The influence of survey frequency on population estimates of moorland breeding birds

Capsule A minimum of four constant‐effort‐search survey visits are required to generate reliable population estimates of breeding birds on moorland that are not subject to biases associated with varying levels of detectability through the season.

Aims To investigate the influence of the number and the combination of survey visits on the population estimates of breeding birds on moorland.

Methods Four constant‐effort‐search surveys (80–100 minutes per km² per visit) of moorland in southwest Scotland were undertaken in each of six years, 2003–2008. Using standard protocols, the numbers of apparent territories that would have been identified for each possible combination of survey visits were determined.glms were used to assess the influence of the frequency of survey visits, and different combination scenarios on the derived population estimates for Red Grouse, European Golden Plover, Common Snipe, Eurasian Curlew, Sky Lark, Winter Wren and Stonechat. Independent assessments of population density were made by transect sampling for Red Grouse and Sky Lark.

Results Robust population estimates were possible from three survey visits for European Golden Plover, Eurasian Curlew and Stonechat. However, there were differences between species in the seasonal variation of their detectability. Four survey visits would underestimate the populations of Red Grouse (probably by 67–91%), Sky Lark (probably by 31–61%) and Winter Wren (by an undetermined proportion). Common Snipe were also likely to be underestimated after four survey visits, but the value of the derived estimate as an index of population density deserves further investigation.

Conclusions If there is a need to carry out a multi‐species survey on moorland, we suggest that a minimum of four survey visits is required to ensure the derivation of reliable population estimates for a suite of the most readily detectable species. Population estimates derived from three or fewer survey visits risk biases through uneven sampling in periods of differing detectability. With evidence for changes in the breeding phenology of birds associated with changing climate or weather patterns, it arguably becomes more important to ensure that surveys sample an adequately broad period of the breeding season.     

Synergistic effect of low K and D vitamin status on arterial stiffness in a general population

Both vitamins K and D are nutrients with pleiotropic functions in human tissues. The metabolic role of these vitamins overlaps considerably in calcium homeostasis. We analyzed their potential synergetic effect on arterial stiffness. In a cross-sectional study, we analyzed aortic pulse wave velocity (aPWV) in 1023 subjects from the Czech post-MONICA study. Desphospho-uncarboxylated matrix γ-carboxyglutamate protein (dp-ucMGP), a biomarker of vitamin K status, was measured by sandwich ELISA and 25-hydroxyvitamin D₃ (25-OH-D₃) by a commercial immunochemical assay. In a subsample of 431 subjects without chronic disease or pharmacotherapy, we detected rs2228570 polymorphism for the vitamin D receptor. After adjustment for confounders, aPWV was independently associated with both factors: dp-ucMGP [β-coefficient(S.E.M.) = 13.91(4.87); P=.004] and 25-OH-D₃ [0.624(0.28); P=.027]. In a further analysis, we divided subjects according to dp-ucMGP and 25-OH-D₃ quartiles, resulting in 16 subgroups. The highest aPWV had subjects in the top quartile of dp-ucMGP plus bottom quartile of 25-OH-D₃ (i.e., in those with insufficient status of both vitamin K and vitamin D), while the lowest aPVW had subjects in the bottom quartile of dp-ucMGP plus top quartile of 25-OH-D₃ [9.8 (SD2.6) versus 6.6 (SD1.6) m/s; P<.0001]. When we compared these extreme groups of vitamin K and D status, the adjusted odds ratio for aPWV≥9.3 m/s was 6.83 (95% CI:1.95–20.9). The aPWV was also significantly higher among subjects bearing the GG genotype of rs2228570, but only in those with a concomitantly poor vitamin K status. In conclusion, we confirmed substantial interaction of insufficient K and D vitamin status in terms of increased aortic stiffness.     

Impact of dispersal status on estimates of local population growth rates in a Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population

Due to different costs and benefits associated with dispersal and philopatry, life history traits of immigrants and philopatric individuals may differ. Despite of the apparent effects, dispersal status is only rarely considered in analyses of population dynamics. We analysed whether dispersal status explains variation in life history traits of an endangered Temminck's stint Calidris temminckii population breeding at the Baltic Sea. We also estimated the impact of immigration and dispersal status on the population growth rate (λ) with a population matrix model, in which immigrants and philopatric individuals are separated to their own stages. We found that philopatric individuals had a higher apparent survival than immigrants in both sexes. In reproductive parameters, variation due to dispersal status was not clear. Nests incubated by philopatric individuals survived better than those of immigrants, but this did not translate in hatchling production per breeding attempt. Models described a sink population in which the inclusion of both immigration rate to the population and the dispersal status of individuals into the model increased estimates of λ. When the better success of philopatric individuals was considered, the population growth appeared more stable (λ=0.972). If this was not taken into account, λ implied a strong decline (λ=0.911). The results support the hypothesis that immigrants exhibit lower components of lifetime reproductive success and therefore contribute less to population growth and the gene pool than local recruits. While we cannot distinguish whether this difference reflects higher mortality or permanent emigration, the latter explanation seems more plausible. Our results highlight the importance of considering immigration and dispersal status in population modelling. In the case of the endangered study population, the results implied that management options directed to improve local recruitment would be a profitable option.     

The effect of moderate alcohol consumption on fat distribution and adipocytokines

Objective: To investigate the effect of moderate alcohol consumption on fat distribution, adipose tissue secreted proteins (adiponectin and resistin), and insulin sensitivity in healthy middle‐aged men with abdominal obesity. Research Methods and Procedures: Thirty‐four healthy men between 35 and 70 years old, with increased waist circumference (≥94 cm), participated in a randomized, controlled cross‐over design trial. They drank 450 mL of red wine (40 grams of alcohol) or 450 mL of de‐alcoholized red wine daily during 4 weeks. At the end of each treatment period, fat distribution, adipose tissue proteins, and insulin sensitivity index (ISI) were measured. Results: Subcutaneous and abdominal fat contents and body weight did not change after 4 weeks of moderate alcohol consumption. Liver fat (quip index) was slightly higher after consumption of red wine (6.8 ± 0.1) as compared with de‐alcoholized red wine (6.5 ± 0.1) but not significantly different (p = 0.09). Plasma adiponectin concentration increased (p < 0.01) to 6.0 ± 0.1 μg/mL after 28 days of moderate alcohol consumption compared with de‐alcoholized red wine (5.5 ± 0.1 μg/mL). Serum resistin concentrations and ISI were not affected by alcohol consumption. Percentage changes in serum resistin correlated significantly with changes in ISI (r = ?0.69, p < 0.01), whereas this correlation was not present between changes in plasma adiponectin and ISI (r = 0.31, p = 0.22). Discussion: Moderate alcohol consumption for 4 weeks is not associated with differences in subcutaneous and abdominal fat contents or body weight. Thus, the 10% increase in adiponectin was not associated with a change in fat distribution or body weight change.     

The effect of suspended clay on ciliate population growth rates

• 1 Renewed batch cultures of three algivorous and one bacterivorous ciliate showed that ciliate reproductive rates increase with increasing food concentration up to an asymptote. Maximum r_m values for Strobilidium gyrans, Bursaridium difficile and Euplotes eurystomus feeding on the cryptomonad alga Rhodomonas minuta were 0.87, 0.86 and 0.45 day-¹, respectively, while Paramecium aurelia feeding on the bacterium Enterobactor aerogenes had an r_m of 0.40 day-¹. B. difficile had a food threshold (r_m= 0) of 0.38 μg Cml-¹ and P. aurelia had a threshold of 1.6μg Cml-¹.
• 2 The presence of suspended fine (particle size <1 μm) and coarse (particle size 1–2μm) clay suppressed the half maximum reproductive rate of the ciliate Strobilidium gyrans by up to 69% but had no effect on B. difficile, E. eurystomus or P. aurelia. Populations of ciliates unaffected by clay may be released in situations where suspended particles negatively affect their metazooplankton predators and competitors.

     

The effect of chronic alcohol consumption on mitochondrial DNA mutagenesis in human blood

The 4977bp deletion of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is known to accumulate with increasing age in post mitotic tissues. Recently, studies came out detecting this specific alteration also in fast replicating cells, e.g. in blood or skin tissue, often in correlation to specific diseases or -- specifically in skin -- external stressors such as UV radiation. In this study, we investigated mitochondrial mutagenesis in 69 patients with a chronic alcoholic disease and 46 age matched controls with a moderate drinking behavior. Two different fragments, specific for total and for deleted mtDNA (dmtDNA) were amplified in a duplex-PCR. A subsequent fragment analysis was performed and for relative quantification, the quotient of the peak areas of amplification products specific for deleted and total mtDNA was determined. Additionally, a real time PCR was performed to quantify mtDNA copy number. The relative amount of 4977bp deleted mtDNA in alcoholics was significantly increased compared to controls. On the other hand, no difference regarding the mtDNA/nuclear DNA ratio in both investigated groups was detected. Additionally, no age dependence could be found nor in alcoholics, neither in the control group. These findings indicate that mtDNA mutagenesis in blood can be influenced by stressors such as alcohol. Ethanol seems to be a significant factor to alter mitochondrial DNA in blood and might be an additional contributor for the cellular aging process.     

Dung survey bias and elephant population estimates in southern Mozambique

We used dung surveys to estimate population size and extracted an age structure from boli diameters for the elephants living in the Maputo Elephant Reserve. Our estimate was based on published defecation rates, dung decay rates, distance-sampling techniques and 1,672 dung piles encountered on 204 line-transects. The reserve had at least 311 (95% CI: 198–490) elephants at a density of 0.60 (95% CI: 0.38–0.94) per km². However, observer bias reduced effective strip widths and inflated estimates and their confidence limits. The age structure extrapolated from dung measurements indicated few newborn calves compared with other populations. To detect population changes of 2–5% at 80% power, dung surveys should be carried out every second year for the next 20 years using 100 transects of at least 500 m each. Comparison with a 1995 dung survey suggests that the population is stable and that previous fears of a major population decline during the civil war have no foundation.     

Effects of sample size on estimates of population growth rates calculated with matrix models

Background

Matrix models are widely used to study the dynamics and demography of populations. An important but overlooked issue is how the number of individuals sampled influences estimates of the population growth rate (λ) calculated with matrix models. Even unbiased estimates of vital rates do not ensure unbiased estimates of λ–Jensen''s Inequality implies that even when the estimates of the vital rates are accurate, small sample sizes lead to biased estimates of λ due to increased sampling variance. We investigated if sampling variability and the distribution of sampling effort among size classes lead to biases in estimates of λ.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Using data from a long-term field study of plant demography, we simulated the effects of sampling variance by drawing vital rates and calculating λ for increasingly larger populations drawn from a total population of 3842 plants. We then compared these estimates of λ with those based on the entire population and calculated the resulting bias. Finally, we conducted a review of the literature to determine the sample sizes typically used when parameterizing matrix models used to study plant demography.

Conclusions/Significance

We found significant bias at small sample sizes when survival was low (survival = 0.5), and that sampling with a more-realistic inverse J-shaped population structure exacerbated this bias. However our simulations also demonstrate that these biases rapidly become negligible with increasing sample sizes or as survival increases. For many of the sample sizes used in demographic studies, matrix models are probably robust to the biases resulting from sampling variance of vital rates. However, this conclusion may depend on the structure of populations or the distribution of sampling effort in ways that are unexplored. We suggest more intensive sampling of populations when individual survival is low and greater sampling of stages with high elasticities.     

Differential effects of pre and post-payment on neurologists' response rates to a postal survey

Background  

Monetary incentives are an effective way of increasing response rates to surveys, though they are generally less effective in physicians, and are more effective when the incentive is paid up-front rather than when made conditional on completion.     

The genetics of alcohol consumption in animals

Abstract

This paper reviews animal studies of genetic differences in the consumption of alcohol. It deals with six areas: (1) field observations in nature; (2) selective breeding; (3) variation among inbred strains; (4) correlates of ethanol preference and avoidance; (5) consumption and sensitivity; and (6) a test of an ethanol intake control system. Because of space constraints it is selective rather than exhaustive. The results of experiments demonstrate that genes have a strong effect on alcohol consumption when animals are given a choice of liquids. Both preabsorptive and postabsorptive factors can modify intake. There are similarities in factors that affect alcohol consumption in animals and those believed to be operative in humans. Evidence for an ethanol intake control system is presented.     

The effect of a knee support on the biomechanical response of the low back

Stooping and squatting postures are seen in a number of industries (e.g., agriculture, construction) where workers must work near ground level for extended periods of time. The focus of the current research was to evaluate a knee support device designed to reduce the biomechanical loading of these postures. Ten participants performed a series of sudden loading tasks while in a semisquat posture under two conditions of knee support (no support and fully supported) and two conditions of torso flexion (45 and 60 degrees ). A weight was released into the hands of the participants who then came to steady state while maintaining the designated posture. As they performed this task, the EMG responses of the trunk extensors (multifidus and erector spinae) were collected, both during the "sudden loading" phase of the trial as well as the steady weight-holding phase of the trial. As expected, the effects of torso flexion angle showed significant decreases in the activation of the multifidus muscles with greater torso angle (indicating the initiation of the flexion-relaxation response). Interestingly, the results showed that the knee support device had no effect on the activation levels of the sampled muscles, indicating that the loss of the degree of freedom from the ankle joint during the knee support condition had no impact on trunk extensor muscle response. The a priori concern with regard to these supports was that they would tend to focus loading on the low back and therefore would not serve as a potential ergonomic solution for these stooping/semisquatting tasks. Because the results of this study did not support this concern, further development of such an intervention is underway.     

Socioeconomic determinants of rates of consultation in general practice based on fourth national morbidity survey of general practices.

OBJECTIVE--To identify the socioeconomic determinants of consultation rates in general practice. DESIGN--Analysis of data from the fourth national morbidity survey of general practices (MSGP4) including sociodemographic details of individual patients and small area statistics from the 1991 census. Multilevel modelling techniques were used to take account of both individual patient data and small area statistics to relate socioeconomic and health status factors directly to a measure of general practitioner workload. RESULTS--Higher rates of consultations were found in patients who were classified as permanently sick, unemployed (especially those who became unemployed during the study year), living in rented accommodation, from the Indian subcontinent, living with a spouse or partner (women only), children living with two parents (girls only), and living in urban areas, especially those living relatively near the practice. When characteristics of individual patients are known and controlled for the role of "indices of deprivation" is considerably reduced. The effect of individual sociodemographic characteristics were shown to vary between different areas. CONCLUSIONS--Demographic and socioeconomic factors can act as powerful predictors of consultation patterns. Though it will always be necessary to retain some local planning discretion, the sets of coefficients estimated for individual level factors, area level characteristics, and for practice groupings may be sufficient to provide an indicative level of demand for general medical services. Although the problems in using socioeconomic data from individual patients would be substantial, these results are relevant to the development of a resource allocation formula for general practice.     

Uncertainty in population growth rates: determining confidence intervals from point estimates of parameters

Background

Demographic models are widely used in conservation and management, and their parameterisation often relies on data collected for other purposes. When underlying data lack clear indications of associated uncertainty, modellers often fail to account for that uncertainty in model outputs, such as estimates of population growth.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We applied a likelihood approach to infer uncertainty retrospectively from point estimates of vital rates. Combining this with resampling techniques and projection modelling, we show that confidence intervals for population growth estimates are easy to derive. We used similar techniques to examine the effects of sample size on uncertainty. Our approach is illustrated using data on the red fox, Vulpes vulpes, a predator of ecological and cultural importance, and the most widespread extant terrestrial mammal. We show that uncertainty surrounding estimated population growth rates can be high, even for relatively well-studied populations. Halving that uncertainty typically requires a quadrupling of sampling effort.

Conclusions/Significance

Our results compel caution when comparing demographic trends between populations without accounting for uncertainty. Our methods will be widely applicable to demographic studies of many species.     

Estimation of fish consumption rates based on a creel angler survey of an urban river in New Jersey,USA

Abstract

A one-year angler intercept survey was conducted on the lower 17 miles of the Passaic River, an urban industrialized river that flows through Newark, New Jersey. The purpose of the survey was to collect data about anglers’ behaviors and fish consumption habits in order to calculate exposure factors for a human health risk assessment of the Study Area. This paper focuses on estimating site-specific fish consumption rates for LPRSA anglers that consume their catch. The study design included on-site interviews and counts (angler enumeration). Forty survey locations were included in the stratified random sampling plan; interviews were conducted on 136 days and counts on 164 days. After matching intercepts with the same angler, a total of 294 anglers were interviewed, of which 25 reported consuming their catch. LPRSA fishing trips ranged from 2 to nearly 50 annual trips for anglers who reported consuming their catch. Species caught and reported to be consumed included carp, catfish, white perch, smallmouth bass, and eel. The estimated mean and 90th percentile consumption rates for the population of consuming anglers are 5.0 and 8.8?g/day, respectively. Based on sensitivity analyses, the 90th percentile fish consumption rates range from approximately 4 to 18?g/day.