Genetic impact of a severe El Niño event on Galápagos marine iguanas (Amblyrhynchus cristatus)

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of climatic disturbance, impacting the dynamics of ecosystems worldwide. Recent models predict that human-generated rises in green-house gas levels will cause an increase in the strength and frequency of El Niño warming events in the next several decades, highlighting the need to understand the potential biological consequences of increased ENSO activity. Studies have focused on the ecological and demographic implications of El Niño in a range of organisms, but there have been few systematic attempts to measure the impact of these processes on genetic diversity in populations. Here, we evaluate whether the 1997–1998 El Niño altered the genetic composition of Galápagos marine iguana populations from eleven islands, some of which experienced mortality rates of up to 90% as a result of El Niño warming. Specifically, we measured the temporal variation in microsatellite allele frequencies and mitochondrial DNA diversity (mtDNA) in samples collected before (1991/1993) and after (2004) the El Niño event. Based on microsatellite data, only one island (Marchena) showed signatures of a genetic bottleneck, where the harmonic mean of the effective population size (N_e) was estimated to be less than 50 individuals during the period between samplings. Substantial decreases in mtDNA variation between time points were observed in populations from just two islands (Marchena and Genovesa). Our results suggests that, for the majority of islands, a single, intense El Niño event did not reduce marine iguana populations to the point where substantial neutral genetic diversity was lost. In the case of Marchena, simultaneous changes to both nuclear and mitochondrial DNA variation may also be the result of a volcanic eruption on the island in 1991. Therefore, studies that seek to evaluate the genetic impact of El Niño must also consider the confounding or potentially synergistic effect of other environmental and biological forces shaping populations.     

The effect of climate fluctuation on chimpanzee birth sex ratio

Climate and weather conditions, such as the North Atlantic Oscillation, precipitation and temperature influence the birth sex ratio (BSR) of various higher latitude species, including deer, elephant seals or northern human populations. Although, tropical regions show only little variation in temperature, climate and weather conditions can fluctuate with consequences for phenology and food resource availability. Here, we evaluate, whether the BSR of chimpanzees, inhabiting African tropical forests, is affected by climate fluctuations as well. Additionally, we evaluate, if variation in consumption of a key food resource with high nutritional value, Coula edulis nuts, is linked to both climate fluctuations and variation in BSR. We use long-term data from two study groups located in Taï National Park, Côte d''Ivoire to assess the influence of local weather conditions and the global climate driver El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on offspring sex. Côte d''Ivoire has experienced considerable climate variation over the last decades, with increasing temperature and declining precipitation. For both groups we find very similar time windows around the month of conception, in which offspring sex is well predicted by ENSO, with more males following low ENSO values, corresponding to periods of high rainfall. Furthermore, we find that the time spent cracking and feeding on Coula nuts is strongly influenced by climate conditions. Although, some of our analysis suggest that a higher proportion of males is born after periods with higher nut consumption frequency, we cannot conclude decisively at this point that nut consumption may influence shifts in BSR. All results combined suggest that also chimpanzees may experience climate related shifts in offspring sex ratios as response to climate fluctuation.     

Climate change impact on neotropical social wasps

Establishing a direct link between climate change and fluctuations in animal populations through long-term monitoring is difficult given the paucity of baseline data. We hypothesized that social wasps are sensitive to climatic variations, and thus studied the impact of ENSO events on social wasp populations in French Guiana. We noted that during the 2000 La Niña year there was a 77.1% decrease in their nest abundance along ca. 5 km of forest edges, and that 70.5% of the species were no longer present. Two simultaneous 13-year surveys (1997–2009) confirmed the decrease in social wasps during La Niña years (2000 and 2006), while an increase occurred during the 2009 El Niño year. A 30-year weather survey showed that these phenomena corresponded to particularly high levels of rainfall, and that temperature, humidity and global solar radiation were correlated with rainfall. Using the Self-Organizing Map algorithm, we show that heavy rainfall during an entire rainy season has a negative impact on social wasps. Strong contrasts in rainfall between the dry season and the short rainy season exacerbate this effect. Social wasp populations never recovered to their pre-2000 levels. This is probably because these conditions occurred over four years; heavy rainfall during the major rainy seasons during four other years also had a detrimental effect. On the contrary, low levels of rainfall during the major rainy season in 2009 spurred an increase in social wasp populations. We conclude that recent climatic changes have likely resulted in fewer social wasp colonies because they have lowered the wasps'' resistance to parasitoids and pathogens. These results imply that Neotropical social wasps can be regarded as bio-indicators because they highlight the impact of climatic changes not yet perceptible in plants and other animals.     

Multi-scale sampling to evaluate assemblage dynamics in an oceanic marine reserve

To resolve the capacity of Marine Protected Areas (MPA) to enhance fish productivity it is first necessary to understand how environmental conditions affect the distribution and abundance of fishes independent of potential reserve effects. Baseline fish production was examined from 2002–2004 through ichthyoplankton sampling in a large (10,878 km²) Southern Californian oceanic marine reserve, the Cowcod Conservation Area (CCA) that was established in 2001, and the Southern California Bight as a whole (238,000 km² CalCOFI sampling domain). The CCA assemblage changed through time as the importance of oceanic-pelagic species decreased between 2002 (La Niña) and 2003 (El Niño) and then increased in 2004 (El Niño), while oceanic species and rockfishes displayed the opposite pattern. By contrast, the CalCOFI assemblage was relatively stable through time. Depth, temperature, and zooplankton explained more of the variability in assemblage structure at the CalCOFI scale than they did at the CCA scale. CalCOFI sampling revealed that oceanic species impinged upon the CCA between 2002 and 2003 in association with warmer offshore waters, thus explaining the increased influence of these species in the CCA during the El Nino years. Multi-scale, spatially explicit sampling and analysis was necessary to interpret assemblage dynamics in the CCA and likely will be needed to evaluate other focal oceanic marine reserves throughout the world.     

Nonstationary influence of El Niño on the synchronous dengue epidemics in Thailand

BackgroundSeveral factors, including environmental and climatic factors, influence the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Nevertheless, the identification and relative importance of climatic factors for vector-borne diseases remain controversial. Dengue is the world''s most important viral vector-borne disease, and the controversy about climatic effects also applies in this case. Here we address the role of climate variability in shaping the interannual pattern of dengue epidemics.ConclusionThe underlying mechanism for the synchronisation of dengue epidemics may resemble that of a pacemaker, in which intrinsic disease dynamics interact with climate variations driven by El Niño to propagate travelling waves of infection. When association with El Niño is strong in the 2–3-y periodic mode, one observes high synchrony of dengue epidemics over Thailand. When this association is absent, the seasonal dynamics become dominant and the synchrony initiated in Bangkok collapses.     

Human dimensions of climate change: the vulnerability of small farmers in the Amazon

This paper argues for a twofold perspective on human adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. First, we need to understand the processes that mediate perceptions of environmental change and the behavioural responses at the levels of the individual and the local population. Second, we should take into account the process of production and dissemination of global and national climate information and models to regional and local populations, especially small farmers. We discuss the sociocultural and environmental diversity of small farmers in the Amazon and their susceptibility to climate change associated with drought, flooding and accidental fire. Using survey, ethnographic and archival data from study areas in the state of Pará, we discuss farmers'' sources of knowledge and long-term memory of climatic events, drought and accidental fire; their sources of climate information; their responses to drought and fire events and the impact of changing rainfall patterns on land use. We highlight the challenges of adaptation to climate change created by the influence of migration and family turnover on collective action and memory, the mismatch of scales used to monitor and disseminate climate data and the lack of extension services to translate large-scale forecasts to local needs. We found that for most farmers, memories of extended drought tend to decrease significantly after 3 years. Over 50% of the farmers interviewed in 2002 did not remember as significant the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought of 1997/1998. This helps explain why approximately 40% of the farmers have not changed their land-use behaviours in the face of the strongest ENSO event of the twentieth century.     

To breed or not to breed: a seabird's response to extreme climatic events

Intermittent breeding is an important life-history strategy that has rarely been quantified in the wild and for which drivers remain unclear. It may be the result of a trade-off between survival and reproduction, with individuals skipping breeding when breeding conditions are below a certain threshold. Heterogeneity in individual quality can also lead to heterogeneity in intermittent breeding. We modelled survival, recruitment and breeding probability of the red-footed booby (Sula sula), using a 19 year mark–recapture dataset involving more than 11 000 birds. We showed that skipping breeding was more likely in El-Niño years, correlated with an increase in the local sea surface temperature, supporting the hypothesis that it may be partly an adaptive strategy of birds to face the trade-off between survival and reproduction owing to environmental constraints. We also showed that the age-specific probability of first breeding attempt was synchronized among different age-classes and higher in El-Niño years. This result suggested that pre-breeders may benefit from lowered competition with experienced breeders in years of high skipping probabilities.     

Constraints on plastic responses to climate variation in red deer

Influences of climate on life history traits in natural populations are well documented. However, the implications of between-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity underlying observed trait-environment relationships are rarely considered due to the large, long-term datasets required for such analysis. Studies typically present correlations of annual trait means with climate or assume that individual phenotypic responses are constant. Here, we examine this additional level of variation and show that, in a red deer population on the Isle of Rum, Scotland, changes in climate generate changes in phenotype only amongst individuals who have experienced favourable ecological conditions. Examination of relationships between offspring birth weight and spring temperature within the lifetimes of individual females revealed that the tendency to respond to climate declined as the population density experienced early in life increased. The presence of such systematic variation in individual plasticity is rarely documented in the wild, and has important implications for our understanding of the environmental dependencies of traits under varying ecological conditions.     

Effects of age,sex, and ENSO phase on foraging and flight performance in Nazca boobies

Age‐related changes in survival and reproduction are common in seabirds; however, the underlying causes remain elusive. A lack of experience for young individuals, and a decline in foraging performance for old birds, could underlie age‐related variation in reproduction because reproductive success is connected closely to provisioning offspring. For seabirds, flapping flight during foraging trips is physiologically costly; inexperience or senescent decline in performance of this demanding activity might cap delivery of food to the nest, providing a proximate explanation for poor breeding success in young and old age, respectively. We evaluated the hypothesis that young and old Nazca boobies (Sula granti), a Galápagos seabird, demonstrate deficits in foraging outcomes and flight performance. We tagged incubating male and female adults across the life span with both accelerometer and GPS loggers during the incubation periods of two breeding seasons (years), during the 2015 El Niño and the following weak La Niña. We tested the ability of age, sex, and environment to explain variation in foraging outcomes (e.g., mass gained) and flight variables (e.g., wingbeat frequency). Consistent with senescence, old birds gained less mass while foraging than middle‐aged individuals, a marginal effect, and achieved a slower airspeed late in a foraging trip. Contrary to expectations, young birds showed no deficit in foraging outcomes or flight performance, except for airspeed (contingent on environment). Young birds flew slower than middle‐aged birds in 2015, but faster than middle‐aged birds in 2016. Wingbeat frequency, flap–glide ratio, and body displacement (approximating wingbeat strength) failed to predict airspeed and were unaffected by age. Sex influenced nearly all aspects of performance. Environment affected flight performance and foraging outcomes. Boobies'' foraging outcomes were better during the extreme 2015 El Niño than during the 2016 weak La Niña, a surprising result given the negative effects tropical seabirds often experience during extreme El Niños.     

Global responses of terrestrial productivity to contemporary climatic oscillations

The terrestrial biosphere is subjected to a wide range of natural climatic oscillations. Best known is the El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) that exerts globally extensive impacts on crops and natural vegetation. A 50-year time series of ENSO events has been analysed to determine those geographical areas that are reliably impacted by ENSO events. Most areas are impacted by changes in precipitation; however, the Pacific Northwest is warmed by El Niño events. Vegetation gross primary production (GPP) has been simulated for these areas, and tests well against independent satellite observations of the normalized difference vegetation index. Analyses of selected geographical areas indicate that changes in GPP often lead to significant changes in ecosystem structure and dynamics. The Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is another climatic oscillation that originates from the Pacific and exerts global impacts that are rather similar to ENSO events. However, the longer period of the PDO provided two phases in the time series with a cool phase from 1951 to 1976 and a warm phase from 1977 to 2002. It was notable that the cool phase of the PDO acted additively with cool ENSO phases to exacerbate drought in the earlier period for the southwest USA. By contrast in India, the cool phase of the PDO appears to reduce the negative impacts of warm ENSO events on crop production.     

The Effect of Climate Variability on Gray Whales (Eschrichtius robustus) within Their Wintering Areas

The environmental conditions of the breeding and feeding grounds of the gray whale (Eschrichtius robustus) fluctuates at inter-annual scales in response to regional and basin climate patterns. Thus, the goals of this study were to assess if there are any relationships between summer sea ice on their feeding ground and counts of gray whale mother-calf (MC) pairs at Ojo de Liebre Lagoon (OLL); and if El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences the winter distribution of gray whales MC pairs in the three primary breeding lagoons of OLL, San Ignacio Lagoon (SIL) and Santo Domingo Channel north of Bahia Magdalena (SDCh). Maximum February counts of MC pairs were compared with the length of the open-water season at the Bering Sea during the previous year. Then, an ENSO index and sea surface temperature anomalies outside the primary lagoons was compared with the maximum February counts of MC pairs at these lagoons. Results showed that maximum counts of MC pairs in OLL correlates with sea ice conditions in their feeding grounds from the previous feeding season, and this relationship can be attributed to changes in nutritive condition of females. ENSO-related variability influences distribution of MC pairs in the southern area of SDCh during the warm 1998 El Niño and cold 1999 La Niña. This supports the hypothesis that changes in the whales’ distribution related to sea temperature occurs to reduce thermal-stress and optimize energy utilization for newborn whales. Although this last conclusion should be considered in view of the limited data available from all the whales’ wintering locations in all the years considered.     

Persistent organic pollution in a high-Arctic top predator: sex-dependent thresholds in adult survival

In long-lived species, any negative effect of pollution on adult survival may pose serious hazards to breeding populations. In this study, we measured concentrations of various organochlorines (OCs) (polychlorinated biphenyl and OC pesticides) in the blood of a large number of adult glaucous gulls (Larus hyperboreus) breeding on Bjørnøya (Bear Island) in the Norwegian Arctic, and modelled their local survival using capture–recapture analysis. Survival was negatively associated with concentrations of OCs in the blood. The effect of OCs was nonlinear and evident only among birds with the highest concentrations (the uppermost deciles of contamination). The threshold for depressed survival differed between the sexes, with females being more sensitive to contamination. For birds with lower OC concentration, survival was very high, i.e. at the upper range of survival rates reported from glaucous and other large gull species in other, presumably less contaminated populations. We propose two non-exclusive explanations. First, at some threshold of OC concentration, parents (especially males) may abandon reproduction to maximize their own survival. Second, high contamination of OC may eliminate the most sensitive individuals from the population (especially among females), inducing a strong selection towards high-quality and less sensitive phenotypes.     

Cholera and Shigellosis: Different Epidemiology but Similar Responses to Climate Variability

Background

Comparative studies of the associations between different infectious diseases and climate variability, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, are lacking. Diarrheal illnesses, particularly cholera and shigellosis, provide an important opportunity to apply a comparative approach. Cholera and shigellosis have significant global mortality and morbidity burden, pronounced differences in transmission pathways and pathogen ecologies, and there is an established climate link with cholera. In particular, the specific ecology of Vibrio cholerae is often invoked to explain the sensitivity of that disease to climate.

Methods and Findings

The extensive surveillance data of the International Center for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh are used here to revisit the known associations between cholera and climate, and to address their similarity to previously unexplored patterns for shigellosis. Monthly case data for both the city of Dhaka and a rural area known as Matlab are analyzed with respect to their association with El Niño and flooding. Linear correlations are examined between flooding and cumulative cases, as well as for flooding and El Niño. Rank-correlation maps are also computed between disease cases in the post-monsoon epidemic season and sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. Similar climate associations are found for both diseases and both locations. Increased cases follow increased monsoon flooding and increased sea surface temperatures in the preceding winter corresponding to an El Niño event.

Conclusions

The similarity in association patterns suggests a systemic breakdown in population health with changing environmental conditions, in which climate variability acts primarily through increasing the exposure risk of the human population. We discuss these results in the context of the on-going debate on the relative importance of the environmental reservoir vs. secondary transmission, as well as the implications for the use of El Niño as an early indicator of flooding and enteric disease risk.     

Climate change and temperature-dependent sex determination: can individual plasticity in nesting phenology prevent extreme sex ratios?

Under temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), temperatures experienced by embryos during development determine the sex of the offspring. Consequently, populations of organisms with TSD have the potential to be strongly impacted by climatic warming that could bias offspring sex ratio, a fundamental demographic parameter involved in population dynamics. Moreover, many taxa with TSD are imperiled, so research on this phenomenon, particularly long-term field study, has assumed great urgency. Recently, turtles with TSD have joined the diverse list of taxa that have demonstrated population-level changes in breeding phenology in response to recent climate change. This raises the possibility that any adverse impacts of climate change on populations may be alleviated by individual plasticity in nesting phenology. Here, we examine data from a long-term study on a population of painted turtles (Chrysemys picta) to determine whether changes in phenology are due to individual plasticity and whether individual plasticity in the timing of nesting has the capacity to offset the sex ratio effects of a rise in climatic temperature. We find that individual females show plasticity in the date of first nesting each year, and that this plasticity depends on the climate from the previous winter. First nesting date is not repeatable within individuals, suggesting that it would not respond to selection. Sex ratios of hatchlings within a nest declined nonsignificantly over the nesting season. However, small increases in summer temperature had a much stronger effect on nest sex ratios than did laying nests earlier in the season. For this and other reasons, it seems unlikely that individual plasticity in the timing of nesting will offset the effects of climate change on sex ratios in this population, and we hypothesize that this conclusion applies to other populations with TSD.     

Effects of large-scale climatic fluctuations on survival and production of young in a Neotropical migrant songbird, the yellow warbler Dendroica petechia

Migrant songbirds are vulnerable to changes in climatic conditions on both the breeding and wintering grounds. For North American Neotropical migrants, the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), via its effects on global precipitation and temperature, modulates the productivity of their temperate and tropical terrestrial ecosystems used during the course of their annual cycle. We evaluated how a densely nesting population of yellow warblers Dendroica petechia in a riparian forest in southern Manitoba, Canada, responded to the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) between 1992 and 2001. Standardized mist netting was used to estimate apparent annual survival of adults and production of young. Both adult survival and the production of young were positively correlated with the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). More specifically, values of both these demographic parameters were lowest during El Niño years and highest during La Niña years. These findings demonstrate the influence of climate on populations of Neotropical migrants in North America. The more frequent El Niños predicted to result from future global climate change could negatively affect populations of yellow warblers and other Neotropical migrants breeding in this region.     

Hormone levels predict individual differences in reproductive success in a passerine bird

Hormones mediate major physiological and behavioural components of the reproductive phenotype of individuals. To understand basic evolutionary processes in the hormonal regulation of reproductive traits, we need to know whether, and during which reproductive phases, individual variation in hormone concentrations relates to fitness in natural populations. We related circulating concentrations of prolactin and corticosterone to parental behaviour and reproductive success during both the pre-breeding and the chick-rearing stages in both individuals of pairs of free-living house sparrows, Passer domesticus. Prolactin and baseline corticosterone concentrations in pre-breeding females, and prolactin concentrations in pre-breeding males, predicted total number of fledglings. When the strong effect of lay date on total fledgling number was corrected for, only pre-breeding baseline corticosterone, but not prolactin, was negatively correlated with the reproductive success of females. During the breeding season, nestling provisioning rates of both sexes were negatively correlated with stress-induced corticosterone levels. Lastly, individuals of both sexes with low baseline corticosterone before and high baseline corticosterone during breeding raised the most offspring, suggesting that either the plasticity of this trait contributes to reproductive success or that high parental effort leads to increased hormone concentrations. Thus hormone concentrations both before and during breeding, as well as their seasonal dynamics, predict reproductive success, suggesting that individual variation in absolute concentrations and in plasticity is functionally significant, and, if heritable, may be a target of selection.     

Variation in phenotypic plasticity and selection patterns in blue tit breeding time: between- and within-population comparisons

1.?Phenotypic plasticity, the response of individual phenotypes to their environment, can allow organisms to cope with spatio-temporal variation in environmental conditions. Recent studies have shown that variation exists among individuals in their capacity to adjust their traits to environmental changes and that this individual plasticity can be under strong selection. Yet, little is known on the extent and ultimate causes of variation between populations and individuals in plasticity patterns. 2.?In passerines, timing of breeding is a key life-history trait strongly related to fitness and is known to vary with the environment, but few studies have investigated the within-species variation in individual plasticity. 3.?Here, we studied between- and within-population variation in breeding time, phenotypic plasticity and selection patterns for this trait in four Mediterranean populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) breeding in habitats varying in structure and quality. 4.?Although there was no significant warming over the course of the study, we found evidence for earlier onset of breeding in warmer years in all populations, with reduced plasticity in the less predictable environment. In two of four populations, there was significant inter-individual variation in plasticity for laying date. Interestingly, selection for earlier laying date was significant only in populations where there was no inter-individual differences in plasticity. 5.?Our results show that generalization of plasticity patterns among populations of the same species might be challenging even at a small spatial scale and that the amount of within-individual variation in phenotypic plasticity may be linked to selective pressures acting on these phenotypic traits.     

Acoustic experience shapes female mate choice in field crickets

Female choice can drive the evolution of extravagant male traits. In invertebrates, the influence of prior social experience on female choice has only recently been considered. To better understand the evolutionary implications of experience-mediated plasticity in female choice, we investigated the effect of acoustic experience during rearing on female responsiveness to male song in the field cricket Teleogryllus oceanicus. Acoustic experience has unique biological relevance in this species: a morphological mutation has rendered over 90 per cent of males on the Hawaiian island of Kauai silent in fewer than 20 generations, impeding females' abilities to locate potential mates. Females reared in silent conditions mimicking Kauai were less discriminating of male calling song and more responsive to playbacks, compared with females that experienced song during rearing. Our results to our knowledge, are the first demonstration of long-term effects of acoustic experience in an arthropod, and suggest that female T. oceanicus may be able to compensate for the reduced availability of long-range male sexual signals by increasing their responsiveness to the few remaining signallers. Understanding the adaptive significance of experience-mediated plasticity in female choice provides insight into processes that facilitate rapid evolutionary change and shape sexual selection pressure in natural populations.     

Responding to environmental change: plastic responses vary little in a synchronous breeder

The impact of environmental change on animal populations is strongly influenced by the ability of individuals to plastically adjust key life-history events. There is therefore considerable interest in establishing the degree of plasticity in traits and how selection acts on plasticity in natural populations. Breeding time is a key life-history trait that affects fitness and recent studies have found that females vary significantly in their breeding time-environment relationships, with selection often favouring individuals exhibiting stronger plastic responses. In contrast, here, we show that although breeding time in the common guillemot, Uria aalge, is highly plastic at the population level in response to a large-scale environmental cue (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO), there is very little between-individual variation-most individuals respond to this climate cue very similarly. We demonstrate strong stabilizing selection against individuals who deviate from the average population-level response to NAO. This species differs significantly from those previously studied in being a colonial breeder, in which reproductive synchrony has a substantial impact on fitness; we suggest that counter selection imposed by a need for synchrony could limit individuals in their response and potential for directional selection to act. This demonstrates the importance of considering the relative costs and benefits of highly plastic responses in assessing the likely response of a population to the environmental change.     

Climatically driven fluctuations in Southern Ocean ecosystems

Determining how climate fluctuations affect ocean ecosystems requires an understanding of how biological and physical processes interact across a wide range of scales. Here we examine the role of physical and biological processes in generating fluctuations in the ecosystem around South Georgia in the South Atlantic sector of the Southern Ocean. Anomalies in sea surface temperature (SST) in the South Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean have previously been shown to be generated through atmospheric teleconnections with El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related processes. These SST anomalies are propagated via the Antarctic Circumpolar Current into the South Atlantic (on time scales of more than 1 year), where ENSO and Southern Annular Mode-related atmospheric processes have a direct influence on short (less than six months) time scales. We find that across the South Atlantic sector, these changes in SST, and related fluctuations in winter sea ice extent, affect the recruitment and dispersal of Antarctic krill. This oceanographically driven variation in krill population dynamics and abundance in turn affects the breeding success of seabird and marine mammal predators that depend on krill as food. Such propagating anomalies, mediated through physical and trophic interactions, are likely to be an important component of variation in ocean ecosystems and affect responses to longer term change. Population models derived on the basis of these oceanic fluctuations indicate that plausible rates of regional warming of 1^oC over the next 100 years could lead to more than a 95% reduction in the biomass and abundance of krill across the Scotia Sea by the end of the century.