Consequential Life Cycle Assessment of Policy Vulnerability to Price Effects

The application of life cycle assessment (LCA) in a policy context highlights the need for a “consequential” LCA (CLCA), which differs from an “attributional” LCA (ALCA). Although CLCA offers some advantages over ALCA, such as a capacity to account for emissions resulting from both substitution and price effects, it entails additional assumptions and cost and may yield estimates that are more uncertain (e.g., estimates of impact of biofuel policies on greenhouse gas [GHG] emissions). We illustrate how a CLCA that relies on simple partial equilibrium models could provide important insights on the direction and magnitude of price effects while limiting the complexity of CLCA. We describe how such a CLCA, when applied early in the policy life cycle, could help identify policy formulations that reduce the magnitude of adverse price effects relative to the beneficial substitution effect on emissions because—as the experience with biofuel regulations indicates—regulating price effects is costly and controversial. We conclude that the salient contribution of CLCA in the policy process might lie in warning policy makers about the vulnerabilities in a policy with regard to environmental impact and to help modify potentially counterproductive formulations rather than in deriving the precise estimates for uncertain variables, such as the life cycle GHG intensity of product or average indirect emissions.     

Life cycle assessment of commercial furniture: a case study of Formway LIFE chair

Background, aims and scope  The environmental aspects of companies and their products are becoming more significant in delivering competitive advantage. Formway Furniture, a designer and manufacturer of office furniture products, is a New Zealand-based company that is committed to sustainable development. It manufactures two models of the light, intuitive, flexible and environmental (LIFE) office chair: one with an aluminium base and one with a glass-filled nylon (GFN) base. It was decided to undertake a life cycle assessment (LCA) study of these two models in order to: (1) determine environmental hotspots in the life cycle of the two chairs (goal 1); (2) compare the life cycle impacts of the two chairs (goal 2); and (3) compare alternative potential waste-management scenarios (goal 3). The study also included sensitivity analysis with respect to recycled content of aluminium in the product. Materials and methods  The LIFE chair models consist of a mix of metal and plastic components manufactured by selected Formway suppliers according to design criteria. Hence, the research methodology included determining the specific material composition of the two chair models and acquisition of manufacturing data from individual suppliers. These data were compiled and used in conjunction with pre-existing data, specifically from the ecoinvent database purchased in conjunction with the SimaPro7 LCA software, to develop the life cycle inventory of the two chair models. The life cycle stages included in the study extended from raw-material extraction through to waste management. Impact assessment was carried out using CML 2 baseline 2000, the methodology developed by Leiden University’s Institute for Environmental Sciences. Results  This paper presents results for global warming potential (GWP100). The study showed a significant impact contribution from the raw-material extraction/refinement stage for both chair models; aluminium extraction and refining made the greatest contribution to GWP100. The comparison of the two LIFE chair models showed that the model with the aluminium base had a higher GWP100 impact than the model with the GFN base. The waste-management scenario compared the GWP100 result when (1) both chair models were sent to landfill and (2) steel and aluminium components were recycled with the remainder of the chair sent to landfill. The results showed that the recycling scenario contributed to a reduced GWP100 result. Since production and processing of aluminium was found to be significant, a sensitivity analysis was carried out to determine the impact of using aluminium with different recycled contents (0%, 34% and 100%) in both waste-management scenarios; this showed that increased use of recycled aluminium was beneficial. The recycling at end-of-life scenarios was modelled using two different end-of-life allocation approaches, i.e. consequential and attributional, in order to illustrate the variation in results caused by choice of allocation approach. The results using the consequential approach showed that recycling at end-of-life was beneficial, while use of the attributional method led to a similar GWP100 as that seen for the landfill scenario. Discussion  The results show that the main hotspot in the life cycle is the raw-material extraction/refinement stage. This can be attributed to the extraction and processing of aluminium, a material that is energy intensive. The LIFE chair model with the aluminium base has a higher GWP100 as it contains more aluminium. Sensitivity analysis pertaining to the recycled content of aluminium showed that use of aluminium with high recycled content was beneficial; this is because production of recycled aluminium is less energy intensive than production of primary aluminium. The waste-management scenario showed that recycling at end-of-life resulted in a significantly lower GWP100 than landfilling at end-of-life. However, this result is dependent upon the modelling approach used for recycling. Conclusions  With respect to goal 1, the study found that the raw-material extraction/refinement stage of the life cycle was a significant factor for both LIFE chair models. This was largely due to the use of aluminium in the product. For goal 2, it was found that the LIFE chair model with the aluminium base had a higher GWP100 than the GFN model, again due to the material content of the two models. Results for goal 3 illustrated that recycling at end-of-life is beneficial when using a system expansion (consequential) approach to model recycling; if an attributional ‘cut-off’ approach is used to model recycling at end-of-life, there is virtually no difference in the results between landfilling and recycling. Sensitivity analysis pertaining to the recycled content of aluminium showed that use of higher recycled contents leads to a lower GWP100 impact. Recommendation and perspectives  Most of the GWP100 impact was contributed during the raw-material extraction/refinement stage of the life cycle; thus, the overall impact of both LIFE chair models may be reduced through engaging in material choice and supply chain environmental management with respect to environmental requirements. The study identified aluminium components as a major contributor to GWP100 for both LIFE chair models and also highlighted the sensitivity of the results to its recycled content. Thus, it is recommended that the use of aluminium in future product designs be limited unless it is possible to use aluminium with a high recycled content. With respect to waste management, it was found that a substantial reduction in the GWP100 impact would occur if the chairs are recycled rather than landfilled, assuming an expanding market for aluminium. Thus, recycling the two LIFE chair models at end-of-life is highly recommended.     

LCA and decision making: when and how to use consequential LCA; 62nd LCA forum,Swiss Federal Institute of Technology,Zürich, 9 September 2016

The 62nd life cycle assessment (LCA) forum was held on 9 September 2016 to discuss the state of research and application with regard to consequential life cycle assessment. This conference report presents the highlights of the LCA forum. The state of the art of consequential LCA was presented from different viewpoints. It was pointed out that consequential LCA is more than marginal mixes and avoided burdens and involves causal modelling. It was also said that social responsibility calls for consequential LCA. Currently, different models are used to support decision making. It was suggested to make use of the variety of models to check the conclusiveness of their results and thus the reliability of the LCAs. Current and future implementations of consequential LCI models in background databases and linking algorithms were presented. Several speakers presented consequential LCA case studies covering the sectors energy, transport, housing and mining. Some of the LCA models used in the case studies are complemented with general and partial computable equilibrium models and agent-based models and use environmentally extended input-output data or process-based LCA data. Some of the presentations focused on elements such as constrained production, marginal market mixes and technologies or recycling and system expansion. In three parallel workshops, the needs, contents and methodology, and implementation of consequential LCA approaches were discussed. The participants seemed to generally agree on the basic goal that LCA should be able to reflect the consequences of decisions. The inquiry among the participants showed that the demand for consequential LCA studies is hardly existent. The appropriate implementation of consequential modelling in LCA databases and on the appropriate model to be used in consequential LCA case studies was debated. It revealed a need for further and extensive discussions to be able to reach (minimum) consensus.     

The Consequences of Substituting Sand with Used Copper Slag in Construction

Using waste copper slag (CS) as a replacement for sand in concrete mixture is becoming popular in Singapore and around the world. What are the consequences of this material substitution? Will this result in lower environmental impact? This work used attributional and consequential life cycle assessments to evaluate the net results of replacing sand with CS. Impacts were assessed with respect to embodied energy and greenhouse gas emissions (global warming potential; GWP). It was found that embodied energy and GWP of using a combination of 0.13 kilograms (kg) of CS and 0.9 kg of sand are higher than those of 1 kg of sand. If CS replaces sand and the leftover sand replaces crushed rock sand, the net embodied energy and GWP may also increase. Landfilling the waste CS is similar to recycling it as a building material, in terms of embodied energy incurred and GWPs. Finally, four lessons from these findings were used to suggest a few integrated sustainable resource management policies for the building material and shipping industries.     

Choice of Allocations and Constructs for Attributional or Consequential Life Cycle Assessment and Input‐Output Analysis

The divide between attributional and consequential research perspectives partly overlaps with the long‐standing methodological discussions in the life cycle assessment (LCA) and input‐output analysis (IO) research communities on the choice of techniques and models for dealing with situations of coproduction. The recent harmonization of LCA allocations and IO constructs revealed a more diverse set of coproduction models than had previously been understood. This increased flexibility and transparency in inventory modeling warrants a re‐evaluation of the treatment of coproduction in analyses with attributional and consequential perspectives. In the present article, the main types of coproductions situations and of coproduction models are reviewed, along with key desirable characteristics of attributional and consequential studies. A concordance analysis leads to clear recommendations, which call for important refinements to current guidelines for both LCA/IO practitioners and database developers. We notably challenge the simple association between, on the one hand, attributional LCA and partition allocation, and on the one hand, consequential LCA and substitution modeling.     

Integrated Economic Equilibrium and Life Cycle Assessment Modeling for Policy‐based Consequential LCA

Consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a tool for estimating environmental impacts of changes in product systems that go beyond physical relationships accounted for in attributional LCA (ALCA). This study builds on recent efforts to use more complex economic models for policy‐based CLCA. A partial market equilibrium (PME) model, called the U.S. Forest Products Module (USFPM), is combined with LCA to analyze an energy demand scenario in which wood use increases 400 million cubic meters in the United States for ethanol production. Several types of indirect economic and environmental impacts are identified and estimated using USFPM‐LCA. A key finding is that if wood use for biofuels increases to high levels and mill residue is used for biofuels and replaced by natural gas for heat and power in forest products mills, then the increased greenhouse gas emissions from natural gas could offset reductions obtained by substituting biofuels for gasoline. Such high levels of biofuel demand, however, appear to have relatively low environmental impacts across related forest product sectors.     

Legacy effects of individual crops affect N2O emissions accounting within crop rotations

Uruguay is pursuing renewable energy production pathways using feedstocks from its agricultural sector to supply transportation fuels, among them ethanol produced from commercial technologies that use sweet and grain sorghum. However, the environmental performance of the fuel is not known. We investigate the life cycle environmental and cost performance of these two major agricultural crops used to produce ethanol that have begun commercial production and are poised to grow to meet national energy targets for replacing gasoline. Using both attributional and consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) frameworks for system boundaries to quantify the carbon intensity, and engineering cost analysis to estimate the unit production cost of ethanol from grain and sweet sorghum, we determined abatement costs. We found 1) an accounting error in estimating N₂O emissions for a specific crop in multiple crop rotations when using Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) Tier 1 methods within an attributional LCA framework, due to N legacy effects; 2) choice of baseline and crop identity in multiple crop rotations evaluated within the consequential LCA framework both affect the global warming intensity (GWI) of ethanol; and 3) although abatement costs for ethanol from grain sorghum are positive and from sweet sorghum they are negative, both grain and sweet sorghum pathways have a high potential for reducing transport fuel GWI by more than 50% relative to gasoline, and are within the ranges targeted by the US renewable transportation fuel policies.     

中国省级火电供应生命周期清单分析

应用生命周期评价方法,建立了我国各省区的火电供应生命周期清单。清单分析结果表明,我国各省区单位火电供应的生命周期清单之间,及与全国单位火电供应的生命周期清单之间均存在一定差异,以总能源投入和全球变暖潜值为例进行了分析。在全球变暖潜值方面,我国单位火电供应的平均值为1.05kg/k Wh。云南等15个省区的单位火电全球变暖潜值与全国平均水平相差±10%以上。如果基于全国单位火电供应的平均全球变暖潜值计算各省火电总量全球变暖潜值,与基于各省单位火电全球变暖潜值计算的结果相比,也存在一定的差距。15个省区与基于全国平均值计算的结果相差±10%以上,表明了核算各省区火电清单的必要性。中国省级火电供应生命周期清单为省区级别的材料、产品、产业等生命周期评价提供数据支撑,也为各省区电力节能减排提供了理论基础。     

Steel‐versus‐Concrete Debate Revisited: Global Warming Potential and Embodied Energy Analyses based on Attributional and Consequential Life Cycle Perspectives

In the study of sustainable building materials, the comparison of the life cycle environmental performance of steel and reinforced concrete has been a popular and important topic. Based in Singapore, this is one of the first studies in the literature that applies both attributional and consequential life cycle approaches to compare the global warming potential and embodied energies of these two materials, which are widely used for the structural parts of buildings. It was found that 1 kilogram (kg) of steel can be replaced by 1 or 4.25 kg of reinforced concrete. Two consequential scenarios for each of three combinations of primary and secondary steel were assessed. It was found that reinforced concrete produces less carbon dioxide emissions and incurs less embodied energy in most of these cases, but when different sustainable primary steel‐making technologies were incorporated, these results may be reversed. We applied consequential life cycle assessment and scenario analysis to describe how changes in the demand for structural steel and reinforced concrete in Singapore's building industry give rise to different environmental impacts. Specifically, the consequential life cycle approach revealed that, over the short term, the impact of substituting steel with reinforced concrete depends on the difference in impacts resulting from the transportation of these two materials within Singapore. Based on these lessons, integrated technology policies to improve the overall sustainability of using steel for construction were proposed.     

Climate mitigation by dairy intensification depends on intensive use of spared grassland

Milk and beef production cause 9% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Previous life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have shown that dairy intensification reduces the carbon footprint of milk by increasing animal productivity and feed conversion efficiency. None of these studies simultaneously evaluated indirect GHG effects incurred via teleconnections with expansion of feed crop production and replacement suckler‐beef production. We applied consequential LCA to incorporate these effects into GHG mitigation calculations for intensification scenarios among grazing‐based dairy farms in an industrialized country (UK), in which milk production shifts from average to intensive farm typologies, involving higher milk yields per cow and more maize and concentrate feed in cattle diets. Attributional LCA indicated a reduction of up to 0.10 kg CO₂e kg^?1 milk following intensification, reflecting improved feed conversion efficiency. However, consequential LCA indicated that land use change associated with increased demand for maize and concentrate feed, plus additional suckler‐beef production to replace reduced dairy‐beef output, significantly increased GHG emissions following intensification. International displacement of replacement suckler‐beef production to the “global beef frontier” in Brazil resulted in small GHG savings for the UK GHG inventory, but contributed to a net increase in international GHG emissions equivalent to 0.63 kg CO₂e kg^?1 milk. Use of spared dairy grassland for intensive beef production can lead to net GHG mitigation by replacing extensive beef production, enabling afforestation on larger areas of lower quality grassland, or by avoiding expansion of international (Brazilian) beef production. We recommend that LCA boundaries are expanded when evaluating livestock intensification pathways, to avoid potentially misleading conclusions being drawn from “snapshot” carbon footprints. We conclude that dairy intensification in industrialized countries can lead to significant international carbon leakage, and only achieves GHG mitigation when spared dairy grassland is used to intensify beef production, freeing up larger areas for afforestation.     

Using Attributional Life Cycle Assessment to Estimate Climate‐Change Mitigation Benefits Misleads Policy Makers

Life cycle assessment (LCA) is generally described as a tool for environmental decision making. Results from attributional LCA (ALCA), the most commonly used LCA method, often are presented in a way that suggests that policy decisions based on these results will yield the quantitative benefits estimated by ALCA. For example, ALCAs of biofuels are routinely used to suggest that the implementation of one alternative (say, a biofuel) will cause an X% change in greenhouse gas emissions, compared with a baseline (typically gasoline). However, because of several simplifications inherent in ALCA, the method, in fact, is not predictive of real‐world impacts on climate change, and hence the usual quantitative interpretation of ALCA results is not valid. A conceptually superior approach, consequential LCA (CLCA), avoids many of the limitations of ALCA, but because it is meant to model actual changes in the real world, CLCA results are scenario dependent and uncertain. These limitations mean that even the best practical CLCAs cannot produce definitive quantitative estimates of actual environmental outcomes. Both forms of LCA, however, can yield valuable insights about potential environmental effects, and CLCA can support robust decision making. By openly recognizing the limitations and understanding the appropriate uses of LCA as discussed here, practitioners and researchers can help policy makers implement policies that are less likely to have perverse effects and more likely to lead to effective environmental policies, including climate mitigation strategies.     

Including albedo in time‐dependent LCA of bioenergy

Albedo change during feedstock production can substantially alter the life cycle climate impact of bioenergy. Life cycle assessment (LCA) studies have compared the effects of albedo and greenhouse gases (GHGs) based on global warming potential (GWP). However, using GWP leads to unequal weighting of climate forcers that act on different timescales. In this study, albedo was included in the time‐dependent LCA, which accounts for the timing of emissions and their impacts. We employed field‐measured albedo and life cycle emissions data along with time‐dependent models of radiative transfer, biogenic carbon fluxes and nitrous oxide emissions from soil. Climate impacts were expressed as global mean surface temperature change over time (?T) and as GWP. The bioenergy system analysed was heat and power production from short‐rotation willow grown on former fallow land in Sweden. We found a net cooling effect in terms of ?T per hectare (?3.8 × 10^–11 K in year 100) and GWP₁₀₀ per MJ fuel (?12.2 g CO₂e), as a result of soil carbon sequestration via high inputs of carbon from willow roots and litter. Albedo was higher under willow than fallow, contributing to the cooling effect and accounting for 34% of GWP₁₀₀, 36% of ?T in year 50 and 6% of ?T in year 100. Albedo dominated the short‐term temperature response (10–20 years) but became, in relative terms, less important over time, owing to accumulation of soil carbon under sustained production and the longer perturbation lifetime of GHGs. The timing of impacts was explicit with ?T, which improves the relevance of LCA results to climate targets. Our method can be used to quantify the first‐order radiative effect of albedo change on the global climate and relate it to the climate impact of GHG emissions in LCA of bioenergy, alternative energy sources or land uses.     

Generalized Make and Use Framework for Allocation in Life Cycle Assessment

Allocation in life cycle inventory (LCI) analysis is one of the long‐standing methodological issues in life cycle assessment (LCA). Discussion on allocation among LCA researchers has taken place almost in complete isolation from the series of closely related discussions from the 1960s in the field of input?output economics, regarding the supply and use framework. This article aims at developing a coherent mathematical framework for allocation in LCA by connecting the parallel developments of the LCA and the input?output communities. In doing so, the article shows that the partitioning method in LCA is equivalent to the industry‐technology model in input?output economics, and system expansion in LCA is equivalent to the by‐product‐technology model in input?output output economics. Furthermore, we argue that the commodity‐technology model and the by‐product‐technology model, which have been considered as two different models in input?output economics for more than 40 years, are essentially equivalent when it comes to practical applications. It is shown that the matrix‐based approach used for system expansion successfully solves the endless regression problem that has been raised in LCA literature. A numerical example is introduced to demonstrate the use of allocation models. The relationship of these approaches with consequential and attributional LCA models is also discussed.     

A review of methods for characterizing the environmental consequences of actions in life cycle assessment

Understanding the environmental consequences of actions is becoming increasingly important in the field of industrial ecology in general, and in life cycle assessment (LCA) more specifically. However, a consensus on how to operationalize this idea has not been reached. A variety of methods have been proposed and applied to case studies that cover various aspects of consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA). Previous reviews of the topic have focused on the broad agenda of CLCA and how different modeling frameworks fit into its goals. However, explicit examination of the spectrum of methods and their application to the different facets of CLCA are lacking. Here, we provide a detailed review of methods that have been used to construct models of the environmental consequences of actions in CLCA. First, we cover the following structural modeling approaches: (a) economic equilibrium models, (b) system dynamics models, (c) technology choice models, and (d) agent‐based models. We provide a detailed review of particular applications of each model in the CLCA domain. The advantages and disadvantages of each are discussed, and their relationships with CLCA are clarified. From this, we are able to map these models onto the established aspects of CLCA. We learn that structural models alone are not sufficient to quantify the uncertainty distributions of underlying parameters in CLCA, which are essential components of a robust analysis of consequences. To address this, we provide a brief introduction to a counterfactual‐based causal inference approach to parameter identification and uncertainty analysis that is emerging in the CLCA literature. We recommend that one potential research path forward is the establishment of feedback loops between empirical estimates and structural models.     

生命周期评价方法在城市生活垃圾管理中的应用研究述评

结合城市生活垃圾管理系统特征,系统归纳基于生命周期评价(Life cycle assessment,LCA)方法的城市生活垃圾管理模型的发展现状,并对LCA方法在城市生活垃圾管理中的实践以及在我国开展城市生活垃圾管理LCA研究的应用前景进行评述。分析表明,LCA是城市生活垃圾管理领域的重要工具之一,基于LCA方法的城市生活垃圾管理模型在全生命周期环境影响评价与识别、处置工艺选择与改进、可持续生活垃圾管理决策支持等方面具有十分重要的应用价值。中国在本地化生活垃圾管理系统LCA模型开发、清单数据库和评价指标体系构建以及与其他研究方法集成等方面面临挑战。     

No Matter – How?: Dealing with Matter‐less Stressors in LCA of Wind Energy Systems

The portfolio of impacts that are quantified in life cycle assessment (LCA) has grown to include rather different stressors than those that were the focus of early LCAs. Some of the newest life cycle impact assessment (LCIA) models are still in an early phase of development and have not yet been included in any LCA study. This is the case for sound emissions and noise impacts, which have been only recently modeled. Sound emissions are matter‐less, time dependent, and bound to the physical properties of waves. The way sound emissions and the relative noise impacts are modeled in LCA can show how new or existing matter‐less impacts can be addressed. In this study, we analyze, through the example of sound emissions, the specific features of a matter‐less impact that does not stem from the use of a kilogram of matter, nor is related to the emission of a kilogram of matter. We take as a case study the production of energy by means of wind turbines, contradicting the commonly held assumption that windmills have no emissions during use. We show how to account for sound emissions in the life cycle inventory phase of the life cycle of a wind turbine and then calculate the relative impacts using a noise LCIA model.     

Life Cycle Attribute Assessment

Practitioners of life cycle assessment (LCA) have recently turned their attention to social issues in the supply chain. The United Nations life cycle initiative's social LCA task force has completed its guidelines for social life cycle assessment of products, and awareness of managing upstream corporate social responsibility (CSR) issues has risen due to the growing popularity of LCA. This article explores one approach to assessing social issues in the supply chain—life cycle attribute assessment (LCAA). The approach was originally proposed by Gregory Norris in 2006, and we present here a case study. LCAA builds on the theoretical structure of environmental LCA to construct a supply chain model. Instead of calculating quantitative impacts, however, it asks the question “What percentage of my supply chain has attribute X?” X may represent a certification from a CSR body or a self‐defined attribute, such as “is locally produced.” We believe LCAA may serve as an aid to discussions of how current and popular CSR indicators may be integrated into a supply chain model. The case study demonstrates the structure of LCAA, which is very similar to that of traditional environmental LCA. A labor hours data set was developed as a satellite matrix to determine number of worker hours in a greenhouse tomato supply. Data from the Quebec tomato producer were used to analyze how the company performed on eight sample LCAA indicators, and conclusions were drawn about where the company should focus CSR efforts.     

Consequential life cycle assessment: a review

Purpose  

Over the past two decades, consequential life cycle assessment (CLCA) has emerged as a modeling approach for capturing environmental impacts of product systems beyond physical relationships accounted for in attributional LCA (ALCA). Put simply, CLCA represents the convergence of LCA and economic modeling approaches.