Pre-Dialysis Systolic Blood Pressure-Variability Is Independently Associated with All-Cause Mortality in Incident Haemodialysis Patients

Systolic blood pressure variability is an independent risk factor for mortality and cardiovascular events. Standard measures of blood pressure predict outcome poorly in haemodialysis patients. We investigated whether systolic blood pressure variability was associated with mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. We performed a longitudinal observational study of patients commencing haemodialysis between 2005 and 2011 in East Anglia, UK, excluding patients with cardiovascular events within 6 months of starting haemodialysis. The main exposure was variability independent of the mean (VIM) of systolic blood pressure from short-gap, pre-dialysis blood pressure readings between 3 and 6 months after commencing haemodialysis, and the outcome was all-cause mortality. Of 203 patients, 37 (18.2%) patients died during a mean follow-up of 2.0 (SD 1.3) years. The age and sex-adjusted hazard ratio (HR) for mortality was 1.09 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.02–1.17) for a one-unit increase of VIM. This was not altered by adjustment for diabetes, prior cardiovascular disease and mean systolic blood pressure (HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.02–1.16). Patients with VIM of systolic blood pressure above the median were 2.4 (95% CI 1.17–4.74) times more likely to die during follow-up than those below the median. Results were similar for all measures of blood pressure variability and further adjustment for type of dialysis access, use of antihypertensives and absolute or variability of fluid intake did not alter these findings. Diastolic blood pressure variability showed no association with all cause mortality. Our study shows that variability of systolic blood pressure is a strong and independent predictor of all-cause mortality in incident haemodialysis patients. Further research is needed to understand the mechanism as this may form a therapeutic target or focus for management.     

Association of Processed Meat Intake with Hypertension Risk in Hemodialysis Patients: A Cross-Sectional Study

In this cross-sectional study, we hypothesized that hemodialysis patients consuming greater processed meat is associated with hypertension risk, which can be partly explained by the high sodium content in processed meat. From September 2013 to May 2014, one hundred and four patients requiring chronic hemodialysis treatment were recruited from hemodialysis centers. Data on systolic blood pressure and diastolic blood pressure before receiving dialysis, and 3-day dietary records of the recruited patients were collected. HD patients with systolic and diastolic blood pressures greater than140 mmHg and higher than 90 mmHg, respectively, were considered hypertension risk. Protein foods were divided into 4 categories: red meat, white meat, soybeans, and processed meat (e.g., sausage and ham). In a model adjusted for energy intake and hypertension history, additional servings of processed meats was positively associated to systolic blood pressure >140 mmHg (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 2.1 [1.0–4.3]), and diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg (odds ratio: 2.5 [1.2–5.5]). After adjustment for dietary sodium contents or body mass index (BMI), most associations were substantially attenuated and were no longer significant. In systolic blood pressure greater than140 mmHg, one serving per day of red meats (β = -1.22, P < .05) and white meats (β = -0. 75, P = .05) was associated with a reduced risk compared with one serving per day of processed meats. Similarly, compared with one serving per day of processed meat, a reduced risk of diastolic blood pressure higher than 90 mmHg was associated with one serving per day of red meat (β = -1. 59, P < .05), white meat (β = -0. 62, P < .05). Thus, in these hemodialysis patients, intake of processed meat is significantly positively associated with higher blood pressure risk, and both sodium contents in processed meat and BMI significantly contributes to this association.     

Prognosis and Risk Factors for Deterioration in Patients Admitted to a Medical Emergency Department

Objective

Patients that initially appear stable on arrival to the hospital often have less intensive monitoring of their vital signs, possibly leading to excess mortality. The aim was to describe risk factors for deterioration in vital signs and the related prognosis among patients with normal vital signs at arrival to a medical emergency department (MED).

Design and setting

Single-centre, retrospective cohort study of all patients admitted to the MED from September 2010-August 2011.

Subjects

Patients were included when their vital signs (systolic blood pressure, pulse rate, respiratory rate, Glasgow Coma Scale, oxygen saturation and temperature) were within the normal range at arrival. Deterioration was defined as a deviation from the defined normal range 2–24 hours after arrival.

Results

4292 of the 6257 (68.6%) admitted to the MED had a full set of vital signs at first presentation, 1440/4292 (33.6%) had all normal vital signs and were included in study, 44.0% were male, median age 64 years (5th/95th percentile: 21–90 years) and 446/1440 (31.0%) deteriorated within 24 hours. Independent risk factors for deterioration included age 65–84 years odds ratio (OR): 1.79 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.27–2.52), 85+ years OR 1.67 (95% CI: 1.10–2.55), Do-not-attempt-to-resuscitate order OR 3.76 (95% CI: 1.37–10.31) and admission from the open general ED OR 1.35 (95% CI: 1.07–1.71). Thirty-day mortality was 7.9% (95% CI: 5.5–10.7%) among deteriorating patients and 1.9% (95% CI: 1.2–3.0%) among the non-deteriorating, hazard ratio 4.11 (95% CI: 2.38–7.10).

Conclusions

Among acutely admitted medical patients who arrive with normal vital signs, 31.0% showed signs of deterioration within 24 hours. Risk factors included old age, Do-not-attempt-to-resuscitate order, admission from the open general ED. Thirty-day mortality among patients with deterioration was four times higher than among non-deteriorating patients. Further research is needed to determine whether intensified monitoring of vital signs can help to prevent deterioration or mortality among medical emergency patients.     

Management of Spontaneously Ruptured Hepatocellular Carcinomas in the Radiofrequency Ablation Era

Background and aim

Spontaneous rupture of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) carries a high mortality. The use of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) in recent years has enriched the armamentarium for hemostasis of spontaneously ruptured HCCs but its results have not been documented. This study investigated the prognosis and outcome of spontaneous rupture of HCC as well as the results of using RFA for hemostasis.

Patients and method

From January 1991 to December 2010, 5283 patients were diagnosed with HCC at our hospital, and 189 of them had spontaneous rupture of HCCs. They were grouped under two periods: period 1, 1991–2000, n = 70; period 2, 2001–2010, n = 119. RFA was available in period 2 only.

Results

Hepatitis B virus infection was predominant in both periods. Surgical hemostasis was mainly achieved by hepatic artery ligation in period 1 and by RFA in period 2. The 30-day hospital mortality after surgical treatment was 55.6% (n = 18) in period 1 and 19.2% (n = 26) in period 2 (p = 0.012). Multivariate analysis identified 4 independent factors for better overall survival, namely, hemostasis by transarterial chemoembolization (hazard ratio 0.516, 95% confidence interval 0.354–0.751), hemostasis by RFA (hazard ratio 0.431, 95% confidence interval 0.236–0.790), having surgery as a subsequent treatment (hazard ratio 0.305, 95% confidence interval 0.186–0.498), and a serum total bilirubin level <19 umol/L (hazard ratio 1.596, 95% confidence interval 1.137–2.241).

Conclusion

The use of RFA for hemostasis during laparotomy greatly reduced the hospital mortality rate when compared with conventional hepatic artery ligation.     

Health Factors and Risk of All-Cause,Cardiovascular, and Coronary Heart Disease Mortality: Findings from the MONICA and HAPIEE Studies in Lithuania

Aims

This study investigated the trends and levels of the prevalence of health factors, and the association of all-cause and cardiovascular (CVD) mortality with healthy levels of combined risk factors among Lithuanian urban population.

Methods

Data from five general population surveys in Kaunas, Lithuania, conducted between 1983 and 2008 were used. Healthy factors measured at baseline include non-smoking, normal weight, normal arterial blood pressure, normal level of total serum cholesterol, normal physical activity and normal level of fasting glucose. Among 9,209 men and women aged 45–64 (7,648 were free from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke at baseline), 1,219 death cases from any cause, 589 deaths from CVD, and 342 deaths from CHD occurred during follow up. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the association between health factors and mortality from all causes, CVD and CHD.

Results

Between 1983 and 2008, the proportion of subjects with 6 healthy levels of risk factors was higher in 2006–2008 than in 1983–1984 (0.6% vs. 0.2%; p = 0.09), although there was a significant increase in fasting glucose and a decline in intermediate physical activity. Men and women with normal or intermediate levels of risk factors had significantly lower all-cause, CVD and CHD mortality risk than persons with high levels of risk factors. Subjects with 5–6 healthy factors had hazard ratio (HR) of CVD mortality 0.35 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.15–0.83) compared to average risk in the whole population. The hazard ratio for CVD mortality risk was significant in men (HR 0.34, 95% CI 0.12–0.97) but not in women (HR 0.38, 95% CI 0.09–1.67).

Conclusions

An inverse association of most healthy levels of cardiovascular risk factors with risk of all-cause and CVD mortality was observed in this urban population-based cohort. A greater number of cardiovascular health factors were related with significantly lower risk of CVD mortality, particularly among men.     

Retinal Microvascular Abnormalities and Risk of Renal Failure in Asian Populations

BackgroundRetinal microvascular signs may provide insights into the structure and function of small vessels that are associated with renal disease. We examined the relationship of retinal microvascular signs with both prevalent and incident end-stage renal disease (ESRD) in a multi-ethnic Asian population.MethodsA total of 5763 subjects (aged ≥40 years) from two prospective population-based studies (the Singapore Malay Eye Study and the Singapore Prospective Study) were included for the current analysis. Retinopathy was graded using the modified Airlie House classification system. Retinal vascular parameters were measured using computer-assisted programs to quantify the retinal vessel widths (arteriolar and venular caliber) and retinal vascular network (fractal dimension). Data on ESRD was obtained by record linkage with the ESRD cases registered by National Registry of Diseases Office, Singapore. Multi-variable adjusted regression analyses were performed to assess the associations of baseline retinal vascular parameters and prevalent and incident ESRD.ResultsAt baseline, 21(0.36%) persons had prevalent ESRD. During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 33 (0.57%) subjects developed ESRD. In our analyses, retinopathy was associated with prevalent ESRD (multi-variable adjusted odds ratio [OR], 3.21, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.28–8.05) and incident ESRD (multi-variable adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 2.51, 95%CI: 1.14–5.54). This association was largely seen in person with diabetes (HR, 2.60, 95%CI: 1.01–6.66) and not present in persons without diabetes (HR, 1.65, 95%CI: 0.14–18.98). Retinal arteriolar caliber, retinal venular caliber and retinal vascular fractal dimension were not associated with ESRD.ConclusionRetinopathy signs in persons with diabetes are related to an increased risk of ESRD; however, other microvascular changes in the retina are not associated with ESRD.     

Association between Hypertension and the Prevalence of Low Back Pain and Osteoarthritis in Koreans: A Cross-Sectional Study

Background

Hypertension and musculoskeletal disorders are highly prevalent in adult populations. The objective of this study was to investigate the association between hypertension and prevalence of low back pain (LBP) and osteoarthritis in Koreans.

Methods

A total 17,128 participants (age ≥20 years) who answered low back pain and osteoarthritis items in the 4th Korean National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2007–2009) were analyzed. Odds ratios were calculated using logistic regression and were adjusted for age, sex, income level, education, occupation, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and physical activity.

Results

Lifetime prevalence of LBP in hypertensive subjects was 34.4%, and that of osteoarthritis 26.2%. LBP prevalence was significantly lower in hypertensives (fully adjusted OR 0.79; 95% CI 0.70–0.90), and both LBP and osteoarthritis prevalence was significantly lower in participants with systolic blood pressure ≥140mmHg than those with <120mmHg (fully adjusted OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.70–0.94, and 0.81; 95% CI 0.68–0.96, respectively). Prevalence of LBP in subjects with diastolic blood pressure ≥90mmHg was also significantly lower than those with <80mmHg (fully adjusted OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.63–0.85). LBP and osteoarthritis prevalence did not differ by systolic or diastolic blood pressure interval in respondents taking antihypertensive medication. LBP and osteoarthritis prevalence increased with longer hypertension duration (fully adjusted p for trend 0.028, and 0.0008, respectively).

Conclusions

Hypertension showed an inverse relationship with LBP and osteoarthritis prevalence, which may be ascribed to hypertension-associated hypalgesia, and antihypertensive medication intake and longer hypertension duration attenuated this association.     

Zolpidem Use and the Risk of Injury: A Population-Based Follow-Up Study

Background

While an association between zolpidem use and fracture and road accident was previously proposed, this study aimed to further explore the frequency and risk of a wide spectrum of injuries in subjects prescribed with zolpidem in Taiwan.

Methods

We identified 77,036 subjects who received Zolpidem treatment between 2005 and 2007. We randomly selected 77,036 comparison subjects who were frequency-matched based-on their demographic profiles. We individually tracked each subject for a 90-day period to identify those who subsequently suffered an injury. Cox proportional hazards regressions were performed to calculate the hazard ratio of injury between the two groups.

Results

The incidence rate of injury during the 90-day follow-up period for the total subjects was 18.11 (95% CI = 17.69–18.54) per 100 person-years; this was 24.35 (95% CI = 23.66–25.05) and 11.86 (95% CI = 11.39–12.36) for the study and comparison cohort, respectively. After adjusting for demographic variables, the hazard ratio (HR) of injury during the 90-day follow-up period for study subjects was 1.83 (95% CI = 1.73–1.94) that of comparison subjects. Additionally, compared to comparison subjects, the adjusted HR of injury during the 90-day follow-up period for study subjects who were prescribed Zolpidem for >30 days was as high as 2.17 (95% CI = 2.05–2.32). The adjusted HR of injury to blood vessels for study subjects was particularly high when compared to comparison subjects (HR = 6.34; 95% CI = 1.37–29.38).

Conclusions

We found that patients prescribed with Zolpidem were at a higher risk for a wide range of injuries.     

A Lower Level of Forced Expiratory Volume in 1 Second Is a Risk Factor for All-Cause and Cardiovascular Mortality in a Japanese Population: The Takahata Study

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease is a known risk factor for cardiovascular death in Western countries. Because Japan has a low cardiovascular death rate, the association between a lower level of forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV₁) and mortality in Japan’s general population is unknown. To clarify this, we conducted a community-based longitudinal study. This study included 3253 subjects, who received spirometry from 2004 to 2006 in Takahata, with a 7-year follow-up. The causes of death were assessed on the basis of the death certificate. In 338 subjects, airflow obstruction was observed by spirometry. A total of 127 subjects died. Cardiovascular death was the second highest cause of death in this population. The pulmonary functions of the deceased subjects were significantly lower than those of the subjects who were alive at the end of follow-up. The relative risk of death by all causes, respiratory failure, lung cancer, and cardiovascular disease was significantly increased with airflow obstruction. The Kaplan–Meier analysis showed that all-cause and cardiovascular mortality significantly increased with a worsening severity of airflow obstruction. After adjusting for possible factors that could influence prognosis, a Cox proportional hazard model analysis revealed that a lower level of FEV₁ was an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (per 10% increase; hazard ratio [HR], 0.89; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82–0.98; and HR, 0.72; 95% CI, 0.61–0.86, respectively). In conclusion, airflow obstruction is an independent risk factor for all-cause and cardiovascular death in the Japanese general population. Spirometry might be a useful test to evaluate the risk of cardiovascular death and detect the risk of respiratory death by lung cancer or respiratory failure in healthy Japanese individuals.     

Metabolic Factors Associated with Risk of Renal Cell Carcinoma

Previous studies have shown that obesity and hypertension are associated with increased risk of renal cell carcinoma (RCC), but less is known about the association to other metabolic factors. In the Metabolic Syndrome and Cancer project (Me-Can) data on body mass index (BMI, kg/m2), blood pressure, and circulating levels of glucose, cholesterol, and triglycerides were collected from 560,388 men and women in cohorts from Norway, Austria, and Sweden. By use of Cox proportional hazard models, hazard ratios (HR) were calculated for separate and composite metabolic exposures. During a median follow-up of 10 years, 592 men and 263 women were diagnosed with RCC. Among men, we found an increased risk of RCC for BMI, highest vs. lowest quintile, (HR = 1.51, 95% CI 1.13–2.03), systolic blood pressure, (HR = 3.40, 95% CI 1.91–6.06), diastolic blood pressure, (HR = 3.33, 95% CI 1.85–5.99), glucose, (HR = 3.75, 95% CI 1.46–9.68), triglycerides, (HR = 1.79, 95% CI 1.00–3.21) and a composite score of these metabolic factors, (HR = 2.68, 95% CI 1.75–4.11). Among women we found an increased risk of RCC for BMI, highest vs. lowest quintile, (HR = 2.21, 95% CI 1.32–3.70) and the composite score, (HR = 2.29, 95% CI 1.12–4.68). High levels of the composite score were also associated with risk of death from RCC among both men and women. No multiplicative statistical or biological interactions between metabolic factors on risk of RCC were found. High levels of BMI, blood pressure, glucose and triglycerides among men and high BMI among women were associated with increased risk of RCC.     

Vascular Disease and Risk Stratification for Ischemic Stroke and All-Cause Death in Heart Failure Patients without Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background

Stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients previously diagnosed with different manifestations of vascular disease is poorly described. We conducted an observational study to evaluate the stroke and mortality risk among heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation and with peripheral artery disease (PAD) or prior myocardial infarction (MI).

Methods

Population-based cohort study of patients diagnosed with incident heart failure during 2000–2012 and without atrial fibrillation, identified by record linkage between nationwide registries in Denmark. Hazard rate ratios of ischemic stroke and all-cause death after 1 year of follow-up were used to compare patients with either: a PAD diagnosis; a prior MI diagnosis; or no vascular disease.

Results

39,357 heart failure patients were included. When compared to heart failure patients with no vascular disease, PAD was associated with a higher 1-year rate of ischemic stroke (adjusted hazard rate ratio [HR]: 1.34, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.08–1.65) and all-cause death (adjusted HR: 1.47, 95% CI: 1.35–1.59), whereas prior MI was not (adjusted HR: 1.00, 95% CI: 0.86–1.15 and 0.94, 95% CI: 0.89–1.00, for ischemic stroke and all-cause death, respectively). When comparing patients with PAD to patients with prior MI, PAD was associated with a higher rate of both outcomes.

Conclusions

Among incident heart failure patients without diagnosed atrial fibrillation, a previous diagnosis of PAD was associated with a significantly higher rate of the ischemic stroke and all-cause death compared to patients with no vascular disease or prior MI. Prevention strategies may be particularly relevant among HF patients with PAD.     

Serum Potassium Levels and Its Variability in Incident Peritoneal Dialysis Patients: Associations with Mortality

Background

Abnormal serum potassium is associated with an increased risk of mortality in dialysis patients. However, the impacts of serum potassium levels on short- and long-term mortality and association of potassium variability with death in peritoneal dialysis (PD) patients are uncertain.

Methods

We examined mortality-predictability of serum potassium at baseline and its variability in PD patients treated in our center January 2006 through December 2010 with follow-up through December 2012. The hazard ratios (HRs) were used to assess the relationship between baseline potassium levels and short-term (≤1 year) as well as long-term (>1 year) survival. Variability of serum potassium was defined as the coefficient of variation of serum potassium (CVSP) during the first year of PD.

Results

A total of 886 incident PD patients were enrolled, with 248 patients (27.9%) presented hypokalemia (serum potassium <3.5 mEq/L). During a median follow-up of 31 months (range: 0.5–81.0 months), adjusted all-cause mortality hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for baseline serum potassium of <3.0, 3.0 to <3.5, 3.5 to <4.0, 4.5 to <5.0, and ≥5.0 mEq/L, compared with 4.0 to <4.5 (reference), were 1.79 (1.02–3.14), 1.15 (0.72–1.86), 1.31 (0.82–2.08), 1.33 (0.71–2.48), 1.28 (0.53–3.10), respectively. The increased risk of lower potassium with mortality was evident during the first year of follow-up, but vanished thereafter. Adjusted all-cause mortality HR for CVSP increments of 7.5% to <12.0%; 12.0% to <16.7% and ≥16.7%, compared with <7.5% (reference), were 1.35 (0.67–2.71), 2.00 (1.05–3.83) and 2.18 (1.18–4.05), respectively. Similar association was found between serum potassium levels and its variability and cardiovascular mortality.

Conclusions

A lower serum potassium level was associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality during the first year of follow-up in incident PD patients. In addition, higher variability of serum potassium levels conferred an increased risk of death in this population.     

Psoriasis and the Risk of Pneumonia: A Population-Based Study

Background

Psoriasis is a prevalent autoimmune disorder. Various studies have reported on the relationship between psoriasis and chronic diseases but very few have explored the association between psoriasis and subsequent acute infection. This retrospective cohort study aimed to compare the risk of pneumonia between subjects with and those without psoriasis.

Methods

The medical records of 14,022 patients with psoriasis and 14,022 without psoriasis were obtained from the Taiwan Longitudinal Health Insurance Database 2000. Each patient was followed-up for a three-year period. Cox proportional hazard regressions were performed to compare difference of subsequent pneumonia incidence between subjects with and those without psoriasis.

Results

There were 206 (1.47%) subjects with psoriasis and 138 (0.98%) without psoriasis hospitalized for pneumonia. By Cox proportional hazard regressions analysis, the HR (hazard ratio) of pneumonia requiring hospitalization for patients with psoriasis was 1.50 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21–1.86) compared to patients without psoriasis. The adjusted HR was 1.40 (95% CI: 1.12–1.73). The adjusted HR of pneumonia hospitalization for subjects with mild and severe psoriasis was 1.36 (95% CI: 1.09–1.70) and 1.68 (95% CI: 1.12–2.52), respectively, compared to those without psoriasis.

Conclusions

Patients with psoriasis have significantly higher incidence of pneumonia compared to those without psoriasis.     

14-Year Risk of All-Cause Mortality According to Hypoglycaemic Drug Exposure in a General Population

Purpose

Guidelines for management of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus recommend the use of hypoglycaemic drugs when lifestyle interventions remain insufficient for glycaemic control. Recent trials have provided worrying safety data on certain hypoglycaemic drugs. The aim of this study was to assess 14-year risk of all-cause mortality according to hypoglycaemic drug exposure at baseline, in a general population.

Methods

Our analysis was based on the observational Third French MONICA survey on cardiovascular risk factors (1995–1997). Vital status was obtained 14 years after inclusion, and assessment of determinants of mortality was based on multivariable Cox modelling.

Results

There were 3336 participants and 248 deaths over the 14-year period. At baseline, there were 3162 (95%) non-diabetic, 46 (1%) untreated type 2 diabetic and 128 (4%) type 2 diabetic subjects with hypoglycaemic drug treatment (metformin alone (31%), sulfonylureas alone or in combination (49%), insulin alone or in combination (10%), or other treatments (9%)). After adjustment for duration of diabetes, history of diabetes complications, area of residence (centre), age, gender, educational level, alcohol consumption, smoking, blood pressure, LDL and HDL cholesterol, which all were significant and independent determinants of mortality, the hazard ratio for all-cause mortality was 3.22 [95% confidence interval: 0.87–11.9] for untreated diabetic subjects, 2.28 [0.98–5.26] for diabetics treated with metformin alone, 1.70 [0.92–3.16] for diabetics with sulfonylureas and 4.92 [1.70–14.3] for diabetic with insulin versus non-diabetic subjects.

Conclusions

Our results support the conclusion that until more evidence is provided from randomized trials, a prudent approach should be to restrain use of insulin to situations in which combinations of non-insulin agents have failed to appropriately achieve glycemic control, as it is recommended in the current guidelines for the management of type 2 diabetes.     

Determinants of Mortality and Loss to Follow-Up among Adults Enrolled in HIV Care Services in Rwanda

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) improves morbidity and mortality in patients with HIV, however high rates of loss to follow-up (LTF) and mortality have been documented in HIV care and treatment programs.

Methods

We analyzed routinely-collected data on HIV-infected patients ≥15 years enrolled at 41 healthcare facilities in Rwanda from 2005 to 2010. LTF was defined as not attending clinic in the last 12 months for pre-ART patients and 6 months for ART patients. For the pre-ART period, sub-distribution hazards models were constructed to estimate LTF and death to account for competing risks. Kaplan-Meier (KM) and Cox proportional hazards models were used for patients on ART.

Results

31,033 ART-naïve adults were included, 64% were female and 75% were WHO stage I or II at enrollment. 17,569 (56%) patients initiated ART. Pre-ART competing risk estimates of LTF at 2 years was 11.2% (95%CI, 10.9–11.6%) and 2.9% for death (95%CI 2.7–3.1%). Among pre-ART patients, male gender was associated with higher LTF (adjusted sub-hazard ratio (aSHR) 1.3, 95%CI 1.1–1.5) and death (aSHR 1.7, 95%CI 1.4–2.1). Low CD4 count (CD4<100 vs. ≥350 aSHR 0.2, 95%CI 0.1–0.3) and higher WHO stage (WHO stage IV vs. stage I aSHR 0.4, 95%CI 0.2–0.6) were protective against pre-ART LTF. KM estimates for LTF and death in ART patients at 2 years were 4.4% (95%CI 4.4–4.5%) and 6.3% (95%CI 6.2–6.4%). In patients on ART, male gender was associated with LTF (adjusted hazard ratio (AHR) 1.4, 95%CI 1.2–1.7) and death (AHR1.3, 95%CI 1.2–1.5). Mortality was higher for ART patients ≥40 years and in those with lower CD4 count at ART initiation.

Conclusions

Low rates of LTF and death were founds among pre-ART and ART patients in Rwanda but greater efforts are needed to retain patients in care prior to ART initiation, particularly among those who are healthy at enrollment.     

Life Expectancy in a Large Cohort of Type 2 Diabetes Patients Treated in Primary Care (ZODIAC-10)

Background

Most longitudinal studies showed increased relative mortality in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus until now. As a result of major changes in treatment regimes over the past years, with more stringent goals for metabolic control and cardiovascular risk management, improvement of life expectancy should be expected. In our study, we aimed to assess present-day life expectancy of type 2 diabetes patients in an ongoing cohort study.

Methodology and Principal Findings

We included 973 primary care type 2 diabetes patients in a prospective cohort study, who were all participating in a shared care project in The Netherlands. Vital status was assessed from May 2001 till May 2007. Main outcome measurement was life expectancy assessed by transforming actual survival time to standardised survival time allowing adjustment for the baseline mortality rate of the general population. At baseline, mean age was 66 years, mean HbA_1c 7.0%. During a median follow-up of 5.4 years, 165 patients died (78 from cardiovascular causes), and 17 patients were lost to follow-up. There were no differences in life expectancy in subjects with type 2 diabetes compared to life expectancy in the general population. In multivariate Cox regression analyses, concentrating on the endpoints ‘all-cause’ and cardiovascular mortality, a history of cardiovascular disease: hazard ratio (HR) 1.71 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.23–2.37), and HR 2.59 (95% CI 1.56–4.28); and albuminuria: HR 1.72 (95% CI 1.26–2.35), and HR 1.83 (95% CI 1.17–2.89), respectively, were significant predictors, whereas smoking, HbA_1c, systolic blood pressure and diabetes duration were not.

Conclusions

This study shows a normal life expectancy in a cohort of subjects with type 2 diabetes patients in primary care when compared to the general population. A history of cardiovascular disease and albuminuria, however, increased the risk of a reduction of life expectancy. These results show that, in a shared care environment, a normal life expectancy is achievable in type 2 diabetes patients.     

Association of Sick Sinus Syndrome with Incident Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study and Cardiovascular Health Study

Background

Sick sinus syndrome (SSS) is a common indication for pacemaker implantation. Limited information exists on the association of sick sinus syndrome (SSS) with mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population.

Methods

We studied 19,893 men and women age 45 and older in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study and the Cardiovascular Health Study (CHS), two community-based cohorts, who were without a pacemaker or atrial fibrillation (AF) at baseline. Incident SSS cases were validated by review of medical charts. Incident CVD and mortality were ascertained using standardized protocols. Multivariable Cox models were used to estimate the association of incident SSS with selected outcomes.

Results

During a mean follow-up of 17 years, 213 incident SSS events were identified and validated (incidence, 0.6 events per 1,000 person-years). After adjustment for confounders, SSS incidence was associated with increased mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 1.39, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.14–1.70), coronary heart disease (HR 1.72, 95%CI 1.11–2.66), heart failure (HR 2.87, 95%CI 2.17–3.80), stroke (HR 1.56, 95%CI 0.99–2.46), AF (HR 5.75, 95%CI 4.43–7.46), and pacemaker implantation (HR 53.7, 95%CI 42.9–67.2). After additional adjustment for other incident CVD during follow-up, SSS was no longer associated with increased mortality, coronary heart disease, or stroke, but remained associated with higher risk of heart failure (HR 2.00, 95%CI 1.51–2.66), AF (HR 4.25, 95%CI 3.28–5.51), and pacemaker implantation (HR 25.2, 95%CI 19.8–32.1).

Conclusion

Individuals who develop SSS are at increased risk of death and CVD. The mechanisms underlying these associations warrant further investigation.     

Prognostic Value of Obesity on Both Overall Mortality and Cardiovascular Disease in the General Population

Background

Obesity represents an important health problem and its association with cardiovascular risk factors is well-known. The aim of this work was to assess the correlation between obesity and mortality (both, all-cause mortality and the combined variable of all-cause mortality plus the appearance of a non-fatal first cardiovascular event) in a general population sample from the south-east of Spain.

Materials and Methods

This prospective cohort study used stratified and randomized two-stage sampling. Obesity [body mass index (BMI) ≥30 kg/m²] as a predictive variable of mortality and cardiovascular events was assessed after controlling for age, sex, cardiovascular disease history, high blood pressure, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, high-density lipoprotein/triglycerides ratio, total cholesterol and smoking with the Cox regression model.

Results

The mean follow-up time of the 1,248 participants was 10.6 years. The incidence of all-cause mortality during this period was 97 deaths for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 80–113) and the incidence of all-cause mortality+cardiovascular morbidity was 143 cases for every 10,000 person/years (95% CI: 124–163). A BMI ≥35 kg/m² yielded a hazard ratio for all-cause mortality of 1.94 (95% CI: 1.11–3.42) in comparison to non-obese subjects (BMI <30 kg/m²). For the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality, a BMI ≥35 kg/m² had a hazard ratio of 1.84 (95% CI: 1.15–2.93) compared to non-obese subjects.

Conclusions

A BMI ≥35 kg/m² is an important predictor of both overall mortality and of the combination of cardiovascular morbidity plus all-cause mortality.