Ebola.     

Community Size Effects on Epidemic Spreading in Multiplex Social Networks

The dynamical process of epidemic spreading has drawn much attention of the complex network community. In the network paradigm, diseases spread from one person to another through the social ties amongst the population. There are a variety of factors that govern the processes of disease spreading on the networks. A common but not negligible factor is people’s reaction to the outbreak of epidemics. Such reaction can be related information dissemination or self-protection. In this work, we explore the interactions between disease spreading and population response in terms of information diffusion and individuals’ alertness. We model the system by mapping multiplex networks into two-layer networks and incorporating individuals’ risk awareness, on the assumption that their response to the disease spreading depends on the size of the community they belong to. By comparing the final incidence of diseases in multiplex networks, we find that there is considerable mitigation of diseases spreading for full phase of spreading speed when individuals’ protection responses are introduced. Interestingly, the degree of community overlap between the two layers is found to be critical factor that affects the final incidence. We also analyze the consequences of the epidemic incidence in communities with different sizes and the impacts of community overlap between two layers. Specifically, as the diseases information makes individuals alert and take measures to prevent the diseases, the effective protection is more striking in small community. These phenomena can be explained by the multiplexity of the networked system and the competition between two spreading processes.     

中国埃博拉诊疗中心布局流程的设计与思考

为了应对西非埃博拉病毒病疫情,中国人民解放军援利医疗队在利比里亚建立并独立运营了埃博拉诊疗中心。中心严格按照传染病医院的防护要求和标准,设计科学合理的布局流程,实现有效的感染防控。详细说明了中国埃博拉诊疗中心的布局与流程设计,归纳阐述其特点,并对做好布局流程应把握的几个重点问题进行了探讨。     

What Factors Might Have Led to the Emergence of Ebola in West Africa?

An Ebola outbreak of unprecedented scope emerged in West Africa in December 2013 and presently continues unabated in the countries of Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia. Ebola is not new to Africa, and outbreaks have been confirmed as far back as 1976. The current West African Ebola outbreak is the largest ever recorded and differs dramatically from prior outbreaks in its duration, number of people affected, and geographic extent. The emergence of this deadly disease in West Africa invites many questions, foremost among these: why now, and why in West Africa? Here, we review the sociological, ecological, and environmental drivers that might have influenced the emergence of Ebola in this region of Africa and its spread throughout the region. Containment of the West African Ebola outbreak is the most pressing, immediate need. A comprehensive assessment of the drivers of Ebola emergence and sustained human-to-human transmission is also needed in order to prepare other countries for importation or emergence of this disease. Such assessment includes identification of country-level protocols and interagency policies for outbreak detection and rapid response, increased understanding of cultural and traditional risk factors within and between nations, delivery of culturally embedded public health education, and regional coordination and collaboration, particularly with governments and health ministries throughout Africa. Public health education is also urgently needed in countries outside of Africa in order to ensure that risk is properly understood and public concerns do not escalate unnecessarily. To prevent future outbreaks, coordinated, multiscale, early warning systems should be developed that make full use of these integrated assessments, partner with local communities in high-risk areas, and provide clearly defined response recommendations specific to the needs of each community.     

Lessons from the Ebola Outbreak: Action Items for Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness and Response

EcoHealth - As the Ebola outbreak in West Africa wanes, it is time for the international scientific community to reflect on how to improve the detection of and coordinated response to future...     

Measuring the unknown: An estimator and simulation study for assessing case reporting during epidemics

The fraction of cases reported, known as ‘reporting’, is a key performance indicator in an outbreak response, and an essential factor to consider when modelling epidemics and assessing their impact on populations. Unfortunately, its estimation is inherently difficult, as it relates to the part of an epidemic which is, by definition, not observed. We introduce a simple statistical method for estimating reporting, initially developed for the response to Ebola in Eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), 2018–2020. This approach uses transmission chain data typically gathered through case investigation and contact tracing, and uses the proportion of investigated cases with a known, reported infector as a proxy for reporting. Using simulated epidemics, we study how this method performs for different outbreak sizes and reporting levels. Results suggest that our method has low bias, reasonable precision, and despite sub-optimal coverage, usually provides estimates within close range (5–10%) of the true value. Being fast and simple, this method could be useful for estimating reporting in real-time in settings where person-to-person transmission is the main driver of the epidemic, and where case investigation is routinely performed as part of surveillance and contact tracing activities.     

Ebola Cases and Health System Demand in Liberia

In 2014, a major epidemic of human Ebola virus disease emerged in West Africa, where human-to-human transmission has now been sustained for greater than 12 months. In the summer of 2014, there was great uncertainty about the answers to several key policy questions concerning the path to containment. What is the relative importance of nosocomial transmission compared with community-acquired infection? How much must hospital capacity increase to provide care for the anticipated patient burden? To which interventions will Ebola transmission be most responsive? What must be done to achieve containment? In recent years, epidemic models have been used to guide public health interventions. But, model-based policy relies on high quality causal understanding of transmission, including the availability of appropriate dynamic transmission models and reliable reporting about the sequence of case incidence for model fitting, which were lacking for this epidemic. To investigate the range of potential transmission scenarios, we developed a multi-type branching process model that incorporates key heterogeneities and time-varying parameters to reflect changing human behavior and deliberate interventions in Liberia. Ensembles of this model were evaluated at a set of parameters that were both epidemiologically plausible and capable of reproducing the observed trajectory. Results of this model suggested that epidemic outcome would depend on both hospital capacity and individual behavior. Simulations suggested that if hospital capacity was not increased, then transmission might outpace the rate of isolation and the ability to provide care for the ill, infectious, and dying. Similarly, the model suggested that containment would require individuals to adopt behaviors that increase the rates of case identification and isolation and secure burial of the deceased. As of mid-October, it was unclear that this epidemic would be contained even by 99% hospitalization at the planned hospital capacity. A new version of the model, updated to reflect information collected during October and November 2014, predicts a significantly more constrained set of possible futures. This model suggests that epidemic outcome still depends very heavily on individual behavior. Particularly, if future patient hospitalization rates return to background levels (estimated to be around 70%), then transmission is predicted to remain just below the critical point around R _eff = 1. At the higher hospitalization rate of 85%, this model predicts near complete elimination in March to June, 2015.     

Temporal Course of 2014 Ebola Virus Disease (EVD) Outbreak in West Africa Elucidated through Morbidity and Mortality Data: A Tale of Three Countries

The explosive outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa in 2014 appeared to have lessened in 2015, but potentially continues be a global public health threat. A simple mathematical model, the Richards model, is utilized to gauge the temporal variability in the spread of the Ebola virus disease (EVD) in West Africa in terms of its reproduction number R and its temporal changes via detection of epidemic waves and turning points during the 2014 outbreaks in the three most severely affected countries; namely, Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. The results reveal multiple waves of infection in each of these three countries, of varying lengths from a little more than one week to more than one month. All three countries exhibit marginally fluctuating reproduction numbers during June-October before gradually declining. Although high mobility continues between neighboring populations of these countries across the borders, outbreak in these three countries exhibits decidedly different temporal patterns. Guinea had the most waves but maintained consistently low transmissibility and hence has the smallest number of reported cases. Liberia had highest level of transmission before October, but has remained low since, with no detectable wave after the New Year. Sierra Leone has gradually declining waves since October, but still generated detectable waves up to mid-March 2015, and hence has cumulated the largest number of cases—exceeding that of Guinea and Liberia combined. Analysis indicates that, despite massive amount of international relief and intervention efforts, the outbreak is persisting in these regions in waves, albeit more sparsely and at a much lower level since the beginning of 2015.     

Ebola hemorrhagic fever: Properties of the pathogen and development of vaccines and chemotherapeutic agents

Molecular Biology - Ebola hemorrhagic fever (EHF) epidemic currently ongoing in West Africa is not the first among numerous epidemics in the continent. Yet it seems to be the worst EHF epidemic...     

Harnessing Case Isolation and Ring Vaccination to Control Ebola

As a devastating Ebola outbreak in West Africa continues, non-pharmaceutical control measures including contact tracing, quarantine, and case isolation are being implemented. In addition, public health agencies are scaling up efforts to test and deploy candidate vaccines. Given the experimental nature and limited initial supplies of vaccines, a mass vaccination campaign might not be feasible. However, ring vaccination of likely case contacts could provide an effective alternative in distributing the vaccine. To evaluate ring vaccination as a strategy for eliminating Ebola, we developed a pair approximation model of Ebola transmission, parameterized by confirmed incidence data from June 2014 to January 2015 in Liberia and Sierra Leone. Our results suggest that if a combined intervention of case isolation and ring vaccination had been initiated in the early fall of 2014, up to an additional 126 cases in Liberia and 560 cases in Sierra Leone could have been averted beyond case isolation alone. The marginal benefit of ring vaccination is predicted to be greatest in settings where there are more contacts per individual, greater clustering among individuals, when contact tracing has low efficacy or vaccination confers post-exposure protection. In such settings, ring vaccination can avert up to an additional 8% of Ebola cases. Accordingly, ring vaccination is predicted to offer a moderately beneficial supplement to ongoing non-pharmaceutical Ebola control efforts.     

Equilibria of an Epidemic Game with Piecewise Linear Social Distancing Cost

Around the world, infectious disease epidemics continue to threaten people’s health. When epidemics strike, we often respond by changing our behaviors to reduce our risk of infection. This response is sometimes called “social distancing.” Since behavior changes can be costly, we would like to know the optimal social distancing behavior. But the benefits of changes in behavior depend on the course of the epidemic, which itself depends on our behaviors. Differential population game theory provides a method for resolving this circular dependence. Here, I present the analysis of a special case of the differential SIR epidemic population game with social distancing when the relative infection rate is linear, but bounded below by zero. Equilibrium solutions are constructed in closed-form for an open-ended epidemic. Constructions are also provided for epidemics that are stopped by the deployment of a vaccination that becomes available a fixed-time after the start of the epidemic. This can be used to anticipate a window of opportunity during which mass vaccination can significantly reduce the cost of an epidemic.