Complexity is costly: a meta‐analysis of parametric and non‐parametric methods for short‐term population forecasting

Short‐term forecasts based on time series of counts or survey data are widely used in population biology to provide advice concerning the management, harvest and conservation of natural populations. A common approach to produce these forecasts uses time‐series models, of different types, fit to time series of counts. Similar time‐series models are used in many other disciplines, however relative to the data available in these other disciplines, population data are often unusually short and noisy and models that perform well for data from other disciplines may not be appropriate for population data. In order to study the performance of time‐series forecasting models for natural animal population data, we assembled 2379 time series of vertebrate population indices from actual surveys. Our data were comprised of three vastly different types: highly variable (marine fish productivity), strongly cyclic (adult salmon counts), and small variance but long‐memory (bird and mammal counts). We tested the predictive performance of 49 different forecasting models grouped into three broad classes: autoregressive time‐series models, non‐linear regression‐type models and non‐parametric time‐series models. Low‐dimensional parametric autoregressive models gave the most accurate forecasts across a wide range of taxa; the most accurate model was one that simply treated the most recent observation as the forecast. More complex parametric and non‐parametric models performed worse, except when applied to highly cyclic species. Across taxa, certain life history characteristics were correlated with lower forecast error; specifically, we found that better forecasts were correlated with attributes of slow growing species: large maximum age and size for fishes and high trophic level for birds. Synthesis Evaluating the data support for multiple plausible models has been an integral focus of many ecological analyses. However, the most commonly used tools to quantify support have weighted models’ hindcasting and forecasting abilities. For many applications, predicting the past may be of little interest. Concentrating only on the future predictive performance of time series models, we performed a forecasting competition among many different kinds of statistical models, applying each to many different kinds of vertebrate time series of population abundance. Low‐dimensional (simple) models performed well overall, but more complex models did slightly better when applied to time series of cyclic species (e.g. salmon).     

Microbial stress priming: a meta‐analysis

Microbes have to cope with complex and dynamic environments, making it likely that anticipatory responses provide fitness benefits. Mild, previous stressors can prepare microbes (stress priming) to further and potentially damaging stressors (triggering). We here quantitatively summarize the findings from over 250 trials of 34 studies including bacteria and fungi, demonstrating that priming to stress has a beneficial impact on microbial survival. In fact, survival of primed microbes was about 10‐fold higher compared with that in non‐primed microbes. Categorical moderators related to microbial taxonomy and the kind of stress applied as priming or as triggering revealed significant differences of priming effect size among 14 different microbial species, 6 stress categories and stressor combination. We found that priming by osmotic, physiological and temperature stress had the highest positive effect sizes on microbial response. Cross‐protection was evident for physiological, temperature and pH stresses. Microbes are better prepared against triggering by oxidative, temperature and osmotic stress. Our finding of an overall positive mean effect of priming regardless of the microbial system and particular stressor provides unprecedentedly strong evidence of the broad ecological significance of microbial stress priming. These results further suggest that stress priming may be an important factor in shaping microbial communities.     

The impact of pharmacological and non‐pharmacological interventions to improve physical health outcomes in people with schizophrenia: a meta‐review of meta‐analyses of randomized controlled trials

We summarized and compared meta‐analyses of pharmacological and non‐pharmacological interventions targeting physical health outcomes among people with schizophrenia spectrum disorders. Major databases were searched until June 1, 2018. Of 3,709 search engine hits, 27 meta‐analyses were included, representing 128 meta‐analyzed trials and 47,231 study participants. While meta‐analyses were generally of adequate or high quality, meta‐analyzed studies were less so. The most effective weight reduction interventions were individual lifestyle counseling (standardized mean difference, SMD=–0.98) and exercise interventions (SMD=–0.96), followed by psychoeducation (SMD=–0.77), aripiprazole augmentation (SMD=–0.73), topiramate (SMD=–0.72), d‐fenfluramine (SMD=–0.54) and metformin (SMD=–0.53). Regarding waist circumference reduction, aripiprazole augmentation (SMD=–1.10) and topiramate (SMD=–0.69) demonstrated the best evidence, followed by dietary interventions (SMD=–0.39). Dietary interventions were the only to significantly improve (diastolic) blood pressure (SMD=–0.39). Switching from olanzapine to quetiapine or aripiprazole (SMD=–0.71) and metformin (SMD=–0.65) demonstrated best efficacy for reducing glucose levels, followed by glucagon‐like peptide‐1 receptor agonists (SMD=–0.39), dietary interventions (SMD=–0.37) and aripiprazole augmentation (SMD=–0.34), whereas insulin resistance improved the most with metformin (SMD=–0.75) and rosiglitazone (SMD=–0.44). Topiramate had the greatest efficacy for triglycerides (SMD=–0.68) and low‐density lipoprotein (LDL)‐cholesterol (SMD=–0.80), whereas metformin had the greatest beneficial effects on total cholesterol (SMD=–0.51) and high‐density lipoprotein (HDL)‐cholesterol (SMD=0.45). Lifestyle interventions yielded small effects for triglycerides, total cholesterol and LDL‐cholesterol (SMD=–0.35 to –0.37). Only exercise interventions increased exercise capacity (SMD=1.81). Despite frequent physical comorbidities and premature mortality mainly due to these increased physical health risks, the current evidence for pharmacological and non‐pharmacological interventions in people with schizophrenia to prevent and treat these conditions is still limited and more larger trials are urgently needed.     

Psychotherapies for depression in low‐ and middle‐income countries: a meta‐analysis

Most psychotherapies for depression have been developed in high‐income Western countries of North America, Europe and Australia. A growing number of randomized trials have examined the effects of these treatments in non‐Western countries. We conducted a meta‐analysis of these studies to examine whether these psychotherapies are effective and to compare their effects between studies from Western and non‐Western countries. We conducted systematic searches in bibliographical databases and included 253 randomized controlled trials, of which 32 were conducted in non‐Western countries. The effects of psychotherapies in non‐Western countries were large (g=1.10; 95% CI: 0.91‐1.30), with high heterogeneity (I²=90; 95% CI: 87‐92). After adjustment for publication bias, the effect size dropped to g=0.73 (95% CI: 0.51‐0.96). Subgroup analyses did not indicate that adaptation to the local situation was associated with the effect size. Comparisons with the studies in Western countries showed that the effects of the therapies were significantly larger in non‐Western countries, also after adjusting for characteristics of the participants, the treatments and the studies. These larger effect sizes in non‐Western countries may reflect true differences indicating that therapies are indeed more effective; or may be explained by the care‐as‐usual control conditions in non‐Western countries, often indicating that no care was available; or may be the result of the relative low quality of many trials in the field. This study suggests that psychotherapies that were developed in Western countries may or may not be more effective in non‐Western countries, but they are probably no less effective and can therefore also be used in these latter countries.     

Linking soil food web structure to above‐ and belowground ecosystem processes: a meta‐analysis

Soil fauna can be an important regulator of community parameters and ecosystem processes, but there have been few quantitative syntheses of the role of soil fauna in terrestrial soil communities and ecosystems. Here, we conducted a meta‐analysis to investigate the impacts of invertebrate soil micro‐ and mesofauna (grazers and predators) on plant productivity and microbial biomass. Overall our results indicate that an increase in the biomass of soil fauna increased aboveground plant productivity across ecosystems by 35% and decreased microbial biomass by 8%. In addition, we found no evidence for trophic cascades in terrestrial soil food webs, but the bacterivorous component of soil fauna influenced plant productivity and microbial biomass more than did the fungivorous component. Furthermore, changes in the biomass of soil fauna differentially affected plant productivity among plant functional groups: a higher biomass of soil fauna increased aboveground productivity by 70% in coniferous systems. However, in ecosystems dominated by legumes, a functional group with lower inorganic nitrogen requirements, there was no response of aboveground productivity to increases in the biomass of soil fauna. In sum, the results of this meta‐analysis indicate that soil fauna help to regulate ecosystem production, especially in nutrient‐limited ecosystems.     

Ecological impacts of an invasive mesopredator do not differ from those of a native mesopredator: lionfish in Caribbean Panama

Coral Reefs - The impacts of invasive lionfish (Pterois volitans/miles) on native coral reef populations in the Western Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea can be enormous. However, how much lionfish...     

Tardive dyskinesia risk with first‐ and second‐generation antipsychotics in comparative randomized controlled trials: a meta‐analysis

Tardive dyskinesia (TD) risk with D2/serotonin receptor antagonists or D2 receptor partial agonists (second‐generation antipsychotics, SGAs) is considered significantly lower than with D2 antagonists (first‐generation antipsychotics, FGAs). As some reports questioned this notion, we meta‐analyzed randomized controlled studies (RCTs) to estimate the risk ratio (RR) and annualized rate ratio (RaR) of TD comparing SGAs vs. FGAs and SGAs vs. SGAs. Additionally, we calculated raw and annualized pooled TD rates for each antipsychotic. Data from 57 head‐to‐head RCTs, including 32 FGA and 86 SGA arms, were meta‐analyzed, yielding 32 FGA‐SGA pairs and 35 SGA‐SGA pairs. The annualized TD incidence across FGA arms was 6.5% (95% CI: 5.3‐7.8%) vs. 2.6% (95% CI: 2.0‐3.1%) across SGA arms. TD risk and annualized rates were lower with SGAs vs. FGAs (RR=0.47, 95% CI: 0.39‐0.57, p<0.0001, k=28; RaR=0.35, 95% CI: 0.28‐0.45, p<0.0001, number‐needed‐to‐treat, NNT=20). Meta‐regression showed no FGA dose effect on FGA‐SGA comparisons (Z=?1.03, p=0.30). FGA‐SGA TD RaRs differed by SGA comparator (Q=21.8, df=7, p=0.003), with a significant advantage of olanzapine and aripiprazole over other non‐clozapine SGAs in exploratory pairwise comparisons. SGA‐SGA comparisons confirmed the olanzapine advantage vs. non‐clozapine SGAs (RaR=0.66, 95% CI: 0.49‐0.88, p=0.006, k=17, NNT=100). This meta‐analysis confirms a clinically meaningfully lower TD risk with SGAs vs. FGAs, which is not driven by high dose FGA comparators, and documents significant differences with respect to this risk between individual SGAs.     

Bacterial community collapse: a meta‐analysis of the sinonasal microbiota in chronic rhinosinusitis

Chronic rhinosinusitis (CRS) is a common, debilitating condition characterized by long‐term inflammation of the nasal cavity and paranasal sinuses. The role of the sinonasal bacteria in CRS is unclear. We conducted a meta‐analysis combining and reanalysing published bacterial 16S rRNA sequence data to explore differences in sinonasal bacterial community composition and predicted function between healthy and CRS affected subjects. The results identify the most abundant bacteria across all subjects as Staphylococcus, Propionibacterium, Corynebacterium, Streptococcus and an unclassified lineage of Actinobacteria. The meta‐analysis results suggest that the bacterial community associated with CRS patients is dysbiotic and ecological networks fostering healthy communities are fragmented. Increased dispersion of bacterial communities, significantly lower bacterial diversity, and increased abundance of members of the genus Corynebacterium are associated with CRS. Increased relative abundance and diversity of other members belonging to the phylum Actinobacteria and members from the genera Propionibacterium differentiated healthy sinuses from those that were chronically inflamed. Removal of Burkholderia and Propionibacterium phylotypes from the healthy community dataset was correlated with a significant increase in network fragmentation. This meta‐analysis highlights the potential importance of the genera Burkholderia and Propionibacterium as gatekeepers, whose presence may be important in maintaining a stable sinonasal bacterial community.     

Adding psychotherapy to antidepressant medication in depression and anxiety disorders: a meta‐analysis

We conducted a meta‐analysis of randomized trials in which the effects of treatment with antidepressant medication were compared to the effects of combined pharmacotherapy and psychotherapy in adults with a diagnosed depressive or anxiety disorder. A total of 52 studies (with 3,623 patients) met inclusion criteria, 32 on depressive disorders and 21 on anxiety disorders (one on both depressive and anxiety disorders). The overall difference between pharmacotherapy and combined treatment was Hedges' g = 0.43 (95% CI: 0.31‐0.56), indicating a moderately large effect and clinically meaningful difference in favor of combined treatment, which corresponds to a number needed to treat (NNT) of 4.20. There was sufficient evidence that combined treatment is superior for major depression, panic disorder, and obsessive‐compulsive disorder (OCD). The effects of combined treatment compared with placebo only were about twice as large as those of pharmacotherapy compared with placebo only, underscoring the clinical advantage of combined treatment. The results also suggest that the effects of pharmacotherapy and those of psychotherapy are largely independent from each other, with both contributing about equally to the effects of combined treatment. We conclude that combined treatment appears to be more effective than treatment with antidepressant medication alone in major depression, panic disorder, and OCD. These effects remain strong and significant up to two years after treatment. Monotherapy with psychotropic medication may not constitute optimal care for common mental disorders.     

Body size and spatial scales in avian response to landscapes: a meta‐analysis

Response of species to their environment is dependent on the scales that individuals interact with landscapes. Several life‐history traits have been suggested to influence scales of response to landscapes, but little empirical work has addressed this issue, limiting our ability to predict the relevant scale(s) at which species respond to their environment. Body size is frequently hypothesized to be relevant for predicting the effects of landscape structure on species given correlations between body size and various measures of mobility or perceptual range, yet evidence of this relationship remains equivocal. We conducted a meta‐analysis of 22 studies to address the question of whether body size is related to the characteristic scale at which bird species respond to landscape structure. On the basis of correlation coefficients and linear mixed models, we show that body size is positively related to the characteristic scale of response to landscapes. The strength of this relationship is less than body size – dispersal allometries, suggesting that response to landscapes may be influenced, in part, by factors other than dispersal (e.g. territory size). However, the strength of the observed body size – scale relationship may have been affected by several factors, including limitations in the range of body sizes and landscape extents tested. Our findings suggest that life‐history traits mediate aspects of the scales at which species respond to the landscape and contribute to developing a more predictive framework for investigating scalar relationships in nature.     

Lack of evidence to favor specific preventive interventions in psychosis: a network meta‐analysis

Preventing psychosis in patients at clinical high risk may be a promising avenue for pre‐emptively ameliorating outcomes of the most severe psychiatric disorder. However, information on how each preventive intervention fares against other currently available treatment options remains unavailable. The aim of the current study was to quantify the consistency and magnitude of effects of specific preventive interventions for psychosis, comparing different treatments in a network meta‐analysis. PsycINFO, Web of Science, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, and unpublished/grey literature were searched up to July 18, 2017, to identify randomized controlled trials conducted in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis, comparing different types of intervention and reporting transition to psychosis. Two reviewers independently extracted data. Data were synthesized using network meta‐analyses. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis at different time points and the secondary outcome was treatment acceptability (dropout due to any cause). Effect sizes were reported as odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Sixteen studies (2,035 patients, 57% male, mean age 20.1 years) reported on risk of transition. The treatments tested were needs‐based interventions (NBI); omega‐3 + NBI; ziprasidone + NBI; olanzapine + NBI; aripiprazole + NBI; integrated psychological interventions; family therapy + NBI; D‐serine + NBI; cognitive behavioural therapy, French & Morrison protocol (CBT‐F) + NBI; CBT‐F + risperidone + NBI; and cognitive behavioural therapy, van der Gaag protocol (CBT‐V) + CBT‐F + NBI. The network meta‐analysis showed no evidence of significantly superior efficacy of any one intervention over the others at 6 and 12 months (insufficient data were available after 12 months). Similarly, there was no evidence for intervention differences in acceptability at either time point. Tests for inconsistency were non‐significant and sensitivity analyses controlling for different clustering of interventions and biases did not materially affect the interpretation of the results. In summary, this study indicates that, to date, there is no evidence that any specific intervention is particularly effective over the others in preventing transition to psychosis. Further experimental research is needed.     

The efficacy of app‐supported smartphone interventions for mental health problems: a meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials

Although impressive progress has been made toward developing empirically‐supported psychological treatments, the reality remains that a significant proportion of people with mental health problems do not receive these treatments. Finding ways to reduce this treatment gap is crucial. Since app‐supported smartphone interventions are touted as a possible solution, access to up‐to‐date guidance around the evidence base and clinical utility of these interventions is needed. We conducted a meta‐analysis of 66 randomized controlled trials of app‐supported smartphone interventions for mental health problems. Smartphone interventions significantly outperformed control conditions in improving depressive (g=0.28, n=54) and generalized anxiety (g=0.30, n=39) symptoms, stress levels (g=0.35, n=27), quality of life (g=0.35, n=43), general psychiatric distress (g=0.40, n=12), social anxiety symptoms (g=0.58, n=6), and positive affect (g=0.44, n=6), with most effects being robust even after adjusting for various possible biasing factors (type of control condition, risk of bias rating). Smartphone interventions conferred no significant benefit over control conditions on panic symptoms (g=–0.05, n=3), post‐traumatic stress symptoms (g=0.18, n=4), and negative affect (g=–0.08, n=5). Studies that delivered a cognitive behavior therapy (CBT)‐based app and offered professional guidance and reminders to engage produced larger effects on multiple outcomes. Smartphone interventions did not differ significantly from active interventions (face‐to‐face, computerized treatment), although the number of studies was low (n≤13). The efficacy of app‐supported smartphone interventions for common mental health problems was thus confirmed. Although mental health apps are not intended to replace professional clinical services, the present findings highlight the potential of apps to serve as a cost‐effective, easily accessible, and low intensity intervention for those who cannot receive standard psychological treatment.     

The efficacy of smartphone‐based mental health interventions for depressive symptoms: a meta‐analysis of randomized controlled trials

The rapid advances and adoption of smartphone technology presents a novel opportunity for delivering mental health interventions on a population scale. Despite multi‐sector investment along with wide‐scale advertising and availability to the general population, the evidence supporting the use of smartphone apps in the treatment of depression has not been empirically evaluated. Thus, we conducted the first meta‐analysis of smartphone apps for depressive symptoms. An electronic database search in May 2017 identified 18 eligible randomized controlled trials of 22 smartphone apps, with outcome data from 3,414 participants. Depressive symptoms were reduced significantly more from smartphone apps than control conditions (g=0.38, 95% CI: 0.24‐0.52, p<0.001), with no evidence of publication bias. Smartphone interventions had a moderate positive effect in comparison to inactive controls (g=0.56, 95% CI: 0.38‐0.74), but only a small effect in comparison to active control conditions (g=0.22, 95% CI: 0.10‐0.33). Effects from smartphone‐only interventions were greater than from interventions which incorporated other human/computerized aspects along the smartphone component, although the difference was not statistically significant. The studies of cognitive training apps had a significantly smaller effect size on depression outcomes (p=0.004) than those of apps focusing on mental health. The use of mood monitoring softwares, or interventions based on cognitive behavioral therapy, or apps incorporating aspects of mindfulness training, did not affect significantly study effect sizes. Overall, these results indicate that smartphone devices are a promising self‐management tool for depression. Future research should aim to distil which aspects of these technologies produce beneficial effects, and for which populations.     

Guided Internet‐based vs. face‐to‐face cognitive behavior therapy for psychiatric and somatic disorders: a systematic review and meta‐analysis

Internet-delivered cognitive behavior therapy (ICBT) has been tested in many research trials, but to a lesser extent directly compared to face-to-face delivered cognitive behavior therapy (CBT). We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of trials in which guided ICBT was directly compared to face-to-face CBT. Studies on psychiatric and somatic conditions were included. Systematic searches resulted in 13 studies (total N=1053) that met all criteria and were included in the review. There were three studies on social anxiety disorder, three on panic disorder, two on depressive symptoms, two on body dissatisfaction, one on tinnitus, one on male sexual dysfunction, and one on spider phobia. Face-to-face CBT was either in the individual format (n=6) or in the group format (n=7). We also assessed quality and risk of bias. Results showed a pooled effect size (Hedges'' g) at post-treatment of −0.01 (95% CI: −0.13 to 0.12), indicating that guided ICBT and face-to-face treatment produce equivalent overall effects. Study quality did not affect outcomes. While the overall results indicate equivalence, there are still few studies for each psychiatric and somatic condition and many conditions for which guided ICBT has not been compared to face-to-face treatment. Thus, more research is needed to establish equivalence of the two treatment formats.     

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to temperature and precipitation change: a meta‐analysis of experimental manipulation

Global mean temperature is predicted to increase by 2–7 °C and precipitation to change across the globe by the end of this century. To quantify climate effects on ecosystem processes, a number of climate change experiments have been established around the world in various ecosystems. Despite these efforts, general responses of terrestrial ecosystems to changes in temperature and precipitation, and especially to their combined effects, remain unclear. We used meta‐analysis to synthesize ecosystem‐level responses to warming, altered precipitation, and their combination. We focused on plant growth and ecosystem carbon (C) balance, including biomass, net primary production (NPP), respiration, net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and ecosystem photosynthesis, synthesizing results from 85 studies. We found that experimental warming and increased precipitation generally stimulated plant growth and ecosystem C fluxes, whereas decreased precipitation had the opposite effects. For example, warming significantly stimulated total NPP, increased ecosystem photosynthesis, and ecosystem respiration. Experimentally reduced precipitation suppressed aboveground NPP (ANPP) and NEE, whereas supplemental precipitation enhanced ANPP and NEE. Plant productivity and ecosystem C fluxes generally showed higher sensitivities to increased precipitation than to decreased precipitation. Interactive effects of warming and altered precipitation tended to be smaller than expected from additive, single‐factor effects, though low statistical power limits the strength of these conclusions. New experiments with combined temperature and precipitation manipulations are needed to conclusively determine the importance of temperature–precipitation interactions on the C balance of terrestrial ecosystems under future climate conditions.     

Carry‐over effects and compensation: late arrival on non‐breeding grounds affects wing moult but not plumage or schedules of departing bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri

In the annual cycle of migratory birds, temporal and energetic constraints can lead to carry‐over effects, in which performance in one life history stage affects later stages. Bar‐tailed godwits Limosa lapponica baueri, which achieve remarkably high pre‐migratory fuel loads, undertake the longest non‐stop migratory flights yet recorded, and breed during brief high‐latitude summers, may be particularly vulnerable to persistent effects of disruptions to their rigidly‐timed annual routines. Using three years of non‐breeding data in New Zealand, we asked how arrival timing after a non‐stop flight from Alaska (>11 000 km) affected an individual godwit's performance in subsequent flight feather moult, contour feather moults, and migratory departure. Late arrival led to later wing moult, but godwits partially compensated for delayed moult initiation by increasing moult rate and decreasing the total duration of moult. Delays in arrival and wing moult up to 34–37 d had no apparent effect on an individual's migratory departure or extent of breeding plumage at departure, both of which were extraordinarily consistent between years. Thus, ‘errors’ in timing early in the non‐breeding season were essentially corrected in New Zealand prior to spring migration. Variation in migration timing also had no apparent effect on an individual's likelihood of returning the following season. The bar‐tailed godwits’ rigid maintenance of plumage and spring migration schedules, coupled with high annual survival, imply a surprising degree of flexibility to address unforeseen circumstances in the annual cycle.     

CTLA4 and generalized vitiligo: two genetic association studies and a meta‐analysis of published data

Several lines of evidence have implicated the gene encoding cytotoxic T lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA4) in susceptibility to various autoimmune diseases. However, published studies of genetic association between CTLA4 polymorphisms and vitiligo have yielded conflicting results. Here, we describe two new genetic association studies of CTLA4 single‐nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and generalized vitiligo in two independent Romanian Caucasian (CEU) case‐control cohorts. The first study, of SNPs rs1863800, rs231806, rs231775, rs3087243, rs11571302, rs11571297, and rs10932037, showed no allelic, genotypic, or haplotypic association with generalized vitiligo. The second study, of SNP rs231775, likewise showed no significant association. To enhance statistical power over that of any individual study, we carried out a meta‐analysis that incorporated these two new studies and all other published genetic association studies of CTLA4 SNPs and vitiligo in CEU populations. While there was no association with vitiligo overall, the meta‐analysis showed significant association of SNP rs231775 in that subgroup of vitiligo patients who also had other concomitant autoimmune diseases. Similarly, there was near‐significant association in this same patient subgroup with several other CTLA4 SNPs that are in linkage disequilibrium with rs231775. Our results indicate that the association of CTLA4 with vitiligo is weak, and indeed may be secondary, driven by primary genetic association of CTLA4 with other autoimmune diseases that are epidemiologically associated with vitiligo.