The concordance of gene trees and species trees at two linked loci

The gene genealogies of two linked loci in three species are analyzed using a series of Markov chain models. We calculate the probability that the gene tree of one locus is concordant with the species tree, given that the gene tree of the other locus is concordant. We define a threshold value of the recombination rate, r*, to be the rate for which the difference between the conditional probability of concordance and its asymptotic value is reduced to 5% of the initial difference. We find that, although r* depends in a complicated way on the times of speciation and effective population sizes, it is always relatively small, <10/N4, where N4 is the effective size of the species represented by the internal branch of the species tree. Consequently, the concordance of gene trees of neutral loci with the species tree is expected to be on roughly the same length scale on the chromosome as the extent of significant linkage disequilibrium within species unless the effective size of contemporary populations is very different from the effective sizes of their ancestral populations. Both balancing selection and selective sweeps can result in much longer genomic regions having concordant gene trees.     

Testing for ancient admixture between closely related populations

One enduring question in evolutionary biology is the extent of archaic admixture in the genomes of present-day populations. In this paper, we present a test for ancient admixture that exploits the asymmetry in the frequencies of the two nonconcordant gene trees in a three-population tree. This test was first applied to detect interbreeding between Neandertals and modern humans. We derive the analytic expectation of a test statistic, called the D statistic, which is sensitive to asymmetry under alternative demographic scenarios. We show that the D statistic is insensitive to some demographic assumptions such as ancestral population sizes and requires only the assumption that the ancestral populations were randomly mating. An important aspect of D statistics is that they can be used to detect archaic admixture even when no archaic sample is available. We explore the effect of sequencing error on the false-positive rate of the test for admixture, and we show how to estimate the proportion of archaic ancestry in the genomes of present-day populations. We also investigate a model of subdivision in ancestral populations that can result in D statistics that indicate recent admixture.     

The probability of topological concordance of gene trees and species trees

The concordance of gene trees and species trees is reconsidered in detail, allowing for samples of arbitrary size to be taken from the species. A sense of concordance for gene tree and species tree topologies is clarified, such that if the "collapsed gene tree" produced by a gene tree has the same topology as the species tree, the gene tree is said to be topologically concordant with the species tree. The term speciodendric is introduced to refer to genes whose trees are topologically concordant with species trees. For a given three-species topology, probabilities of each of the three possible collapsed gene tree topologies are given, as are probabilities of monophyletic concordance and concordance in the sense of N. Takahata (1989), Genetics 122, 957-966. Increasing the sample size is found to increase the probability of topological concordance, but a limit exists on how much the topological concordance probability can be increased. Suggested sample sizes beyond which this probability can be increased only minimally are given. The results are discussed in terms of implications for molecular studies of phylogenetics and speciation.     

Multilocus phylogenetics of a rapid radiation in the genus Thomomys (Rodentia: Geomyidae)

Species complexes undergoing rapid radiation present a challenge in molecular systematics because of the possibility that ancestral polymorphism is retained in component gene trees. Coalescent theory has demonstrated that gene trees often fail to match lineage trees when taxon divergence times are less than the ancestral effective population sizes. Suggestions to increase the number of loci and the number of individuals per taxon have been proposed; however, phylogenetic methods to adequately analyze these data in a coalescent framework are scarce. We compare two approaches to estimating lineage (species) trees using multiple individuals and multiple loci: the commonly used partitioned Bayesian analysis of concatenated sequences and a modification of a newly developed hierarchical Bayesian method (BEST) that simultaneously estimates gene trees and species trees from multilocus data. We test these approaches on a phylogeny of rapidly radiating species wherein divergence times are likely to be smaller than effective population sizes, and incomplete lineage sorting is known, in the rodent genus, Thomomys. We use seven independent noncoding nuclear sequence loci (total approximately 4300 bp) and between 1 and 12 individuals per taxon to construct a phylogenetic hypothesis for eight Thomomys species. The majority-rule consensus tree from the partitioned concatenated analysis included 14 strongly supported bipartitions, corroborating monophyletic species status of five of the eight named species. The BEST tree strongly supported only the split between the two subgenera and showed very low support for any other clade. Comparison of both lineage trees to individual gene trees revealed that the concatenation method appears to ignore conflicting signals among gene trees, whereas the BEST tree considers conflicting signals and downweights support for those nodes. Bayes factor analysis of posterior tree distributions from both analyses strongly favor the model underlying the BEST analysis. This comparison underscores the risks of overreliance on results from concatenation, and ignoring the properties of coalescence, especially in cases of recent, rapid radiations.     

Bayes estimation of species divergence times and ancestral population sizes using DNA sequences from multiple loci

The effective population sizes of ancestral as well as modern species are important parameters in models of population genetics and human evolution. The commonly used method for estimating ancestral population sizes, based on counting mismatches between the species tree and the inferred gene trees, is highly biased as it ignores uncertainties in gene tree reconstruction. In this article, we develop a Bayes method for simultaneous estimation of the species divergence times and current and ancestral population sizes. The method uses DNA sequence data from multiple loci and extracts information about conflicts among gene tree topologies and coalescent times to estimate ancestral population sizes. The topology of the species tree is assumed known. A Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm is implemented to integrate over uncertain gene trees and branch lengths (or coalescence times) at each locus as well as species divergence times. The method can handle any species tree and allows different numbers of sequences at different loci. We apply the method to published noncoding DNA sequences from the human and the great apes. There are strong correlations between posterior estimates of speciation times and ancestral population sizes. With the use of an informative prior for the human-chimpanzee divergence date, the population size of the common ancestor of the two species is estimated to be approximately 20,000, with a 95% credibility interval (8000, 40,000). Our estimates, however, are affected by model assumptions as well as data quality. We suggest that reliable estimates have yet to await more data and more realistic models.     

Maximum tree: a consistent estimator of the species tree

We propose a model based approach to use multiple gene trees to estimate the species tree. The coalescent process requires that gene divergences occur earlier than species divergences when there is any polymorphism in the ancestral species. Under this scenario, speciation times are restricted to be smaller than the corresponding gene split times. The maximum tree (MT) is the tree with the largest possible speciation times in the space of species trees restricted by available gene trees. If all populations have the same population size, the MT is the maximum likelihood estimate of the species tree. It can be shown the MT is a consistent estimator of the species tree even when the MT is built upon the estimates of the true gene trees if the gene tree estimates are statistically consistent. The MT converges in probability to the true species tree at an exponential rate.     

Species tree estimation and the historical biogeography of heroine cichlids

Heroine cichlids are major components of the fish faunas in both Central America and the Caribbean. To examine the evolutionary patterns of how cichlids colonized both of these regions, we reconstructed the phylogenetic relationships among 23 cichlid lineages. We used three phylogenetically novel nuclear markers (Dystropin b, Myomesin1, and Wnt7b) in combination with sequence data from seven other gene regions (Nd2, Rag1, Enc1, Sreb2, Ptr, Plagl2, and Zic1) to elucidate the species tree of these cichlids. The species examined represent major heroine lineages in South America, Central America, and the Greater Antilles. The individual gene trees of these groups were topologically quite discordant. Therefore, we combined the genetic partitions and inferred the species tree using both concatenation and a coalescent-based Bayesian method. The two resulting phylogenetic topologies were largely concordant but differed in two fundamental ways. First, more nodes in the concatenated tree were supported with substantial or 100% Bayesian posterior support than in the coalescent-based tree. Second, there was a minor, but biogeographically critical, topological difference between the concatenated and coalescent-based trees. Nevertheless, both analyses recovered topologies consistent with the Greater Antillean heroines being phylogenetically nested within the largely Central American heroine radiation. This study suggests that reconstructions of cichlid phylogeny and historical biogeography should account for the vagaries of individual gene histories.     

Likelihood and Bayes estimation of ancestral population sizes in hominoids using data from multiple loci

Polymorphisms in an ancestral population can cause conflicts between gene trees and the species tree. Such conflicts can be used to estimate ancestral population sizes when data from multiple loci are available. In this article I extend previous work for estimating ancestral population sizes to analyze sequence data from three species under a finite-site nucleotide substitution model. Both maximum-likelihood (ML) and Bayes methods are implemented for joint estimation of the two speciation dates and the two population size parameters. Both methods account for uncertainties in the gene tree due to few informative sites at each locus and make an efficient use of information in the data. The Bayes algorithm using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) enjoys a computational advantage over ML and also provides a framework for incorporating prior information about the parameters. The methods are applied to a data set of 53 nuclear noncoding contigs from human, chimpanzee, and gorilla published by Chen and Li. Estimates of the effective population size for the common ancestor of humans and chimpanzees by both ML and Bayes methods are approximately 12,000-21,000, comparable to estimates for modern humans, and do not support the notion of a dramatic size reduction in early human populations. Estimates published previously from the same data are several times larger and appear to be biased due to methodological deficiency. The divergence between humans and chimpanzees is dated at approximately 5.2 million years ago and the gorilla divergence 1.1-1.7 million years earlier. The analysis suggests that typical data sets contain useful information about the ancestral population sizes and that it is advantageous to analyze data of several species simultaneously.     

Comparing two Bayesian methods for gene tree/species tree reconstruction: simulations with incomplete lineage sorting and horizontal gene transfer

With the increasing interest in recognizing the discordance between gene genealogies, various gene tree/species tree reconciliation methods have been developed. We present here the first attempt to assess and compare two such Bayesian methods, Bayesian estimation of species trees (BEST) and BUCKy (Bayesian untangling of concordance knots), in the presence of several known processes of gene tree discordance. DNA alignments were simulated under the influence of incomplete lineage sorting (ILS) and of horizontal gene transfer (HGT). BEST and BUCKy both account for uncertainty in gene tree estimation but differ substantially in their assumptions of what caused gene tree discordance. BEST estimates a species tree using the coalescent model, assuming that all gene tree discordance is due to ILS. BUCKy does not assume any specific biological process of gene tree discordance through the use of a nonparametric clustering of concordant genes. BUCKy estimates the concordance factor (CF) of a clade, which is defined as the proportion of genes that truly have the clade in their trees. The estimated concordance tree is then built from clades with the highest estimated CFs. Because of their different assumptions, it was expected that BEST would perform better in the presence of ILS and that BUCKy would perform better in the presence of HGT. As expected, the species tree was more accurately reconstructed by BUCKy in the presence of HGT, when the HGT events were unevenly placed across the species tree. BUCKy and BEST performed similarly in most other cases, including in the presence of strong ILS and of HGT events that were evenly placed across the tree. However, BUCKy was shown to underestimate the uncertainty in CF estimation, with short credibility intervals. Despite this, the discordance pattern estimated by BUCKy could be compared with the signature of ILS. The resulting test for the adequacy of the coalescent model proved to have low Type I error. It was powerful when HGT was the major source of discordance and when HGT events were unevenly placed across the species tree.     

Biogeography, host specificity, and molecular phylogeny of the basidiomycetous yeast Phaffia rhodozyma and its sexual form, Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous

Phaffia rhodozyma (sexual form, Xanthophyllomyces dendrorhous) is a basidiomycetous yeast that has been found in tree exudates in the Northern Hemisphere at high altitudes and latitudes. This yeast produces astaxanthin, a carotenoid pigment with biotechnological importance because it is used in aquaculture for fish pigmentation. We isolated X. dendrorhous from the Southern Hemisphere (Patagonia, Argentina), where it was associated with fruiting bodies of Cyttaria hariotii, an ascomycetous parasite of Nothofagus trees. We compared internal transcribed spacer (ITS)-based phylogenies of P. rhodozyma and its tree host (Betulaceae, Corneaceae, Fagaceae, and Nothofagaceae) and found them to be generally concordant, suggesting that different yeast lineages colonize different trees and providing an explanation for the phylogenetic distance observed between the type strains of P. rhodozyma and X. dendrorhous. We hypothesize that the association of Xanthophyllomyces with Cyttaria derives from a previous association of the yeast with Nothofagus, and the sister relationship between Nothofagaceae and Betulaceae plus Fagaceae correlates with the phylogeny of X. dendrorhous strains originating from these three plant families. The two most basal strains of X. dendrorhous are those isolated from Cornus, an ancestral genus in the phylogenetic analysis of the host trees. Thus, we question previous conclusions that P. rhodozyma and X. dendrorhous represent different species since the polymorphisms detected in the ITS and intergenic spacer sequences can be attributed to intraspecific variation associated with host specificity. Our study provides a deeper understanding of Phaffia biogeography, ecology, and molecular phylogeny. Such knowledge is essential for the comprehension of many aspects of the biology of this organism and will facilitate the study of astaxanthin production within an evolutionary and ecological framework.     

Phylogeny of PgiC gene in Shorea and its closely related genera (Dipterocarpaceae), the dominant trees in Southeast Asian tropical rain forests

Dipterocarpaceae, trees that dominate tropical rain forests in Southeast Asia consist of many economically and ecologically important species. We determined partial sequences of the PgiC gene from species of Shorea, Hopea, Neobalanocarpus, and Parashorea to elucidate phylogenetic relationships among the species of these genera, which have been regarded as interrelated. The sequences generated a gene tree with better resolution than previous cpDNA trees. The PgiC tree is essentially consistent with cpDNA trees, except for the placement of Neobalanocarpus. The PgiC tree shows that Neobalanocarpus is nested within White Meranti of Shorea, whereas this genus forms a clade with Hopea in cpDNA trees. This conflict suggests that Neobalanocarpus is derived via hybridization between White Meranti of Shorea and Hopea. Species belonging to each of three timber groups (Yellow Meranti, Balau, and Red Meranti) within Shorea are monophyletic. Together they form a monophyletic clade distinct from White Meranti. Botanical sections within Red Meranti appear not to be monophyletic. An extensive number of shared polymorphisms among species and consequential lack of monophyly of intraspecific haplotypes are found in Red Meranti. Potential causes of this phenomenon, including persistence of ancestral polymorphisms and gene flow via interspecific hybridization, are discussed.     

TESTING MITOCHONDRIAL CAPTURE AND DEEP COALESCENCE IN AMAZONIAN CICHLID FISHES (CICHLIDAE: CICHLA)

Hybridization and introgression have important consequences in evolution, such as increasing the genetic diversity and adaptive potential of a species. One of their most conspicuous footprints is discordance among gene trees or between genes and phenotypes. However, most studies that report introgression fail to disprove the null hypothesis that genetic incongruence may result from stochastic sorting of ancestral allelic polymorphisms. In the case of ancient introgression, these two processes may be especially difficult to distinguish topologically, but they make different predictions about the patterns of coalescence among loci. Here we apply three methods, molecular dating, multispecies coalescent models, and gene tree simulation under coalescence, to compare these two hypotheses that explain the polyphyletic mtDNA of the butterfly peacock bass, Cichla orinocensis. In comparison with a species tree based on 20 unlinked nuclear loci, we determined that mtDNA divergences were too recent to be explained by ancestral polymorphism. Similarly, coalescent species tree branches were significantly shorter when putative introgressed mtDNA was incorporated, and simulations showed the mtDNA topology to be unlikely under lineage sorting only. We conclude that introgression approximately 1.5 million years ago resulted in capture by C. orinocensis of an mtDNA lineage ancestral to the modern subspecies C. oc. monoculus.     

GeneTRACE-reconstruction of gene content of ancestral species

While current computational methods allow the reconstruction of individual ancestral protein sequences, reconstruction of complete gene content of ancestral species is not yet an established task. In this paper, we describe GENETRACE, an efficient linear-time algorithm that allows the reconstruction of evolutionary history of individual protein families as well as the complete gene content of ancestral species. The performance of the method was validated with a simulated evolution program called SimulEv. Our results indicate that given a set of correct phylogenetic profiles and a correct species tree, ancestral gene content can be reconstructed with sensitivity and selectivity of more than 90%. SimulEv simulations were also used to evaluate performance of the reconstruction of gene content-based phylogenetic trees, suggesting that these trees may be accurate at the terminal branches but suffer from long branch attraction near the root of the tree.     

Gene tree parsimony of multilocus snake venom protein families reveals species tree conflict as a result of multiple parallel gene loss

The proliferation of gene data from multiple loci of large multigene families has been greatly facilitated by considerable recent advances in sequence generation. The evolution of such gene families, which often undergo complex histories and different rates of change, combined with increases in sequence data, pose complex problems for traditional phylogenetic analyses, and in particular, those that aim to successfully recover species relationships from gene trees. Here, we implement gene tree parsimony analyses on multicopy gene family data sets of snake venom proteins for two separate groups of taxa, incorporating Bayesian posterior distributions as a rigorous strategy to account for the uncertainty present in gene trees. Gene tree parsimony largely failed to infer species trees congruent with each other or with species phylogenies derived from mitochondrial and single-copy nuclear sequences. Analysis of four toxin gene families from a large expressed sequence tag data set from the viper genus Echis failed to produce a consistent topology, and reanalysis of a previously published gene tree parsimony data set, from the family Elapidae, suggested that species tree topologies were predominantly unsupported. We suggest that gene tree parsimony failure in the family Elapidae is likely the result of unequal and/or incomplete sampling of paralogous genes and demonstrate that multiple parallel gene losses are likely responsible for the significant species tree conflict observed in the genus Echis. These results highlight the potential for gene tree parsimony analyses to be undermined by rapidly evolving multilocus gene families under strong natural selection.     

Coalescent methods for estimating species trees from phylogenomic data

Genome-scale sequence data have become increasingly available in the phylogenetic studies for understanding the evolutionary histories of species. However, it is challenging to develop probabilistic models to account for heterogeneity of phylogenomic data. The multispecies coalescent model describes gene trees as independent random variables generated from a coalescence process occurring along the lineages of the species tree. Since the multispecies coalescent model allows gene trees to vary across genes, coalescent-based methods have been popularly used to account for heterogeneous gene trees in phylogenomic data analysis. In this paper, we summarize and evaluate the performance of coalescent-based methods for estimating species trees from genome-scale sequence data. We investigate the effects of deep coalescence and mutation on the performance of species tree estimation methods. We found that the coalescent-based methods perform well in estimating species trees for a large number of genes, regardless of the degree of deep coalescence and mutation. The performance of the coalescent methods is negatively correlated with the lengths of internal branches of the species tree.     

Species trees from gene trees: reconstructing Bayesian posterior distributions of a species phylogeny using estimated gene tree distributions

The desire to infer the evolutionary history of a group of species should be more viable now that a considerable amount of multilocus molecular data is available. However, the current molecular phylogenetic paradigm still reconstructs gene trees to represent the species tree. Further, commonly used methods of combining data, such as the concatenation method, are known to be inconsistent in some circumstances. In this paper, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the phylogeny of a group of species using multiple estimated gene tree distributions, such as those that arise in a Bayesian analysis of DNA sequence data. Our model employs substitution models used in traditional phylogenetics but also uses coalescent theory to explain genealogical signals from species trees to gene trees and from gene trees to sequence data, thereby forming a complete stochastic model to estimate gene trees, species trees, ancestral population sizes, and species divergence times simultaneously. Our model is founded on the assumption that gene trees, even of unlinked loci, are correlated due to being derived from a single species tree and therefore should be estimated jointly. We apply the method to two multilocus data sets of DNA sequences. The estimates of the species tree topology and divergence times appear to be robust to the prior of the population size, whereas the estimates of effective population sizes are sensitive to the prior used in the analysis. These analyses also suggest that the model is superior to the concatenation method in fitting these data sets and thus provides a more realistic assessment of the variability in the distribution of the species tree that may have produced the molecular information at hand. Future improvements of our model and algorithm should include consideration of other factors that can cause discordance of gene trees and species trees, such as horizontal transfer or gene duplication.     

iGLASS: an improvement to the GLASS method for estimating species trees from gene trees

Several methods have been designed to infer species trees from gene trees while taking into account gene tree/species tree discordance. Although some of these methods provide consistent species tree topology estimates under a standard model, most either do not estimate branch lengths or are computationally slow. An exception, the GLASS method of Mossel and Roch, is consistent for the species tree topology, estimates branch lengths, and is computationally fast. However, GLASS systematically overestimates divergence times, leading to biased estimates of species tree branch lengths. By assuming a multispecies coalescent model in which multiple lineages are sampled from each of two taxa at L independent loci, we derive the distribution of the waiting time until the first interspecific coalescence occurs between the two taxa, considering all loci and measuring from the divergence time. We then use the mean of this distribution to derive a correction to the GLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times. We show that our improved estimator, which we call iGLASS, consistently estimates the divergence time between a pair of taxa as the number of loci approaches infinity, and that it is an unbiased estimator of divergence times when one lineage is sampled per taxon. We also show that many commonly used clustering methods can be combined with the iGLASS estimator of pairwise divergence times to produce a consistent estimator of the species tree topology. Through simulations, we show that iGLASS can greatly reduce the bias and mean squared error in obtaining estimates of divergence times in a species tree.     

The probability of a gene tree topology within a phylogenetic network with applications to hybridization detection

Gene tree topologies have proven a powerful data source for various tasks, including species tree inference and species delimitation. Consequently, methods for computing probabilities of gene trees within species trees have been developed and widely used in probabilistic inference frameworks. All these methods assume an underlying multispecies coalescent model. However, when reticulate evolutionary events such as hybridization occur, these methods are inadequate, as they do not account for such events. Methods that account for both hybridization and deep coalescence in computing the probability of a gene tree topology currently exist for very limited cases. However, no such methods exist for general cases, owing primarily to the fact that it is currently unknown how to compute the probability of a gene tree topology within the branches of a phylogenetic network. Here we present a novel method for computing the probability of gene tree topologies on phylogenetic networks and demonstrate its application to the inference of hybridization in the presence of incomplete lineage sorting. We reanalyze a Saccharomyces species data set for which multiple analyses had converged on a species tree candidate. Using our method, though, we show that an evolutionary hypothesis involving hybridization in this group has better support than one of strict divergence. A similar reanalysis on a group of three Drosophila species shows that the data is consistent with hybridization. Further, using extensive simulation studies, we demonstrate the power of gene tree topologies at obtaining accurate estimates of branch lengths and hybridization probabilities of a given phylogenetic network. Finally, we discuss identifiability issues with detecting hybridization, particularly in cases that involve extinction or incomplete sampling of taxa.     

Identifying the rooted species tree from the distribution of unrooted gene trees under the coalescent

Gene trees are evolutionary trees representing the ancestry of genes sampled from multiple populations. Species trees represent populations of individuals—each with many genes—splitting into new populations or species. The coalescent process, which models ancestry of gene copies within populations, is often used to model the probability distribution of gene trees given a fixed species tree. This multispecies coalescent model provides a framework for phylogeneticists to infer species trees from gene trees using maximum likelihood or Bayesian approaches. Because the coalescent models a branching process over time, all trees are typically assumed to be rooted in this setting. Often, however, gene trees inferred by traditional phylogenetic methods are unrooted. We investigate probabilities of unrooted gene trees under the multispecies coalescent model. We show that when there are four species with one gene sampled per species, the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the unrooted species tree topology and some, but not all, information in the species tree edges (branch lengths). The location of the root on the species tree is not identifiable in this situation. However, for 5 or more species with one gene sampled per species, we show that the distribution of unrooted gene tree topologies identifies the rooted species tree topology and all its internal branch lengths. The length of any pendant branch leading to a leaf of the species tree is also identifiable for any species from which more than one gene is sampled.     

Estimating species phylogeny from gene-tree probabilities despite incomplete lineage sorting: an example from Melanoplus grasshoppers

Estimating phylogenetic relationships among closely related species can be extremely difficult when there is incongruence among gene trees and between the gene trees and the species tree. Here we show that incorporating a model of the stochastic loss of gene lineages by genetic drift into the phylogenetic estimation procedure can provide a robust estimate of species relationships, despite widespread incomplete sorting of ancestral polymorphism. This approach is applied to a group of montane Melanoplus grasshoppers for which genealogical discordance among loci and incomplete lineage sorting obscures any obvious phylogenetic relationships among species. Unlike traditional treatments where gene trees estimated using standard phylogenetic methods are implicitly equated with the species tree, with the coalescent-based approach the species tree is modeled probabilistically from the estimated gene trees. The estimated species phylogeny (the ESP) is calculated for the grasshoppers from multiple gene trees reconstructed for nuclear loci and a mitochondrial gene. This empirical application is coupled with a simulation study to explore the performance of the coalescent-based approach. Specifically, we test the accuracy of the ESP given the data based on analyses of simulated data matching the multilocus data collected in Melanoplus (i.e., data were simulated for each locus with the same number of base pairs and locus-specific mutational models). The results of the study show that ESPs can be computed using the coalescent-based approach long before reciprocal monophyly has been achieved, and that these statistical estimates are accurate. This contrasts with analyses of the empirical data collected in Melanoplus and simulated data based on concatenation of multiple loci, for which the incomplete lineage sorting of recently diverged species posed significant problems. The strengths and potential challenges associated with incorporating an explicit model of gene-lineage coalescence into the phylogenetic procedure to obtain an ESP, as illustrated by application to Melanoplus, versus concatenation and consensus approaches are discussed. This study represents a fundamental shift in how species relationships are estimated - the relationship between the gene trees and the species phylogeny is modeled probabilistically rather than equating gene trees with a species tree.