Projecting future grassland productivity to assess the sustainability of potential biofuel feedstock areas in the Greater Platte River Basin

This study projects future (e.g., 2050 and 2099) grassland productivities in the Greater Platte River Basin (GPRB) using ecosystem performance (EP, a surrogate for measuring ecosystem productivity) models and future climate projections. The EP models developed from a previous study were based on the satellite vegetation index, site geophysical and biophysical features, and weather and climate drivers. The future climate data used in this study were derived from the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model 3.0 ‘SRES A1B’ (a ‘middle’ emissions path). The main objective of this study is to assess the future sustainability of the potential biofuel feedstock areas identified in a previous study. Results show that the potential biofuel feedstock areas (the more mesic eastern part of the GPRB) will remain productive (i.e., aboveground grassland biomass productivity >2750 kg ha^?1 year^?1) with a slight increasing trend in the future. The spatially averaged EPs for these areas are 3519, 3432, 3557, 3605, 3752, and 3583 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for current site potential (2000–2008 average), 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099, respectively. Therefore, the identified potential biofuel feedstock areas will likely continue to be sustainable for future biofuel development. On the other hand, grasslands identified as having no biofuel potential in the drier western part of the GPRB would be expected to stay unproductive in the future (spatially averaged EPs are 1822, 1691, 1896, 2306, 1994, and 2169 kg ha^?1 year^?1 for site potential, 2020, 2030, 2040, 2050, and 2099). These areas should continue to be unsuitable for biofuel feedstock development in the future. These future grassland productivity estimation maps can help land managers to understand and adapt to the expected changes in future EP in the GPRB and to assess the future sustainability and feasibility of potential biofuel feedstock areas.     

Feeling the future: prospects for a theory of implicit prospection

Mental time travel refers to the ability of an organism to project herself backward and forward in time, using episodic memory and imagination to simulate past and future experiences. The evolution of mental time travel gives humans a unique capacity for prospection: the ability to pre-experience the future. Discussions of mental time travel treat it as an instance of explicit prospection. We argue that implicit simulations of past and future experience can also be used as a way of gaining information about the future to shape preferences and guide behaviour.     

Climate change and the African baobab (Adansonia digitata L.): the need for better conservation strategies

The baobab tree, with more than 300 uses and commercial value in EU and United States, has been identified as one of the most important trees to be conserved and domesticated in Africa. A decline in baobab populations because of changes in climate could have a negative effect on African livelihoods. Therefore, it is important to study the potential future distribution of this species and determine strategies for conservation. We used Maxent, 480 geo‐referenced records, present and future climatic and soil layers. Different general circulation models and scenarios were selected. Models were simulated for (i) All records, (ii) East Africa and (iii) West Africa species records. For each combination, the proportion of the present habitat that might remain suitable in the future was determined. These habitat proportions were compared with the Protected Areas in Africa. Although potential future distributions were different depending on model, scenario and records used, in all cases only a percentage of the present distribution was predicted to remain suitable in the future. Some countries were found to have no suitable habitat in the future. Recommendations for different conservation strategies include in situ conservation in Protected Areas; ex situ conservation in seed banks; and conservation through ‘sustainable utilization’.     

Predicting the future of forests in the Mediterranean under climate change,with niche‐ and process‐based models: CO2 matters!

Assessing the potential future of current forest stands is a key to design conservation strategies and understanding potential future impacts to ecosystem service supplies. This is particularly true in the Mediterranean basin, where important future climatic changes are expected. Here, we assess and compare two commonly used modeling approaches (niche‐ and process‐based models) to project the future of current stands of three forest species with contrasting distributions, using regionalized climate for continental Spain. Results highlight variability in model ability to estimate current distributions, and the inherent large uncertainty involved in making projections into the future. CO₂ fertilization through projected increased atmospheric CO₂ concentrations is shown to increase forest productivity in the mechanistic process‐based model (despite increased drought stress) by up to three times that of the non‐CO₂ fertilization scenario by the period 2050–2080, which is in stark contrast to projections of reduced habitat suitability from the niche‐based models by the same period. This highlights the importance of introducing aspects of plant biogeochemistry into current niche‐based models for a realistic projection of future species distributions. We conclude that the future of current Mediterranean forest stands is highly uncertain and suggest that a new synergy between niche‐ and process‐based models is urgently needed in order to improve our predictive ability.     

The impairment argument for the immorality of abortion revisited

Eric Vogelstein has defended Don Marquis' ‘future-like-ours' argument for the immorality of abortion against what is known as the Identity Objection, which contends that for a fetus to have a future like ours, it must be numerically identical to an entity like us that possesses valuable experiences some time in the future. On psychological accounts of personal identity, there is no identity relationship between the fetus and the entity with valuable experiences that it will become. Vogelstein maintains that a non-sentient fetus nonetheless has a future like ours because it is numerically identical with a future organism that has a mind that bears valuable experiences. Skott Brill, drawing on Jeff McMahan's embodied mind account, denies that human organisms directly have experiences, claiming that they only have experiences derivatively by virtue of their thinking part, and the loss of a future like ours is not transferred to the organism. I show that on McMahan's account, a strong case can be made for the organism having experiences directly, and the subject having these experiences derivatively. This negates Brill's reasoning, although it does imply that non-sentient fetuses do not have a future like ours in quite the same way as we do. I conclude that this is not problematic for Marquis' argument.     

Motor and Linguistic Linking of Space and Time in the Cerebellum

Background

Recent literature documented the presence of spatial-temporal interactions in the human brain. The aim of the present study was to verify whether representation of past and future is also mapped onto spatial representations and whether the cerebellum may be a neural substrate for linking space and time in the linguistic domain. We asked whether processing of the tense of a verb is influenced by the space where response takes place and by the semantics of the verb.

Principal Findings

Responses to past tense were facilitated in the left space while responses to future tense were facilitated in the right space. Repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) of the right cerebellum selectively slowed down responses to future tense of action verbs; rTMS of both cerebellar hemispheres decreased accuracy of responses to past tense in the left space and to future tense in the right space for non-verbs, and to future tense in the right space for state verbs.

Conclusions

The results suggest that representation of past and future is mapped onto spatial formats and that motor action could represent the link between spatial and temporal dimensions. Right cerebellar, left motor brain networks could be part of the prospective brain, whose primary function is to use past experiences to anticipate future events. Both cerebellar hemispheres could play a role in establishing the grammatical rules for verb conjugation.     

Tests of planning and the Bischof-Köhler hypothesis in rhesus monkeys (Macaca mulatta)

The Bischof-Köhler hypothesis posits that nonhuman animals cannot plan for future motivational states that differ from a current state. [Naqshbandi, M., Roberts, W.A., 2006. Anticipation of future events in squirrel monkeys Samiri scireus and rats Rattus norvegicus: tests of the Bischof-Köhler hypothesis. J. Comp. Psychol. 120, 345–357] found that two squirrel monkeys that were not thirsty at the time of choice reversed their preference for a larger amount of food when choice of a smaller amount alleviated future thirst. This apparent anticipation of future thirst contradicts the Bischof-Köhler hypothesis. We used the methods described by Naqshbandi and Roberts with rhesus monkey subjects and found that the monkeys did not alter their behavior in anticipation of future thirst. To assess which factors enhance and inhibit the ability to express planning, we then systematically modified the experimental design in four subsequent experiments and found that monkeys that were not thirsty acted to alleviate future thirst only when the delay between their behavior and the contingent outcome was brief. Taken together these results suggest that the inability of rhesus monkeys to display planning resulted from their inability to learn behavior-outcome associations across long-delay intervals as would be expected from traditional accounts of operant learning, rather than from failure to anticipate future motivational states as posited by the Bischof-Köhler hypothesis.     

Negative ��GHIs,�� the Right to Health Protection, and Future Generations

The argument has been made that future generations of human beings are being harmed unjustifiably by the actions individuals commit today. This paper addresses what it might mean to harm future generations, whether we might harm them, and what our duties toward future generations might be. After introducing the “Global Health Impact” (GHI) concept as a unit of measurement that evaluates the effects of human actions on the health of all organisms, an incomplete theory of human justice is proposed. Having shown that the negative GHIs of our current generation cause unfair harm to future generations, I argue that each human being must be allocated a fair threshold of negative GHIs that should not be exceeded. By emphasising the need to consider all the GHIs of human actions, the theory of human justice developed here is highly relevant to evaluate human actions that might affect future generations, for example those related to climate change.     

The future of future-oriented cognition in non-humans: theory and the empirical case of the great apes

One of the most contested areas in the field of animal cognition is non-human future-oriented cognition. We critically examine key underlying assumptions in the debate, which is mainly preoccupied with certain dichotomous positions, the most prevalent being whether or not ‘real’ future orientation is uniquely human. We argue that future orientation is a theoretical construct threatening to lead research astray. Cognitive operations occur in the present moment and can be influenced only by prior causation and the environment, at the same time that most appear directed towards future outcomes. Regarding the current debate, future orientation becomes a question of where on various continua cognition becomes ‘truly’ future-oriented. We question both the assumption that episodic cognition is the most important process in future-oriented cognition and the assumption that future-oriented cognition is uniquely human. We review the studies on future-oriented cognition in the great apes to find little doubt that our closest relatives possess such ability. We conclude by urging that future-oriented cognition not be viewed as expression of some select set of skills. Instead, research into future-oriented cognition should be approached more like research into social and physical cognition.     

Forecasting the combined effects of future climate and land use change on the suitable habitat of Davidia involucrata Baill

Accurately predicting the future distribution of species is crucial for understanding how species will response to global environmental change and for evaluating the effectiveness of current protected areas (PAs). Here, we assessed the effect of climate and land use change on the projected suitable habitats of Davidia involucrata Baill under different future scenarios using the following two types of models: (a) only climate covariates (climate SDMs) and (b) climate and land use covariates (full SDMs). We found that full SDMs perform significantly better than climate SDMs in terms of both AUC (p < .001) and TSS (p < .001) and also projected more suitable habitat than climate SDMs both in the whole study area and in its current suitable range, although D. involucrate is predicted to loss at least 26.96% of its suitable area under all future scenarios. Similarly, we found that these range contractions projected by climate SDMs would negate the effectiveness of current PAs to a greater extent relative to full SDMs. These results suggest that although D. involucrate is extremely vulnerability to future climate change, conservation intervention to manage habitat may be an effective option to offset some of the negative effects of a changing climate on D. involucrate and can improve the effectiveness of current PAs. Overall, this study highlights the necessity of integrating climate and land use change to project the future distribution of species.     

Natural variation and the capacity to adapt to ocean acidification in the keystone sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus

A rapidly growing body of literature documents the potential negative effects of CO₂‐driven ocean acidification (OA) on marine organisms. However, nearly all this work has focused on the effects of future conditions on modern populations, neglecting the role of adaptation. Rapid evolution can alter demographic responses to environmental change, ultimately affecting the likelihood of population persistence, but the capacity for adaptation will differ among populations and species. Here, we measure the capacity of the ecologically important purple sea urchin Strongylocentrotus purpuratus to adapt to OA, using a breeding experiment to estimate additive genetic variance for larval size (an important component of fitness) under future high‐pCO₂/low‐pH conditions. Although larvae reared under future conditions were smaller than those reared under present‐day conditions, we show that there is also abundant genetic variation for body size under elevated pCO₂, indicating that this trait can evolve. The observed heritability of size was 0.40 ± 0.32 (95% CI) under low pCO₂, and 0.50 ± 0.30 under high‐pCO₂ conditions. Accounting for the observed genetic variation in models of future larval size and demographic rates substantially alters projections of performance for this species in the future ocean. Importantly, our model shows that after incorporating the effects of adaptation, the OA‐driven decrease in population growth rate is up to 50% smaller, than that predicted by the ‘no‐adaptation’ scenario. Adults used in the experiment were collected from two sites on the coast of the Northeast Pacific that are characterized by different pH regimes, as measured by autonomous sensors. Comparing results between sites, we also found subtle differences in larval size under high‐pCO₂ rearing conditions, consistent with local adaptation to carbonate chemistry in the field. These results suggest that spatially varying selection may help to maintain genetic variation necessary for adaptation to future OA.     

Remembering the past to imagine the future: the prospective brain

A rapidly growing number of recent studies show that imagining the future depends on much of the same neural machinery that is needed for remembering the past. These findings have led to the concept of the prospective brain; an idea that a crucial function of the brain is to use stored information to imagine, simulate and predict possible future events. We suggest that processes such as memory can be productively re-conceptualized in light of this idea.     

Reproduction under predation risk and the trade-off between current and future reproduction in the threespine stickleback

An increasing number of studies show that animals adjust their reproductive effort to the risk of predation. However, to maximize lifetime reproductive success this adjustment should depend on the animals'' current and future reproductive potential. Here I tested this hypothesis by allowing threespine stickleback males (Gasterosteus aculeatus), differing in current and future mating probabilities, to reproduce in pools in both the presence and absence of predators. As expected, males adjusted their reproductive effort to the risk of predation. Fewer males bred, and all males developed less nuptial coloration in the presence of predators. However, males with a low current mating probability took less risk than males with a higher mating probability, whereas all males increased risk taking when future reproductive opportunities decreased. The results thus support the hypothesis that males are able to assess both the risk of predation and their current versus future mating probability, and adjust their reproductive decisions accordingly. The study further suggests that predation risk may have less effect on sexual selection than previously assumed, as the males which refrained from reproducing in the presence of predators were mainly males with a low mating probability.     

Past and future climate-driven shifts in the distribution of a warm-adapted bird species,the European Roller Coracias garrulus

ABSTRACT

Capsule: The distribution range of the European Roller Coracias garrulus has undergone large changes over geological times, but although the species is warm-adapted, the human induced climate change is predicted to affect negatively the range of the currently large populations.

Aim: Information on species-specific vulnerability to climate change is crucial not only for designing interventions and setting conservation goals, but also to inform conservation decision-making. Our goal was to map climate suitability for the European Roller in the Western Palaearctic under current climate, and for past (last glacial maximum and mid-Holocene) and future (2050 and 2070) climate scenarios.

Methods: We used MaxEnt for species distribution modelling based on the reconstructed distribution map of the species.

Results: Our results suggest that during glacial periods Rollers persisted in small southern refugia, and then spread and colonized northern latitudes during the mid-Holocene. In the future, our models forecast a shift in climatically suitable range towards northern latitudes and an overall small range contraction (4.5–5.5%). Warmer temperatures will increase climate suitability in northern countries where the species is currently declining or became locally extinct. On the other hand, wide suitable areas under current climatic conditions are predicted to become unsuitable in the future (35–38% by 2050 and 2070, respectively), significantly impacting large populations such as those in Romania, Spain, Bulgaria and Hungary. French and Italian populations are identified to be future key populations for Roller conservation.

Conclusions: Our findings suggest that future climate changes will likely amplify the impacts of existing threats on the majority of large European Roller populations in Europe.     

Predicting the distributions of predator (snow leopard) and prey (blue sheep) under climate change in the Himalaya

Future climate change is likely to affect distributions of species, disrupt biotic interactions, and cause spatial incongruity of predator–prey habitats. Understanding the impacts of future climate change on species distribution will help in the formulation of conservation policies to reduce the risks of future biodiversity losses. Using a species distribution modeling approach by MaxEnt, we modeled current and future distributions of snow leopard (Panthera uncia) and its common prey, blue sheep (Pseudois nayaur), and observed the changes in niche overlap in the Nepal Himalaya. Annual mean temperature is the major climatic factor responsible for the snow leopard and blue sheep distributions in the energy‐deficient environments of high altitudes. Currently, about 15.32% and 15.93% area of the Nepal Himalaya are suitable for snow leopard and blue sheep habitats, respectively. The bioclimatic models show that the current suitable habitats of both snow leopard and blue sheep will be reduced under future climate change. The predicted suitable habitat of the snow leopard is decreased when blue sheep habitats is incorporated in the model. Our climate‐only model shows that only 11.64% (17,190 km²) area of Nepal is suitable for the snow leopard under current climate and the suitable habitat reduces to 5,435 km² (reduced by 24.02%) after incorporating the predicted distribution of blue sheep. The predicted distribution of snow leopard reduces by 14.57% in 2030 and by 21.57% in 2050 when the predicted distribution of blue sheep is included as compared to 1.98% reduction in 2030 and 3.80% reduction in 2050 based on the climate‐only model. It is predicted that future climate may alter the predator–prey spatial interaction inducing a lower degree of overlap and a higher degree of mismatch between snow leopard and blue sheep niches. This suggests increased energetic costs of finding preferred prey for snow leopards – a species already facing energetic constraints due to the limited dietary resources in its alpine habitat. Our findings provide valuable information for extension of protected areas in future.     

Assessment Strategies and the Effects of Fighting Experience on Future Contest Performance in the Green Anole (Anolis carolinensis)

Social experiences can be useful sources of information for animals charged with making fitness‐related decisions. Fighting experience can alter an animal's perception of its fighting ability possibly leading to changes in future contest decisions, which may increase/decrease their probability of winning future contests. Winner and loser effects have been revealed in a wide array of animals, but studies using reptilian models are rare. This study investigated the impact of fighting experience on future contest performance and outcome in the green anole lizard and investigated the assessment strategies used by anoles during contests of different intensities. To determine whether the green anole expresses winner or loser effects, focal animals engaged in a primary contest with a smaller (larger) opponent to gain a winning (losing) experience; opponent size asymmetries were a significant predictor of contest outcome. Focal individuals were isolated for 2 d before being given a secondary contest with a size‐matched, naïve opponent. We found no evidence of winner or loser effects 2 d following a previous contest. Although previous contest outcome did not dictate future contest success, dynamics of the previous contest did. Highly aggressive primary contest losers won a significant proportion of the secondary contests, while less aggressive losers were more apt to lose the secondary contest. Secondary contest success of prior winners was not influenced by earlier contest performance. Further analyses of contest dynamics reveal that individuals may use different assessment strategies depending on the intensity of the contest. Our results demonstrate that future contest success may be driven more by individual performance in a prior contest and less by prior contest outcome.     

Temporal Effects in Trend Prediction: Identifying the Most Popular Nodes in the Future

Prediction is an important problem in different science domains. In this paper, we focus on trend prediction in complex networks, i.e. to identify the most popular nodes in the future. Due to the preferential attachment mechanism in real systems, nodes’ recent degree and cumulative degree have been successfully applied to design trend prediction methods. Here we took into account more detailed information about the network evolution and proposed a temporal-based predictor (TBP). The TBP predicts the future trend by the node strength in the weighted network with the link weight equal to its exponential aging. Three data sets with time information are used to test the performance of the new method. We find that TBP have high general accuracy in predicting the future most popular nodes. More importantly, it can identify many potential objects with low popularity in the past but high popularity in the future. The effect of the decay speed in the exponential aging on the results is discussed in detail.     

Forecasting the fate of high mountain ponds in the Andean region under future climate change

The aims of this study are (i) to identify areas in the Andean region where the climate will remain stable enough for the survival of the study species; (ii) to analyze how climate change will affect these areas under different climate scenarios; (iii) to generate spatially explicit predictive maps of the expansion or retraction of these areas; and (iv) based on this information, to identify areas with priority for conservation. The analysis was performed using presence‐only data for 14 Heteroptera and Odonata species. Current and future models were developed to identify areas where the climate would be suitable for small ponds, using Maxent v3.3.3k, with future models based on three different Global Climate Models for the 2050 period (scenarios A2a and B2a). Model performance was evaluated using the jackknife approach. Climatic niche breadth and climatic niche similarities were calculated through Levin's concentration metrics and the I statistic index (implemented in ENMTools), respectively. Maxent logistic outputs were converted into binary presence/absence maps, based on the ‘minimum training presence logistic threshold’, and used to build species richness maps for each condition considered (present and future). Current and future models with areas climatically suitable for small ponds were developed. All the study species proved to be narrow specialists and share similar climatic spaces. Our projections suggest that four of the species would not find suitable climate conditions for survival in the future. The priority area for conservation, where most species would find suitable climate conditions, is located between 33–47°S and 73–70°W. We identified future loss of the priority area towards the east and a small gain towards the north and south. The most probable situation for the year 2050 is a negative precipitation–evapotranspiration balance, and small ponds will probably be very short‐lived or dry completely during summer, suggesting a drastic change in species assemblages and species richness of the region, which could become a hotspot of extinction.     

The fate of Meconopsis species in the Tibeto‐Himalayan region under future climate change

High‐mountain areas such as the Tibeto‐Himalayan region (THR) host cold‐adapted biota expected to be sensitive to anthropogenic climate change. Meconopsis is a representative endangered genus confined to alpine meadow or subnival habitats in the THR. We used climate‐niche factor analysis to study the vulnerability of ten Meconopsis species to climate change, comparing current climate (representative of 1960–1990) to future climate scenarios (2070: average 2061–2080). For these ten Meconopsis species, we then identified potential future climate refugia and determined optimal routes for each species to disperse to the proposed refugia. Our results indicate that for the ten Meconopsis species, the regions with low vulnerability to climate change in the THR are the central Qinghai‐Tibet Plateau, the Hengduan Mountains (HDM), the eastern Himalayas, and the West Qinling Mountain (WQL), and can be considered potential future climate refugia. Under future climate change, we found for the ten Meconopsis species potential dispersal routes to three of the four identified refugia: the HDM, the eastern Himalayas, and the WQL. Our results suggest that past refugia on the THR will also be the future climate refugia for the ten Meconopsis species, and these species may potentially persist in multiple future climate refugia, likely reducing risks from climate change. Furthermore, climate change may affect the threat ranking of Red Listed Species for Meconopsis species, as Least Concern species were estimated to become more vulnerable to climate change than the only Near Threatened species.     

Re-Imagining the Future: Repetition Decreases Hippocampal Involvement in Future Simulation

Imagining or simulating future events has been shown to activate the anterior right hippocampus (RHC) more than remembering past events does. One fundamental difference between simulation and memory is that imagining future scenarios requires a more extensive constructive process than remembering past experiences does. Indeed, studies in which this constructive element is reduced or eliminated by “pre-imagining” events in a prior session do not report differential RHC activity during simulation. In this fMRI study, we examined the effects of repeatedly simulating an event on neural activity. During scanning, participants imagined 60 future events; each event was simulated three times. Activation in the RHC showed a significant linear decrease across repetitions, as did other neural regions typically associated with simulation. Importantly, such decreases in activation could not be explained by non-specific linear time-dependent effects, with no reductions in activity evident for the control task across similar time intervals. Moreover, the anterior RHC exhibited significant functional connectivity with the whole-brain network during the first, but not second and third simulations of future events. There was also evidence of a linear increase in activity across repetitions in right ventral precuneus, right posterior cingulate and left anterior prefrontal cortex, which may reflect source recognition and retrieval of internally generated contextual details. Overall, our findings demonstrate that repeatedly imagining future events has a decremental effect on activation of the hippocampus and many other regions engaged by the initial construction of the simulation, possibly reflecting the decreasing novelty of simulations across repetitions, and therefore is an important consideration in the design of future studies examining simulation.