中国橡胶树气候适宜度分布特征研究

选取气温、降水、光照、风速四个气象要素,应用气候适宜度方法对中国橡胶树的气候适宜性进行定量评价.结果表明:中国橡胶树的气候适宜度指数均低于0.8,平均值为0.43,变化趋势普遍在±0.05(10a)-1之间,海南岛的大部分地区为橡胶树气候适宜区,广东,广西和福建南部以及云南南部的部分地区为较适宜区;降水适宜度均值为0....     

基于生态位和模糊数学的冬小麦适宜性评价

为定量评价气象、土壤等要素对作物生长的影响,利用江苏省及周边40个气象站1980—2010年日气象资料,选取影响冬小麦品种生长发育的主要气象(如气温、降水、日照时数等)和土壤(如土壤厚度、有机质和p H值等)生态因子,基于生态位理论和模糊数学的方法,依据冬小麦生长对生态各因子的响应关系建立各生态因子适宜度模型,借助GIS空间插值和空间分析,计算江苏省冬小麦品种的种植适宜度并进行等级划分。结果表明:从单要素看,研究区气温适宜度和日照时数适宜度都由北往南逐渐降低,降水适宜度由南往北逐渐降低;大部分地区土壤厚度和土壤有机质适宜,但大部分地区的p H值适宜度较低;从气候适宜度看,江苏省气候适宜度的范围为0.68—0.81,中北部大部分区域适宜度大于0.73,全省的气候适宜度均适合种植冬小麦,大体上呈现由北往南逐渐减小的变化;从土壤适宜度看,全省中部、南部与西北部大部分区域适宜度大于0.70,适合种植冬小麦。从综合适宜度看,全省大部分地区适宜度为0.50—0.86,适宜于冬小麦生长。综合考虑农业气候资源和土壤资源对江苏省冬小麦品种种植的综合适宜性进行评价,评价结果为充分利用江苏省农业生态资源、指导及科学制定冬小麦品种区域种植规划提供科学依据;按作物品种分生育期多角度的精细化研究方法和建立的各因子的适宜度模型可为今后作物区域适宜性评价提供一种新的思路,对同类研究具有一定的借鉴作用。     

基于云模型的淮北平原麦田喷药(肥)气象适宜度评价

麦田喷药或喷肥气象适宜度评价对农事活动科学实施具有重要意义。安徽省淮北平原影响麦田喷药(肥)活动实施的气象因素主要是降水、气温、风速和土壤湿度条件。依据气象和土壤条件对麦田喷药(肥)活动影响的经验指标,基于云模型理论对影响喷药(肥)活动的气象条件分别建立4个云模型,采用层次分析法(AHP),对4个影响因素的隶属度进行综合,得到影响麦田喷药(肥)的综合气象适宜度,并由云模型理论建立其"适宜、较适宜、较不适宜、不适宜"的4个等级的评价云模型,用于评价喷药(肥)活动的气象适宜度等级。检验表明:评价模型与实际相符,可用于喷药(肥)活动的气象适宜度评价;在降水、风速等气象要素预报的基础上,该模型可以用于喷药(肥)活动气象适宜度的等级预报。     

华北平原冬小麦和夏玉米气候适宜性

作物气候适宜度研究有利于应对气候变化对作物生产的影响,合理开发利用农业气候资源,保障粮食生产安全。本研究运用气候适宜度理论构建作物气候适宜度模型,利用华北平原多站点气象和物候观测数据计算1981—2017年典型作物冬小麦和夏玉米不同生育期气候适宜度,并分析其时空变化特征。结果表明:华北平原冬小麦全生育期光照、温度、降水和综合气候适宜度分别为0.69、0.63、0.50和0.58,生育期内降水资源不足是华北平原冬小麦生长的限制因子,而夏玉米生育期内光照、温度、降水和综合气候适宜度均高于0.60;冬小麦全生育期温度、降水和综合气候适宜度变化趋势不明显,光照适宜度以0.020(10 a~(-1))趋势下降;夏玉米全生育期内仅光照适宜度下降趋势明显,温度、降水和综合气候适宜度变化趋势均不显著;空间上,冬小麦全生育期光照适宜度呈现出自西南向东北升高的空间分布趋势,温度适宜度大致为北低南高,降水和综合气候适宜度自北向南逐渐升高;夏玉米全生育期光照适宜度呈现出自西南向东北升高的分布趋势,温度适宜度大体上自东向西降低,降水适宜度自西北向东南升高,综合气候适宜度呈现出自西向东逐渐升高的"阶梯状"空间分布特征。     

近60年广西北部湾红树林生态区气候变化及其影响因素

利用广西北部湾红树林生态区6个市（县）的国家气象观测站1961-2019年气象资料以及海平面资料,分析近60年来该生态区基本气候要素、极端天气气候事件及海平面的变化趋势及其对红树林的影响,并分析未来气候变化对区域红树植物可能造成的影响。结果表明：北部湾红树林生态区年平均气温、年平均最低气温升高,高温日数增多,低温日数和年降水量变化趋势不明显。最长连续无降水日数多数市（县）变化趋势不明显;年霜冻日数减少;热带气旋影响个数减少但平均强度呈微弱增大趋势;大风日数减少;海平面呈缓慢上升趋势。根据RegCM4区域气候模式预估,未来40年（2021-2060年）,在RCP4.5情景下,相对于参照时段（1986-2005年）,该生态区年平均气温将上升0.9-1.4℃,年平均最高气温和年平均最低气温均升高,高温日数增多、低温日数减少;年降水量将增多1%-2%;最长连续无降水日数增多;霜冻日数减少;预计未来30年,广西沿海的海平面较2019年上升40-160mm。年平均气温和极端气温的升高以及冬季低温日数和霜冻日数的减少将有利于热带红树植物的北扩;夏季高温导致的蒸发加剧及夏秋季最长连续无降水日数增多,可能加剧红树林病虫害。极端灾害性天气气候事件、海平面上升和人为影响等多重作用会对红树林分布格局产生重大影响,导致红树林生态退化风险增大。     

浙江省茶叶生长的气候适宜性

定量评估茶叶生长季气候适宜度特征及其对气候变化的响应具有重要意义.本文基于1971—2010年浙江省逐日气象资料,应用模糊数学方法,结合茶叶气象指标,建立了旬尺度的温度、降水和日照适宜度模型,并应用几何平均法建立了茶叶综合气候适宜度模型.结果表明: 研究期间,浙江省茶叶生长季内气候适宜度较高,均超过0.6;研究区茶叶的温度适宜度最高,降水适宜度次之,日照适宜度略低;茶叶气候适宜度具有明显的时间变化特征,20世纪70年代呈下降趋势,80年代变幅平缓,90年代之后表现为明显的上升趋势;春茶气候适宜度变化趋势与年度气候适宜度相似,均呈两头高、中间低,春茶气候适宜度的变幅更大,夏茶和秋茶气候适宜度均表现为下降趋势.     

长江三角洲地区极端气温事件变化特征及其与ENSO的关系

基于1960—2014年65个气象站点逐日最高、最低气温和平均气温资料,分析了长江三角洲地区极端气温事件的变化规律和ENSO事件强度对极端气温指数变化趋势的影响。结果表明:近55年长江三角洲地区夏季日数(SU)、热夜日数(TR)、暖昼日数(TX90)、暖夜日数(TN90)、异常暖昼持续指数(WSDI)、生长期(GSL)均呈增加趋势,其中暖夜日数(TN90)增加幅度最大,增幅为8.55d/10a;极值指数也呈上升趋势,其中月最低气温极小值(TNn)上升幅度最大为(0.53℃/10a);冰冻日数(ID)、霜冻日数(FD)、冷昼日数(TX10)、冷夜日数(TN10)、异常冷昼持续指数(CSDI)均呈减少趋势,其中冷夜日数(TN10)减少幅度最大(-6.06d/10a);月平均日较差(DTR)以0.11℃/10a的速率呈下降趋势。空间上,所有站点SU、TXn、TNx呈增加趋势;TR、TX90、TN90、TNn、TXx、WSDI、GSL分别有97%、85%、98%、95%、78%、92%、94%的站点呈增加趋势;所有站点ID、FD、TX10、TN10呈减少趋势;CSDI、DTR分别有87%、77%的站点呈减少趋势。多数极端气温指数与纬度、经度、海拔显著相关。气候变暖突变后,极端暖指数明显增加,极端冷指数明显减少。总体上,厄尔尼诺对极端气温指数的影响大于拉尼娜的影响。     

区域种植业气候适宜度及其对种植活动的响应——以四川省盐亭县为例

在分析盐亭县近63年来(1950—2012)种植业生产发展的基础上,选取该县农村社会经济条件相对稳定的近32年(1981—2012)为研究时段。运用农业生态气候适宜度方法,依据水稻、红薯、玉米、小麦和油菜等5种主要作物生育期的光、热、水等气候条件,分别估算各种作物的资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数,构建小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度模型和种植活动对区域种植业气候适宜度的影响度模型,进行小尺度区域种植业气候适宜度以及种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度估算,并对种植业生产对气候变化的适应进行探讨。研究结果表明,(1)近32年来盐亭县大春作物的平均资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数和利用指数(分别为0.578、0.281和48.37%)均大于小春作物(分别为0.304、0.128和42.24%),大春作物的气候适宜度高于小春作物,且作物间的气候适宜度差异较大。(2)受季风气候波动的影响,该县作物气候适宜度有明显的年际波动;该县近32年来气候变化对大春作物气候适宜度有轻微不利影响,而对小春作物气候适宜度趋于有利。(3)盐亭县近32年来种植业平均的资源适宜指数为0.466、效能适宜指数为0.212、利用指数为45.49%;受5种作物资源适宜指数、效能适宜指数,以及作物播种面积与产量年际波动的综合影响,该县种植业气候适宜度亦有明显的年际波动;气候变化对该县种植业气候适宜度总体上有不利影响。(4)近32年来该县种植活动对种植业气候适宜度的影响度平均值为0.00092,其年际波动较大。通过作物种植组合结构的调整,在20世纪90年代中期前对种植业气候适宜度的提高有微弱的正向影响,对气候变化有一定程度的适应;而后期则有负向作用。     

中国亚热带地区柑桔的气候适宜性

应用生态适宜度理论和模糊数学方法,建立柑桔气候适宜度模型,对中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的气候适宜性及其时空差异进行了计算、评价,并分析了中国亚热带地区柑桔各生育期气候适宜性以及中国亚热带地区各县区的平均气候适宜度.结果表明:柑桔花芽分化期、发芽期、果实成熟期的适宜性较低、风险较高,其他各生育期的适宜性较高、风险较低,影响中国亚热带地区柑桔生产的关键问题是冷害和伏旱.柑桔温度适宜性的地域分异呈纬度地带性规律;降水适宜度最适宜型分布在亚热带中部"射阳-那坡"一线区域,其东南为适宜型区,西北为次适宜型区,高山区为不适宜型区;日照适宜度与实际日照时数的区域变化规律基本一致,大致呈高纬度区高于低纬度区、高海拔区高于低海拔区;受温度因子的限制,气候适宜度与温度适宜度的分布情况大体一致,南部大于北部,基本也呈纬度地带性规律.从中国亚热带地区柑桔气候适宜度的年际变化分析可知,整个亚热带地区柑桔气候适宜度呈下降趋势,且存在区域差异,说明气候变化引起了中国亚热带柑桔适宜区和关键生育期的变动.     

秦岭太白红杉林遥感物候提取及对气候变化的响应

高山林线树种对气候变化响应敏感,是研究气候变化和物候变化的理想树种。本文基于双Logistic曲线拟合法重建了2000—2015年MODIS EVI2时间序列影像并提取太白红杉林关键物候参数,结合太白山地区气象站的气候资料,研究太白红杉林遥感物候及其对气候因子的响应。结果表明:2000—2015年太白红杉林生长期开始时间在第120天左右,生长期结束时间在第288天左右,平均生长期长度为168 d; 16 a来太白红杉林生长期始期整体呈提前趋势,变化率为-0.65 d·10 a~(-1);生长期末期整体呈推迟趋势,变化率为0.35 d·10 a~(-1);整个生长期呈延长趋势,平均延长幅度为0.99 d·10 a~(-1);太白红杉林物候始期与同期气温、降水呈负相关的区域分别占研究区的73.11%和61.25%,而与潜在蒸散呈正相关的区域占65.17%;物候末期与同期气温、降水、潜在蒸散、日照和风速均呈正相关,面积比分别为74.91%、72.87%、78.14%、68.60%和64.74%,其中气温是太白红杉林物候始期提前的主要影响因素,气温、降水、潜在蒸散是物候末期推迟的主要影响因素。     

Management,winter climate and plant–soil feedbacks on ski slopes: a synthesis

Owing to the increasing popularity of skiing and the upslope movement of the snow reliability line in mountain regions, more and more alpine environments are being turned into skiing areas, with strong impacts on ecosystem functions and biodiversity. Creation and management of ski slopes cause physical disturbance to soil and vegetation, while (artificial) snow supplements affect soil structure, chemistry, moisture and temperature regimes as well as shifts in snow season and growing season length. Vegetation–soil feedbacks may influence the outcome of these interactive effects on soil and vegetation, with possible consequences for soil erosion. Moreover, climate warming will lead to changing snow cover and duration, which will interact with ski slope management effects on soil and vegetation and its feedbacks. Based on a conceptual framework we review the main elements of these interactive effects on soil and vegetation on new and established ski slopes. We also set a research agenda with specific studies that could further advance our understanding of interacting ski slope management, winter climate, vegetation–soil feedbacks and ecosystem functioning. In such new investigations, alpine climate change ecology can probably learn much from the “experimental” disturbance and snow manipulations on ski slopes and vice versa.     

Positive sport–biosphere interactions? — Cross-country skiing delays spring phenology of meadow vegetation

Space requirements by winter sports and accelerating global warming are usually perceived as stressors for mountain meadow plant communities. Cross-country ski track preparation (i.e. grooming), however, might retard effects of climate change and, being limited in space requirements, might increase abiotic heterogeneity. The effect of cross-country ski tracks on meadow vegetation was quantified along a representative ski track that had been operated for 30 years in the Fichtelgebirge, a low mountain range in central Europe. Paired sampling was implemented to assess the effect of skiing operations on snow and soil properties, plant phenology, biomass production and species composition. Additionally, boosted regression tree analyses were used to quantify the relative importance of the cross-country ski track compared to other environmental conditions.The cross-country ski track strongly increased snow density, enhanced soil frost, and retarded snowmelt, thereby delaying flower phenology (by 2.1 days) and the early development stages of plant species on the track. However, biomass, species richness and species composition were unaffected by skiing operations except for one species (Leontodon autumnalis) showing exclusive occurrence on the track while four others showed reduced relative occurrence on the track.While snow and soil properties were influenced by cross-country ski track preparation, natural environmental variability was more influential for species composition and biomass production than the ski track. We therefore conclude that the ski track – without artificial snow – did not negatively affect species composition. By delaying flower phenology, effects of the ski track even counteracted global warming to some degree. Due to their small spatial extent in the landscape, these ski tracks may add to environmental heterogeneity and thus support sustaining diverse species compositions during environmental changes.     

Demographic responses of eastern bluebirds to climatic variability in northeastern Arkansas

As climate change continues to alter temperature and precipitation patterns, numerous species have declined. However, populations of some species that show responses to climate change, such as eastern bluebirds (Sialia sialis), have increased or remained stable nationwide. To understand how species are adapting to climate change, we estimated demographic parameters and their responses to climatic variability, using nesting and banding-recapture data between 2003 and 2018 in a northeastern Arkansas eastern bluebird population. Increasing variability in precipitation in the nonbreeding season negatively affected hatchability. Hatching success was negatively affected by increasing variability in maximum temperatures and the number of hot days during the breeding season, but positively affected by increasing winter snow depth. Adult survival was positively affected by increasing snow depth and variability in the number of hot days during the breeding season, but negatively affected by increasing variability in nonbreeding season temperatures. Our results demonstrate that for this study population, annual breeding parameters, though canalized against interannual environmental variation, were affected by seasonal climatic variability. Although climate change may benefit bluebird survival due to increasing variability in winter temperatures and the number of hot days, climatic variability negatively affected breeding parameters and is expected to increase. Because breeding parameters are typically the drivers of population growth rate in short-lived species, these results raise concern for the future of this population of eastern bluebirds.     

中国欧亚种酿酒葡萄种植分布的主要气候影响因子与气候适宜性

开展酿酒葡萄气候适宜性研究对于优化酿酒葡萄布局、气候资源开发利用具有重要意义。基于欧亚种酿酒葡萄(Vitis vinifera L.)分布数据和影响其分布的气候因子,利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)和地理信息系统(ArcGIS),研究影响欧亚种酿酒葡萄种植分布的主导气候因子及其气候适宜性。结果表明:MaxEnt模型能够很好地模拟我国欧亚种酿酒葡萄的潜在分布,模拟效果达到"非常好"(AUC平均值0.936)的水平。基于气候因子对欧亚种酿酒葡萄地理分布影响的贡献确定了主导气候因子,即无霜期、干燥度、极端最低气温、年降水量、生长季日照时数、≥10℃活动积温。当前,我国欧亚种酿酒葡萄种植分布的气候高适宜区、适宜区、次适宜区分别占次适宜及以上区域总面积的2.9%、20.4%和76.7%。欧亚种酿酒葡萄气候高适宜区主要分布在宁夏、山西、陕西、内蒙古、山东、河北、新疆、甘肃等省,只考虑气候因子,陕西、山西、内蒙古具有较大的发展空间。     

长白山阔叶红松林近22年的气候动态

长白山阔叶红松林作为典型的温带森林生态系统。其长期的气候动态状况对研究全球变化具有重要的意义。本文采用中国科学院长白山森林生态系统定位站气象观测场1982～2003年的地面常规气象观测资料,对长白山阔叶红松林的光能因子（包括年日照时数、年日照百分率）、热量因子（包括年平均气温、1月、7月月平均气温、年极端最高、最低气温、年积温）、水分因子（包括年总降水量、年最大雪深、相对湿度、年总蒸发量）、以及年平均风速与风向等气候因子进行了分析,从而得出这些因子22年的平均值及其动态变化趋势,进而为相关领域的研究提供基础资料。     

长白山高山苔原雪斑大白花地榆群落土壤氮素动态与生产力的关系

在高山苔原冬季积雪覆盖的群落生长季短, 但明显比周围群落生长茂盛。为了说明雪斑地段群落生长机理, 对长白山苔原雪斑土壤氮素动态以及大白花地榆(Sanguisorba sitchensis)群落生产力进行了连续测定。雪斑群落土壤冬季相对温暖, 最低日平均温度-1.4 ℃, 裸露地段-16.9 ℃, 全年水分条件充足; 积雪期凋落物分解和氮矿化均在进行, 土壤具有很高的氮素含量及矿化速率。大白花地榆地上部分净初级生产力为4 046 kg·hm^-2·a^-1。正是独特的水热条件和养分条件, 以及具有很大的叶面积同化器官, 高山苔原雪斑地段的大白花地榆群落才得以维持生存并表现出很高的生产力水平。     

Climatic potential for tourism in the Black Forest,Germany — winter season

Climate change, whether natural or human-caused, will have an impact on human life, including recreation and tourism among other things. In this study, methods from biometeorology and tourism climatology are used to assess the effect of a changed climate on tourism and recreation in particular. The study area is the Black Forest mountainous region of south-west Germany, which is well known for its tourist and recreational assets. Climate model projections for the 2021–2050 period based on REMO-UBA simulations with a high spatial resolution of 10 km are compared to a 30-year reference period (1971–2000) using the IPCC emission scenarios A1B and B1. The results show that the mean winter air temperature will increase by up to 1.8°C, which is the most pronounced warming compared to the other seasons. The annual precipitation amount will increase marginally by 5% in the A1B scenario and 10% in the B1 scenario. Winter precipitation contributes about 10% (A1B) and 30% (B1) to variations in annual precipitation. Although the results show that winter precipitation will increase slightly, snow days affecting skiing will be reduced on average by approximately 40% due to regional warming. Cold stress will be reduced on average by up to 25%. The result is that the thermal environment will be advanced, and warmer winters are likely to lead to an upward altitudinal shift of ski resorts and winter sport activities, thus displacing land-use currently dedicated to nature conservation.     

Deepened winter snow cover enhances net ecosystem exchange and stabilizes plant community composition and productivity in a temperate grassland

Global warming has greatly altered winter snowfall patterns, and there is a trend towards increasing winter snow in semi‐arid regions in China. Winter snowfall is an important source of water during early spring in these water‐limited ecosystems, and it can also affect nutrient supply. However, we know little about how changes in winter snowfall will affect ecosystem productivity and plant community structure during the growing season. Here, we conducted a 5‐year winter snow manipulation experiment in a temperate grassland in Inner Mongolia. We measured ecosystem carbon flux from 2014 to 2018 and plant biomass and species composition from 2015 to 2018. We found that soil moisture increased under deepened winter snow in early growing season, particularly in deeper soil layers. Deepened snow increased the net ecosystem exchange of CO₂ (NEE) and reduced intra‐ and inter‐annual variation in NEE. Deepened snow did not affect aboveground plant biomass (AGB) but significantly increased root biomass. This suggested that the enhanced NEE was allocated to the belowground, which improved water acquisition and thus contributed to greater stability in NEE in deep‐snow plots. Interestingly, the AGB of grasses in the control plots declined over time, resulting in a shift towards a forb‐dominated system. Similar declines in grass AGB were also observed at three other locations in the region over the same time frame and are attributed to 4 years of below‐average precipitation during the growing season. By contrast, grass AGB was stabilized under deepened winter snow and plant community composition remained unchanged. Hence, our study demonstrates that increased winter snowfall may stabilize arid grassland systems by reducing resource competition, promoting coexistence between plant functional groups, which ultimately mitigates the impacts of chronic drought during the growing season.     

Gray wolves as climate change buffers in Yellowstone

Understanding the mechanisms by which climate and predation patterns by top predators co-vary to affect community structure accrues added importance as humans exert growing influence over both climate and regional predator assemblages. In Yellowstone National Park, winter conditions and reintroduced gray wolves (Canis lupus) together determine the availability of winter carrion on which numerous scavenger species depend for survival and reproduction. As climate changes in Yellowstone, therefore, scavenger species may experience a dramatic reshuffling of food resources. As such, we analyzed 55 y of weather data from Yellowstone in order to determine trends in winter conditions. We found that winters are getting shorter, as measured by the number of days with snow on the ground, due to decreased snowfall and increased number of days with temperatures above freezing. To investigate synergistic effects of human and climatic alterations of species interactions, we used an empirically derived model to show that in the absence of wolves, early snow thaw leads to a substantial reduction in late-winter carrion, causing potential food bottlenecks for scavengers. In addition, by narrowing the window of time over which carrion is available and thereby creating a resource pulse, climate change likely favors scavengers that can quickly track food sources over great distances. Wolves, however, largely mitigate late-winter reduction in carrion due to earlier snow thaws. By buffering the effects of climate change on carrion availability, wolves allow scavengers to adapt to a changing environment over a longer time scale more commensurate with natural processes. This study illustrates the importance of restoring and maintaining intact food chains in the face of large-scale environmental perturbations such as climate change.     

长白山原始林红松径向生长及林分碳汇潜力

长白山地处温带针阔混交林的中心地带,其植物生长对气候变化反映较为敏感。运用树木年代学的基本原理与方法,以该区保存完好的地带性顶级群落阔叶红松林为研究对象,探讨了红松(Pinus koraiensis)径向生长对气候变化的响应,以期揭示全球气候变化对阔叶红松林及红松树木生长的影响。以长白山自然保护区北坡为研究地点,建立红松树轮年表,计算年均生物量生长量,与逐月各气候因子进行相关和响应函数分析,以期揭示红松径向生长与气候变化的关系。同时利用多元逐步回归分析方法分别建立了红松树轮指数、年均生物量生长量与主要气候因子的模拟回归方程。主要结论如下:(1)长白山红松年表特征分析表明其生长对气候变化敏感,适用于进行树轮气候学分析;(2)红松径向生长受当年生长季前期温度影响较大;(3)温度是限制红松径向生长的主要因子,气候变暖将促进红松的径向生长;(4)目前林分单位面积地上生物量为310.88t/hm~2,单位面积林分生物量生长量约为5.077t hm~(-2)a~(-1),即每公顷每年固碳约2.539t,表明该地区老龄阔叶红松林仍具有较强的固碳能力。