Pneumococcal Transmission and Disease In Silico: A Microsimulation Model of the Indirect Effects of Vaccination

Background

The degree and time frame of indirect effects of vaccination (serotype replacement and herd immunity) are key determinants in assessing the net effectiveness of vaccination with pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) in control of pneumococcal disease. Using modelling, we aimed to quantify these effects and their dependence on coverage of vaccination and the vaccine''s efficacy against susceptibility to pneumococcal carriage.

Methods and Findings

We constructed an individual-based simulation model that explores the effects of large-scale PCV programmes and applied it in a developed country setting (Finland). A population structure with transmission of carriage taking place within relevant mixing groups (families, day care groups, schools and neighbourhoods) was considered in order to properly assess the dependency of herd immunity on coverage of vaccination and vaccine efficacy against carriage. Issues regarding potential serotype replacement were addressed by employing a novel competition structure between multiple pneumococcal serotypes. Model parameters were calibrated from pre-vaccination data about the age-specific carriage prevalence and serotype distribution. The model predicts that elimination of vaccine-type carriage and disease among those vaccinated and, due to a substantial herd effect, also among the general population takes place within 5–10 years since the onset of a PCV programme with high (90%) coverage of vaccination and moderate (50%) vaccine efficacy against acquisition of carriage. A near-complete replacement of vaccine-type carriage by non-vaccine-type carriage occurs within the same time frame.

Conclusions

The changed patterns in pneumococcal carriage after PCV vaccination predicted by the model are unequivocal. The overall effect on disease incidence depends crucially on the magnitude of age- and serotype-specific case-to-carrier ratios of the remaining serotypes relative to those of the vaccine types. Thus the availability of reliable data on the incidence of both pneumococcal carriage and disease is essential in assessing the net effectiveness of PCV vaccination in a given epidemiological setting.     

Using the indirect cohort design to estimate the effectiveness of the seven valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in England and Wales

Background

The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV-7) was introduced in the United Kingdom in 2006 with a 2,3 and 13month schedule, and has led to large decreases in invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) caused by the vaccine serotypes in both vaccinated and unvaccinated cohorts. We estimated the effectiveness of PCV-7 against IPD.

Methods and Findings

We used enhanced surveillance data, collated at the Health Protection Agency, on vaccine type (n = 153) and non vaccine type (n = 919) IPD cases eligible for PCV-7. The indirect cohort method, a case-control type design which uses non vaccine type cases as controls, was used to estimate effectiveness of various numbers of doses as well as for each vaccine serotype. Possible bias with this design, caused by differential serotype replacement in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals, was estimated after deriving formulae to quantify the bias. The results showed good effectiveness, increasing from 56% (95% confidence interval (CI): -7-82) for a single dose given under one year of age to 93% (95% CI: 70-98) for two doses under one year of age plus a booster dose in the second year of life. Serotype specific estimates indicated higher effectiveness against serotypes 4, 14 and 18C and lower effectiveness against 6B. Under the assumption of complete serotype replacement by non vaccine serotypes in carriage, we estimated that effectiveness estimates may be overestimated by about 2 to 5%.

Conclusions

This study shows high effectiveness of PCV-7 under the reduced schedule used in the UK. This finding agrees with the large reductions seen in vaccine type IPD in recent years in England and Wales. The formulae derived to assess the bias of the indirect cohort method for PCV-7 can also be used when using the design for other vaccines that affect carriage such as the recently introduced 13 valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine.     

Experimental human pneumococcal carriage models for vaccine research

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines have had unprecedented success in controlling vaccine-type invasive pneumococcal disease. As serotype replacement and the complexity of designing vaccines to multiple capsular polysaccharides ultimately pose a threat to these vaccines, the development of alternative protein vaccines is important. Protein vaccines offer the promise of extended serotype coverage, reduced cost, and improved protection against otitis media and pneumococcal pneumonia. As placebo-controlled trials are not currently ethically justifiable, human pneumococcal challenge models using prevention of carriage as a test endpoint offer an attractive link between preclinical studies and clinical efficacy trials. Experimental human pneumococcal carriage studies offer a means of describing mechanisms of protection against carriage and a clinical tool to choose between vaccine candidates.     

Invasive pneumococcal disease in Portugal prior to and after the introduction of pneumococcal heptavalent conjugate vaccine

The rates of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), serotype distribution and antimicrobial susceptibility prior to and after the introduction of the heptavalent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Portuguese children were evaluated. The changes in incidence of IPD in children under 1 year old between the two periods of the study was not significant (P=0.53), despite the 21% decline. In children under 18 years old there was a 27.7% decrease in vaccine serotypes. All nonvaccine serotypes increased 71.4%. The decrease in vaccine serotypes was more impressive during the first year of life (-54.8%) than for children between 1 and 5 years of age (-19.1%). Among children under 1 year old, penicillin nonsusceptible isolates declined between the two periods of the study (47.2% vs. 25.0%) (P=0.03), as did those of cefotaxime and ceftriaxone nonsusceptible isolates. No changes were observed for isolates nonsusceptible to tetracycline and macrolides. The serotypes of these nonsusceptible isolates differed after the introduction of vaccine (P=0.01). Multiresistance increased 57.1% after the introduction of vaccine. Multiresistant isolates with vaccine serotype declined 42.9% (P<0.001), and nonvaccine serotypes appeared during the vaccination period (P<0.001). These findings suggest a replacement of vaccine serotypes by nonvaccine serotypes, mainly among nonsusceptible isolates.     

7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination in England and Wales: Is It Still Beneficial Despite High Levels of Serotype Replacement?

Background

The UK introduced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) into the national vaccination program in September 2006. Previous modelling assumed that the likely impact of PCV7 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) would be similar to the US experience with PCV7. However, recent surveillance data show a more rapid replacement of PCV7 IPD cases by non-PCV7 IPD cases than was seen in the US.

Methods and Findings

A previous model of pneumococcal vaccination was re-parameterised using data on vaccine coverage and IPD from England and Wales between 2006 and 2009. Disease incidence was adjusted for the increasing trend in reported IPD cases prior to vaccination. Using this data we estimated that individuals carrying PCV7 serotypes have much higher protection (96%;95% CI 72%-100%) against acquisition of NVT carriage than the 15% previously estimated from US data, which leads to greater replacement. However, even with this level of replacement, the annual number of IPD cases may be 560 (95% CI, -100 to 1230) lower ten years after vaccine introduction compared to what it may have been without vaccination. A particularly marked fall of 39% in children under 15 years by 2015/6 is predicted.

Conclusion

Our model suggests that PCV7 vaccination could result in a decrease in overall invasive pneumococcal disease, particularly in children, even in an environment of rapid replacement with non-PCV7 serotypes within 5 years of vaccine introduction at high coverage.     

Dynamics and Determinants of Pneumococcal Antibodies Specific against 13 Vaccine Serotypes in the Pre-Vaccination Era

Introduction

Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) for infants decreased overall invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), while non-vaccine serotype IPD increased. To fully understand this serotype replacement, knowledge about serotype dynamics in the pre-vaccine era is needed. In addition to IPD surveillance and carriage studies, the serotype replacement can be investigated by serosurveillance studies. The current study compared the results of two Dutch serosurveillance studies conducted in 1995–1996 (PIENTER1) and 2006–2007 (PIENTER2).

Methods

Participants in these studies donated a blood sample and completed a questionnaire. Pneumococcal antibodies of serotypes included in PCV13 were measured with a fluorescent-bead based multiplex immunoassay. Geometric mean antibody concentrations (GMCs) and determinants of pneumococcal antibody levels were investigated.

Results

GMCs were higher in PIENTER2 for serotypes 1, 6A, 6B, 9V, 18C, 19F and 23F and lower for 3 and 5. Age, day care attendance, household size, vaccination coverage, and urbanisation rate were associated with pneumococcal antibodies in children. Education level, ethnicity, age, low vaccination coverage sample, urbanisation rate, and asthma/COPD were associated with pneumococcal antibodies in elderly. The determinants significantly associated with pneumococcal IgG were slightly different for the elderly in PIENTER1 compared to the elderly in PIENTER2.

Conclusion

Although most of the serotype antibody levels remained stable, some of the serotype-specific antibody levels varied during the pre-vaccine era, indicating that exposure of certain serotypes changes without interference of PCVs.     

Mathematical modelling long-term effects of replacing Prevnar7 with Prevnar13 on invasive pneumococcal diseases in England and Wales

Introduction

England and Wales recently replaced the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) with its 13-valent equivalent (PCV13), partly based on projections from mathematical models of the long-term impact of such a switch compared to ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.

Methods

A compartmental deterministic model was used to estimate parameters governing transmission of infection and competition between different groups of pneumococcal serotypes prior to the introduction of PCV13. The best-fitting parameters were used in an individual based model to describe pneumococcal transmission dynamics and effects of various options for the vaccination programme change in England and Wales. A number of scenarios were conducted using (i) different assumptions about the number of invasive pneumococcal disease cases adjusted for the increasing trend in disease incidence prior to PCV7 introduction in England and Wales, and (ii) a range of values representing serotype replacement induced by vaccination of the additional six serotypes in PCV13.

Results

Most of the scenarios considered suggest that ceasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine use would cause an increase in invasive pneumococcal disease incidence, while replacing PCV7 with PCV13 would cause an overall decrease. However, the size of this reduction largely depends on the level of competition induced by the additional serotypes in PCV13. The model estimates that over 20 years of PCV13 vaccination, around 5000–62000 IPD cases could be prevented compared to stopping pneumococcal conjugate vaccination altogether.

Conclusion

Despite inevitable uncertainty around serotype replacement effects following introduction of PCV13, the model suggests a reduction in overall invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in all cases. Our results provide useful evidence on the benefits of PCV13 to countries replacing or considering replacing PCV7 with PCV13, as well as data that can be used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of such a switch.     

Effects of community-wide vaccination with PCV-7 on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage in the Gambia: a cluster-randomized trial

Background

Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) of limited valency is justified in Africa by the high burden of pneumococcal disease. Long-term beneficial effects of PCVs may be countered by serotype replacement. We aimed to determine the impact of PCV-7 vaccination on pneumococcal carriage in rural Gambia.

Methods and Findings

A cluster-randomized (by village) trial of the impact of PCV-7 on pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage was conducted in 21 Gambian villages between December 2003 to June 2008 (5,441 inhabitants in 2006). Analysis was complemented with data obtained before vaccination. Because efficacy of PCV-9 in young Gambian children had been shown, it was considered unethical not to give PCV-7 to young children in all of the study villages. PCV-7 was given to children below 30 mo of age and to those born during the trial in all study villages. Villages were randomized (older children and adults) to receive one dose of PCV-7 (11 vaccinated villages) or meningococcal serogroup C conjugate vaccine (10 control villages). Cross-sectional surveys (CSSs) to collect nasopharyngeal swabs were conducted before vaccination (2,094 samples in the baseline CSS), and 4–6, 12, and 22 mo after vaccination (1,168, 1,210, and 446 samples in CSS-1, -2, and -3, respectively).A time trend analysis showed a marked fall in the prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage in all age groups following vaccination (from 23.7% and 26.8% in the baseline CSS to 7.1% and 8.5% in CSS-1, in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). The prevalence of vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage was lower in vaccinated than in control villages among older children (5 y to <15 y of age) and adults (≥15 y of age) at CSS-2 (odds ratio [OR] = 0.15 [95% CI 0.04–0.57] and OR = 0.32 [95% CI 0.10–0.98], respectively) and at CSS-3 (OR = 0.37 [95% CI 0.15–0.90] for older children, and 0% versus 7.6% for adults in vaccinated and control villages, respectively). Differences in the prevalence of non-vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage between vaccinated and control villages were small.

Conclusions

Vaccination of Gambian children reduced vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage across all age groups, indicating a “herd effect” in non-vaccinated older children and adults. No significant serotype replacement was detected. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The Serotype Distribution among Healthy Carriers before Vaccination Is Essential for Predicting the Impact of Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine on Invasive Disease

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have substantially reduced morbidity and mortality of pneumococcal disease. The impact of the 7-valent PCV on all-serotype invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children was reported to vary between high-income countries. We investigate the ability to predict this heterogeneity from pre-vaccination data. We propose a parsimonious model that predicts the impact of PCVs from the odds of vaccine serotype (VT) among carriers and IPD cases in the pre-PCV period, assuming that VT are eliminated in a mature PCV programme, that full serotype replacement occurs in carriage and that invasiveness of the NVT group is unchanged. We test model performance against the reported impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD in high-income countries from a recent meta-analysis. The odds of pre-PCV7 VT IPD, PCV schedule, PCV coverage and whether a catch up campaign was used for introduction was gathered from the same analysis. We conducted a literature review and meta-analysis to obtain the odds of pre-PCV7 VT carriage in the respective settings. The model predicted the reported impact on childhood IPD of mature PCV programmes; the ratio of predicted and observed incidence risk ratios was close to 1 in all settings. In the high income settings studied differences in schedule, coverage, and catch up campaigns were not associated with the observed heterogeneity in impact of PCV7 on childhood all-serotype IPD. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT IPD alone also had limited predictive value. The pre-PCV7 proportion of VT carriage and IPD are the main determinants for the impact of PCV7 on childhood IPD and can be combined in a simple model to provide predictions of the vaccine preventable burden of IPD.     

Impact of Ten-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccination on Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Finnish Children – A Population-Based Study

Background

The ten-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV10) was introduced into the Finnish National Vaccination Program (NVP) in September 2010 with a 2+1 schedule (3, 5, 12 months) without catch-up vaccinations. We evaluated the direct and indirect effects of PCV10 on invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children ≤5 years of age during the first three years after NVP introduction.

Methods

We conducted a population-based, observational follow-up study. The cohort of vaccine-eligible children (all children born June 1, 2010 or later) was followed from 3 months of age until the end of 2013. For the indirect effect, another cohort of older children ineligible for PCV10 vaccination was followed from 2011 through 2013. Both cohorts were compared with season- and age-matched reference cohorts before NVP introduction. National, population-based laboratory surveillance data were used to compare culture-confirmed serotype-specific IPD rates in the vaccine target and reference cohorts by using Poisson regression models.

Results

The overall IPD rate among vaccine-eligible children was reduced by 80% (95%CI 72 to 85); the reduction in vaccine-type IPD was 92% (95%CI 86 to 95). However, a non-significant increase in non-vaccine type IPD was observed. During 2012–2013, we also observed a 48% (95%CI 18 to 69) reduction in IPD among unvaccinated children 2 to 5 years of age, which was mostly attributable to the ten vaccine serotypes.

Conclusions

This is the first population-based study investigating the impact of PCV10 introduction without prior PCV7 use. A substantial decrease in IPD rates among vaccine-eligible children was observed. A smaller and temporally delayed reduction among older, unvaccinated children suggests that PCV10 also provides indirect protection against vaccine-type IPD. Changes in serotype distribution warrant continuous monitoring of potential increases in non-vaccine serotypes.     

Multi-Serotype Pneumococcal Nasopharyngeal Carriage Prevalence in Vaccine Na?ve Nepalese Children,Assessed Using Molecular Serotyping

Invasive pneumococcal disease is one of the major causes of death in young children in resource poor countries. Nasopharyngeal carriage studies provide insight into the local prevalence of circulating pneumococcal serotypes. There are very few data on the concurrent carriage of multiple pneumococcal serotypes. This study aimed to identify the prevalence and serotype distribution of pneumococci carried in the nasopharynx of young healthy Nepalese children prior to the introduction of a pneumococcal conjugate vaccine using a microarray-based molecular serotyping method capable of detecting multi-serotype carriage. We conducted a cross-sectional study of healthy children aged 6 weeks to 24 months from the Kathmandu Valley, Nepal between May and October 2012. Nasopharyngeal swabs were frozen and subsequently plated on selective culture media. DNA extracts of plate sweeps of pneumococcal colonies from these cultures were analysed using a molecular serotyping microarray capable of detecting relative abundance of multiple pneumococcal serotypes. 600 children were enrolled into the study: 199 aged 6 weeks to <6 months, 202 aged 6 months to < 12 months, and 199 aged 12 month to 24 months. Typeable pneumococci were identified in 297/600 (49·5%) of samples with more than one serotype being found in 67/297 (20·2%) of these samples. The serotypes covered by the thirteen-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine were identified in 44·4% of samples containing typeable pneumococci. Application of a molecular serotyping approach to identification of multiple pneumococcal carriage demonstrates a substantial prevalence of co-colonisation. Continued surveillance utilising this approach following the introduction of routine use of pneumococcal conjugate vaccinates in infants will provide a more accurate understanding of vaccine efficacy against carriage and a better understanding of the dynamics of subsequent serotype and genotype replacement.     

Effect of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease in England: a cross-sectional study

Background

We investigated the effect of the 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) programme in England on serotype-specific carriage and invasive disease to help understand its role in serotype replacement and predict the impact of higher valency vaccines.

Methods and Findings

Nasopharyngeal swabs were taken from children <5 y old and family members (n = 400) 2 y after introduction of PCV7 into routine immunization programs. Proportions carrying Streptococcus pneumoniae and serotype distribution among carried isolates were compared with a similar population prior to PCV7 introduction. Serotype-specific case∶carrier ratios (CCRs) were estimated using national data on invasive disease. In vaccinated children and their contacts vaccine-type (VT) carriage decreased, but was offset by an increase in non-VT carriage, with no significant overall change in carriage prevalence, odds ratio 1.06 (95% confidence interval 0.76–1.49). The lower CCRs of the replacing serotypes resulted in a net reduction in invasive disease in children. The additional serotypes covered by higher valency vaccines had low carriage but high disease prevalence. Serotype 11C emerged as predominant in carriage but caused no invasive disease whereas 8, 12F, and 22F emerged in disease but had very low carriage prevalence.

Conclusion

Because the additional serotypes included in PCV10/13 have high CCRs but low carriage prevalence, vaccinating against them is likely to significantly reduce invasive disease with less risk of serotype replacement. However, a few serotypes with high CCRs could mitigate the benefits of higher valency vaccines. Assessment of the effect of PCV on carriage as well as invasive disease should be part of enhanced surveillance activities for PCVs. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Colony blot assay: a useful method to detect multiple pneumococcal serotypes within clinical specimens

The efficacy of pneumococal conjugate vaccines in young children may be complicated by serotype replacement. We developed a colony blot assay which enables the identification of re-colonization with novel serotypes (replacement), overgrowth by minor co-colonizing serotypes or suppression of previously predominant vaccine serotype strains as a result of vaccination. This method allows the identification of multiple serotypes in a single specimen in a ratio of 1:1000. In order to demonstrate the potential of our method, we investigated the consecutive nasopharyngeal samples of 26 children who had shown a shift in pneumococcal colonization after conjugate vaccination. Mixed colonization was found once in 15 pre-vaccination samples and four times in 26 post-vaccination samples. In the remaining children 'true replacement' had presumably occurred. Hence, we conclude that the colony blot assay is an easy to apply method, which allows the identification of different pneumococcal serotypes within single clinical specimens.     

The impact of specific and non-specific immunity on the ecology of Streptococcus pneumoniae and the implications for vaccination

More than 90 capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae coexist despite competing for nasopharyngeal carriage and a gradient in fitness. The underlying mechanisms for this are poorly understood and make assessment of the likely population impact of vaccination challenging. We use an individual-based simulation model to generalize widely used deterministic models for pneumococcal competition and show that in these models short-term serotype-specific and serotype non-specific immunity could constitute the mechanism governing between-host competition and coexistence. We find that non-specific immunity induces between-host competition and that serotype-specific immunity limits a type''s competitive advantage and allows stable coexistence of multiple serotypes. Serotypes carried at low prevalence show high variance in carriage levels, which would result in apparent outbreaks if they were highly pathogenic. Vaccination against few serotypes can lead to elimination of the vaccine types and induces replacement by others. However, in simulations where the elimination of the targeted types is achieved only by a combination of vaccine effects and the competitive pressure of the non-vaccine types, a universal vaccine with similar-type-specific effectiveness can fail to eliminate pneumococcal carriage and offers limited herd immunity. Hence, if vaccine effects are insufficient to control the majority of serotypes at the same time, then exploiting the competitive pressure by selective vaccination can help control the most pathogenic serotypes.     

Serotype distribution of Streptococcus pneumoniae in north-western Greece and implications for a vaccination programme

Serotypes and antibiotic sensitivities were determined for 338 strains of Streptococcus pneumoniae from children of north-western Greece with invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD), acute otitis media (AOM) and nasopharyngeal carriage. The most common serotypes among the isolates from IPD were 14 and 19F, while 3, 19F, 9V and 14 were the major cause of AOM. In these groups, the heptavalent conjugate vaccine for pneumococci (7vPCV) seems to cover 90.5% of the serotypes isolated from children less than 2 years old. Serotypes 23F and 6B were the most prevalent in carrier strains. Overall, 23.7% of the isolates were penicillin nonsusceptible (PNS), 97% were fully susceptible to cefotaxime, 29% were resistant to erythromycin, 11.2% to co-trimoxazole and 1.2% to clindamycin.     

Pneumococcal Carriage in Children under Five Years in Uganda-Will Present Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccines Be Appropriate?

BackgroundPneumonia is the major cause of death in children globally, with more than 900,000 deaths annually in children under five years of age. Streptococcus pneumoniae causes most deaths, most often in the form of community acquired pneumonia. Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) are currently being implemented in many low-income countries. PCVs decrease vaccine-type pneumococcal carriage, a prerequisite for invasive pneumococcal disease, and thereby affects pneumococcal disease and transmission. In Uganda, PCV was launched in 2014, but baseline data is lacking for pneumococcal serotypes in carriage.ObjectivesTo study pneumococcal nasopharyngeal carriage and serotype distribution in children under 5 years of age prior to PCV introduction in UgandaMethodsThree cross-sectional pneumococcal carriage surveys were conducted in 2008, 2009 and 2011, comprising respectively 150, 587 and 1024 randomly selected children aged less than five years from the Iganga/Mayuge Health and Demographic Surveillance Site. The caretakers were interviewed about illness history of the child and 1723 nasopharyngeal specimens were collected. From these, 927 isolates of S. pneumoniae were serotyped.ResultsOverall, the carriage rate of S. pneumoniae was 56% (957/1723). Pneumococcal carriage was associated with illness on the day of the interview (OR = 1.50, p = 0.04). The most common pneumococcal serotypes were in descending order 19F (16%), 23F (9%), 6A (8%), 29 (7%) and 6B (7%). One percent of the strains were non-typeable. The potential serotype coverage rate for PCV10 was 42% and 54% for PCV13.ConclusionAbout half of circulating pneumococcal serotypes in carriage in the Ugandan under-five population studied was covered by available PCVs.     

Systematic Evaluation of Serotypes Causing Invasive Pneumococcal Disease among Children Under Five: The Pneumococcal Global Serotype Project

Background

Approximately 800,000 children die each year due to pneumococcal disease and >90% of these deaths occur in developing countries where few children have access to life-saving serotype-based vaccines. Understanding the serotype epidemiology of invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) among children is necessary for vaccine development and introduction policies. The aim of this study was to systematically estimate the global and regional distributions of serotypes causing IPD in children <5 years of age.

Methods and Findings

We systematically reviewed studies with IPD serotype data among children <5 years of age from the published literature and unpublished data provided by researchers. Studies conducted prior to pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) introduction, from 1980 to 2007, with ≥12 months of surveillance, and reporting ≥20 serotyped isolates were included. Serotype-specific proportions were pooled in a random effects meta-analysis and combined with PD incidence and mortality estimates to infer global and regional serotype-specific PD burden. Of 1,292, studies reviewed, 169 were included comprising 60,090 isolates from 70 countries. Globally and regionally, six to 11 serotypes accounted for ≥70% of IPD. Seven serotypes (1, 5, 6A, 6B, 14, 19F, 23F) were the most common globally; and based on year 2000 incidence and mortality estimates these seven serotypes accounted for >300,000 deaths in Africa and 200,000 deaths in Asia. Serotypes included in both the 10- and 13-valent PCVs accounted for 10 million cases and 600,000 deaths worldwide.

Conclusions

A limited number of serotypes cause most IPD worldwide. The serotypes included in existing PCV formulations account for 49%–88% of deaths in Africa and Asia where PD morbidity and mortality are the highest, but few children have access to these life-saving vaccines. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Pneumococcal Capsular Polysaccharide Structure Predicts Serotype Prevalence

There are 91 known capsular serotypes of Streptococcus pneumoniae. The nasopharyngeal carriage prevalence of particular serotypes is relatively stable worldwide, but the host and bacterial factors that maintain these patterns are poorly understood. Given the possibility of serotype replacement following vaccination against seven clinically important serotypes, it is increasingly important to understand these factors. We hypothesized that the biochemical structure of the capsular polysaccharides could influence the degree of encapsulation of different serotypes, their susceptibility to killing by neutrophils, and ultimately their success during nasopharyngeal carriage. We sought to measure biological differences among capsular serotypes that may account for epidemiological patterns. Using an in vitro assay with both isogenic capsule-switch variants and clinical carriage isolates, we found an association between increased carriage prevalence and resistance to non-opsonic neutrophil-mediated killing, and serotypes that were resistant to neutrophil-mediated killing tended to be more heavily encapsulated, as determined by FITC-dextran exclusion. Next, we identified a link between polysaccharide structure and carriage prevalence. Significantly, non-vaccine serotypes that have become common in vaccinated populations tend to be those with fewer carbons per repeat unit and low energy expended per repeat unit, suggesting a novel biological principle to explain patterns of serotype replacement. More prevalent serotypes are more heavily encapsulated and more resistant to neutrophil-mediated killing, and these phenotypes are associated with the structure of the capsular polysaccharide, suggesting a direct relationship between polysaccharide biochemistry and the success of a serotype during nasopharyngeal carriage and potentially providing a method for predicting serotype replacement.     

Age-Dependent Prevalence of Nasopharyngeal Carriage of Streptococcus pneumoniae before Conjugate Vaccine Introduction: A Prediction Model Based on a Meta-Analysis

Introduction

Data on the prevalence of nasopharyngeal carriage of S.pneumoniae in all age groups are important to help predict the impact of introducing pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV) into routine infant immunization, given the important indirect effect of the vaccine. Yet most carriage studies are limited to children under five years of age. We here explore the association between carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in children aged ≥5 years and in adults compared to children.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of studies providing carriage estimates across age groups in healthy populations not previously exposed to PCV, using MEDLINE and Embase. We used Bayesian linear meta-regression models to predict the overall carriage prevalence as well as the prevalence and distribution of vaccine and nonvaccine type (VT and NVT) serotypes in older age groups as a function of that in <5 y olds.

Results

Twenty-nine studies compromising of 20,391 individuals were included in the analysis. In all studies nasopharyngeal carriage decreased with increasing age. We found a strong positive linear association between the carriage prevalence in pre-school childen (<5 y) and both that in school aged children (5–17 y olds) and in adults. The proportion of VT serotypes isolated from carriers was consistently lower in older age groups and on average about 73% that of children <5 y among 5–17 y olds and adults respectively. We provide a prediction model to infer the carriage prevalence and serotype distribution in 5–17 y olds and adults as a function of that in children <5 years of age.

Conclusion

Such predictions are helpful for assessing the potential population-wide effects of vaccination programmes, e.g. via transmission models, and thus assist in the design of future pneumococcal conjugate vaccination strategies.     

Pre-vaccination nasopharyngeal pneumococcal carriage in a Nigerian population: epidemiology and population biology

Background

Introduction of pneumococcal vaccines in Nigeria is a priority as part of the Accelerated Vaccine Introduction Initiative (AVI) of the Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunisation (GAVI). However, country data on the burden of pneumococcal disease (IPD) is limited and coverage by available conjugate vaccines is unknown. This study was carried out to describe the pre vaccination epidemiology and population biology of pneumococcal carriage in Nigeria.

Methods

This was a cross sectional survey. Nasopharyngeal swabs (NPS) were obtained from a population sample in 14 contiguous peri-urban Nigerian communities. Data on demographic characteristics and risk factor for carriage were obtained from all study participants. Pneumococci isolated from NPS were characterised by serotyping, antimicrobial susceptibility and Multi Locus Sequencing Typing (MLST).

Results

The prevalence of pneumococcal carriage was 52.5%. Carriage was higher in children compared to adults (67.4% vs. 26%), highest (≈90%) in infants aged <9 months and reduced significantly with increasing age (P<0.001). Serotypes 19F (18.6%) and 6A (14.4%) were most predominant. Potential vaccine coverage was 43.8%, 45.0% and 62% for PCV-7, PCV-10 and PCV-13 respectively. There were 16 novel alleles, 72 different sequence types (STs) from the isolates and 3 Sequence Types (280, 310 and 5543) were associated with isolates of more than one serotype indicative of serotype switching. Antimicrobial resistance was high for cotrimoxazole (93%) and tetracycline (84%), a third of isolates had intermediate resistance to penicillin. Young age was the only risk factor significantly associated with carriage.

Conclusions

Pneumococcal carriage and serotype diversity is highly prevalent in Nigeria especially in infants. Based on the coverage of serotypes in this study, PCV-13 is the obvious choice to reduce disease burden and prevalence of drug resistant pneumococci. However, its use will require careful monitoring. Our findings provide sound baseline data for impact assessment following vaccine introduction in Nigeria.