Do operational sex ratios influence sex allocation in viviparous lizards with temperature‐dependent sex determination?

Under certain environmental situations, selection may favour the ability of females to adjust the sex ratio of their offspring. Two recent studies have suggested that viviparous scincid lizards can modify the sex ratio of the offspring they produce in response to the operational sex ratio (OSR). Both of the species in question belong to genera that have also recently been shown to exhibit temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD). Here we test whether pregnant montane water skinks (Eulamprus tympanum) utilise TSD to select offspring sex in response to population wide imbalances in the OSR, by means of active thermoregulation. We use a combination of laboratory and field-based experiments, and conduct the first field-based test of this hypothesis by maintaining females in outdoor enclosures of varying OSR treatments throughout pregnancy. Although maternal body temperature during pregnancy was influenced by OSR, the variation in temperature was not great enough to affect litter sex ratios or any other phenotypic traits of the offspring.     

Demographic effects of temperature‐dependent sex determination: will tuatara survive global warming?

Global climate change is of particular concern for small and isolated populations of reptiles with temperature-dependent sex determination because low genetic variation can limit adaptive response in pivotal temperatures, leading to skewed sex ratios. We explore the demographic consequences of skewed sex ratios on the viability of a tuatara population characterized by low genetic diversity. We studied the rare species of tuatara ( Sphenodon guntheri ) on the 4 ha North Brother Island in New Zealand over two nesting seasons and captured 477 individuals, with a 60% male bias in the adult population. Females first breed at 15 years and have extremely low rates of gravidity, producing clutches of three to eight eggs every 9 years. Simulations of the population using population viability analysis showed that the current population is expected to persist for at least 2000 years at hatchling sex ratios of up to 75% male, but populations with 85% male hatchlings are expected to become extinct within approximately 300 years (some eight generations). Incorporation of inbreeding depression increased the probability of extinction under male biased sex ratios, with no simulated populations surviving at hatchling sex ratios >75% male. Because recent models have predicted that climate change could lead to the production of all male S. guntheri hatchlings by 2085, we examined whether periodic intervention to produce mixed or female biased sex ratios would allow the population to survive if only males were produced in natural nests. We show that intervention every 2–3 years could buffer the effects of climate change on population sex ratios, but translocation to cooler environs might be more cost-effective. Climate change threatens tuatara populations because neither modified nesting behaviour nor adaptive response of the pivotal temperature can modify hatchling sex ratios fast enough in species with long generation intervals.     

How do species respond to climate change along an elevation gradient? A case study of the grey‐headed robin (Heteromyias albispecularis)

Climate is predicted to change rapidly in the current century, which may lead to shifts of species' ranges, reduced populations and extinctions. Predicting the responses of species abundance to climate change can provide valuable information to quantify climate change impacts and inform their management and conservation, but most studies have been limited to changes in habitat area due to a lack of abundance data. Here, we use generalized linear model and Bayesian information criteria to develop a predictive model based on the abundance of the grey‐headed robin (GHR) and the data of climatic environmental variables. The model is validated by leave‐one‐out cross‐validation and equivalence tests. The responses of GHR abundance, population size and habitat area by elevation are predicted under the current climate and 15 climate change scenarios. The model predicts that when temperature increases, abundance of GHR displays a positive response at high elevation, but a negative response at low elevation. High precipitation at the higher elevations is a limiting factor to GHR and any reduction in precipitation at high elevation creates a more suitable environment, leading to an increase in abundance of GHR, whereas changes in precipitation have little impact at low elevation. The loss of habitat is much more than would otherwise be assumed in response to climate change. Temperature increase is the predominant factor leading to habitat loss, whereas changes in precipitation play a secondary role. When climate changes, the species not only loses part of its habitat but also suffers a loss in its population size in the remaining habitat. Population size declines more than the habitat area under all considered climate change scenarios, which implies that the species might become extinct long before the complete loss of its habitat. This study suggests that some species might experience much more severe impacts from climate change than predicted from models of habitat area alone. Management policies based on predictions of habitat area decline using occurrence data need to be re‐evaluated and alternative measures need to be developed to conserve species in the face of rapid climate change.     

Will pre‐adaptation buffer the impacts of climate change on novel species interactions?

Species are expected to alter their ranges as climates change. Climate‐induced range expansions of predators could threaten evolutionarily naïve prey populations, leading to high mortality at the invasion front. If prey can apply existing defenses against local predators to novel predation threats induced by climate change, mortality threats will be less than expected. Here, we examine if spotted salamander larvae Ambystoma maculatum from populations that coexist with native red‐spotted newts Notophthalmus viridescens survive better when exposed to a novel predator, the marbled salamander Ambystoma opacum. We show that regional mean winter temperatures warmed 2.0°C over 116 yr in the region, and that A. opacum survival increases in ponds with higher winter temperatures. Hence as winters continue to warm, this apex predator will likely colonize ponds north of their current range limit. Next, we performed common garden experiments to determine if local adaptations to native N. viridescens and exposure to A. opacum or N. viridescens kairomones (predator chemical cues) altered A. maculatum survival in predation trials. We did not find evidence for local adaptation to N. viridescens. However, A. maculatum from high‐N. viridescens ponds that were reared with A. opacum kairomones suffered significantly higher mortality from the native predator N. viridescens. This outcome suggests an unanticipated interaction between local adaptation and plastic responses to novel kairomones from a potentially range‐expanding predator. Current projections of biodiversity losses from climate change generally ignore the potential for eco‐evolutionary interactions between native and range‐expanding species and thus could be inaccurate.     

Will variation among genetic individuals influence species responses to global climate change?

Increased anthropogenic CO₂ emissions in the last two centuries have lead to rising sea surface temperature and falling ocean pH, and it is predicted that current global trends will worsen over the next few decades. There is limited understanding of how genetic variation among individuals will influence the responses of populations and species to these changes. A microcosm system was set up to study the effects of predicted temperature and CO₂ levels on the bryozoan Celleporella hyalina. In this marine species, colonies grow by the addition of male, female and feeding modular individuals (zooids) and can be physically subdivided to produce a clone of genetically identical colonies. We studied colony growth rate (the addition of zooids), reproductive investment (the ratio of sexual to feeding zooids) and sex ratio (male to female zooids) in four genetically distinct clonal lines. There was a significant effect of clone on growth rate, reproductive investment and sex ratio, with clones showing contrasting responses to the various temperature and pH combinations. Overall, decreasing pH and increasing temperature caused reduction of growth, and eventual cessation of growth was often observed at the highest temperature, especially during the latter half of the 15‐day trials. Reproductive investment increased with increasing temperature and decreasing pH, varying more widely with temperature at the lowest pH. The increased production of males, a general stress response of the bryozoan, was seen upon exposure to reduced pH, but was not expressed at the highest temperature tested, presumably due to the frequent cessation of growth. Further to the significant effect of pH on the measured whole‐colony parameters, observation by scanning electron microscopy revealed surface pitting of the calcified exoskeleton in colonies that were exposed to increased acidity. Studying ecologically relevant processes of growth and reproduction, we demonstrate the existence of relevant levels of variation among genetic individuals which may enable future adaptation via non‐mutational natural selection to falling pH and rising temperature.     

Rubisco activase: an enzyme with a temperature‐dependent dual function?

Heat treatment of intact spinach leaves was found to induce a unique thylakoid membrane association of an approximately 40 kDa stromal protein. This protein was identified as rubisco activase. Most of the rubisco activase was sequestered to the thylakoid membrane, particularly to the stroma-exposed regions, during the first 10 min of heat treatment at 42 degrees C. At lower temperatures (38-40 degrees C) the association of rubisco activase with the thylakoid membrane occurred more slowly. The temperature-dependent association of rubisco activase with the thylakoid membrane was due to a conformational change in the rubisco activase itself, not to heat-induced alterations in the thylakoid membrane. Association of the 41 kDa isoform of rubisco activase occurred first, followed by the binding of the 45 kDa isoform to the thylakoid membrane. Fractionation of thylakoid membranes revealed a specific association of rubisco activase with thylakoid-bound polysomes. Our results suggest a temperature-dependent dual function for rubisco activase. At optimal temperatures it functions in releasing inhibitory sugar phosphates from the active site of Rubisco. During a sudden and unexpected exposure of plants to heat stress, rubisco activase is likely to manifest a second role as a chaperone in association with thylakoid-bound ribosomes, possibly protecting, as a first aid, the thylakoid associated protein synthesis machinery against heat inactivation.     

Do trout respond to riparian change? A meta‐analysis with implications for restoration and management

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The effect of historical legacy on adaptation: do closely related species respond to the environment in the same way?

The many documented examples of parallel and convergent evolution in similar environments are strong evidence for the role of natural selection in the evolution of trait variation. However, species may respond to selection in different ways; idiosyncrasies of their evolutionary history may affect how different species respond to the same selective pressure. To determine whether evolutionary history affects trait-environment associations in a recently diverged lineage, we investigated within-species trait-environment associations in the white proteas, a closely related monophyletic group. We first used manovas to determine the relative importance of shared response to selection, evolutionary history and unique responses to selection on trait variation. We found that on average, similar associations to the environment across species explained trait variation, but that the species had different mean trait values. We also detected species-specific associations of traits with the environmental gradients. To identify the traits associated uniquely with the environment, we used a structural equation model. Our analysis showed that the species differed in how their traits were associated with each of the environmental variables. Further, in the cases of two root traits (root mass and root length/mass ratio), two species differed in the direction of their associations (e.g. populations in one species had heavier roots in warmer areas, and populations in the other species had lighter roots in warmer areas). Our study shows that even in a closely related group of species, evolutionary history may have an effect on both the size and direction of adaptations to the environment.     

Poised to prosper? A cross‐system comparison of climate change effects on native and non‐native species performance

Climate change and biological invasions are primary threats to global biodiversity that may interact in the future. To date, the hypothesis that climate change will favour non‐native species has been examined exclusively through local comparisons of single or few species. Here, we take a meta‐analytical approach to broadly evaluate whether non‐native species are poised to respond more positively than native species to future climatic conditions. We compiled a database of studies in aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems that reported performance measures of non‐native (157 species) and co‐occurring native species (204 species) under different temperature, CO₂ and precipitation conditions. Our analyses revealed that in terrestrial (primarily plant) systems, native and non‐native species responded similarly to environmental changes. By contrast, in aquatic (primarily animal) systems, increases in temperature and CO₂ largely inhibited native species. There was a general trend towards stronger responses among non‐native species, including enhanced positive responses to more favourable conditions and stronger negative responses to less favourable conditions. As climate change proceeds, aquatic systems may be particularly vulnerable to invasion. Across systems, there could be a higher risk of invasion at sites becoming more climatically hospitable, whereas sites shifting towards harsher conditions may become more resistant to invasions.     

Will climate change favor exotic grasses over native ecosystem engineer species in the Amazon Basin?

Several anthropic disturbances, including deforestation, fires, the building of roads and dams, have intensified in Amazon in last decades. These disturbances contribute to an increase in the occurrence and intensity of extreme events, such as more frequent floods and more severe droughts, due to climate change. Along the Amazonian rivers, aquatic herbaceous plants, mainly of the Poaceae family, are very abundant and produce up to three times more biomass than the adjacent flooded forests, and some are considered ecosystem engineers given their structuring role in these environments. Invasive grasses have spread through the Neotropics and are gradually entering the Amazon via the Arc of Deforestation. These invasive species often attain high coverage, suppress other species, and become dominant in both disturbed and pristine habitats. The aim of this study was to establish the current and future distribution patterns of two native ecosystem engineer species (Echinochloa polystachya and Paspalum fasciculatum) and two invasive species (Urochloa brizantha and Urochloa decumbens) in the Amazon Basin. To predict the future climate, we used three scenarios, namely SSP1–2.6, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5 for the years 2040, 2080 and 2100, to project climatically suitable areas. The current climatically suitable range for the native ecosystem engineer species was estimated at 33–35% of the Amazon Basin, while the invasive ones have a range of 53–84% in potential climatically suitable areas. A decrease in the areas of suitability of the two ecosystem engineer species, E. polystachya and P. fasciculatum, was observed in all scenarios and years, while only the invasive U. brizantha showed an increase in suitable areas in all years. These results raise concerns about the invasion of grasses with high aggressive potential that could result in the exclusion of native ecosystem engineer species and their ecological roles.     

Are all fauna associated with the same structural features of the foundation species Triodia scariosa?

Foundation species are species that play important roles in structuring ecological communities. Therefore, conservation managers often aim to promote foundation species. However, it can be unclear which features of foundation species ought to be the focus of management. We studied hummock‐forming grasses in the genus Triodia. Triodia grasses are considered foundation species because they create complex structures used by many fauna species. Although conservation managers often aim to promote extent cover of Triodia, this is only likely to be optimal for species most strongly associated with extent cover or other structural features strongly correlated with extent cover. We tested (i) whether ‘extent cover’ is the most appropriate way to characterise Triodia as habitat and (ii) whether fauna are associated with any non‐Triodia structures. We studied the Triodia structure associations of one mammal, two birds and five reptiles associated with Triodia scariosa at 524 sites in the Murray‐Mallee, Australia (Ningaui yvonneae, Amytornis striatus, Stipiturus mallee, Ctenophorus fordi, Ctenotus atlas, Ctenotus inornatus, Delma australis and Delma butleri). We used site‐level presence–absence data and vegetation structure data to compare parsimony of models built using four Triodia structural features: extent cover, mean height, mean width and mean volume. We also included non‐Triodia vegetation structures in the model selection: extent cover of leaf litter, shrubs and trees. We divided structural features related to extent cover into categories according to their heights. One species was most closely associated with mean Triodia height; one species with mean Triodia width and six species with extent cover of Triodia, although here, Triodia height categories differed between species. Five species were also associated with shrubs or trees. Extent cover of Triodia was generally an appropriate measure of Triodia structure. Nevertheless, we found variation between species. When characterising the structure of foundation species, we recommend testing faunal associations with multiple structural features.     

A trait‐based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data: how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Estimating population spread rates across multiple species is vital for projecting biodiversity responses to climate change. A major challenge is to parameterise spread models for many species. We introduce an approach that addresses this challenge, coupling a trait‐based analysis with spatial population modelling to project spread rates for 15 000 virtual mammals with life histories that reflect those seen in the real world. Covariances among life‐history traits are estimated from an extensive terrestrial mammal data set using Bayesian inference. We elucidate the relative roles of different life‐history traits in driving modelled spread rates, demonstrating that any one alone will be a poor predictor. We also estimate that around 30% of mammal species have potential spread rates slower than the global mean velocity of climate change. This novel trait‐space‐demographic modelling approach has broad applicability for tackling many key ecological questions for which we have the models but are hindered by data availability.     

Multispecies comparisons of adaptability to climate change: A role for life‐history characteristics?

Phenological advancement allows individuals to adapt to climate change by timing life‐history events to the availability of key resources so that individual fitness is maximized. However, different trophic levels may respond to changes in their environment at different rates, potentially leading to a phenological mismatch. This may be especially apparent in the highly seasonal arctic environment that is experiencing the effects of climate change more so than any other region. During a 14‐year study near Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological advancement in egg laying in relation to snowmelt for eight arctic‐breeding shorebirds and investigated potential linkages to species‐specific life‐history characteristics. We found that snowmelt advanced 0.8 days/year—six times faster than the prior 60‐year period. During this same time, six of the eight species exhibited phenological advancement in laying dates (varying among species from 0.1 to 0.9 days earlier per year), although no species appeared capable of keeping pace with advancing snowmelt. Phenological changes were likely the result of high phenotypic plasticity, as all species investigated in this study showed high interannual variability in lay dates. Commonality among species with similar response rates to timing of snowmelt suggests that nesting later and having an opportunistic settlement strategy may increase the adaptability of some species to changing climate conditions. Other life‐history characteristics, such as migration strategy, previous site experience, and mate fidelity did not influence the ability of individuals to advance laying dates. As a failure to advance egg laying is likely to result in greater phenological mismatch, our study provides an initial assessment of the relative risk of species to long‐term climatic changes.     

Back home? Uncertainties for returning seized animals to the source‐areas under climate change

Regardless of the economic, social and environmental impacts caused by wild animal trafficking worldwide, the suitable destination of seized specimens is one of the main challenges faced by environmental managers and authorities. In Brazil, returning seized animals to the wild has been the most frequent path in population restoration programs, and has been carried out, as a priority, in areas where the animals were captured. However, in addition to the difficulty in identifying the locations of illegal captures, little scientific knowledge is available on the future viability of the source‐areas to global climate change. Thus, the current work aims to evaluate the impacts of climate change on the main source‐municipalities for animal trafficking in Brazil, referred to herein as source‐areas. For this, using ecological niche modeling, the environmental suitability of the source‐areas for illegal animal captures was evaluated in two scenarios at two different time horizons: optimistic (RCP 26) and pessimistic (RCP 85) emission scenarios in both 2050 and 2070 projections. Moreover, the source‐areas were compared with the Brazilian Federal protected areas, used here as the control group. According to the results, Brazilian source‐municipalities are not always the best option for maintaining the most seized species in the future simulations, and, therefore, seem not be the best option for projects that aim for the return of these animals to the wild. In this sense, despite the genetic and ecological issues inherent in translocation projects, our results suggest that population restoration programs for seized species need to be rethought, and furthermore other suitable areas could be considered for truly ensuring the survival and maintenance of overexploited populations in the long term.     

Has past climate change affected cold‐specialized species differentially through space and time?

Quaternary climate change has been strongly linked to distributional shifts and recent species diversification. Montane species, in particular, have experienced enhanced isolation and rapid genetic divergence during glacial fluctuations, and these processes have resulted in a disproportionate number of neo‐endemic species forming in high‐elevation habitats. In temperate montane environments, a general model of alpine population history is well supported, where cold‐specialized species track favourable climate conditions downslope during glacial episodes and upslope during warmer interglacial periods, which leads to a climate‐driven population or species diversification pump. However, it remains unclear how geography mediates distributional changes and whether certain episodes of glacial history have differentially impacted rates of diversification. We address these questions by examining phylogenomic data in a North American clade of flightless, cold‐specialized insects, the ice crawlers (Insecta: Grylloblattodea: Grylloblattidae: Grylloblatta). These low‐vagility organisms have the potential to reveal highly localized refugia and patterns of spatial recolonization, as well as a longer history of in situ diversification. Using continuous phylogeographic analysis of species groups, we show that all species tend to retreat to nearby low‐elevation habitats across western North America during episodes of glaciation, but species at high latitude exhibit larger distributional shifts. Lineage diversification was examined over the course of the Neogene and Quaternary periods, with statistical analysis supporting a direct association between climate variation and diversification rate. Major increases in lineage diversification appear to be correlated with warm and dry periods, rather than with extreme glacial events. Finally, we identify substantial cryptic diversity among ice crawlers, leading to high endemism across their range. This diversity provides new insights into highly localized glacial refugia for cold‐specialized species across western North America.     

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (‘forcing’) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (‘chilling’) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height‐ and diameter‐growth initiation in coast Douglas‐fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field‐based and controlled‐environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter‐growth initiation than height‐growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas‐fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.     

A new species of Lathrolestes (Hymenoptera,Ichneumonidae) from Ecuadorian Amazonia,with?a?key?to the Neotropical species of the genus

Here we describe and illustrate a new parasitoid wasp species, Lathrolestes gauldi sp. n. from the lowland rainforest of eastern Ecuador and provide a key to the Neotropical species of the genus. This is the first record of the subfamily Ctenopelmatinae from Ecuador.     

A new species of Scelidopetalon Delkeskamp (Coleoptera,Erotylidae) from China with a?key?to?world species of the genus

A new species Scelidopetalon biwenxuanisp. n. is described from China, representing the first occurrence of the genus in Hainan province. A key to the world species of this genus is provided.