Density‐independent predation affects migrants and residents equally in a declining partially migratory elk population

Migration is expected to benefit individuals through exposure to higher quality forage and reducing predation rates more than non‐migratory conspecifics. Previous studies of partially migratory ungulates (with migrant and resident individuals) have focused on bottom–up factors regulating resident and migrant segments, yet differential predation between strategies could also be a density‐dependent regulatory mechanism. Our study tested for density‐dependence in mortality, as well as mechanisms of ­bottom–up or top–down regulation in the resident and migrant portions of the partially migratory Ya Ha Tinda elk population. We tested for density dependence in adult female and juvenile survival rates, and then discriminated between predator‐ and food‐regulation hypotheses by testing for density‐dependence amongst mortality causes for adult female elk. Notably, the population declined almost 70% from near previously published estimates of carrying capacity over 10 years, providing ideal conditions to test for density dependence. In contrast to predictions, we found only weak support for density dependence in adult survival and juvenile survival. We also found few differences between migrant and resident elk in adult or juvenile survival, though juvenile survival differences were biologically significant. Predation by humans and grizzly bears was density dependent, but similar between migratory strategies. Predation by wolves was the leading known cause of mortality, yet remained constant with declining elk density equally for both migrant and resident elk, indicating wolf predation was density‐independent. Instead of being strongly regulated by food or predation, we found adult female survival was driven by density‐independent predation and climatic factors. The few differences between migratory strategies suggest equivalent fitness payoffs for migrants and residents. This population is being limited by density‐independent predation leading to declines of both migratory strategies. Our results challenge classical predator–prey theory, and call for better integration between predator–prey and migration theory.     

Demographic balancing of migrant and resident elk in a partially migratory population through forage–predation tradeoffs

Partial migration is widespread in ungulates, yet few studies have assessed demographic mechanisms for how these alternative strategies are maintained in populations. Over the past two decades the number of resident individuals of the Ya Ha Tinda elk herd near Banff National Park has been increasing proportionally despite an overall population decline. We compared demographic rates of migrant and resident elk to test for demographic mechanisms partial migration. We determined adult female survival for 132 elk, pregnancy rates for 150 female elk, and elk calf survival for 79 calves. Population vital rates were combined in Leslie‐matrix models to estimate demographic fitness, which we defined as the migration strategy‐specific population growth rate. We also tested for differences in factors influencing risk of mortality between migratory strategies for adult females using Cox‐proportional hazards regression and time‐varying covariates of exposure to forage biomass, wolf predation risk, and group size. Despite higher pregnancy rates and winter calf weights associated with higher forage quality, survival of migrant adult females and calves were lower than resident elk. Resident elk traded high quality food to reduce predation risk by selecting areas close to human activity, and by living in group sizes 20% larger than migrants. Thus, residents experienced higher adult female survival and calf survival, but lower pregnancy and calf weights. Cause‐specific mortality of migrants was dominated by wolf and grizzly bear mortality, whereas resident mortality was dominated by human hunting. Demographic differences translated into slightly higher (2–3%), but non‐significant, resident population growth rate compared to migrant elk, suggesting demographic balancing between resident strategies during our study. Despite statistical equivalence, our results are also consistent with slow long‐term declines in migrants because of high predation because of higher wolf‐caused mortality in migrants. These results emphasize that migrants and residents will make different tradeoffs between forage and risk may affect the demographic balance of partially migratory populations, which may explain recent declines in migratory behavior in many ungulate populations around the world.     

Migratory connectivity of Palaearctic–African migratory birds and their responses to environmental change: the serial residency hypothesis

In most long‐distance migratory birds, juveniles migrate without their parents and so are likely to lack detailed knowledge of where to go. This suggests the potential for stochasticity to affect their choice of wintering area at a large scale (> 1000 km). Adults, in contrast, may re‐use non‐breeding sites that promote their survival, so removing uncertainty from their subsequent migrations. I review the evidence for large‐scale stochastic juvenile site selection followed by adult site fidelity, and then develop a ‘serial‐residency’ hypothesis based on these two traits as a framework to explain both the migratory connectivity and the population dynamics of migrant birds and how these are affected by environmental change. Juvenile stochasticity is apparent in the age‐dependent effects of weather or experimental displacement on the outcome of migration and in the very wide variation in the destinations of individuals originating from the same area. Adults have been shown to be very faithful to their wintering grounds and even to staging sites. The serial residency hypothesis predicts that migrants that show these two traits will rely on an individually unique but fixed series of temporally and spatially linked sites to complete their annual cycle. As a consequence, migratory connectivity will be apparent at a very small scale for individuals, but only at a large scale for a population, and juveniles are predicted to occur more often at less suitable sites than adults, so that survival will be lower for juveniles. Migratory connectivity will arise only through spatial and temporal autocorrelation with local environmental constraints, particularly on passage, and the distribution and age structure of the population may reflect past environmental constraints. At least some juveniles will discover suitable habitat that they may re‐use as adults, thus promoting overall population‐level resilience to environmental change, and suggesting value in site‐based conservation. However, because migratory connectivity only acts on a large scale, any population of migrants will contain individuals that encounter a change in suitability somewhere in their non‐breeding range, so affecting average survival. Differences in population trends will therefore reflect variation in local breeding output added to average survival from wintering and staging areas. The latter is likely to be declining given increasing levels of environmental degradation throughout Africa. Large‐scale migratory connectivity also has implications for the evolutionary ecology of migrants, generally because this is likely to lead to selection for generalist traits.     

Perceived wintering latitude determines timing of song output in a migratory bird

Migratory bird populations frequently consist of individuals that overwinter variable distances from the breeding site. Seasonal changes in photoperiod, which varies with latitude, underlie seasonal changes in singing frequency in birds. Therefore, migratory populations that consist of individuals that overwinter at different latitudes with large overwintering ranges could experience within‐population variation in seasonal production of song. To test the influence of overwintering latitude on intrapopulation variance in song production in the spring, we subjected two groups of Eastern Song Sparrows (Melospiza melodia melodia) from the same partially migratory breeding population to different photoperiodic schedules associated with a 1,300‐km difference in overwintering location. One group remained on the natural photoperiodic schedule of the breeding site (resident group) while the other group experienced a nonbreeding photoperiod that mimicked a southern migration in the fall followed by a northern migration back to the breeding site in the spring (migratory group). We compared song output between the two groups in three different stages (nonbreeding, prebreeding, and breeding). Little singing occurred during nonbreeding stage sample dates (20 November, 6 December) for the resident group, and no singing occurred for the migrant group. During the prebreeding stage (27 January, 7 February), significantly more singing occurred in the resident group than in the migrant group. During the breeding stage (21 March, 4 April), after a simulated migration for the migrants, song output was similar in both groups. These results suggest that within‐population variation in wintering latitude may contribute to variation in seasonal changes in singing behavior, which may covary with readiness to breed. Studies utilizing confirmed migrants and residents, rather than merely simulated migrants and residents, are also needed to better understand these processes.     

Across a migratory divide: divergent migration directions and non‐breeding grounds of Eurasian reed warblers revealed by geolocators and stable isotopes

Migratory divides represent narrow zones of overlap between parapatric populations with distinct migration directions and, consequently, expected divergent non‐breeding distributions. The composition of the mixed population at a migratory divide and the corresponding non‐breeding ranges remain, however, unknown for many Palaearctic‐African migrants. Here, we used light‐level geolocation to track migration direction and non‐breeding grounds of Eurasian reed warblers Acrocephalus scirpaceus from three breeding populations across the species’ migratory divide. Moreover, by using feathers grown at non‐breeding grounds, we quantified stable isotope composition for individuals with known southwestern (SW) and southeastern (SE) migration directions. On a larger sample per population, we then assessed the proportions of SW‐ and SE‐migrating phenotypes in each of the three populations. All tracked reed warblers from Germany and two thirds of the birds tagged from the Czech population headed initially SW. Nevertheless, about one third of the birds from the Czech site migrated towards SE. No tracking data have been obtained for the Bulgarian population. The initial migration direction determined by geolocators was a strong predictor of the non‐breeding region, with SW migrants staying in west Africa and SE migrants in central Africa. Feather δ³⁴S and δ¹⁵N values confirmed the predominance of SW migrants in the German population, the co‐occurrence of SW and SE migrants in the Czech population, and indicated a high (72%) proportion of SE migrants in the Bulgarian population. Thus, the combined approach of geolocator tracking and stable isotopic assignments provided clear evidence for the existence of a migratory divide in the southeast of central Europe and predicted non‐breeding range in central and central‐eastern Africa for the eastern population.     

Wing size but not wing shape is related to migratory behavior in a soaring bird

Both wing size and wing shape affect the flight abilities of birds. Intra and inter‐specific studies have revealed a pattern where high aspect ratio and low wing loading favour migratory behaviour. This, however, have not been studied in soaring migrants. We assessed the relationship between the wing size and shape and the characteristics of the migratory habits of the turkey vulture Cathartes aura, an obligate soaring migrant. We compared wing size and shape with migration strategy among three fully migratory, one partially migratory and one non‐migratory (resident) population distributed across the American continent. We calculated the aspect ratio and wing loading using wing tracings to characterize the wing morphology. We used satellite‐tracking data from the migratory populations to calculate distance, duration, speed and altitude during migration. Wing loading, but not aspect ratio, differed among the populations, segregating the resident population from the completely migratory ones. Unlike what has been reported in species using flapping flight during migration, the migratory flight parameters of turkey vultures were not related to the aspect ratio. By contrast, wing loading was related to most flight parameters. Birds with lower wing loading flew farther, faster, and higher during their longer journeys. Our results suggest that wing morphology in this soaring species enables lower‐cost flight, through low wing‐loading, and that differences in the relative sizes of wings may increase extra savings during migration. The possibility that wing shape is influenced by foraging as well as migratory flight is discussed. We conclude that flight efficiency may be improved through different morphological adaptations in birds with different flight mechanisms.     

Migratory diversity predicts population declines in birds

Declines in migratory species are a pressing concern worldwide, but the mechanisms underpinning these declines are not fully understood. We hypothesised that species with greater within‐population variability in migratory movements and destinations, here termed ‘migratory diversity’, might be more resilient to environmental change. To test this, we related map‐based metrics of migratory diversity to recent population trends for 340 European breeding birds. Species that occupy larger non‐breeding ranges relative to breeding, a characteristic we term ‘migratory dispersion’, were less likely to be declining than those with more restricted non‐breeding ranges. Species with partial migration strategies (i.e. overlapping breeding and non‐breeding ranges) were also less likely to be declining than full migrants or full residents, an effect that was independent of migration distance. Recent rates of advancement in Europe‐wide spring arrival date were greater for partial migrants than full migrants, suggesting that migratory diversity may also help facilitate species responses to climate change.     

Recent population declines in Afro‐Palaearctic migratory birds: the influence of breeding and non‐breeding seasons

Aim

Recent, rapid population declines in many Afro‐Palaearctic migratory bird species have focussed attention on changing conditions within Africa. However, processes influencing population change can operate throughout the annual cycle and throughout migratory ranges. Here, we explore the evidence for impacts of breeding and non‐breeding conditions on population trends of British breeding birds of varying migratory status and wintering ecology.

Location

Great Britain (England & Scotland).

Methods

Within‐ and between‐species variation in population trends is quantified for 46 bird species with differing migration strategies.

Results

Between 1994 and 2007, rates of population change in Scotland and England differed significantly for 19 resident and 15 long‐distance migrant species, but were similar for 12 short‐distance migrant species. Of the six long‐distance migrant species that winter in the arid zone of Africa, five are increasing in abundance throughout Britain. In contrast, the seven species wintering in the humid zone of Africa are all declining in England, but five of these are increasing in Scotland. Consequently, populations of both arid and humid zone species are increasing significantly faster in Scotland than England, and only the English breeding populations of species wintering in the humid zone are declining.

Main conclusions

Population declines in long‐distance migrants, especially those wintering in the humid zone, but not residents or short‐distance migrants suggest an influence of non‐breeding season conditions on population trends. However, the consistently less favourable population trends in England than Scotland of long‐distance migrant and resident species strongly suggest that variation in the quality of breeding grounds is influencing recent population changes. The declines in humid zone species in England, but not Scotland, may result from poorer breeding conditions in England exacerbating the impacts of non‐breeding conditions or the costs associated with a longer migration, while better conditions in Scotland may be buffering these impacts.

     

Heritability and physiological correlates of migratory tendency in the grasshopper Melanoplus sanguinipes

Abstract. Durations of tethered flights by the North American migratory grasshopper Melanoplus sanguinipes Fabricius are bimodally distributed: most individuals either will not fly, or else will fly for many hours. This observation suggests a simple measure (the ‘one‐hour rule’) for distinguishing migrants from non‐migrants. This measure is repeatable (repeatability = 0.6–0.7). Using laboratory‐reared offspring of grasshoppers from an Arizona population of mixed migratory tendency, a breeding experiment was conducted to determine the heritability of migratory tendency and possible correlated responses to selection on migratory behaviour. When migratory tendency is considered as a threshold trait, the heritability of liability is in the range 0.5–0.6. Most families in the breeding experiment had at least some migrants among their offspring; selection on migratory incidence had a correlated effect on the durations of flights by these individuals. The magnitude of thoracic lipid reserves showed a modest correlated response to selection on migratory behaviour. Thoracic and abdominal lipid reserves in identified migrants are reduced by flight, indicating that lipid is mobilized and consumed during flight in this species.     

Contrasting consequences of climate change for migratory geese: Predation,density dependence and carryover effects offset benefits of high‐arctic warming

Climate change is most rapid in the Arctic, posing both benefits and challenges for migratory herbivores. However, population‐dynamic responses to climate change are generally difficult to predict, due to concurrent changes in other trophic levels. Migratory species are also exposed to contrasting climate trends and density regimes over the annual cycle. Thus, determining how climate change impacts their population dynamics requires an understanding of how weather directly or indirectly (through trophic interactions and carryover effects) affects reproduction and survival across migratory stages, while accounting for density dependence. Here, we analyse the overall implications of climate change for a local non‐hunted population of high‐arctic Svalbard barnacle geese, Branta leucopsis, using 28 years of individual‐based data. By identifying the main drivers of reproductive stages (egg production, hatching and fledging) and age‐specific survival rates, we quantify their impact on population growth. Recent climate change in Svalbard enhanced egg production and hatching success through positive effects of advanced spring onset (snow melt) and warmer summers (i.e. earlier vegetation green‐up) respectively. Contrastingly, there was a strong temporal decline in fledging probability due to increased local abundance of the Arctic fox, the main predator. While weather during the non‐breeding season influenced geese through a positive effect of temperature (UK wintering grounds) on adult survival and a positive carryover effect of rainfall (spring stopover site in Norway) on egg production, these covariates showed no temporal trends. However, density‐dependent effects occurred throughout the annual cycle, and the steadily increasing total flyway population size caused negative trends in overwinter survival and carryover effects on egg production. The combination of density‐dependent processes and direct and indirect climate change effects across life history stages appeared to stabilize local population size. Our study emphasizes the need for holistic approaches when studying population‐dynamic responses to global change in migratory species.     

The biosynthesis of Juvenile Hormone, its degradation and titres in females of the true armyworm: a comparison of migratory and non-migratory populations

In a previous study [ McNeil et al. (1996) Archives of Insect Biochemistry and Physiology, 32, 575–584], patterns of sexual maturation and Juvenile Hormone (JH) biosynthesis were compared in virgin females from migratory (North American) and non‐migratory (Azorean) populations of the true armyworm moth, Pseudaletia unipuncta Haworth (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae). Sexual maturation occurred at a significantly earlier age after emergence in the non‐migrant population, and the rates of biosynthesis of JH in vitro suggested that lower titres of JH may be required to initiate the onset of calling behaviour (pheromone emission) and ovarian development in Azorean females. To examine the physiological differences in the reproductive biology of migratory and non‐migratory populations in greater detail, the haemolymph titres of JH and JH esterase activity were compared in virgin females as a function of age. In addition, the effects of mating on JH biosynthesis in vitro, JH titres, JH esterase activity and egg production were measured in the two populations. As expected, JH titres rose more rapidly after emergence in Azorean females than in their North American counterparts but, contrary to our prediction, the maximum levels were also higher in the non‐migrant population. Activity of JH esterase was much higher in Azorean females on the day of emergence. However, by the second day both populations had similar activity levels (about 17 nmol JH/min/ml) and exhibited a similar age‐related decline in subsequent days. Mating did not affect the rate of JH biosynthesis in vitro but resulted in a significant increase in the titres of JH in the haemolymph of both populations. The maximum titre (a five‐fold increase) occurred within 24 h of mating in Azorean females. In North American individuals the increase was greater (seven‐fold) but did not occur until 48 h after mating. No difference in the activity of JH esterase was observed between mated and virgin North American females. By contrast, while there was an age‐related decline in the activity of JH esterase in mated Azorean females, as seen in both North American groups, activity levels in virgin females remained constant with age. In all females, mating resulted in a significant increase in egg production within 24 h. The Azores is a volcanic archipelago, so these non‐migratory populations were probably founded by immigrants originating from migratory continental populations. It is clear from our results that the change from a life history that includes migration to a non‐migratory one involved more than just a temporal shift in the timing of the production of JH. Furthermore, the interpopulation differences in titres of JH and mating‐induced changes reported here cannot be fully explained by the observed differences in the patterns of activity of JH esterase and JH biosynthesis in vitro.     

Extreme genetic similarity does not predict non‐breeding distribution of two closely related warblers

Detailed knowledge of migratory connectivity can facilitate effective conservation of Neotropical migrants by helping biologists understand where and when populations may be most limited. We studied the migratory behavior and non‐breeding distribution of two closely related species of conservation concern, the Golden‐winged Warbler (Vermivora chrysoptera) and Blue‐winged Warbler (Vermivora cyanoptera). Although both species have undergone dynamic range shifts and population changes attributed to habitat loss and social interactions promoting competition and hybridization, full life‐cycle conservation planning has been limited by a lack of information about their non‐breeding ecology. Because recent work has demonstrated that the two species are nearly identical genetically, we predicted that individuals from a single breeding population would have similar migratory timing and overwintering locations. In 2015, we placed light‐level geolocators on 25 males of both species and hybrids in an area of breeding sympatry at the Fort Drum Military Installation in Jefferson and Lewis counties, New York. Despite extreme genetic similarity, non‐breeding locations and duration of migration differed among genotypes. Golden‐winged Warblers (N = 2) overwintered > 1900 km southeast of the nearest Blue‐winged Warbler (N = 3) and spent nearly twice as many days in migration; hybrids (N = 2) had intermediate wintering distributions and migratory timing. Spring migration departure dates were staggered based on distance from the breeding area, and all birds arrived at the breeding site within 8 days of each other. Our results show that Golden‐winged Warblers and Blue‐winged Warblers in our study area retain species‐specific non‐breeding locations despite extreme genetic similarity, and suggest that non‐breeding locations and migratory timing vary along a genetic gradient. If the migratory period is limiting for these species, our results also suggest that Golden‐winged Warblers in our study population may be more vulnerable to population decline than Blue‐winged Warblers because they spend almost twice as many days migrating.     

Individual differences in migratory behavior shape population genetic structure and microhabitat choice in sympatric blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla)

In migratory birds, traits such as orientation and distance are known to have a strong genetic background, and they often exhibit considerable within‐population variation. How this variation relates to evolutionary responses to ongoing selection is unknown because the underlying mechanisms that translate environmental changes into population genetic changes are unclear. We show that within‐population genetic structure in southern German blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) is related to individual differences in migratory behavior. Our 3‐year study revealed a positive correlation between individual migratory origins, denoted via isotope (δ²H) values, and genetic distances. Genetic diversity and admixture differed not only across a recently established migratory polymorphism with NW‐ and SW‐migrating birds but also across δ²H clusters within the same migratory route. Our results suggest assortment based on individual migratory origins which would facilitate evolutionary responses. We scrutinized arrival times and microhabitat choice as potential mechanisms mediating between individual variation in migratory behavior and assortment. We found significant support that microhabitat choice, rather than timing of arrival, is associated with individual variation in migratory origins. Moreover, examining genetic diversity across the migratory divide, we found migrants following the NW route to be genetically more distinct from each other compared with migrants following the traditional SW route. Our study suggests that migratory behavior shapes population genetic structure in blackcaps not only across the migratory divide but also on an individual level independent of the divide. Thus, within‐population variation in migratory behavior might play an important role in translating environmental change into genetic change.     

Breeding latitude predicts timing but not rate of spring migration in a widespread migratory bird in South America

相似文献   

Migrant blackbirds,Turdus merula,have higher plasma levels of polyunsaturated fatty acids compared to residents,but not enhanced fatty acid unsaturation index

Birds have been observed to have dietary preferences for unsaturated fatty acids during migration. Polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) may increase the exercise performance of migrant birds; however, PUFAs are also peroxidation prone and might therefore incur increased costs in terms of enhanced oxidative damage in migratory individuals. To shed light on this potential constraint, we analyzed plasma fatty acid (FA) composition and estimated the unsaturation index as a proxy for susceptibility to lipid peroxidation of migrants and residents of the partially migratory common blackbird (Turdus merula) at a stopover site during autumn migration. As predicted, migrant birds had higher relative and absolute levels of PUFAs compared to resident birds. This included the strictly dietary ω‐3 PUFA α‐linolenic acid, suggesting a dietary and/or storage preference for these FAs in migrants. Interestingly, the FA unsaturation index did not differ between migrants and residents. These findings suggest a mechanism where birds alter their levels of metabolic substrate without simultaneously increasing the susceptibility of the substrate to lipid peroxidation. In summary, our results are in line with the hypothesis that increased exercise performance during migration might be constrained by oxidative stress, which is manifested in changes in the composition of key FAs to retain the unsaturation index constant despite the increased levels of peroxidizable PUFAs.     

The Flight Apparatus of Migratory and Sedentary Individuals of a Partially Migratory Songbird Species

Variations in the geometry of the external flight apparatus of birds are beneficial for different behaviors. Long-distance flight is less costly with more pointed wings and shorter tails; however these traits decrease maneuverability at low speeds. Selection has led to interspecific differences in these and other flight apparatuses in relation to migration distance. If these principles are general, how are the external flight apparatus within a partially migratory bird species shaped in which individuals either migrate or stay at their breeding grounds? We resolved this question by comparing the wing pointedness and tail length (relative to wing length) of migrant and resident European blackbirds (Turdus merula) breeding in the same population. We predicted that migrant blackbirds would have more pointed wings and shorter tails than residents. Contrary to our predictions, there were no differences between migrants and residents in either measure. Our results indicate that morphological differences between migrants and residents in this partially migratory population may be constrained.     

The effect of climate change on partial migration – the blue tit paradox

Climate change has proven to affect various aspects of the migration of birds. In response to milder winters making the habitat more profitable and increasing the survival of residents, the migratory fraction of partially migratory populations has been predicted to decline. We studied the blue tit Parus caeruleus , a common partial migrant in southern Sweden. The numbers migrating at Falsterbo, a migratory passage site in SW Sweden, has increased during the last decades, in parallel with increasing winter and annual temperatures. Migration data from Falsterbo were compared with yearly indices of the size of the breeding population as estimated by the Swedish National Bird Monitoring Programme. Over the study period 1975–2004, also the breeding population has increased in size. The proportion of blue tits migrating each year did not change over the study period, or possibly even increased slightly, which is in contrast to how climate change has been predicted to influence populations containing both migratory and resident individuals. The most important factors determining the intensity of blue tit migration in a given year was the size of an important winter food source, the beech mast crop (more migrants at lower crops) and the size of the breeding population (more migrants at higher densities).     

Summer elk calf survival in a partially migratory population

Decomposing variation in juvenile recruitment is a key component of understanding population dynamics for partially migratory ungulates. We investigated reproductive parameters of adult female elk (Cervus canadensis) with calves at heel, and survivorship, cause-specific mortality, and intrinsic and extrinsic factors affecting risk of mortality for calves in a partially migratory elk population from 2013–2016 in Alberta, Canada. Elk calves born to resident mothers had 45% lower survivorship on average compared to migrant calves (0.24 vs. 0.69) and nearly twice the mortality rate (0.37 vs. 0.19) from bears (Ursus spp.), the dominant source of mortality. Contrary to our predictions, we found that increasing levels of maternal ingesta-free body fat were associated with increasing risk of calf mortality, indicating predation may have overwhelmed nutritional effects. We found no evidence that timing of calf birth or birth weight differed between migratory tactics or influenced mortality risk. We found that as percentage of cut forest increased, risk of calf mortality marginally decreased, which benefited migrant elk that were exposed to more clear-cuts compared to residents. Exposure to bear predation risk was unimportant during the hiding phase (≤10 days after birth) for either migratory tactic, presumably because neonatal hiding behavior reduced vulnerability. In contrast, bear predation risk was important for mortality risk after 10 days in age, especially for resident elk calves, which were exposed to higher bear predation risk compared to migrants. We conclude that relative differences in bear predation between migratory tactics are contributing to the dynamics of partial migration in this population through additive effects on calf mortality. Thus, wildlife managers should anticipate that recovering grizzly bear (U. arctos) populations may substantially lower elk recruitment through effects on summer calf survival, especially in areas with diverse carnivore assemblages.     

Programmed and flexible: long‐term Zugunruhe data highlight the many axes of variation in avian migratory behaviour

Studies of Zugunruhe – the ‘migratory restlessness’ behaviour of captive birds – have been integral to our understanding of animal migration, revealing an inherited propensity to migrate and an endogenous timing and navigation system. However, differences between Zugunruhe in captivity and migration in the wild call for more data, in particular on variation within and among taxa with diverse migration strategies. Here, we characterise Zugunruhe in a long‐term dataset of activity profiles from stonechats (genus Saxicola) with diverse migratory phenotypes (976 migration periods from 414 birds), using a flexible and consistent quantitative approach based on changepoint analysis. For east African, Austrian, Irish, and Siberian stonechats and hybrids, we report key inter‐population differences in the occurrence, timing, and intensity of Zugunruhe. In line with expectations, we found the highest Zugunruhe intensity in the longest‐distance migrants, more variable patterns in short‐distance migrants, and intermediate characteristics of hybrids relative to their parental groups. Inter‐population differences imply high evolutionary lability of Zugunruhe timing within a robustly structured annual cycle. However, counter to theory, Irish partial migrants showed no segregation between migrant and resident individuals, and previously reported nocturnal restlessness was confirmed for resident African stonechats. Further features of nocturnal restlessness that did not align with migratory behaviour of stonechats were juvenile nocturnal restlessness even prior to postjuvenile moult, and protandry in spring, although stonechats winter in heterosexual pairs. Importantly, Zugunruhe of all populations declined with age, and the intensity of an individual bird's Zugunruhe was correlated with activity levels during other parts of the annual cycle. Our results confirm endogenous, population‐specific migration programmes but also reveal apparent discrepancies between Zugunruhe and migration in the wild. We thus highlight both the continued potential of Zugunruhe study and the need for circumspect interpretation when using migratory restlessness to make inferences about migration in the wild.