基于地理模型与优化的城市扩张与生态保护二元空间协调优化

协调城市扩张与生态敏感区保护之间的矛盾是当前我国新型城镇化建设中的一项重要任务,但基于传统供需平衡模式或历史惯性驱动模拟的城市规划布局可能导致一系列潜在的生态环境问题。根据城市发展具有历史惯性驱动和空间规划引导的双重特性,提出将地理模拟与优化(Geographical Simulation and Optimization Systems,简写为GeoSOS)等复杂GIS空间分析技术引入规划决策分析。通过利用最小累积阻力模型获取生态敏感区保护压力格局,并利用元胞自动机模型进行城市扩张模拟,分析城市惯性扩张模式对生态敏感区的潜在影响;然后根据生态敏感区保护和城市空间扩张的协调性发展目标进行生态适宜性评价,进而利用蚁群智能空间优化配置模型产生一种优化的城市空间布局方案。研究以我国珠江三角洲地区的广州市为案例,详细分析了基于GeoSOS的城市扩张与生态保护的协调决策过程。结果表明,整合了城市发展惯性与生态敏感区保护双重目标的空间优化布局方案,比单纯基于地理模拟进行规划布局更符合生态型城市建设需求,研究所提出的城市与生态二元空间协调分析框架可为城市规划提供可靠的定量决策支撑。     

“建立血糖调节模型”的教学设计与组织策略

在高中生物教学中,血糖平衡的调节一直是重要的教学内容。以往的教学设计思路主要是依靠教师讲述,学生被动接受,因此学生在学习上缺乏主动性。且由于内容比较抽象,学生很难真正理解。教师如何依据现代教育理论,通过组织和引导学生模拟血糖的调节机制,建构和不断修正动态的物理模型,再建构抽象的血糖调节的图解式概念模型,从而使学生深入理解血糖调节的机制,更好地理解体内激素对生命活动进行的调节,不仅是突破教学难点有效途径,对学生建立科学思维方式也具有重要的意义。结合课堂教学实际,介绍“建立血糖调节模型”的教学设计和“概念模型”的教学组织策略两个方面研究成果。     

面向可持续城市生态系统管理的国土空间开发适宜性评价——以烟台市为例

国土空间开发适宜性评价是国土空间规划编制的基础和前提。面向可持续城市生态系统管理目标,基于生态保护红线和永久基本农田的"底线"思维,以资源环境禀赋为基础,构建了本底约束—综合限制—承载力评价-多空间适宜评价的资源环境承载力和国土空间开发适宜性评价的逻辑框架和指标体系,并以烟台为例,设置城市生态系统保护的不同情景,综合运用特尔斐法及多要素空间叠置等方法,开展了城市资源环境承载力与国土空间开发适宜性评价的实践应用。研究结果表明:①资源环境对烟台经济社会发展的阻碍与限制总体较小,高限制区面积仅占烟台国土面积的6.09%。②烟台市不同区县之间的资源环境承载力差异较大。从西北部向东南,烟台市资源环境承载力呈现出逐渐提高的变化趋势。③面向可持续城市生态系统管理情景,烟台市各县市国土空间开发建设适宜性差异显著,适宜建设区范围为2380 km²。面向城市生态系统一般保护情景,烟台市适宜建设区面积达2610 km²,不适宜建设开发区与适宜建设开发区数量结构为1.12∶1,未来国土空间开发利用潜力较大。两种情景下烟台市国土空间开发适宜性适宜建设区面积均大于现状建...     

试验条件下岩原鲤幼鱼栖息地适宜性模型及最小栖息面积估算

在室内微生境模拟条件下,应用试验生态学方法,分别评估了岩原鲤幼鱼对底质、光照、水深3种生境因子的适宜性指数(HSI),建立了其栖息地适宜性模型,并初步估算了岩原鲤幼鱼的最小栖息面积.结果表明:岩原鲤幼鱼对底质、光照、水深3种生境因子的适宜栖息范围分别为砾石直径10～15 cm、光照强度0.2～1.8 lx、水深范围0～15 cm(离底距离);其适宜性指数表达式分别为SIS=1.7338e-0.997x(R2=0.89,P＜0.01,SIS为底质适宜性指数,x为砾石直径)、SIL=3.0121e-1.339x(R2=0.93,P＜0.01,SIL为光照适宜性指数,x为光强)、SIW=2.4055 e-1.245x(R2＝0.97,P＜0.01,SIW为水深适宜性指数,x为水深).算术平均法最适用于岩原鲤幼鱼的栖息地适宜性模型估计,最适模型为HSI=(SIS+SIL+SIW)/3.共发现7组岩原鲤幼鱼建立并维持着相对稳定的栖息地范围,其栖息地面积范围为628～2015 cm2,平均值为1114 cm2.     

基于MaxEnt模型的秦岭山地斑羚生境适宜性评价

生境适宜性评价对野生动物的保护与管理具有重要意义。为了解陕西秦岭地区斑羚(Naemorhedus griseus)的生境状况,利用2011—2013年间在秦岭地区采集的斑羚分布点数据,通过MaxEnt模型对陕西秦岭地区的斑羚生境进行适宜性评价。结果表明,陕西秦岭地区的斑羚适宜生境面积约为9800 km~2,占秦岭山地面积的17%,主要位于秦岭中西部区域;次适宜生境面积约为6940 km~2,占秦岭面积的12%,主要位于适宜生境的周边区域。海拔、月均昼夜温差和年降雨量是影响陕西秦岭地区斑羚生境适宜性的主要环境变量,而人类干扰对生境适宜性的影响较小。陕西秦岭地区的斑羚偏好于选择1800—3000 m的中高海拔区间、年降水量为750—850 mm、月均昼夜温差8℃左右的环境。明确了斑羚适宜生境在秦岭的分布状况及关键环境影响因子,可为下一步制定濒危动物保护和生境管理提供理论依据。     

光响应曲线的指数改进模型与常用模型比较

光响应曲线的参数是研究植物生理状态的重要指标, 常用的光响应曲线模型无法准确地计算出光饱和点和最大净光合速率。该文利用光响应曲线新模型——指数改进模型、直角双曲线模型、直角双曲线修正模型、非直角双曲线模型和指数模型, 拟合高粱(Sorghum bicolor)、苋(Amaranthus tricolor)、大麦(Hordeum vulgare)和半夏(Pinellia ternata)的光响应曲线, 并随机选取部分数据进行检验, 得到了各模型计算出的主要生理参数, 并对这些数据进行了比较分析, 讨论了各模型之间的优缺点和准确性, 描述了C₃、C₄植物光响应的适宜性。结果表明, 基于C₃植物得到的指数改进模型和直角双曲线修正模型能较准确地计算出C₃、C₄植物饱和光强和最大净光合速率, 并在描述光响应曲线时比另外3个模型具有更高的精确性和适宜性。实验结果可为光响应曲线模型在C₃和C₄光合途径植物中的应用提供参考。     

黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区马鹿种群分布数量及生境适宜性评价

开展野生动物种群分布数量和生境适宜性评价研究是制定物种科学保护决策的基础和关键。以东北马鹿(Cervus canadensis xanthopygus)为研究对象,于2015—2020年在黑龙江省老爷岭南部穆棱林区,采用大样方调查方法收集马鹿在雪地留下的足迹信息分析马鹿种群数量;通过相机监测、足迹链跟踪和大样方调查3种方法综合收集马鹿活动点信息,利用最大熵(MaxEnt)建模分析马鹿生境适宜性。马鹿种群分布数量研究结果表明,穆棱林区马鹿种群密度为(0.0645±0.009)只/km~2,种群数量为47—61只,主要分布在研究地区南部的和平、龙爪沟和共和林场。生境分析结果表明：人为干扰因子中,居民区对MaxEnt模型的贡献率为44%,马鹿主要在距居民区距离约5 km和10—15 km的区域活动,在偏僻的林间小道和乡村道路马鹿生境适宜性较高,其对模型贡献率分别为16.8%和10.2%;植被因子中,在距常绿针叶林和针阔混交林距离4 km范围内,随距离增加马鹿生境适宜性逐渐降低。生境适宜性分析结果表明,研究地区马鹿适宜生境和次适宜生境面积为87.09 km~2,仅占研究区域的10.39%,主要...     

阿尔金山自然保护区土地利用/覆被变化对藏野驴栖息地的影响

阿尔金山国家级自然保护区是青藏高原的特有种藏野驴的主要保护区之一。分析土地利用/覆被变化(LUCC)对藏野驴潜在栖息地的影响是维持藏野驴在未来生存与发展的直接途径。本文以生态位理论为指导,综合应用GIS技术,构建基于GIS的生态位模型,结合层次分析法(AHP)与转移矩阵分析方法,分析自保护区1985年(建立)至2000年间LUCC对藏野驴不同适宜性栖息地的影响。结果表明:高适宜性栖息地与中适宜性栖息地变化不明显,高适宜性栖息地主要位于卡尔墩检查站周围区域、保护区东北部沿着阿尔金山的高适宜性廊道,中适宜性栖息地位于高适宜性栖息地周围,二者面积均略有增加;高适宜性栖息地面积增加的主要来源为中适宜性栖息地,而中适宜性栖息地面积增加的主要来源为低适宜性栖息地与不适宜区域;低适宜性栖息地面积减小剧烈,其面积减少的去向主要是不适宜区域,不适宜性区域面积不断扩大;藏野驴不同适宜性栖息地的总体变化趋势是栖息地格局向两端集中,即向高适宜性栖息地与不适宜区域转化。     

基于模糊物元模型的桃儿七潜在地理分布研究

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum(Royle)Ying)为小檗科多年生草本植物,是我国传统濒危藏药。依据模糊物元模型建立桃儿七分布点位以及其产量数据与12个气候环境因子之间的模糊隶属函数,采用最大信息熵模型确定评价指标权重,利用GIS空间分析功能确定我国西部7省桃儿七生境适宜性空间分布。研究表明研究区桃儿七不适宜生境面积占研究区总面积的61.76%;低适宜生境占20.11%;中适宜生境占7.70%;高适宜生境占10.43%,主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区。结果显示基于GIS与模糊物元构建的生境适宜性评价模型可以准确的对我国西部7省桃儿七生境适宜性做出科学综合评价,量化适宜生境面积和空间分布,为其资源保护和管理提供科学依据。     

城市绿色开敞空间可达性研究——以南京市中心城区为例

城市绿色开敞空间是城市公共空间的重要组成部分,合理配置城市绿色开敞空间对城市宜居环境建设至关重要。空间可达性常用于评价公共服务设施空间布局的合理性,两步移动搜索法即是一种直观、运算简便、应用广泛的可达性计算方法,但该方法未考虑需求主体之间的差异性。本研究以南京市中心城区为例,利用手机信令数据提取需求者属性特征以及空间分布,通过分类细化需求主体改进搜索策略,改善两步移动搜索法传统研究未考虑不同群体差异性、统计数据滞后、空间尺度粗等弊端。结果表明,南京市中心城区绿色开敞空间可达性呈现出明显的空间分异特征,江南主城可达性总体比江北新区高,低值区集中在人口密度高、绿色开敞空间资源规模小的中心城区周边;不同人群的绿色开敞空间可达性总体格局相似,但在数值上老年人可达性均值是其他年龄段的14.60%,工作人群可达性均值是居住人群的86.02%,老年人作为弱势群体在享受绿色开敞空间服务中被边缘化。研究结果可为优化南京市绿色开敞空间布局提供科学依据,也可为其他公共服务设施可达性评价提供借鉴。     

流域水碳过程耦合模拟——WaSSI-C模型的率定与检验

在复杂的气候变化条件下, 利用水碳耦合模型进行生态水文学研究成为主要的研究手段和途径。该文以杂谷脑河上游流域为例, 在确定生态水文模型WaSSI-C模拟尺度的基础上, 探讨水碳耦合模型在中国西南湿润地区的适用性。杂古脑河上游流域位于岷江上游, 隶属于长江流域。在分析和讨论了模型结构和机理的基础上, 分别对模型蒸散和融雪计算进行了补充改进, 以提高模型的适用性。将1988-1996年作为模型的率定期, 1997-2006年作为模型的验证期, 分别在率定期和验证期利用实测的径流数据和中分辨率成像光谱仪数据的总初级生产力、蒸散(ET)数据, 对模拟结果进行对比验证。并利用决定系数(R²)和Nash-Sutcliffe效率系数(NS)两个指标对模拟效果进行评价。流域总径流率定期和验证期对比验证的R²分别为0.86和0.78; NS分别为0.82和0.67。总生态系统生产力和ET验证期的R²分别为0.89和0.78。可见模型模拟结果的两个评价指标都处于较为理想的区间内, 说明WaSSI-C模型在研究区内具有较好的适用性。并对模型的蒸散计算方法进行了讨论, 在此基础上提出了模型中存在的问题和改进的方向。     

生理房室药动学模型

生理药动学模型较ｎ房室模型能更准确地描述药物在体内的处置过程,但在实际应用中由于其计算结果有较大的误差而限制其应用和推广．在生理模型中,某一组织器官中血液分布容积相对于单位时间的血流量来说,如果太大,就去给计算结果带来较大的误差．本文提出的生理房室模型可以减小这种误差,从而更准确地模拟药物在体内的处置过程．文中对一组模拟的生理和生化参数分别求出了生理房室模型和生理模型的数值解．通过两组解的比较,说明生理房室模型可以描述药物在体内处置过程中的细微变化．     

Maintenance requirements: energy supply from simultaneous endogenous respiration and substrate consumption

Abstract A model is presented that describes energy for maintenance purposes (ATP) as being obtained simultaneously from biomass degradation as well as from substrate degradation in excess of growth requirements. The ratio between both catabolic processes was taken to be growth rate dependent. As such, this approach is intermediate between established models; its significant features are negative growth and the absence of substrate consumption at zero substrate concentration, and the attainability of the maximum specific growth rate (the model parameter μ _max) at elevated substrate concentrations. As a simple case, the amounts of ATP obtained from direct substrate catabolism or from the degradation of an equivalent amount of biomass were taken as identical. Also, the maintenance demand in terms of ATP per unit time and biomass was taken to be constant. True growth rate dependency of maintenance can be implemented by relaxing either of these assumptions.     

An EMG-driven model applied for predicting metabolic energy consumption during movement

The relationship between mechanical work and metabolic energy cost during movement is not yet clear. Many studies demonstrated the utility of forward-dynamic musculoskeletal models combined with experimental data to address such question. The aim of this study was to evaluate the applicability of a muscle energy expenditure model at whole body level, using an EMG-driven approach.Four participants performed a 5-min squat exercise on unilateral leg press at two different frequencies and two load levels. Data collected were kinematics, EMG, forces and moments under the foot and gas-exchange data. This same task was simulated using a musculoskeletal model, which took EMG and kinematics as inputs and gave muscle forces and muscle energetics as outputs. Model parameters were taken from literature, but maximal isometric muscle force was optimized in order to match predicted joint moments with measured ones. Energy rates predicted by the model were compared with energy consumption measured by the gas-exchange data.Model results on metabolic energy consumption were close to the values obtained through indirect calorimetry. At the higher frequency level, the model underestimated measured energy consumption. This underestimation can be explained with an increase in energy consumption of the non-muscular mass with movement velocity.In conclusion, results obtained in comparing model predictions with experimental data were promising. More research is needed to evaluate this way of computing mechanical and metabolic work.     

Numerical model (switchable/dual model) of the human head for rigid body and finite elements applications

In this paper, a methodology for the development and validation of a numerical model of the human head using generic procedures is presented. All steps required, starting with the model generation, model validation and applications will be discussed. The proposed model may be considered as a dual one due to its capabilities to switch from deformable to a rigid body according to the application's requirements. The first step is to generate the numerical model of the human head using geometry files or medical images. The required stiffness and damping for the elastic connection used for the rigid body model are identified by performing a natural frequency analysis. The presented applications for model validation are related to impact analysis. The first case is related to Nahum's (Nahum and Smith 1970) experiments pressure data being evaluated and a pressure map generated using the results from discrete elements. For the second case, the relative displacement between the brain and the skull is evaluated according to Hardy's (Hardy WH, Foster CD, Mason, MJ, Yang KH, King A, Tashman S. 2001.Investigation of head injury mechanisms using neutral density technology and high-speed biplanar X-ray. Stapp Car Crash J. 45:337–368, SAE Paper 2001-22-0016) experiments. The main objective is to validate the rigid model as a quick and versatile tool for acquiring the input data for specific brain analyses.     

物种分布模型在海洋潜在生境预测的应用研究进展

海洋生物的栖息分布与环境要素的关联性一直是海洋生态学研究的热点之一.近年来,物种分布模型被广泛应用于预测海洋物种分布、潜在适宜性生境评价等研究,为保护海洋生物多样性、防治外来物种入侵及制定渔业管理措施等提供了一条有效途径.物种分布模型主要包括生境适宜性指数模型、机理模型和统计模型.本文对物种分布模型的理论基础进行了归纳和总结,回顾了物种分布模型在预测海洋物种潜在地理分布研究中的开发与应用,重点介绍了不同类型统计模型在海洋物种潜在分布预测中的研究实例.比较各种选取变量和模型验证方法,认为赤池信息准则对于选取模型变量具有优势,Kappa系数和受试者操作特征曲线下面积在验证模型精度中应用最广泛.阐述了物种分布模型存在的问题及未来发展趋势,随着海洋生物生理机制研究的进一步深入,机理模型将是今后物种分布模型发展的重点.     

On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with complex dynamics

We present a mechanistic underpinning for various discrete-time population models that can produce limit cycles and chaotic dynamics. Specific examples include the discrete-time logistic model and the Hassell model, which for a long time eluded convincing mechanistic interpretations, and also the Ricker- and Beverton-Holt models. We first formulate a continuous-time resource consumption model for the dynamics within a year, and from that we derive a discrete-time model for the between-year dynamics. Without influx of resources from the outside into the system, the resulting between-year dynamics is always overcompensating and hence may produce complex dynamics as well as extinction in finite time. We recover a connection between various standard types of continuous-time models for the resource dynamics within a year on the one hand and various standard types of discrete-time models for the population dynamics between years on the other. The model readily generalizes to several resource and consumer species as well as to more than two trophic levels for the within-year dynamics.     

Conventional and newly developed bioheat transport models in vascularized tissues: A review

Heat transfer in a biological system is a complex process and its analysis is difficult. Heterogeneous vascular architecture, blood flow in the complex network of arteries and veins, varying metabolic heat generation rates and dependence of tissue properties on its physiological condition contribute to this complexity. The understanding of heat transfer in human body is important for better insight of thermoregulatory mechanism and physiological conditions. Its understanding is also important for accurate prediction of thermal transport and temperature distribution during biomedical applications. During the last three decades, many attempts have been made by researchers to model the complex thermal behavior of the human body. These models, viz., blood perfusion, countercurrent, thermal phase-lag, porous-media, perturbation, radiation, etc. have their corresponding strengths and limitations. Along with their biomedical applications, this article reviews various contextual issues associated with these models. After brief discussion of early bioheat models, the newly developed bioheat models are discussed in detail. Dependence of these models on biological properties, viz., thermophysical and optical properties are also discussed.     

On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with Allee effect

The Allee effect means reduction in individual fitness at low population densities. There are many discrete-time population models with an Allee effect in the literature, but most of them are phenomenological. Recently, Geritz and Kisdi [2004. On the mechanistic underpinning of discrete-time population models with complex dynamics. J. Theor. Biol. 228, 261-269] presented a mechanistic underpinning of various discrete-time population models without an Allee effect. Their work was based on a continuous-time resource-consumer model for the dynamics within a year, from which they derived a discrete-time model for the between-year dynamics. In this article, we obtain the Allee effect by adding different mate finding mechanisms to the within-year dynamics. Further, by adding cannibalism we obtain a higher variety of models. We thus present a generator of relatively realistic, discrete-time Allee effect models that also covers some currently used phenomenological models driven more by mathematical convenience.     

Computational framework to model and design surgical meshes for hernia repair

Surgical procedures for hernia surgery are usually performed using prosthetic meshes. In spite of all the improvements in these biomaterials, the perfect match between the prosthesis and the implant site has not been achieved. Thus, new designs of surgical meshes are still being developed. Previous to implantation in humans, the validity of the meshes has to be addressed, and to date experimental studies have been the gold standard in testing and validating new implants. Nevertheless, these procedures involve long periods of time and are expensive. Thus, a computational framework for the simulation of prosthesis and surgical procedures may overcome some disadvantages of the experimental methods. The computational framework includes two computational models for designing and validating the behaviour of new meshes, respectively. Firstly, the beam model, which reproduces the exact geometry of the mesh, is set to design the weave and determine the stiffness of the surgical prosthesis. However, this implies a high computational cost whereas the membrane model, defined within the framework of the large deformation hyperelasticity, is a relatively inexpensive computational tool, which also enables a prosthesis to be included in more complex geometries such as human or animal bodies.