Soil greenhouse gas fluxes and global warming potential in four high-yielding maize systems

Crop intensification is often thought to increase greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, but studies in which crop management is optimized to exploit crop yield potential are rare. We conducted a field study in eastern Nebraska, USA to quantify GHG emissions, changes in soil organic carbon (SOC) and the net global warming potential (GWP) in four irrigated systems: continuous maize with recommended best management practices (CC‐rec) or intensive management (CC‐int) and maize–soybean rotation with recommended (CS‐rec) or intensive management (CS‐int). Grain yields of maize and soybean were generally within 80–100% of the estimated site yield potential. Large soil surface carbon dioxide (CO₂) fluxes were mostly associated with rapid crop growth, high temperature and high soil water content. Within each crop rotation, soil CO₂ efflux under intensive management was not consistently higher than with recommended management. Owing to differences in residue inputs, SOC increased in the two continuous maize systems, but decreased in CS‐rec or remained unchanged in CS‐int. N₂O emission peaks were mainly associated with high temperature and high soil water content resulting from rainfall or irrigation events, but less clearly related to soil NO₃‐N levels. N₂O fluxes in intensively managed systems were only occasionally greater than those measured in the CC‐rec and CS‐rec systems. Fertilizer‐induced N₂O emissions ranged from 1.9% to 3.5% in 2003, from 0.8% to 1.5% in 2004 and from 0.4% to 0.5% in 2005, with no consistent differences among the four systems. All four cropping systems where net sources of GHG. However, due to increased soil C sequestration continuous maize systems had lower GWP than maize–soybean systems and intensive management did not cause a significant increase in GWP. Converting maize grain to ethanol in the two continuous maize systems resulted in a net reduction in life cycle GHG emissions of maize ethanol relative to petrol‐based gasoline by 33–38%. Our study provided evidence that net GHG emissions from agricultural systems can be kept low when management is optimized toward better exploitation of the yield potential. Major components for this included (i) choosing the right combination of adopted varieties, planting date and plant population to maximize crop biomass productivity, (ii) tactical water and nitrogen (N) management decisions that contributed to high N use efficiency and avoided extreme N₂O emissions, and (iii) a deep tillage and residue management approach that favored the build‐up of soil organic matter from large amounts of crop residues returned.     

Tropical understory herbaceous community responds more strongly to hurricane disturbance than to experimental warming

The effects of climate change on tropical forests may have global consequences due to the forests’ high biodiversity and major role in the global carbon cycle. In this study, we document the effects of experimental warming on the abundance and composition of a tropical forest floor herbaceous plant community in the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. This study was conducted within Tropical Responses to Altered Climate Experiment (TRACE) plots, which use infrared heaters under free‐air, open‐field conditions, to warm understory vegetation and soils + 4°C above nearby control plots. Hurricanes Irma and María damaged the heating infrastructure in the second year of warming, therefore, the study included one pretreatment year, one year of warming, and one year of hurricane response with no warming. We measured percent leaf cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, and species richness and diversity within three warmed and three control plots. Results showed that one year of experimental warming did not significantly affect the cover of individual herbaceous species, fern population dynamics, species richness, or species diversity. In contrast, herbaceous cover increased from 20% to 70%, bare ground decreased from 70% to 6%, and species composition shifted pre to posthurricane. The negligible effects of warming may have been due to the short duration of the warming treatment or an understory that is somewhat resistant to higher temperatures. Our results suggest that climate extremes that are predicted to increase with climate change, such as hurricanes and droughts, may cause more abrupt changes in tropical forest understories than longer‐term sustained warming.     

The response of Alaskan arctic tundra to experimental warming: differences between short- and long-term responses

Global climate models predict continued rapid warming for most of the Arctic throughout the next century. To further understand the response of arctic tundra to climate warming, four sites in northern Alaska were warmed for five to seven consecutive growing seasons using open‐top chambers. Sites were located in dry heath and wet meadow communities near Barrow (71°18′N, 156°40′W) and Atqasuk (70°29′N, 157°25′W). Change in plant community composition was measured using a point frame method. During the period of observation, species richness declined in control plots by up to 2.7 species plot^?1. Responses to warming varied by site but similar trends included increased canopy height (?0.1 to 2.3 cm) and relative cover of standing dead plant matter (1.5–6.0%) and graminoids (1.8–5.8%) and decreased species diversity (0.1–1.7 species plot^?1) and relative cover of lichens (0.2–9.1%) and bryophytes (1.4–4.6%) (parentheses enclose the range of average values for the sites). The response to warming was separated into an initial short‐term response assessed after two growing seasons of warming and a secondary longer‐term response assessed after an additional three to five growing seasons of warming. The initial responses to warming were similar in the four sites, while the secondary responses varied by site. The response to warming was greater at Barrow than Atqasuk because of a greater initial response at Barrow. However, the long‐term response to warming was projected to be greater at Atqasuk because of a greater secondary response at Atqasuk. These findings show that predictions of vegetation change due to climate warming based on manipulative experiments will differ depending on both the duration and plant community on which the study focuses.     

Experimental soil warming effects on CO2 and CH4 flux from a low elevation spruce–fir forest soil in Maine, USA

The effect of soil warming on CO₂ and CH₄ flux from a spruce–fir forest soil was evaluated at the Howland Integrated Forest Study site in Maine, USA from 1993 to 1995. Elevated soil temperatures (～5 °C) were maintained during the snow-free season (May – November) in replicated 15 × 15-m plots using electric cables buried 1–2 cm below the soil surface; replicated unheated plots served as the control. CO₂ evolution from the soil surface and soil air CO₂ concentrations both showed clear seasonal trends and significant (P < 0.0001) positive exponential relationships with soil temperature. Soil warming caused a 25–40% increase in CO₂ flux from the heated plots compared to the controls. No significant differences were observed between heated and control plot soil air CO₂ concentrations which we attribute to rapid equilibration with the atmosphere in the O horizon and minimal treatment effects in the B horizon. Methane fluxes were highly variable and showed no consistent trends with treatment.     

Foraging by forest ants under experimental climatic warming: a test at two sites

Climatic warming is altering the behavior of individuals and the composition of communities. However, recent studies have shown that the impact of warming on ectotherms varies geographically: species at warmer sites where environmental temperatures are closer to their upper critical thermal limits are more likely to be negatively impacted by warming than are species inhabiting relatively cooler sites. We used a large‐scale experimental temperature manipulation to warm intact forest ant assemblages in the field and examine the impacts of chronic warming on foraging at a southern (North Carolina) and northern (Massachusetts) site in eastern North America. We examined the influence of temperature on the abundance and recruitment of foragers as well as the number of different species observed foraging. Finally, we examined the relationship between the mean temperature at which a species was found foraging and the critical thermal maximum temperature of that species, relating functional traits to behavior. We found that forager abundance and richness were related to the experimental increase in temperature at the southern site, but not the northern site. Additionally, individual species responded differently to temperature: some species foraged more under warmer conditions, whereas others foraged less. Importantly, these species‐specific responses were related to functional traits of species (at least at the Duke Forest site). Species with higher critical thermal maxima had greater forager densities at higher temperatures than did species with lower critical thermal maxima. Our results indicate that while climatic warming may alter patterns of foraging activity in predictable ways, these shifts vary among species and between sites. More southerly sites and species with lower critical thermal maxima are likely to be at greater risk to ongoing climatic warming.     

Intra-Annual Variability in Responses of a Canopy Forming Kelp to Cumulative Low Tide Heat Stress: Implications for Populations at the Trailing Range Edge

Anthropogenic climate change is driving the redistribution of species at a global scale. For marine species, populations at trailing edges often live very close to their upper thermal limits and, as such, poleward range contractions are one of the most pervasive effects of ongoing and predicted warming. However, the mechanics of processes driving such contractions are poorly understood. Here, we examined the response of the habitat forming kelp, Laminaria digitata, to realistic terrestrial heatwave simulations akin to those experienced by intertidal populations persisting at the trailing range edge in the northeast Atlantic (SW England). We conducted experiments in both spring and autumn to determine temporal variability in the effects of heatwaves. In spring, heatwave scenarios caused minimal stress to L. digitata but in autumn all scenarios tested resulted in tissue being nonviable by the end of each assay. The effects of heatwave scenarios were only apparent after consecutive exposures, indicating erosion of resilience over time. Monthly field surveys corroborated experimental evidence as the prevalence of bleaching (an indication of physiological stress and tissue damage) in natural populations was greatest in autumn and early winter. Overall, our data showed that L. digitata populations in SW England persist close to their upper physiological limits for emersion stress in autumn. As the intensity of extreme warming events is likely to increase with anthropogenic climate change, thermal conditions experienced during periods of emersion will soon exceed physiological thresholds and will likely induce widespread mortality and consequent changes at the population level.     

Taller and larger: shifts in Arctic tundra leaf traits after 16 years of experimental warming

Understanding plant trait responses to elevated temperatures in the Arctic is critical in light of recent and continuing climate change, especially because these traits act as key mechanisms in climate‐vegetation feedbacks. Since 1992, we have artificially warmed three plant communities at Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut, Canada (79°N). In each of the communities, we used open‐top chambers (OTCs) to passively warm vegetation by 1–2 °C. In the summer of 2008, we investigated the intraspecific trait responses of five key species to 16 years of continuous warming. We examined eight traits that quantify different aspects of plant performance: leaf size, specific leaf area (SLA), leaf dry matter content (LDMC), plant height, leaf carbon concentration, leaf nitrogen concentration, leaf carbon isotope discrimination (LCID), and leaf δ¹⁵N. Long‐term artificial warming affected five traits, including at least one trait in every species studied. The evergreen shrub Cassiope tetragona responded most frequently (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased SLA, leaf carbon concentration, and LCID), followed by the deciduous shrub Salix arctica (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased SLA) and the evergreen shrub Dryas integrifolia (increased leaf size and plant height/decreased LCID), the forb Oxyria digyna (increased leaf size and plant height), and the sedge Eriophorum angustifolium spp. triste (decreased leaf carbon concentration). Warming did not affect δ¹⁵N, leaf nitrogen concentration, or LDMC. Overall, growth traits were more sensitive to warming than leaf chemistry traits. Notably, we found that responses to warming were sustained, even after many years of treatment. Our work suggests that tundra plants in the High Arctic will show a multifaceted response to warming, often including taller shoots with larger leaves.     

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species (Diphascon pingue, Adropion scoticum, and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.     

Soil microbial responses to experimental warming and clipping in a tallgrass prairie

Global surface temperature is predicted to increase by 1.4–5.8°C by the end of this century. However, the impacts of this projected warming on soil C balance and the C budget of terrestrial ecosystems are not clear. One major source of uncertainty stems from warming effects on soil microbes, which exert a dominant influence on the net C balance of terrestrial ecosystems by controlling organic matter decomposition and plant nutrient availability. We, therefore, conducted an experiment in a tallgrass prairie ecosystem at the Great Plain Apiaries (near Norman, OK) to study soil microbial responses to temperature elevation of about 2°C through artificial heating in clipped and unclipped field plots. While warming did not induce significant changes in net N mineralization, soil microbial biomass and respiration rate, it tended to reduce extractable inorganic N during the second and third warming years, likely through increasing plant uptake. In addition, microbial substrate utilization patterns and the profiles of microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) showed that warming caused a shift in the soil microbial community structure in unclipped subplots, leading to the relative dominance of fungi as evidenced by the increased ratio of fungal to bacterial PLFAs. However, no warming effect on soil microbial community structure was found in clipped subplots where a similar scale of temperature increase occurred. Clipping also significantly reduced soil microbial biomass and respiration rate in both warmed and unwarmed plots. These results indicated that warming‐led enhancement of plant growth rather than the temperature increase itself may primarily regulate soil microbial response. Our observations show that warming may increase the relative contribution of fungi to the soil microbial community, suggesting that shifts in the microbial community structure may constitute a major mechanism underlying warming acclimatization of soil respiration.     

全球变暖对太行山植被生产力及土壤水分的影响

将相同的自然植被用Lysimeter从高海拔下移至低海拔,温度升高2℃,同时设置平均降水,增加10％降水,增加20％降水,减少10％降水和减少20％降水5个降水处理,模拟全球变暖带来的温度升高和降水变化对植被生产力和土壤水分的影响,两年的野外实验表明,温度升高造成生态适应性差的野古草（Arundinelia hirta)生产力显著下降,致使整个测试群落生产力降低,低海拔实验点生产力显著低于高海拔实验点,温度升高对铁杆（Artemisia sacrorum)和黄背草（Themeda japonica)的影响较小,太行山区的植被对降水的变化反映,降水增加使植被的生产力水平显著提高,其中降水增加20％的处理生产力比平均降水处理的生产力增加22％,增加降水处理的土壤含水量显著高于平均降水和降水减少的实验处理,由于植被的减少,温度升高的实验点从第二年开始土壤水分较高。     

两种增温方式对杉木和木荷单萜烯通量及光合特性的影响

全球增温对森林生态系统碳循环产生了重要影响,而生物源挥发性有机化合物(Biogenic volatile organic compounds,BVOCs)是生态系统中生物合成的重要次生碳代谢产物。作为BVOCs的主要组成成分,单萜烯(Monoterpenes,MTs)合成与释放在森林生态系统碳循环过程中有重要作用。以南亚热带常见树种杉木(Cunninghamia Lanceolata(Lamb.) Hook)和木荷(Schima superba Gardn.et Champ)2年生盆栽苗木为对象,设置未增温、电热线增温和红外辐射器增温3个处理,分析不同增温方式对植物MTs通量、光合作用及相关酶活性的影响。结果表明:杉木MTs通量显著高于木荷,分别为4027.634-16239.608 pmol m^-2 s^-1、49.228-130.512 pmol m^-2 s^-1。电热线增温导致杉木MTs通量增加约2倍,以柠檬烯和γ-松油烯为主,分别占73.3%和15.1%;红外辐射器增温处理下杉木MTs通量下降52.6%,以柠檬烯和α-松油烯为主,分别占71.3%和18.9%。不同处理间杉木气孔导度的变化趋势与其MTs通量结果类似,增温可能主要通过影响植物气孔导度从而影响MTs释放。增温处理后木荷净光合速率增加,其中电热线增温处理效果更显著(9.890 μmol CO₂ m^-2 s^-1),且不同处理存在显著性差异(P<0.05)。因此,在进行全球增温模拟研究时需考虑增温方式差异,建议尽量设置多种增温方式,以便更全面反映增温的生态效应,为全球增温模型提供更可靠的数据支撑。     

Thermal plasticity of photosynthesis: the role of acclimation in forest responses to a warming climate

The increasing air temperatures central to climate change predictions have the potential to alter forest ecosystem function and structure by exceeding temperatures optimal for carbon gain. Such changes are projected to threaten survival of sensitive species, leading to local extinctions, range migrations, and altered forest composition. This study investigated photosynthetic sensitivity to temperature and the potential for acclimation in relation to the climatic provenance of five species of deciduous trees, Liquidambar styraciflua, Quercus rubra, Quercus falcata, Betula alleghaniensis, and Populus grandidentata. Open‐top chambers supplied three levels of warming (+0, +2, and +4 °C above ambient) over 3 years, tracking natural temperature variability. Optimal temperature for CO₂ assimilation was strongly correlated with daytime temperature in all treatments, but assimilation rates at those optima were comparable. Adjustment of thermal optima was confirmed in all species, whether temperatures varied with season or treatment, and regardless of climate in the species' range or provenance of the plant material. Temperature optima from 17° to 34° were observed. Across species, acclimation potentials varied from 0.55 °C to 1.07 °C per degree change in daytime temperature. Responses to the temperature manipulation were not different from the seasonal acclimation observed in mature indigenous trees, suggesting that photosynthetic responses should not be modeled using static temperature functions, but should incorporate an adjustment to account for acclimation. The high degree of homeostasis observed indicates that direct impacts of climatic warming on forest productivity, species survival, and range limits may be less than predicted by existing models.     

Response of the terrestrial biosphere to global climate change and human perturbation

Despite 20 years of intensive effort to understand the global carbon cycle, the budget for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is unbalanced. To explain why atmospheric CO₂ is not increasing as rapidly as it should be, various workers have suggested that land vegetation acts as a sink for carbon dioxide. Here, I examine various possibilities and find that the evidence for a sink of sufficient magnitude on land is poor. Moreover, it is unlikely that the land vegetation will act as a sink in the postulated warmer global climates of the future. In response to rapid human population growth, destruction of natural ecosystems in the tropics remains a large net source of CO₂ for the atmosphere, which is only partially compensated by the potential for carbon storage in temperate and boreal regions. Direct and inadvertent human effects on land vegetation might increase the magnitude of regional CO₂ storage on land, but they are unlikely to play a significant role in moderating the potential rate of greenhouse warming in the future.     

Impacts of experimental warming and northern light climate on growth and root fungal communities of Scots pine populations

Global warming is driving plant range shifts towards higher latitudes, where plants encounter different light environment (photoperiod and light spectral quality) than that to which they are adapted. Light environment may indirectly influence the belowground part of the plant, where trees associate with ectomycorrhizal (ECM) and other biotrophic fungi. We studied joint impacts of warming and light climate on Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and its root-associated fungi in a reciprocal transplantation study, where pine seedlings from southern and northern tree populations were grown under similar experimental temperature in southern (60°N) and northern (69°N) Finland. Based on fungal ITS rDNA, the abundance of Basidiomycota, and ECM fungi in particular, was highest in the roots of southern pines in the south and in northern pines in the north, and seedling biomass was determined by population origin. Our results imply that root-associated fungi may respond differentially in native vs. non-native light environment of the host plant.     

Scaling up experimental ocean acidification and warming research: from individuals to the ecosystem

Understanding long‐term, ecosystem‐level impacts of climate change is challenging because experimental research frequently focuses on short‐term, individual‐level impacts in isolation. We address this shortcoming first through an interdisciplinary ensemble of novel experimental techniques to investigate the impacts of 14‐month exposure to ocean acidification and warming (OAW) on the physiology, activity, predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predation of an important marine gastropod (Nucella lapillus). We simultaneously estimated the potential impacts of these global drivers on N. lapillus population dynamics and dispersal parameters. We then used these data to parameterize a dynamic bioclimatic envelope model, to investigate the consequences of OAW on the distribution of the species in the wider NE Atlantic region by 2100. The model accounts also for changes in the distribution of resources, suitable habitat and environment simulated by finely resolved biogeochemical models, under three IPCC global emissions scenarios. The experiments showed that temperature had the greatest impact on individual‐level responses, while acidification had a similarly important role in the mediation of predatory behaviour and susceptibility to predators. Changes in Nucella predatory behaviour appeared to serve as a strategy to mitigate individual‐level impacts of acidification, but the development of this response may be limited in the presence of predators. The model projected significant large‐scale changes in the distribution of Nucella by the year 2100 that were exacerbated by rising greenhouse gas emissions. These changes were spatially heterogeneous, as the degree of impact of OAW on the combination of responses considered by the model varied depending on local‐environmental conditions and resource availability. Such changes in macro‐scale distributions cannot be predicted by investigating individual‐level impacts in isolation, or by considering climate stressors separately. Scaling up the results of experimental climate change research requires approaches that account for long‐term, multiscale responses to multiple stressors, in an ecosystem context.     

Thermal acclimation of leaf respiration of tropical trees and lianas: response to experimental canopy warming,and consequences for tropical forest carbon balance

Climate warming is expected to increase respiration rates of tropical forest trees and lianas, which may negatively affect the carbon balance of tropical forests. Thermal acclimation could mitigate the expected respiration increase, but the thermal acclimation potential of tropical forests remains largely unknown. In a tropical forest in Panama, we experimentally increased nighttime temperatures of upper canopy leaves of three tree and two liana species by on average 3  ° C for 1 week, and quantified temperature responses of leaf dark respiration. Respiration at 25  ° C (R₂₅) decreased with increasing leaf temperature, but acclimation did not result in perfect homeostasis of respiration across temperatures. In contrast, Q₁₀ of treatment and control leaves exhibited similarly high values (range 2.5–3.0) without evidence of acclimation. The decrease in R₂₅ was not caused by respiratory substrate depletion, as warming did not reduce leaf carbohydrate concentration. To evaluate the wider implications of our experimental results, we simulated the carbon cycle of tropical latitudes (24 ° S–24 ° N) from 2000 to 2100 using a dynamic global vegetation model (LM3VN) modified to account for acclimation. Acclimation reduced the degree to which respiration increases with climate warming in the model relative to a no‐acclimation scenario, leading to 21% greater increase in net primary productivity and 18% greater increase in biomass carbon storage over the 21st century. We conclude that leaf respiration of tropical forest plants can acclimate to nighttime warming, thereby reducing the magnitude of the positive feedback between climate change and the carbon cycle.     

Soil respiration under climate warming: differential response of heterotrophic and autotrophic respiration

Despite decades of research, how climate warming alters the global flux of soil respiration is still poorly characterized. Here, we use meta‐analysis to synthesize 202 soil respiration datasets from 50 ecosystem warming experiments across multiple terrestrial ecosystems. We found that, on average, warming by 2 °C increased soil respiration by 12% during the early warming years, but warming‐induced drought partially offset this effect. More significantly, the two components of soil respiration, heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration showed distinct responses. The warming effect on autotrophic respiration was not statistically detectable during the early warming years, but nonetheless decreased with treatment duration. In contrast, warming by 2 °C increased heterotrophic respiration by an average of 21%, and this stimulation remained stable over the warming duration. This result challenged the assumption that microbial activity would acclimate to the rising temperature. Together, our findings demonstrate that distinguishing heterotrophic respiration and autotrophic respiration would allow us better understand and predict the long‐term response of soil respiration to warming. The dependence of soil respiration on soil moisture condition also underscores the importance of incorporating warming‐induced soil hydrological changes when modeling soil respiration under climate change.     

Lagged effects of experimental warming and doubled precipitation on annual and seasonal aboveground biomass production in a tallgrass prairie

Global climate change is expected to result in a greater frequency of extreme weather, which can cause lag effects on aboveground net primary production (ANPP). However, our understanding of lag effects is limited. To explore lag effects following extreme weather, we applied four treatments (control, doubled precipitation, 4 °C warming, and warming plus doubled precipitation) for 1 year in a randomized block design and monitored changes in ecosystem processes for 3 years in an old‐field tallgrass prairie in central Oklahoma. Biomass was estimated twice in the pretreatment year, and three times during the treatment and posttreatment years. Total plant biomass was increased by warming in spring of the treatment year and by doubled precipitation in summer. However, double precipitation suppressed fall production. During the following spring, biomass production was significantly suppressed in the formerly warmed plots 2 months after treatments ceased. Nine months after the end of treatments, fall production remained suppressed in double precipitation and warming plus double precipitation treatments. Also, the formerly warmed plots still had a significantly greater proportion of C₄ plants, while the warmed plus double precipitation plots retained a high proportion of C₃ plants. The lag effects of warming on biomass did not match the temporal patterns of soil nitrogen availability determined by plant root simulator probes, but coincided with warming‐induced decreases in available soil moisture in the deepest layers of soil which recovered to the pretreatment pattern approximately 10 months after the treatments ceased. Analyzing the data with an ecosystem model showed that the lagged temporal patterns of effects of warming and precipitation on biomass can be fully explained by warming‐induced differences in soil moisture. Thus, both the experimental results and modeling analysis indicate that water availability regulates lag effects of warming on biomass production.     

Effects of constant and fluctuating incubation temperatures on hatching success and hatchling traits in the diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin) in the context of the warming climate

As global temperatures continue to rise, so too will the nest temperatures of many species of turtles. Yet for most turtle species, including the estuarine diamondback terrapin (Malaclemys terrapin), there is limited information on embryonic sensitivity to elevated temperature. We incubated eggs of M. terrapin at three, mean temperatures (31, 34, 37 °C) under two thermal exposure regimes (constant or semi-naturally fluctuating temperature) and measured hatching success, developmental rate, and hatchling size. Hatching success was 100% at 31 °C and 67% at 34 °C, respectively; at 37 °C, all eggs failed early in the incubation period. These values were unaffected by exposure regime. The modeled LT₅₀ (temperature that was lethal to 50% of the test population) was 34.0 °C in the constant and 34.2 °C in the fluctuating thermal regime, reflecting a steep decline in survival between 33 and 35 °C. Hatchlings having been incubated at a constant 34 °C hatched sooner than those incubated at 31 °C under either constant or fluctuating temperature. Hatchlings were smaller in straight carapace length (CL) and width after having been incubated at 34 °C compared to 31 °C. Larger (CL) hatchlings resulted from fluctuating temperature conditions relative to constant temperature conditions, regardless of mean temperature. Based upon recent temperatures in natural nests, the M. terrapin population studied here appears to possess resiliency to several degrees of elevated mean nest temperatures, beyond which, embryonic mortality will likely sharply increase. When considered within the mosaic of challenges that Maryland's M. terrapin face as the climate warms, including ongoing habitat losses due to sea level rise and impending thermal impacts on bioenergetics and offspring sex ratios, a future increase in embryonic mortality could be a critical factor for a population already experiencing ecological and physiological challenges due to climate change.