Freedom of Choice About Incidental Findings Can Frustrate Participants' True Preferences

Ethicists, regulators and researchers have struggled with the question of whether incidental findings in genomics studies should be disclosed to participants. In the ethical debate, a general consensus is that disclosed information should benefit participants. However, there is no agreement that genetic information will benefit participants, rather it may cause problems such as anxiety. One could get past this disagreement about disclosure of incidental findings by letting participants express their preferences in the consent form. We argue that this freedom of choice is problematic. In transferring the decision to participants, it is assumed that participants will understand what they decide about and that they will express what they truly want. However, psychological findings about people's reaction to probabilities and risk have been shown to involve both cognitive and emotional challenges. People change their attitude to risk depending on what is at stake. Their mood affects judgments and choices, and they over‐ and underestimate probabilities depending on whether they are low or high. Moreover, different framing of the options can steer people to a specific choice. Although it seems attractive to let participants express their preferences to incidental findings in the consent form, it is uncertain if this choice enables people to express what they truly prefer. In order to better understand the participants' preferences, we argue that future empirical work needs to confront the participant with the complexity of the uncertainty and the trade‐offs that are connected with the uncertain predictive value of genetic risk information.     

Optimal risky choice in humans: effects of amount of variability

The present study investigated whether the predictions of an optimal risk-sensitive foraging model (the energy-budget rule) would extend to humans’ choices between high- and low-variance monetary response options. In Experiment 1, participants were presented with repeated choices between two options that had the same mean values but different variances across positive- and negative-budget conditions. In Experiment 2, a within-subject comparison was conducted to investigate choice under positive- and negative-budget conditions when the options were either (a) a fixed option and a high-variance option, or (b) a low-variance option and a high-variance option. Session-wide choices were analyzed in relation to the predictions of the energy-budget rule and sequential choices were analyzed with dynamic optimization modeling. When both options were variable choice was generally consistent with predictions of the energy-budget rule and was more risk prone under negative-budget than positive-budget conditions. Sequential choices were sensitive to local budget conditions, but choices were less consistent with optimality when both options were variable, possibly because of the greater similarity in expected earnings for optimal and nonoptimal choices in these conditions. Overall, the results provide further evidence that the energy-budget rule may have broad applicability and that it can extend to human risky choice between multiple variable response options.     

Keeping up with the Joneses: Interpersonal Prediction Errors and the Correlation of Behavior in a Tandem Sequential Choice Task

In many settings, copying, learning from or assigning value to group behavior is rational because such behavior can often act as a proxy for valuable returns. However, such herd behavior can also be pathologically misleading by coaxing individuals into behaviors that are otherwise irrational and it may be one source of the irrational behaviors underlying market bubbles and crashes. Using a two-person tandem investment game, we sought to examine the neural and behavioral responses of herd instincts in situations stripped of the incentive to be influenced by the choices of one''s partner. We show that the investments of the two subjects correlate over time if they are made aware of their partner''s choices even though these choices have no impact on either player''s earnings. We computed an “interpersonal prediction error”, the difference between the investment decisions of the two subjects after each choice. BOLD responses in the striatum, implicated in valuation and action selection, were highly correlated with this interpersonal prediction error. The revelation of the partner''s investment occurred after all useful information about the market had already been revealed. This effect was confirmed in two separate experiments where the impact of the time of revelation of the partner''s choice was tested at 2 seconds and 6 seconds after a subject''s choice; however, the effect was absent in a control condition with a computer partner. These findings strongly support the existence of mechanisms that drive correlated behavior even in contexts where there is no explicit advantage to do so.     

Nationalism,ethnicity, and language choice: The effect of Nazi assimilationist policies in Alsace, 1940–1945

This article examines the complex interaction of nationalism, ethnicity and language during and after the 1940–45 Nazi occupation of Alsace. It focuses on the structure and texture of intergroup relations between Nazis and Alsatians, and analyses Alsatian claims that Nazi authorities did more for the cause of France and of the French language than two and a half centuries of previous French rule. It argues that in situations of intergroup contact, the role of cultural and linguistic similarity in predicting behaviour is secondary to the powerful effects of group self‐perception, perception of others, purposes, power, and identity/language choices. It shows that while historical and social contexts influence or determine language use, choice of language, in turn, offers significant clues about the perception of and reaction to particular circumstances. After World War II Alsatians felt the need to affirm their allegiance to France and to differentiate themselves from their former occupiers. These factors can be seen as an important cause of Alsatian acquiescence to French postwar assimilationist policies, and of the decline of the German dialect that has been spoken there for fifteen centuries.     

State-dependent decisions cause apparent violations of rationality in animal choice

Normative models of choice in economics and biology usually expect preferences to be consistent across contexts, or “rational” in economic language. Following a large body of literature reporting economically irrational behaviour in humans, breaches of rationality by animals have also been recently described. If proven systematic, these findings would challenge long-standing biological approaches to behavioural theorising, and suggest that cognitive processes similar to those claimed to cause irrationality in humans can also hinder optimality approaches to modelling animal preferences. Critical differences between human and animal experiments have not, however, been sufficiently acknowledged. While humans can be instructed conceptually about the choice problem, animals need to be trained by repeated exposure to all contingencies. This exposure often leads to differences in state between treatments, hence changing choices while preserving rationality. We report experiments with European starlings demonstrating that apparent breaches of rationality can result from state-dependence. We show that adding an inferior alternative to a choice set (a “decoy”) affects choices, an effect previously interpreted as indicating irrationality. However, these effects appear and disappear depending on whether state differences between choice contexts are present or not. These results open the possibility that some expressions of maladaptive behaviour are due to oversights in the migration of ideas between economics and biology, and suggest that key differences between human and nonhuman research must be recognised if ideas are to safely travel between these fields.     

First,do no harm: Generalized procreative non‐maleficence

New reproductive technologies allow parents some choice over their children. Various moral principles have been suggested to regulate such choices. This article starts from a discussion of Julian Savulescu's Principle of Procreative Beneficence (PPB), according to which parents ought to choose the child expected to have the best quality of life, before combining two previously separate lines of attack against this principle. First, it is suggested that the appropriate moral principles of guiding reproductive choices ought to focus on general wellbeing rather than prioritizing that of the child and, second, that they ought to be non‐maximizing (e.g. seeking the ‘good enough’ or to avoid harm). Though neither of these suggestions is entirely novel, combining them results in a new, and arguably more plausible, principle to regulate procreative choices, which I call the Principle of Generalized Procreative Non‐Maleficence (PGPNM). According to this principle, the primary obligation on parents is not to cause harm to other people through their reproductive choices.     

Optimal experiment selection for parameter estimation in biological differential equation models

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Parameter estimation in biological models is a common yet challenging problem. In this work we explore the problem for gene regulatory networks modeled by differential equations with unknown parameters, such as decay rates, reaction rates, Michaelis-Menten constants, and Hill coefficients. We explore the question to what extent parameters can be efficiently estimated by appropriate experimental selection. RESULTS: A minimization formulation is used to find the parameter values that best fit the experiment data. When the data is insufficient, the minimization problem often has many local minima that fit the data reasonably well. We show that selecting a new experiment based on the local Fisher Information of one local minimum generates additional data that allows one to successfully discriminate among the many local minima. The parameters can be estimated to high accuracy by iteratively performing minimization and experiment selection. We show that the experiment choices are roughly independent of which local minima is used to calculate the local Fisher Information. CONCLUSIONS: We show that by an appropriate choice of experiments, one can, in principle, efficiently and accurately estimate all the parameters of gene regulatory network. In addition, we demonstrate that appropriate experiment selection can also allow one to restrict model predictions without constraining the parameters using many fewer experiments. We suggest that predicting model behaviors and inferring parameters represent two different approaches to model calibration with different requirements on data and experimental cost.     

You Can't Not Choose: Embracing the Role of Choice in Ecological Restoration

From the moment of its inception, human choice about how to treat the environment is a key part of ecological restoration. Because many, if not most, restoration projects require continual management once established, human choice remains a vital component of restoration projects for their entire life. But ecological restorationists often downplay the role of choice in restoration, partly because we see the choice to restore as obvious and inherently good and partly because we feel the restoration of more natural conditions for a habitat will lessen the impact of human choice over time. Some critics feel the role of human choice in restoration degrades the value of restoration. However, another response to human choice in restoration is to embrace choice, even with the problems it brings, and use choice as a way to more fully engage humans with the environment. If such choices are approached carefully, with recognition of the potential for poor choices, then restorationists can arrive at restorations that are better for both the environment and us.     

Influence of environmental and colony factors on the initial commodity choice of foragers of the stingless bee Plebeia tobagoensis (Hymenoptera, Meliponini)

Novice foragers of social bees have to decide what food commodity to collect when they start foraging for the first time. In this decision making process two types of factors are involved: internal factors (the response threshold) and external factors (environmental and colony conditions). In this study we will focus on the importance of two external factors, pollen storage level and information from experienced foragers about food availability in the field, on the initial commodity choice of foragers of the stingless bee species Plebeia tobagoensis. We also studied the effect of the initial choice of individuals on their subsequent foraging career. This study was performed in a closed greenhouse compartment, where food availability and colony condition could be controlled. Information on food availability in the field from experienced foragers and pollen storage level both greatly influenced the initial commodity choice of individuals, with more choices for the commodity communicated by experienced foragers or lacking in storage. The initial choice of foragers is of importance for their future foraging career, although a substantial proportion of foragers did switch between food commodities. Because of the ability of novice foragers to become flexibly distributed over foraging tasks, social bees are able to react to changes in their environment without directly having to decrease foraging effort devoted to other foraging tasks. This, in combination with individual flexibility during foraging careers makes it possible for colonies of P. tobagoensis to forage efficiently in an ever-changing environment. Received 7 November 2005; revised 12 January 2006; accepted 16 February 2006.     

Evidence for social role in a dolphin social network

Social animals have to take into consideration the behaviour of conspecifics when making decisions to go by their daily lives. These decisions affect their fitness and there is therefore an evolutionary pressure to try making the right choices. In many instances individuals will make their own choices and the behaviour of the group will be a democratic integration of everyone’s decision. However, in some instances it can be advantageous to follow the choice of a few individuals in the group if they have more information regarding the situation that has arisen. Here I provide early evidence that decisions about shifts in activity states in a population of bottlenose dolphin follow such a decision-making process. This unshared consensus is mediated by a non-vocal signal, which can be communicated globally within the dolphin school. These signals are emitted by individuals that tend to have more information about the behaviour of potential competitors because of their position in the social network. I hypothesise that this decision-making process emerged from the social structure of the population and the need to maintain mixed-sex schools.     

Fixation patterns in simple choice reflect optimal information sampling

Simple choices (e.g., eating an apple vs. an orange) are made by integrating noisy evidence that is sampled over time and influenced by visual attention; as a result, fluctuations in visual attention can affect choices. But what determines what is fixated and when? To address this question, we model the decision process for simple choice as an information sampling problem, and approximate the optimal sampling policy. We find that it is optimal to sample from options whose value estimates are both high and uncertain. Furthermore, the optimal policy provides a reasonable account of fixations and choices in binary and trinary simple choice, as well as the differences between the two cases. Overall, the results show that the fixation process during simple choice is influenced dynamically by the value estimates computed during the decision process, in a manner consistent with optimal information sampling.     

Design and Analysis of Simple Choice Surveys for Natural Resource Management

Abstract: We used a simple yet powerful method for judging public support for management actions from randomized surveys. We asked respondents to rank choices (representing management regulations under consideration) according to their preference, and we then used discrete choice models to estimate probability of choosing among options (conditional on the set of options presented to respondents). Because choices may share similar unmodeled characteristics, the multinomial logit model, commonly applied to discrete choice data, may not be appropriate. We introduced the nested logit model, which offers a simple approach for incorporating correlation among choices. This forced choice survey approach provides a useful method of gathering public input; it is relatively easy to apply in practice, and the data are likely to be more informative than asking constituents to rate attractiveness of each option separately.     

Life cycle assessment of biofuels: Energy and greenhouse gas balances

The promotion of biofuels as energy for transportation in the industrialized countries is mainly driven by the perspective of oil depletion, the concerns about energy security and global warming. However due to sustainability constraints, biofuels will replace only 10 to 15% of fossil liquid fuels in the transport sector. Several governments have defined a minimum target of GHG emissions reduction for those biofuels that will be eligible to public incentives, for example a 35% emissions reduction in case of biofuels in Members States of the European Union. This article points out the significant biases in estimating GHG balances of biofuels stemming from modelling choices about system definition and boundaries, functional unit, reference systems and allocation methods. The extent to which these choices influence the results is investigated. After performing a comparison and constructive criticism of various modelling choices, the LCA of wheat-to-bioethanol is used as an illustrative case where bioethanol is blended with gasoline at various percentages (E5, E10 and E85). The performance of these substitution options is evaluated as well. The results show a large difference in the reduction of the GHG emissions with a high sensitivity to the following factors: the method used to allocate the impacts between the co-products, the type of reference systems, the choice of the functional unit and the type of blend. The authors come out with some recommendations for basing the estimation of energy and GHG balances of biofuels on principles such as transparency, consistency and accuracy.     

VARIATION IN MATE CHOICE AND MATING PREFERENCES: A REVIEW OF CAUSES AND CONSEQUENCES

The aim of this review is to consider variation in mating p among females. We define mating p as the sensory and behavioural properties that influence the propensity of individuals to mate with certain phenotypes. Two properties of mating p can be distinguished: (i) ‘preference functions’–the order with which an individual ranks prospective mates and (2)‘choosiness’ -the effort an individual is prepared to invest in mate assessment. Patterns of mate choices can be altered by changing the costs of choosiness without altering the preference function. We discuss why it is important to study variation in female mating behaviour and identify five main areas of interest: Variation in mating p and costs of choosiness could (i) influence the rate and direction of evolution by sexual selection, (2) provide information about the evolutionary history of female p, (3) help explain inter-specific differences in the evolution of secondary sexual characteristics, (4) provide information about the level of benefits gained from mate choice, (5) provide information about the underlying mechanisms of mate choice. Variation in mate choice could be due to variability in preference functions, degree of choosiness, or both, and may arise due to genetic differences, developmental trajectories or proximate environmental factors. We review the evidence for genetic variation from genetic studies of heritability and also from data on the repeatability of mate-choice decisions (which can provide information about the upper limits to heritability). There can be problems in interpreting patterns of mate choice in terms of variation in mating p and we illustrate two main points. First, some factors can lead to mate choice patterns that mimic heritable variation in p and secondly other factors may obscure heritable p. These factors are divided into three overlapping classes, environmental, social and the effect of the female phenotype. The environmental factors discussed include predation risk and the costs of sampling; the social factors discussed include the effect of male–male interactions as well as female competition. We review the literature which presents data on how females sample males and discuss the number of cues females use. We conclude that sexual-selection studies have paid far less attention to variation among females than to variation among males, and that there is still much to learn about how females choose males and why different females make different choices. We suggest a number of possible lines for future research.     

The role of mate‐choice copying in speciation and hybridization

Mate‐choice copying, a social, non‐genetic mechanism of mate choice, occurs when an individual (typically a female) copies the mate choice of other individuals via a process of social learning. Over the past 20 years, mate‐choice copying has consistently been shown to affect mate choice in several species, by altering the genetically based expression of mating preferences. This behaviour has been claimed by several authors to have a significant role in evolution. Because it can cause or increase skews in male mating success, it seems to have the potential to induce a rapid change of the directionality and rate of sexual selection, possibly leading to divergent evolution and speciation. Theoretical work has, however, been challenging this view, showing that copying may decelerate sexual selection and that linkage disequilibrium cannot be established between the copied preference and the male trait, because females copy from unrelated individuals in the population, making an invasion of new and potentially fitter male traits difficult. Given this controversy, it is timely to ask about the real impact of mate‐choice copying in speciation. We propose that a solution to this impasse may be the existence of some degree of habitat selection, which would create a spatial structure, causing scenarios of micro‐allopatry and thus overcoming the problem of the lack of linkage disequilibrium. As far as we are aware, the potential role of mate‐choice copying on fostering speciation in micro‐allopatry has not been tackled. Also important is that the role of mate‐choice copying has generally been discussed as being a barrier to gene flow. However, in our view, mate‐choice copying may actually play a key role in facilitating gene flow, thereby fostering hybridization. Yet, the role of mate‐choice copying in hybridization has so far been overlooked, although the conditions under which it might occur are more likely, or less restricted, than those favouring speciation. Hence, a conceptual framework is needed to identify the exact mechanisms and the conditions under which speciation or hybridization are expected. Here, we develop such a framework to be used as a roadmap for future research at the intersection of these research areas.     

Patients' prerogatives and perceptions of benefit.

Patients today demand more information about their treatment. Doctors, however, seem reluctant to cast aside ingrained habits of paternalism, believing they can best interpret therapeutic choices for their patients. Whether doctors can be more objective and effective than patients in interpreting the "probabilities" of medical evidence is open to question. On the other hand, the exercise of choice by patients may itself have a bearing on the probabilities of outcome. Involving patients more in making therapeutic choices is justified if doctors can present options in an unbiased and effective manner and if the process improves the outcome of the care delivered.     

Choice in multi-alternative environments: A trial-by-trial implementation of the Sequential Choice Model

The sequential choice model (SCM) proposes that latencies to accept options presented alone can be used to predict preferences between these options when they are presented simultaneously. SCM has been proposed and tested in experiments where only two alternatives were present. To further challenge the model, we trained and tested European starlings (Sturnus vulgaris) in an environment with a background of four alternatives differing in delay to reinforcement. Unexpected binary choices between the six possible pairs of alternatives were used to assess preference. The model's predictions of the strength of preference roughly corresponded to the bird's choices for each of the six choice situations. More importantly, a trial-by-trial test of the model correctly predicted 84% of all individual choice trials.     

Regression analysis of longitudinal binary data with time-dependent environmental covariates: bias and efficiency

Generalized estimating equations (Liang and Zeger, 1986) is a widely used, moment-based procedure to estimate marginal regression parameters. However, a subtle and often overlooked point is that valid inference requires the mean for the response at time t to be expressed properly as a function of the complete past, present, and future values of any time-varying covariate. For example, with environmental exposures it may be necessary to express the response as a function of multiple lagged values of the covariate series. Despite the fact that multiple lagged covariates may be predictive of outcomes, researchers often focus interest on parameters in a 'cross-sectional' model, where the response is expressed as a function of a single lag in the covariate series. Cross-sectional models yield parameters with simple interpretations and avoid issues of collinearity associated with multiple lagged values of a covariate. Pepe and Anderson (1994), showed that parameter estimates for time-varying covariates may be biased unless the mean, given all past, present, and future covariate values, is equal to the cross-sectional mean or unless independence estimating equations are used. Although working independence avoids potential bias, many authors have shown that a poor choice for the response correlation model can lead to highly inefficient parameter estimates. The purpose of this paper is to study the bias-efficiency trade-off associated with working correlation choices for application with binary response data. We investigate data characteristics or design features (e.g. cluster size, overall response association, functional form of the response association, covariate distribution, and others) that influence the small and large sample characteristics of parameter estimates obtained from several different weighting schemes or equivalently 'working' covariance models. We find that the impact of covariance model choice depends highly on the specific structure of the data features, and that key aspects should be examined before choosing a weighting scheme.