Simulating climate change impacts on fire frequency and vegetation dynamics in a Mediterranean-type ecosystem

The impacts of climate change on Mediterranean‐type ecosystems may result from complex interactions between direct effects on water stress and subsequent modifications in flammability and fire regime leading to changes in standing biomass and plant species composition. We analysed these interrelations through a simulation approach combining scenarios of climate change developed from GCM results and a multispecies functional model for vegetation dynamics, SIERRA. A fire risk procedure based on weekly estimates of vegetation water stress has been implemented. Using climate data from 1960 to 1997, simulations of a typical maquis woodland community have been performed as baseline and compared with two climate scenarios: a change in the rainfall regime alone, and changes in both rainfall and air temperature. Climate changes are defined by an increase in temperature, particularly in summer, and a change in the rainfall pattern leading to a decrease in low rainfall events, and an increase in intense rainfall events. The results illustrate the lack of drastic changes in the succession process, but highlight modifications in the water budget and in the length of the drought periods. Water stress lower than expected regarding statistics on the current climate is simulated, emphasizing a long‐term new equilibrium of vegetation to summer drought but with a higher sensibility to rare events. Regarding fire frequency, climate changes tend to decrease the time interval between two successive fires from 20 to 16 years for the maquis shrubland and from 72 to 62 years in the forested stages. This increase in fire frequency leads to shrub‐dominated landscapes, which accentuates the yield of water by additional deep drainage and runoff.     

Different responses of multispecies tree ring growth to various drought indices across Europe

Increasing frequency and intensity of drought extremes associated with global change are a key challenge for forest ecosystems. Consequently, the quantification of drought effects on tree growth as a measure of vitality is of highest concern from the perspectives of both science and management. To date, a multitude of drought indices have been used to accompany or replace primary climatic variables in the analysis of drought-related growth responses. However, it remains unclear how individual drought metrics compare to each other in terms of their ability to capture drought signals in tree growth.In our study, we employ a European multispecies tree ring network at the continental scale and a set of four commonly used drought indices (De Martonne Aridity Index, self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index, Standardized Precipitation Index and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index, the latter two on varying temporal scales) to derive species-specific growth responses to drought conditions. For nine common European tree species, we demonstrate spatio-temporal matches and mismatches of tree growth with drought indices subject to species, elevation and bioclimatic zone. Forests located in the temperate and Mediterranean climate were drought sensitive and tended to respond to short- and intermediate-term drought (<1 year). In continental climates, forests were comparably more drought resistant and responded to long-term drought. For the same species, stands were less drought sensitive at higher elevations compared to lower elevations. We provide detailed information on the month-wise performance of the four drought indices in different climate zones allowing users the selection of the most appropriate index according to their objective criteria. Our results show that species-specific differences in responses to multiple stressors result in complex, yet coherent patterns of tree growth.     

Effects of Drought,Pest Pressure and Light Availability on Seedling Establishment and Growth: Their Role for Distribution of Tree Species across a Tropical Rainfall Gradient

Tree species distributions associated with rainfall are among the most prominent patterns in tropical forests. Understanding the mechanisms shaping these patterns is important to project impacts of global climate change on tree distributions and diversity in the tropics. Beside direct effects of water availability, additional factors co-varying with rainfall have been hypothesized to play an important role, including pest pressure and light availability. While low water availability is expected to exclude drought-intolerant wet forest species from drier forests (physiological tolerance hypothesis), high pest pressure or low light availability are hypothesized to exclude dry forest species from wetter forests (pest pressure gradient and light availability hypothesis, respectively). To test these hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition, the potentially most critical stage for species discrimination, we conducted a reciprocal transplant experiment combined with a pest exclosure treatment at a wet and a dry forest site in Panama with seeds of 26 species with contrasting origin. Establishment success after one year did not reflect species distribution patterns. However, in the wet forest, wet origin species had a home advantage over dry forest species through higher growth rates. At the same time, drought limited survival of wet origin species in the dry forest, supporting the physiological tolerance hypothesis. Together these processes sort species over longer time frames, and exclude species outside their respective home range. Although we found pronounced effects of pests and some effects of light availability on the seedlings, they did not corroborate the pest pressure nor light availability hypotheses at the seed-to-seedling transition. Our results underline that changes in water availability due to climate change will have direct consequences on tree regeneration and distributions along tropical rainfall gradients, while indirect effects of light and pests are less important.     

Rapid warming accelerates tree growth decline in semi‐arid forests of Inner Asia

Forests around the world are subject to risk of high rates of tree growth decline and increased tree mortality from combinations of climate warming and drought, notably in semi‐arid settings. Here, we assess how climate warming has affected tree growth in one of the world's most extensive zones of semi‐arid forests, in Inner Asia, a region where lack of data limits our understanding of how climate change may impact forests. We show that pervasive tree growth declines since 1994 in Inner Asia have been confined to semi‐arid forests, where growing season water stress has been rising due to warming‐induced increases in atmospheric moisture demand. A causal link between increasing drought and declining growth at semi‐arid sites is corroborated by correlation analyses comparing annual climate data to records of tree‐ring widths. These ring‐width records tend to be substantially more sensitive to drought variability at semi‐arid sites than at semi‐humid sites. Fire occurrence and insect/pathogen attacks have increased in tandem with the most recent (2007–2009) documented episode of tree mortality. If warming in Inner Asia continues, further increases in forest stress and tree mortality could be expected, potentially driving the eventual regional loss of current semi‐arid forests.     

Growth phenological variations in the narrow-leaved ash (Fraxinus angustifolia) over the Mediterranean region: A simulation study

Tree species inhabiting riparian forests under Mediterranean climate have evolved to face summer water shortage but may fail to cope with future increases in drought severity. Thus, understanding tree growth phenological variations in response to environmental conditions is necessary to assess the impact of seasonal drought in riparian forests. In this study, we investigated the response of stem radial growth to climate in the narrow-leaved ash (Fraxinus angustifolia) over its distribution in southern Europe. We simulated intra- and inter-annual growth patterns using the Vaganov-Shashkin (VS) model considering five sites subjected to summer drought but showing different climate conditions. The growth pattern in this species varied from unimodal in cool-wet sites to facultative bimodal in warm-dry sites. Bimodal patterns were characterized by two growth peaks coinciding with favorable climate conditions in spring and autumn. The spring growth peak occurs earlier (May) in warm-dry sites than in wet-cool sites (June–July). The variation in the season growth length and growth timing suggests different strategies adopted by this species to cope with summer drought. The VS model revealed different growth patterns across which would be relevant in predicting the response of this and other riparian tree species to climate warming and aridification. Differences in the length of the growing season, timings of growth peaks and the shift from unimodal to bimodal growth patterns should be considered when assessing growth adjustments to future climate scenarios.     

Tree diversity mitigates defoliation after a drought‐induced tipping point

Understanding the processes that underlie drought‐related tree vitality loss is essential for anticipating future forest dynamics, and for developing management plans aiming at increasing the resilience of forests to climate change. Forest vitality has been continuously monitored in Europe since the acid rain alert in the 1980s, and the intensive monitoring plots of ICP Forests offer the opportunity to investigate the effects of air pollution and climate change on forest condition. By making use of over 100 long‐term monitoring plots, where crown defoliation has been assessed extensively since 1990, we discovered a progressive shift from a negative to a positive effect of species richness on forest health. The observed tipping point in the balance of net interactions, from competition to facilitation, has never been reported from real ecosystems outside experimental conditions; and the strong temporal consistency of our observations with increasing drought stress emphasizes its climate change relevance. Furthermore, we show that higher species diversity has reduced the severity of defoliation in the long term. Our results confirm the greater resilience of diverse forests to future climate change‐induced stress. More generally, they add to an accumulating body of evidence on the large potential of tree species mixtures to face manifold disturbances in a changing world.     

Plastic bimodal growth in a Mediterranean mixed-forest of Quercus ilex and Pinus halepensis

Mediterranean tree species have evolved to face seasonal water shortages, but may fail to cope with future increases in drought frequency and intensity. We investigated stem radial increment dynamics in two typical Mediterranean tree species, Aleppo pine (Pinus halepensis), a drought-avoiding species, and holm oak (Quercus ilex), a drought-tolerant species, in a mixed forest and on contrasting slope aspects (south- and north-facing). Intra- and inter-annual growth patterns were modelled using the VS-Lite2 model for each tree species and slope-aspect. Both species showed a bimodal growth pattern, with peaks coinciding with favourable conditions in spring and autumn. A bimodal growth pattern is always observed in P. halepensis, while in Q. ilex is facultative, which suggests different strategies adopted by these species to cope with summer drought. More specifically, trees on south-facing slope showed a more evident bimodal pattern and more intra-annual density fluctuations. In recent decades, the intensity of both growth peaks has diminished and drifted away due to the increased summer drought. The VS-Lite2 model reveals a niche partitioning between both species. Differences in growing season’s length and timings of growth peaks in both species are relevant for their coexistence and should be considered for estimating mixed-forest responses under climate change scenarios.     

Consequences of changing rainfall for fungal pathogen-induced mortality in tropical tree seedlings

Most general circulation models predict that most tropical forests will experience lower and less frequent rainfall in future as a result of climate change, which may reduce the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent tree mortality. This is potentially significant because fungal pathogens are thought to play a key role in promoting and structuring plant diversity in tropical forests through the Janzen-Connell mechanism. Therefore, we hypothesize that the drying of tropical forests will negatively impact species coexistence. To test one prediction of this hypothesis, we imposed experimental watering regimes on the seedlings of a tropical tree, Pleradenophora longicuspis, and measured mortality induced by fungal pathogens under shade house conditions. The frequency of watering had a strong impact on survival. Seedlings watered daily experienced significantly higher mortality than those watered every three or every six days, while increasing the volume of water applied also led to increased mortality, although this relationship was less pronounced. These results suggest that the capacity of fungal pathogens to drive density-dependent mortality may be reduced in drier climates and when rainfall is less frequent, with potential implications for the diversity enhancing Janzen-Connell mechanism.     

Disentangling the Litter Quality and Soil Microbial Contribution to Leaf and Fine Root Litter Decomposition Responses to Reduced Rainfall

Climate change-induced rainfall reductions in Mediterranean forests negatively affect the decomposition of plant litter through decreased soil moisture. However, the indirect effects of reduced precipitation on litter decomposition through changes in litter quality and soil microbial communities are poorly studied. This is especially the case for fine root litter, which contributes importantly to forests plant biomass. Here we analyzed the effects of long-term (11 years) rainfall exclusion (29% reduction) on leaf and fine root litter quality, soil microbial biomass, and microbial community-level physiological profiles in a Mediterranean holm oak forest. Additionally, we reciprocally transplanted soils and litter among the control and reduced rainfall treatments in the laboratory, and analyzed litter decomposition and its responses to a simulated extreme drought event. The decreased soil microbial biomass and altered physiological profiles with reduced rainfall promoted lower fine root—but not leaf—litter decomposition. Both leaf and root litter, from the reduced rainfall treatment, decomposed faster than those from the control treatment. The impact of the extreme drought event on fine root litter decomposition was higher in soils from the control treatment compared to soils subjected to long-term rainfall exclusion. Our results suggest contrasting mechanisms driving drought indirect effects on above-(for example, changes in litter quality) and belowground (for example, shifts in soil microbial community) litter decomposition, even within a single tree species. Quantifying the contribution of these mechanisms relative to the direct soil moisture-effect is critical for an accurate integration of litter decomposition into ecosystem carbon dynamics in Mediterranean forests under climate change.     

A climate change‐induced threat to the ecological resilience of a subtropical monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest in Southern China

Recent studies have suggested that tropical forests may not be resilient against climate change in the long term, primarily owing to predicted reductions in rainfall and forest productivity, increased tree mortality, and declining forest biomass carbon sinks. These changes will be caused by drought‐induced water stress and ecosystem disturbances. Several recent studies have reported that climate change has increased tree mortality in temperate and boreal forests, or both mortality and recruitment rates in tropical forests. However, no study has yet examined these changes in the subtropical forests that account for the majority of China's forested land. In this study, we describe how the monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest has responded to global warming and drought stress using 32 years of data from forest observation plots. Due to an imbalance in mortality and recruitment, and changes in diameter growth rates between larger and smaller trees and among different functional groups, the average DBH of trees and forest biomass have decreased. Sap flow measurements also showed that larger trees were more stressed than smaller trees by the warming and drying environment. As a result, the monsoon evergreen broad‐leaved forest community is undergoing a transition from a forest dominated by a cohort of fewer and larger individuals to a forest dominated by a cohort of more and smaller individuals, with a different species composition, suggesting that subtropical forests are threatened by their lack of resilience against long‐term climate change.     

Observed forest trait velocities have not kept pace with hydraulic stress from climate change

The extent to which future climate change will increase forest stress and the amount to which species and forest ecosystems can acclimate or adapt to increased stress is a major unknown. We used high-resolution maps of hydraulic traits representing the diversity in tree drought tolerance across the United States, a hydraulically enabled tree model, and forest inventory observations of demographic shifts to quantify the ability for within-species acclimation and between-species range shifts to mediate climate stress. We found that forests are likely to experience increases in both acute and chronic hydraulic stress with climate change. Based on current species distributions, regional hydraulic trait diversity was sufficient to buffer against increased stress in 88% of forested areas. However, observed trait velocities in 81% of forested areas are not keeping up with the rate required to ameliorate projected future stress without leaf area acclimation.     

Arboreal and prostrate conifers coexisting in Mediterranean high mountains differ in their climatic responses

In contrast to most high elevation areas, plant growth at Mediterranean mountains is exposed to a summer drought period, which represents an additional climatic constraint to low temperatures. Although arboreal and shrubby conifers coexist at high altitudes, most dendroecological studies have focused on climatic responses of tree species, whereas those of shrubby species remain mostly unexplored. We built tree-ring width chronologies for two conifer species, a shrub (Juniperus sabina) and a tree (Pinus sylvestris), coexisting at three high-altitude localities of the Iberian System mountains, eastern Spain. We analyzed their climate–growth relationships for the period 1950–2009 using correlation analyses and multiple regressions. Coexisting species responded to year-to-year climatic variability in different ways. Radial growth in junipers and pines responded positively to April and May temperatures, respectively. Summer drought constrained growth in both cases, although its impact was stronger on junipers than on pines. Our findings suggest that junipers respond earlier than pines to spring temperatures due to their prostrate morphology which may enhance a fast warming of their cambial meristems after snowmelt. The higher dependence of J. sabina on summer rainfall as compared with co-occurring pines confirms that drought stress negatively impacts secondary growth in Mediterranean mountains. This sensitivity to water availability may be caused by the juniper shallow root systems, which mainly use superficial soil water. The climatic signal registered in J. sabina allows studying the response of other similar shrubby woody species growing in Mediterranean alpine areas to the ongoing climate warming, which could also reduce water availability.     

Climate change‐associated tree mortality increases without decreasing water availability

Temporal increases of tree mortality have been observed in regions where global warming has decreased long‐term water availability and/or induced droughts. However, temporal decreases in water availability are not a global phenomenon. Understanding how water deficit‐free forests respond to the recent effects of climate change is paramount towards a full appreciation of the impacts of climate change on global forests. Here, we reveal temporally increasing tree mortality across all study species over the last three decades in the central boreal forests of Canada, where long‐term water availability has increased without apparent climate change‐associated drought. In addition, we find that the effects of conspecific tree‐to‐tree competition have intensified temporally as a mechanism for the increased mortality of shade‐intolerant tree species. Our results suggest that the consequences of climate change on tree mortality are more profound than previously thought.     

Deciduousness in tropical trees and its potential as indicator of climate change: A review

In tropical forests, deciduousness is an outcome of integrated effect of drought, tree characteristics and soil moisture conditions and thus it is a reliable indicator of seasonal drought experienced by different tree species. Variations in the deciduousness are associated with several ecophysiological characteristics, such as varying allocation pattern of metabolic products, resource capture and conservation, water relations and stem water storages, annual carbon sequestration, timing of reproductive event initiation, extent of separation of vegetative and reproductive events and leaf strategies, and it helps in maintenance of water balance and protection of tree organs during the seasonal drought. Tropical forests support mosaics of tree functional types showing marked differences in the duration of deciduousness (from leaf exchanging to >8 months deciduous), as a result of varying degree of water stress experienced by physiognomy, distribution and wood anatomy of tropical trees. Wide variations in deciduousness in the same species growing at different sites suggest the high sensitivity of tropical trees to small changes in growing habitat. In the present review we have explored the ecological significance of deciduousness in tropical trees with emphasis on: (a) inter- and intraspecies plasticity in deciduousness, (b) various capacity adaptations related with the duration of deciduousness, (c) relationship between tree stem water status and deciduousness, and (d) probable effect of impending climate change on tropical trees. An attempt has also been made to establish deciduousness as climate change indicator in the dry tropics. There is need to develop capabilities to detect and predict the impact of climate change on deciduousness through long-term phenological network in tropics. Remote sensing techniques can generate valuable ecological information such as leaf level drought response and phenological patterns. Deciduousness has the potential to emerge as an important focus for ecological research to address critical questions in global modeling, monitoring, and climate change.     

气候变化对中国东北主要森林类型的影响

应用林窗模型-FAREAST,模拟未来气候变化对中国东北主要类型森林演替动态的影响.根据大气环流模型ECHAM5-OM和HadCM3预测的气候变化资料,模拟选择了目前气候情景、增暖情景、增暖且降水变化情景3种气候情景.结果表明:维持目前气候不变,东北森林树种组成和森林生物量基本维持动态平衡.气候增暖不利于东北主要森林类型生长,主要针叶树种比例下降,阔叶树比例增加;温带针阔混交林垂直分布带有上移的趋势;增暖幅度越大,变化越明显.气候增暖基础上考虑降水变化,东北森林水平分布带有北移的趋势,降水对低海拔温带针阔混交林影响不大.     

Response of a Mediterranean semiarid community to changing patterns of water supply

Climate change may cause profound effects on terrestrial ecosystems. Changes in rainfall patterns may have large effects on a wide range of biological processes such as seed germination, seedling establishment, plant growth, community composition, and population and community dynamics. Climate change models for the Mediterranean region forecast reduced annual precipitation and more extreme rain events (i.e., fewer rainy days and longer drought periods between rainfall events), along with seasonal changes. We experimentally addressed the response of a semiarid Mediterranean community to higher aridity and changes in seasonal rainfall patterns in two glasshouse experiments in which we manipulated water supply. We simulated a delay in the onset of autumn rainfalls (i.e., a longer summer drought period), decreased watering amount and frequency as predicted by climate models, and manipulated the seasonality of water supply. We found that delayed watering led to decreases in plant community productivity and to delays in flowering time, in terms of both date and number of days of water supply. Decreased watering amount and frequency, and accentuated seasonality, also diminished biomass and individuals recruited, but did not change flower phenology. Species diversity was not affected by watering delays; however, it was reduced by changes in frequency, amount and seasonality. Overall, these data underline the need to consider rainfall patterns as an important element that might alter community dynamics and ecosystem structure and functioning. Therefore, the analysis of climate change consequences must not depend on climatic means-based scenarios but must take into account expected seasonal changes in rainfall quantity and frequency.     

Climate response of cork growth in the Mediterranean oak (Quercus suber L.) woodlands of southwestern Portugal

In the Mediterranean climate regions, drought events are expected to affect the growth of forests ecosystems by changing trees growth rates and eventually inducing shifts in their growth patterns. Cork oak (Quercus suber L.) is a strictly western Mediterranean tree species periodically harvested for its bark, the cork. So far, cork oak has received limited attention for dendroclimatological studies due to its typical faint and erratic tree wood rings. Moreover, its distinct cork rings chronologies have been completely neglected. In this study we introduce an approach using cork ring chronologies dated back 9–10 years for climate response. Despite enhancing interannual variability and increasing statistical response to short-term climatic variability, still poorly understood, this study will possibly allow infer long-term climate response. We analyzed the cork ring chronologies of 55 cork samples collected in mature (under exploitation) trees in three distinct locations in southwestern Portugal. Cork growth recorded a high climate signal, with highly significant and coherent responses to the yearly climate-related sources of variation. We successfully assessed trends of cork growth via correlation analysis including selected climate variables among mean monthly temperature, monthly precipitation and, on an annual basis, eight precipitation indices. The high mean sensitivities and inter-series correlations found for cork ring chronologies combined with the significant variance explained by climate variables suggest that climate is likely one dominant signal that affects cork growth, but local environmental stresses can decisively affect this (climate) signal. Assuming cork growth as a proxy for cork oak growth, it seems conceivable that despite the trees being highly resistant to drought stress, cork oak woodlands in southwestern Portugal would have to face lesser growth in a global warming scenario.     

Geographical adaptation prevails over species‐specific determinism in trees’ vulnerability to climate change at Mediterranean rear‐edge forests

Climate change may reduce forest growth and increase forest mortality, which is connected to high carbon costs through reductions in gross primary production and net ecosystem exchange. Yet, the spatiotemporal patterns of vulnerability to both short‐term extreme events and gradual environmental changes are quite uncertain across the species’ limits of tolerance to dryness. Such information is fundamental for defining ecologically relevant upper limits of species tolerance to drought and, hence, to predict the risk of increased forest mortality and shifts in species composition. We investigate here to what extent the impact of short‐ and long‐term environmental changes determines vulnerability to climate change of three evergreen conifers (Scots pine, silver fir, Norway spruce) and two deciduous hardwoods (European beech, sessile oak) tree species at their southernmost limits of distribution in the Mediterranean Basin. Finally, we simulated future forest growth under RCP 2.6 and 8.5 emission scenarios using a multispecies generalized linear mixed model. Our analysis provides four key insights into the patterns of species’ vulnerability to climate change. First, site climatic marginality was significantly linked to the growth trends: increasing growth was related to less climatically limited sites. Second, estimated species‐specific vulnerability did not match their a priori rank in drought tolerance: Scots pine and beech seem to be the most vulnerable species among those studied despite their contrasting physiologies. Third, adaptation to site conditions prevails over species‐specific determinism in forest response to climate change. And fourth, regional differences in forests vulnerability to climate change across the Mediterranean Basin are linked to the influence of summer atmospheric circulation patterns, which are not correctly represented in global climate models. Thus, projections of forest performance should reconsider the traditional classification of tree species in functional types and critically evaluate the fine‐scale limitations of the climate data generated by global climate models.     

Tree-ring distinctness,dating potential and climatic sensitivity of laurel forest tree species in Tenerife Island

Macaronesian laurel forests are the only remnants of a subtropical palaeoecosystem dominant during the Tertiary in Europe and northern Africa. These biodiverse ecosystems are restricted to cloudy and temperate insular environments in the North Atlantic Ocean. Due to their reduced distribution area, these forests are particularly vulnerable to anthropogenic disturbances and changes in climatic conditions. The assessment of laurel forest trees’ response to climate variation by dendrochronological methods is limited because it was assumed that the lack of marked seasonality would prevent the formation of distinct annual tree rings. The aims of this study were to identify the presence of annual growth rings and to assess the dendrochronological potential of the most representative tree species from laurel forests in Tenerife, Canary Islands. We sampled increment cores from 498 trees of 12 species in two well-preserved forests in Tenerife Island. We evaluated tree-ring boundary distinctness, dating potential, and sensitivity of tree-ring growth to climate and, particularly, to drought occurrence. Eight species showed clear tree-ring boundaries, but synchronic annual tree rings and robust tree-ring chronologies were only obtained for Laurus novocanariensis, Ilex perado subsp. platyphylla, Persea indica and Picconia excelsa, a third of the studied species. Tree-ring width depended on water balance and drought occurrence, showing sharp reductions in growth in the face of decreased water availability, a response that was consistent among species and sites. Inter-annual tree-ring width variation was directly dependent on rainfall input in the humid period, from previous October to current April. The four negative pointer years 1995, 1999, 2008 and 2012 corresponded to severe drought events in the study area. This study gives the first assessment of dendrochronological potential and tree-ring climate sensitivity of tree species from the Tenerife laurel forest, which opens new research avenues for dendroecological studies in Macaronesian laurel forests.