Model-Based Evaluation of Highly and Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Dynamics in Wild Birds

There is growing interest in avian influenza (AI) epidemiology to predict disease risk in wild and domestic birds, and prevent transmission to humans. However, understanding the epidemic dynamics of highly pathogenic (HPAI) viruses remains challenging because they have rarely been detected in wild birds. We used modeling to integrate available scientific information from laboratory and field studies, evaluate AI dynamics in individual hosts and waterfowl populations, and identify key areas for future research. We developed a Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Recovered (SEIR) model and used published laboratory challenge studies to estimate epidemiological parameters (rate of infection, latency period, recovery and mortality rates), considering the importance of age classes, and virus pathogenicity. Infectious contact leads to infection and virus shedding within 1–2 days, followed by relatively slower period for recovery or mortality. We found a shorter infectious period for HPAI than low pathogenic (LP) AI, which may explain that HPAI has been much harder to detect than LPAI during surveillance programs. Our model predicted a rapid LPAI epidemic curve, with a median duration of infection of 50–60 days and no fatalities. In contrast, HPAI dynamics had lower prevalence and higher mortality, especially in young birds. Based on field data from LPAI studies, our model suggests to increase surveillance for HPAI in post-breeding areas, because the presence of immunologically naïve young birds is predicted to cause higher HPAI prevalence and bird losses during this season. Our results indicate a better understanding of the transmission, infection, and immunity-related processes is required to refine predictions of AI risk and spread, improve surveillance for HPAI in wild birds, and develop disease control strategies to reduce potential transmission to domestic birds and/or humans.     

Success Factors for Avian Influenza Vaccine Use in Poultry and Potential Impact at the Wild Bird–Agricultural Interface

Thirty-two epizootics of high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) have been reported in poultry and other birds since 1959. The ongoing H5N1 HPAI epizootic that began in 1996 has also spilled over to infect wild birds. Traditional stamping-out programs in poultry have resulted in eradication of most HPAI epizootics. However, vaccination of poultry was added as a control tool in 1995 and has been used during five epizootics. Over 113 billion doses of AI vaccine have been used in poultry from 2002 to 2010 as oil-emulsified, inactivated whole AIV vaccines (95.5%) and live vectored vaccines (4.5%). Over 99% of the vaccine has been used in the four H5N1 HPAI enzootic countries: China including Hong Kong (91%), Egypt (4.7%), Indonesia (2.3%), and Vietnam (1.4%) where vaccination programs have been nationwide and routine to all poultry. Ten other countries used vaccine in poultry in a focused, risk-based manner but this accounted for less than 1% of the vaccine used. Most vaccine “failures” have resulted from problems in the vaccination process; i.e., failure to adequately administer the vaccine to at-risk poultry resulting in lack of population immunity, while fewer failures have resulted from antigenic drift of field viruses away from the vaccine viruses. It is currently not feasible to vaccinate wild birds against H5N1 HPAI, but naturally occurring infections with H5 low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses may generate cross-protective immunity against H5N1 HPAI. The most feasible method to prevent and control H5N1 HPAI in wild birds is through control of the disease in poultry with use of vaccine to reduce environmental burden of H5N1 HPAIV, and eventual eradication of the virus in domestic poultry, especially in domestic ducks which are raised in enzootic countries on range or in other outdoor systems having contact with wild aquatic and periurban terrestrial birds.     

Homo- and heterosubtypic low pathogenic avian influenza exposure on H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa)

Wild birds in the Orders Anseriformes and Charadriiformes are the natural reservoirs for avian influenza (AI) viruses. Although they are often infected with multiple AI viruses, the significance and extent of acquired immunity in these populations is not understood. Pre-existing immunity to AI virus has been shown to modulate the outcome of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus infection in multiple domestic avian species, but few studies have addressed this effect in wild birds. In this study, the effect of pre-exposure to homosubtypic (homologous hemagglutinin) and heterosubtypic (heterologous hemagglutinin) low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses on the outcome of a H5N1 HPAI virus infection in wood ducks (Aix sponsa) was evaluated. Pre-exposure of wood ducks to different LPAI viruses did not prevent infection with H5N1 HPAI virus, but did increase survival associated with H5N1 HPAI virus infection. The magnitude of this effect on the outcome of the H5N1 HPAI virus infection varied between different LPAI viruses, and was associated both with efficiency of LPAI viral replication in wood ducks and the development of a detectable humoral immune response. These observations suggest that in naturally occurring outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI, birds with pre-existing immunity to homologous hemagglutinin or neuraminidase subtypes of AI virus may either survive H5N1 HPAI virus infection or live longer than naïve birds and, consequently, could pose a greater risk for contributing to viral transmission and dissemination. The mechanisms responsible for this protection and/or the duration of this immunity remain unknown. The results of this study are important for surveillance efforts and help clarify epidemiological data from outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI virus in wild bird populations.     

Establishment of a Canine Rabies Burden in Haiti through the Implementation of a Novel Surveillance Program

The Republic of Haiti is one of only several countries in the Western Hemisphere in which canine rabies is still endemic. Estimation methods have predicted that 130 human deaths occur per year, yet existing surveillance mechanisms have detected few of these rabies cases. Likewise, canine rabies surveillance capacity has had only limited capacity, detecting only two rabid dogs per year, on average. In 2013, Haiti initiated a community-based animal rabies surveillance program comprised of two components: active community bite investigation and passive animal rabies investigation. From January 2013 –December 2014, 778 rabies suspect animals were reported for investigation. Rabies was laboratory-confirmed in 70 animals (9%) and an additional 36 cases were identified based on clinical diagnosis (5%), representing an 18-fold increase in reporting of rabid animals compared to the three years before the program was implemented. Dogs were the most frequent rabid animal (90%). Testing and observation ruled out rabies in 61% of animals investigated. A total of 639 bite victims were reported to the program and an additional 364 bite victims who had not sought medical care were identified during the course of investigations. Only 31% of people with likely rabies exposures had initiated rabies post-exposure prophylaxis prior to the investigation. Rabies is a neglected disease in-part due to a lack of surveillance and understanding about the burden. The surveillance methods employed by this program established a much higher burden of canine rabies in Haiti than previously recognized. The active, community-based bite investigations identified numerous additional rabies exposures and bite victims were referred for appropriate medical care, averting potential human rabies deaths. The use of community-based rabies surveillance programs such as HARSP should be considered in canine rabies endemic countries.     

Temperature drops and the onset of severe avian influenza A H5N1 virus outbreaks

Global influenza surveillance is one of the most effective strategies for containing outbreaks and preparing for a possible pandemic influenza. Since the end of 2003, highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAI) H5N1 have caused many outbreaks in poultries and wild birds from East Asia and have spread to at least 48 countries. For such a fast and wide-spreading virulent pathogen, prediction based on changes of micro- and macro-environment has rarely been evaluated. In this study, we are developing a new climatic approach by investigating the conditions that occurred before the H5N1 avian influenza outbreaks for early predicting future HPAI outbreaks and preventing pandemic disasters. The results show a temperature drop shortly before these outbreaks in birds in each of the Eurasian regions stricken in 2005 and 2006. Dust storms, like those that struck near China's Lake Qinghai around May 4, 2005, exacerbated the spread of this HPAI H5N1 virus, causing the deaths of a record number of wild birds and triggering the subsequent spread of H5N1. Weather monitoring could play an important role in the early warning of outbreaks of this potentially dangerous virus.     

Clinician reviewers in birth defects surveillance programs: survey of the National Birth Defects Prevention Network

BACKGROUND: Some birth defects surveillance programs utilize a clinician reviewer ("Clinician") to assist the multidisciplinary staff in the process of case review, coding and classification. The untested assumption is that expertise in the evaluation of individuals with birth defects and genetic syndromes in clinical practice, usually clinical genetics, is useful in reviewing medical records. METHODS: We conducted an exploratory survey of the 50 functioning birth defects surveillance programs that participated in the National Birth Defects Prevention Network in 2004. The survey was mailed electronically to program coordinators and included 10 questions with check-off option replies. Open-ended comments were also solicited. RESULTS: Responses were received from 31 of 50 (62%) programs, 21 (68%) which used a Clinician. In addition to the 9 centers that identified themselves as participants in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study (NBDPS), there were 12 non-NBDPS programs using a Clinician, 2 of whom were not clinical geneticists (1 nurse genetic counselor and 1 primary pediatrician). A total of 86% (18/21) of Clinicians were employed part-time or as consultants; 1 was full-time, and 2 were volunteers. In addition to the core activities of classifying defects and reviewing cases to determine if a syndrome was present, over one-half of the Clinicians participated in education of birth defects surveillance programs staff, research, and program development. Most (86%; 18/21) Clinicians had been trained informally for their roles. Only 1 had received a formal performance review. CONCLUSIONS: Aside from the 9 centers in the NBDPS in which the position of Clinician is funded by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), about one-half of the remaining respondent birth defects surveillance programs used a Clinician. Future research is needed to determine why a birth defects surveillance program hires or refrains from using a Clinician, and whether a Clinician accomplishes the desired goals. This survey reveals a lack of formal training for the Clinicians in their roles in the surveillance programs, and a lack of quality monitors, which might be addressed in the future.     

A research agenda for malaria eradication: monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance

Monitoring, evaluation, and surveillance measure how well public health programs operate over time and achieve their goals. As countries approach malaria elimination, these activities will need to shift from measuring reductions in morbidity and mortality, to detecting infections (with or without symptoms) and measuring transmission. Thus, the monitoring and evaluation and surveillance research and development agenda needs to develop the tools and strategies that will replace passive surveillance of morbidity with active and prompt detection of infection, including confirmation of interruption of transmission by detecting present and past infections, particularly in mobile populations. The capacity to assess trends and respond without delay will need to be developed, so that surveillance itself becomes an intervention. Research is also needed to develop sensitive field tests that can detect low levels of parasitaemia, together with strategies for their implementation. Other areas to explore include the rigorous evaluation of the utility of more detailed maps of disease and infection incidence and prevalence, the development of new maps to inform programmatic responses and the use of surveillance technologies based on cell phone or real-time internet Web-based reporting. Because any new strategies for monitoring and evaluation and surveillance for eradication have major implications for program implementation, research is also needed to test systems of delivery for acceptability, feasibility, efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and community engagement. Finally, there is a clear need to systematically review the information from past elimination efforts for malaria and other infectious diseases.     

Results of a psychosomatic training program in China, Vietnam and Laos

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: With the "ASIA-LINK" program, the European Community has supported the development and implementation of a curriculum of postgraduate psychosomatic training for medical doctors in China, Vietnam and Laos. Currently, these three countries are undergoing great social, economic and cultural changes. The associated psychosocial stress has led to increases in psychological and psychosomatic problems, as well as disorders for which no adequate medical or psychological care is available, even in cities. Health care in these three countries is characterized by the coexistence of Western medicine and traditional medicine. Psychological and psychosomatic disorders and problems are insufficiently recognized and treated, and there is a need for biopsychosocially orientated medical care. Little is known about the transferability of Western-oriented psychosomatic training programs in the Southeast Asian cultural context. METHODS: The curriculum was developed and implemented in three steps: 1) an experimental phase to build a future teacher group; 2) a joint training program for future teachers and German teachers; and 3) training by Asian trainers that was supervised by German teachers. The didactic elements included live patient interviews, lectures, communication skills training and Balint groups. The training was evaluated using questionnaires for the participants and interviews of the German teachers and the future teachers. RESULTS: Regional training centers were formed In China (Shanghai), Vietnam (Ho Chi Minh City and Hue) and Laos (Vientiane). A total of 200 physicians completed the training, and 30 physicians acquired the status of future teacher. The acceptance of the training was high, and feelings of competence increased during the courses. The interactive training methods were greatly appreciated, with the skills training and self-experience ranked as the most important topics. Adaptations to the cultural background of the participants were necessary for the topics of "breaking bad news," the handling of negative emotions, discontinuities in participation, the hierarchical doctor-patient relationship, culture-specific syndromes and language barriers. In addition to practical skills for daily clinical practice, the participants wanted to learn more about didactic teaching methods. Half a year after the completion of the training program, the participants stated that the program had a great impact on their daily medical practice. CONCLUSIONS: The training in psychosomatic medicine for postgraduate medical doctors resulted in a positive response and is an important step in addressing the barriers in providing psychosomatic primary care. The transferability of western concepts should be tested locally, and adaptations should be undertaken where necessary. The revised curriculum forms the basis of training in psychosomatic medicine and psychotherapy for medical students and postgraduate doctors in China, Vietnam and Laos.     

Highly pathogenic influenza A(H5N1) virus survival in complex artificial aquatic biotopes

Background

Very little is known regarding the persistence of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses in aquatic environments in tropical countries, although environmental materials have been suggested to play a role as reservoirs and sources of transmission for H5N1 viruses.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The survival of HPAI H5N1 viruses in experimental aquatic biotopes (water, mud, aquatic flora and fauna) relevant to field conditions in Cambodia was investigated. Artificial aquatic biotopes, including simple ones containing only mud and water, and complex biotopes involving the presence of aquatic flora and fauna, were set up. They were experimentally contaminated with H5N1 virus. The persistence of HPAI H5N1 virus (local avian and human isolates) was determined by virus isolation in embryonated chicken eggs and by real-time reverse-polymerase chain reaction. Persistence of infectious virus did not exceed 4 days, and was only identified in rain water. No infectious virus particles were detected in pond and lake water or mud even when high inoculum doses were used. However, viral RNA persisted up to 20 days in rain water and 7 days in pond or lake water. Viral RNA was also detected in mud samples, up to 14 days post-contamination in several cases. Infectious virus and viral RNA was detected in few cases in the aquatic fauna and flora, especially in bivalves and labyrinth fish, although these organisms seemed to be mostly passive carriers of the virus rather than host allowing virus replication.

Conclusions/Significance

Although several factors for the survival and persistence of HPAI viruses in the environment are still to be elucidated, and are particularly hard to control in laboratory conditions, our results, along with previous data, support the idea that environmental surveillance is of major relevance for avian influenza control programs.     

Updated Global Burden of Cholera in Endemic Countries

BackgroundThe global burden of cholera is largely unknown because the majority of cases are not reported. The low reporting can be attributed to limited capacity of epidemiological surveillance and laboratories, as well as social, political, and economic disincentives for reporting. We previously estimated 2.8 million cases and 91,000 deaths annually due to cholera in 51 endemic countries. A major limitation in our previous estimate was that the endemic and non-endemic countries were defined based on the countries’ reported cholera cases. We overcame the limitation with the use of a spatial modelling technique in defining endemic countries, and accordingly updated the estimates of the global burden of cholera.Conclusion/SignificanceThe global burden of cholera remains high. Sub-Saharan Africa accounts for the majority of this burden. Our findings can inform programmatic decision-making for cholera control.     

Prospective of Genomics in Revealing Transmission, Reassortment and Evolution of Wildlife-Borne Avian Influenza A (H5N1) Viruses

The outbreak of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 disease has led to significant loss of poultry and wild life and case fatality rates in humans of 60%. Wild birds are natural hosts for all avian influenza virus subtypes and over120 bird species have been reported with evidence of H5N1 infection. Influenza A viruses possess a segmented RNA genome and are characterized by frequently occurring genetic reassortment events, which play a very important role in virus evolution and the spread of novel gene constellations in immunologically naïve human and animal populations. Phylogenetic analysis of whole genome or sub-genomic sequences is a standard means for delineating genetic variation, novel reassortment events, and surveillance to trace the global transmission pathways. In this paper, special emphasis is given to the transmission and circulation of H5N1 among wild life populations, and to the reassortment events that are associated with inter-host transmission of the H5N1 viruses when they infect different hosts, such as birds, pigs and humans. In addition, we review the inter-subtype reassortment of the viral segments encoding inner proteins between the H5N1 viruses and viruses of other subtypes, such as H9N2 and H6N1. Finally, we highlight the usefulness of genomic sequences in molecular epidemiological analysis of HPAI H5N1 and the technical limitations in existing analytical methods that hinder them from playing a greater role in virological research.     

Systematic Review of Screening and Surveillance Programs to Protect Workers from Nanomaterials

BackgroundScreening and surveillance approaches for workers exposed to nanomaterials could aid in early detection of health effects, provide data for epidemiological studies and inform action to decrease exposure. The aim of this review is to identify such screening and surveillance approaches, in order to extract available data regarding (i) the studies that have successfully been implemented in present day, (ii) identification of the most common and/or toxic nano-related health hazards for workers and (iii) possible exposure surveillance markers. This review contributes to the current understanding of the risk associated with nanomaterials by determining the knowledge gap and making recommendations based on current findings.MethodsA systematic review was conducted. PubMed and Embase were searched to identify articles reporting on any surveillance-related study that described both exposure to nanomaterials and the health indicators that were measured. Four reviewers worked in pairs to independently assess the eligibility of studies and risk of bias before extraction of data. Studies were categorised according to the type of study and the medical surveillance performed, which included the type of nanomaterial, any exposure details provided, as well as health indicators and biomarkers tested.ResultsInitially 92 studies were identified, from which 84 full texts were assessed for eligibility. Seven studies met all the inclusion criteria, i.e. those performed in Taiwan, Korea, Czech Republic and the US. Of these, six compared health indicators between exposed and unexposed workers and one study described a surveillance program. All studies were at a high risk of bias. Workers were exposed to a mix of nanomaterials in three studies, carbon-based nanomaterials in two studies, nano-silver in one study and nano-titanium oxide in the other study. Two studies did not find a difference in biomarkers between exposed and unexposed workers. In addition, differences in early effects on pulmonary function or neurobehavioral tests were not observed. One study found an increased prevalence of allergic dermatitis and “sneezing” in the exposed group.ConclusionsThis review of recently published data on surveillance studies proves that there is a gap in the current knowledge, where most of the surveillance-related studies reported do not follow a set format that provides the required information on ENM characterisation, the type of exposure and the measured indicators/biomarkers. Hence, there is very low quality evidence that screening and surveillance might detect adverse health effects associated with workplace exposure. This systematic review is relevant because it proves that, although surveillance programs have been initiated and preliminary results are being published, the current studies are actually not answering the important questions or solving the overall problem regarding what the potential health hazards are among workers either handling or potentially exposed to ENMs. The recommendations, thus proposed, are based on an obvious need for (i) exposure registries, where longitudinal follow-up studies should inform surveillance, (ii) known exposure measurements or summary indices for ENMs as a reference (iii) validation of candidate biomarkers and (iv) studies that compare the effects of these surveillance approaches to usual care, e.g. those commonly followed for bulk-size hazardous materials.     

H5N1高致病性禽流感病毒的危害及生态问题

高致病性禽流感(HPAI)H5N1病毒亚型已对人类健康、养殖业发展、野生鸟类及生态环境带来极大危害,引起国内外广泛关注。研究发现,禽流感病毒通过发生重组或者突变,可产生感染人类或其他生物的新病毒亚型,或产生更高的致病性,而人类亦具有丰富的与H5N1结合的受体。对候鸟迁徙停歇地禽流感调查表明,湿地、湖泊可能是HPAI病毒存活、散播的疫源地,病毒可随着鸟类的迁徙到处传播。因此,野生鸟类及其赖以生存的主要湿地环境处于感染HPAI的风险之中。     

Follow-up survey of parents of children with major birth defects in New York State

BACKGROUND: One of the objectives of the New York State birth defect surveillance system, the New York State Congenital Malformations Registry (CMR), is to identify children in need of special programs and assist prevention/intervention programs and services with evaluation. In 1999, the CMR started a statewide mass-mailing program to inform parents of children with major birth defects about programs and support groups that might be helpful to them. A follow-up survey by mail was conducted in 2002 to evaluate the usefulness of the mailing program. METHODS: The survey was mailed between September and December of 2001 to parents of children born in 2001 and reported to the CMR with selected major birth defects. Non-respondents were followed-up by telephone. RESULTS: Of the 226 eligible families, 54% (122) responded to the survey. Approximately 66% of responding parents stated that the information provided by the mailing program was helpful, and 48% had contacted and/or used the programs and services listed in the information sheets. Parents with children younger than 6 months of age at the time of mailing were more likely to find the information helpful, compared to parents with children 6 months of age or older. The majority of responding parents had contacted and/or used the Early Intervention Program. CONCLUSION: The findings from the current survey show that the statewide information-mailing program administered by CMR is helpful and useful to the families of children with major birth defects in New York State.     

The use of bacillary tuberculosis information system central files for special-purpose data search

The automated information system for surveillance of bacillary tuberculosis (ISBT) was put into operation in 1981, with the objective to record, store and process all mycobacterial positivity data reported by the network of specialized mycobacteriological laboratories in the Czech socialist republic. Here are described the newly developed data processing programs which allow it to carry out some special-purpose searches for the stored epidemiological data important for surveillance of tuberculosis. Further improvement of the national system of tuberculosis surveillance is believed to lie in the future compatibility of the two computerized systems operating at present in Czechoslovakia, i.e. ISBT and the Register of Tuberculosis.     

Multilocus sequence typing for global surveillance of meningococcal disease

The global surveillance of bacterial pathogens is particularly important for bacteria with diverse and dynamic populations that cause periodic epidemics or pandemics. The isolate characterization methods employed for surveillance should: (1) generate unambiguous data; (2) be readily implemented in a variety of scenarios and be reproducible among laboratories; (3) be scalable and preferably available in a high throughput format; and (4) be cost effective. Multilocus sequence typing (MLST) was designed to meet these criteria and has been implemented effectively for a wide range of microorganisms. The 'Impact of meningococcal epidemiology and population biology on public health in Europe (EU-MenNet)' project had amongst its objectives: (1) to disseminate meningococcal MLST and sequence-based typing throughout Europe by establishing a centre for training and data generation, and (2) to produce a comprehensive Europe-wide picture of meningococcal disease epidemiology for the first time. Data produced from the project have shown the distribution of a relatively small number of STs, clonal complexes and PorA types that account for a large proportion of the disease-associated isolates in Europe. The project demonstrates how molecular typing can be combined with epidemiological data via the Internet for global disease surveillance.     

Satellite Tracking on the Flyways of Brown-Headed Gulls and Their Potential Role in the Spread of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N1 Virus

Brown-headed gulls (Larus brunnicephalus), winter visitors of Thailand, were tracked by satellite telemetry during 2008–2011 for investigating their roles in the highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus spread. Eight gulls negative for influenza virus infection were marked with solar-powered satellite platform transmitters at Bang Poo study site in Samut Prakarn province, Thailand; their movements were monitored by the Argos satellite tracking system, and locations were mapped. Five gulls completed their migratory cycles, which spanned 7 countries (China, Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, and Vietnam) affected by the HPAI H5N1 virus. Gulls migrated from their breeding grounds in China to stay overwinter in Thailand and Cambodia; while Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, and Vietnam were the places of stopovers during migration. Gulls traveled an average distance of about 2400 km between Thailand and China and spent 1–2 weeks on migration. Although AI surveillance among gulls was conducted at the study site, no AI virus was isolated and no H5N1 viral genome or specific antibody was detected in the 75 gulls tested, but 6.6% of blood samples were positive for pan-influenza A antibody. No AI outbreaks were reported in areas along flyways of gulls in Thailand during the study period. Distance and duration of migration, tolerability of the captive gulls to survive the HPAI H5N1 virus challenge and days at viral shedding after the virus challenging suggested that the Brown-headed gull could be a potential species for AI spread, especially among Southeast Asian countries, the epicenter of H5N1 AI outbreak.