Ecological niche modelling as an exploratory tool for identifying species limits: an example based on Mexican muroid rodents

Niche conservatism theory suggests that recently diverged sister species share the same ecological niche. However, if the ecological niche evolves as part of the speciation process, the ecological pattern could be useful for recognizing cryptic species. In a broad sense systematists agree that the niche characters could be used for species differentiation. However, to date such characters have been ignored. We used the genetic algorithm for rule‐set production for modelling the ecological niche as a means of inferring ecological divergence in allopatric populations of muroid rodents for which taxonomic identity is uncertain. Our results show that niche differentiation is significant in most of the identified phylogroups. The differentiation is likely associated with natural evolutionary units, which can be identified by applying species concepts based on phylogenetic and ecological patterns (e.g. phylogenetic, cohesive, evolutionary). Even so, the role of the niche partition within phylogenetic reconstruction may be a limited one.     

Predicting the distribution of Sasquatch in western North America: anything goes with ecological niche modelling

The availability of user-friendly software and publicly available biodiversity databases has led to a rapid increase in the use of ecological niche modelling to predict species distributions. A potential source of error in publicly available data that may affect the accuracy of ecological niche models (ENMs), and one that is difficult to correct for, is incorrect (or incomplete) taxonomy. Here we remind researchers of the need for careful evaluation of database records prior to use in modelling, especially when the presence of cryptic species is suspected or many records are based on indirect evidence. To draw attention to this potential problem, we construct ENMs for the North American Sasquatch (i.e. Bigfoot). Specifically, we use a large database of georeferenced putative sightings and footprints for Sasquatch in western North America, demonstrating how convincing environmentally predicted distributions of a taxon's potential range can be generated from questionable site-occurrence data. We compare the distribution of Bigfoot with an ENM for the black bear, Ursus americanus , and suggest that many sightings of this cryptozoid may be cases of mistaken identity.     

Ecological niches as stable distributional constraints on mammal species, with implications for Pleistocene extinctions and climate change projections for biodiversity

Aim Theoretical work suggests that species’ ecological niches should remain relatively constant over long‐term ecological time periods, but empirical tests are few. We present longitudinal studies of 23 extant mammal species, modelling ecological niches and predicting geographical distributions reciprocally between the Last Glacial Maximum and present to test this evolutionary conservatism. Location This study covered distributional shifts in mammal species across the lower 48 states of the United States. Methods We used a machine‐learning tool for modelling species’ ecological niches, based on known occurrences and electronic maps summarizing ecological dimensions, to assess the ability of ecological niches as modelled in one time period to predict the geographical distribution of the species in another period, and vice versa. Results High intertemporal predictivity between niche models and species’ occurrences indicate that niche conservatism is widespread among the taxa studied, particularly when statistical power is considered as a reason for failure of reciprocal predictions. Niche projections to the present for 8 mammal taxa that became extinct at the end of the Pleistocene generally increased in area, and thus do not support the hypothesis of niche collapse as a major driving force in their extinction. Main conclusions Ecological niches represent long‐term stable constraints on the distributional potential of species; indeed, this study suggests that mammal species have tracked consistent climate profiles throughout the drastic climate change events that marked the end of the Pleistocene glaciations. Many current modelling efforts focusing on anticipating climate change effects on species’ potential geographical distributions will be bolstered by this result — in essence, the first longitudinal demonstration of niche conservatism.     

Distribution Pattern and Climate Preferences of the Representatives of the Cosmopolitan Genus Sirthenea Spinola, 1840 (Heteroptera: Reduviidae: Peiratinae)

The main goal of this study was to predict, through the use of GIS tool as ecological niche modelling, potentially suitable ecological niche and defining the conditions of such niche for the representatives of the cosmopolitan genus Sirthenea. Among all known genera of the subfamily Peiratinae, only Sirthenea occurs on almost all continents and zoogeographical regions. Our research was based on 521 unique occurrence localities and a set of environmental variables covering the whole world. Based on occurrence localities, as well as climatic variables, digital elevation model, terrestrial ecoregions and biomes, information about the ecological preferences is given. Potentially useful ecological niches were modelled using Maxent software, which allowed for the creation of a map of the potential distribution and for determining climatic preferences. An analysis of climatic preferences suggested that the representatives of the genus were linked mainly to the tropical and temperate climates. An analysis of ecoregions also showed that they preferred areas with tree vegetation like tropical and subtropical moist broadleaf forests biomes as well as temperate broadleaf and mixed forest biomes. Therefore, on the basis of the museum data on the species occurrence and ecological niche modelling method, we provided new and valuable information on the potentially suitable habitat and the possible range of distribution of the genus Sirthenea along with its climatic preferences.     

Ecological niche modelling of the distribution of cold-water coral habitat using underwater remote sensing data

Despite a growing appreciation of the need to protect sensitive deep sea ecosystems such as cold-water corals, efforts to map the extent of their distribution are limited by their remoteness. Here we develop ecological niche models to predict the likely distributions of cold-water corals based on occurrence records and data describing environmental parameters (e.g. seafloor terrain attributes and oceanographic conditions). This study has used bathymetric data derived from ship-borne multibeam swath systems, species occurrence data from remotely operated vehicle video surveys and oceanographic parameters from hydrodynamic models to predict coral locations in regions where there is a paucity of direct observations. Predictions of the locations of the scleractinian coral, Lophelia pertusa are based primarily upon ecological niche modelling using a genetic algorithm. Its accuracy has been quantified at local (~ 25 km²) and regional scales (~ 4000 km²) along the Irish continental slope using a variety of error assessment techniques and a comparison with another ecological niche modelling technique. With appropriate choices of parameters and scales of analyses, ecological niche modelling has been effective in predicting the distributions of species at local and regional scales. Refinements of this approach have the potential to be particularly useful for ocean management given the need to manage areas of sensitive habitat where survey data are often limited.     

Niche similarities among white‐eared opossums (Mammalia,Didelphidae): Is ecological niche modelling relevant to setting species limits?

A complex of white‐eared opossums (Didelphis spp.) is distributed across three distinct areas of South America, but recent taxonomic treatments have disagreed regarding species limits in the group. We used ecological niche modelling to test whether ecological niches have been conserved or have diverged among the three forms in this group. Differences in combinations of niche and range were clear; however, when hypotheses of accessible areas for each species were considered, coarse‐grained niche dimensions (i.e. climatic dimensions) were seen not to differ across the complex. We discuss implications of these results for taxonomic recognition of species based on geographic and ecological characteristics and the implications of using ENM approaches to setting species limits. We suggest that ENM should be used to explore speciation mechanisms, rather than being applied to questions of setting species limits.     

Patterns of niche overlapping and richness among Geocoris species (Hemiptera: Geocoridae) in Iran

Several big-eyed bugs, Geocoris species, are abundant predators in many important agricultural cropping systems. Despite their apparent importance and high visibility little is known about their environmental relationships, niche overlap and species richness. To determine these ecological characteristics of 5 Geocoris species for use in conservation efforts, an extensive sampling was done in 152 localities of Iran. A richness model was developed using a maximum entropy modelling approach (Maxent) and ArcGIS software for the five species based on collection records in conjunction with eight environmental variables. Maps for habitat overlap were created for paired species using ArcGIS 10.2 and ENMTools. The species displayed different overlapping niche ranges from 1.97% to 37.25% in pair-wise comparisons. For species richness three categories (habitats dominated by 0–1, 2–3, and 4–5 species) represented 38.44%, 46.07%, and 15.49% of the modelled landscape, respectively. A direct relationship was found between humidity and the number of species present in different locations. Understanding the degree of ecological overlap between the Geocoris species, and their effective predation of aphids and mites, is critical in designing biological control methods in agroecosystems.     

BioBayes: a software package for Bayesian inference in systems biology

MOTIVATION: There are several levels of uncertainty involved in the mathematical modelling of biochemical systems. There often may be a degree of uncertainty about the values of kinetic parameters, about the general structure of the model and about the behaviour of biochemical species which cannot be observed directly. The methods of Bayesian inference provide a consistent framework for modelling and predicting in these uncertain conditions. We present a software package for applying the Bayesian inferential methodology to problems in systems biology. RESULTS: Described herein is a software package, BioBayes, which provides a framework for Bayesian parameter estimation and evidential model ranking over models of biochemical systems defined using ordinary differential equations. The package is extensible allowing additional modules to be included by developers. There are no other such packages available which provide this functionality.     

The effect of positional error on fine scale species distribution models increases for specialist species

Species occurrences inherently include positional error. Such error can be problematic for species distribution models (SDMs), especially those based on fine-resolution environmental data. It has been suggested that there could be a link between the influence of positional error and the width of the species ecological niche. Although positional errors in species occurrence data may imply serious limitations, especially for modelling species with narrow ecological niche, it has never been thoroughly explored. We used a virtual species approach to assess the effects of the positional error on fine-scale SDMs for species with environmental niches of different widths. We simulated three virtual species with varying niche breadth, from specialist to generalist. The true distribution of these virtual species was then altered by introducing different levels of positional error (from 5 to 500 m). We built generalized linear models and MaxEnt models using the distribution of the three virtual species (unaltered and altered) and a combination of environmental data at 5 m resolution. The models’ performance and niche overlap were compared to assess the effect of positional error with varying niche breadth in the geographical and environmental space. The positional error negatively impacted performance and niche overlap metrics. The amplitude of the influence of positional error depended on the species niche, with models for specialist species being more affected than those for generalist species. The positional error had the same effect on both modelling techniques. Finally, increasing sample size did not mitigate the negative influence of positional error. We showed that fine-scale SDMs are considerably affected by positional error, even when such error is low. Therefore, where new surveys are undertaken, we recommend paying attention to data collection techniques to minimize the positional error in occurrence data and thus to avoid its negative effect on SDMs, especially when studying specialist species.     

Iterative species distribution modelling and ground validation in endemism research: an Alpine jumping bristletail example

Endemic species play an important role in conservation ecology. However, knowledge of the real distribution and ecology is still scarce for many endemics. The aims of this study were to predict the distribution of the short-range endemic Alpine jumping bristletail Machilis pallida; to evaluate the actual level of endemism via ground validation using an iterative approach for testing the models in field trips and increasing the quality of the prediction step by step; and to test the potential of species distribution modelling for increasing the knowledge about the ecological niche. Based on seven known locations of M. pallida, we used species distribution modelling via Maxent. After a set of seven field trips a new model was built if new locations were found. Three such iterations were performed to increase model quality. We discovered four new locations of M. pallida, increasing the area of known distribution from 470 to 4,890?km². The distribution of M. pallida is thus wider than formerly known, but our results support Eastern Alpine endemism of the species. The knowledge about the ecological niche could be increased due to the newly found locations. Our study showcases the potential of the iterative approach of modelling and ground validation to evaluate the actual level of endemism and the ecological niche in Alpine species and beyond.     

Species pools in cultural landscapes – niche construction,ecological opportunity and niche shifts

This paper discusses the ecology of species that were favoured by the development of the cultural landscape in central and NW Europe beginning in the Neolithic and the Bronze Age, with a focus on mechanisms behind species responses to this landscape transformation. A fraction of species may have maintained their realized niches from the pre‐ agricultural landscape and utilized similar niches created by the landscape transformation. However, I suggest that many species responded by altering their niche relationships, and a conceptual model is proposed for this response, based on niche construction, ecological opportunity and niche shifts. Human‐mediated niche construction, associated with clearing of forests and creation of pastures and fields promoted niche shifts towards open habitats, and species exploited the ecological opportunity provided by these created environments. This process was initially purely ecological, i.e. the new habitats must have been included in the original fundamental niche of the species. Two other features of human‐mediated niche construction, increased interconnectivity and increased spatial stability of open habitats, resulted in species accumulating in the habitats of the constructed landscape. As a consequence, selection processes were initiated favouring traits promoting fitness in the constructed landscape. This process implied a feed‐back to niche shifts, but now also including evolutionary changes in fundamental niches. I briefly discuss whether this model can be applied also to present‐day anthropogenic impact on landscapes. A general conclusion is that ecological and evolutionary changes in species niches should be more explicitly considered in modeling and predictions of species response to present‐day landscape and land‐use changes.     

FPC-ICAD: an intelligent CAD for fermentation process control

The paper presents an Intelligent CAD system for Fermentation Process Control (FPC-ICAD) based on a hierarchical architecture possessing three levels: real-time supervision level, CAD level and learning level. The aims of the learning are mainly composed of the aspects fermentation process modelling, determination of appropriate control and estimation methods, determination of the corresponding parameters and fermentation monitoring through measurement and software management. Three independent, but interactive software packages allow user to organize his system for different purposes: on-line control system (with only supervision), off-line CAD as a teaching software, off-line intelligent CAD (CAD+learning package), and on-line intelligent CAD.     

Testing methods in species distribution modelling using virtual species: what have we learnt and what are we missing?

Species distribution models (SDMs) have become one of the major predictive tools in ecology. However, multiple methodological choices are required during the modelling process, some of which may have a large impact on forecasting results. In this context, virtual species, i.e. the use of simulations involving a fictitious species for which we have perfect knowledge of its occurrence–environment relationships and other relevant characteristics, have become increasingly popular to test SDMs. This approach provides for a simple virtual ecologist framework under which to test model properties, as well as the effects of the different methodological choices, and allows teasing out the effects of targeted factors with great certainty. This simplification is therefore very useful in setting up modelling standards and best practice principles. As a result, numerous virtual species studies have been published over the last decade. The topics covered include differences in performance between statistical models, effects of sample size, choice of threshold values, methods to generate pseudo‐absences for presence‐only data, among many others. These simulations have therefore already made a great contribution to setting best modelling practices in SDMs. Recent software developments have greatly facilitated the simulation of virtual species, with at least three different packages published to that effect. However, the simulation procedure has not been homogeneous, which introduces some subtleties in the interpretation of results, as well as differences across simulation packages. Here we 1) review the main contributions of the virtual species approach in the SDM literature; 2) compare the major virtual species simulation approaches and software packages; and 3) propose a set of recommendations for best simulation practices in future virtual species studies in the context of SDMs.     

长白山主要生态系统地面藓类植物的生态位研究

应用王刚提出的生态位重叠值公式,计测了长白山主要生态系统中41个样点42种主要地面藓类的生态位重叠值。以此为指标,分别应用主坐标排序、图论聚类及系统聚类分析方法,作出了反映42种地面藓类的种间生态关系的二维投影图、最小生成树和动态聚类图。3种方法相结合,能够对生态位重叠值矩阵进行直观地表达,并使所表达的藓类种间关系具有确切的生态学含义。研究表明,按生态位重叠值大小,长白山主要生态系统中地面主要藓类可区分出落叶松-沼泽藓类、高山苔原藓类和暗针叶林-岳华林藓类3大类。42种藓类中,生态位宽度(B)与种数(N)符合公式N=38.1985×e     

Tracing the origin of disjunct distributions: a case of biogeographical convergence in Pyrgus butterflies

Aim To study the biogeographical factors responsible for the current disjunct distributions of two closely related species of butterflies (Pyrgus cinarae and Pyrgus sidae, Lepidoptera: Hesperioidea). Both species have small populations in the Iberian Peninsula that are isolated by more than 1000 km from their nearest conspecifics. Because these species possess similar ecological preferences and geographical distributions, they are excellent candidates for congruent biogeographical histories. Location The Palaearctic region, with a special focus on the Mediterranean peninsulas as glacial refugia. Methods We integrated phylogeography and population genetic analyses with ecological niche modelling. The mitochondrial gene cytochrome c oxidase subunit 1 (COI) and the non‐coding nuclear marker internal transcribed spacer 2 (ITS2) were analysed for 62 specimens of P. cinarae and for 80 of P. sidae to infer phylogeography and to date the origin of disjunct distributions. Current and ancestral [Last Glacial Maximum using MIROC (Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate) and CCSM (Community Climate System Model) circulation models] distribution models were calculated with Maxent . Using present climatic conditions, we delimited the ecological space for each species. Results The genetic structure and potential ancestral distribution of the two species were markedly different. While the Iberian population of P. cinarae had an old origin (c. 1 Ma), that of P. sidae was closely related to French and Italian lineages (which jointly diverged from eastern populations c. 0.27 Ma). Ecological niche modelling showed that minor differences in the ecological preferences of the two species seem to account for their drastically different distributional response to the last glacial to post‐glacial environmental conditions. Although the potential distribution of P. cinarae was largely unaffected by climate change, suitable habitat for P. sidae strongly shifted in both elevation and latitude. This result might explain the early origin of the disjunct distribution of P. cinarae, in contrast to the more recent disjunction of P. sidae. Main conclusions We show that convergent biogeographical patterns can be analysed with a combination of genetic and ecological niche modelling data. The results demonstrate that species with similar distributional patterns and ecology may still have different biogeographical histories, highlighting the importance of including the temporal dimension when studying biogeographical patterns.     

Predicting the past distribution of species climatic niches

Predicting past distributions of species climatic niches, hindcasting, by using climate envelope models (CEMs) is emerging as an exciting research area. CEMs are used to examine veiled evolutionary questions about extinctions, locations of past refugia and migration pathways, or to propose hypotheses concerning the past population structure of species in phylogeographical studies. CEMs are sensitive to theoretical assumptions, to model classes and to projections in non-analogous climates, among other issues. Studies hindcasting the climatic niches of species often make reference to these limitations. However, to obtain strong scientific inferences, we must not only be aware of these potential limitations but we must also overcome them. Here, I review the literature on hindcasting CEMs. I discuss the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling, i.e. the stability of climatic niches through time and the equilibrium of species with climate. I also summarize a set of 'recommended practices' to improve hindcasting. The studies reviewed: (1) rarely test the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling such as the stability of species climatic niches through time and the equilibrium of species with climate; (2) they only use one model class (72% of the studies) and one palaeoclimatic reconstruction (62.5%) to calibrate their models; (3) they do not check for the occurrence of non-analogous climates (97%); and (4) they do not use independent data to validate the models (72%). Ignoring the theoretical assumptions behind niche modelling and using inadequate methods for hindcasting CEMs may well entail a cascade of errors and naïve ecological and evolutionary inferences. We should also push integrative research lines linking macroecology, physiology, population biology, palaeontology, evolutionary biology and CEMs for a better understanding of niche dynamics across space and time.     

Exploring the nature of ecological specialization in a coral reef fish community: morphology,diet and foraging microhabitat use

Patterns of ecological specialization offer invaluable information about ecosystems. Yet, specialization is rarely quantified across several ecological niche axes and variables beyond the link between morphological and dietary specialization have received little attention. Here, we provide a quantitative evaluation of ecological specialization in a coral reef fish assemblage (f. Acanthuridae) along one fundamental and two realized niche axes. Specifically, we examined ecological specialization in 10 surgeonfish species with regards to morphology and two realized niche axes associated with diet and foraging microhabitat utilization using a recently developed multidimensional framework. We then investigated the potential relationships between morphological and behavioural specialization. These relationships differed markedly from the traditional ecomorphological paradigm. While morphological specialization showed no relationship with dietary specialization, it exhibited a strong relationship with foraging microhabitat specialization. However, this relationship was inverted: species with specialized morphologies were microhabitat generalists, whereas generalized morphotypes were microhabitat specialists. Interestingly, this mirrors relationships found in plant–pollinator communities and may also be applicable to other ecosystems, highlighting the potential importance of including niche axes beyond dietary specialization into ecomorphological frameworks. On coral reefs, it appears that morphotypes commonly perceived as most generalized may, in fact, be specialized in exploiting flat and easily accessible microhabitats.     

Modelled spatial distribution of marine fish and projected modifications in the North Atlantic Ocean

The objectives of this work were to examine the past, current and potential influence of global climate change on the spatial distribution of some commercially exploited fish and to evaluate a recently proposed new ecological niche model (ENM) called nonparametric probabilistic ecological niche model (NPPEN). This new technique is based on a modified version of the test called Multiple Response Permutation Procedure (MRPP) using the generalized Mahalanobis distance. The technique was applied in the extratropical regions of the North Atlantic Ocean on eight commercially exploited fish species using three environmental parameters (sea surface temperature, bathymetry and sea surface salinity). The numerical procedure and the model allowed a better characterization of the niche (sensu Hutchinson) and an improved modelling of the spatial distribution of the species. Furthermore, the technique appeared to be robust to incomplete or bimodal training sets. Despite some potential limitations related to the choice of the climatic scenarios (A2 and B2), the type of physical model (ECHAM 4) and the absence of consideration of biotic interactions, modelled changes in species distribution explained some current observed shifts in dominance that occurred in the North Atlantic sector, and particularly in the North Sea. Although projected changes suggest a poleward movement of species, our results indicate that some species may not be able to track their climatic envelope and that climate change may have a prominent influence on fish distribution during this century. The phenomenon is likely to trigger locally major changes in the dominance of species with likely implications for socio‐economical systems. In this way, ENMs might provide a new management tool against which changes in the resource might be better anticipated.