Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Pathways to extinction start long before the death of the last individual. However, causes of early stage population declines and the susceptibility of small residual populations to extirpation are typically studied in isolation. Using validated process-explicit models, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the initial decline and later extinction of the woolly mammoth. We show that reconciling ancient DNA data on woolly mammoth population decline with fossil evidence of location and timing of extinction requires process-explicit models with specific demographic and niche constraints, and a constrained synergy of climatic change and human impacts. Validated models needed humans to hasten climate-driven population declines by many millennia, and to allow woolly mammoths to persist in mainland Arctic refugia until the mid-Holocene. Our results show that the role of humans in the extinction dynamics of woolly mammoth began well before the Holocene, exerting lasting effects on the spatial pattern and timing of its range-wide extinction.     

Successful genotyping of microsatellites in the woolly mammoth

Genetic analyses using ancient DNA from Pleistocene and early Holocene fossils have largely relied on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences. Among woolly mammoths, Mammuthus primigenius, mtDNA analyses have identified 2 distinct clades (I and II) that diverged 1-2 Ma. Here, we establish that microsatellite markers can be effective on Pleistocene samples, successfully genotyping woolly mammoth specimens at 2 loci. Although significant differentiation at the 2 microsatellite loci was not detected between 16 clade I and 4 clade II woolly mammoths, our results demonstrate that the nuclear population structure of Pleistocene species can be examined using fast-evolving nuclear microsatellite markers.     

The flickering genes of the last mammoths

Woolly mammoths, Mammuthus primigenius, are arguably the most iconic of the extinct Pleistocene megafauna, and an abundance of large permafrost‐embedded bone and ivory material ( Fig. 1 ) means they were also among the first to yield credible DNA sequences ( Hagelberg et al. 1994 ; Hoss et al. 1994 ). Despite mammoth remains being numerous throughout northern Eurasia and North America, both the earliest and most recent fossils are found in northeast Siberia, with the last known population being confined to Wrangel Island in the Arctic Ocean from around 10,000 years ago until their extinction around 4,000 years ago. The extent to which these Holocene mammoths were descended from the Pleistocene populations of Wrangel Island and the demographic nature of their terminal decline have, until now, remained something of a mystery. In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Nyström et al. (2012) report the first use of autosomal variation to track the decline of the last mammoths and, in doing so, take a significant step towards resolving these questions. The authors genotyped four microsatellite loci in 59 Pleistocene and Holocene mammoths from Wrangel Island and Chukotka in mainland northeastern Siberia and showed that while the Pleistocene‐to‐Holocene transition is associated with a significant reduction in genetic diversity, subsequent levels of variation remain constant until extinction. Such a pattern is somewhat surprising as it indicates that while the last mammoths were confined to only a few Arctic islands, their final extinction on Wrangel Island was not a gradual process resulting from loss of genetic diversity/inbreeding. Instead, it seems they maintained a viable effective population size of around 500 until near their presumably rapid extinction. While the ultimate agent of mammoth extinction remains unknown, the work of Nyström et al. (2012) . suggests that we should be looking for something sudden, like a rapid change in climate/ecology or perhaps the arrival of humans.

Figure 1 Open in figure viewer PowerPoint Sergey Vartanyan during field collection, holding a woolly mammoth tusk found along a river embankment in northeast Siberia (photographer: Diana Solovyeva).     

Complete Columbian mammoth mitogenome suggests interbreeding with woolly mammoths

Background  

Late Pleistocene North America hosted at least two divergent and ecologically distinct species of mammoth: the periglacial woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) and the subglacial Columbian mammoth (Mammuthus columbi). To date, mammoth genetic research has been entirely restricted to woolly mammoths, rendering their genetic evolution difficult to contextualize within broader Pleistocene paleoecology and biogeography. Here, we take an interspecific approach to clarifying mammoth phylogeny by targeting Columbian mammoth remains for mitogenomic sequencing.     

Holarctic genetic structure and range dynamics in the woolly mammoth

Ancient DNA analyses have provided enhanced resolution of population histories in many Pleistocene taxa. However, most studies are spatially restricted, making inference of species-level biogeographic histories difficult. Here, we analyse mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) variation in the woolly mammoth from across its Holarctic range to reconstruct its history over the last 200 thousand years (kyr). We identify a previously undocumented major mtDNA lineage in Europe, which was replaced by another major mtDNA lineage 32–34 kyr before present (BP). Coalescent simulations provide support for demographic expansions at approximately 121 kyr BP, suggesting that the previous interglacial was an important driver for demography and intraspecific genetic divergence. Furthermore, our results suggest an expansion into Eurasia from America around 66 kyr BP, coinciding with the first exposure of the Bering Land Bridge during the Late Pleistocene. Bayesian inference indicates Late Pleistocene demographic stability until 20–15 kyr BP, when a severe population size decline occurred.     

Temporal genetic change in the last remaining population of woolly mammoth

During the Late Pleistocene, the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius) experienced a series of local extinctions generally attributed to human predation or environmental change. Some small and isolated populations did however survive far into the Holocene. Here, we investigated the genetic consequences of the isolation of the last remaining mammoth population on Wrangel Island. We analysed 741 bp of the mitochondrial DNA and found a loss of genetic variation in relation to the isolation event, probably caused by a demographic bottleneck or a founder event. However, in spite of ca 5000 years of isolation, we did not detect any further loss of genetic variation. Together with the relatively high number of mitochondrial haplotypes on Wrangel Island near the final disappearance, this suggests a sudden extinction of a rather stable population.     

Human influence on distribution and extinctions of the late Pleistocene Eurasian megafauna

Late Pleistocene extinctions are of interest to paleontological and anthropological research. In North America and Australia, human occupation occurred during a short period of time and overexploitation may have led to the extinction of mammalian megafauna. In northern Eurasia megafaunal extinctions are believed to have occurred over a relatively longer period of time, perhaps as a result of changing environmental conditions, but the picture is much less clear. To consider megafaunal extinction in Eurasia, we compare differences in the geographical distribution and commonness of extinct and extant species between paleontological and archaeological localities from the late middle Pleistocene to Holocene. Purely paleontological localities, as well as most extinct species, were distributed north of archaeological sites and of the extant species, suggesting that apart from possible differences in adaptations between humans and other species, humans could also have a detrimental effect on large mammal distribution. However, evidence for human overexploitation applies only to the extinct steppe bison Bison priscus. Other human-preferred species survive into the Holocene, including Rangifer tarandus, Equus ferus, Capreolus capreolus, Cervus elaphus, Equus hemionus, Saiga tatarica, and Sus scrofa. Mammuthus primigenius and Megaloceros giganteus were rare in archaeological sites. Carnivores appear little influenced by human presence, although they become rarer in Holocene archaeological sites. Overall, the data are consistent with the conclusion that humans acted as efficient hunters selecting for the most abundant species. Our study supports the idea that the late Pleistocene extinctions were environmentally driven by climatic changes that triggered habitat fragmentation, species range reduction, and population decrease, after which human interference either by direct hunting or via indirect activities probably became critical.     

Out of America: ancient DNA evidence for a new world origin of late quaternary woolly mammoths

Although the iconic mammoth of the Late Pleistocene, the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius), has traditionally been regarded as the end point of a single anagenetically evolving lineage, recent paleontological and molecular studies have shown that successive allopatric speciation events must have occurred within Pleistocene Mammuthus in Asia, with subsequent expansion and hybridization between nominal taxa [1, 2]. However, the role of North American mammoth populations in these events has not been adequately explored from an ancient-DNA standpoint. To undertake this task, we analyzed mtDNA from a large data set consisting of mammoth samples from across Holarctica (n = 160) and representing most of radiocarbon time. Our evidence shows that, during the terminal Pleistocene, haplotypes originating in and characteristic of New World populations replaced or succeeded those endemic to Asia and western Beringia. Also, during the Last Glacial Maximum, mammoth populations do not appear to have suffered an overall decline in diversity, despite differing responses on either side of the Bering land bridge. In summary, the "Out-of-America" hypothesis holds that the dispersal of North American woolly mammoths into other parts of Holarctica created major phylogeographic structuring within Mammuthus primigenius populations, shaping the last phase of their evolutionary history before their demise.     

Complete Mitochondrial Genome and Phylogeny of Pleistocene Mammoth Mammuthus primigenius

Phylogenetic relationships between the extinct woolly mammoth(Mammuthus primigenius), and the Asian(Elephas maximus) and African savanna(Loxodonta africana) elephants remain unresolved. Here, we report the sequence of the complete mitochondrial genome (16,842 base pairs) of a woolly mammoth extracted from permafrost-preserved remains from the Pleistocene epoch—the oldest mitochondrial genome sequence determined to date. We demonstrate that well-preserved mitochondrial genome fragments, as long as ~1,600–1700 base pairs, can be retrieved from pre-Holocene remains of an extinct species. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the Elephantinae clade suggests thatM. primigenius andE. maximus are sister species that diverged soon after their common ancestor split from theL. africana lineage. Low nucleotide diversity found between independently determined mitochondrial genomic sequences of woolly mammoths separated geographically and in time suggests that north-eastern Siberia was occupied by a relatively homogeneous population ofM. primigenius throughout the late Pleistocene.     

Complete Mitochondrial Genome and Phylogeny of Pleistocene MammothMammuthus primigenius

Phylogenetic relationships between the extinct woolly mammoth(Mammuthus primigenius), and the Asian(Elephas maximus) and African savanna(Loxodonta africana) elephants remain unresolved. Here, we report the sequence of the complete mitochondrial genome (16,842 base pairs) of a woolly mammoth extracted from permafrost-preserved remains from the Pleistocene epoch—the oldest mitochondrial genome sequence determined to date. We demonstrate that well-preserved mitochondrial genome fragments, as long as ~1,600–1700 base pairs, can be retrieved from pre-Holocene remains of an extinct species. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the Elephantinae clade suggests thatM. primigenius andE. maximus are sister species that diverged soon after their common ancestor split from theL. africana lineage. Low nucleotide diversity found between independently determined mitochondrial genomic sequences of woolly mammoths separated geographically and in time suggests that north-eastern Siberia was occupied by a relatively homogeneous population ofM. primigenius throughout the late Pleistocene.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

中国真猛犸象和披毛犀化石14C年代研究新进展

真猛犸象（Mammuthus primigenius）和披毛犀（Coelodonta antiquitatis）是北半球高纬度地区晚更新世动物群的主要成员,其消亡的年代和原因一直是国际学术界关注的热点科学问题。本文对黑龙江青冈县英贤村最新出土的5个真猛犸象和5个披毛犀化石进行了AMS¹⁴C年代测定,结果均大于4万年,部分化石可能已经超出了目前¹⁴C的测定范围。通过整理并对比已公开发表的中国境内两种动物化石的¹⁴C年代学数据,本文认为早期常规¹⁴C测年方法所获得的年代值需要重新考虑其准确性。埋藏地层与最新的AMS¹⁴C测年数据显示,我国真猛犸象化石年代主要集中于MIS3阶段;披毛犀在我国消亡的时间很可能晚于真猛犸象,至少延续到末次冰消期。中国猛犸象-披毛犀动物群化石仍然需要开展更多的年代学研究。     

Late Quaternary woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius Blum) remains from southern Transdanubia,Hungary

Six samples of subfossil tusk, bone and tooth remains from the woolly mammoth (Mammuthus primigenius Blum) were discovered in south-western Hungary. The remains are relatively well preserved in a Late Pleistocene loess deposit. The samples have been radiocarbon dated (AMS) and are of Late Weichselian (MIS 2) age (21.8–24.1 ka cal BP). The skull fragments, the tusks and maxillary teeth are in close proximity to associated postcranial remains, indicating that the mammoth died where it was found. The size and characteristics of skeletal elements have allowed us to determine that this was a mature male of about 38 years of age.     

A 21 000 cal years paleoclimatic record from Caçó Lake,northern Brazil: evidence from sedimentary and pollen analyses

Sedimentological studies including seismic profiles, mineralogy and organic geochemistry on two cores from the center and margin of Caçó Lake, Maranhão State, northern Brazil, revealed variable climatic and environmental conditions during the last 21 cal kyr BP. Between 21 and 17 cal kyr BP, during the Late Glacial Maximum, regional climate was predominantly dry, interrupted by short humid phases, as reflected by a succession of very thin layers of sand and organic matter. The Late Pleistocene climate was relatively wet as is suggested by rapid lake-level rise and forest expansion. The Late Pleistocene humid climate differed significantly from present conditions. We suggest that Late Glacial humid conditions were the consequence of intensification of the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone or shifts of its position, resulting in Antarctic cold-front occurrences. The abrupt climatic changes during this period were marked by siderite deposition into Caçó Lake, which appears to be related to regional hydrologic changes linked to global/Northern Hemisphere events. The Holocene was characterized by lower moisture availability and a distinct dry period until 7 cal kyr BP, in response to South American insolation conditions.     

Morphology, taxonomy, and phylogeny of megacerines (Megacerini, Cervidae, Artiodactyla)

Giant deer or megacerines (tribe Megacerini, family Cervidae, order Artiodactyla) dwelt in Eurasia from the Late Miocene to Holocene and in Africa in the Late Pleistocene. Based on comparative morphological data and morphofunctional analysis, morphogenetic and ecogenetic trends in this group are improved. Classification, taxonomy, phylogeny, and geographical and stratigraphical ranges of megacerines are revised.     

Genetic structure and extinction of the woolly mammoth, Mammuthus primigenius

The interval since circa 50 Ka has been a period of significant species extinctions among the large mammal fauna. However, the relative roles of an increasing human presence and a synchronous series of complex environmental changes in these extinctions have yet to be fully resolved. Recent analyses of fossil material from Beringia have clarified our understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern of Late Pleistocene extinctions, identifying periods of population turnover well before the last glacial maximum (LGM: circa 21 Ka) or subsequent human expansion. To examine the role of pre-LGM population changes in shaping the genetic structure of an extinct species, we analyzed the mitochondrial DNA of woolly mammoths in western Beringia and across its range. We identify genetic signatures of a range expansion of mammoths, from eastern to western Beringia, after the last interglacial (circa 125 Ka), and then an extended period during which demographic inference indicates no population-size increase. The most marked change in diversity at this time is the loss of one of two major mitochondrial lineages.     

Microsatellite genotyping reveals end-Pleistocene decline in mammoth autosomal genetic variation

The last glaciation was a dynamic period with strong impact on the demography of many species and populations. In recent years, mitochondrial DNA sequences retrieved from radiocarbon-dated remains have provided novel insights into the history of Late Pleistocene populations. However, genotyping of loci from the nuclear genome may provide enhanced resolution of population-level changes. Here, we use four autosomal microsatellite DNA markers to investigate the demographic history of woolly mammoths (Mammuthus primigenius) in north-eastern Siberia from before 60 000 years ago up until the species' final disappearance c.4000 years ago. We identified two genetic groups, implying a marked temporal genetic differentiation between samples with radiocarbon ages older than 12 thousand radiocarbon years before present (ka) and those younger than 9ka. Simulation-based analysis indicates that this dramatic change in genetic composition, which included a decrease in individual heterozygosity of approximately 30%, was due to a multifold reduction in effective population size. A corresponding reduction in genetic variation was also detected in the mitochondrial DNA, where about 65% of the diversity was lost. We observed no further loss in genetic variation during the Holocene, which suggests a rapid final extinction event.     

SHORT COMMUNICATION: A phantom extinction? New insights into extinction dynamics of the Don‐hare Lepus tanaiticus

The Pleistocene to Holocene transition was accompanied by a worldwide extinction event affecting numerous mammalian species. Several species such as the woolly mammoth and the giant deer survived this extinction wave, only to go extinct a few thousand years later during the Holocene. Another example for such a Holocene extinction is the Don‐hare, Lepus tanaiticus, which inhabited the Russian plains during the late glacial. After being slowly replaced by the extant mountain hare (Lepus timidus), it eventually went extinct during the middle Holocene. Here, we report the phylogenetic relationship of L. tanaiticus and L. timidus based on a 339‐basepair (bp) fragment of the mitochondrial D‐loop. Phylogenetic tree‐ and network reconstructions do not support L. tanaiticus and L. timidus being different species. Rather, we suggest that the two taxa represent different morphotypes of a single species and the extinction of ‘L. tanaiticus’ represents the disappearance of a local morphotype rather than the extinction of a species.     

Complete Mitochondrial Genome and Phylogeny of Pleistocene MammothMammuthus primigenius

Phylogenetic relationships between the extinct woolly mammoth(Mammuthus primigenius), and the Asian(Elephas maximus) and African savanna(Loxodonta africana) elephants remain unresolved. Here, we report the sequence of the complete mitochondrial genome (16,842 base pairs) of a woolly mammoth extracted from permafrost-preserved remains from the Pleistocene epoch—the oldest mitochondrial genome sequence determined to date. We demonstrate that well-preserved mitochondrial genome fragments, as long as ~1,600–1700 base pairs, can be retrieved from pre-Holocene remains of an extinct species. Phylogenetic reconstruction of the Elephantinae clade suggests thatM. primigenius andE. maximus are sister species that diverged soon after their common ancestor split from theL. africana lineage. Low nucleotide diversity found between independently determined mitochondrial genomic sequences of woolly mammoths separated geographically and in time suggests that north-eastern Siberia was occupied by a relatively homogeneous population ofM. primigenius throughout the late Pleistocene.     

Holocene paleoclimate change in the Antarctic Peninsula: evidence from the diatom,sedimentary and geochemical record

Holocene, marine deposition in Lallemand Fjord, Antarctic Peninsula, is reinterpreted using statistical analyses (cluster analysis, analysis of variance, nonmetric multidimensional scaling and multiple regression) to compare diatom assemblages and the primary sedimentological proxies. The assemblages have been deposited in a variable sea ice zone over the last ca. 10,500 yr BP in response to a climate change. In the Late Pleistocene/early Holocene (10,580–7890 yr BP), a sea ice diatom assemblage was deposited in the presence of a retreating ice shelf at the head of the fjord. In the mid Holocene (7890–3850 yr BP), an open water assemblage was deposited and sea ice cover was at a minimum. We associate the assemblage with climatic warming, which characterizes much of the Antarctic Peninsula during this time. A second sea ice assemblage, different from that deposited in the early Holocene, has been deposited in Lallemand Fjord since the late Holocene (<3850 yr BP). The assemblage reflects Neoglacial cooling, an increase in sea ice extent and/or an advance of the Müller Ice Shelf.