Linkages between large‐scale climate patterns and the dynamics of Arctic caribou populations

Recent research has linked climate warming to global declines in caribou and reindeer (both Rangifer tarandus) populations. We hypothesize large‐scale climate patterns are a contributing factor explaining why these declines are not universal. To test our hypothesis for such relationships among Alaska caribou herds, we calculated the population growth rate and percent change of four arctic herds using existing population estimates, and explored associations with indices of the Arctic Oscillation (AO) and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The AO, which more strongly affects eastern Alaska, was negatively associated with the population trends of the Porcupine Caribou Herd and Central Arctic Herd, the easternmost of the herds. We hypothesize that either increased snowfall or suboptimal growing conditions for summer forage plants could explain this negative relationship. Intensity of the PDO, which has greatest effects in western Alaska, was negatively associated with the growth rate of the Teshekpuk Caribou Herd in northwestern Alaska, but the Western Arctic Herd in western Alaska displayed the opposite trend. We suggest that the contrasting patterns of association relate to the spatial variability of the effects of the PDO on western and northwestern Alaska. Although predation and winter range quality have often been considered the primary causes of population variation, our results show that large‐scale climate patterns may play an important role in caribou population dynamics in arctic Alaska. Our findings reveal that climate warming has not acted uniformly to reduce caribou populations globally. Further research should focus on the relative importance of mechanisms by which climate indices influence caribou population dynamics.     

Juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles linked to decadal changes in ocean circulation

Given the threats of climate change, understanding the relationship of climate with long‐term population dynamics is critical for wildlife conservation. Previous studies have linked decadal climate oscillations to indices of juvenile recruitment in loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta), but without a clear understanding of mechanisms. Here, we explore the underlying processes that may explain these relationships. Using the eddy‐resolving Ocean General Circulation Model for the Earth Simulator, we generate hatch‐year trajectories for loggerhead turtles emanating from Japan over six decades (1950–2010). We find that the proximity of the high‐velocity Kuroshio Current to the primary nesting areas in southern Japan is remarkably stable and that hatchling dispersal to oceanic habitats itself does not vary on decadal timescales. However, we observe a shift in latitudes of trajectories, consistent with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). In a negative PDO phase, the Kuroshio Extension Current (KEC) is strong and acts as a physical barrier to the northward transport of neonates. As a result, hatch‐year trajectories remain mostly below 35°N in the warm, unproductive region south of the Transition Zone Chlorophyll Front (TZCF). During a positive PDO phase, however, the KEC weakens facilitating the neonates to swim north of the TZCF into cooler and more productive waters. As a result, annual cohorts from negative PDO years may face a lack of resources, whereas cohorts from positive PDO years may find sufficient resources during their pivotal first year. These model outputs indicate that the ocean circulation dynamics, combined with navigational swimming behavior, may be a key factor in the observed decadal variability of sea turtle populations.     

Relationships of subalpine forest fires in the Colorado Front Range with interannual and multidecadal‐scale climatic variation

Aim An understanding of past relationships between fire occurrence and climate variability will help to elucidate the implications of climate‐change scenarios for future patterns of wildfire. In the present study we investigate the relationships between subalpine‐zone fire occurrence and climate variability and broad‐scale climate patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans at both interannual and multidecadal time‐scales. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of Engelmann spruce (Picea engelmannii) and subalpine fir (Abies lasiocarpa), and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in the southern sector of the Rocky Mountain National Park, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range. Methods We compared years of widespread fire from AD 1650 to 1978 for the subalpine zone of southern Rocky Mountain National Park, with climate variables such as measures of drought, and indices such as the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). Results Years of extensive subalpine‐zone fires are significantly related to climate variability, phases of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO, as well as to phase combinations of ENSO, the PDO, and the AMO at both interannual and centennial time‐scales. Main conclusions Years of extensive fires are related to extreme drought conditions and are significantly related to the La Niña phase of ENSO, the negative (cool) phase of the PDO, and the positive (warm) phase of the AMO. The co‐occurrence of the phase combination of La Niña‐negative PDO‐positive AMO is more important to fire occurrence than the individual influences of the climate patterns. Low‐frequency trends in the occurrence of this combination of climate‐pattern phases, resulting from trends in the AMO, are the primary climate pattern associated with periods of high fire occurrence (1700–89 and 1851–1919) and a fire‐free period (1790–1850). The apparent controlling influence of the AMO on drought and years of large fires in the subalpine forests of the Colorado Front Range probably applies to an extensive area of western North America.     

Projecting the impacts of climate change on skipjack tuna abundance and spatial distribution

Climate‐induced changes in the physical, chemical, and biological environment are expected to increasingly stress marine ecosystems, with important consequences for fisheries exploitation. Here, we use the APECOSM‐E numerical model (Apex Predator ECOSystem Model ‐ Estimation) to evaluate the future impacts of climate change on the physiology, spatial distribution, and abundance of skipjack tuna, the worldwide most fished species of tropical tuna. The main novelties of our approach lie in the mechanistic link between environmental factors, metabolic rates, and behavioral responses and in the fully three dimensional representation of habitat and population abundance. Physical and biogeochemical fields used to force the model are provided by the last generation of the IPSL‐CM5 Earth System Model run from 1990 to 2100 under a ‘business‐as‐usual’ scenario (RCP8.5). Our simulations show significant changes in the spatial distribution of skipjack tuna suitable habitat, as well as in their population abundance. The model projects deterioration of skipjack habitat in most tropical waters and an improvement of habitat at higher latitudes. The primary driver of habitat changes is ocean warming, followed by food density changes. Our projections show an increase of global skipjack biomass between 2010 and 2050 followed by a marked decrease between 2050 and 2095. Spawning rates are consistent with population trends, showing that spawning depends primarily on the adult biomass. On the other hand, growth rates display very smooth temporal changes, suggesting that the ability of skipjack to keep high metabolic rates in the changing environment is generally effective. Uncertainties related to our model spatial resolution, to the lack or simplification of key processes and to the climate forcings are discussed.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Climate variation and regional gradients in population dynamics of two hole-nesting passerines

Latitudinal gradients in population dynamics can arise through regional variation in the deterministic components of the population dynamics and the stochastic factors. Here, we demonstrate an increase with latitude in the contribution of a large-scale climate pattern, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), to the fluctuations in size of populations of two European hole-nesting passerine species. However, this influence of climate induced different latitudinal gradients in the population dynamics of the two species. In the great tit the proportion of the variability in the population fluctuations explained by the NAO increased with latitude, showing a larger impact of climate on the population fluctuations of this species at higher latitudes. In contrast, no latitudinal gradient was found in the relative contribution of climate to the variability of the pied flycatcher populations because the total environmental stochasticity increased with latitude. This shows that the population ecological consequences of an expected climate change will depend on how climate affects the environmental stochasticity in the population process. In both species, the effects will be larger in those parts of Europe where large changes in climate are expected.     

Evaluation of multi-scale climate effects on annual recruitment levels of the Japanese eel, Anguilla japonica, to Taiwan

Long-term (1967–2008) glass eel catches were used to investigate climatic effects on the annual recruitment of Japanese eel to Taiwan. Specifically, three prevailing hypotheses that potentially explain the annual recruitment were evaluated. Hypothesis 1: high precipitation shifts the salinity front northward, resulting in favorable spawning locations. Hypothesis 2: a southward shift of the position of the North Equatorial Current (NEC) bifurcation provides a favorable larval transport route. Hypothesis 3: ocean conditions (eddy activities and productivity) along the larval migration route influence larval survival. Results of time series regression and wavelet analyses suggest that Hypothesis 1 is not supported, as the glass eel catches exhibited a negative relationship with precipitation. Hypothesis 2 is plausible. However, the catches are correlated with the NEC bifurcation with a one-year lag. Considering the time needed for larval transport (only four to six months), the one-year lag correlation does not support the direct transport hypothesis. Hypothesis 3 is supported indirectly by the results. Significant correlations were found between catches and climate indices that affect ocean productivity and eddy activities, such as the Quasi Biennial Oscillation (QBO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO). Wavelet analysis reveals three periodicities of eel catches: 2.7, 5.4, and 10.3 years. The interannual coherence with QBO and the Niño 3.4 region suggests that the shorter-term climate variability is modulated zonally by equatorial dynamics. The low-frequency coherence with WPO, PDO, and NPGO demonstrates the decadal modulation of meridional teleconnection via ocean–atmosphere interactions. Furthermore, WPO and QBO are linked to solar activities. These results imply that the Japanese eel recruitment may be influenced by multi-timescale climate variability. Our findings call for investigation of extra-tropical ocean dynamics that affect survival of eels during transport, in addition to the existing efforts to study the equatorial system.     

Reassessing regime shifts in the North Pacific: incremental climate change and commercial fishing are necessary for explaining decadal‐scale biological variability

In areas of the North Pacific that are largely free of overfishing, climate regime shifts – abrupt changes in modes of low‐frequency climate variability – are seen as the dominant drivers of decadal‐scale ecological variability. We assessed the ability of leading modes of climate variability [Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Arctic Oscillation (AO), Pacific‐North American Pattern (PNA), North Pacific Index (NPI), El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO)] to explain decadal‐scale (1965–2008) patterns of climatic and biological variability across two North Pacific ecosystems (Gulf of Alaska and Bering Sea). Our response variables were the first principle component (PC1) of four regional climate parameters [sea surface temperature (SST), sea level pressure (SLP), freshwater input, ice cover], and PCs 1–2 of 36 biological time series [production or abundance for populations of salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), groundfish, herring (Clupea pallasii), shrimp, and jellyfish]. We found that the climate modes alone could not explain ecological variability in the study region. Both linear models (for climate PC1) and generalized additive models (for biology PC1–2) invoking only the climate modes produced residuals with significant temporal trends, indicating that the models failed to capture coherent patterns of ecological variability. However, when the residual climate trend and a time series of commercial fishery catches were used as additional candidate variables, resulting models of biology PC1–2 satisfied assumptions of independent residuals and out‐performed models constructed from the climate modes alone in terms of predictive power. As measured by effect size and Akaike weights, the residual climate trend was the most important variable for explaining biology PC1 variability, and commercial catch the most important variable for biology PC2. Patterns of climate sensitivity and exploitation history for taxa strongly associated with biology PC1–2 suggest plausible mechanistic explanations for these modeling results. Our findings suggest that, even in the absence of overfishing and in areas strongly influenced by internal climate variability, climate regime shift effects can only be understood in the context of other ecosystem perturbations.     

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10‐year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10‐year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2‐year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long‐term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10‐year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940–1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10‐year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare–lynx system.     

Relative influence of fisheries and climate on the demography of four albatross species

Worldwide ecosystems are modified by human activities and climate change. To be able to predict future changes, it is necessary to understand their respective role on population dynamics. Among the most threatened species are top predators because of their position in the food web. Albatross populations are potentially affected by both human activities, especially longline fisheries, and climatic fluctuations. Based on long‐term data (1985–2006), we conducted through a comparative approach a demographic analysis (adult survival and breeding success) on four albatross species breeding on the Indian Ocean sub‐Antarctic Islands to assess the relative impact of climate and fisheries during and outside the breeding season. The study revealed that adult survival of almost all species was not affected by climate, and therefore probably canalized against climatic variations, but was negatively affected by tuna longlining effort in three species. Breeding success was affected by climate, with contrasted effects between species, with Southern Oscillation Index having an impact on all species but one. Differences in demographic responses depended on the foraging zone and season. In order to predict population trajectories of seabirds such as albatrosses, our results show the importance of assessing the relative influence of fishing and climate impacts on demography.     

Fluctuations of Vanessa cardui butterfly abundance with El Niño and Pacific Decadal Oscillation climatic variables

Annual 4th of July Butterfly Count data spanning more than 20 years are examined to explore Vanessa cardui (Painted Lady) population fluctuations with ENSO (El Niño) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) indices. California, Colorado and Nebraska censuses exhibit a strong positive correlation with the strong El Niño events of 1982–1983 and 1997–1998 and the weaker event of 1991–1992. Regression analysis shows the population fluctuations are strongly coupled to climate variations on both short (El Niño) and longer (Pacific Decadal Oscillation) time scales. Recognizing the sensitivity to these time scales is important for predicting longer‐term global climate change effects.     

The Large-Scale Deployment of Fish Aggregation Devices Alters Environmentally-Based Migratory Behavior of Skipjack Tuna in the Western Pacific Ocean

Fish aggregation devices (FADs) have been used extensively in the tuna purse seine fishery since the 1980s. This long-term modification of natural habitat has generated discussions as to whether FADs impact movement patterns of tuna species. We examined this question using data collected from the skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) fishery. We used the longitudinal gravitational center of catch (G) to examine temporal variability in skipjack movement in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean, and related this to El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events. We found that in most cases G for free-swimming school sets changed with the onset of ENSO events, while G for floating-object-associated school sets remained relatively constant. This suggests that skipjack exhibit distinguishable behavioral strategies in response to ENSO events: they either react by moving long distances or they associate with floating objects. There has been no previous attempt to evaluate the interaction between FADs and the environmentally-determined movement of skipjack; this study shows evidence of an interaction, which should be considered when managing skipjack populations.     

Complex structural effects of two hemispheric climatic oscillators on the regional spatio-temporal expansion of a threatened bird

Links between climatic conditions in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extratropical ecological processes remain unexplored. The analysis of a 20‐year time series of spatial and numeric dynamics of a threatened Mediterranean bird suggests, however, that such couplings can be remarkably complex. By providing a new ecological time‐series modelling approach, we were able to dissect the joint effects of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), regional weather, population density and stochastic variability on the expansion dynamics of the White‐headed duck (Oxyura leococephala) in Spain. Our results suggest that the spatial and numeric dynamics of ducks between peak brood emergence and wintering were simultaneously affected by different climatic phenomena during different phases of their global cycles, involving time lags in the numeric dynamics. Strikingly, our results point to both the NAO and the ENSO as potentially major factors simultaneously forcing ecological processes in the Northern Hemisphere, and suggest a new pathway for non‐additive effects of climate in ecology.     

Influence of long-distance climate teleconnection on seasonality of water temperature in the world's largest lake--Lake Baikal, Siberia

Large-scale climate change is superimposed on interacting patterns of climate variability that fluctuate on numerous temporal and spatial scales--elements of which, such as seasonal timing, may have important impacts on local and regional ecosystem forcing. Lake Baikal in Siberia is not only the world's largest and most biologically diverse lake, but it has exceptionally strong seasonal structure in ecosystem dynamics that may be dramatically affected by fluctuations in seasonal timing. We applied time-frequency analysis to a near-continuous, 58-year record of water temperature from Lake Baikal to examine how seasonality in the lake has fluctuated over the past half century and to infer underlying mechanisms. On decadal scales, the timing of seasonal onset strongly corresponds with deviation in the zonal wind intensity as described by length of day (LOD); on shorter scales, these temperature patterns shift in concert with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Importantly, the connection between ENSO and Lake Baikal is gated by the cool and warm periods of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). Large-scale climatic phenomena affecting Siberia are apparent in Lake Baikal surface water temperature data, dynamics resulting from jet stream and storm track variability in central Asia and across the Northern Hemisphere.     

Coral Luminescence Identifies the Pacific Decadal Oscillation as a Primary Driver of River Runoff Variability Impacting the Southern Great Barrier Reef

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) is a large-scale climatic phenomenon modulating ocean-atmosphere variability on decadal time scales. While precipitation and river flow variability in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments are sensitive to PDO phases, the extent to which the PDO influences coral reefs is poorly understood. Here, six Porites coral cores were used to produce a composite record of coral luminescence variability (runoff proxy) and identify drivers of terrestrial influence on the Keppel reefs, southern GBR. We found that coral skeletal luminescence effectively captured seasonal, inter-annual and decadal variability of river discharge and rainfall from the Fitzroy River catchment. Most importantly, although the influence of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events was evident in the luminescence records, the variability in the coral luminescence composite record was significantly explained by the PDO. Negative luminescence anomalies (reduced runoff) were associated with El Niño years during positive PDO phases while positive luminescence anomalies (increased runoff) coincided with strong/moderate La Niña years during negative PDO phases. This study provides clear evidence that not only ENSO but also the PDO have significantly affected runoff regimes at the Keppel reefs for at least a century, and suggests that upcoming hydrological disturbances and ecological responses in the southern GBR region will be mediated by the future evolution of these sources of climate variability.     

Regional differences in responses of chinook salmon populations to large-scale climatic patterns

Aim To quantitatively explore the extent to which many different populations of the same species (chinook salmon, Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) respond cohesively to a common large‐scale climatic trend. Location The Columbia River basin of the northwestern US. Methods I used regression analyses to describe the downward trend in population growth (number of recruits per spawning adult) for thirteen populations of chinook salmon distributed among three geographical regions: Snake River, Upper Columbia River and Middle Columbia River. I then used residuals from these regressions to characterize per capita productivity for each brood year. Positive residuals indicated productivity higher than that predicted by the time series, while negative residuals revealed years in which productivity was lower than predicted. I next used analysis of covariance (ancova ) to test the null hypothesis that associations between ocean/climate conditions and deviations from predicted population growth did not vary among geographical regions. All ancova s used residuals generated from the regressions as the response variable, geographical region as the main effect, and climatic condition [characterized by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation index (PDO)] as the covariate. A major climate shift occurred in 1977, and because the association of the PDO with salmon productivity varied between the pre‐ and post‐1977 climate regimes, I analysed data from the two regimes separately. Results There were marked impacts of climate on salmon production that varied among geographical regions and between decade‐scale climate regimes. During the pre‐1977 climate regime, productivity of salmon populations from the Snake River tended to exceed expectations (i.e. residuals were positive) when values of the PDO were negative. In contrast, this pattern was not evident in populations from the upper or middle Columbia Rivers. During the post‐1977 regime when ocean productivity was generally lower, the association of the PDO with salmon productivity changed – productivity tended to fall short of expectations (i.e. residuals were negative) when values of the PDO were negative. Main conclusions Understanding the linkages between salmon populations and climate is critical as managers attempt to preserve threatened salmon populations in the face of both natural or human‐induced climate variation and the litany of human activities affecting salmon. An important step in this understanding is the recognition that the response to ocean/climate change by salmon populations of the same species and river basin is not necessarily homogeneous.     

Climate influences on female survival in a declining population of southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina)

The Southern Ocean has been disproportionately affected by climate change and is therefore an ideal place to study the influence of changing environmental conditions on ecosystems. Changes in the demography of predator populations are indicators of broader shifts in food web structure, but long‐term data are required to study these effects. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) from Macquarie Island have consistently decreased in population size while all other major populations across the Southern Ocean have recently stabilized or are increasing. Two long‐term mark‐recapture studies (1956–1967 and 1993–2009) have monitored this population, which provides an opportunity to investigate demographic performance over a range of climatic conditions. Using a 9‐state matrix population model, we estimated climate influences on female survival by incorporating two major climatic indices into our model: The Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Our best model included a 1 year lagged effect of SAM and an unlagged SOI as covariates. A positive relationship with SAM1 (lagged) related the previous year''s SAM with juvenile survival, potentially due to changes in local prey availability surrounding Macquarie Island. The unlagged SOI had a negative effect on both juvenile and adult seals, indicating that sea ice dynamics and access to foraging grounds on the East Antarctic continental shelf could explain the different contributions of ENSO events on the survival of females in this population.     

Interacting effect of wolves and climate on recruitment in a northern mountain caribou population

There is limited research on the influence of Pacific‐based climate in large herbivore populations. Additionally, much of our understanding on the effect of large‐scale climate on ungulate population dynamics has occurred on forage‐limited rather than predator‐limited populations. We compared the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index, and local weather on recruitment in a predator‐limited mountain‐dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou population in the Yukon Territory, Canada, across a range of wolf Canis lupus densities. A large‐scale wolf removal program allowed us to examine the role of Pacific climate and weather when wolves were reduced to ～15% of their pre‐removal levels. Recruitment was best explained by the interaction of wolf density and April‐PDO, with wolf density explaining the most deviance. Predicted recruitment during good springs was 0.45 (SE = 0.04) during wolf removal and 0.29 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. During poor springs (low PDO, increased snow depth) predicted recruitment was 0.55 (SE = 0.10) during wolf removal and 0.12 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. With non‐altered wolf densities, there was a positive relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment due to reduced snow depth at calving, allowing parturient females to disperse up in elevation away from predators. When wolf densities were substantially reduced there was a slight negative relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment, possibly due to a more rapid vegetation green‐up reducing the temporal availability of highly nutritious forage necessary for lactation and subsequent calf growth. Attempts to find general relationships between climate and ungulate population dynamics have proven difficult due to different ecological mechanisms by which climate affects individuals across populations. Temporally varying factors, such as predator density, may also play an important role in uncovering the mechanistic relationship between climate and population dynamics.     

Combined effect of ENSO and SAM on the population dynamics of the invasive yellowjacket wasp in central Chile

The population dynamics of the yellowjacket wasp (Vespula germanica Fabricus) in central Chile were analyzed for the first time. Using a simple Ricker logistic model and adding the effects of local weather variables (temperature and precipitation) and large-scale climate phenomena as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), we modeled the interannual fluctuations in nest density. The best model according to the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) included 1-year-lag negative feedback combined with the positive additive effects of ENSO and SAM. According to this model, yellowjacket nest density was favored by warm and dry winters, which probably influenced the survival of overwintering queens. Large-scale climatic variables [Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and SAM] described the effect of exogenous factors in wasp fluctuations better than local weather variables did. Our results emphasize the usefulness of climate indices and simple theoretical-based models in insect ecological research.     

Climate drivers and animal host use determine kelp performance over decadal scales in the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri (Laminariales,Phaeophyceae)

Primary producers respond to climate directly and indirectly due to effects on their consumers. In the temperate coastal ocean, the highly productive brown algae known as kelp have both strong climate and grazer linkages. We analyzed the demographic response of the kelp Pleurophycus gardneri over a 25‐year span to determine the interaction between ocean climate indicators and invertebrate infestation rates. Pleurophycus hosts amphipod species that burrow in the stipe, increasing mortality. Although kelp performance is generally greater with more negative values of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and colder seawater temperatures, Pleurophycus showed the opposite pattern. When we compared the 1990s, a period of positive values for the PDO and warmer sea surface temperatures, with the following decade, a period characterized by negative PDO values, we documented a contradictory outcome for proxies of kelp fitness. In the 1990s, Pleurophycus unexpectedly showed greater longevity, faster growth, greater reproductive effort, and a trend toward decreased amphipod infestation compared with the 2006–2012 period. In contrast, the period from 2006 to 2012 showed opposite kelp performance patterns and with a trend toward greater amphipod infestation. Pleurophycus performance metrics suggest that some coastal primary producers will respond differently to climate drivers, particularly if they interact strongly with grazers.