Spatial structure and dynamics of breeding bird populations at a distribution margin,southern California

Aim Local‐scale processes at species distribution margins can affect larger‐scale distribution dynamics, but are rarely studied. The objective of this research was to elucidate the nature of distribution limits by studying the comparative structure, dynamics and environmental associations of breeding bird populations at their distribution margin. We hypothesized that climate is principally responsible for setting distribution limits, whereas biotic habitat features are more strongly associated with distribution patterns within the range. Location Southern California, USA. Methods During 2005–2007 we studied the distribution patterns of breeding birds in three study areas, each spanning a low‐elevation (200–1800 m) desert scrub‐to‐chaparral gradient. We used logistic regression with hierarchical partitioning to assess the independent effects of environmental variables (e.g. climate versus habitat) on distributions. We tested for shifts in the relative importance of these environmental variables in determining distribution limits versus within‐range patterns, and we also compared higher‐ and lower‐elevation groups of species. Results Distribution patterns were highly variable among species, but were remarkably static over the three study areas and 3‐year study period. Across species, habitat floristic variables performed relatively well at explaining distribution patterns. For higher‐elevation species (chaparral birds), climate was relatively important in setting their lower distribution limits, and there was a shift to a greater importance of biotic habitat (mainly habitat structural variables) for determining within‐range patterns. Relationships were more mixed for lower‐elevation species (desert scrub birds), but with respect to distribution limits, biotic habitat variables tended to be more important relative to climate than we observed for chaparral birds. Main conclusions Along this warm, arid elevational gradient, higher‐elevation chaparral birds are more limited by climate at their lower margin than are lower‐elevation desert birds at their upper margin, suggesting that climate plays a strong role (relative to other values) in excluding non‐desert birds from desert. However, given the strong differences among species, predictive distribution models will need to be individually tailored, and for most species biotic habitat variables were of greater importance than climate in determining limits. This research highlights the usefulness of studying environmental relationships at distribution margins and the importance of considering biotic relationships in forecasting distribution shifts under changing climates.     

Breeding timed to maximize reproductive success for a migratory songbird: the importance of phenological asynchrony

Phenological advances and trophic mismatches are frequently reported ecological consequences of climate warming. Trophic mismatches occur when phenological responses to environmental conditions differ among trophic levels such that the timing of resource demand by consumers becomes decoupled from supply. We used 25 years of demographic measurements of a migratory songbird (the black‐throated blue warbler Setophaga caerulescens) to compare its breeding phenology to the phenology of both its caterpillar prey and the foliage on which caterpillars feed. Caterpillar biomass in this forest did not show a predictable seasonal pulse. Nest initiation by warblers in this northern hardwood forest was therefore not timed to coincide with a peak in food availability for nestlings. Nonetheless, timing of first clutches was strongly associated with spring leaf expansion (slope ± SE = 0.56 ± 0.08 days per day of change in leaf phenology, R² = 0.66). Warblers adjusted the timing of breeding to early springs mainly by shortening the interval between arrival and clutch initiation, but this likely has limits because recent early springs are approaching the relatively inflexible dates when birds arrive on the breeding grounds. Although the timing of first nests did not match 1:1 with leaf‐out phenology, the adjustments in breeding time maximized mean annual reproductive success. Nest predation had the greatest effect on annual reproductive success, but the ability of nesting warblers to appropriately track leaf phenology accounted for effects on annual reproductive success comparable to the influence of variation in caterpillar abundance and conspecific density. Nesting phenology in black‐throated blue warblers was generally well matched to the timing of leaf‐out, even though the match was not 1:1. Without measurements of reproductive success, these unequal phenological shifts might otherwise have been interpreted as having negative ecological consequences.     

Seed origin and warming constrain lodgepole pine recruitment,slowing the pace of population range shifts

Understanding how climate warming will affect the demographic rates of different ecotypes is critical to predicting shifts in species distributions. Here, we present results from a common garden, climate change experiment in which we measured seedling recruitment of lodgepole pine, a widespread North American conifer that is also planted globally. Seeds from a low‐elevation provenance had more than three‐fold greater recruitment to their third year than seeds from a high‐elevation provenance across sites within and above its native elevation range and across climate manipulations. Heating halved recruitment to the third year of both low‐ and high‐elevation seed sources across the elevation gradient, while watering more than doubled recruitment, alleviating some of the negative effects of heating. Demographic models based on recruitment data from the climate manipulations and long‐term observations of adult populations revealed that heating could effectively halt modeled upslope range expansion except when combined with watering. Simulating fire and rapid postfire forest recovery at lower elevations accelerated lodgepole pine expansion into the alpine, but did not alter final abundance rankings among climate scenarios. Regardless of climate scenario, greater recruitment of low‐elevation seeds compensated for longer dispersal distances to treeline, assuming colonization was allowed to proceed over multiple centuries. Our results show that ecotypes from lower elevations within a species’ range could enhance recruitment and facilitate upslope range shifts with climate change.     

Dynamic occupancy models reveal within‐breeding season movement up a habitat quality gradient by a migratory songbird

The timing of settlement decisions likely influences the quality of breeding site choices.This is particularly the case in migratory birds, because the conditions that enhance breeding success are often not apparent upon arrival after migration. A strategy that addresses this problem is to adjust settlement decisions when reliable information becomes available. We used a new indirect method – dynamic site occupancy modeling – to estimate apparent movement of black‐throated blue warblers Dendroica caerulescens among sites within a breeding season. Because individuals should disperse to sites that maximize their fitness, we hypothesized that warblers would move up a habitat quality gradient when opportunities arose. For our study species, that would involve moving into sites with greater shrub density and at higher elevation within northern hardwoods forest, as these two features are positively correlated with reproduction and apparent survival in this species. Although the probability of site occupancy in our study landscape remained consistent throughout the breeding season (range: 0.66–0.69), occupancy models revealed substantial support for apparent movement of individuals within the breeding season. The mean probability of emigration from a point count site was 0.21 (±0.03 SE), and the mean probability of immigration to a site not previously occupied was 0.51 (±0.05 SE). The spatial distribution of this movement was a function of habitat quality. A portion of the black‐throated blue warbler population appears to arrive on the breeding grounds and settle initially in sub‐optimal habitat, moving subsequently into high quality densely shrubbed habitat at higher elevations. This modeling approach provides a new means to test hypotheses about habitat selection and movement by using presence–non‐detection data.     

The geographical range of British birds expands during 15 years of warming

Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.

Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).

Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.

Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.

Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.     

The interacting effects of food,spring temperature,and global climate cycles on population dynamics of a migratory songbird

Although long‐distance migratory songbirds are widely believed to be at risk from warming temperature trends, species capable of attempting more than one brood in a breeding season could benefit from extended breeding seasons in warmer springs. To evaluate local and global factors affecting population dynamics of the black‐throated blue warbler (Setophaga caerulescens), a double‐brooded long‐distance migrant, we used Pradel models to analyze 25 years of mark–recapture data collected in New Hampshire, USA. We assessed the effects of spring temperature (local weather) and the El Niño Southern Oscillation index (a global climate cycle), as well as predator abundance, insect biomass, and local conspecific density on population growth in the subsequent year. Local and global climatic conditions affected warbler populations in different ways. We found that warbler population growth was lower following El Niño years (which have been linked to poor survival in the wintering grounds and low fledging weights in the breeding grounds) than La Niña years. At a local scale, populations increased following years with warm springs and abundant late‐season food, but were unaffected by spring temperature following years when food was scarce. These results indicate that the warming temperature trends might have a positive effect on recruitment and population growth of black‐throated blue warblers if food abundance is sustained in breeding areas. In contrast, potential intensification of future El Niño events could negatively impact vital rates and populations of this species.     

Spatiotemporal patterns of duck nest density and predation risk: a multi‐scale analysis of 18 years and more than 10 000 nests

Many avian species are behaviorally‐plastic in selecting nest sites, and may shift to new locations or habitats following an unsuccessful breeding attempt. If there is predictable spatial variation in predation risk, the process of many individuals using prior experience to adaptively change nest sites may scale up to create shifting patterns of nest density at a population level. We used 18 years of waterfowl nesting data to assess whether there were areas of consistently high or low predation risk, and whether low‐risk areas increased, and high‐risk areas decreased in nest density the following year. We created kernel density maps of successful and unsuccessful nests in consecutive years and found no correlation in predation risk and no evidence for adaptive shifts, although nest density was correlated between years. We also examined between‐year correlations in nest density and nest success at three smaller spatial scales: individual nesting fields (10–28 ha), 16‐ha grid cells and 4‐ha grid cells. Here, results were similar across all scales: we found no evidence for year‐to‐year correlation in nest success but found strong evidence that nest density was correlated between years, and areas of high nest success increased in nest density the following year. Prior research in this system has demonstrated that areas of high nest density have higher nest success, and taken together, our results suggest that ducks may adaptively select nest sites based on the local density of conspecifics, rather than the physical location of last year's nest. In unpredictable environments, current cues, such as the presence of active conspecific nests, may be especially useful in selecting nest sites. The cues birds use to select breeding locations and successfully avoid predators deserve continued attention, especially in systems of conservation concern.     

Breeding territory fidelity in a partial migrant, the American dipper Cinclus mexicanus

American dipper Cinclus mexicanus populations are frequently composed of resident individuals that occupy permanent territories year round and migratory individuals that overwinter with residents but migrate to breeding territories on higher elevation creeks each spring. Between 1999 and 2004 we examined how migratory strategy (resident/migratory) and sex differences influence breeding territory fidelity of American dippers occupying the Chilliwack River watershed, British Columbia, Canada. Counter to expectation we found that the migratory strategy of American dippers did not influence whether birds breeding in one year were found on their former breeding territory in the next. Migratory strategy also did not affect the probability that known surviving dippers occupied the same breeding territory in the following year. Males and females were equally likely to be found on their former territory in the following year (females 43%, males 41%) and known survivors had similar levels of breeding territory fidelity (females 74%, males 68%). However, breeding territory fidelity of males and females varied in response to different factors. Surviving female dippers were more likely to be found on their former breeding territory in the subsequent year following a successful breeding attempt than an unsuccessful breeding attempt. Prior reproductive performance did not influence whether surviving male dippers were found on their former breeding territory. Male dippers were more likely to be found on their former territory and, if they survived, have higher breeding territory fidelity when their mate also returned to that same territory. Mate retention also influenced whether females were found on their former territory in the following year but had no effect on the breeding territory fidelity of known survivors. We argue that sex‐specific dispersal decision rules in American dippers are driven by sex differences in the predictability of breeding performance between years and sex differences in how mate retention influences subsequent reproductive success.     

Patterns and drivers of intraspecific variation in avian life history along elevational gradients: a meta‐analysis

Elevational gradients provide powerful natural systems for testing hypotheses regarding the role of environmental variation in the evolution of life‐history strategies. Case studies have revealed shifts towards slower life histories in organisms living at high elevations yet no synthetic analyses exist of elevational variation in life‐history traits for major vertebrate clades. We examined (i) how life‐history traits change with elevation in paired populations of bird species worldwide, and (ii) which biotic and abiotic factors drive elevational shifts in life history. Using three analytical methods, we found that fecundity declined at higher elevations due to smaller clutches and fewer reproductive attempts per year. By contrast, elevational differences in traits associated with parental investment or survival varied among studies. High‐elevation populations had shorter and later breeding seasons, but longer developmental periods implying that temporal constraints contribute to reduced fecundity. Analyses of clutch size data, the trait for which we had the largest number of population comparisons, indicated no evidence that phylogenetic history constrained species‐level plasticity in trait variation associated with elevational gradients. The magnitude of elevational shifts in life‐history traits were largely unrelated to geographic (altitude, latitude), intrinsic (body mass, migratory status), or habitat covariates. Meta‐population structure, methodological issues associated with estimating survival, or processes shaping range boundaries could potentially explain the nature of elevational shifts in life‐history traits evident in this data set. We identify a new risk factor for montane populations in changing climates: low fecundity will result in lower reproductive potential to recover from perturbations, especially as fewer than half of the species experienced higher survival at higher elevations.     

Comparative nest survival of three sympatric loon species breeding in the Arctic

Identifying factors influencing nest survival among sympatric species is important for understanding and managing sources of variation in population dynamics of individual species. Three species of loons nest sympatrically in northern Alaska and differ in body size, life history characteristics, and population trends. We tested the effects of competition, nest site selection, and water level variations on nest survival of Pacific Gavia pacifica, yellow‐billed G. adamsii, and red‐throated loons G. stellata on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska. Although overall nest survival rates did not differ between species, the factors influencing nest survival varied. Nest site selection influenced nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons, with both species having high nest survival when nesting on islands and peninsulas, likely due to a reduction in access by terrestrial predators. However, on mainland shorelines, Pacific loons had lower nest survival than yellow‐billed loons, and used a higher proportion of vegetation mats for nest sites suggesting that their smaller body size makes them less adept at nest defense. Nest site selection did not influence nest survival of red‐throated loons corresponding to our result of no nest site preferences by this species. Initiation date had a strong influence on nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons with nests laid earlier having higher survival. Pacific and yellow‐billed loon nests were susceptible to flooding due to precipitation, which contrasted with red‐throated loons that nest on smaller lakes with lower water level variations. Competition did not affect nest survival for any of the species likely due to most territorial encounters occurring prior to incubation. The only influence we found on red‐throated loon nest survival was differences among years. Our results indicate that loons chose nest sites based on predation risk and that factors influencing breeding success of closely related species may differ under similar breeding conditions.     

Warming and provenance limit tree recruitment across and beyond the elevation range of subalpine forest

Climate niche models project that subalpine forest ranges will extend upslope with climate warming. These projections assume that the climate suitable for adult trees will be adequate for forest regeneration, ignoring climate requirements for seedling recruitment, a potential demographic bottleneck. Moreover, local genetic adaptation is expected to facilitate range expansion, with tree populations at the upper forest edge providing the seed best adapted to the alpine. Here, we test these expectations using a novel combination of common gardens, seeded with two widely distributed subalpine conifers, and climate manipulations replicated at three elevations. Infrared heaters raised temperatures in heated plots, but raised temperatures more in the forest than at or above treeline because strong winds at high elevation reduced heating efficiency. Watering increased season‐average soil moisture similarly across sites. Contrary to expectations, warming reduced Engelmann spruce recruitment at and above treeline, as well as in the forest. Warming reduced limber pine first‐year recruitment in the forest, but had no net effect on fourth‐year recruitment at any site. Watering during the snow‐free season alleviated some negative effects of warming, indicating that warming exacerbated water limitations. Contrary to expectations of local adaptation, low‐elevation seeds of both species initially recruited more strongly than high‐elevation seeds across the elevation gradient, although the low‐provenance advantage diminished by the fourth year for Engelmann spruce, likely due to small sample sizes. High‐ and low‐elevation provenances responded similarly to warming across sites for Engelmann spruce, but differently for limber pine. In the context of increasing tree mortality, lower recruitment at all elevations with warming, combined with lower quality, high‐provenance seed being most available for colonizing the alpine, portends range contraction for Engelmann spruce. The lower sensitivity of limber pine to warming indicates a potential for this species to become more important in subalpine forest communities in the coming centuries.     

Asynchronous range shifts drive alpine plant–pollinator interactions and reduce plant fitness

Climate change is driving species' range shifts, which are in turn disrupting species interactions due to species‐specific differences in their abilities to migrate in response to climate. We evaluated the consequences of asynchronous range shifts in an alpine plant–pollinator community by transplanting replicated alpine meadow turfs downslope along an elevational gradient thereby introducing them to warmer climates and novel plant and pollinator communities. We asked how these novel plant–pollinator interactions affect plant reproduction. We found that pollinator communities differed substantially across the elevation/temperature gradient, suggesting that these plants will likely interact with different pollinator communities with warming climate. Contrary to the expectation that floral visitation would increase monotonically with warmer temperatures at lower elevations, visitation rate to the transplanted communities peaked under intermediate warming at midelevation sites. In contrast, visitation rate generally increased with temperature for the local, lower elevation plant communities surrounding the experimental alpine turfs. For two of three focal plant species in the transplanted high‐elevation community, reproduction declined at warmer sites. For these species, reproduction appears to be dependent on pollinator identity such that reduced reproduction may be attributable to decreased visitation from key pollinator species, such as bumble bees, at warmer sites. Reproduction in the third focal species appears to be primarily driven by overall pollinator visitation rate, regardless of pollinator identity. Taken together, the results suggest climate warming can indirectly affect plant reproduction via changes in plant–pollinator interactions. More broadly, the experiment provides a case study for predicting the outcome of novel species interactions formed under changing climates.     

Evaluating Habitat Quality for the Dusky Flycatcher

Abstract: We studied the dusky flycatcher (Empidonax oberholseri) at 8 sites in central Idaho, USA, in 2002 and 2003 to examine relationships among vegetation cover, density of breeding conspecifics, and indicators of habitat quality. Number of breeding territories and number of fledglings per hectare were positively associated, suggesting that the dusky flycatcher experienced increased reproductive success where it bred at the highest densities. However, the relationships between nesting success, annual reproductive success, number of fledglings per hectare, and amount of understory cover showed substantial annual variation. Nesting success did not differ significantly across sites or between years. Both reproductive success, expressed as young produced per hectare (range: 0.34–3.09 in 2002 and 0.79–3.82 in 2003) and young produced per nesting attempt (range: 0.71–2.78 in 2002 and 1.11–3.10 in 2003), differed across study sites in each year. Mean clutch size did not differ significantly among sites or years. Mean egg weight showed significant variation across some sites within years and was associated negatively with the 3 measures of reproductive success in 2002, although small sample sizes prevented reliable inference about the appropriateness of this measure as an indicator of habitat quality. Mean clutch size and mean egg weight were not associated with vegetation cover variables. Thus, dusky flycatcher reproductive success showed inconsistencies with individual vegetation measurements at the site scale. Forest managers who use vegetation treatments to increase amounts of understory shrub cover (e.g., by removing portions of the overstory conifer canopy) should increase densities of this species and, in turn, increase number of fledglings produced, but these responses appear to be better measured at the territory or nest scales than at the stand or site scales.     

Seasonal variation in male testosterone levels in a tropical bird with year‐round territoriality

Testosterone is important in mediating investment in competing activities such as territoriality, parental care, and maintenance behavior. Most studies of testosterone function have focused on temperate species and less is known about the role of testosterone in territoriality or variation in mating systems of tropical species. Results of studies of tropical species with year‐round territoriality indicate that territorial aggression during the non‐breeding season is maintained with low levels of testosterone, and increased levels of testosterone in males during the breeding season may increase mating opportunities or aid in competition for mates. We studied seasonal variation in testosterone levels of male Red‐throated Ant‐tanagers (Habia fuscicauda), a socially monogamous species with year‐round territoriality and with high levels of extra‐pair matings (41% of young), to determine if testosterone levels increased during the breeding season. We captured males during the non‐breeding and breeding seasons and collected blood samples for hormone analysis. We found that mean testosterone concentrations were low during the non‐breeding season (0.18 ± 0.05 [SD] ng/ml, range = 0.11–0.31 ng/ml), and significantly higher during the breeding season (2.37 ± 2.47 ng/ml, range = 0.14–6.28 ng/ml). Testosterone levels of breeding males were not related to aggression levels as measured by attack rates toward a stuffed decoy or singing rates during simulated territorial intrusions. These results suggest that the higher testosterone levels of breeding male Red‐throated Ant‐tanagers may be important in an extra‐pair mating context, possibly in display behavior or mate attraction, but additional study is needed to clarify the role of testosterone during the breeding season.     

Demography of Slate‐throated Redstarts (Myioborus miniatus): a non‐migratory Neotropical warbler

Most wood‐warblers (Parulidae) are non‐migratory residents of the Neotropics and subtropics, and the demographic characteristics of these species are poorly known. I examined the annual survival, reproductive output, dispersal, age of first breeding, and other demographic characteristics of a permanently territorial non‐migratory tropical warbler, the Slate‐throated Redstart (Myioborus miniatus), based on a 5‐yr study of a color‐banded population in Monteverde, Costa Rica. Territorial males showed strong site fidelity, but 26% of females engaged in short‐distance between‐year breeding dispersal. Estimated annual survival of territory holders, corrected for undetected female breeding dispersal, was 0.56 for males and 0.43 for females, values lower than expected and comparable to survival estimates for North American migrant warblers. The lower annual survival of females had two demographic consequences; unpaired territorial males were present in 3 of 5 yr, and some 1‐yr‐old males appeared to be floaters. Unpaired females or female floaters, however, were not observed. Mean natal dispersal distance was significantly greater for females (935 m) than males (485 m). Estimated first‐year survival was 0.29, but this is almost certainly an underestimate because of undetected long‐distance, female‐biased natal dispersal. Annual fecundity (fledglings per female) was 1.8, less than that of temperate warblers and attributable to small mean clutch sizes and a low incidence of double brooding. Estimated population growth rate (λ) was <1 for both males and females, suggesting that the study population was a demographic sink, most likely due to lower‐than‐expected adult survival.     

Reproductive patterns in central and marginal populations of a large brown seaweed: drastic changes at the southern range limit

Understanding the factors determining geographic ranges and range shifts of species is a central issue in ecology and evolutionary biology. Research addressing distributional borders from a demographic perspective frequently focused on reproductive traits, finding reproduction reductions or failure at the range margin. However, some of the observed changes in marginal locations could be the result of adaptive adjustments to local, unfavourable conditions, though they have been rarely interpreted from this point of view. In this study we investigated the reproductive patterns of the seaweed Fucus serratus in central and southern marginal locations (SW UK, N Spain) over a 3‐yr period. Our main goals were: 1) to determine the spatial (centre‐margin) and temporal variation in reproductive traits and 2) to test if this variation fits with life‐history predictions for stressful environments. Threshold size for reproduction declined at the range margin, in accordance with life‐history predictions. Nevertheless, we also observed parallel drastic reductions in the percentage of reproductives, reproductive allocation and plant size. The reproductive capacity of marginal locations was thus dramatically reduced in relation to central ones. Furthermore, the decline became more pronounced over the study period. Our results suggests that the viability of marginal populations is at risk. This situation clearly differs from the pattern observed during the last decade. At that time, the species was able to growth and reproduce beyond its distributional boundary at similar rates than inside its range in N Spain. The seaweed was then expanding its distribution and the position of the boundary was set by dispersal limitations. At present, the southern boundary of this species seems to be directly influenced by very unfavourable abiotic conditions, which may be linked to the present scenario of climatic change or to environmental fluctuations acting at shorter‐time scales.     

Can redistribution of breeding colonies on a landscape mitigate changing predation danger?

The reproductive success of colonially breeding species depends in part upon a trade‐off between the benefit of a dilution effect against nestling predation within larger colonies and colony conspicuousness. However, there may be no net survivorship benefit of dilution if smaller colonies are sufficiently inconspicuous. This raises the question about how the size distribution of breeding colonies on a landscape might change as the predation danger for nestlings changes. In southwest British Columbia, Canada, bald eagle Haliaeetus leucocephalus populations have increased exponentially at ～5% per year in recent decades and prey upon nestlings of colonial breeding great blue herons Ardea herodias faninni. Motivated by field data on reproductive success in relation to colony size, modeling is used to ask under which circumstances trading off a dilution benefit against colony conspicuousness can improve population reproductive success. That is, which colonial nesting distribution, dispersed and cryptic versus clumped and conspicuous, best mitigates predation danger on nestlings? When predators are territorial, the modeling predicts a dispersed nesting strategy as attack rate increases, but not as predator numbers increase. When predators are non‐territorial, the modeling predicts a dispersed nesting strategy as predator numbers and/or attack rates increase. When predators are both territorial and non‐territorial, colonial nesting within a predator's territory improves reproductive success when attack rates are low. This suggests nesting in association with territorial predators may offer decreased levels of predation when compared with nesting amongst non‐territorial predators. Thus a change in the colony size distribution of colonially breeding species might be anticipated on a landscape experiencing a change in predation danger.     

Foraging niche shift maintains breeding parameters of a colonial waterbird during range expansion

Relating the effects of foraging niche variation to reproductive dynamics is critical to understand species response to environmental change. We examined foraging niche variations of the slender‐billed gull (Chroicocephalus genei), a nomadic colonial waterbird species during its range expansion along the French Mediterranean coast over a 16‐year period (1998–2013). We investigated whether range expansion was associated with a change in chick diet, breeding success, and chicks body condition. We also examined whether breeding success and chicks body condition were explained by diet and colonial characteristics (number of pairs, laying phenology, habitat, and locality). Diet was characterized using dual‐stable isotopic proxies (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) of feather keratin from 331 individuals subsampled from a total of 4,154 chicks ringed and measured at 18 different colonies. δ¹³C decreased and δ¹⁵N increased significantly during range expansion suggesting that chicks were fed from preys of increasing trophic level found in the less salty habitat colonized by the end of the study period. Niche shift occurred without significant change of niche width which did not vary among periods, habitats, or localities either. Breeding success and chick body condition showed no consistent trends over years. Breeding success tended to increase with decreasing δ¹³C at the colony level while there was no relationship between stable isotope signatures and chick body condition. Overall, our results suggest that even if range expansion is associated with foraging niche shift toward the colonization of less salty and more brackish habitats, the shift had marginal effect on the breeding parameters of the Slender‐billed gull. Niche width appears as an asset of this species, which likely explains its ability to rapidly colonize new locations.     

Evidence for longitudinal migration by a “sedentary” Brazilian flycatcher,the Ash‐throated Casiornis

The digitalization of museum collections and concurrent increase in citizen‐science initiatives is ushering in an era of unprecedented availability of primary biodiversity data. These changes permit a reappraisal of phenological patterns of tropical species. I examined spatio‐temporal variation in the distribution patterns of an ostensibly sedentary endemic Brazilian flycatcher, the Ash‐throated Casiornis (Casiornis fuscus), using both specimen data from museums and sighting records and rich media data from citizen‐science initiatives. I found compelling evidence for partial intratropical longitudinal migration to Amazonia and the Cerrado biomes from the species’ core range in the semi‐desert Caatinga biome and adjacent ecotones. These records from outside of the Caatinga were distributed during the height of the dry season from April to October, although the Caatinga is not entirely vacated at this time. This pattern of partial migration leads to a doubling of the distributional range of Ash‐throated Casiornises and strongly suggests that the species is a breeding near‐endemic of the Caatinga biome. This pattern was potentially previously not apparent because of significant biases in specimen collection between biomes, giving a false sense of abundance in the Brazilian Amazon.     

Hurricanes overcome migration lag and shape intraspecific genetic variation beyond a poleward mangrove range limit

Expansion of many tree species lags behind climate change projections. Extreme storms can rapidly overcome this lag, especially for coastal species, but how will storm‐driven expansion shape intraspecific genetic variation? Do storms provide recruits only from the nearest sources, or from more distant sources? Answers to these questions have ecological and evolutionary implications, but empirical evidence is absent from the literature. In 2017, Hurricane Irma provided an opportunity to address this knowledge gap at the northern range limit of the neotropical black mangrove (Avicennia germinans) on the Atlantic coast of Florida, USA. We observed massive post‐hurricane increases in beach‐stranded A. germinans propagules at, and past, this species’ present day range margin when compared to a previously surveyed nonhurricane year. Yet, propagule dispersal does not guarantee subsequent establishment and reproductive success (i.e., effective dispersal). We also evaluated prior effective dispersal along this coastline with isolated A. germinans trees identified beyond the most northern established population. We used 12 nuclear microsatellite loci to genotype 896 hurricane‐driven drift propagules from nine sites and 10 isolated trees from four sites, determined their sources of origin, and estimated dispersal distances. Almost all drift propagules and all isolated trees came from the nearest sources. This research suggests that hurricanes are a prerequisite for poleward range expansion of a coastal tree species and that storms can shape the expanding gene pool by providing almost exclusively range‐margin genotypes. These insights and empirical estimates of hurricane‐driven dispersal distances should improve our ability to forecast distributional shifts of coastal species.