How should we define goodness?--reputation dynamics in indirect reciprocity

Theory of indirect reciprocity is important in explaining cooperation between humans. Since a partner of a social interaction often changes, an individual should assess his partner by using social information such as reputation and make decisions whether to help him or not. To those who have 'good' social reputation does a player give aid as reciprocation, whereas he has to refuse to help those who have 'bad' reputation. Otherwise benefits of altruism is easily exploited by them. Little has been known, however, about the definition of 'goodness' in reputation. What kind of actions are and should be regarded as good and what kind of actions bad? And what sort of goodness enables sustaining exchange of altruism? We herein challenge this question with an evolutionary perspective. We generalize social reputation as 'Honor-score' (H-score) and examine the conditions under which individuals in a group stably maintain cooperative relationships based on indirect reciprocity. We examine the condition for evolutionarily stable strategies (ESSs) over 4096 possible cases exhaustively. Mathematical analysis reveals that only eight cases called 'leading eight' are crucial to the evolution of indirect reciprocity. Each in the leading eight shares two common characteristics: (i) cooperation with good persons is regarded as good while defection against them is regarded as bad, and (ii) defection against bad persons should be regarded as a good behavior because it works as sanction. Our results give one solution to the definition of goodness from an evolutionary viewpoint. In addition, we believe that the formalism of reputation dynamics gives general insights into the way social information is generated, handled, and transmitted in animal societies.     

Are there really no evolutionarily stable strategies in the iterated prisoner's dilemma?

The evolutionary form of the iterated prisoner's dilemma (IPD) is a repeated game where players strategically choose whether to cooperate with or exploit opponents and reproduce in proportion to game success. It has been widely used to study the evolution of cooperation among selfish agents. In the past 15 years, researchers proved over a series of papers that there is no evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) in the IPD when players maintain long-term relationships. This makes it difficult to make predictions about what strategies can actually persist as prevalent in a population over time. Here, we show that this no ESS finding may be a mathematical technicality, relying on implausible players who are "too perfect" in that their probability of cooperating on any move is arbitrarily close to either 0 or 1. Specifically, in the no ESS proof, all strategies were allowed, meaning that after a strategy X experiences any history H, X cooperates with an unrestricted probability p (X, H) where 0< or =p (X, H)< or =1. Here, we restrict strategies to the set S in which X is a member of S [corrected] if after any H, X cooperates with a restricted probability p (X, H) where e< or =p (X, H)< or =1-e and 0相似文献   

Estimating fitness consequences of dispersal: a road to 'know-where'? Non-random dispersal and the underestimation of dispersers' fitness

1. Many studies investigating fitness correlates of dispersal in vertebrates report dispersers to have lower fitness than philopatric individuals. However, if dispersers are more likely to produce dispersing young or are more likely to disperse again in the next year(s) than philopatric individuals, there is a risk that fitness estimates based on local adult survival and local recruitment will be underestimated for dispersers. 2. We review the available empirical evidence on parent-offspring resemblance and individual lifelong consistency in dispersal behaviour, and relate these studies to recent studies of fitness correlates of dispersal in vertebrates. 3. Of the 12 studies testing directly for parent-offspring resemblance in dispersal propensity, five report a significant resemblance. The average effect size (r) of parent-offspring resemblance in dispersal was 0.15 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.07-0.22], with no difference between the sexes (average weighted effect size of 0.12 (0.08-0.16) and 0.16 (0.11-0.20) for females and males, respectively). Only three studies report data on within-individual consistency in dispersal propensity, of which two suggest dispersers to be more likely to disperse again. 4. To assess the magnitude of fitness underestimation expected for dispersing individuals depending on the heritability of dispersal distance and study area size, we used a simulation approach. Even when study area size is 10 times the mean dispersal distance, local recruitment per breeding event may be underestimated by 4-10%, generating a potential difference of 4-60% in average lifetime production of recruits between dispersing and philopatric individuals, with larger differences in long-lived species. 5. Estimates of both fitness correlates of dispersal and parent-offspring resemblance or within-individual consistency in dispersal behaviour have been reported for 11 species. Although some comparisons suggest genuine differences in fitness components between philopatric and dispersing individuals, others, based on adult and juvenile survival, are open to the alternative explanation of biased fitness estimates. 6. We list three potential ways of reducing the risk of making wrong inferences on biased fitness estimates due to such non-random dispersal behaviour between dispersing and philopatric individuals: (a) diagnosing effects of non-random dispersal, (b) reducing the effects of spatially limited study area and (c) performing controlled experiments.     

“Perchance to dream?”: Assessing the effects of dispersal strategies on the fitness of expanding populations

Unraveling the patterns of animals’ movements is crucial to understanding the basics of biogeography, tracking range shifts resulting from climate change, and predicting and preventing biological invasions. Many researchers have modeled animals’ dispersal under the assumptions of various movement strategies, either predetermined or directed by external factors, but none have compared the effects of different movement strategies on population survival and fitness. In this paper, using an agent-based model with a landscape divided into cells of varying quality, we compare the ecological success of three movement and habitat selection strategies (MHSSs): (i) Smart, in which animals choose the locally optimal cell; (ii) Random, in which animals move randomly between cells without taking into account their quality; (iii) Dreamer, in which animals attempt to find a habitat of dream whose quality is much higher than that of the habitat available on the map. We compare the short-term success of these MHSSs in good, medium and bad environments. We also assess the effect of temporal variation of habitat quality (specifically, winter harshness) on the success of each MHSS. Success is measured in terms of survival rate, dispersal distance, accumulated energy and quality of settled habitat. The most general conclusion is that while survival rate, accumulated energy and quality of settled habitat are affected primarily by overall habitat composition (proportions of different habitat types in the landscape), dispersal distance depends mainly on the MHSS. In medium and good environments, the Dreamer strategy is highly successful: it simultaneously outperforms the Smart strategy in dispersal distance and the Random strategy in terms of the other metrics.     

Ecotypic variation in the asymmetric Hawk-Dove game: When is Bourgeois an evolutionarily stable strategy?

Summary This paper develops a mathematical model of an iterated, asymmetric Hawk-Dove game with the novel feature that not only are successive pairs of interactants — in the roles of owner and intruder contesting a site — drawn randomly from the population, but also the behaviour adopted at one interaction affects the role of a contestant in the next. Under the assumption that a site is essential for reproduction, the evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) of the population is found to depend on the probability, w, that the game will continue for at least a further period (which is inversely related to predation risk), and five other parameters; two of them are measures of site scarcity, two are measures of fighting costs, and the last is a measure of resource holding potential (RHP). Among the four strategies — Hawk (H), Dove (D), Bourgeois (B) and anti-Bourgeois (X) — only D is incapable of being an ESS; and regions of parameter space are found in which the ESS can be only H, or only X, or only B; or either H or X; or either X or B; or either H or B; or any of the three. The scarcer the sites or the lower the costs of fighting, or the lower the value of w, the more likely it is that H is an ESS; the more abundant the sites or the higher the costs of fighting, or the higher the value of w, the more likely it is that X or B is an ESS. The different ESSs are interpreted as different ecotypes. The analysis suggests how a non-fighting population could evolve from a fighting population under decreasing risk of predation. If there were no RHP, or if RHP were low, then the ESS in the non-fighting population would be X; only if RHP were sufficiently high would the ESS be B, and the scarcer the sites, the higher the RHP would have to be. These conclusions support the thesis that if long-term territories are essential for reproduction and sites are scarce, then ownership is ruled out not only as an uncorrelated asymmetry for settling disputes in favour of owner, but also as a correlated asymmetry.     

How well do reduced models capture the dynamics in models of interacting neurons?

This paper introduces a class of stochastic models of interacting neurons with emergent dynamics similar to those seen in local cortical populations. Rigorous results on existence and uniqueness of nonequilibrium steady states are proved. These network models are then compared to very simple reduced models driven by the same mean excitatory and inhibitory currents. Discrepancies in firing rates between network and reduced models are investigated and explained by correlations in spiking, or partial synchronization, working in concert with “nonlinearities” in the time evolution of membrane potentials. The use of simple random walks and their first passage times to simulate fluctuations in neuronal membrane potentials and interspike times is also considered.

     

How should public policy respond to the challenges of modern biotechnology?

Modern biotechnology has been a topic of public and political debate around the world for over 30 years; continuing scientific breakthroughs keep it high on the agenda. Policy responses have been diverse, fragmented and incoherent, at levels ranging from local regions to agencies of the United Nations, but particularly in national administrations and the European Union. Reactions have been ambivalent, combining fears about conjectural risks with concern to maintain competitiveness and exploit beneficial applications. Adverse public perceptions have become a significant influence on policy, in combination with more cynical and self-interested motives of some of the players in policy debates. Future options, in Europe and elsewhere, are constrained by past and continuing mistakes and over-reactions.     

How to define nativeness in organisms with high dispersal capacities? A comment on Essl et al.

Essl and colleagues documented worldwide invasion patterns in bryophytes, which so far have been neglected in invasion biology. In the absence of historical evidence, Essl and colleagues used criteria such as anomalous geographical distribution, preference for disturbed habitats, and indirect associations with some means of human transport as criteria to identify aliens. Because bryophytes exhibit high long‐distance dispersal capabilities, disjunct distribution patterns are, however, the rule rather than the exception in the group. In our opinion, none of the previously proposed criteria to characterize aliens can be satisfactorily applied to groups like bryophytes, for which historical and fossil records are extremely scarce. We suggest that, in order to validate the conclusions of Essl and colleagues, further taxonomic and phylogeographical studies are needed. This is especially true for island floras, for which recent critical taxonomic work and updated checklists, which compose the primary source of information for biodiversity, are largely missing.     

How good are comparative models in the understanding of protein dynamics?

The 3D structure of a protein is essential to understand protein dynamics. If experimentally determined structure is unavailable, comparative models could be used to infer dynamics. However, the effectiveness of comparative models, compared to experimental structures, in inferring dynamics is not clear. To address this, we compared dynamics features of ~800 comparative models with their crystal structures using normal mode analysis. Average similarity in magnitude, direction, and correlation of residue motions is >0.8 (where value 1 is identical) indicating that the dynamics of models and crystal structures are highly similar. Accuracy of 3D structure and dynamics is significantly higher for models built on multiple and/or high sequence identity templates (>40%). Three-dimensional (3D) structure and residue fluctuations of models are closer to that of crystal structures than to templates (TM score 0.9 vs 0.7 and square inner product 0.92 vs 0.88). Furthermore, long-range molecular dynamics simulations on comparative models of RNase 1 and Angiogenin showed significant differences in the conformational sampling of conserved active-site residues that characterize differences in their activity levels. Similar analyses on two EGFR kinase variant models highlight the effect of mutations on the functional state-specific αC helix motions and these results corroborate with the previous experimental observations. Thus, our study adds confidence to the use of comparative models in understanding protein dynamics.     

How close are we to a predictive science of the biosphere?

In just 20 years, the field of biosphere-atmosphere interactions has gone from a nascent discipline to a central area of modern climate change research. The development of terrestrial biosphere models that predict the responses of ecosystems to climate and increasing CO2 levels has highlighted several mechanisms by which changes in ecosystem composition and function might alter regional and global climate. However, results from empirical studies suggest that ecosystem responses can differ markedly from the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models. As I discuss here, the challenge now is to connect terrestrial biosphere models to empirical ecosystem measurements. Only by systematically evaluating the predictions of terrestrial biosphere models against suites of ecosystem observations and experiments measurements will a true predictive science of the biosphere be achieved.     

Fluctuating asymmetry as an indicator of fitness: can we bridge the gap between studies?

There is growing evidence from both experimental and non-experimental studies that fluctuating asymmetry does not consistently index stress or fitness. The widely held--yet poorly substantiated--belief that fluctuating asymmetry can act as a universal measure of developmental stability and predictor of stress-mediated changes in fitness, therefore staggers. Yet attempts to understand why the reported relationships between fluctuating asymmetry, stress and fitness are so heterogeneous--i.e. whether the associations are truly weak or non-existent or whether they become confounded during different stages of the analytical pathways remain surprisingly scarce. Hence, we attempt to disentangle these causes, by reviewing the various statistical and conceptual factors that are suspected to confound potential relationships between fluctuating asymmetry, stress and fitness. Two main categories of factors are discerned: those associated with the estimation of developmental stability through fluctuating asymmetry and those associated with the effects of genotype and environment on developmental stability. Next, we describe a series of statistical tools that have recently been developed to help reduce this noise. We argue that the current lack of a theoretical framework that predicts if and when relationships with developmental stability can be expected, urges for further theoretical and empirical research, such as on the genetic architecture of developmental stability in stressed populations. If the underlying developmental mechanisms are better understood, statistical patterns of asymmetry variation may become a biologically meaningful tool.     

How important is seed predation to recruitment in stable populations of long-lived perennials?

Summary The many evolutionary modifications to seed biology in response to seed predation do not necessarily imply that seed predators have an important impact on population recruitment. This is because competition between individual plants for rare safe sites can cause an oversupply of seeds so far as a population is concerned. The importance of seed losses to population recruitment at any point in time is related to the abundance of safe sites (Fig. 1): it is zero when safe sites are absent, negligible when safe sites are rare, and greatest when safe sites are numerous enough for recruitment to be limited by seed supply. Here I interpret the impact of severe seed losses on population recruitment in four species of long-lived perennials (Eucalyptus baxteri, Leptospermum juniperinum, Casuarina pusilla and L. myrsinoides) by considering these losses in terms of the overall seed dynamics of the populations. I focus on seed supply and seedling survival, as a measure of the current abundance of safe sites, and the maintenance of seed banks, as a measure of the ability of populations to exploit any future changes in safe site abundance. Insect seed predators destroyed about 95% of total seeds in each case. However, these losses do not necessarily have an important impact on population recruitment, because: (i) in most years recruitment appears to be limited by a rarity of safe sites, and not by seed supply (which was as high as 43 germinable seeds/m²/yr); and (ii) the losses did not prevent the establishment of large seed banks (ranging from >30 to >1000 viable seeds/m²) potentially capable of exploiting temporary conditions favourable for recruitment. In contrast to the situation with many annual plants, patterns of recruitment in stable populations of long-lived perennials are often extremely complex, and the significance of seed losses therefore difficult to determine.     

How should we monitor the cardiovascular benefit of sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibition?

Background

High N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide levels have been associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). However, less is known about other cardiac stress biomarkers in this context. Here we evaluated the association of mid-regional pro-atrial natriuretic peptide (MR-proANP), C-terminal pro-arginine vasopressin (copeptin), C-terminal pro-endothelin-1 (CT-proET-1) and mid-regional pro-adrenomedullin (MR-proADM) with incident T2D and changes in glucose metabolism.

Methods

We performed a prospective cohort study using data from the population-based KORA F4/FF4 study. 1773 participants (52.3% women) with MR-proANP measurements and 960 (52.7% women) with copeptin, CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM measurements were included. We examined associations of circulating plasma levels of MR-proANP, copeptin, CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM with incident T2D, the combined endpoint of incident prediabetes/T2D and with fasting and 2 h-glucose, fasting insulin, HOMA-IR, HOMA-B and HbA1c at follow-up. Logistic and linear regression models adjusted for age, sex, waist circumference, height, hypertension, total/HDL cholesterol ratio, triglycerides, smoking, physical activity and parental history of diabetes were used to compute effect estimates.

Results

During a median follow-up time of 6.4 years (25th and 75th percentiles: 6.0 and 6.6, respectively), 119 out of the 1773 participants and 72 out of the 960 participants developed T2D. MR-proANP was inversely associated with incident T2D (odds ratio [95% confidence interval]: 0.75 [0.58; 0.96] per 1-SD increase of log MR-proANP). Copeptin was positively associated with incident prediabetes/T2D (1.29 [1.02; 1.63] per 1-SD increase of log copeptin). Elevated levels of CT-proET-1 were associated with increased HOMA-B at follow-up, while elevated MR-proADM levels were associated with increased fasting insulin, HOMA-IR and HOMA-B at follow-up. These associations were independent of previously described diabetes risk factors.

Conclusions

High plasma concentrations of MR-proANP contributed to a lower risk of incident T2D, whereas high plasma concentrations of copeptin were associated with an increased risk of incident prediabetes/T2D. Furthermore, high plasma concentrations of CT-proET-1 and MR-proADM were associated with increased insulin resistance. Our study provides evidence that biomarkers implicated in cardiac stress are associated with incident T2D and changes in glucose metabolism.

     

How to localize epigenetics in the landscape of biological research?

Today, epigenetics is a very fashionable field of research. Modification of DNA by methylation, and of chromatin by histone modification or substitution represents a major fraction of the studies; but this special issue shows that epigenetic studies are very diverse, and not limited to the study of chromatin. What is common behind these different uses of the word epigenetics? A brief historical survey shows that epigenetics was invented twice, with different meanings: in the 1940s, by Conrad Waddington, as the study of the relations between the genotype and the phenotype; in the 1960s, as the global mechanisms of gene regulation involved in differentiation and development; what is common is that an approach distinct from genetics was in both cases considered as necessary because genetic models were incapable to address these problems. A good way to appreciate the relations between genetics and epigenetics is to realize that the main aim of organisms is to reproduce, and to consider the way organisms perform this task. Genetics is the precise means organisms have invented to reproduce the structure of their macromolecular components; the genome is also used to control the level and place of this reproduction. All the other means organisms have used to reproduce were more or less the result of tinkering, and constitute the field of epigenetics, with its diversity and richness.