Ecological and historical factors affecting distribution pattern and richness of endemic plant species: the case of the Maritime and Ligurian Alps hotspot

The aim of this study was to test a method to locate all the foci, centres, and areas of endemism in a biodiversity hotspot in order to understand the influence of ecological and historical factors on the distribution pattern and to identify priority areas for future conservation projects. The study area was the Maritime and Ligurian Alps hotspot.
Analyses were performed on the presence/absence matrix of 36 vascular plant taxa endemic to the study area. For each operational geographical unit, the number of endemic taxa present was counted. Additionally, the weighted endemism value was calculated. Areas of endemism were distinguished using cluster analysis and parsimony analysis of endemicity. The influence of ecological characteristics and historical factors was evaluated using Multi-Response Permutation Procedure and the Nonparametric Multiplicative Regression. The Indicator Species Analysis (INDVAL) method was used to identify the species characterizing the areas of endemism. Our results show the importance and location of four main areas of endemism within the Maritime and Ligurian Alps and explain the distribution pattern of endemic plants. These areas are easily interpreted by historical and ecological factors, and INDVAL indicates which taxa took part in the history of each endemism area.     

Vicariance and endemism in a Neotropical savanna hotspot: distribution patterns of Cerrado squamate reptiles

Aim To test predictions of the vicariance model, to define basic biogeographical units for Cerrado squamates, and to discuss previous biogeographical hypotheses. Location Cerrado; South American savannas south of the Amazon, extending across central Brazil, with marginal areas in Bolivia and Paraguay and isolated relictual enclaves in adjacent regions. Methods We compiled species occurrence records via field sampling and revision of museum specimens and taxonomic literature. All species were mapped according to georeferenced locality records, and classified as (1) endemic or non‐endemic, (2) typical of plateaus or depressions, and (3) typical of open or forested habitats. We tested predictions of the vicariance model using biotic element analysis, searching for non‐random clusters of species ranges. Spatial congruence of biotic elements was compared with putative areas of endemism revealed by sympatric restricted‐range species. Effects of topographical and vegetational mosaics on distribution patterns were studied according to species composition in biotic elements and areas of endemism. Results We recorded 267 Cerrado squamates, of which 103 (39%) are endemics, including 20 amphisbaenians (61% endemism), 32 lizards (42%) and 51 snakes (32%). Distribution patterns corroborated predictions of the vicariance model, revealing groups of species with significantly clustered ranges. An analysis of endemic species recovered seven biotic elements, corroborating results including non‐endemics. Sympatric restricted‐range taxa delimited 10 putative areas of endemism, largely coincident with core areas of biotic elements detected with endemic taxa. Distribution patterns were associated with major topographical and vegetational divisions of the Cerrado. Endemism prevailed in open, elevated plateaus, whereas faunal interchange, mostly associated with forest habitats, was more common in peripheral depressions. Main conclusions Our results indicate that vicariant speciation has strongly shaped Cerrado squamate diversity, in contrast to earlier studies emphasizing faunal interchange and low endemism in the Cerrado vertebrate fauna. Levels of squamate endemism are higher than in any other Cerrado vertebrate group. The high number of recovered endemics revealed previously undetected areas of evolutionary relevance, indicating that biogeographical patterns in the Cerrado were poorly represented in previous analyses. Although still largely undocumented, effects of vicariant speciation may be prevalent in a large fraction of Cerrado and Neotropical biodiversity.     

Humans and other animals and the plants they ingest

Primula allionii is endemic to a tiny area of the Maritime Alps and has one of the narrowest distribution ranges in this hotspot of biodiversity. Phylogeographical patterns in P. allionii were studied using plastid DNA markers and dominantly inherited markers (AFLP and ISSR) to verify any admixture between P. allionii and the sympatric P. marginata and to detect the phylogeographical history of the species. Morphometric measurements of flowers and admixture analysis support the hypothesis that hybridization occurs in nature. Species distribution models using two climate models (CCSM and MIROC) suggested a reduction in habitat suitability during cold periods. Phylogeographical analysis suggested an old allopatric divergence during the mid‐Pleistocene transition (about 0.8 Mya) without recolonization/contraction cycles. The Alps watershed does not act as a strong barrier between the two main areas of the distribution range, and moderate gene flow by pollen seems to create the admixture recorded among the stands. According to our results, the persistence of P. allionii throughout the Ice Age appears to be linked to the capacity of the Maritime Alps to provide a wide diversity of microhabitats consistent with the recent biogeographical pattern proposed for the Mediterranean Basin. © 2013 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2013, 173 , 637–653.     

Distribution patterns and biogeographic analysis of Austral Polychaeta (Annelida)

Aim We investigate the biogeography of Austral Polychaeta (Annelida) using members of the families Eunicidae, Lumbrineridae, Oenonidae, Onuphidae, Serpulidae and Spionidae and Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity (PAE). We determine whether observed polychaete distribution patterns correspond to traditional shallow-water marine areas of endemism, estimate patterns of endemism and relationships between areas of endemism, and infer the biological processes that have caused these patterns. Location The study is concerned with extant polychaete taxa occupying shallow-water areas derived from the breakup of the Gondwana landmass (i.e. Austral areas). Methods Similarity was assessed using a significance test with Jaccard's indices. Areas not significantly different at 0.99 were combined prior to the PAE. Widespread species and genera (155 taxa) were scored for presence/absence for each area of endemism. PAE was used to derive hypotheses of area relationships. Hierarchical patterns in the PAE trees were identified by testing for congruence with patterns derived from cladistic biogeographic studies of other Gondwanan taxa and with geological evidence. Results The polychaete faunas of four area-pairs were not significantly different and the areas amalgamated: South-west Africa and South Africa, New Zealand South Island and Chatham Islands, Macquarie Island and Antipodean Islands, and West Antarctica and South Georgia. Areas with the highest levels of species endemism were southern Australia (67.0%), South-east South America (53.2%) and South Africa (40.4%). About 60% of species and 7.5% of genera occupied a single area of endemism. The remainder were informative in the PAE. Under a no long-distance dispersal assumption a single minimal-length PAE tree resulted (l=367; ci=0.42); under dispersal allowed, three minimal-length trees resulted (l=278; ci=0.56). In relation to the sister grouping of the New Zealand areas and Australia we find congruence between our minimal-length trees and those derived from a biogeographic study of land plants, and with area relationships predicted by the Expanding Earth Model. Main conclusions The polychaete distribution patterns in this study differ slightly from the classical areas of endemism, most notably in being broader, thereby bringing into question the value of using single provincial system for marine biogeographic studies. The Greater New Zealand region is found to be ‘monophyletic’ with respect to polychaetes, that is comprising a genuine biogeographical entity, and most closely related to the polychaete fauna of southern Australia. This finding is consistent with studies of land plants and with the Expanding Earth model, but disagrees with conventional geology and biogeographic hypothesis involving a ‘polyphyletic’ New Zealand. Both vicariance and concerted range expansion (=biotic dispersion) appear to have played important roles in shaping present-day distribution patterns of Austral polychaetes. Shallow-water ridge systems between the Australian and Greater New Zealand continental landmasses during the Tertiary are thought to have facilitated biotic dispersion.     

一种改进的PAE方法及其在锦鸡儿组(锦鸡儿属)特有性分析中的应用

针对特有性简约性分析（PAE）不足之处,提出一个新的改进分析方法。主要区别是,新方法对分布区内分类群区分了原始和演化,相应地编码为0／1;为了获取分类群原始和演化的特性,分析以分类群分支图为基础。新方法是系统发育与地理分布相统一原理的一个具体的定量化探讨。用新方法分析了豆科锦鸡儿属锦鸡儿组15种,结果表明新方法优于以前的PAE方法。用新的改进方法分析得到的可能的祖先分布区是原始类群树锦鸡儿和一大类属内原始类群的分布区。与目前属的起源问题的一般观点相一致。     

Levels of endemism are not necessarily biased by the co-presence of species with different range sizes: a case study of Vilenkin and Chikatunov's models

Aim  To illustrate problems in the methods proposed by B. Vilenkin and V. Chikatunov to study levels of endemism and species–area relationships.
Location  The study used data on the distribution of tenebrionid beetles (Coleoptera, Tenebrionidae) on the Aegean Islands (Greece).
Methods  A total of 32 islands and 170 taxa (species and subspecies) were included in this study. Levels of endemism were evaluated both as the proportion of endemic taxa, and according to the methods proposed by Vilenkin and Chikatunov, which are based on the number of non-endemic taxa and various relationships with area. A model of the species–area relationship proposed by these authors was also analysed.
Results  The number of endemic taxa was positively correlated with the number of taxa with different distribution types, but this positive correlation did not influence the estimation of the level of endemism. In fact, the commonly used estimate of endemicity as a percentage was strongly correlated with the endemism values calculated according to the method of Vilenkin and Chikatunov. The usual power function fitted the species–area relationship as well as the most complicated method of Vilenkin and Chikatunov.
Main conclusions  As hypothesized by Vilenkin and Chikatunov, the number of endemic taxa was influenced both by the number of taxa of other biogeographical ranks, and by an island's area. However, explanations for the positive relationship between the number of endemic taxa and taxa of different biogeographical ranks are equivocal. Importantly, this relationship did not necessarily influence the level of endemism, which could be expressed adequately by percentages. The method proposed by Vilenkin and Chikatunov to estimate the species–area relationship cannot be clearly justified on theoretical grounds and is of questionable practical utility.     

Parsimony analysis of endemicity describes but does not explain: an illustrated critique

Aim To demonstrate that parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) is not analogous to a cladistic biogeographical analysis. Location We used six data sets from previously published studies from around the world. Methods In order to test the efficiency of PAE in recovering historical relationships among areas, we performed an empirical comparison of nodes recovered with PAE, primary Brooks parsimony analysis (BPA), and an event‐based method using three models (maximum codivergence, reconciled trees, and the default model of the treefitter program) for six data sets. We measured the performance of PAE in recovering historical area relationships by counting the number and examining the content of nodes recovered by PAE and by historical methods. The dispersal/vicariance ratio was calculated to assess the prevalence of dispersal or vicariance in each reconstruction and its relationship to the performance of PAE. Results Our results show that PAE recovers an average of 17.25% of historical nodes. PAE and BPA tend to provide similar results; however, in relation to the event‐based models, PAE performance was poor under all the tested scenarios. Although in some cases PAE reconstructions are more resolved than historical reconstructions, this does not necessarily mean that PAE produces more informative answers. These additional nodes correspond to unsupported statements that are based solely on the distributional data of taxa and not on their phylogenetic history. In other words, these nodes were not found by the historical methods, which take phylogenetics into account. The number of historical nodes recovered using PAE was in general negatively correlated with the dispersal/vicariance ratio. Main conclusions Our results show that PAE is unable to recover historical patterns and therefore does not fit into the current paradigm of historical biogeography. These findings raise doubts regarding conclusions derived from biogeographical studies that interpret PAE trees as area cladograms. We acknowledge that PAE aims to describe but does not explain the current distribution of organisms. It is therefore a useful tool in other biogeographical or ecological analyses for exploring the distribution of taxa or for establishing hypotheses of primary homology between areas.     

Input data, analytical methods and biogeography of Elegia (Restionaceae)

Aim The aim of this paper is to determine the optimal methods for delimiting areas of endemism for Elegia L. (Restionaceae), an endemic genus of the Cape Floristic Region. We assess two methods of scoring the data (presence–absence in regular grids, or in irregular eco‐geographical regions) and three methods for locating biogeographical centres or areas of endemism, and evaluate one method for locating biotic elements. Location The Cape Floristic Region (CFR), South Africa. Methods The distribution of all 48 species of Elegia was mapped as presence–absence data on a quarter‐degree grid and on broad habitat units (eco‐geographical areas). Three methods to delimit areas of endemism were applied: parsimony analysis of endemism (PAE), phenetic cluster analysis, and NDM (‘end em ism’). In addition, we used presence–absence clustering (‘Prabclus’) to delimit biotic elements. The performances of these methods in elucidating the geographical patterns in Elegia were compared, for both types of input data, by evaluating their efficacy in maximizing the proportion of endemics and the number of areas of endemism. Results Eco‐geographical areas perform better than quarter‐degree grids. The eco‐geographical areas are potentially more likely to track the distribution of species. The phenetic approach performed best in terms of its ability to delimit areas of endemism in the study area. The species richness and the richness of range‐restricted species are each highest in the south‐western part of the CFR, decreasing to the north and east. The phytogeographical centres identified in the present study are the northern mountains, the southern mountains (inclusive of the Riviersonderend Mountains and the Cape Peninsula), the Langeberg range, the south coast, the Cape flats, and the west coast. Main conclusions This study demonstrates that (1) eco‐geographical areas should be preferred over a grid overlay in the study of biogeographical patterns, (2) phenetic clustering is the most suitable analytical method for finding areas of endemism, and (3) delimiting biotic elements does not contribute to an understanding of the biogeographical pattern in Elegia. The areas of endemism in Elegia are largely similar to those described in other studies, but there are many detailed differences.     

PACT: an efficient and powerful algorithm for generating area cladograms

Aim To introduce and describe the functioning of a new algorithm, phylogenetic analysis for comparing trees (PACT), for generating area cladograms that provide accurate representation of information contained in taxon–area cladograms. Methods PACT operates in the following steps. Convert all phylogenies to taxon–area cladograms. Convert all taxon–area cladograms to Venn diagrams. Choose any taxon–area cladogram from the set of taxon–area cladograms to be analysed and determine its elements. This will be the template area cladogram. Select a second taxon–area cladogram. Determine its elements. Document which elements in the second tree occur in the template tree (denoted by ‘Y’) and which do not (denoted by ‘N’). Each ‘Y’ indicates a match with previous pattern and these are combined. Each ‘N’ is a new element and is attached to the template area cladogram at the node where it is linked with a Y. This requires two rules: (1) ‘Y + Y = Y’ (combine common elements) as long as they are connected at the same node; and (2) ‘Y + N = YN’ (add novel elements to the template area cladogram at the node where they first appear). Once the novel elements in the second taxon–area cladogram have been added to the template area cladogram, see if any of them can be further combined. This requires three additional rules: (1) ‘Y(Y? = Y(Y?’ (do not combine Y's if they are attached at different nodes on the template area cladogram); (2) ‘Y + YN = YN’ (Y is part of group YN); and (3) ‘YN + YN = YNN’ (Y is the same for each, but each N is different). Repeat for all available taxon–area cladograms. Results Three exemplars demonstrate that PACT provides the most accurate area cladograms for vicariance‐driven biotic diversification, dispersal‐driven biotic diversification and taxon pulse‐driven biotic diversification. PACT can also be used as an a priori method of biogeographical analysis. Main conclusions PACT embodies all the strong points and none of the weaknesses of previously proposed methods of historical biogeography. It is most useful as an a posteriori method, but it is also superior to all previous a priori methods because it does not specify costs, or weights or probabilities, or likelihoods of particular biogeographical processes a priori and is thus sensitive to clade‐specific historical contingencies.     

Phytogeographic analysis of taxa endemic to the Yucatán Peninsula using geographic information systems, the domain heuristic method and parsimony analysis of endemicity

Abstract. The distribution of plant taxa endemic to the Yucatán Peninsula was studied using Parsimony Analysis of Endemicity (PAE). The known distribution of 162 endemic plant taxa was plotted and the DOMAIN method together with environmental data were used to model the potential distribution for each taxon. The Peninsula was divided into a grid of quarter‐degree cells for the purpose of identifying distribution patterns. A total of 294 cells were analysed using known collection records and potential distribution of endemic taxa data. Two data matrices were constructed, a matrix of known distribution and a matrix of both the known and potential distribution. The two matrices were included in the PAE to identify areas of endemism. The areas determined with the known distribution were restricted and almost half of them remained unresolved, whereas with the potential distribution, approximately 90% of the cells were assigned to any one of the endemicity areas. Four endemism areas were identified: the Yucatán dry zone, Yucatán, El Petén and Belize. The areas of Yucatán and El Petén could be explained by current and Pleistocene climatic conditions and their congruence with other biological groups. Analysis of the potential distribution identified areas with patterns that share current environmental characteristics and a palaeoclimate history. Potential distribution modelling can eliminate uncertainties in biogeographical analysis caused by lack of data distribution and sample variation and produce information about the relationships between areas and taxa as well as the environmental affinities of taxa.     

Ecogeographic and genetic evaluation of endemic species in the Maritime Alps: the case of Moehringia lebrunii and M. sedoides (Caryophyllaceae)

Abstract

The Maritime Alps are one of the ‘hot spots’ in the Mediterranean basin. This study investigated two endemic plants, Moehringia lebrunii and Moehringia sedoides (Caryophyllaceae) in order to increase knowledge of the vegetation of this region, and to investigate possible conservation strategies. Ecogeographic surveys and molecular analyses were undertaken. Gene diversity, the Shannon index and G_ST were calculated within and among populations of the two species based on ISSR data. The populations of M. lebrunii had a density ranging between 0.04 and 0.86 individual/m² and a rather low inner genetic variability value. According to IUCN Red List Criteria, the current status of M. lebrunii is Endangered [EN B2ab(ii, iv)]. M. sedoides is an endemic of the SW Alps (not exclusive of the Maritime Alps), and is very abundant within the core of the range. Its range of occurrence is smaller than previously reported; nevertheless, the species is not under threat. This taxon showed a population density ranging between 0.03 and 0.58 individual/m². Genetic variability values revealed a high variation among the species. Only peripheral populations seemed to suffer from their segregated position. Thus, M. sedoides is to be considered Critically Endangered [CR B1ab(i, ii, iii, iv) + 2ab(i, ii, iii, iv)] for Italy according to Regional Guidelines.     

Distribution patterns of the genus Pacifigorgia (Octocorallia: Gorgoniidae): track compatibility analysis and parsimony analysis of endemicity

Aim We analysed the distribution patterns of the eastern Pacific octocoral genus Pacifigorgia and deduced its ancestral distribution to determine why Pacifigorgia is absent from the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean of central America, and the Antilles. We also examined the current patterns of endemism for Pacifigorgia to look for congruence between hot spots of endemism in the genus and generally recognized areas of endemism for the eastern Pacific. Location The tropical eastern Pacific and western Atlantic, America. Methods We used track compatibility analysis (TCA) and parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) to derive ancestral distribution patterns and hot spots of endemism, respectively. Distributional data for Pacifigorgia were gathered from several museum collections and from fieldwork, particularly in the Pacific of Costa Rica and Panama. Results A single generalized track joined the three main continental eastern Pacific biogeographical provinces and the western Atlantic. This track can be included within a larger eastern Atlantic–eastern Pacific transoceanic track that may be the oldest transoceanic track occurring in the region. PAE results designate previously recognized eastern Pacific biogeographical provinces as Pacifigorgia hot spots of endemism. The number of endemic species, which for other taxonomic groups is similar among the eastern Pacific provinces, is higher in the Panamic province for Pacifigorgia. Main conclusions We propose that the absence of Pacifigorgia from the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean of central America, and the Antilles is the result of an ancient absence of the genus from these areas rather than the consequence of a major, recent, extinction episode. The Cortez province and the Mexican province appear together as a result of either non‐response to vicariance or dispersal across the Sinaloan Gap. We posit that the Central American Gap acts as a barrier that separates the Panamic province from the northern Cortez–Mexican province.     

A protocol for the delimitation of areas of endemism and the historical regionalization of the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest using harvestmen distribution data

The concept of areas of endemism (AoEs) has rarely been discussed in the literature, even though the use of methods to ascertain them has recently increased. We introduce a grid‐based protocol for delimiting AoEs using alternative criteria for the recognition of AoEs that are empirically tested with harvestmen species distributions in the Atlantic Rain Forest. Our data, comprising 778 records of 123 species, were analysed using parsimony analysis of endemicity and endemicity analysis on four different grids (two cell sizes and two cell placements). Additionally, we employed six qualitative combined criteria for the delimitation of AoEs and applied them to the results of the numerical analyses in a new protocol to objectively delimit AoEs. Twelve AoEs (the most detailed delimitation of the Atlantic Rain Forest so far) were delimited, partially corroborating the main divisions previously established in the literature. The results obtained with the grid‐based methods were contradictory and were plagued by artefacts, probably due to the existence of different endemism patterns in one cell or to a biogeographical barrier set obliquely to latitudinal and longitudinal axes, for example. Consequently, the congruence patterns found by them should not be considered alone; qualitative characteristics of species and clade distributions and abiotic factors should be evaluated together. Mountain slopes are the main regions of endemism, and large river valleys are the main divisions. Refuges, marine transgressions and tectonic activity seem to have played an important role in the evolution of the Atlantic Rain Forest.     

Areas of endemism and patterns of diversity for aphids of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas

Aim  The study aimed to identify areas of endemism for aphids in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and the Himalayas (QTPH), and to test congruence between patterns of endemism and patterns of overall species richness identified in a previous study.
Location  The QTPH.
Methods  A distribution data base of 326 endemic aphids in the QTPH was compiled. The study area was divided into a grid of 2°× 2° operative geographical units. Parsimony analysis of endemicity (PAE) was used to identify areas of endemism, and the diversity patterns of endemic species were then mapped using GIS.
Results  We identified 326 endemic species belonging to 138 genera within Adelgidae and 14 subfamilies of Aphididae. Five areas of endemism were found using PAE analysis: the eastern Himalayas, the western Himalayas, north-western Yunnan, southern Tibet and the eastern QTPH. Maps of patterns of endemism identified four major centres for endemic aphids, namely the western Himalayas, the eastern Himalayas (or Sikkim-Assam Himalayas), north-western Hengduan Mountains and the mountains of southern Gansu Province, and three minor centres, southern Tibet, south-eastern Tibet and the eastern Qinghai Province in the north-eastern QTPH.
Main conclusions  Our study identifies major centres of aphid endemism. Furthermore, there is a noticeable congruence between patterns of endemism and patterns of species richness. The patterns of endemism were most likely influenced by the recent uplift of the QTPH.     

Gauging the effects of sampling failure in biogeographical analysis

Aim Various methods are employed to recover patterns of area relationships in extinct and extant clades. The fidelity of these patterns can be adversely affected by sampling error in the form of missing data. Here we use simulation studies to evaluate the sensitivity of an analytical biogeographical method, namely tree reconciliation analysis (TRA), to this form of sampling failure. Location Simulation study. Methods To approximate varying degrees of taxonomic sampling failure within phylogenies varying in size and in redundancy of biogeographical signal, we applied sequential pruning protocols to artificial taxon–area cladograms displaying congruent patterns of area relationships. Initial trials assumed equal probability of sampling failure among all areas. Additional trials assigned weighted probabilities to each of the areas in order to explore the effects of uneven geographical sampling. Pruned taxon–area cladograms were then analysed with TRA to determine if the optimal area cladograms recovered match the original biogeographical signal, or if they represent false, ambiguous or uninformative signals. Results The results indicate a period of consistently accurate recovery of the true biogeographical signal, followed by a nonlinear decrease in signal recovery as more taxa are pruned. At high levels of sampling failure, false biogeographical signals are more likely to be recovered than the true signal. However, randomization testing for statistical significance greatly decreases the chance of accepting false signals. The primary inflection of the signal recovery curve, and its steepness and slope depend upon taxon–area cladogram size and area redundancy, as well as on the evenness of sampling. Uneven sampling across geographical areas is found to have serious deleterious effects on TRA, with the accuracy of recovery of biogeographical signal varying by an order of magnitude or more across different sampling regimes. Main conclusions These simulations reiterate the importance of taxon sampling in biogeographical analysis, and attest to the importance of considering geographical, as well as overall, sampling failure when interpreting the robustness of biogeographical signals. In addition to randomization testing for significance, we suggest the use of randomized sequential taxon deletions and the construction of signal decay curves as a means to assess the robustness of biogeographical signals for empirical data sets.     

Distribution range and ecological niche of Primula marginata Curtis (Primulaceae)

The distribution range of Primula marginata Curtis (Primulaceae) has never been fully characterized. In the present study, authors did a revision of the distribution range using herbaria material, database records and in situ populations' check-up. P. marginata was confirmed extending from Cottian to Maritime and Ligurian Alps, with few outlier occurrences in the northern Apennines. The localities previously reported from northern Piedmont (Val d'Ossola) were not confirmed. Maximum entropy model (Maxent) was used to simulate the potential distribution of P. marginata under current climate conditions. According to the distribution modelling performed, the species prefers rocky calcareous habitats mainly at high elevations, with abundant precipitation, but low moisture retention at soil level and marked temperature range between winter and summer seasons. The potential distribution area drawn by Maxent seemed to describe P. marginata at its maximum extension, and any future climate changes might cause limitations for the survival of the species.     

Biotic element analysis in biogeography

Biotic element analysis is an alternative to the areas-of-endemism approach for recognizing the presence or absence of vicariance events in a given region. If an ancestral biota was fragmented by vicariance events, biotic elements or clusters of distribution areas should emerge. We propose a statistical test for clustering of distribution areas based on a Monte Carlo simulation with a null model that considers the spatial autocorrelation in the data. The hypothesis tested is that the observed degree of clustering of ranges can be explained by the range size distribution, the varying number of taxa per cell, and the spatial autocorrelation of the occurrences of a taxon alone. A method for the delimitation of biotic elements which uses model-based Gaussian clustering is introduced. We demonstrate our methods and show the importance of grid size by means of a case study, an analysis of the distribution patterns of southern African species of the weevil genus Scobius. The example highlights the difficulties in delimiting areas of endemism if dispersal has occurred and illustrates the advantages of the biotic element approach.