How much carbon input is required to preserve or increase projected soil organic carbon stocks in German croplands under climate change?

Plant and Soil - Increasing soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks is discussed as negative emission technology with the potential to remove relevant amounts of carbon from the atmosphere. At the same...     

Does conversion of forest to agricultural land change soil carbon and nitrogen? a review of the literature

Soil carbon is a large component of the global carbon cycle and its management can significantly affect the atmospheric CO₂ concentration. An important management issue is the extent of soil carbon (C) release when forest is converted to agricultural land. We reviewed the literature to assess changes in soil C upon conversion of forests to agricultural land. Analyses are confounded by changes in soil bulk density upon land‐use change, with agricultural soils on average having 13% higher bulk density. Consistent with earlier reviews, we found that conversion of forest to cultivated land led to an average loss of approximately 30% of soil C. When we restricted our analysis to studies that had used appropriate corrections for changes in bulk density, soil C loss was 22%. When, from all the studies compiled, we considered only studies reporting both soil C and nitrogen (N), average losses of C and N were 24% and 15%, respectively, hence showing a decrease in the average C : N ratio. The magnitude of these changes in the C : N ratio did not correlate with either C or N changes. When considering the transition from forest to pasture, there was no significant change in either soil C or N, even though reported changes in soil C ranged from ?50% to +160%. Among studies that reported changes in soil N as well as soil C, C : N ratios both increased and decreased, with trends depending on changes in system N. Systems with increasing soil N generally had decreased C : N ratios, whereas systems with decreasing soil N had increased C : N ratios. Our survey confirmed earlier findings that conversion of forest to cropland generally leads to a loss of soil carbon, although the magnitude of change might have been inflated in many studies by the confounding influence of bulk‐density changes. In contrast, conversion of forest to uncultivated grazing land did not, on average, lead to loss of soil carbon, although individual sites may lose or gain soil C, depending on specific circumstances, such as application of fertiliser or retention or removal of plant residues.     

Climatic impact of land use in LCA—carbon transfers between vegetation/soil and air

Background, aim, and scope  

Human use of land areas leads to impacts on nature in several ways. Within the framework of the UNEP/SETAC Life Cycle Initiative, it was stated that life cycle assessment (LCA) of land use should assess at least the impact on biodiversity, the impact on biotic production, and the impact on the regulating functions of the natural environment. This study focuses on the climatic impact of land use as determined by the CO₂ transfers between vegetation/soil and the atmosphere in the course of terrestrial release and re-storage of carbon.     

Meta-comparisons: how to compare methods for LCA?

The International Journal of Life Cycle Assessment - Many methodological papers report a comparison of methods for LCA, for instance comparing different impact assessment systems, or developing...     

Initial soil organic carbon stocks govern changes in soil carbon: Reality or artifact?

Changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage have the potential to affect global climate; hence identifying environments with a high capacity to gain or lose SOC is of broad interest. Many cross-site studies have found that SOC-poor soils tend to gain or retain carbon more readily than SOC-rich soils. While this pattern may partly reflect reality, here we argue that it can also be created by a pair of statistical artifacts. First, soils that appear SOC-poor purely due to random variation will tend to yield more moderate SOC estimates upon resampling and hence will appear to accrue or retain more SOC than SOC-rich soils. This phenomenon is an example of regression to the mean. Second, normalized metrics of SOC change—such as relative rates and response ratios—will by definition show larger changes in SOC at lower initial SOC levels, even when the absolute change in SOC does not depend on initial SOC. These two artifacts create an exaggerated impression that initial SOC stocks are a major control on SOC dynamics. To address this problem, we recommend applying statistical corrections to eliminate the effect of regression to the mean, and avoiding normalized metrics when testing relationships between SOC change and initial SOC. Careful consideration of these issues in future cross-site studies will support clearer scientific inference that can better inform environmental management.     

Efficacy evaluation of anthelmintics: which methods to use in the field?

Efficacy evaluation of anthelmintics is very important even in veterinary practice due to the existence of acquired resistance, poor quality of anthelmintics in several region of the world, and nedds for quarantine strategy prior introduction of new animals. Clearly, flock evaluation can be opposed to individually based evaluations. I propose that individually based evaluations should be preferred in field condition controls: although they are more sophisticated on a statistical basis, the availability of a software for calculations renders the proposal realistic.     

How long before a change in soil organic carbon can be detected?

When planning sampling in an experiment where soil organic carbon (SOC) content is expected to change, it is necessary to know how many samples will need to be taken to demonstrate a change in SOC and after how long this change will be detectable. Much has been published on the number of samples required to demonstrate the minimum detectable difference in SOC, but less on how long it takes for this change to be detectable. In this paper, a model of SOC dynamics is used to estimate the minimum time taken for a change in total SOC content to become measurable under different carbon inputs, land uses and soil types. For free air carbon dioxide enrichment (FACE), and other experiments in which SOC is expected to increase, relationships between the percentage change in C inputs and the time taken to measure a change in SOC are presented, for two levels of sampling intensity corresponding to the maximum that is practically possible in most experiments (～100 samples) and that used regularly in field experiments (10–20 samples). In FACE experiments, where C inputs increase by a maximum of about 20–25%, SOC change could be detected with 90% confidence after about 6–10 years if a sampling regime allowing 3% change in background SOC level (probably requiring a very large number of samples) were used, but could not be detected at all if a sampling regime were used that allowed only a 15% change in background SOC to be detected. If increases in C inputs are much below 15%, it might not be possible to detect a change in soil C without an enormous number of samples. Relationships between the change in C inputs and the time taken to measure a change in SOC are robust over a range of soil types and land uses. The results demonstrate how models of SOC dynamics can be used to complement statistical power analyses for planning when, and how intensively, to sample soils during experiments. An advantage of the modelling approach demonstrated here is that estimates of the minimum time taken for a change in soil carbon to become detectable can be made, even before any detailed soil samples are taken, simply from estimates of the likely increase in carbon inputs to the soil (via expected changes in net primary production).     

The role of nitrogen in climate change and the impacts of nitrogen–climate interactions in the United States: foreword to thematic issue

Producing food, transportation, and energy for seven billion people has led to large and widespread increases in the use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers and fossil fuel combustion, resulting in a leakage of N into the environment as various forms of air and water pollution. The global N cycle is more severely altered by human activity than the global carbon (C) cycle, and reactive N dynamics affect all aspects of climate change considerations, including mitigation, adaptation, and impacts. In this special issue of Biogeochemistry, we present a review of the climate–nitrogen interactions based on a technical report for the United States National Climate Assessment presented as individual papers for terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems, agriculture and human health within the US. We provide a brief overview of each of the paper’s main points and conclusions is presented in this foreword summary.     

Multispecies comparisons of adaptability to climate change: A role for life‐history characteristics?

Phenological advancement allows individuals to adapt to climate change by timing life‐history events to the availability of key resources so that individual fitness is maximized. However, different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates, potentially leading to a phenological mismatch. This may be especially apparent in the highly seasonal arctic environment that is experiencing the effects of climate change more so than any other region. During a 14‐year study near Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological advancement in egg laying in relation to snowmelt for eight arctic‐breeding shorebirds and investigated potential linkages to species‐specific life‐history characteristics. We found that snowmelt advanced 0.8 days/year—six times faster than the prior 60‐year period. During this same time, six of the eight species exhibited phenological advancement in laying dates (varying among species from 0.1 to 0.9 days earlier per year), although no species appeared capable of keeping pace with advancing snowmelt. Phenological changes were likely the result of high phenotypic plasticity, as all species investigated in this study showed high interannual variability in lay dates. Commonality among species with similar response rates to timing of snowmelt suggests that nesting later and having an opportunistic settlement strategy may increase the adaptability of some species to changing climate conditions. Other life‐history characteristics, such as migration strategy, previous site experience, and mate fidelity did not influence the ability of individuals to advance laying dates. As a failure to advance egg laying is likely to result in greater phenological mismatch, our study provides an initial assessment of the relative risk of species to long‐term climatic changes.     

Adapting to global environmental change in Patagonia: What role for disturbance ecology?

Research from the Patagonian‐Andean region is used to explore challenges and opportunities related to the integration of research on wildfire activity into a broader earth‐system science framework that views the biosphere and atmosphere as a coupled interacting system for understanding the causes and consequences of future wildfire activity. We examine how research in disturbance ecology can inform land‐use and other policy decisions in the context of probable future increases in wildfire activity driven by climate forcing. Climate research has related recent warming and drying trends in much of Patagonia to an upward trend in the Southern Annular Mode which is the leading pattern of extratropical climate variability in the southern hemisphere. Although still limited in spatial extent, tree‐ring fire history studies are beginning to reveal regional patterns of the top‐down climate influences on temporal and spatial pattern of wildfire occurrence in Patagonia. Knowledge of relationships of fire activity to climate variability in the context of predicted future warming leads to the hypothesis that wildfire activity in Patagonia will increase substantially during the first half of the 21st century. In addition to this anticipated increase in extreme fire events due to climate forcing, we further hypothesize that current land‐use trends will increase the extent and/or severity of fire events through bottom‐up (i.e. land surface) influences on wildfire potential. In particular, policy discussions of how to mitigate impacts of climate warming on fire potential need to consider research results from disturbance ecology on the implications of continued planting of flammable non‐native trees and the role of introduced herbivores in favouring vegetation changes that may enhance landscape flammability.     

From plains to inselbergs: species in special habitats as indicators for climate change?

Aim This study proposes a process to select plant species that would provide suitable candidates for monitoring climate change impacts in areas where complete biological inventories are lacking. Location Inselberg floras of nine inselberg landscapes (i.e. isolated mountains) in the arid Desert and Nama Karoo biome in Namibia were analysed to develop a selection process. Methods Data from detailed field surveys were summarized to determine species only occurring on inselberg habitats (i.e. inselberg specialists). Detrended correspondence analysis and a step‐by‐step selection process based on species distribution patterns were used to determine species occurring on inselbergs beyond their zonal distribution ranges. Results The systematic selection process initially identified 88 plant species. Based on field observations and published sources eliminating species (1) with a wide distribution elsewhere, (2) distribution influenced by local effects and (3) for which their status of knowledge of distribution was clearly inadequate, this list was further reduced to 25 species. This included southern species occurring on inselbergs likely beyond their zonal distribution, such as Adenolobus garipensis, Aloe dichotoma and Euphorbia gummifera, as well as savanna and escarpment species at their western zonal distribution edge (e.g. Cordia sinensis, Commiphora glaucescens and Moringa ovalifolia). Main conclusions The step‐by‐step selection process proposed in this study to assist with the selection of indicators for climate change provides an objective tool in areas where biodiversity coverage is not adequate and little is known about physiology, growth and reproductive patterns of individual species. As such it introduces a method for preliminary screening of species, but will require further input based on field observations and expert knowledge.     

Accounting for effects of carbon flows in LCA of biomass-based products—exploration and evaluation of a selection of existing methods

Purpose

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has become one of the most widespread environmental assessment tools during the last two decades. However, there are still impacts that are not yet fully integrated, including climate impacts of land use. This study contributes to the development process by testing a selection of recently proposed climate impacts assessment methods, some more focused on the impact of land use and others more focused on a product’s carbon life cycle.

Methods

Several assessment methods have been proposed in recent years, with their development still being in progress. Of these methods, we selected three methods that are more focused on the product’s carbon life cycle, and two methods more focused on the impact of land use. We applied the methods to an LCA study comparing biomass-based polyethylene (PE) packaging via different production routes in order to identify their methodological and practical challenges.

Results and discussion

We found that including the impact of land use and carbon cycles had a profound effect on the results for global warming impact potential. It changed the ranking among the different routes for PE production, sometimes making biomass-based PE worse than the fossil alternative. Especially, the methods accounting for long time lags between carbon emissions and uptake in forestry punished the wood-based routes. Moreover, the variation in the results was considerable, showing that although assessment methods for climate impact can be applied to biomass-based products, their outcomes are not yet robust.

Conclusions

We recommend efforts to harmonize and reconcile different approaches for the assessment of climate impact of biomass-based products with regard to (1) how they consider time, (2) their applicability to both short and long rotation crops and (3) harmonization of concepts and terms used by the methods. We further recommend that all value laden methodological choices that are built into the methods, such as the choice of reference states/points, are made explicit and that the outcomes of different modelling choices are tested.

     

How can soil monitoring networks be used to improve predictions of organic carbon pool dynamics and CO2 fluxes in agricultural soils?

As regional and continental carbon balances of terrestrial ecosystems become available, it becomes clear that the soils are the largest source of uncertainty. Repeated inventories of soil organic carbon (SOC) organized in soil monitoring networks (SMN) are being implemented in a number of countries. This paper reviews the concepts and design of SMNs in ten countries, and discusses the contribution of such networks to reducing the uncertainty of soil carbon balances. Some SMNs are designed to estimate country-specific land use or management effects on SOC stocks, while others collect soil carbon and ancillary data to provide a nationally consistent assessment of soil carbon condition across the major land-use/soil type combinations. The former use a single sampling campaign of paired sites, while for the latter both systematic (usually grid based) and stratified repeated sampling campaigns (5?C10 years interval) are used with densities of one site per 10?C1,040 km². For paired sites, multiple samples at each site are taken in order to allow statistical analysis, while for the single sites, composite samples are taken. In both cases, fixed depth increments together with samples for bulk density and stone content are recommended. Samples should be archived to allow for re-measurement purposes using updated techniques. Information on land management, and where possible, land use history should be systematically recorded for each site. A case study of the agricultural frontier in Brazil is presented in which land use effect factors are calculated in order to quantify the CO₂ fluxes from national land use/management conversion matrices. Process-based SOC models can be run for the individual points of the SMN, provided detailed land management records are available. These studies are still rare, as most SMNs have been implemented recently or are in progress. Examples from the USA and Belgium show that uncertainties in SOC change range from 1.6?C6.5 Mg C ha^?1 for the prediction of SOC stock changes on individual sites to 11.72 Mg C ha^?1 or 34% of the median SOC change for soil/land use/climate units. For national SOC monitoring, stratified sampling sites appears to be the most straightforward attribution of SOC values to units with similar soil/land use/climate conditions (i.e. a spatially implicit upscaling approach).     

Is soil degradation unrelated to deforestation? Examining soil parameters of land use systems in upland Central Sulawesi, Indonesia

It is generally assumed that declining soil fertility during cultivation forces farmers to clear forest. We wanted to test this for a rainforest margin area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia. We compared soil characteristics in different land-use systems and after different length of cultivation. 66 sites with four major land-use systems (maize, agroforestry, forest fallow and natural forest) were sampled. Soils were generally fertile, with high base cation saturation, high cation exchange capacity, moderate pH-values and moderate to high stocks of total nitrogen. Organic matter stocks were highest in natural forest, intermediate in forest fallow and lowest in maize and agroforestry sites. In maize fields soil organic matter decreased during continuous cultivation, whereas in agroforestry it was stable or had the tendency to increase in time. The effective cation exchange capacity (ECEC) was highest in natural forest and lowest in maize fields. Base cations saturation of ECEC did not change significantly during cultivation both maize and agroforestry, whereas the contribution of K cations decreased in maize and showed no changes in agroforestry sites. Our results indicate that maize cultivation tends to reduce soil fertility but agroforestry systems are able to stop this decline of soil fertility or even improve it. As most areas in this rain forest margin are converted into agroforestry systems it is unlikely that soil degradation causes deforestation in this case. On the contrary, the relatively high soil fertility may actually attract new immigrants who contribute to deforestation and start agriculture as smallholders.     

Forest biodiversity in a changing climate: which logic for conservation strategies?

Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on forest ecosystems worldwide. In this context, changing site conditions and altered disturbance regimes as well as forest management responses are challenging the conservation of biodiversity in forests. Climate-induced dynamics and uncertainties related to future forest ecosystem development are calling into question current conservation strategies and concepts. Given the longevity of trees, slow development rates of forest ecosystems and slow migration rates of many forest species, the planning of adaptation measures in response to climate change are especially difficult though highly important for forest biodiversity conservation. This paper introduces a special issue with eight contributions which deal with a variety of aspects of forest biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. More specifically, the papers address direct impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity, adaptation measures for forest and conservation management, as well as resulting challenges for conservation strategies and concepts. In conclusion, adaptation measures that enhance diversity and provide different options for future action, thereby maintaining ecosystems’ resilience, as well as conservation management operating on a landscape level, are promoted as being beneficial for coping with uncertainties related to climate change. Adaptive management, which constantly reviews conservation goals and measures, and which takes into account both science-based and local ecological knowledge on climate change can be a valuable tool to inform decisions for forest biodiversity conservation.     

The opening of Pandora’s Box: climate change impacts on soil fertility and crop nutrition in developing countries

Feeding the world’s growing population is a serious challenge. Food insecurity is concentrated in developing nations, where drought and low soil fertility are primary constraints to food production. Many crops in developing countries are supported by weathered soils in which nutrient deficiencies and ion toxicities are common. Many systems have declining soil fertility due to inadequate use of fertility inputs, ongoing soil degradation, and increasingly intense resource use by burgeoning populations. Climate models predict that warmer temperatures and increases in the frequency and duration of drought during the 21st century will have net negative effects on agricultural productivity. The potential effects of climate change on soil fertility and the ability of crops to acquire and utilize soil nutrients is poorly understood, but is essential for understanding the future of global agriculture. This paper explores how rising temperature, drought and more intense precipitation events projected in climate change scenarios for the 21st century might affect soil fertility and the mineral nutrition of crops in developing countries. The effects of climate change on erosion rates, soil organic carbon losses, soil moisture, root growth and function, root-microbe associations and plant phenology as they relate to mineral nutrition are discussed. Our analysis suggests that the negative impacts of climate change on soil fertility and mineral nutrition of crops will far exceed beneficial effects, which would intensify food insecurity, particularly in developing countries.     

Scattered trees: a complementary strategy for facilitating adaptive responses to climate change in modified landscapes?

1.  Facilitating adaptive responses of organisms in modified landscape will be essential to overcome the negative effects of climate change and its interaction with land use change. Without such action, many organisms will be prevented from achieving the predicted range shifts they need to survive.
2.  Scattered trees are a prominent feature of many modified landscapes, and could play an important role in facilitating climate change adaptation. They are keystone structures because of the disproportionally large ecological values and ecosystem services that they provide relative to the area they occupy in these landscapes. The provision of habitat and connectivity will be particularly relevant.
3.  Scattered trees are declining in modified landscapes due to elevated tree mortality and poor recruitment often associated with intensive land use. The continuing global decline of scattered trees will undermine the capacity of many organisms to adapt to climate change.
4.   Synthesis and applications. The sustainable management of scattered trees in modified landscapes could complement other strategies for facilitating climate change adaptation. They create continuous, though sparse, vegetation cover that permits multi-directional movements of biota across landscapes and ecological networks. They have the capacity to span ecosystems and climatic gradients that cannot be captured in formal reserves alone. The management of scattered trees should be an integral part of conservation objectives and agricultural activities in modified landscapes. Public investment, through mechanisms such as agri-environmental schemes, in rotational grazing, temporary set-asides, tree-planting and regulations that reduce clearing and early mortality among standing trees will improve the capacity of biota to adapt to climate change.     

Fuelling flight in a parasitic wasp: which energetic substrate to use?

1. Flight is an energy‐demanding behaviour in insects. In parasitic wasps, strategies of nutrient acquisition and allocation, resulting life‐history trade‐offs and relationships with foraging strategies and resource availability have received much attention. However, despite the ecological importance of dispersal between host and food patches, and the great impact energy diverted to flight should have on lifetime reproductive success, the eco‐physiology of flight in parasitoids is poorly understood. 2. The objective of this study is to (i) identify the energetic resources used to fuel flight, and (ii) relate nutrient type and rate of utilisation to selective pressures in terms of resource availability posed by the environment. 3. Using a flight mill and biochemical assays, we compared flight performance and nutrient dynamics during flight between two reproductive modes of the parasitoid Venturia canescens Gravenhorst, which is known to thrive preferentially in contrasted environments (i.e. natural vs. anthropogenic habitat), differing notably in host and food distribution. 4. Biochemical analyses of different nutrient types showed that glycogen is the flight fuel used by this species, yet no significant differences in its dynamics in flight were found between the two reproductive modes. 5. Results suggest that both glycogen quantity and flight performance are related to the diverging ecological conditions experienced by thelytokous and arrhenotokous strains.     

Altitudinal patterns of tick and host abundance: a potential role for climate change in regulating tick-borne diseases?

The impact of climate change on vector-borne infectious diseases is currently controversial. In Europe the primary arthropod vectors of zoonotic diseases are ticks, which transmit Borrelia burgdorferi sensu lato (the agent of Lyme disease), tick-borne encephalitis virus and louping ill virus between humans, livestock and wildlife. Ixodes ricinus ticks and reported tick-borne disease cases are currently increasing in the UK. Theories for this include climate change and increasing host abundance. This study aimed to test how I. ricinus tick abundance might be influenced by climate change in Scotland by using altitudinal gradients as a proxy, while also taking into account the effects of hosts, vegetation and weather effects. It was predicted that tick abundance would be higher at lower altitudes (i.e. warmer climates) and increase with host abundance. Surveys were conducted on nine hills in Scotland, all of open moorland habitat. Tick abundance was positively associated with deer abundance, but even after taking this into account, there was a strong negative association of ticks with altitude. This was probably a real climate effect, with temperature (and humidity, i.e. saturation deficit) most likely playing an important role. It could be inferred that ticks may become more abundant at higher altitudes in response to climate warming. This has potential implications for pathogen prevalence such as louping ill virus if tick numbers increase at elevations where competent transmission hosts (red grouse Lagopus lagopus scoticus and mountain hares Lepus timidus) occur in higher numbers.