Landscape-scale habitat response of African elephants shows strong selection for foraging opportunities in a human dominated ecosystem

Balancing trade-offs between foraging and risk factors is a fundamental behavior that structures the spatial distribution of species. For African elephants Loxodonta africana, human pressures from poaching and conflict are primary drivers of species decline, but little is known about how elephants structure their spatial behavior in the face of human occupancy and predation. We seek to understand how elephants balance trade-offs between resource access, human presence and human predatory risk factors (poaching and conflict killing) in an unfenced, dynamic ecosystem where elephants persist primarily outside protected areas in community rangelands. We used tracking data from 101 elephants collected between 2001 and 2016. We investigated elephant behavior in response to landcover, topography, productivity, water, human features and human predation risk using third-order resource selection functions. We extended this analysis by employing a mixed-effects multinomial regression to identify temporal shifts in habitat use, and evaluated temporal shifts in movement patterns by estimating mean squared displacement across different productivity periods. Across periods, elephants displayed strong selection for productive areas and areas near water. Temporal shifts in habitat use showed that, during the dry period, elephants were clustered around permanent water sources where humans also congregated. At the onset of the wet period, a shift occurred where elephants moved away from permanent water and from permanent settlements towards seasonal water sources and seasonal settlements. Our findings indicate that foraging and water access are important limiting factors affecting elephants that potentially restrain their spatial responses to humans at the scale of our analysis. Given that pastoralists and elephants rely on the same resources, increasing human and livestock populations enhance pressure on shared resources and space in Africa's drylands. The long-term conservation of elephants will require approaches that reduce poaching as well as landscape level planning to prevent negative impacts from increasing competition for preferred resources.     

Employing participatory surveys to monitor the illegal killing of elephants across diverse land uses in Laikipia–Samburu,Kenya

Levels and trends of illegal killing of elephants are measured by the Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES) Monitoring the Illegal Killing of Elephants (MIKE) programme in sites across Africa and Asia. In the mostly unprotected Laikipia–Samburu MIKE site in northern Kenya, elephant mortality data were collected using both standard law enforcement monitoring procedures, relying on patrolling, and participatory methods involving local communities. Qualitatively, traditional patrolling techniques were more successful in protected areas whereas participatory approaches provided more information outside protected areas, where elephant were most at risk from ivory poachers. A minimum of 35% of the 389 verified carcasses during 2001–2003 were illegally killed. In this baseline study, land uses ranked from highest to lowest by the proportion of illegally killed elephants (PIKE) were community conservation areas, government trust lands, forest reserves, private ranches, settlement areas and national reserves. PIKE trends derived from traditional and participatory data sources were similar across years and indicate elephants were at greater risk in regions outside government or privately patrolled areas. We suggest that PIKE is a useful index for comparing levels and trends in illegal killing of elephants, and that carcass ratios and presence/absence of tusks are useful proxy indicators of mortality and its causes.     

Perceptions and Patterns of Human–elephant Conflict in Old and New Settlements in Sri Lanka: Insights for Mitigation and Management

Human–elephant conflict poses a major threat to elephants in many parts of Asia, including Sri Lanka. We studied human–elephant conflict in two areas with contrasting scenarios of landuse and conflict, Kahalle and Yala. Kahalle was developed and settled under the Mahaweli irrigation project and the main agricultural practice was irrigated agriculture, with two annual growing seasons. The area was a mosaic of settlements, agriculture, and small forest patches with ill defined human- and elephant-use areas. Elephants ranged within the habitat mosaic year round, occupying remnant forest patches and raiding adjacent crops at night. In contrast, Yala was dominated by a large protected area complex, and the main agricultural methods were slash-and-burn agriculture and rain-fed paddy cultivation. Human- and elephant-use areas were well defined and segregated. The protected area provided elephants with a refuge and food during the rainy season, when the single annual crop was grown. During the dry season, elephants moved into slash-and-burn areas and utilized leftover crops and pioneer vegetation in fallow fields. The landuse pattern and agricultural practices in Yala facilitated co-existence, whereas that in Kahalle led to year round conflict. We suggest that areas managed according to traditional landuse practices should be part of an elephant conservation strategy, where people and elephants have to share resources.     

How do African elephants utilize the landscape during wet season? A habitat connectivity analysis for Sioma Ngwezi landscape in Zambia

1. The influence of environmental factors on the distribution and persistence of African elephants (Loxodonta africana) is pertinent to policy makers and managers to formulate balanced plans for different land‐use types.
2. The study focuses on movement of elephants and how they utilize foraging areas in Sioma Ngwezi landscape in Zambia by answering the following questions: (1) Which environmental variables and land‐cover class predict the movement of elephants during the wet season in Sioma Ngwezi landscape? (2) What is the wet season suitable habitat for elephants in Sioma Ngwezi landscape? (3) What are the major wet season movement corridors for elephants in Sioma Ngwezi landscape?
3. We used GPS telemetry data from the collared elephants to assess habitat connectivity. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) and linkage mapper were the tools used to predict habitat suitability, movement corridors, and barriers in the landscape during the wet season.
4. The study identified elevation, land cover, and NDVI as the most important environmental predictors that modify the dispersal of elephants in the landscape during the wet season. Additionally, a total of 36 potential wet season corridors were identified connecting 15 core areas mainly used for foraging and protection from poachers in the landscape. Of these, 24 corridors were highly utilized and are suggested as priority corridors for elephant movement in the landscape.
5. The identified wet season habitats and functional corridors may help to combat elephant poaching by patrolling areas with high relative probability of elephant presence. The findings may also help abate human–elephant conflict such as crop‐raiding by managing identified corridors that run into agriculture zones in the game management area.

     

A landscape-level assessment of Asian elephant habitat,its population and elephant–human conflict in the Anamalai hill ranges of southern Western Ghats,India

Spatial information at the landscape scale is extremely important for conservation planning, especially in the case of long-ranging vertebrates. The biodiversity-rich Anamalai hill ranges in the Western Ghats of southern India hold a viable population for the long-term conservation of the Asian elephant. Through rapid but extensive field surveys we mapped elephant habitat, corridors, vegetation and land-use patterns, estimated the elephant population density and structure, and assessed elephant–human conflict across this landscape. GIS and remote sensing analyses indicate that elephants are distributed among three blocks over a total area of about 4600 km². Approximately 92% remains contiguous because of four corridors; however, under 4000 km² of this area may be effectively used by elephants. Nine landscape elements were identified, including five natural vegetation types, of which tropical moist deciduous forest is dominant. Population density assessed through the dung count method using line transects covering 275 km of walk across the effective elephant habitat of the landscape yielded a mean density of 1.1 (95% CI = 0.99–1.2) elephant/km². Population structure from direct sighting of elephants showed that adult male elephants constitute just 2.9% and adult females 42.3% of the population with the rest being sub-adults (27.4%), juveniles (16%) and calves (11.4%). Sex ratios show an increasing skew toward females from juvenile (1:1.8) to sub-adult (1:2.4) and adult (1:14.7) indicating higher mortality of sub-adult and adult males that is most likely due to historical poaching for ivory. A rapid questionnaire survey and secondary data on elephant–human conflict from forest department records reveals that villages in and around the forest divisions on the eastern side of landscape experience higher levels of elephant–human conflict than those on the western side; this seems to relate to a greater degree of habitat fragmentation and percentage farmers cultivating annual crops in the east. We provide several recommendations that could help maintain population viability and reduce elephant–human conflict of the Anamalai elephant landscape.     

Understanding the effect of landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity on elephant habitat utilization in Amboseli ecosystem,Kenya

Understanding factors affecting the distribution of the African elephant is important for its conservation in increasingly human‐dominated savannah landscapes. However, understanding how landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity affect elephant habitat utilization remains poorly understood. In this study, we tested whether landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity explain elephant habitat utilization in the Amboseli ecosystem in Kenya. We used GPS (Global Positioning System) telemetry data from five elephants to quantify elephant habitat utilization. Habitat utilization was determined by calculating the time elephants spent within a unit area. We then used generalized additive models (GAMs) to model the relationship between time density and landscape fragmentation, as well as vegetation productivity. Results show that landscape fragmentation and vegetation productivity significantly (P < 0.05) explain elephant habitat utilization. A significant (P < 0.05) unimodal relationship between vegetation productivity and habitat utilization was observed. Results suggest that elephants spend much of their time in less fragmented landscapes of intermediate productivity.     

普洱市亚洲象栖息地适宜度评价

亚洲象(Elephas maximus)属于我国Ⅰ级保护动物,在中国仅分布于云南省西双版纳国家级自然保护区、普洱市的思茅区、澜沧县和江城县,以及临沧南滚河国家级自然保护区。将普洱全境作为研究区域,利用野外调查数据,结合遥感与地理信息系统技术,运用生态位因子分析(ENFA)模型对普洱市亚洲象的栖息地适宜度进行了评价,并预测了适宜栖息地的分布。发现:普洱市亚洲象栖息地的边际值为0.991,表明亚洲象在普洱市境内对环境变量的选择不是随机的;耐受值为0.315,表明亚洲象在普洱市境内生态位较窄,受环境条件的制约。根据模型计算得到的栖息地适宜度指数,将普洱市的亚洲象栖息地分为最适栖息地,较适栖息地,边际栖息地和非栖息地4个等级,面积分别为409.32、574.32、2909.48、38722.32 km2。最适栖息地仅占全市面积的0.96%,而非栖息地占90.86%。利用GIS和Biomapper 4.0生成亚洲象栖息地分布图,发现普洱境内最适栖息地和较适栖息地面积狭小。对最适栖息地、较适栖息地和边际栖息地进行景观格局分析的结果表明,3种类型的栖息地破碎化均十分严重,连通度较低,栖息地内受到较大程度的人类活动的干扰。因此建议在普洱和西双版纳间尽快建立野生动物生态廊道,以加强亚洲象各种群间的交流。     

西双版纳勐海县勐阿水库对亚洲象迁移活动和人—象冲突的潜在影响

2020年1—12月,采用半结构式访查法、痕迹跟踪调查法和无人机跟踪调查法相结合的方法,对拟建西双版纳勐海县勐阿水库涉及区域的亚洲象种群结构、迁移路线等进行了调查,并采用样方法和3S技术对该区域亚洲象取食植物和栖息地适宜性进行了调查和分析,以探讨拟建勐阿水库可能对亚洲象迁移活动和人—象冲突的潜在影响。结果表明：(1)拟建勐阿水库区域活动的亚洲象小种群被称为澜沧江西部种群或西双版纳勐海—普洱澜沧种群,仅由19头亚洲象(10头雄性,9头雌性)组成,有2条亚洲象迁移路线穿越该区域;(2)在研究区域共统计到亚洲象取食植物12目19科32属33种,基本能满足该象群的取食需求;(3)海拔、坡度、植被隐蔽度及食物资源等生态因子的适宜性分析结果显示,大部分区域(包括占总面积14.61%的最适生境和占总面积82.05%的相对适宜生境)都能满足该亚洲象小种群的基本生活需求;(4)2条亚洲象迁移路线中的1条将因水库建设而阻断,迫使该象群改变原来的迁移路线;(5)水库淹没区的植被将被永久破坏,原本连片的适宜栖息地也将受到进一步切割和压缩影响;(6)当食物资源无法满足亚洲象生存需求时,它们可能会选择进入可在较短时间内获得大量食物的农耕区取食农作物和经济作物,随着人流、车流大量增加,亚洲象与人相遇的概率也会大幅度增加。分析认为,拟建勐阿水库将淹没1条迁移通道,对亚洲象迁移活动造成阻碍,迫使象群改变路线,还可能导致更为严重的人—象冲突。建议在水库工程设计和建设过程中采取有效的保护管理措施,减少工程项目对亚洲象种群及其栖息地的负面影响;水库建设和管理部门、林业和草原管理部门等应加强对亚洲象活动的监测和预警,避免亚洲象肇事造成人员伤亡和更大的经济损失。     

Human–elephant coexistence challenges in Myanmar: An analysis of fatal elephant attacks on humans and elephant mortality

Understanding the underlying causes behind human–elephant conflict (HEC)-driven mortality of humans and elephants will help improve both parties’ wellbeing. The objective of this study was to examine the temporal and spatial mortality patterns of humans and elephants and the influence of local attitudes, conflict factors and habitat factors on elephant poaching. We used the Myanmar Forest Department data from 2001 to 2020 for humans and 2011 to 2020 for elephants together with explanatory data on human attitudes, habitat, and conflict factors. Approximately seven persons were killed annually in elephant attacks, with a bias towards men. The annual mortality of elephants during the study period was on average 16 individuals, and most elephants were killed by humans. There was a significant relationship between the number of killed humans and human-killed elephants around HEC villages. Villages with more property damage exhibited a higher rate of human mortality, which also correlated with negative feelings of local people towards elephants. Elephant poaching was higher in villages with less suitable habitat available for elephant use. Human encroachment is an important cause of HEC, leading to human loss and forming the main threat to the survival of wild elephants. We suggest local involvement to ensure good governance in conflict resolution and mitigation strategies and to strengthen law enforcement.     

Seasonal variation of feeding patterns and food selection by crop-raiding elephants in Zimbabwe

Elephants and humans are increasingly coming into conflict because of the conversion of elephant habitat into agricultural areas. In order to identify trends that influence raiding behaviour, the nutritional makeup of food items consumed by crop‐raiding elephants over a 2‐year period were analysed and a trigger for crop raiding was identified. The point at which the quality of wild grasses declines below the quality of crop species corresponded to the movement of bull elephants out of a protected area and into fields. This finding may have wider implications for developing predictive models of elephant/human interactions.     

Patterns and determinants of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal

Attacks on humans by Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) is an extreme form of human–elephant conflict. It is a serious issue in southern lowland Nepal where elephant‐related human fatalities are higher than other wildlife. Detailed understanding of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal is still lacking, hindering to devising appropriate strategies for human–elephant conflict mitigation. This study documented spatiotemporal pattern of elephant attacks on humans, factors associated with the attacks, and human/elephant behavior contributing to deaths of victims when attacked. We compiled all the documented incidences of elephant attacks on humans in Nepal for last 20 years across Terai and Chure region of Nepal. We also visited and interviewed 412 victim families (274 fatalities and 138 injuries) on elephant attacks. Majority of the victims were males (87.86%) and had low level of education. One fourth of the elephant attacks occurred while chasing the elephants. Solitary bulls or group of subadult males were involved in most of the attack. We found higher number of attacks outside the protected area. People who were drunk and chasing elephants using firecrackers were more vulnerable to the fatalities. In contrast, chasing elephants using fire was negatively associated with the fatalities. Elephant attacks were concentrated in proximity of forests primarily affecting the socioeconomically marginalized communities. Integrated settlement, safe housing for marginalized community, and community grain house in the settlement should be promoted to reduce the confrontation between elephants and humans in entire landscape for their long‐term survival.     

云南西双版纳尚勇保护区亚洲象对栖息地的选择

以西双版纳国家级自然保护区尚勇子保护区内的亚洲象种群为研究对象, 利用村寨调查、样线调查和3S(GIS、GPS、RS) 技术对该地区野生亚洲象的栖息地状况和亚洲象对栖息地选择利用进行了初步的研究。结果表明亚洲象喜欢海拔1 000 m以下的区域, 坡度小于10°的区域, 坡位为平坦的沟谷和山坡的下部, 坡向为南、北两个方向。偏好的植被类型有竹阔混交林、灌丛和高山草甸。研究还发现尚勇保护区及周边区域亚洲象栖息地的丧失和日益增加的非法盗猎活动已经严重威胁到该地区野生亚洲象种群的生存。     

Beehive fences as effective deterrents for crop‐raiding elephants: field trials in northern Kenya

Increasing elephant populations in Kenya since 1989 have been widely praised as a conservation success story. However, where elephants and agricultural land overlap, incidents of human–elephant conflict are on the increase. Wildlife managers and farmers are now trying different farm‐based deterrents to keep elephants out of crops. Here, we present data on the effectiveness of a novel beehive fence deployed in a Turkana community of 62 communally run farms in Kenya. Specifically, 1700 m of beehive fences semi‐surrounded the outer boundaries of seventeen farms, and we compared elephant farm invasion events with these and to seventeen neighbouring farms whose boundaries were ‘protected’ only by thorn bush barriers. We present data from 45 farm invasions, or attempted invasions, recorded over 2 years. Thirteen groups of elephants approached the beehive fences and turned away. Of the 32 successful farm invasions, only one bull elephant broke through the beehive fences. These results demonstrate that beehive fences are more effective than thorn bush barriers at deterring elephants and may have a role to play in alleviating farmer–elephant conflict. Additionally, the harvesting of 106 kg of honey during the trial period suggests that beehive fences may also improve crop production and enhance rural livelihoods through honey sales.     

Linking two elephant refuges with a corridor in the communal lands of Zimbabwe

Wildlife corridors, protected bands of suitable habitat linking core populations of plants and animals, are seen as the best solution to the problem of habitat fragmentation. A corridor between two wildlife refuges was identified in the communal lands of Zimbabwe. Results of tracking the current preferred migration of bull elephants between the two refuges using radio collars were combined with a GIS analysis to examine the zone where conservation of habitat would have least impact on current activities within the communal lands. A suitable corridor was identified using least‐cost analysis allowing for the improved conservation of the elephants and therefore potentially increasing the benefits to local residents by both reducing human/elephant conflict and increasing income from sport hunting and tourism in the region. Recent political violence in the corridor region, the illegal killing of elephants and the loss of suitable habitat makes the implementation of this corridor unlikely.     

An empirical evaluation of the African elephant as a focal species for connectivity planning in East Africa

Aim Large, charismatic and wide‐ranging animals are often employed as focal species for prioritizing landscape linkages in threatened ecosystems (i.e. ‘connectivity conservation’), but there have been few efforts to assess empirically whether focal species co‐occur with other species of conservation interest within potential linkages. We evaluated whether the African elephant (Loxodonta africana), a world‐recognized flagship species, would serve as an appropriate focal species for other large mammals in a potential linkage between two major protected area complexes. Location A 15,400 km² area between the Ruaha and Selous ecosystems in central Tanzania, East Africa. Methods We used walking transects to assess habitat, human activity and co‐occurrence of elephants and 48 other large mammal species (> 1 kg) at 63 sites using animal sign and direct sightings. We repeated a subset of transects to estimate species detectability using occupancy modelling. We used logistic regression and AIC model selection to characterize patterns of elephant occurrence and assessed correlation of elephant presence with richness of large mammals and subgroups. We considered other possible focal species, compared habitat‐based linear regression models of large mammal richness and used circuit theory to examine potential connectivity spatially. Results Elephants were detected in many locations across the potential linkage. Elephant presence was highly positively correlated with the richness of large mammals, as well as ungulates, carnivores, large carnivores and species > 45 kg in body mass (‘megafauna’). Outside of protected areas, both mammal richness and elephant presence were negatively correlated with human population density and distance from water. Only one other potential focal species was more strongly correlated with species richness than elephants, but detectability was highest for elephants. Main conclusions Although African elephants have dispersal abilities that exceed most other terrestrial mammals, conserving elephant movement corridors may effectively preserve habitat and potential landscape linkages for other large mammal species among Tanzanian reserves.     

Home range and ranging behaviour of Bornean elephant (Elephas maximus borneensis) females

Background

Home range is defined as the extent and location of the area covered annually by a wild animal in its natural habitat. Studies of African and Indian elephants in landscapes of largely open habitats have indicated that the sizes of the home range are determined not only by the food supplies and seasonal changes, but also by numerous other factors including availability of water sources, habitat loss and the existence of man-made barriers. The home range size for the Bornean elephant had never been investigated before.

Methodology/Principal Findings

The first satellite tracking program to investigate the movement of wild Bornean elephants in Sabah was initiated in 2005. Five adult female elephants were immobilized and neck collars were fitted with tracking devices. The sizes of their home range and movement patterns were determined using location data gathered from a satellite tracking system and analyzed by using the Minimum Convex Polygon and Harmonic Mean methods. Home range size was estimated to be 250 to 400 km² in a non-fragmented forest and 600 km² in a fragmented forest. The ranging behavior was influenced by the size of the natural forest habitat and the availability of permanent water sources. The movement pattern was influenced by human disturbance and the need to move from one feeding site to another.

Conclusions/Significance

Home range and movement rate were influenced by the degree of habitat fragmentation. Once habitat was cleared or converted, the availability of food plants and water sources were reduced, forcing the elephants to travel to adjacent forest areas. Therefore movement rate in fragmented forest was higher than in the non-fragmented forest. Finally, in fragmented habitat human and elephant conflict occurrences were likely to be higher, due to increased movement bringing elephants into contact more often with humans.     

An elephantine challenge: human–elephant conflict distribution in the largest Asian elephant population,southern India

Wildlife conservation is a complex issue especially when it involves large carnivores or mega-herbivores that are conflict-prone. Karnataka state in southern India is known to harbor high density of wild elephants. This conservation success story also has opportunity costs for communities living in close proximity to elephants. Despite the fact that human–elephant conflict is a serious conservation and social issue, there is little quantitative understanding of conflict especially over large areas. Here we conduct the first analysis of human–elephant conflict distribution, severity and explanatory factors over the entire state of Karnataka. We use data from the state forest department records on villages that experience conflict, compensation payments made by the government, elephant densities, forest cover and perimeter, and presence of physical barriers to mitigate elephant conflict. In total, 60,939 incidences of crop loss were reported and US$ 2.99 m paid in compensation during April 2008–March 2011. A total of 91 people were killed by elephants and 101 elephants died in retaliatory killings during the study period. A total of 9.4 % of the state’s geographic area covering 25 of the 42 forest administrative divisions were affected. There was no significant difference in conflict incidences or compensation given between protected areas and non-protected areas. There was no correlation between conflict incidences/unit area and elephant density, forest cover, forest perimeter of protected areas and presence of physical barriers. The results depict the importance of efficient management of physical barriers, conserving key habitat linkages, and acts as baseline data for future work.     

西双版纳亚洲象的栖息地评价

本文利用亚洲象种群野外调查数据,结合3S技术,应用生态位因子分析（Ecological Niche Factor Analysis,ENFA）模型对西双版纳亚洲象的栖息地状况进行评价,并对适宜栖息地做出预测。结果表明：ENFA分析的边界值M=1.375＞1,耐受值T=0.478,说明亚洲象对环境条件有一定选择性和耐受性,但生态位仍不宽,专化程度较高;影响亚洲象栖息地质量的最重要因素为植被因素,尤其是竹林和竹阔混交林;在本研究中,象群在农地中的分布点占所有分布点的45.2%,它们对栖息地预测结果的影响显著,与有农地象分布点所预测的亚洲象栖息地相比,无农地象分布点所预测的亚洲象总栖息地面积共减少2652.5 km²,其中农地面积减少最大,共计1788 km²,所占比例由35.7%降低至6.3%,因此,有农地象分布点所预测得到的亚洲象栖息地分布是人为干扰模式下的亚洲象栖息地状况,而无农地象分布点所预测的亚洲象栖息地是真正适宜亚洲象生存的栖息地;这些栖息地主要分布在西双版纳国家级自然保护区的勐养、勐仑、勐腊、尚勇子保护区和纳板河流域国家级自然保护区内及其周边地区,且已呈现岛屿化,因此急需在勐养子保护区和普洱之间、勐腊和尚勇子保护区之间以及中国-老挝边境地区建立生态廊道以保护亚洲象种群的长期维持和健康发展。     

Locating elephant corridors between Saadani National Park and the Wami‐Mbiki Wildlife Management Area,Tanzania

Although more than 40% of Tanzania mainland is managed for nature conservation, protected areas are increasingly becoming isolated because of rapid habitat degradation in the matrix in between. Knowledge on corridors connecting the protected areas is urgently needed. We assessed the area between Saadani National Park and Wami‐Mbiki Wildlife Management Area, combining interviews about wildlife occurrences from 20 villages in the area with least‐cost landscape modelling with African elephants (Loxodonta africana) as the focal species. The interviews suggested that, in contrast to earlier assumptions, migration of elephants or the presence of one or more independent elephant populations still exists in the unprotected area between Saadani and Wami‐Mbiki. A combination of the interview results and multiple least‐cost models showed three corridors in the area. The corridor along the Wami river is the most important one, the area between Miono and Mandera was identified as an impeding zone. Management decisions on the wildlife corridors to be protected will require further in‐depth research in the three specified corridor zones. Apart from providing insights into elephant movement ecology, the approach may be useful for localizing corridors elsewhere in eastern Africa.     

Conservation status of Asian elephants: the influence of habitat and governance

Understanding the drivers of Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) abundance and distribution is critical for effective elephant conservation, yet no such analysis exists despite decades of assessments and planning. We explored the influence of habitat- and governance-related drivers on elephant abundance across the 13 Asian elephant range countries. We tested competing statistical models by integrating a binary index of elephant abundance (IEA) derived from expert knowledge with different predictor variables including habitat, human population, socioeconomics, and governance data. We employed logistic regression and model-averaging techniques based on Akaike’s Information Criterion to identify the best-performing subset among our 12 candidate models and used the model-averaged results to predict IEA in other areas in Asia where elephant population status is currently unknown. Forest area was our strongest single predictor variable. The best performing model, however, featured a combination of habitat and governance variables including forest area, level of corruption, proportional mix of forest and agriculture, and total agricultural area. Our predictive model identified five areas with medium–high to high probability to have populations with >150 elephants, which we believe should be surveyed to assess their status. Asian elephants persist in areas that are dominated by forest but also seem to benefit from a mix of agricultural activities. A relatively low level of corruption is also important and we conclude that effective governance is essential for maintaining Asian elephant populations. Asian elephant populations cannot be maintained solely in protected areas but need well-managed, mixed-use landscapes where people and elephants coexist.