Determinants of Mortality and Loss to Follow-Up among Adults Enrolled in HIV Care Services in Rwanda

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves morbidity and mortality in patients with HIV, however high rates of loss to follow-up (LTF) and mortality have been documented in HIV care and treatment programs.

Methods

We analyzed routinely-collected data on HIV-infected patients ≥15 years enrolled at 41 healthcare facilities in Rwanda from 2005 to 2010. LTF was defined as not attending clinic in the last 12 months for pre-ART patients and 6 months for ART patients. For the pre-ART period, sub-distribution hazards models were constructed to estimate LTF and death to account for competing risks. Kaplan-Meier (KM) and Cox proportional hazards models were used for patients on ART.

Results

31,033 ART-naïve adults were included, 64% were female and 75% were WHO stage I or II at enrollment. 17,569 (56%) patients initiated ART. Pre-ART competing risk estimates of LTF at 2 years was 11.2% (95%CI, 10.9–11.6%) and 2.9% for death (95%CI 2.7–3.1%). Among pre-ART patients, male gender was associated with higher LTF (adjusted sub-hazard ratio (aSHR) 1.3, 95%CI 1.1–1.5) and death (aSHR 1.7, 95%CI 1.4–2.1). Low CD4 count (CD4<100 vs. ≥350 aSHR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1–0.3) and higher WHO stage (WHO stage IV vs. stage I aSHR 0.4, 95%CI 0.2–0.6) were protective against pre-ART LTF. KM estimates for LTF and death in ART patients at 2 years were 4.4% (95%CI 4.4–4.5%) and 6.3% (95%CI 6.2–6.4%). In patients on ART, male gender was associated with LTF (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.4, 95%CI 1.2–1.7) and death (AHR1.3, 95%CI 1.2–1.5). Mortality was higher for ART patients ≥40 years and in those with lower CD4 count at ART initiation.

Conclusions

Low rates of LTF and death were founds among pre-ART and ART patients in Rwanda but greater efforts are needed to retain patients in care prior to ART initiation, particularly among those who are healthy at enrollment.     

Incidence and Predictors of First Line Antiretroviral Regimen Modification in Western Kenya

Background

Limited antiretroviral treatment regimens in resource-limited settings require long-term sustainability of patients on the few available options. We evaluated the incidence and predictors of combined antiretroviral treatment (cART) modifications, in an outpatient cohort of 955 patients who initiated cART between January 2009 and January 2011 in western Kenya.

Methods

cART modification was defined as either first time single drug substitution or switch. Incidence rates were determined by Poisson regression and risk factor analysis assessed using multivariate Cox regression modeling.

Results

Over a median follow-up period of 10.7 months, 178 (18.7%) patients modified regimens (incidence rate (IR); 18.6 per 100 person years [95% CI: 16.2–21.8]). Toxicity was the most common cited reason (66.3%). In adjusted multivariate Cox piecewise regression model, WHO disease stage III/IV (aHR; 1.82, 95%CI: 1.25–2.66), stavudine (d4T) use (aHR; 2.21 95%CI: 1.49–3.30) and increase in age (aHR; 1.02, 95%CI: 1.0–1.04) were associated with increased risk of treatment modification within the first year post-cART. Zidovudine (AZT) and tenofovir (TDF) use had a reduced risk for modification (aHR; 0.60 95%CI: 0.38–0.96 and aHR; 0.51 95%CI: 0.29–0.91 respectively). Beyond one year of treatment, d4T use (aHR; 2.75, 95% CI: 1.25–6.05), baseline CD4 counts ≤350 cells/mm³ (aHR; 2.45, 95%CI: 1.14–5.26), increase in age (aHR; 1.05 95%CI: 1.02–1.07) and high baseline weight >60kg aHR; 2.69 95% CI: 1.58–4.59) were associated with risk of cART modification.

Conclusions

Early treatment initiation at higher CD4 counts and avoiding d4T use may reduce treatment modification and subsequently improve sustainability of patients on the available limited options.     

Impact of Hiv-Associated Conditions on Mortality in People Commencing Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Resource Limited Settings

Objectives

To identify associations between specific WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions diagnosed after ART initiation and all cause mortality for patients in resource-limited settings (RLS).

Design, Setting

Analysis of routine program data collected prospectively from 25 programs in eight countries between 2002 and 2010.

Subjects, Participants

36,664 study participants with median ART follow-up of 1.26 years (IQR 0.55–2.27).

Outcome Measures

Using a proportional hazards model we identified factors associated with mortality, including the occurrence of specific WHO clinical stage 3 and 4 conditions during the 6-months following ART initiation.

Results

There were 2922 deaths during follow-up (8.0%). The crude mortality rate was 5.41 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI: 5.21–5.61). The diagnosis of any WHO stage 3 or 4 condition during the first 6 months of ART was associated with increased mortality (HR: 2.21; 95% CI: 1.97–2.47). After adjustment for age, sex, region and pre-ART CD4 count, a diagnosis of extrapulmonary cryptococcosis (aHR: 3.54; 95% CI: 2.74–4.56), HIV wasting syndrome (aHR: 2.92; 95%CI: 2.21 -3.85), non-tuberculous mycobacterial infection (aHR: 2.43; 95% CI: 1.80–3.28) and Pneumocystis pneumonia (aHR: 2.17; 95% CI 1.80–3.28) were associated with the greatest increased mortality. Cerebral toxoplasmosis, pulmonary and extra-pulmonary tuberculosis, Kaposi’s sarcoma and oral and oesophageal candidiasis were associated with increased mortality, though at lower rates.

Conclusions

A diagnosis of certain WHO stage 3 and 4 conditions is associated with an increased risk of mortality in those initiating ART in RLS. This information will assist initiatives to reduce excess mortality, including prioritization of resources for diagnostics, therapeutic interventions and research.     

Characteristics and Outcomes among Older HIV-Positive Adults Enrolled in HIV Programs in Four Sub-Saharan African Countries

Background

Limited information exists on adults ≥50 years receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology

Using routinely-collected longitudinal patient-level data among 391,111 adults ≥15 years enrolling in HIV care from January 2005–December 2010 and 184,689 initiating ART, we compared characteristics and outcomes between older (≥50 years) and younger adults at 199 clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We calculated proportions over time of newly enrolled and active adults receiving HIV care and initiating ART who were ≥50 years; cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTF) and recorded death one year after enrollment and ART initiation, and CD4+ response following ART initiation.

Findings

From 2005–2010, the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly enrolled in HIV care remained stable at 10%, while the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly initiating ART (10% [2005]-12% [2010]), active in follow-up (10% [2005]-14% (2010]), and active on ART (10% [2005]-16% [2010]) significantly increased. One year after enrollment, older patients had significantly lower incidence of LTF (33.1% vs. 32.6%[40–49 years], 40.5%[25–39 years], and 56.3%[15–24 years]; p-value<0.0001), but significantly higher incidence of recorded death (6.0% vs. 5.0% [40–49 years], 4.1% [25–39 years], and 2.8% [15–24 years]; p-valve<0.0001). LTF was lower after vs. before ART initiation for all ages, with older adults experiencing less LTF than younger adults. Among 85,763 ART patients with baseline and follow-up CD4+ counts, adjusted average 12-month CD4+ response for older adults was 20.6 cells/mm³ lower than for adults 25–39 years of age (95% CI: 17.1–24.1).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients who are ≥50 years has increased over time and been driven by aging of the existing patient population. Older patients experienced less LTF, higher recorded mortality and less robust CD4+ response after ART initiation. Increased programmatic attention on older adults receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted.     

The Synergistic Effect of Functional Status and Comorbidity Burden on Mortality: A 16-Year Survival Analysis

Objectives

The relationship between disability and comorbidity on mortality is widely perceived as additive in clinical models of frailty.

Design

National data were retrospectively extracted from medical records of community hospital.

Data Sources

There were of 12,804 acutely-disabled patients admitted for inpatient rehabilitation in Singapore rehabilitation community hospitals from 1996 through 2005 were followed up for death till 31 December 2011.

Outcome Measure

Cox proportional-hazards regression to assess the interaction of comorbidity and disability at discharge on all-cause mortality.

Results

During a median follow-up of 10.9 years, there were 8,565 deaths (66.9%). The mean age was 73.0 (standard deviation: 11.5) years. Independent risk factors of mortality were higher comorbidity (p<0.001), severity of disability at discharge (p<0.001), being widowed (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.25–1.53), low socioeconomic status (aHR:1.40, 95%CI:1.29–1.53), discharge to nursing home (aHR:1.14, 95%CI:1.05–1.22) and re-admission into acute care (aHR:1.54, 95%CI:1.45–1.65). In the main effects model, those with high comorbidity had an aHR = 2.41 (95%CI:2.13–2.72) whereas those with total disability had an aHR = 2.28 (95%CI:2.12–2.46). In the interaction model, synergistic interaction existed between comorbidity and disability (p<0.001) where those with high comorbidity and total disability had much higher aHR = 6.57 (95%CI:5.15–8.37).

Conclusions

Patients with greater comorbidity and disability at discharge, discharge to nursing home or re-admission into acute care, lower socioeconomic status and being widowed had higher mortality risk. Our results identified predictive variables of mortality that map well onto the frailty cascade model. Increasing comorbidity and disability interacted synergistically to increase mortality risk.     

Clinical,Virologic, Immunologic Outcomes and Emerging HIV Drug Resistance Patterns in Children and Adolescents in Public ART Care in Zimbabwe

Objective

To determine immunologic, virologic outcomes and drug resistance among children and adolescents receiving care during routine programmatic implementation in a low-income country.

Methods

A cross-sectional evaluation with collection of clinical and laboratory data for children (0-<10 years) and adolescents (10–19 years) attending a public ART program in Harare providing care for pediatric patients since 2004, was conducted. Longitudinal data for each participant was obtained from the clinic based medical record.

Results

Data from 599 children and adolescents was evaluated. The participants presented to care with low CD4 cell count and CD4%, median baseline CD4% was lower in adolescents compared with children (11.0% vs. 15.0%, p<0.0001). The median age at ART initiation was 8.0 years (IQR 3.0, 12.0); median time on ART was 2.9 years (IQR 1.7, 4.5). On ART, median CD4% improved for all age groups but remained below 25%. Older age (≥ 5 years) at ART initiation was associated with severe stunting (HAZ <-2: 53.3% vs. 28.4%, p<0.0001). Virologic failure rate was 30.6% and associated with age at ART initiation. In children, nevirapine based ART regimen was associated with a 3-fold increased risk of failure (AOR: 3.5; 95% CI: 1.3, 9.1, p = 0.0180). Children (<10y) on ART for ≥4 years had higher failure rates than those on ART for <4 years (39.6% vs. 23.9%, p = 0.0239). In those initiating ART as adolescents, each additional year in age above 10 years at the time of ART initiation (AOR 0.4 95%CI: 0.1, 0.9, p = 0.0324), and each additional year on ART (AOR 0.4, 95%CI 0.2, 0.9, p = 0.0379) were associated with decreased risk of virologic failure. Drug resistance was evident in 67.6% of sequenced virus isolates.

Conclusions

During routine programmatic implementation of HIV care for children and adolescents, delayed age at ART initiation has long-term implications on immunologic recovery, growth and virologic outcomes.     

A Description of Mortality Associated with IPT plus ART Compared to ART Alone among HIV-Infected Individuals in Addis Ababa,Ethiopia: A Cohort Study

Background

Tuberculosis (TB) is the most common human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) associated opportunistic infection. It is the leading cause of death in HIV-infected individuals in sub-Saharan Africa. Anti-retroviral therapy (ART) and isoniazid preventive therapy (IPT) are the two useful TB preventative strategies available to reduce TB among people living with HIV (PLHIV). Therefore, the aim of this study is to compare mortality associated with IPT taken together with ART, as well as ART alone, among PLHIV.

Methods

A retrospective cohort study was undertaken at Tikur Anbessa Specialized Hospital (TASH) and Zewditu Memorial Hospital (ZMH) on 185 patients receiving IPT (6 months) plus ART and 557 patients receiving ART alone. Mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years (PYs) were used to compare mortality rates amongst the groups. Time-to-death and survival probabilities of the patients were determined using the Kaplan Meier Method. The Cox Proportional Hazard Model was employed to estimate the effect of IPT plus ART on survival of PLHIV.

Results

The mortality cases noted in patients treated by IPT plus ART versus ART alone were 18 (4.5 cases/100 PYs) and 116 (10 cases/100 PYs), respectively. In reference to the ART alone, the IPT plus ART reduced the likelihood of death significantly (aHR 0.48; 95% CI 0.38–0.69) and median time to death was about 26 months (IQR 19–34). Moreover, WHO stage IV (aHR 2.42: 95% CI 1.42–4.11), CD4 values ≥350cells/mm3 (aHR 0.52; 95% CI 0.28–0.94), adherence to ART (aHR 0.12; 95% CI 0.08–0.20), primary levels of education (aHR 2.20; 95% CI 1.07–4.52); and alcohol consumption (aHR 1.71; 95% CI 1.04–2.81) were factors strongly associated with mortality.

Conclusion

We found that PLHIV treated by the IPT plus ART had a lower likelihood of mortality and delayed time-to-death when compared to patients treated by ART alone.     

Estimating the contribution of HIV-infected adults to household pneumococcal transmission in South Africa, 2016–2018: A hidden Markov modelling study

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected adults are at a higher risk of pneumococcal colonisation and disease, even while receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). To help evaluate potential indirect effects of vaccination of HIV-infected adults, we assessed whether HIV-infected adults disproportionately contribute to household transmission of pneumococci. We constructed a hidden Markov model to capture the dynamics of pneumococcal carriage acquisition and clearance observed during a longitudinal household-based nasopharyngeal swabbing study, while accounting for sample misclassifications. Households were followed-up twice weekly for approximately 10 months each year during a three-year study period for nasopharyngeal carriage detection via real-time PCR. We estimated the effect of participant’s age, HIV status, presence of a HIV-infected adult within the household and other covariates on pneumococcal acquisition and clearance probabilities. Of 1,684 individuals enrolled, 279 (16.6%) were younger children (<5 years-old) of whom 4 (1.5%) were HIV-infected and 726 (43.1%) were adults (≥18 years-old) of whom 214 (30.4%) were HIV-infected, most (173, 81.2%) with high CD4+ count. The observed range of pneumococcal carriage prevalence across visits was substantially higher in younger children (56.9–80.5%) than older children (5–17 years-old) (31.7–50.0%) or adults (11.5–23.5%). We estimate that 14.4% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 13.7–15.0) of pneumococcal-negative swabs were false negatives. Daily carriage acquisition probabilities among HIV-uninfected younger children were similar in households with and without HIV-infected adults (hazard ratio: 0.95, 95%CI: 0.91–1.01). Longer average carriage duration (11.4 days, 95%CI: 10.2–12.8 vs 6.0 days, 95%CI: 5.6–6.3) and higher median carriage density (622 genome equivalents per millilitre, 95%CI: 507–714 vs 389, 95%CI: 311.1–435.5) were estimated in HIV-infected vs HIV-uninfected adults. The use of ART and antibiotics substantially reduced carriage duration in all age groups, and acquisition rates increased with household size. Although South African HIV-infected adults on ART have longer carriage duration and density than their HIV-uninfected counterparts, they show similar patterns of pneumococcal acquisition and onward transmission.     

End Stage Renal Disease Predicts Increased Risk of Death in First Degree Relatives in the Norwegian Population

BackgroundIncreased risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD) and death in Norwegian living kidney donors has been reported, most of the donors were related to the recipient. The present study investigates risk of death in first degree relatives of ESRD patients.MethodsThe Norwegian Population Registry, The Norwegian Cause of Death Registry and the Norwegian Renal Registry were linked. All citizens born in Norway, alive in 1960 and with at least one registered first degree relative were included; individuals who died during the first year of life were excluded. A cohort-design was used, ESRD in a first degree relative was the main exposure variable and death and causes of death were the main outcome variables. Cox regression statistics were used to investigate mortality risks.Results5 130 600 individuals were included, 27 508 had at least one first degree relative with ESRD. 828 022 died during follow-up, of whom 4105 had a first degree relative with ESRD. Adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) for death was 1.13 (1.09–1.16) in individuals with a relative with ESRD compared to those without a relative with ESRD. Excluding known hereditary renal disease, aHR decreased to 1.12 (1.09–1.15). Cardiovascular death aHR was 1.15 (1.10–1.21), of which cerebrovascular death 1.34 (1.22–1.50). aHR for death due to non-hereditary renal/ureteric disease was 2.29 (1.81–2.91) with renal failure 1.80 (1.26–2.56) and glomerular disease 5.69 (3.88–8.34) as main contributors. Diabetes mellitus death aHR was 1.68 (1.35–2.10). Absolute mortality risks increased most for the oldest cohorts with excess mortality of 148 per 100.000 person years for the cohort born 1920–39 and 218 for the cohort born 1900–1919.ConclusionsESRD in first degree relatives was associated with increased hazard ratio for death. Death due to cardiovascular disease, renal disease and diabetes mellitus increased the most.     

Diabetes Mellitus,Smoking Status,and Rate of Sputum Culture Conversion in Patients with Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis: A Cohort Study from the Country of Georgia

Introduction

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is a risk factor for active tuberculosis (TB) but little is known about the effect of DM on culture conversion among patients with multidrug-resistant (MDR)-TB. The primary aim was to estimate the association between DM and rate of TB sputum culture conversion. A secondary objective was to estimate the association between DM and the risk of poor treatment outcomes among patients with MDR-TB.

Materials and Methods

A cohort of all adult patients starting MDR-TB treatment in the country of Georgia between 2009–2011 was followed during second-line TB therapy. Cox proportional models were used to estimate the adjusted hazard rate of sputum culture conversion. Log-binomial regression models were used to estimate the cumulative risk of poor TB treatment outcome.

Results

Among 1,366 patients with sputum culture conversion information, 966 (70.7%) had culture conversion and the median time to conversion was 68 days (interquartile range 50–120). The rate of conversion was similar among patients with MDR-TB and DM (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 0.95, 95%CI 0.71–1.28) compared to patients with MDR-TB only. The rate of culture conversion was significantly less in patients that currently smoked (aHR 0.82, 95%CI 0.71–0.95), had low body mass index (aHR 0.71, 95%CI 0.59–0.84), second-line resistance (aHR 0.56, 95%CI 0.43–0.73), lung cavities (aHR 0.70, 95%CI 0.59–0.83) and with disseminated TB (aHR 0.75, 95%CI 0.62–0.90). The cumulative risk of poor treatment outcome was also similar among TB patients with and without DM (adjusted risk ratio [aRR] 1.03, 95%CI 0.93–1.14).

Conclusions

In adjusted analyses, DM did not impact culture conversion rates in a clinically meaningful way but smoking did.     

Does Celiac Disease Influence Survival in Sepsis? A Nationwide Longitudinal Study

BackgroundIndividuals with celiac disease (CD) are at increased risk of sepsis. The aim of this study was to examine whether CD influences survival in sepsis of bacterial origin.MethodsNationwide longitudinal registry-based study. Through data on small intestinal biopsies from Sweden’s 28 pathology departments, we identified 29,096 individuals with CD (villous atrophy, Marsh stage III). Each individual with CD was matched with five population-based controls. Among these, 5,470 had a record of sepsis according to the Swedish Patient Register (1,432 celiac individuals and 4,038 controls). Finally we retrieved data on mortality in sepsis patients through the Swedish Cause of Death Registry.ResultsCD was associated with a 19% increase in overall mortality after sepsis (95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09–1.29), with the highest relative risk occurring in children (adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) = 1.62; 95%CI = 0.67–3.91). However, aHR for death from sepsis was lower (aHR = 1.10) and failed to reach statistical significance (95%CI = 0.72–1.69). CD did not influence survival within 28 days after sepsis (aHR = 0.98; 95%CI = 0.80–1.19).ConclusionsAlthough individuals with CD seem to be at an increased risk of overall death after sepsis, that excess risk does not differ from the general excess mortality previously seen in celiac patients in Sweden. CD as such does not seem to influence short-term or sepsis-specific survival in individuals with sepsis and therefore is not an independent risk factor for poor prognosis in sepsis.     

The Impact of Renal Impairment on Long-Term Safety and Effectiveness of Drug-Eluting Stents

Background

Renal impairment (RI) is associated with impaired prognosis in patients with coronary artery disease. Clinical and angiographic outcomes of patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) with the use of drug-eluting stents (DES) in this patient population are not well established.

Methods

We pooled individual data for 5,011 patients from 3 trials with the exclusive and unrestricted use of DES (SIRTAX - N = 1,012, LEADERS - N = 1,707, RESOLUTE AC - N = 2,292). Angiographic follow-up was available for 1,544 lesions. Outcomes through 2 years were stratified according to glomerular filtration rate (normal renal function: GFR≥90 ml/min; mild RI: 90<GFR≥60 ml/min; moderate/severe RI GFR<60 ml/min).

Results

Patients with moderate/severe RI had an increased risk of cardiac death or myocardial infarction ([MI], OR 2.14, 95%CI 1.36–3.36), cardiac death (OR 2.21, 95%CI 1.10–4.46), and MI (OR 2.02, 95%CI 1.19–3.43) compared with patients with normal renal function at 2 years follow-up. There was no difference in cardiac death or MI between patients with mild RI compared to those with normal renal function (OR 1.10, 95%CI 0.75–1.61). The risk of target-lesion revascularization was similar for patients with moderate/severe RI (OR 1.17, 95%CI 0.70–1.95) and mild RI (OR 1.16, 95%CI 0.81–1.64) compared with patients with normal renal function. In-stent late loss and in-segment restenosis were not different for patients with moderate/severe RI, mild RI, and normal renal function.

Conclusions

Renal function does not affect clinical and angiographic effectiveness of DES. However, prognosis remains impaired among patients with moderate/severe RI.     

Association of age with mortality and virological and immunological response to antiretroviral therapy in rural South African adults

Objective

To assess whether treatment outcomes vary with age for adults receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in a large rural HIV treatment cohort.

Design

Retrospective cohort analysis using data from a public HIV Treatment & Care Programme.

Methods

Adults initiating ART 1^st August 2004 - 31^st October 2009 were stratified by age at initiation: young adults (16–24 years) mid-age adults (25–49 years) and older (≥50 years) adults. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to estimate mortality rates and age and person-time stratified Cox regression to determine factors associated with mortality. Changes in CD4 cell counts were quantified using a piecewise linear model based on follow-up CD4 cell counts measured at six-monthly time points.

Results

8846 adults were included, 808 (9.1%) young adults; 7119 (80.5%) mid-age adults and 919 (10.4%) older adults, with 997 deaths over 14,778 person-years of follow-up. Adjusting for baseline characteristics, older adults had 32% excess mortality (p = 0.004) compared to those aged 25–49 years. Overall mortality rates (MR) per 100 person-years were 6.18 (95% CI 4.90–7.78); 6.55 (95% CI 6.11–7.02) and 8.69 (95% CI 7.34–10.28) for young, mid-age and older adults respectively. In the first year on ART, for older compared to both young and mid-aged adults, MR per 100 person-years were significantly higher; 0–3 months (MR: 27.1 vs 17.17 and 21.36) and 3–12 months (MR: 9.5 vs 4.02 and 6.02) respectively. CD4 count reconstitution was lower, despite better virological response in the older adults. There were no significant differences in MR after 1year of ART. Baseline markers of advanced disease were independently associated with very early mortality (0–3 months) whilst immunological and virological responses were associated with mortality after 12months.

Conclusions

Early ART initiation and improving clinical care of older adults are required to reduce high early mortality and enhance immunologic recovery, particularly in the initial phases of ART.     

Low Carbohydrate versus Isoenergetic Balanced Diets for Reducing Weight and Cardiovascular Risk: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Some popular weight loss diets restricting carbohydrates (CHO) claim to be more effective, and have additional health benefits in preventing cardiovascular disease compared to balanced weight loss diets.

Methods and Findings

We compared the effects of low CHO and isoenergetic balanced weight loss diets in overweight and obese adults assessed in randomised controlled trials (minimum follow-up of 12 weeks), and summarised the effects on weight, as well as cardiovascular and diabetes risk. Dietary criteria were derived from existing macronutrient recommendations. We searched Medline, EMBASE and CENTRAL (19 March 2014). Analysis was stratified by outcomes at 3–6 months and 1–2 years, and participants with diabetes were analysed separately. We evaluated dietary adherence and used GRADE to assess the quality of evidence. We calculated mean differences (MD) and performed random-effects meta-analysis. Nineteen trials were included (n = 3209); 3 had adequate allocation concealment. In non-diabetic participants, our analysis showed little or no difference in mean weight loss in the two groups at 3–6 months (MD 0.74 kg, 95%CI −1.49 to 0.01 kg; I² = 53%; n = 1745, 14 trials; moderate quality evidence) and 1–2 years (MD 0.48 kg, 95%CI −1.44 kg to 0.49 kg; I² = 12%; n = 1025; 7 trials, moderate quality evidence). Furthermore, little or no difference was detected at 3–6 months and 1–2 years for blood pressure, LDL, HDL and total cholesterol, triglycerides and fasting blood glucose (>914 participants). In diabetic participants, findings showed a similar pattern.

Conclusions

Trials show weight loss in the short-term irrespective of whether the diet is low CHO or balanced. There is probably little or no difference in weight loss and changes in cardiovascular risk factors up to two years of follow-up when overweight and obese adults, with or without type 2 diabetes, are randomised to low CHO diets and isoenergetic balanced weight loss diets.     

Closing the Gap: Increases in Life Expectancy among Treated HIV-Positive Individuals in the United States and Canada

Background

Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) has significantly increased survival among HIV-positive adults in the United States (U.S.) and Canada, but gains in life expectancy for this region have not been well characterized. We aim to estimate temporal changes in life expectancy among HIV-positive adults on ART from 2000–2007 in the U.S. and Canada.

Methods

Participants were from the North American AIDS Cohort Collaboration on Research and Design (NA-ACCORD), aged ≥20 years and on ART. Mortality rates were calculated using participants'' person-time from January 1, 2000 or ART initiation until death, loss to follow-up, or administrative censoring December 31, 2007. Life expectancy at age 20, defined as the average number of additional years that a person of a specific age will live, provided the current age-specific mortality rates remain constant, was estimated using abridged life tables.

Results

The crude mortality rate was 19.8/1,000 person-years, among 22,937 individuals contributing 82,022 person-years and 1,622 deaths. Life expectancy increased from 36.1 [standard error (SE) 0.5] to 51.4 [SE 0.5] years from 2000–2002 to 2006–2007. Men and women had comparable life expectancies in all periods except the last (2006–2007). Life expectancy was lower for individuals with a history of injection drug use, non-whites, and in patients with baseline CD4 counts <350 cells/mm³.

Conclusions

A 20-year-old HIV-positive adult on ART in the U.S. or Canada is expected to live into their early 70 s, a life expectancy approaching that of the general population. Differences by sex, race, HIV transmission risk group, and CD4 count remain.     

Better Antiretroviral Therapy Outcomes at Primary Healthcare Facilities: An Evaluation of Three Tiers of ART Services in Four South African Provinces

Background

There are conflicting reports of antiretroviral therapy (ART) effectiveness comparisons between primary healthcare (PHC) facilities and hospitals in low-income settings. This comparison has not been evaluated on a broad scale in South Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

A retrospective cohort study was conducted including ART-naïve adults from 59 facilities in four provinces in South Africa, enrolled between 2004 and 2007. Kaplan-Meier estimates, competing-risks Cox regression, generalised estimating equation population-averaged models and logistic regression were used to compare death, loss to follow-up (LTFU) and virological suppression (VS) between PHC, district and regional hospitals. 29 203 adults from 47 PHC facilities, nine district hospitals and three regional hospitals were included. Patients at PHC facilities had more advanced WHO stage disease when starting ART. Retention in care was 80.1% (95% CI: 79.3%–80.8%), 71.5% (95% CI: 69.1%–73.8%) and 68.7% (95% CI: 67.0%–69.7%) at PHC, district and regional hospitals respectively, after 24 months of treatment (P<0.0001). In adjusted regression analyses, LTFU was independently increased at regional hospitals (aHR 2.19; 95% CI: 1.94−2.47) and mortality was independently elevated at district hospitals (aHR 1.60; 95% CI: 1.30−1.99) compared to PHC facilities after 12 months of ART. District and regional hospital patients had independently reduced probabilities of VS, aOR 0.76 (95% CI: 0.59−0.97) and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.56−0.75) respectively compared to PHC facilities over 24 months of treatment.

Conclusions/Significance

ART outcomes were superior at PHC facilities, despite PHC patients having more advanced clinical stage disease when starting ART, suggesting that ART can be adequately provided at this level and supporting the South African government''s call for rapid up-scaling of ART at the primary level of care. Further prospective research is required to determine the degree to which outcome differences are attributable to either facility level characteristics or patient co-morbidity at hospital level.     

Cardiovascular disease,obesity, and type 2 diabetes in children born after assisted reproductive technology: A population-based cohort study

BackgroundSome earlier studies have found indications of significant changes in cardiometabolic risk factors in children born after assisted reproductive technology (ART). Most of these studies are based on small cohorts with high risk of selection bias. In this study, we compared the risk of cardiovascular disease, obesity, and type 2 diabetes between singleton children born after ART and singleton children born after spontaneous conception (SC).Methods and findingsThis was a large population-based cohort study of individuals born in Norway, Sweden, Finland, and Denmark between 1984 and 2015. Data were obtained from national ART and medical birth registers and cross-linked with data from national patient registers and other population-based registers in the respective countries. In total, 122,429 children born after ART and 7,574,685 children born after SC were included. Mean (SD) maternal age was 33.9 (4.3) years for ART and 29.7 (5.2) for SC, 67.7% versus 41.8% were primiparous, and 45.2% versus 32.1% had more than 12 years of education. Preterm birth (<37 weeks 0 days) occurred in 7.9% of children born after ART and 4.8% in children born after SC, and 5.7% versus 3.3% had a low birth weight (<2,500 g). Mean (SD) follow-up time was 8.6 (6.2) years for children born after ART and 14.0 (8.6) years for children born after SC. In total, 135 (0.11%), 645 (0.65%), and 18 (0.01%) children born after ART were diagnosed with cardiovascular disease (ischemic heart disease, cardiomyopathy, heart failure, or cerebrovascular disease), obesity or type 2 diabetes, respectively. The corresponding values were 10,702 (0.14%), 30,308 (0.74%), and 2,919 (0.04%) for children born after SC. In the unadjusted analysis, children born after ART had a significantly higher risk of any cardiovascular disease (hazard ratio [HR] 1.24; 95% CI 1.04–1.48; p = 0.02), obesity (HR 1.13; 95% CI 1.05–1.23; p = 0.002), and type 2 diabetes (HR 1.71; 95% CI 1.08–2.73; p = 0.02). After adjustment, there was no significant difference between children born after ART and children born after SC for any cardiovascular disease (adjusted HR [aHR]1.02; 95% CI 0.86–1.22; p = 0.80) or type 2 diabetes (aHR 1.31; 95% CI 0.82–2.09; p = 0.25). For any cardiovascular disease, the 95% CI was reasonably narrow, excluding effects of a substantial magnitude, while the 95% CI for type 2 diabetes was wide, not excluding clinically meaningful effects. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk among children born after ART (aHR 1.14; 95% CI 1.06–1.23; p = 0.001). Important limitations of the study were the relatively short follow-up time, the limited number of events for some outcomes, and that the outcome obesity is often not considered as a disease and therefore not caught by registers, likely leading to an underestimation of obesity in both children born after ART and children born after SC.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed no difference in the risk of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes between children born after ART and children born after SC. For obesity, there was a small but significant increased risk for children born after ART.Trial registration numberISRCTN11780826.

Emma Norrman and co-workers study the health of children born with and without assisted reproductive technology.     

Epidemiology of Severe Acute Respiratory Illness (SARI) among Adults and Children Aged ≥5 Years in a High HIV-Prevalence Setting, 2009–2012

ObjectiveThere are few published studies describing severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) epidemiology amongst older children and adults from high HIV-prevalence settings. We aimed to describe SARI epidemiology amongst individuals aged ≥5 years in South Africa.MethodsWe conducted prospective surveillance for individuals with SARI from 2009–2012. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten viruses, and blood for pneumococcal DNA. Cumulative annual SARI incidence was estimated at one site with population denominators.FindingsWe enrolled 7193 individuals, 9% (621/7067) tested positive for influenza and 9% (600/6519) for pneumococcus. HIV-prevalence was 74% (4663/6334). Among HIV-infected individuals with available data, 41% of 2629 were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART). The annual SARI hospitalisation incidence ranged from 325-617/100,000 population. HIV-infected individuals experienced a 13–19 times greater SARI incidence than HIV-uninfected individuals (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, compared to HIV-uninfected individuals, HIV-infected individuals were more likely to be receiving tuberculosis treatment (odds ratio (OR):1.7; 95%CI:1.1–2.7), have pneumococcal infection (OR 2.4; 95%CI:1.7–3.3) be hospitalised for >7 days rather than <2 days (OR1.7; 95%CI:1.2–2.2) and had a higher case-fatality ratio (8% vs 5%;OR1.7; 95%CI:1.2–2.3), but were less likely to be infected with influenza (OR 0.6; 95%CI:0.5–0.8). On multivariable analysis, independent risk indicators associated with death included HIV infection (OR 1.8;95%CI:1.3–2.4), increasing age-group, receiving mechanical ventilation (OR 6.5; 95%CI:1.3–32.0) and supplemental-oxygen therapy (OR 2.6; 95%CI:2.1–3.2).ConclusionThe burden of hospitalized SARI amongst individuals aged ≥5 years is high in South Africa. HIV-infected individuals are the most important risk group for SARI hospitalization and mortality in this setting.     

Effective Coverage for Antiretroviral Therapy in a Ugandan District with a Decentralized Model of Care

Introduction

While increasing access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) is reported from many African countries, data on effective coverage particular from settings without external support or research remains scarce. We examined and report effective coverage data from a public ART program in rural Uganda.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study at all ART-providing governmental health facilities in Iganga District, Eastern Uganda. Based on all HIV patients registered between April 2004 and September 2009 (n = 4775), we assessed indicators of program performance and determined rates of retention and Cox proportional hazards for attrition. Effective ART coverage was calculated using projections (SPECTRUM software) adapted to the district demographic structure and number of people receiving ART.

Results

By September 2009, district public sector effective ART coverage was 10.3% for adults and 1.9% for children. After a median follow-up of 26.9 months, overall ART retention was 54.7%. The probability of retention was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.69–0.75) at 12 and 0.58 (CI 0.54–0.62) at 36 months after ART initiation. Individual health facilities differed considerably regarding performance indicators and retention. Overall, 198 (16.9%) individual files of 1171 registered ART patients were lost. Young adult age (15–24 years) had a higher risk of attrition (HR 2.1, CI 1.4–3.2) as well as WHO stage I (HR 4.8, CI 1.9–11.8) and WHO stage IV (HR 2.5, CI 1.3–4.7). An interval ≥6 weeks between HIV testing and ART initiation was associated with a reduced risk (HR 0.6, CI 0.47–0.78).

Conclusion

Compared to reported national data effective ART coverage in Iganga District was low. Intensified efforts to improve access, retention in care, and quality of documentation are urgently needed. Children and young adults require special attention in the program.