BMI, all-cause and cause-specific mortality in Chinese Singaporean men and women: the Singapore Chinese health study

Background

The optimal range of relative weight for morbidity and mortality in Asian populations is an important question in need of more thorough investigation, especially as obesity rates increase. We aimed to examine the association between body mass index (BMI), all cause and cause-specific mortality to determine the optimal range of BMI in relation to mortality in Chinese men and women in Singapore.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We analyzed data from a prospective cohort study of 51,251 middle-aged or older (45–74) Chinese men and women in the Singapore Chinese Health Study. Participants were enrolled and data on body weight and covariates were collected in 1993–1998 and participants were followed through 2008. The analysis accounted for potential methodological issues through stratification on smoking and age, thorough adjustment of demographic and lifestyle confounders and exclusion of deaths early in the follow-up.

Conclusions/Significance

Increased risk of mortality was apparent in underweight (<18.5) and obese BMI categories (≥27.5) independent of age and smoking. Regardless of age or BMI, smoking considerably increased the rate of mortality and modified the association between BMI and mortality. The most favorable range of BMI for mortality rates and risk in non-smoking persons below age 65 was 18.5–21.4 kg/m², and for non-smoking persons aged 65 and above was 21.5–24.4 kg/m².     

Visceral fat is an independent predictor of all-cause mortality in men

Objective: To examine the independent associations of abdominal fat (visceral and subcutaneous) and liver fat with all‐cause mortality. Research Methods and Procedures: Participants included 291 men [97 decedents and 194 controls; mean age, 56.4 ± 12.0 (SD) years] who received a computed tomography (CT) examination at the preventive medicine clinic in Dallas, TX, between 1995 and 1999, with a mean mortality follow‐up of 2.2 ± 1.3 years. Abdominal fat was determined using contiguous CT images from the L3‐L4 to L4‐L5 intervertebral space. Liver fat was assessed using the CT‐determined liver attenuation value, which is inversely related to liver fat. Logistic regression was used to determine the independent association between the fat depots and all‐cause mortality. Results: During the study, there were 97 deaths. Visceral fat [odds ratio (OR) per SD: 1.83; 95% CI: 1.23 to 2.73], abdominal subcutaneous fat (1.44; 1.02 to 2.03), liver fat (0.64; 0.46 to 0.87), and waist circumference (1.41; 1.01 to 1.98) were significant individual predictors of mortality after controlling for age and length of follow‐up. In a model including all three fat measures (subcutaneous, visceral, and liver fat), age, and length of follow‐up, only visceral fat (1.93; 1.15 to 3.23) was a significant predictor of mortality. Discussion: Visceral fat is a strong, independent predictor of all‐cause mortality in men.     

Arm-cranking muscle power and arm isometric muscle strength are independent predictors of all-cause mortality in men.

Poor muscle strength is associated with mortality, presumably due to low muscle mass. Notably, muscle power declines more rapidly than muscle strength with increasing age, which may be related to more complex central nervous system movement control. We examined arm-cranking power against four workloads and isometric strength measured in the upper extremities of 993 men longitudinally tested over a 25-yr period. Muscle mass was estimated by using 24-h creatinine excretion; physical activity was assessed by self-reported questionnaire. Muscle power and strength were modeled by time by using mixed-effects models, which developed regression equations for each individual. The first derivative of these equations estimated rate of change in strength or power at each evaluation. Survival analyses, using the counting method, examined the impact of strength, power, and their rates of change on all-cause mortality while adjusting for age. Arm-cranking power [relative risk (rr) = 0.984 per 100 kg.m.min(-1), P < 0.001] was a stronger predictor of mortality than was arm strength (rr = 0.986 per 10 kg, P = not significant), whereas rate of power change (rr = 0.989 per 100 kg.min(-1).yr(-1)) and rate of arm strength change (rr = 0.888 per 10 kg/yr) were risks independent of the power or strength levels. The impacts of power and strength were partially independent of muscle mass and physical activity. The risk of mortality was similar across the four power workloads (rr = 0.93-0.96 per 100 kg.m.min(-1)), whereas the lowest load generated less than one-half the power as the higher loads. Arm-cranking power is a risk factor for mortality, independent of muscle strength, physical activity, and muscle mass. The impact is found with loads that do not generate maximal power, suggesting an important role for motor coordination and speed of movement.     

Relationship between sleep duration and cause-specific mortality in diabetic men and women based on self-reports

Sleep and Biological Rhythms - Sleep duration could affect glucose tolerance and mortality. However, the impact that sleep duration has on prognosis of people with diabetes is unclear. A cohort of...     

Functional status and all-cause mortality in serious mental illness

Background

Serious mental illness can affect many aspects of an individual’s ability to function in daily life. The aim of this investigation was to determine if the environmental and functional status of people with serious mental illness contribute to the high mortality risk observed in this patient group.

Methods

We identified cases of schizophrenia, schizoaffective and bipolar disorder aged ≥15 years in a large secondary mental healthcare case register linked to national mortality tracing. We modelled the effect of activities of daily living (ADLs), living conditions, occupational and recreational activities and relationship factors (Health of the Nation Outcome Scale [HoNOS] subscales) on all-cause mortality over a 4-year observation period (2007–10) using Cox regression.

Results

We identified 6,880 SMI cases (242 deaths) in the observation period. ADL impairment was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (adjusted HR 1.9; 95% CI 1.3–2.8; p = 0.001, p for trend across ADL categories = 0.001) after controlling for a broad range of covariates (including demographic factors, physical health, mental health symptoms and behaviours, socio-economic status and mental health service contact). No associations were found for the other three exposures. Stratification by age indicated that ADLs were most strongly associated with mortality in the youngest (15 to <35 years) and oldest (≥55 years) groups.

Conclusions

Functional impairment in people with serious mental illness diagnoses is a marker of increased mortality risk, possibly in younger age groups as a marker of negative symptomatology.     

Improved prediction of all-cause mortality by a combination of serum total testosterone and insulin-like growth factor I in adult men

ObjectiveLower levels of anabolic hormones in older age are well documented. Several studies suggested that low insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) or testosterone levels were related to increased mortality. The aim of the present study was to investigate the combined influence of low IGF-I and low testosterone on all-cause mortality in men.Methods and resultsFrom two German prospective cohort studies, the DETECT study and SHIP, 3942 men were available for analyses. During 21,838 person-years of follow-up, 8.4% (n = 330) of men died. Cox model analyses with age as timescale and adjusted for potential confounders revealed that men with levels below the 10th percentile of at least one hormone [hazard ratio (HR) 1.38 (95% confidence-interval (CI) 1.06–1.78), p = 0.02] and two hormones [HR 2.88 (95% CI 1.32–6.29), p < 0.01] showed a higher risk of all-cause mortality compared to men with non-low hormones. The associations became non-significant by using the 20th percentile as cut-off showing that the specificity increased with lower cut-offs for decreased hormone levels. The inclusion of both IGF-I and total testosterone in a mortality prediction model with common risk factors resulted in a significant integrated discrimination improvement of 0.5% (95% CI 0.3–0.7%, p = 0.03).ConclusionsOur results prove that multiple anabolic deficiencies have a higher impact on mortality than a single anabolic deficiency and suggest that assessment of more than one anabolic hormone as a biomarker improve the prediction of all-cause mortality.     

Morbidity and mortality risk associated with an overweight BMI in older men and women

Background: There is controversy as to whether older adults with a BMI in the overweight range (25 to 29.9 kg/m²) are at increased health risk and whether they should be encouraged to lose weight. The purpose of this study was to determine whether older adults with a BMI in the overweight range are at increased morbidity and mortality risk. Methods: Participants consisted of 4968 older (≥65 years) men and women from the Cardiovascular Health Study limited access dataset. Based on BMI (kg/m²), participants were grouped into normal‐weight (20 to 24.9 kg/m²), overweight (25 to 29.9 kg/m²), and obese (≥30 kg/m²) categories. Participants were followed for up to 9 years to determine if they developed 10 weight‐related health outcomes that are pertinent to older adults. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate the hazards ratios of morbidity and mortality after adjusting for age, sex, income, smoking, and physical activity. Results: Compared with the normal‐weight group, the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke, sleep apnea, urinary incontinence, cancer, and osteoporosis were not different in the overweight group (p > 0.05). The risks for arthritis and physical disability were modestly increased in the overweight group (p < 0.05), whereas the risk for type 2 diabetes was increased by 78% in the overweight group (p < 0.01). After adjusting for all relevant covariates, all‐cause mortality risk was 11% lower in the overweight group (p < 0.05). Conclusions: A BMI in the overweight range was associated with some modest disease risks but a slightly lower overall mortality rate. These findings suggest that a BMI cut‐off point of 25 kg/m² may be overly restrictive for the elderly.     

Marital status and mortality among middle age and elderly men and women in urban Shanghai

Background

Previous studies have suggested that marital status is associated with mortality, but few studies have been conducted in China where increasing aging population and divorce rates may have major impact on health and total mortality.

Methods

We examined the association of marital status with mortality using data from the Shanghai Women''s Health Study (1996–2009) and Shanghai Men''s Health Study (2002–2009), two population-based cohort studies of 74,942 women aged 40–70 years and 61,500 men aged 40–74 years at the study enrollment. Deaths were identified by biennial home visits and record linkage with the vital statistics registry. Marital status was categorized as married, never married, divorced, widowed, and all unmarried categories combined. Cox regression models were used to derive hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Unmarried and widowed women had an increased all-cause HR = 1.11, 95% CI: 1.03, 1.21 and HR = 1.10, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.20 respectively) and cancer (HR = 1.17, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.32 and HR = 1.18, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.34 respectively) mortality. Never married women had excess all-cause mortality (HR = 1.46, 95% CI: 1.03, 2.09). Divorce was associated with elevated cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality in women (HR = 1.47, 95% CI: 1.01, 2.13) and elevated all-cause mortality (HR = 2.45, 95% CI: 1.55, 3.86) in men. Amongst men, not being married was associated with excess all-cause (HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.12, 1.88) and CVD (HR = 1.65, 95% CI: 1.07, 2.54) mortality.

Conclusions

Marriage is associated with decreased all cause mortality and CVD mortality, in particular, among both Chinese men and women.     

Qualitative analysis of the all-cause black-white mortality crossover

To date, despite decades of investigations and the relative abundance of mortality data, our understanding of the phenomenon of ‘mortality crossover’ remains inadequate. We propose a methodology for transforming mortality data from the ‘age-domain’ to the ‘time-domain’. We then introduce a model of selection partially offset by mobility, to simulate the dynamics of vulnerability in a population cohort that is heterogeneous in health and death. Using our model of vulnerability simulating the dynamics of mortality in the time-domain, we compare the mortality experience of the Black and White populations of the United States, identify the significance of selection and mobility as potential factors producing the crossover phenomenon, and make diagnostic use of them.     

Low serum cholesterol concentration and short term mortality from injuries in men and women.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether total serum cholesterol concentration predicts mortality from injuries including suicide. DESIGN--Cohort study of men and women who had their serum cholesterol concentration measured as part of a general health survey in Värmland, Sweden in 1964 or 1965 and were followed up for an average of 20.5 years. SUBJECTS--Adults participating in health screening in 1964-5 (26,693 men and 27,692 women). The study sample was restricted to subjects aged 45-74 years during any of the 20.5 years of follow-up. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Serum cholesterol concentration. Deaths from all injuries and suicides during three periods of follow up (0-6 years, 7-13 years, and 14-21 years) according to the Swedish mortality register in subjects aged 45-74. Adjustment was made for prevalent cancer (identified from the Swedish cancer register) at the time of a suicide. RESULTS--A strong negative relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found in men during the first seven years of follow up. The relative risk in the lowest 25% of the cholesterol distribution was 2.8 (95% confidence interval 1.52 to 4.96) compared with the top 25%. Most of the excess risk was caused by suicide with a corresponding relative risk of 4.2 (p for trend = 0.001). Correction for prevalent cancer did not change the results. Events occurring during the latter two thirds of the 20.5 years of follow up were not predicted. In women no relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality from injuries was found. CONCLUSIONS--Together with observations from intervention trials the findings support the existence of a relation between serum cholesterol concentration and suicide. The causality of such a relation is, however, not resolved.     

Influence of the level of trait anxiety on sleep EEG of men and women

Psychophysiological tests for identifying the level of trait anxiety and polysomnology have been used in this study. Gender differences in the organization of sleep phases during the first three cycles and the spectral density of sleep EEGs for persons with high and low levels of trait anxiety have been studied.     

Body mass index and all-cause mortality in a large Chinese cohort

Background

Obesity is known to be associated with an increased risk of death, but current definitions of obesity are based on data from white populations. We examined the association between body mass index (BMI) and the risk of death in a large population of adult Chinese people.

Methods

We examined the association between body mass index (BMI) and all-cause mortality prospectively among 58 738 men and 65 718 women aged 20 years and older enrolled in 1998–1999 from four national health screening centres in Taiwan. We used Cox proportional hazards regression analyses to estimate the relative risks of all-cause mortality for different BMI categories during a maximum follow-up of 10 years.

Results

A total of 3947 participants died during the follow-up period. The lowest risk of death was observed among men and women who had a BMI of 24.0–25.9 (mean 24.9). After adjustment for age, smoking status, alcohol intake, betel-nut chewing, level of physical activity, income level and education level, we observed a U-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality. Similar U-shaped associations were observed when we analyzed data by age (20–64 or ≥ 65 years), smoking (never, < 10 pack-years or ≥ 10 pack-years) and presence of a pre-existing chronic disease, and after we excluded deaths that occurred in the first three years of follow-up.

Interpretation

BMI and all-cause mortality had a U-shaped association among adult Chinese people in our study. The lowest risk of death was among adults who had a BMI of 24.0–25.9 (mean 24.9). Our findings do not support the use of a lower cutoff value for overweight and obesity in the adult Chinese population.The prevalence of obesity has dramatically increased in past decades in both developed and developing countries. The World Health Organization (WHO) reported that 1.6 billion adults are overweight and at least 400 million are obese.¹ The WHO further predicted that by the year 2015, about 2.3 billion adults will be overweight and more than 700 million will be obese.¹ In Taiwan, according to a national survey performed between 1993–1996 and 2005–2008, the prevalence of overweight and obesity (defined as body mass index [BMI] ≥ 24 kg/m²) had increased dramatically, from 33.4% to 50.8% among men and from 31.7% to 36.9% among women.²Overweight and obesity have been recognized as important and independent risk factors for many chronic diseases such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, stroke, cardiovascular diseases and malignant diseases.^3–7 Substantial epidemiologic evidence shows that obesity is associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular-related and all-cause mortality.^8,9 Therefore, obesity has become a major public health problem around the world.Current definitions of obesity and overweight in adults are based on data from white populations. The WHO has proposed another definition for Asian people, but most of the data it used were from cross-sectional studies.¹⁰ One study showed that, for a given BMI, Asian people had higher body fat than white people.¹¹ Furthermore, the association between BMI and all-cause mortality has been reported to be J-shaped or U-shaped. Most of the studies involved white people, with only a few involving Asian populations. Gu and colleagues reported a U-shaped association between BMI and all-cause mortality among Chinese people.¹² However, they included only middle-aged adults over 40 years old and not all adults over 20 years.We designed a large prospective cohort study to assess the association between BMI and all-cause mortality in a nationwide representative sample of Chinese adults over 20 years old in Taiwan. We also intended to find the optimal BMI cutoff values for overweight and obesity among Chinese adults.     

Alcohol consumption and mortality: modelling risks for men and women at different ages

ObjectiveTo estimate the relation between alcohol consumption and risk of death, the level of alcohol consumption at which risk is least, and how these vary with age and sex.DesignAnalysis using published systematic reviews and population data.SettingEngland and Wales in 1997.ResultsA direct dose-response relation exists between alcohol consumption and risk of death in women aged 16-54 and in men aged 16-34. At older ages the relation is U shaped. The level at which the risk is lowest increases with age, reaching 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65. The level at which the risk is increased by 5% above this minimum is 8 units a week in women aged 16-24 and 5 units a week in men aged 16-24, increasing to 20 and 34 units a week in women and men aged over 65, respectively.ConclusionsSubstantially increased risks of all cause mortality can occur even in people drinking lower than recommended limits, and especially among younger people.

What is already known on this topic

Non-drinkers and heavy drinkers have higher all cause mortality rates than light drinkers—the U shaped curveThe precise shape and location of the U are likely to depend on age and sex, but this has not been quantified

What this study adds

The level of alcohol consumption that carries the lowest mortality ranges from 0 in men and women aged under 35 to 3 units a week in women aged over 65 and 8 units a week in men aged over 65The level of alcohol consumption that carries a 5% increase in mortality increases with age from 8 to 20 units a week in women and from 5 to 34 units a week in menOur calculations were for England and Wales in 1997: nadirs are likely to be lower in the future and in countries with less ischaemic heart disease     

Vitamin D receptor polymorphism and colorectal cancer-specific and all-cause mortality

BackgroundThe vitamin D receptor (VDR) gene is present in colorectal cancer (CRC) cells and its genetic variants have been associated with an increased risk of CRC. The association with colorectal cancer prognosis remains widely unexplored.Methods1397 colorectal cancer patients participating in two cancer cohorts (ESTHER II and VERDI) and in a population-based case–control study (DACHS) were followed for 5 years. Unadjusted and adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality (469 events) and CRC-specific mortality (336 events) were estimated for VDR variants rs731236 (TaqI), rs2228570 (FokI), rs11568820 (Cdx2), and rs1989969 (VDR-5132).ResultsNo association was found between VDR polymorphism and CRC specific and all-cause mortality. Adjusted hazard ratios ranged from 0.79 (95% CI 0.57–1.12) to 1.14 (95% CI 0.89–1.46) for CRC-specific mortality and from 0.89 (95% CI 0.67–1.18) to 1.22 (95% CI 0.99–1.50) for all-cause mortality. All 95% confidence intervals included the null value.ConclusionsOur findings do not support the hypothesis that the common VDR gene variants investigated in this study are of clinical relevance with respect to CRC prognosis.     

Obesity, leanness, and mortality: effect modification by physical activity in men and women

The 13-year mortality from BMI, body fat (BF), and fat-free mass (FFM) was examined among active and sedentary adults. In total, 2,819 men and women aged 35-65 years in 1987/1988, participating in the Danish MONICA project, were included, and followed for 13.6 years for total mortality. In men, physical activity modified the health hazard of both a high and a low BMI, and the U-shaped association disappeared among the active (hazard ratio (HR) = 0.86, CI: 0.72-1.02). Among active men, FFM was inversely related to mortality (HR = 0.55, 95% CI: 0.40-0.77) whereas a direct positive trend was seen for BF. Among women, physical activity modified association between BMI and mortality, but the U-shaped association remained among the active. Among women, no significant associations were found between either BF or FFM and total mortality. All effects were independent of waist- and hip-circumferences. In conclusion, among men, physical activity may play an important role for the prevention of early mortality beyond its direct effects, by modifying the health hazard of both a high and a low BMI, and by lowering the risk associated with a high BF or a low FFM. Among women physical activity lowers mortality, but an effect-modifying potential of physical activity on associations between BMI or body composition could not be identified.     

Combined impact of health behaviours and mortality in men and women: the EPIC-Norfolk prospective population study

Background

There is overwhelming evidence that behavioural factors influence health, but their combined impact on the general population is less well documented. We aimed to quantify the potential combined impact of four health behaviours on mortality in men and women living in the general community.

Methods and Findings

We examined the prospective relationship between lifestyle and mortality in a prospective population study of 20,244 men and women aged 45–79 y with no known cardiovascular disease or cancer at baseline survey in 1993–1997, living in the general community in the United Kingdom, and followed up to 2006. Participants scored one point for each health behaviour: current non-smoking, not physically inactive, moderate alcohol intake (1–14 units a week) and plasma vitamin C >50 mmol/l indicating fruit and vegetable intake of at least five servings a day, for a total score ranging from zero to four. After an average 11 y follow-up, the age-, sex-, body mass–, and social class–adjusted relative risks (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality(1,987 deaths) for men and women who had three, two, one, and zero compared to four health behaviours were respectively, 1.39 (1.21–1.60), 1.95 (1.70–-2.25), 2.52 (2.13–3.00), and 4.04 (2.95–5.54) p < 0.001 trend. The relationships were consistent in subgroups stratified by sex, age, body mass index, and social class, and after excluding deaths within 2 y. The trends were strongest for cardiovascular causes. The mortality risk for those with four compared to zero health behaviours was equivalent to being 14 y younger in chronological age.

Conclusions

Four health behaviours combined predict a 4-fold difference in total mortality in men and women, with an estimated impact equivalent to 14 y in chronological age.     

Associations of egg consumption with incident cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality

Eggs are nutrient-dense while also loaded with abundant cholesterol, thus making the public hesitant about their consumption.We conducted the study to investigate if egg consumption is associated with incident cardiovascular disease(CVD) and all-cause mortality. Using the project of Prediction for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk in China, we included 102,136 adults free of CVD and assessed their egg consumption with food-frequency questionnaires. CVD endpoints and all-cause mortality were confirmed during follow-ups by interviewing participants or their proxies and checking hospital records/death certificates.The HRs(95% CIs) were calculated using the cohort-stratified Cox regression models. During 777,163 person-years of followup, we identified 4,848 incident CVD and 5,511 deaths. U-shaped associations of egg consumption with incident CVD and allcause mortality were observed. Compared with consumption of 3–6/week, the multivariable-adjusted HRs(95% CIs) of 1/week and ≥10/week for incident CVD were 1.22(1.11 to 1.35) and 1.39(1.28 to 1.52), respectively. The corresponding HRs(95% CIs) for all-cause mortality were 1.29(1.18 to 1.41) and 1.13(1.04 to 1.24). Our findings identified that both low and high consumption were associated with increased risk of incident CVD and all-cause mortality, highlighting that moderate egg consumption of 3–6/week should be recommended for CVD prevention in China.