Model Discrimination and Mechanistic Interpretation of Kinetic Data in Protein Aggregation Studies

Given the importance of protein aggregation in amyloid diseases and in the manufacture of protein pharmaceuticals, there has been increased interest in measuring and modeling the kinetics of protein aggregation. Several groups have analyzed aggregation data quantitatively, typically measuring aggregation kinetics by following the loss of protein monomer over time and invoking a nucleated growth mechanism. Such analysis has led to mechanistic conclusions about the size and nature of the nucleus, the aggregation pathway, and/or the physicochemical properties of aggregation-prone proteins. We have examined some of the difficulties that arise when extracting mechanistic meaning from monomer-loss kinetic data. Using literature data on the aggregation of polyglutamine, a mutant β-clam protein, and protein L, we determined parameter values for 18 different kinetic models. We developed a statistical model discrimination method to analyze protein aggregation data in light of competing mechanisms; a key feature of the method is that it penalizes overparameterization. We show that, for typical monomer-loss kinetic data, multiple models provide equivalent fits, making mechanistic determination impossible. We also define the type and quality of experimental data needed to make more definitive conclusions about the mechanism of aggregation. Specifically, we demonstrate how direct measurement of fibril size provides robust discrimination.     

Thermodynamics of β-Sheet Formation in Polyglutamine

The role of β-sheets in the early stages of protein aggregation, specifically amyloid formation, remains unclear. Interpretations of kinetic data have led to a specific model for the role of β-sheets in polyglutamine aggregation. According to this model, monomeric polyglutamine, which is intrinsically disordered, goes through a rare conversion into an ordered, metastable, β-sheeted state that nucleates aggregation. It has also been proposed that the probability of forming the critical nucleus, a specific β-sheet conformation for the monomer, increases with increasing chain length. Here, we test this model using molecular simulations. We quantified free energy profiles in terms of β-content for monomeric polyglutamine as a function of chain length. In accord with estimates from experimental data, the free energy penalties for forming β-rich states are in the 10-20 kcal/mol range. However, the length dependence of these free energy penalties does not mirror interpretations of kinetic data. In addition, although homodimerization of disordered molecules is spontaneous, the imposition of conformational restraints on polyglutamine molecules does not enhance the spontaneity of intermolecular associations. Our data lead to the proposal that β-sheet formation is an attribute of peptide-rich phases such as high molecular weight aggregates rather than monomers or oligomers.     

Atomistic simulations of the effects of polyglutamine chain length and solvent quality on conformational equilibria and spontaneous homodimerization

Aggregation of expanded polyglutamine tracts is associated with nine different neurodegenerative diseases, including Huntington's disease. Experiments and computer simulations have demonstrated that monomeric forms of polyglutamine molecules sample heterogeneous sets of collapsed structures in water. The current work focuses on a mechanistic characterization of polyglutamine homodimerization as a function of chain length and temperature. These studies were carried out using molecular simulations based on a recently developed continuum solvation model that was designed for studying conformational and binding equilibria of intrinsically disordered molecules such as polyglutamine systems. The main results are as follows: Polyglutamine molecules form disordered, collapsed globules in aqueous solution. These molecules spontaneously associate at conditions approaching those of typical in vitro experiments for chains of length N ≥ 15. The spontaneity of these homotypic associations increases with increasing chain length and decreases with increasing temperature. Similar and generic driving forces govern both collapse and spontaneous homodimerization of polyglutamine in aqueous milieus. Collapse and dimerization maximize self-interactions and reduce the interface between polyglutamine molecules and the surrounding solvent. Other than these generic considerations, there do not appear to be any specific structural requirements for either chain collapse or chain dimerization; that is, both collapse and dimerization are nonspecific in that disordered globules form disordered dimers. In fact, it is shown that the driving force for intermolecular associations is governed by spontaneous conformational fluctuations within monomeric polyglutamine. These results suggest that polyglutamine aggregation is unlikely to follow a homogeneous nucleation mechanism with the monomer as the critical nucleus. Instead, the results support the formation of disordered, non-β-sheet-like soluble molten oligomers as early intermediates—a proposal that is congruent with recent experimental data.     

Stable Polyglutamine Dimers Can Contain β-Hairpins with Interdigitated Side Chains—But Not α-Helices, β-Nanotubes, β-Pseudohelices,or Steric Zippers

A common thread connecting nine fatal neurodegenerative protein aggregation diseases is an abnormally expanded polyglutamine tract found in the respective proteins. Although the structure of this tract in the large mature aggregates is increasingly well described, its structure in the small early aggregates remains largely unknown. As experimental evidence suggests that the most toxic species along the aggregation pathway are the small early ones, developing strategies to alleviate disease pathology calls for understanding the structure of polyglutamine peptides in the early stages of aggregation. Here, we present a criterion, grounded in available experimental data, that allows for using kinetic stability of dimers to assess whether a given polyglutamine conformer can be on the aggregation path. We then demonstrate that this criterion can be assessed using present-day molecular dynamics simulations. We find that although the α-helical conformer of polyglutamine is very stable, dimers of α-helices lack the kinetic stability necessary to support further oligomerization. Dimers of steric zipper, β-nanotube, and β-pseudohelix conformers are also too short-lived to initiate aggregation. The β-hairpin-containing conformers, instead, invariably form very stable dimers when their side chains are interdigitated. Combining these findings with the implications of recent solid-state NMR data on mature fibrils, we propose a possible pathway for the initial stages of polyglutamine aggregation, in which β-hairpin-containing conformers act as templates for fibril formation.     

Evidence for the existence of a secondary pathway for fibril growth during the aggregation of tau

The mechanism of amyloid fibril formation by proteins has been classically described by the nucleation-dependent polymerization (NDP) model, which makes certain predictions regarding the kinetics of fibrillation. All proteins whose aggregation conforms to the NDP model display a t(2) time dependence for their initial reaction profile. However, there are proteins whose aggregation reactions have kinetic signatures of a flat lag phase followed by an exponential rise in fibril mass, which does not conform to the NDP model. Amyloid fibril formation by tau, a microtubule-associated protein whose aggregation to form neurofibrillary tangles is implicated in Alzheimer's disease and other tauopathies, in the presence of inducers such as heparin and fatty acid micelles, has always been traditionally described by a ligand-induced NDP model. In this study, the existence of a secondary pathway for fibril growth during the aggregation of the functional, repeat domain of tau in the presence of heparin has been established. Both kinetic and accessory evidence are provided for the existence of this pathway, which is shown to augment the primary homogeneous nucleation pathway. From the kinetic data, the main secondary pathway that is operative appears to be fibril fragmentation but other pathways such as branching or secondary nucleation may also be operative.     

Modulation of Polyglutamine Conformations and Dimer Formation by the N-Terminus of Huntingtin

Polyglutamine expansions within different proteins are associated with nine different neurodegenerative diseases. There is growing interest in understanding the roles of flanking sequences from disease-relevant proteins in the intrinsic conformational and aggregation properties of polyglutamine. We report results from atomistic simulations and circular dichroism experiments that quantify the effect of the N-terminal 17-residue (Nt17) segment of the huntingtin protein on polyglutamine conformations and intermolecular interactions. We show that the Nt17 segment and polyglutamine domains become increasingly disordered as polyglutamine length (N) increases in Nt17-Q_N constructs. Hydrophobic groups within Nt17 become sequestered in intramolecular interdomain interfaces. We also show that the Nt17 segment suppresses the intrinsic propensity of polyglutamine aggregation. This inhibition arises from the incipient micellar structures adopted by monomeric forms of the peptides with Nt17 segments. The degree of intermolecular association increases with increasing polyglutamine length and is governed mainly by associations between polyglutamine domains. Comparative analysis of intermolecular associations for different polyglutamine-containing constructs leads to clearer interpretations of recently published experimental data. Our results suggest a framework for fibril formation and identify roles for flanking sequences in the modulation of polyglutamine aggregation.     

A variational model for oligomer-formation process of GNNQQNY peptide from yeast prion protein Sup35

Many human neurodegenerative diseases are associated with the aggregation of insoluble amyloid-like fibrous proteins. However, the processes by which the randomly diffused monomer peptides aggregate into the highly regulated amyloid fibril structures are largely unknown. We proposed a residue-level coarse-grained variational model for the investigation of the aggregation pathway for a small assembly of amyloid proteins, the peptide GNNQQNY from yeast prion protein Sup35. By examining the free energy surface, we identified the residue-level sequential pathways for double parallel and antiparallel β-peptides, which show that the central dry polar zipper structure is the major folding core in both cases. The critical nucleus size is determined to be three peptides for the homogeneous nucleation process, whereas the zig-zag growth pattern appears most favorably for heterogeneous nucleation. Consistent with the dock-and-lock mechanism, the aggregation process of free peptides to the fibril core was found to be highly cooperative. The quantitative validation with the computational simulations and experimental data demonstrated the usefulness of the proposed model in understanding the general mechanism of the amyloid fibril system.     

Reverse engineering an amyloid aggregation pathway with dimensional analysis and scaling

Human islet amyloid polypeptide (hIAPP) is a cytotoxic protein that aggregates into oligomers and fibrils that kill pancreatic β-cells. Here we analyze hIAPP aggregation in vitro, measured via thioflavin-T fluorescence. We use mass-action kinetics and scaling analysis to reconstruct the aggregation pathway, and find that the initiation step requires four hIAPP monomers. After this step, monomers join the nucleus in pairs, until the first stable nucleus (of size approximately 20 monomers) is formed. This nucleus then elongates by successive addition of single monomers. We find that the best-fit of our data is achieved when we include a secondary fibril-dependent nucleation pathway in the reaction scheme. We predict how interventions that change rates of fibril elongation or nucleation rates affect the accumulation of potentially cytotoxic oligomer species. Our results demonstrate the power of scaling analysis in reverse engineering biochemical aggregation pathways.     

Amyloid Protofibrils of Lysozyme Nucleate and Grow Via Oligomer Fusion

The mechanisms linking deposits of insoluble amyloid fibrils to the debilitating neuronal cell death characteristic of neurodegenerative diseases remain enigmatic. Recent findings implicate transiently formed intermediates of mature amyloid fibrils as the principal toxic agent. Hence, determining which intermediate aggregates represent on-pathway precursors or off-pathway side branches is critical for understanding amyloid self-assembly, and for devising therapeutic approaches targeting relevant toxic species. We examined amyloid fibril self-assembly in acidic solutions, using the model protein hen egg-white lysozyme. Combining in situ dynamic light scattering with calibrated atomic-force microscopy, we monitored the nucleation and growth kinetics of multiple transient aggregate species, and characterized both their morphologies and physical dimensions. Upon incubation at elevated temperatures, uniformly sized oligomers formed at a constant rate. After a lag period of several hours, protofibrils spontaneously nucleated. The nucleation kinetics of protofibrils and the tight match of their widths and heights with those of oligomers imply that protofibrils both nucleated and grew via oligomer fusion. After reaching several hundred nanometers in length, protofibrils assembled into mature fibrils. Overall, the amyloid fibril assembly of lysozyme followed a strict hierarchical aggregation pathway, with amyloid monomers, oligomers, and protofibrils forming on-pathway intermediates for assembly into successively more complex structures.     

Self-assembly of Mutant Huntingtin Exon-1 Fragments into Large Complex Fibrillar Structures Involves Nucleated Branching

Huntingtin (HTT) fragments with extended polyglutamine tracts self-assemble into amyloid-like fibrillar aggregates. Elucidating the fibril formation mechanism is critical for understanding Huntington's disease pathology and for developing novel therapeutic strategies. Here, we performed systematic experimental and theoretical studies to examine the self-assembly of an aggregation-prone N-terminal HTT exon-1 fragment with 49 glutamines (Ex1Q49). Using high-resolution imaging techniques such as electron microscopy and atomic force microscopy, we show that Ex1Q49 fragments in cell-free assays spontaneously convert into large, highly complex bundles of amyloid fibrils with multiple ends and fibril branching points. Furthermore, we present experimental evidence that two nucleation mechanisms control spontaneous Ex1Q49 fibrillogenesis: (1) a relatively slow primary fibril-independent nucleation process, which involves the spontaneous formation of aggregation-competent fibrillary structures, and (2) a fast secondary fibril-dependent nucleation process, which involves nucleated branching and promotes the rapid assembly of highly complex fibril bundles with multiple ends. The proposed aggregation mechanism is supported by studies with the small molecule O4, which perturbs early events in the aggregation cascade and delays Ex1Q49 fibril assembly, comprehensive mathematical and computational modeling studies, and seeding experiments with small, preformed fibrillar Ex1Q49 aggregates that promote the assembly of amyloid fibrils. Together, our results suggest that nucleated branching in vitro plays a critical role in the formation of complex fibrillar HTT exon-1 aggregates with multiple ends.     

Biophysical Underpinnings of the Repeat Length Dependence of Polyglutamine Amyloid Formation

There are now 10 expanded CAG repeat diseases in which both disease risk and age of onset are strongly dependent on the repeat length of the polyglutamine (polyQ) sequence in the disease protein. Large, polyQ-rich inclusions in patient brains and in cell and animal models are consistent with the involvement of polyQ aggregation in the disease mechanism. This possibility is reinforced by studies showing strong repeat length dependence to the aggregation process, qualitatively mirroring the repeat length dependence of disease risk. Our understanding of the underlying biophysical principles that mediate the repeat length dependence of aggregation, however, is far from complete. A previous study of simple polyQ peptides showed that N*, the size of the critical nucleus that controls onset of aggregation, decreases from unfavorable tetramer to favorable monomer over the range Q₂₃ to Q₂₆. These data, however, do not explain why, for all peptides exhibiting N* ∼ 1, spontaneous aggregation rates continue to increase with increasing repeat length. Here we describe a novel kinetics analyses that maps out the nonlinear dependence with repeat length of a nucleation efficiency term that is likely related to aspects of nucleus structure. This trend accounts for why nucleus size increases to tetrameric at repeat lengths of Q₂₃ or below. Intriguingly, both aggregation and age of onset trend with repeat length in similar ways, exhibiting large changes per added Gln at low repeat lengths and small changes per added Gln at relatively long repeat lengths. Fibril stability also increases with repeat length in a nonlinear fashion.     

Aggregation kinetics of interrupted polyglutamine peptides

Abnormally expanded polyglutamine domains are associated with at least nine neurodegenerative diseases, including Huntington's disease. Expansion of the glutamine region facilitates aggregation of the impacted protein, and aggregation has been linked to neurotoxicity. Studies of synthetic peptides have contributed substantially to our understanding of the mechanism of aggregation because the underlying biophysics of polyglutamine-mediated association can be probed independent of their context within a larger protein. In this report, interrupting residues were inserted into polyglutamine peptides (Q20), and the impact on conformational and aggregation properties was examined. A peptide with two alanine residues formed laterally aligned fibrillar aggregates that were similar to the uninterrupted Q20 peptide. Insertion of two proline residues resulted in soluble, nonfibrillar aggregates, which did not mature into insoluble aggregates. In contrast, insertion of a β-turn template _DPG rapidly accelerated aggregation and resulted in a fibrillar aggregate morphology with little lateral alignment between fibrils. These results are interpreted to indicate that (a) long-range nonspecific interactions lead to the formation of soluble oligomers, while maturation of oligomers into fibrils requires conformational conversion and (b) that soluble oligomers dynamically interact with each other, while insoluble aggregates are relatively inert. Kinetic analysis revealed that the increase in aggregation caused by the _DPG insert is inconsistent with the nucleation-elongation mechanism of aggregation featuring a monomeric β-sheet nucleus. Rather, the data support a mechanism of polyglutamine aggregation by which monomers associate into soluble oligomers, which then undergo slow structural rearrangement to form sedimentable aggregates.     

Protein Polymerization into Fibrils from the Viewpoint of Nucleation Theory

The assembly of various proteins into fibrillar aggregates is an important phenomenon with wide implications ranging from human disease to nanoscience. Using general kinetic results of nucleation theory, we analyze the polymerization of protein into linear or helical fibrils in the framework of the Oosawa-Kasai (OK) model. We show that while within the original OK model of linear polymerization the process does not involve nucleation, within a modified OK model it is nucleation-mediated. Expressions are derived for the size of the fibril nucleus, the work for fibril formation, the nucleation barrier, the equilibrium and stationary fibril size distributions, and the stationary fibril nucleation rate. Under otherwise equal conditions, this rate decreases considerably when the short (subnucleus) fibrils lose monomers much more frequently than the long (supernucleus) fibrils, a feature that should be born in mind when designing a strategy for stymying or stimulating fibril nucleation. The obtained dependence of the nucleation rate on the concentration of monomeric protein is convenient for experimental verification and for use in rate equations accounting for nucleation-mediated fibril formation. The analysis and the results obtained for linear fibrils are fully applicable to helical fibrils whose formation is describable by a simplified OK model.     

Thermodynamics of Huntingtin Aggregation

Amyloid aggregates are found in many neurodegenerative diseases, including Huntington’s, Alzheimer’s, and prion diseases. The precise role of the aggregates in disease progression has been difficult to elucidate because of the diversity of aggregated states they can adopt. Here, we study the formation of fibrils and oligomers by exon 1 of huntingtin protein. We show that the oligomer states are consistent with polymer micelles that are limited in size by the stretching entropy of the polyglutamine region. The model shows how the sequences flanking the amyloid core modulate aggregation behavior. The N17 region promotes aggregation through weakly attractive interactions, whereas the C38 tail opposes aggregation via steric repulsion. We also show that the energetics of cross-β stacking by polyglutamine would produce fibrils with many alignment defects, but minor perturbations from the flanking sequences are sufficient to reduce the defects to the level observed in experiment. We conclude with a discussion of the implications of this model for other amyloid-forming molecules.     

A Modified Lumry–Eyring Analysis for the Determination of the Predominant Mechanism Underlying the Diminution of Protein Aggregation by Glycerol

Aggregation of aspartate-β-semialdehyde dehydrogenase (ASD) was analyzed by applying modified Lumry–Eyring with nucleated polymerization (LENP) model. Intrinsic nucleation time scales were determined. In absence of glycerol, ASD undergoes concentration and time-dependent polymerization into low-molecular weight soluble aggregates and thereafter condensation into insoluble aggregates. In the presence of increasing solvent glycerol concentration, the aggregation becomes more and more nucleation dominated, with slower polymerization to low-molecular weights soluble aggregates, without any condensation into insoluble aggregates. Effective nucleus size as well as the number of monomers in each irreversible growth event were sensitive to the changes in solvent glycerol concentration. Glycerol-directed diminution of aggregation appears to be largely due to the inhibition of rearrangement (decreased nucleation rearrangement rate coefficient, K _r,x ) because of compaction induced due to preferential hydration, thus, preventing the soluble aggregates from locking into irreversible soluble nuclei. Appreciably decreased K _r,x (as compared to nucleation dissociation constant, K _d,x ), appears to be responsible for increased nucleus size at higher solvent glycerol concentration. This study explains how modified LENP model can be applied to determine the predominant mechanism responsible for the diminution of aggregation by polyhydric alcohols (glycerol).     

Osmolyte controlled fibrillation kinetics of insulin: New insight into fibrillation using the preferential exclusion principle

Amyloid proteins are converted from their native‐fold to long β‐sheet‐rich fibrils in a typical sigmoidal time‐dependent protein aggregation curve. This reaction process from monomer or dimer to oligomer to nuclei and then to fibrils is the subject of intense study. The main results of this work are based on the use of a well‐studied model amyloid protein, insulin, which has been used in vitro by others. Nine osmolyte molecules, added during the protein aggregation process for the production of amyloid fibrils, slow‐down or speed up the process depending on the molecular structure of each osmolyte. Of these, all stabilizing osmolytes (sugars) slow down the aggregation process in the following order: tri > di > monosaccharides, whereas destabilizing osmolytes (urea, guanidium hydrochloride) speed up the aggregation process in a predictable way that fits the trend of all osmolytes. With respect to kinetics, we illustrate, by adapting our earlier reaction model to the insulin system, that the intermediates (trimers, tetramers, pentamers, etc.) are at very low concentrations and that nucleation is orders of magnitude slower than fibril growth. The results are then collated into a cogent explanation using the preferential exclusion and accumulation of osmolytes away from and at the protein surface during nucleation, respectively. Both the heat of solution and the neutral molecular surface area of the osmolytes correlate linearly with two fitting parameters of the kinetic rate model, that is, the lag time and the nucleation rate prior to fibril formation. These kinetic and thermodynamic results support the preferential exclusion model and the existence of oligomers including nuclei and larger structures that could induce toxicity. © 2009 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 2009     

Simultaneous Measurement of Amyloid Fibril Formation by Dynamic Light Scattering and Fluorescence Reveals Complex Aggregation Kinetics

An apparatus that combines dynamic light scattering and Thioflavin T fluorescence detection is used to simultaneously probe fibril formation in polyglutamine peptides, the aggregating subunit associated with Huntington''s disease, in vitro. Huntington''s disease is a neurodegenerative disorder in a class of human pathologies that includes Alzheimer''s and Parkinson''s disease. These pathologies are all related by the propensity of their associated protein or polypeptide to form insoluble, β-sheet rich, amyloid fibrils. Despite the wide range of amino acid sequence in the aggregation prone polypeptides associated with these diseases, the resulting amyloids display strikingly similar physical structure, an observation which suggests a physical basis for amyloid fibril formation. Thioflavin T fluorescence reports β-sheet fibril content while dynamic light scattering measures particle size distributions. The combined techniques allow elucidation of complex aggregation kinetics and are used to reveal multiple stages of amyloid fibril formation.     

Structure-Based Peptide Design to Modulate Amyloid Beta Aggregation and Reduce Cytotoxicity

The deposition of Aβ peptide in the brain is the key event in Alzheimer disease progression. Therefore, the prevention of Aβ self assembly into disease-associated oligomers is a logical strategy for treatment. π stacking is known to provide structural stability to many amyloids; two phenylalanine residues within the Aβ 14–23 self recognition element are in such an arrangement in many solved structures. Therefore, we targeted this structural stacking by substituting these two phenylalanine residues with their D-enantiomers. The resulting peptides were able to modulate Aβ aggregation in vitro and reduce Aβ cytotoxicity in primary neuronal cultures. Using kinetic analysis of fibril formation, electron microscopy and dynamic light scattering characterization of oligomer size distributions, we demonstrate that, in addition to altering fibril structural characteristics, these peptides can induce the formation of larger amorphous aggregates which are protective against toxic oligomers, possibly because they are able to sequester the toxic oligomers during co-incubation. Alternatively, they may alter the surface structure of the oligomers such that they can no longer interact with cells to induce toxic pathways.     

Tracking Mutant Huntingtin Aggregation Kinetics in Cells Reveals Three Major Populations That Include an Invariant Oligomer Pool

Huntington disease is caused by expanded polyglutamine sequences in huntingtin, which procures its aggregation into intracellular inclusion bodies (IBs). Aggregate intermediates, such as soluble oligomers, are predicted to be toxic to cells, yet because of a lack of quantitative methods, the kinetics of aggregation in cells remains poorly understood. We used sedimentation velocity analysis to define and compare the heterogeneity and flux of purified huntingtin with huntingtin expressed in mammalian cells under non-denaturing conditions. Non-pathogenic huntingtin remained as hydrodynamically elongated monomers in vitro and in cells. Purified polyglutamine-expanded pathogenic huntingtin formed elongated monomers (2.4 S) that evolved into a heterogeneous aggregate population of increasing size over time (100–6,000 S). However, in cells, mutant huntingtin formed three major populations: monomers (2.3 S), oligomers (mode s_20,w = 140 S) and IBs (mode s_20,w = 320,000 S). Strikingly, the oligomers did not change in size heterogeneity or in their proportion of total huntingtin over 3 days despite continued monomer conversion to IBs, suggesting that oligomers are rate-limiting intermediates to IB formation. We also determined how a chaperone known to modulate huntingtin toxicity, Hsc70, influences in-cell huntingtin partitioning. Hsc70 decreased the pool of 140 S oligomers but increased the overall flux of monomers to IBs, suggesting that Hsc70 reduces toxicity by facilitating transfer of oligomers into IBs. Together, our data suggest that huntingtin aggregation is streamlined in cells and is consistent with the 140 S oligomers, which remain invariant over time, as a constant source of toxicity to cells irrespective of total load of insoluble aggregates.     

Early events in insulin fibrillization studied by time-lapse atomic force microscopy

The importance of understanding the mechanism of protein aggregation into insoluble amyloid fibrils lies not only in its medical consequences, but also in its more basic properties of self-organization. The discovery that a large number of uncorrelated proteins can form, under proper conditions, structurally similar fibrils has suggested that the underlying mechanism is a general feature of polypeptide chains. In this work, we address the early events preceding amyloid fibril formation in solutions of zinc-free human insulin incubated at low pH and high temperature. Here, we show by time-lapse atomic force microscopy that a steady-state distribution of protein oligomers with a quasiexponential tail is reached within a few minutes after heating. This metastable phase lasts for a few hours, until fibrillar aggregates are observable. Although for such complex systems different aggregation mechanisms can occur simultaneously, our results indicate that the prefibrillar phase is mainly controlled by a simple coagulation-evaporation kinetic mechanism, in which concentration acts as a critical parameter. These experimental facts, along with the kinetic model used, suggest a critical role for thermal concentration fluctuations in the process of fibril nucleation.