Projections of suitable habitat under climate change scenarios: Implications for trans-boundary assisted colonization

? Premise of the study: Climate change may threaten endemic species with extinction, particularly relicts of the Arcto-Tertiary Forest, by elimination of their contemporary habitat. Projections of future habitat are necessary to plan for conservation of these species. ? Methods: We used spline climatic models and modified Random Forests statistical procedures to predict suitable habitats for Brewer spruce (Picea breweriana), which is endemic to the Klamath Region of California and Oregon. We used three general circulation models and two sets of carbon emission scenarios (optimistic and pessimistic) for future climates. ? Key results: Our procedures predicted present occurrence of Brewer spruce perfectly. For the decades 2030, 2060, and 2090, its projected range within the Klamath Region progressively declined, to the point of disappearance in the decade 2090. The climate niche was projected to move north to British Columbia, the Yukon Territory, and southeastern Alaska. ? Conclusion: The results emphasize the necessity of assisted colonization and trans-boundary movement to prevent extinction of Brewer spruce. The projections provide a framework for formulating conservation plans, but planners must also consider regulations regarding international plant transfers.     

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature‐driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio‐diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo‐Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature‐driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40–70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered ‘marginal’ for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short‐term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO₂ on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.     

Drought-tolerant succulent plants as an alternative crop under future global warming scenarios in sub-Saharan Africa

Globally, we are facing an emerging climate crisis, with impacts to be notably felt in semiarid regions across the world. Cultivation of drought-adapted succulent plants has been suggested as a nature-based solution that could: (i) reduce land degradation, (ii) increase agricultural diversification and provide both economic and environmentally sustainable income through derived bioproducts and bioenergy, (iii) help mitigate atmospheric CO₂ emissions and (iv) increase soil sequestration of CO₂. Identifying where succulents can grow and thrive is an important prerequisite for the advent of a sustainable alternative ‘bioeconomy’. Here, we first explore the viability of succulent cultivation in Africa under future climate projections to 2100 using species distribution modelling to identify climatic parameters of greatest importance and regions of environmental suitability. Minimum temperatures and temperature variability are shown to be key controls in defining the theoretical distribution of three succulent species explored, and under both current and future SSP5 8.5 projections, the conditions required for the growth of at least one of the species are met in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa. These results are supplemented with an analysis of potentially available land for alternative succulent crop cultivation. In total, up to 1.5 billion ha could be considered ecophysiologically suitable and available for succulent cultivation due to projected declines in rangeland biomass and yields of traditional crops. These findings may serve to highlight new opportunities for farmers, governments and key stakeholders in the agriculture and energy sectors to invest in sustainable bioeconomic alternatives that deliver on environmental, social and economic goals.     

Non-native plants rarely provide suitable habitat for native gall-inducing species

For insect herbivores, a critical niche requirement—possibly the critical niche requirement—is the presence of suitable host plants. Current research suggests that non-native plants are not as suitable as native plants for native herbivores, resulting in decreases in insect abundance and richness on non-native plants. Like herbivores, gall-forming insects engage in complex, species-specific interactions with host plants. Galls are plant tissue tumors (including bulbous or spindle-shaped protrusions on leaves, stems and other plant organs) that are induced by insects through physical or chemical damage (prompting plants to grow a protective tissue shell around the insect eggs and larvae). As such, we hypothesized that gall-inducing insect species richness would be higher on native than non-native plants. We also predicted higher gall-inducing insect species richness on woody than herbaceous plants. We used an extensive literature review in which we compiled gall host plant species by genus, and we assigned native or non-native (or mixed) status to each genus. We found that native plants host far more gall-inducing insect species than non-native plants; woody plants host more gall-inducing species than herbaceous plants; and native woody plants host the most gall-inducing species of all. Gall-inducing species generally are a very cryptic group, even for experts, and hence do not elicit the conservation efforts of more charismatic insects such as plant pollinators. Our results suggest that non-native plants, particularly non-native woody species, diminish suitable habitat for gall-inducing species in parallel with similar results found for other herbivores, such as Lepidopterans. Hence, the landscape-level replacement of native with non-native species, particularly woody ones, degrades taxonomically diverse gall-inducing species (and their inquilines and parasitoids), removing multiple layers of diversity from forest ecosystems.

     

Forecasting phenology under global warming

As a consequence of warming temperatures around the world, spring and autumn phenologies have been shifting, with corresponding changes in the length of the growing season. Our understanding of the spatial and interspecific variation of these changes, however, is limited. Not all species are responding similarly, and there is significant spatial variation in responses even within species. This spatial and interspecific variation complicates efforts to predict phenological responses to ongoing climate change, but must be incorporated in order to build reliable forecasts. Here, we use a long-term dataset (1953–2005) of plant phenological events in spring (flowering and leaf out) and autumn (leaf colouring and leaf fall) throughout Japan and South Korea to build forecasts that account for these sources of variability. Specifically, we used hierarchical models to incorporate the spatial variability in phenological responses to temperature to then forecast species'' overall and site-specific responses to global warming. We found that for most species, spring phenology is advancing and autumn phenology is getting later, with the timing of events changing more quickly in autumn compared with the spring. Temporal trends and phenological responses to temperature in East Asia contrasted with results from comparable studies in Europe, where spring events are changing more rapidly than are autumn events. Our results emphasize the need to study multiple species at many sites to understand and forecast regional changes in phenology.     

全球变化情景下的中国木本植物受威胁物种名录

生物多样性正面临快速丧失的风险, 气候和土地利用变化已成为生物多样性的主要威胁之一。受威胁物种名录是区域和全球生物多样性保护的重要基础数据, 也是保护区规划的基础。作为一个生物多样性大国, 中国已开展了高等植物受威胁状况的系统性评估, 建立了受威胁植物名录, 为植物多样性保护规划提供了支撑。但由于数据和方法限制, 现有受威胁植物名录制定时未定量考虑全球变化对植物分布的潜在影响, 因而可能低估物种的受威胁等级及未来生物多样性的丧失风险。本研究基于高精度的木本植物分布数据和物种分布模型, 评估了未来气候和土地利用变化对木本植物分布的潜在影响。基于每个物种适宜分布区大小的变化, 并依据IUCN红色名录评估指标A3c的阈值标准, 更新了木本植物的受威胁等级, 补充了未来中国潜在受威胁木本植物名录。结果显示: 综合不同的气候变化情景(RCP 2.6、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5)和扩散情景(完全扩散、20 km/10年、不扩散), 约12.9%-40.5%的木本植物被评估为受威胁物种。该名录将为制定木本植物保护优先级、开展保护区规划、提升全球变化情景下的生物多样性保护成效提供基础数据, 也为其他类群制定全面的受威胁物种名录提供参考。     

Longevity of animals under reactive oxygen species stress and disease susceptibility due to global warming

The world is projected to experience an approximate doubling of atmospheric CO_2 concentration in the next decades. Rise in atmospheric CO_2 level as one of the most important reasons is expected to contribute to raise the mean global temperature 1.4 ℃-5.8 ℃ by that time. A survey from 128 countries speculates that global warming is primarily due to increase in atmospheric CO_2 level that is produced mainly by anthropogenic activities. Exposure of animals to high environmental temperatures is mostly accompanied by unwanted acceleration of certain biochemical pathways in their cells. One of such examples is augmentation in generation of reactive oxygen species(ROS) and subsequent increase in oxidation of lipids, proteins and nucleic acids by ROS. Increase in oxidation of biomolecules leads to a state called as oxidative stress(OS). Finally, the increase in OS condition induces abnormality in physiology of animals under elevated temperature. Exposure of animals to rise in habitat temperature is found to boost the metabolism of animals and a very strong and positive correlation exists between metabolism and levels of ROS and OS. Continuous induction of OS is negatively correlated with survivability and longevity and positively correlated with ageing in animals. Thus, it can be predicted that continuous exposure of animals to acute or gradual rise in habitat temperature due to global warming may induce OS, reduced survivability and longevity in animals in general and poikilotherms in particular. A positive correlation between metabolism and temperature in general and altered O_2 consumption at elevated temperature in particular could also increase the risk of experiencing OS in homeotherms. Effects of global warming on longevity of animals through increased risk of protein misfolding and disease susceptibility due to OS as the cause or effects or both also cannot be ignored. Therefore, understanding the physiological impacts of global warming in relation to longevity of animals will become very crucial challenge to biologists of the present millennium.     

Development of suitable photobioreactors for CO2 sequestration addressing global warming using green algae and cyanobacteria

CO₂ sequestration by cyanobacteria and green algae are receiving increased attention in alleviating the impact of increasing CO₂ in the atmosphere. They, in addition to CO₂ capture, can produce renewable energy carriers such as carbon free energy hydrogen, bioethanol, biodiesel and other valuable biomolecules. Biological fixation of CO₂ are greatly affected by the characteristics of the microbial strains, their tolerance to temperature and the CO₂ present in the flue gas including SO_X, NO_X. However, there are additional factors like the availability of light, pH, O₂ removal, suitable design of the photobioreactor, culture density and the proper agitation of the reactor that will affect significantly the CO₂ sequestration process. Present paper deals with the photobioreactors of different geometry available for biomass production. It also focuses on the hybrid types of reactors (integrating two reactors) which can be used for overcoming the bottlenecks of a single photobioreactor.     

Relationship between global warming and species richness of vascular plants

We analyzed climatological and geographical variables in 90 countries from the Northern Hemisphere to determine the significant variability of plant species richness as it relates to broad-scale levels of global warming. This variability was quantified by the parameters of temperature and precipitation. Of the 27 temperature variables and 13 precipitation variables, 6 variables had negative influences on species richness while 5 variables had positive impacts. When we estimated the effect of higher temperatures, we found that a 1 or 2°C rise in global warming produced an increase in species richness of 1.6 or 3.2%, respectively.     

Predicted declines in suitable habitat for greater one‐horned rhinoceros (Rhinoceros unicornis) under future climate and land use change scenarios

Rapidly changing climate is likely to modify the spatial distribution of both flora and fauna. Land use change continues to alter the availability and quality of habitat and further intensifies the effects of climate change on wildlife species. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict changes in habitat suitability for an iconic wildlife species, greater one‐horned rhinoceros due to the combined effects of climate and land use changes. We compiled an extensive database on current rhinoceros distribution and selected nine ecologically meaningful environmental variables for developing ensemble models of habitat suitability using ten different species distribution modeling algorithms in the BIOMOD2 R package; and we did this under current climatic conditions and then projected them onto two possible climate change scenarios (SSP1‐2.6 and SSP5‐8.5) and two different time frames (2050 and 2070). Out of ten algorithms, random forest performed the best, and five environmental variables—distance from grasslands, mean temperature of driest quarter, distance from wetlands, annual precipitation, and slope, contributed the most in the model. The ensemble model estimated the current suitable habitat of rhinoceros to be 2610 km², about 1.77% of the total area of Nepal. The future habitat suitability under the lowest and highest emission scenarios was estimated to be: (1) 2325 and 1904 km² in 2050; and (2) 2287 and 1686 km² in 2070, respectively. Our results suggest that over one‐third of the current rhinoceros habitat would become unsuitable within a period of 50 years, with the predicted declines being influenced to a greater degree by climatic changes than land use changes. We have recommended several measures to moderate these impacts, including relocation of the proposed Nijgad International Airport given that a considerable portion of potential rhinoceros habitat will be lost if the airport is constructed on the currently proposed site.     

Projected range contractions of montane biodiversity under global warming

Mountains, especially in the tropics, harbour a unique and large portion of the world''s biodiversity. Their geographical isolation, limited range size and unique environmental adaptations make montane species potentially the most threatened under impeding climate change. Here, we provide a global baseline assessment of geographical range contractions and extinction risk of high-elevation specialists in a future warmer world. We consider three dispersal scenarios for simulated species and for the world''s 1009 montane bird species. Under constrained vertical dispersal (VD), species with narrow vertical distributions are strongly impacted; at least a third of montane bird diversity is severely threatened. In a scenario of unconstrained VD, the location and structure of mountain systems emerge as a strong driver of extinction risk. Even unconstrained lateral movements offer little improvement to the fate of montane species in the Afrotropics, Australasia and Nearctic. Our results demonstrate the particular roles that the geography of species richness, the spatial structure of lateral and particularly vertical range extents and the specific geography of mountain systems have in determining the vulnerability of montane biodiversity to climate change. Our findings confirm the outstanding levels of biotic perturbation and extinction risk that mountain systems are likely to experience under global warming and highlight the need for additional knowledge on species'' vertical distributions, dispersal and adaptive capacities.     

Non-linear loss of suitable wine regions over Europe in response to increasing global warming

Evaluating the potential climatic suitability for premium wine production is crucial for adaptation planning in Europe. While new wine regions may emerge out of the traditional boundaries, most of the present-day renowned winemaking regions may be threatened by climate change. Here, we analyse the future evolution of the geography of wine production over Europe, through the definition of a novel climatic suitability indicator, which is calculated over the projected grapevine phenological phases to account for their possible contractions under global warming. Our approach consists in coupling six different de-biased downscaled climate projections under two different scenarios of global warming with four phenological models for different grapevine varieties. The resulting suitability indicator is based on fuzzy logic and is calculated over three main components measuring (i) the timing of the fruit physiological maturity, (ii) the risk of water stress and (iii) the risk of pests and diseases. The results demonstrate that the level of global warming largely determines the distribution of future wine regions. For a global temperature increase limited to 2°C above the pre-industrial level, the suitable areas over the traditional regions are reduced by about 4%/°C rise, while for higher levels of global warming, the rate of this loss increases up to 17%/°C. This is compensated by a gradual emergence of new wine regions out of the traditional boundaries. Moreover, we show that reallocating better-suited grapevine varieties to warmer conditions may be a viable adaptation measure to cope with the projected suitability loss over the traditional regions. However, the effectiveness of this strategy appears to decrease as the level of global warming increases. Overall, these findings suggest the existence of a safe limit below 2°C of global warming for the European winemaking sector, while adaptation might become far more challenging beyond this threshold.     

Vulnerability of global coral reef habitat suitability to ocean warming,acidification and eutrophication

Coral reefs are threatened by global and local stressors. Yet, reefs appear to respond differently to different environmental stressors. Using a global dataset of coral reef occurrence as a proxy for the long‐term adaptation of corals to environmental conditions in combination with global environmental data, we show here how global (warming: sea surface temperature; acidification: aragonite saturation state, Ω_arag) and local (eutrophication: nitrate concentration, and phosphate concentration) stressors influence coral reef habitat suitability. We analyse the relative distance of coral communities to their regional environmental optima. In addition, we calculate the expected change of coral reef habitat suitability across the tropics in relation to an increase of 0.1°C in temperature, an increase of 0.02 μmol/L in nitrate, an increase of 0.01 μmol/L in phosphate and a decrease of 0.04 in Ω_arag. Our findings reveal that only 6% of the reefs worldwide will be unaffected by local and global stressors and can thus act as temporary refugia. Local stressors, driven by nutrient increase, will affect 22% of the reefs worldwide, whereas global stressors will affect 11% of these reefs. The remaining 61% of the reefs will be simultaneously affected by local and global stressors. Appropriate wastewater treatments can mitigate local eutrophication and could increase areas of temporary refugia to 28%, allowing us to ‘buy time’, while international agreements are found to abate global stressors.     

Weakening of climatic constraints with global warming and its consequences for evergreen broad-leaved species

Meteorological stations located in the lower areas of southern Switzerland have recorded a period with distinct milder winter conditions since 1970 as compared with the first half of the 20th century. The twofold set of climatic parameters, the absolute values and frequency of minimum temperatures as well as the length of the growing season have shifted towards warmer conditions in the last thirty years. In this paper, consequences of the lengthened growing season to 11 months are discussed. The detected climatic change supposedly favours species with evergreen broad-leaved growth form. With the analysis of 170 resurveyed relevés the hypothesis of whether the group of evergreen broad-leaved species have succeeded in profiting from this weakening of climatic constraints was verified. Conspicuous changes have been observed not only in terms of the abundance and frequency of indigenous evergreen broad-leaved species, but also with a number of exotic species sharing equal characteristics and having succeeded in colonizing forest areas and establishing stands in the shrub layer. It is suggested that in areas with a minimum temperature above ?10 °C and sufficient water supply throughout the year, evergreen broad-leaved species become increasingly competitive as soon as the growing season (days without frost) lengthens to about 300–320 days.     

Modeling the potential global distribution of suitable habitat for the biological control agent Heterorhabditis indica

Entomopathogenic nematode (EPN) Heterorhabditis indica is a promising biocontrol candidate. Despite the acknowledged importance of EPN in pest control, no extensive data sets or maps have been developed on their distribution at global level. This study is the first attempt to generate Ecological Niche Models (ENM) for H. indica and its global Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) for H. indica to generate biogeographical information and predicts its global geographical range and help identify of prospective areas for its exploration and to help identify the suitable release areas for biocontrol purpose. The aim of the modeling exercise was to access the influence of temperature and soil moisture on the biogeographical patterns of H. indica at the global level. Global Heterorhabditis indica ecosystems. CLIMEX software was used to model the distribution of H. indica and assess the influence of environmental variable on its global distribution. In total, 162 records of H. indica occurrence from 27 countries over 25 years were combined to generate the known distribution data. The model was further fine‐tuned using the direct experimental observations of the H. indica''s growth response to temperature and soil moisture. Model predicts that much of the tropics and subtropics have suitable climatic conditions for H. indica. It further predicts that H. indica distribution can extend into warmer temperate climates. Examination of the model output, predictions maps at a global level indicate that H. indica distribution may be limited by cold stress, heat stress, and dry stresses in different areas. However, cold stress appears to be the major limiting factor. This study highlighted an efficient way to construct HSM for EPN potentially useful in the search/release of target species in new locations. The study showed that H. indica which is known as warm adapted EPN generally found in tropics and subtropics can potentially establish itself in warmer temperate climates as well. The model can also be used to decide the release timing of EPN by adjusting with season for maximum growth. The model developed in this study clearly identified the value and potential of Habitat Suitability Map (HSM) in planning of future surveys and application of H. indica.     

Mapping environments at risk under different global climate change scenarios

All global circulation models based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios project profound changes, but there is no consensus on how to map their environmental consequences. Our multivariate representation of environmental space combines stable topographic and edaphic attributes with dynamic climatic attributes. We divide that environmental space into 500 unique domains and map their current locations and their projected locations in 2100 under contrasting emissions scenarios. The environmental domains found across half the study area today disappear under the higher emissions scenario, but persist somewhere in it under the lower emissions scenario. Locations affected least and those affected most under each scenario are mapped. This provides an explicit framework for designing conservation networks to include both areas at least risk (potential refugia) and areas at greatest risk, where novel communities may form and where sentinel ecosystems can be monitored for signs of stress.     

Plasticity in habitat use determines metabolic response of fish to global warming in stratified lakes

We used a coupled lake physics and bioenergetics-based foraging model to evaluate how the plasticity in habitat use modifies the seasonal metabolic response of two sympatric cold-water fishes (vendace and Fontane cisco, Coregonus spp.) under a global warming scenario for the year 2100. In different simulations, the vertically migrating species performed either a plastic strategy (behavioral thermoregulation) by shifting their population depth at night to maintain the temperatures occupied at current in-situ observations, or a fixed strategy (no thermoregulation) by keeping their occupied depths at night but facing modified temperatures. The lake physics model predicted higher temperatures above 20 m and lower temperatures below 20 m in response to warming. Using temperature-zooplankton relationships, the density of zooplankton prey was predicted to increase at the surface, but to decrease in hypolimnetic waters. Simulating the fixed strategy, growth was enhanced only for the deeper-living cisco due to the shift in thermal regime at about 20 m. In contrast, simulating the plastic strategy, individual growth of cisco and young vendace was predicted to increase compared to growth currently observed in the lake. Only growth rates of older vendace are reduced under future global warming scenarios irrespective of the behavioral strategy. However, performing behavioral thermoregulation would drive both species into the same depth layers, and hence will erode vertical microhabitat segregation and intensify inter-specific competition between the coexisting coregonids.