Flying in the face of climate change: a review of climate change, past, present and future

The distribution and abundance of birds is known to depend critically upon climate variability at a range of temporal and spatial scales. In this paper we review historical changes in climate in the context of what is known about climate variability over the last millennium, with particular reference to the British Isles. The climate of Britain is now warmer than it has been in at least 340 years, with the 1990s decade 0.5 °C warmer than the 1961–1990 average. In addition, the frequency of cold days (mean temperature below 0 °C), particularly during March and November, has declined and there has been a marked shift in the seasonality of precipitation, with winters becoming substantially wetter and summers becoming slightly drier. Current understanding is that the rate of future warming is likely to accelerate with more frequent and more intense summer heatwaves, milder winters, an increase in winter rainfall, an increased risk of winter river floods, and an increase in mean sea-level and associated coastal flooding. All of these aspects of climate change are likely to impact on coastal birds. A range of potential future climate scenarios for the British Isles are presented derived from recently completed global climate model experiments. For migrant bird species, changes in the British climate have also to be seen within the context of remote climate change in both the breeding and the overwintering grounds.     

Phase shifts, herbivory, and the resilience of coral reefs to climate change

Many coral reefs worldwide have undergone phase shifts to alternate, degraded assemblages because of the combined effects of over-fishing, declining water quality, and the direct and indirect impacts of climate change. Here, we experimentally manipulated the density of large herbivorous fishes to test their influence on the resilience of coral assemblages in the aftermath of regional-scale bleaching in 1998, the largest coral mortality event recorded to date. The experiment was undertaken on the Great Barrier Reef, within a no-fishing reserve where coral abundances and diversity had been sharply reduced by bleaching. In control areas, where fishes were abundant, algal abundance remained low, whereas coral cover almost doubled (to 20%) over a 3 year period, primarily because of recruitment of species that had been locally extirpated by bleaching. In contrast, exclusion of large herbivorous fishes caused a dramatic explosion of macroalgae, which suppressed the fecundity, recruitment, and survival of corals. Consequently, management of fish stocks is a key component in preventing phase shifts and managing reef resilience. Importantly, local stewardship of fishing effort is a tractable goal for conservation of reefs, and this local action can also provide some insurance against larger-scale disturbances such as mass bleaching, which are impractical to manage directly.     

The future of high-quality Ceylon tea seems bleak in the face of climate change

International Journal of Biometeorology - Understanding the interactive effects and relationships between biochemical elements of tea leaves and the related factors, particularly climatic,...     

Systematic conservation planning in the face of climate change: bet-hedging on the Columbia Plateau

Systematic conservation planning efforts typically focus on protecting current patterns of biodiversity. Climate change is poised to shift species distributions, reshuffle communities, and alter ecosystem functioning. In such a dynamic environment, lands selected to protect today's biodiversity may fail to do so in the future. One proposed approach to designing reserve networks that are robust to climate change involves protecting the diversity of abiotic conditions that in part determine species distributions and ecological processes. A set of abiotically diverse areas will likely support a diversity of ecological systems both today and into the future, although those two sets of systems might be dramatically different. Here, we demonstrate a conservation planning approach based on representing unique combinations of abiotic factors. We prioritize sites that represent the diversity of soils, topographies, and current climates of the Columbia Plateau. We then compare these sites to sites prioritized to protect current biodiversity. This comparison highlights places that are important for protecting both today's biodiversity and the diversity of abiotic factors that will likely determine biodiversity patterns in the future. It also highlights places where a reserve network designed solely to protect today's biodiversity would fail to capture the diversity of abiotic conditions and where such a network could be augmented to be more robust to climate-change impacts.     

Beyond corals and fish: the effects of climate change on noncoral benthic invertebrates of tropical reefs

Climate change is threatening tropical reefs across the world, with most scientists agreeing that the current changes in climate conditions are occurring at a much faster rate than in the past and are potentially beyond the capacity of reefs to adapt and recover. Current research in tropical ecosystems focuses largely on corals and fishes, although other benthic marine invertebrates provide crucial services to reef systems, with roles in nutrient cycling, water quality regulation, and herbivory. We review available information on the effects of environmental conditions associated with climate change on noncoral tropical benthic invertebrates, including inferences from modern and fossil records. Increasing sea surface temperatures may decrease survivorship and increase the developmental rate, as well as alter the timing of gonad development, spawning, and food availability. The broad latitudinal distribution and associated temperature ranges of several pantropical taxa suggest that some reef communities may have an in‐built adaptive capacity. Tropical benthic invertebrates will also show species‐specific sublethal and lethal responses to sea‐level rise, ocean acidification, physical disturbance, runoff, turbidity, sedimentation, and changes in ocean circulation. In order to accurately predict a species' response to these stressors, we must consider the magnitude and duration of exposure to each stressor, as well as the physiology, mobility, and habitat requirements of the species. Stressors will not act independently, and many organisms will be exposed to multiple stressors concurrently, including anthropogenic stressors. Environmental changes associated with climate change are linked to larger ecological processes, including changes in larval dispersal and recruitment success, shifts in community structure and range extensions, and the establishment and spread of invasive species. Loss of some species will trigger economic losses and negative effects on ecosystem function. Our review is intended to create a framework with which to predict the vulnerability of benthic invertebrates to the stressors associated with climate change, as well as their adaptive capacity. We anticipate that this review will assist scientists, managers, and policy‐makers to better develop and implement regional research and management strategies, based on observed and predicted changes in environmental conditions.     

White-band disease and the changing face of Caribbean coral reefs

In recent decades, the cover of fleshy macroalgae has increased and coral cover has decreased on most Caribbean reefs. Coral mortality precipitated this transition, and the accumulation of macroalgal biomass has been enhanced by decreased herbivory and increased nutrient input. Populations of Acropora palmata (elkhorn coral) and A. cervicornis (staghorn coral), two of the most important framework-building species, have died throughout the Caribbean, substantially reducing coral cover and providing substratum for algal growth. Hurricanes have devastated local populations of Acropora spp. over the past 20–25 years, but white-band disease, a putative bacterial syndrome specific to the genus Acropora, has been a more significant source of mortality over large areas of the Caribbean region.Paleontological data suggest that the regional Acropora kill is without precedent in the late Holocene. In Belize, A. cervicornis was the primary ecological and geological constituent of reefs in the central shelf lagoon until the mid-1980s. After constructing reef framework for thousands of years, A. cervicornis was virtually eliminated from the area over a ten-year period. Evidence from other parts of the Caribbean supports the hypothesis of continuous Holocene accumulation and recent mass mortality of Acropora spp. Prospects are poor for the rapid recovery of A. cervicornis, because its reproductive strategy emphasizes asexual fragmentation at the expense of dispersive sexual reproduction. A. palmata also relies on fragmentation, but this species has a higher rate of sexual recruitment than A. cervicornis. If the Acropora spp. do not recover, macroalgae will continue to dominate Caribbean reefs, accompanied by increased abundances of brooding corals, particularly Agaricia spp. and Porites spp. The outbreak of white-band disease has been coincident with increased human activity, and the possibility of a causal connection should be further investigated.     

The interacting effects of land use change,climate change and suppression of natural disturbances on landscape forest structure in the Swiss Alps

Ecosystems are being modified by a multiplicity of interacting natural and anthropogenic factors. The most important of these factors include changes in land use, changes in climate, and alterations of disturbance regimes. Many studies have considered these factors separately; however, these factors do not act in isolation, but rather interact to affect ecosystem structure and function. In the present study, we analyzed the interacting effects of abandonment of agricultural practices, increases in temperature, and anthropogenic suppression of the avalanche regime on landscape forest structure (percent canopy cover) in the Davos region of the Swiss Alps over the past 45 years. Compared to 1954, the Davos region is now characterized by greater forest cover and lower landscape heterogeneity. The greatest increases in forest structural stage occurred in areas in which land use changed from agricultural to non‐agricultural, that were the closest to formerly active avalanche tracks, and in which the percentage change in number of growing degree days (GDD) was high. Change in land use was the most important variable contributing to changes in landscape forest structure, followed by changes in the disturbance regime, then changes in GDD. There also exist clear interactions among these variables, which indicate, for example, that the effects of the suppression of disturbances and changes in climate are contingent on the more immediate effects of changes in land use. Understanding the relative importance of, and interactions among, changes in land use, climate, and disturbances can contribute to an improved understanding of ecosystem dynamics and to better management decisions.     

Interactions between climate change, competition, dispersal, and disturbances in a tree migration model

Potentially significant shifts in the geographical patterns of vegetation are an expected result of climate change. However, the importance of local processes (e.g., dispersal, competition, or disturbance) has been often ignored in climate change modeling. We develop an individual-based simulation approach to assess how these mechanisms affect migration rate. We simulate the northward progression of a theoretical tree species when climate change makes northern habitat suitable. We test how the rate of progression is affected by (1) competition with a resident species, (2) interactions with disturbance regimes, (3) species dispersal kernel, and (4) the intensity of climate change over time. Results reveal a strong response of species’ expansion rate to the presence of a local competitor, as well as nonlinear effects of disturbance. We discuss these results in light of current knowledge of northern forest dynamics and results found in the climatic research literature.     

Formation of current sheets in structurally stable and structurally unstable magnetic configurations with two null lines

The nonlinear dynamics of magnetoacoustic and Alfvén MHD perturbations in structurally unstable magnetic configurations with two null lines (X-lines) is studied both analytically and numerically. It is shown that these perturbations cause the electric current to evolve nonlinearly in such a manner that a structurally unstable configuration of the magnetic field transforms into a structurally stable configuration. Such a transformation is forbidden in ideal magnetohydrodynamics but can occur in the process of magnetic field line reconnection. The final magnetic configuration to which the system evolves is shown to contain no separatrices connecting the null lines.     

The role of zooxanthellae in the thermal tolerance of corals: a 'nugget of hope' for coral reefs in an era of climate change

The ability of coral reefs to survive the projected increases in temperature due to global warming will depend largely on the ability of corals to adapt or acclimatize to increased temperature extremes over the next few decades. Many coral species are highly sensitive to temperature stress and the number of stress (bleaching) episodes has increased in recent decades. We investigated the acclimatization potential of Acropora millepora, a common and widespread Indo-Pacific hard coral species, through transplantation and experimental manipulation. We show that adult corals, at least in some circumstances, are capable of acquiring increased thermal tolerance and that the increased tolerance is a direct result of a change in the symbiont type dominating their tissues from Symbiodinium type C to D. Our data suggest that the change in symbiont type in our experiment was due to a shuffling of existing types already present in coral tissues, not through exogenous uptake from the environment. The level of increased tolerance gained by the corals changing their dominant symbiont type to D (the most thermally resistant type known) is around 1-1.5 degrees C. This is the first study to show that thermal acclimatization is causally related to symbiont type and provides new insight into the ecological advantage of corals harbouring mixed algal populations. While this increase is of huge ecological significance for many coral species, in the absence of other mechanisms of thermal acclimatization/adaptation, it may not be sufficient to survive climate change under predicted sea surface temperature scenarios over the next 100 years. However, it may be enough to 'buy time' while greenhouse reduction measures are put in place.     

Stability of genetic variance and covariance for reproductive characters in the face of climate change in a wild bird population

Global warming has had numerous effects on populations of animals and plants, with many species in temperate regions experiencing environmental change at unprecedented rates. Populations with low potential for adaptive evolutionary change and plasticity will have little chance of persistence in the face of environmental change. Assessment of the potential for adaptive evolution requires the estimation of quantitative genetic parameters, but it is as yet unclear what impact, if any, global warming will have on the expression of genetic variances and covariances. Here we assess the impact of a changing climate on the genetic architecture underlying three reproductive traits in a wild bird population. We use a large, long-term, data set collected on great tits (Parus major) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, and an 'animal model' approach to quantify the heritability of, and genetic correlations among, laying date, clutch size and egg mass during two periods with contrasting temperature conditions over a 40-year period (1965-1988 [cooler] vs. 1989-2004 [warmer]). We found significant additive genetic variance and heritability for all traits under both temperature regimes. We also found significant negative genetic covariances and correlations between clutch size and egg weight during both periods, and among laying date and clutch size in the colder years only. The overall G matrix comparison among periods, however, showed only a minor difference among periods, thus suggesting that genotype by environment interactions are negligible in this context. Our results therefore suggest that despite substantial changes in temperature and in mean laying date phenotype over the last decades, and despite the large sample sizes available, we are unable to detect any significant change in the genetic architecture of the reproductive traits studied.     

Amphibian phylogenetic diversity in the face of future climate change: not so good news for the chilean biodiversity hotspot

Biodiversity and Conservation - Climate change is projected to be the most extensive human-induced disturbance to occur on natural ecosystems, inducing changes in different biodiversity features...     

Range retractions and extinction in the face of climate warming

Until recently, published evidence for the responses of species to climate change had revealed more examples of species expanding than retracting their distributions. However, recent papers on butterflies and frogs now show that population-level and species-level extinctions are occurring. The relative lack of previous information about range retractions and extinctions appears to stem, at least partly, from a failure to survey the distributions of species at sufficiently fine resolution to detect declines, and from a failure to attribute such declines to climate change. The new evidence suggests that climate-driven extinctions and range retractions are already widespread.     

A bright spot analysis of inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change: learning about adaptation from small successes

Inland recreational fisheries have social, economic, and ecological importance worldwide but these fisheries are increasingly challenged by the diverse effects of climate change. Coupled with other anthropogenic stressors, climate change has contributed to declines in freshwater biodiversity of greater severity than those observed across marine or terrestrial taxa. At a macro level, inland fisheries are experiencing declines. There are, however, a number of success stories, or ‘bright spots,’ in inland recreational fisheries management, where innovative approaches are leading to increases in social and ecological well-being in the face of climate change. Cases such as these are important sources of inspiration and learning about adaptation to climate and environmental change. In this article, we analyze 11 examples of such ‘bright spots’ drawn from multiple jurisdictions around the world from which we extracted lessons that might apply to fisheries management challenges beyond the region and context of each case. Collectively, these bright spots highlight adaptive initiatives that allow for recreational fisheries management to mitigate to stressors associated with current and future climate change. Examples identified include community-based restoration projects, collaborative and adaptive approaches to short-term fisheries closures, transdisciplinary large-scale conservation projects, and conservation-minded efforts by individuals and communities. By highlighting examples of ‘small wins’ within inland recreational fisheries management, this review contributes to the idea that a ‘positive future’ for inland recreational fisheries in the face of climate change is possible and highlights potential strategies to adapt to current and future climate scenarios.