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1.
REPRODUCTIVE PATTERNS OF THE HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
We evaluated reproductive patterns of the Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ) using a combination of fitted age-specific reproductive curves and analysis of reproductive patterns of individual females. We review the difficulties inherent in the acquisition and modeling of reproductive data with emphasis on the significance of reproductive senescence to populations with dissimilar age/sex compositions. Validation of the fitted reproductive parameters was accomplished by Monte Carlo sampling of parameter distributions to compare the expected number of pups with the observed production. Although the fitted reproductive functions appear to provide an acceptable fit to the raw reproductive data, we found that the fitted curves did a poor job of predicting the actual pup production in individual years because of high variability among years. To further verify, and elaborate on, the patterns in the pooled (multi-seal, and multi-year) rates, we examined attributes of the reproductive performance of individual seals. The attributes included age of primiparity, reproductive rates computed over several age ranges, and the relationship between reproductive performance and seal longevity. Analysis of individual seal patterns reinforced the conclusion that reproductive senescence is operative in monk seal populations.  相似文献   

2.
The use of photo-identification and its reliability in capture-recapture studies of Mediterranean monk seals were assessed using slides collected in the colony at Cap Blanc, western Sahara, from 1993 to 1996. Five tests indicated that researchers involved in photo-identification were proficient in matching slides of identified seals, consistent in classifying the side of the seal shown in slides and in assigning the morphological stage of the seal, and that changes of markings over a period of three years were insufficient to affect matching success. The certainty of identifying a seal was not dependent on the number of slides used but on distinctiveness of the markings and the quality of the slides taken. Capture-recapture abundance estimates were biased upwards when including poor quality slides. The exclusive use of excellent- and good quality slides provided the best estimates. The proportion of distinctive seals varied between morphological stages and was significantly lower in juveniles. When including the identification histories of juveniles, the heterogeneity of capture probabilities was higher. Therefore, abundance estimates were less biased when all juveniles were considered as non-distinctive seals. Reliable abundance estimates required a balance between duration of capture occasions and time interval between these.  相似文献   

3.
We used sighting reports, including decades of citizen-reported Hawaiian monk seal (Neomonachus schauinslandi) sightings, to describe female breeding biology and reproductive success in the main Hawaiian Islands. We first used this data set to describe the timing of events in the female reproductive cycle. We then conducted an expert review of patterns in sighting histories to detect unobserved pupping events. Finally, we estimated the age-specific reproductive curve for female monk seals in the main Hawaiian Islands. Charting reproductive cycles showed indications of the robust condition of female monk seals in the main Hawaiian Islands; they nursed pups 12% longer than their counterparts in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands and regained condition to molt more quickly after weaning a pup. By examining sighting histories, we were able to infer 25 unobserved pupping events that had previously gone uncounted. We accounted for additional uncertainty with a randomization procedure. After accounting for unobserved pupping events, the age-specific reproductive rate of main Hawaiian Islands monk seals exceeded 0.70 for prime aged females (8–18 years). This is the highest reproductive rate reported for any of the Hawaiian monk seal breeding sites, illustrating the important role of the main Hawaiian Islands population in Hawaiian monk seal recovery.  相似文献   

4.
Mountain lions (Puma concolor) are often difficult to monitor because of their low capture probabilities, extensive movements, and large territories. Methods for estimating the abundance of this species are needed to assess population status, determine harvest levels, evaluate the impacts of management actions on populations, and derive conservation and management strategies. Traditional mark–recapture methods do not explicitly account for differences in individual capture probabilities due to the spatial distribution of individuals in relation to survey effort (or trap locations). However, recent advances in the analysis of capture–recapture data have produced methods estimating abundance and density of animals from spatially explicit capture–recapture data that account for heterogeneity in capture probabilities due to the spatial organization of individuals and traps. We adapt recently developed spatial capture–recapture models to estimate density and abundance of mountain lions in western Montana. Volunteers and state agency personnel collected mountain lion DNA samples in portions of the Blackfoot drainage (7,908 km2) in west-central Montana using 2 methods: snow back-tracking mountain lion tracks to collect hair samples and biopsy darting treed mountain lions to obtain tissue samples. Overall, we recorded 72 individual capture events, including captures both with and without tissue sample collection and hair samples resulting in the identification of 50 individual mountain lions (30 females, 19 males, and 1 unknown sex individual). We estimated lion densities from 8 models containing effects of distance, sex, and survey effort on detection probability. Our population density estimates ranged from a minimum of 3.7 mountain lions/100 km2 (95% CI 2.3–5.7) under the distance only model (including only an effect of distance on detection probability) to 6.7 (95% CI 3.1–11.0) under the full model (including effects of distance, sex, survey effort, and distance × sex on detection probability). These numbers translate to a total estimate of 293 mountain lions (95% CI 182–451) to 529 (95% CI 245–870) within the Blackfoot drainage. Results from the distance model are similar to previous estimates of 3.6 mountain lions/100 km2 for the study area; however, results from all other models indicated greater numbers of mountain lions. Our results indicate that unstructured spatial sampling combined with spatial capture–recapture analysis can be an effective method for estimating large carnivore densities. Published 2012. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.  相似文献   

5.
Dorazio RM  Royle JA 《Biometrics》2003,59(2):351-364
We develop a parameterization of the beta-binomial mixture that provides sensible inferences about the size of a closed population when probabilities of capture or detection vary among individuals. Three classes of mixture models (beta-binomial, logistic-normal, and latent-class) are fitted to recaptures of snowshoe hares for estimating abundance and to counts of bird species for estimating species richness. In both sets of data, rates of detection appear to vary more among individuals (animals or species) than among sampling occasions or locations. The estimates of population size and species richness are sensitive to model-specific assumptions about the latent distribution of individual rates of detection. We demonstrate using simulation experiments that conventional diagnostics for assessing model adequacy, such as deviance, cannot be relied on for selecting classes of mixture models that produce valid inferences about population size. Prior knowledge about sources of individual heterogeneity in detection rates, if available, should be used to help select among classes of mixture models that are to be used for inference.  相似文献   

6.
Total estimated abundance of Hawaiian monk seals was just 1,161 individuals in 2008 and this number is decreasing. Most monk seals reside in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) where the decline is approximately 4%/yr, whereas relatively fewer seals currently occupy the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). It is widely accepted that the MHI population is increasing, although there are no formal estimates of total abundance, population growth rate or vital rates. This lack of information has hampered efforts to anticipate future scenarios and plan conservation measures. We present the first estimates of MHI monk seal survival and age‐specific reproductive rates. Using these rates, a conservative estimate of current MHI abundance and a previously published stochastic simulation model, we estimate the MHI population growth rate and projected abundance trend. Analogous estimates for the NWHI are derived from a much richer data set. Estimated survival from weaning to age 1 yr is 77% in the MHI, much higher than recent NWHI estimates ranging from 42% to 57%. Moreover, MHI females begin reproducing at a younger age and attain higher birth rates than observed in the NWHI. The estimated MHI intrinsic rate of population growth is 1.07 compared to a 0.89–0.96 range in the NWHI. Assuming an initial abundance of 152 animals in the MHI, projections indicate that if current demographic trends continue, abundance in the NWHI and MHI will equalize in approximately 15 yr. These results underscore the imperative to mitigate the NWHI decline while devoting conservation efforts to foster population growth in the MHI, where documented threats including fishery interactions, direct killing, and disease could rapidly undo the current fragile positive trend.  相似文献   

7.
The Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ) is thought to be a foraging generalist, preying on numerous species in diverse habitats of the subtropical Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. At the atoll of French Frigate Shoals, recent evidence of emaciation and low survival in monk seals prompted a search for their specific prey communities and foraging habitat.
A video camera (National Geographic Television's CRITTERCAM) fitted to 24 adult male seals documented benthic and demersal foraging on the deep slopes (50-80 m) of the atoll and neighboring banks. The number of bottom searches for prey was compared by year, time of day, type of bottom, individual seal, and length of bottom time. Analysis of variance identified a significant interaction of seal and bottom type, explaining 65% of the total variance. Seals fed on communities of cryptic fauna (fish and large invertebrates) in transitional "ecotone" regions of low relief where consolidated substrate, rubble, and talus bordered areas of sand. Independent areal surveys of bottom types throughout the atoll and neighboring banks suggest that the type of bottom selected as foraging habitat represents a relatively small percentage of the total benthic area available.  相似文献   

8.
Closed population capture-recapture analysis of camera-trap data has become the conventional method for estimating the abundance of individually recognisable cryptic species living at low densities, such as large felids. Often these estimates are the only information available to guide wildlife managers and conservation policy. Capture probability of the target species using camera traps is commonly heterogeneous and low. Published studies often report overall capture probabilities as low as 0.03 and fail to report on the level of heterogeneity in capture probability. We used simulations to study the effects of low and heterogeneous capture probability on the reliability of abundance estimates using the Mh jack-knife estimator within a closed-population capture-recapture framework. High heterogeneity in capture probability was associated with under- and over-estimates of true abundance. The use of biased abundance estimates could have serious conservation management consequences. We recommend that studies present capture frequencies of all sampled individuals so that policy makers can assess the reliability of the abundance estimates.  相似文献   

9.
Conservation and management agencies require accurate and precise estimates of abundance when considering the status of a species and the need for directed actions. Due to the proliferation of remote sampling cameras, there has been an increase in capture–recapture studies that estimate the abundance of rare and/or elusive species using closed capture–recapture estimators (C–R). However, data from these studies often do not meet necessary statistical assumptions. Common attributes of these data are (1) infrequent detections, (2) a small number of individuals detected, (3) long survey durations, and (4) variability in detection among individuals. We believe there is a need for guidance when analyzing this type of sparse data. We highlight statistical limitations of closed C–R estimators when data are sparse and suggest an alternative approach over the conventional use of the Jackknife estimator. Our approach aims to maximize the probability individuals are detected at least once over the entire sampling period, thus making the modeling of variability in the detection process irrelevant, estimating abundance accurately and precisely. We use simulations to demonstrate when using the unconditional-likelihood M 0 (constant detection probability) closed C–R estimator with profile-likelihood confidence intervals provides reliable results even when detection varies by individual. If each individual in the population is detected on average of at least 2.5 times, abundance estimates are accurate and precise. When studies sample the same species at multiple areas or at the same area over time, we suggest sharing detection information across datasets to increase precision when estimating abundance. The approach suggested here should be useful for monitoring small populations of species that are difficult to detect.  相似文献   

10.
Many animals produce multiple types of breeding vocalizations that, together, constitute a vocal repertoire. In some species, the size of an individual’s repertoire is important because it correlates with brain size, territory size or social behaviour. Quantifying repertoire size is challenging because the long recordings needed to sample a repertoire comprehensively are difficult to obtain and analyse. The most basic quantification technique is simple enumeration, where one counts unique vocalization types until no new types are detected. Alternative techniques estimate repertoire size from subsamples, but these techniques are useful only if they are accurate. Using 12 years of acoustic data from a population of rufous-and-white wrens in Costa Rica, we used simple enumeration to measure the repertoire size for 40 males. We then compared these to the estimates generated by three estimation techniques: curve fitting, capture–recapture and a new technique based on the coupon collector’s problem. To understand how sampling effort affects the accuracy and precision of estimates, we applied each technique to six different-sized subsets of data per male. When averaged across subset sizes, the capture–recapture and coupon collector techniques showed the highest accuracy, whereas the curve fitting technique underestimated repertoire size. Precision (the average absolute difference between the estimated and true repertoire size) was significantly better for the capture–recapture technique than the coupon collector and curve fitting techniques. Both accuracy and precision improved as subset size increased. We conclude that capture–recapture is the best technique for estimating the sizes of small repertoires.  相似文献   

11.
We examine the extent to which the assumptions underlying line transect sampling are satisfied in shipboard surveys of crabeater seals ( Lobodon carcinophaga ) hauled out on the Antarctic pack-ice. Measurement of the perpendicular distance of seal groups from the ship with an electronic inclinometer fitted to a rifle stock was unbiased. Crabeater seals showed little movement in response to the approaching ship. Movement away from the ship by seals close to the ship's track was partially responsible for a relative lack of sightings close to the transect-line, but otherwise had little effect on the sighting histogram. Minor deviations from the transect direction to avoid running over seals violated the assumption of uniform distribution of groups, and contributed to a relative lack in sightings close to (<40 m) the transect-line. We estimate that 5%-10% of seal groups close to the transect-line were not sighted by bridge observers prior to passing abeam of the ship, but most of these missed groups were likely to have been sighted some distance behind-abeam. Shipboard transects provided a biased sample of four environmental features known to be related to crabeater seal abundance because of logistical difficulties in the ship traversing along straight transects through thick ice. Calculation of transect length L from successive GPS locations was mildly sensitive to the frequency of locations. We provide analytical recommendations to reduce or eliminate the effect of assumption violation when present and hence minimize bias in abundance estimation.  相似文献   

12.
Abstract We examined 11 non‐linear regression models to determine which of them best fitted curvilinear species accumulation curves based on pit‐trapping data for reptiles in a range of heterogeneous and homogenous sites in mesic, semi‐arid and arid regions of Western Australia. A well‐defined plateau in a species accumulation curve is required for any of the models accurately to estimate species richness. Two different measures of effort (pit‐trapping days and number of individuals caught) were used to determine if the measure of effort influenced the choice of the best model(s). We used species accumulation curves to predict species richness, determined the trapping effort required to catch a nominated percentage (e.g. 95%) of the predicted number of species in an area, and examined the relationship between species accumulation curves with diversity and rarity. Species richness, diversity and the proportion of rare species in a community influenced the shape of species accumulation curves. The Beta‐P model provided the best overall fit (highest r2) for heterogeneous and homogeneous sites. For heterogeneous sites, Hill, Rational, Clench, Exponential and Weibull models were the next best. For homogeneous habitats, Hill, Weibull and Chapman–Richards were the next best models. There was very little difference between Beta‐P and Hill models in fitting the data to accumulation curves, although the Hill model generally over‐estimated species richness. Most models worked equally well for both measures of trapping effort. Because the number of individuals caught was influenced by both pit‐trapping effort and the abundance of individuals, both measures of effort must be considered if species accumulation curves are to be used as a planning tool. Trapping effort to catch a nominated percentage of the total predicted species in homogeneous and heterogeneous habitats varied among sites, but even for only 75% of the predicted number of species it was generally much higher than the typical effort currently being used for terrestrial vertebrate fauna surveys in Australia. It was not possible to provide a general indication of the effort required to predict species richness for a site, or to capture a nominated proportion of species at a site, because species accumulation curves are heavily influenced by the characteristics of particular sites.  相似文献   

13.
Wildlife populations consist of individuals that contribute disproportionately to growth and viability. Understanding a population's spatial and temporal dynamics requires estimates of abundance and demographic rates that account for this heterogeneity. Estimating these quantities can be difficult, requiring years of intensive data collection. Often, this is accomplished through the capture and recapture of individual animals, which is generally only feasible at a limited number of locations. In contrast, N‐mixture models allow for the estimation of abundance, and spatial variation in abundance, from count data alone. We extend recently developed multistate, open population N‐mixture models, which can additionally estimate demographic rates based on an organism's life history characteristics. In our extension, we develop an approach to account for the case where not all individuals can be assigned to a state during sampling. Using only state‐specific count data, we show how our model can be used to estimate local population abundance, as well as density‐dependent recruitment rates and state‐specific survival. We apply our model to a population of black‐throated blue warblers (Setophaga caerulescens) that have been surveyed for 25 years on their breeding grounds at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in New Hampshire, USA. The intensive data collection efforts allow us to compare our estimates to estimates derived from capture–recapture data. Our model performed well in estimating population abundance and density‐dependent rates of annual recruitment/immigration. Estimates of local carrying capacity and per capita recruitment of yearlings were consistent with those published in other studies. However, our model moderately underestimated annual survival probability of yearling and adult females and severely underestimates survival probabilities for both of these male stages. The most accurate and precise estimates will necessarily require some amount of intensive data collection efforts (such as capture–recapture). Integrated population models that combine data from both intensive and extensive sources are likely to be the most efficient approach for estimating demographic rates at large spatial and temporal scales.  相似文献   

14.
Diversity estimates play a key role in ecological assessments. Species richness and abundance are commonly used to generate complex diversity indices that are dependent on the quality of these estimates. As such, there is a long‐standing interest in the development of monitoring techniques, their ability to adequately assess species diversity, and the implications for generated indices. To determine the ability of substratum community assessment methods to capture species diversity, we evaluated four methods: photo quadrat, point intercept, random subsampling, and full quadrat assessments. Species density, abundance, richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity were then calculated for each method. We then conducted a method validation at a subset of locations to serve as an indication for how well each method captured the totality of the diversity present. Density, richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity estimates varied between methods, despite assessments occurring at the same locations, with photo quadrats detecting the lowest estimates and full quadrat assessments the highest. Abundance estimates were consistent among methods. Sample‐based rarefaction and extrapolation curves indicated that differences between Hill numbers (richness, Shannon diversity, and Simpson diversity) were significant in the majority of cases, and coverage‐based rarefaction and extrapolation curves confirmed that these dissimilarities were due to differences between the methods, not the sample completeness. Method validation highlighted the inability of the tested methods to capture the totality of the diversity present, while further supporting the notion of extrapolating abundances. Our results highlight the need for consistency across research methods, the advantages of utilizing multiple diversity indices, and potential concerns and considerations when comparing data from multiple sources.  相似文献   

15.
Independent observer teams made concurrent counts of Irrawaddy dolphins Orcaella brevirostris and Ganges River dolphins Platanista gangetica gangetica in mangrove channels of the Sundarbans Delta in Bangladesh. These counts were corrected for missed groups using mark-recapture models. For Irrawaddy dolphins, a stratified Lincoln-Petersen model, which incorporated group size and sighting conditions as covariates, and a Huggins conditional likelihood model, which averaged models that individually incorporated group size, sighting conditions, and channel width as covariates, generated abundance estimates of 397 individuals (CV = 10.2%) and 451 individuals (CV = 9.6%), respectively. For Ganges River dolphins, a stratified Lincoln-Petersen model, which incorporated group size as a covariate, and a Huggins conditional likelihood model, which averaged the same models described above, generated abundance estimates of 196 individuals (CV = 12.7%) and 225 individuals (CV = 12.6%), respectively. Although the estimates for both models were relatively close, the analytical advantages of the Huggins models probably outweigh those of the Lincoln-Petersen models. However, the latter should be considered appropriate when simplicity is a priority. This study found that waterways of the Sundarbans support significant numbers of Irrawaddy and Ganges River dolphins, especially compared to other areas where the species have been surveyed.  相似文献   

16.
17.
The carrying capacity of the French Frigate Shoals (FFS) region for the endangered Hawaiian monk seal was appraised using an updated version of the original FFS Ecopath model ( Polovina 1984 ). Model parameters were updated using recent literature, and data from surveys of the seal population and its bottom‐associated prey. Together they produced a static mass balance model for 1998 when the prey surveys began. The Ecopath‐estimated monk seal biomass was 0.0045 t/km2, which was in close agreement with the biomass calculated from monk seal field beach counts (0.0046 t/km2). Model simulations through time were done in Ecosim using the Ecopath balanced model and included fisheries data time series from 1998 to 2008. Monk seal biomass declined concurrently with decreases in benthic bottomfish biomass, which were influenced by large‐scale changes in the environment of the North Pacific. This model scenario was extended from 2010, when the last permitted fishery in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands was closed, through to 2040, assuming a constant environmental signal. Model results for this time period did not show a recovery of monk seals that exceeded the initial 1998 model biomass levels, highlighting the importance of including environmental variability in estimates of monk seals recovery at FFS.  相似文献   

18.
Among the priority actions identified for saving the critically endangered Mediterranean monk seal are gaining basic biological information on movements and behavior, and rescuing and rehabilitating wounded, stranded, and orphaned pups. On 22 May 2004 a rehabilitated monk seal juvenile was fitted with a satellite tag, released in the National Marine Park of Alonnisos, Northern Sporades, Greece, and monitored for 167 d. Postrelease, the seal remained close to the islands of the park and within the 200-m isobath. Throughout the monitoring period, the seal reduced time hauled out, while 95-percentile dive duration and depth gradually increased. The overall maximum depth of 123 m recorded in this study is the greatest depth ever recorded for the species. These results confirm the effectiveness of the rehabilitation program carried out on the particular animal and provide additional support for the continuation of the rehabilitation program as a conservation measure for the species. We demonstrate that satellite tracking of rehabilitated seals is a valuable research and conservation tool, even for a species that commonly uses shoreline caves for resting, molting, and parturition.  相似文献   

19.
Abstract: Reliable assessments of large mammal population sizes are crucial for the management of protected areas. We tested feasibility of foot surveys for population assessments of large mammals in western Tanzanian woodland, comparing estimates of herbivore densities from line-transect data from a National Park with those from an adjacent Game Reserve (GR). We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) and Global Positioning System—supported field design, consisting of systematically distributed closed-circuit transects, and recorded sighting distances and angles. Total survey effort was 1,032 km, conducted within the dry season. We fitted detection functions to distance data with the help of DISTANCE 4.1, using the 3 habitat categories woodland, grassland, and swamp as covariates for detection probability. We found estimates of density and abundance to be reliable for 19 out of 20 larger mammalian herbivores and found significant differences in density between the Park and the GR for 5 species, of which 4 had a higher density in the Park and one had a higher density in the GR. Our results show that, using GIS support and modern navigation methods, foot-transect surveys can be effective in providing accurate data on woodland herbivore populations even in large study areas. (JOURNAL OF WILDLIFE MANAGEMENT 72(3):603–610; 2008)  相似文献   

20.
Population density data on depleted and endangered wildlife species are essential to assure their effective management and, ultimately, conservation. The European wildcat is an elusive and threatened species inhabiting the Iberian Peninsula, with fragmented populations and living in low densities. We fitted spatial capture–recapture models on camera-trap data, to provide the first estimate of wildcat density for Portugal and assess the most influential drivers determining it. The study was implemented in Montesinho Natural Park (NE Portugal), where we identified nine individuals, over a total effort of 3,477 trap-nights. The mean density estimate was 0.032 ± 0.012 wildcat/km2, and density tended to increase with distance to humanized areas, often linked to lower human disturbance and domestic cat presence, with forest and herbaceous vegetation cover and with European rabbit abundance. Although, this density estimate is within the range of values estimated for protected areas elsewhere in the Iberian Peninsula, our estimates are low at the European level. When put in context, our results highlight that European wildcats may be living in low population densities across the Iberian Mediterranean biogeographic region. No phenotypic domestic or hybrid cats were detected, suggesting potentially low admixture rates between the two species, although genetic sampling would be required to corroborate this assertion. We provide evidence that Montesinho Natural Park may be a suitable area to host a healthy wildcat population, and thus be an important protected area in this species' conservation context.  相似文献   

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