Re-assessing current extinction rates

There is a widespread belief that we are experiencing a mass extinction event similar in severity to previous mass extinction events in the last 600 million years where up to 95% of species disappeared. This paper reviews evidence for current extinctions and different methods of assessing extinction rates including species–area relationships and loss of tropical forests, changing threat status of species, co-extinction rates and modelling the impact of climate change. For 30 years some have suggested that extinctions through tropical forest loss are occurring at a rate of up to 100 species a day and yet less than 1,200 extinctions have been recorded in the last 400 years. Reasons for low number of identified global extinctions are suggested here and include success in protecting many endangered species, poor monitoring of most of the rest of species and their level of threat, extinction debt where forests have been lost but species still survive, that regrowth forests may be important in retaining ‘old growth’ species, fewer co-extinctions of species than expected, and large differences in the vulnerability of different taxa to extinction threats. More recently, others have suggested similar rates of extinction to earlier estimates but with the key cause of extinction being climate change, and in particular rising temperatures, rather than deforestation alone. Here I suggest that climate change, rather than deforestation is likely to bring about such high levels of extinction since the impacts of climate change are local to global and that climate change is acting synergistically with a range of other threats to biodiversity including deforestation.     

Mass extinction: a commentary

Four neocatastrophist claims about mass extinction are currently being debated; they are that: 1, the late Cretaceous mass extinction was caused by large body impact; 2, as many as five other major extinctions were caused by impact; 3, the timing of extinction events since the Permian is uniformly periodic; and 4, the ages of impact craters on Earth are also periodic and in phase with the extinctions. Although strongly interconnected the four claims are independent in the sense that none depends on the others. Evidence for a link between impact and extinction is strong but still needs more confirmation through bed-by-bed and laboratory studies. An important area for future research is the question of whether extinction is a continuous process, with the rate increasing at times of mass extinctions, or whether it is episodic at all scales. If the latter is shown to be generally true, then species are at risk of extinction only rarely during their existence and catastrophism, in the sense of isolated events of extreme stress, is indicated. This is line of reasoning can only be considered an hypothesis for testing. In a larger context, paleontologists may benefit from a research strategy that looks to known Solar System and Galactic phenomena for predictions about environmental effects on earth. The recent success in the recognition of Milankovitch Cycles in the late Pleistocene record is an example of the potential of this research area.     

From success to persistence: Identifying an evolutionary regime shift in the diverse Paleozoic aquatic arthropod group Eurypterida,driven by the Devonian biotic crisis

Mass extinctions have altered the trajectory of evolution a number of times over the Phanerozoic. During these periods of biotic upheaval a different selective regime appears to operate, although it is still unclear whether consistent survivorship rules apply across different extinction events. We compare variations in diversity and disparity across the evolutionary history of a major Paleozoic arthropod group, the Eurypterida. Using these data, we explore the group's transition from a successful, dynamic clade to a stagnant persistent lineage, pinpointing the Devonian as the period during which this evolutionary regime shift occurred. The late Devonian biotic crisis is potentially unique among the “Big Five” mass extinctions in exhibiting a drop in speciation rates rather than an increase in extinction. Our study reveals eurypterids show depressed speciation rates throughout the Devonian but no abnormal peaks in extinction. Loss of morphospace occupation is random across all Paleozoic extinction events; however, differential origination during the Devonian results in a migration and subsequent stagnation of occupied morphospace. This shift appears linked to an ecological transition from euryhaline taxa to freshwater species with low morphological diversity alongside a decrease in endemism. These results demonstrate the importance of the Devonian biotic crisis in reshaping Paleozoic ecosystems.     

Extinction

A significant proportion of conservationists' work is directed towards efforts to save disappearing species. This relies upon the belief that species extinction is undesirable. When justifications are offered for this belief, they very often rest upon the assumption that extinction brought about by humans is different in kind from other forms of extinction. This paper examines this assumption and reveals that there is indeed good reason to suppose current anthropogenic extinctions to be different in kind from extinctions brought about at other times or by other factors. Having considered – and rejected – quantity and rate of extinction as useful distinguishing factors, four alternative arguments are offered, each identifying a way in which anthropogenic extinction is significantly different from other forms of extinction, even mass extinction: (1) Humans are a different kind of natural cause from other causes of extinction; (2) Extinctions brought about by humans are uniquely persistent; (3) Anthropogenic extinctions are effectively random whereas past mass extinctions are rule-bound; (4) The impact of the current anthropogenic extinction event differs from the impact of other extinction events of the past, such that future recovery may not follow past patterns. Together, these four arguments suggest that the present-day extinction event brought about by humans may be unprecedented and that we cannot clearly extrapolate from past to present recovery from extinctions. Although insufficient as justification for the claim that present-day extinctions are undesirable, the arguments provide some ammunition for conservationists' conviction that species extinction – in which humans play an accelerating role – ought to be prevented.     

Extinction rates of the Meade Basin rodents: application to current biodiversity losses

Extinction rates for terrestrial rodent species from palaeontological sites in the Meade Basin of southwestern Kansas and an archaeological site in New Mexico are compared with extinction rates for modern rodents from locations affected by anthropogenic activities. Background extinction rates are defined as global extinctions occurring over proscribed intervals in the absence of significant environmental perturbations. Background rates for the Meade Basin are estimated at 0–~1.0 E/MSY (extinctions per million species years). Elevated rates from 1.4 to 6.25 E/MSY are associated with volcanic events and Late Pleistocene environmental change. These rates are considerably less than those for rodent extinction rates promoted by human activities during the Holocene, the latter ranging from 42.3 to 50,000 E/MSY.     

Stepwise mass extinctions and impact events: Late Eocene to early Oligocene

Species ranges and relative abundances of dominant planktonic foraminifers of eight late Eocene to early Oligocene deep-sea sections are discussed to determine the nature and magnitude of extinctions and to investigate a possible cause-effect relationship between impact events and mass extinctions.Late Eocene extinctions are neither catastrophic nor mass extinctions, but occur stepwise over a period of about 1–2 million years. Four stepwise extinctions are identified at the middle/late Eocene boundary, the upperGlobigerapsis semiinvoluta zone, theG. semiinvoluta/Globorotalia cerroazulensis zone boundary and at the Eocene/Oligocene boundary. Each stepwise extinction event represents a time of accelerated faunal turnover characterized by generally less than 15% species extinct and in itself is not a significant extinction event. Relative species abundance changes at each stepwise extinction event, however, indicate a turnover involving > 60% of the population implying major environmental changes.There microtektite horizons are present in late Eocene sediments; one in the upperG. semiinvoluta zone (38.2 Ma) and two closely spaced layers only a few thousand years apart in the lower part of theGloborotalia cerroazulensis zone (37.2 Ma). Each of the three impact events appears to have had some effect on microplankton communities. However, the overriding factor that led to the stepwise mass extinctions may have been the result of multiple causes as there is no evidence of impacts associated with the step preceding, or the step following the deposition of the presently known microtektite horizons.     

Historical bird and terrestrial mammal extinction rates and causes

Aim Conservation of species is an ongoing concern. Location Worldwide. Methods We examined historical extinction rates for birds and mammals and contrasted island and continental extinctions. Australia was included as an island because of its isolation. Results Only six continental birds and three continental mammals were recorded in standard databases as going extinct since 1500 compared to 123 bird species and 58 mammal species on islands. Of the extinctions, 95% were on islands. On a per unit area basis, the extinction rate on islands was 177 times higher for mammals and 187 times higher for birds than on continents. The continental mammal extinction rate was between 0.89 and 7.4 times the background rate, whereas the island mammal extinction rate was between 82 and 702 times background. The continental bird extinction rate was between 0.69 and 5.9 times the background rate, whereas for islands it was between 98 and 844 times the background rate. Undocumented prehistoric extinctions, particularly on islands, amplify these trends. Island extinction rates are much higher than continental rates largely because of introductions of alien predators (including man) and diseases. Main conclusions Our analysis suggests that conservation strategies for birds and mammals on continents should not be based on island extinction rates and that on islands the key factor to enhance conservation is to alleviate pressures from uncontrolled hunting and predation.     

Taxon age,origination, and extinction through geologic time

Changes in the taxon ages of fossil marine families that are alive and those that become extinct in each stage of the Phanerozoic reflect changes in the origination rate, differences in the extinction rate of families with different taxon ages, and mass extinction events. Extinct families are generally much younger than the population from which they were drawn. Periods dominated by higher numbers of younger families are more susceptible to larger size extinctions and greater variation in extinction size. As a result the relative size of extinction peaks must be viewed with regard to the taxon age structure of the population. Mass extinctions cause little change in the taxon age of the fauna. However, adaptive radiations cause a large drop in the average age of the families that are alive at any given time. Families must be treated as dynamic entities in macroevolutionary studies because their probabilities of extinction change over time.     

Importance of metapopulation dynamics to explain fish persistence in a river system

1. Habitat modification and fragmentation are key factors responsible for fish population decline worldwide. Previous assessments documented a total of 72 species extinctions for the sole class of Actinopterygii. However, global extinctions are difficult to monitor or study based on fossil records. By contrast, local extinctions occurring at the population level are easier to study. Given this context, an important question relates to whether extinction dynamics studied at the local scale can provide useful information to understand extinctions occurring at larger scales. This would be the case if local extinctions were not balanced by recolonisation as in a classic metapopulation. Our aim is thus to explain the observed regional (per basin) persistence of 252 fish populations by testing contribution of local extinction rates and more generally metapopulation dynamics components.
2. To address this aim, we used the annual extinction probability of 252 regional populations of up to 14 species inhabiting 18 coastal rivers, which became isolated c. 8,500 years ago. We specifically compared extinction probabilities obtained by seven theoretical models to investigate whether regional extinction rates (i.e. loss from a river system) were correlated to local extinction rates (i.e. loss from an occupied site) and the role of metapopulation dynamics to explain regional persistence.
3. Using empirical data, we showed the importance of variables related to metapopulation dynamics to explain extinction rates across the 18 river systems. As expected, the regional extinction rate decreased with the colonisation rate, area, metapopulation size, and percentage of occupied localities. By contrast, an inconsistent relationship emerged between regional and local extinction rates, as species with high local extinction rates were not particularly prone to regional extinction.
4. Our results provide strong support for the contribution of colonisation rates to explain persistence. Overall, our results show that the equilibrium number of occupied localities could be a good predictor of the long-term persistence of metapopulations in rivers. Finally, our results suggest the importance of connectivity to maintain sustainable populations within the river system.

     

Modeling bivalve diversification: the effect of interaction on a macroevolutionary system

The global diversification of the class Bivalvia has historically received two conflicting interpretations. One is that a major upturn in diversification was associated with, and a consequence of, the Lake Permian mass extinction. The other is that mass extinctions have had little influence and that bivalves have experienced slow but nearly steady exponential diversification through most of their history, unaffected by interactions with other clades. We find that the most likely explanation lies between these two interpretations. Through most of the Phanerozoic, the diversity of bivalves did indeed exhibit slow growth, which was not substantially altered by mass extinctions. However, the presence of "hyperexponential bursts" in diversification during the initial Ordovician radiation and following the Late Permian and Late Cretaceous mass extinctions suggests a more complex history in which a higher characteristic diversification rate was dampened through most of the Phanerozoic. The observed pattern can be accounted for with a two-phase coupled (i.e., interactive) logistic model, where one phase is treated as the "bivalves" and the other phase is treated as a hypothetical group of clades with which the "bivalves" might have interacted. Results of this analysis suggest that interactions with other taxa have substantially affected bivalve global diversity through the Phanerozoic.     

Mixing of supersaturated assemblages and the precipitous loss of species

Mechanisms influencing species richness are many. Recent theoretical research revealed additional mechanisms that involved neutral and lumpy coexistence and alternating assemblage states. These mechanisms can lead to conditions where the number of coexisting species is greater than the number of limiting resources, that is, species supersaturation. Our research focused on the role of disturbances (migration and pulsed through-flows) in supersaturated plankton systems. Our simulations employed 30 different supersaturated assemblages generated by using various ecological principals. Our findings indicated that immigration rates as low as 0.1% of total biomass per day generally led to regional homogenization of species and dramatic extinction events, with assemblages characteristic of lumpy coexistence being more resilient than those characteristic of neutral coexistence or alternating states. Generally, pulsed through-flows tended to offset, to some extent, the negative effects of migration. The precipitous loss of species with the onset of migration is observed in other systems as well, for example, cichlid fish communities of East Africa rift lakes and songbird assemblages from Indian Ocean islands. While many explanations have been offered to explain postimmigration extinctions in species-rich systems, another explanation might be that the assemblages in these systems are in a fragile state of supersaturated coexistence.     

Environmental correlates of the Late Quaternary regional extinctions of large and small Palaearctic mammals

Most studies of mammal extinctions during the Pleistocene–Holocene transition explore the relative effects of climate change vs human impacts on these extinctions, but the relative importance of the different environmental factors involved remains poorly understood. Moreover, these studies are strongly biased towards megafauna, which may have been more influenced by human hunting than species of small body size. We examined the potential environmental causes of Pleistocene–Holocene mammal extinctions by linking regional environmental characteristics with the regional extinction rates of large and small mammals in 14 Palaearctic regions. We found that regional extinction rates were larger for megafauna, but extinction patterns across regions were similar for both size groups, emphasizing the importance of environmental change as an extinction factor as opposed to hunting. Still, the bias towards megafauna extinctions was larger in southern Europe and smaller in central Eurasia. The loss of suitable habitats, low macroclimatic heterogeneity within regions and an increase in precipitation were identified as the strongest predictors of regional extinction rates. Suitable habitats for many species of the Last Glacial fauna were grassland and desert, but not tundra or forest. The low‐extinction regions identified in central Eurasia are characterized by the continuous presence of grasslands and deserts until the present. In contrast, forest expansion associated with an increase in precipitation and temperature was likely the main factor causing habitat loss in the high‐extinction regions. The shift of grassland into tundra also contributed to the loss of suitable habitats in northern Eurasia. Habitat loss was more strongly related to the extinctions of megafauna than of small mammals. Ungulate species with low tolerance to deep snow were more likely to go regionally extinct. Thus, the increase in precipitation at the Pleistocene–Holocene transition may have also directly contributed to the extinctions by creating deep snow cover which decreases forage availability in winter.     

Rates of speciation in the fossil record

Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.     

Microbes and mass extinctions: paleoenvironmental distribution of microbialites during times of biotic crisis

Widespread development of microbialites characterizes the substrate and ecological response during the aftermath of two of the 'big five' mass extinctions of the Phanerozoic. This study reviews the microbial response recorded by macroscopic microbial structures to these events to examine how extinction mechanism may be linked to the style of microbialite development. Two main styles of response are recognized: (i) the expansion of microbialites into environments not previously occupied during the pre-extinction interval and (ii) increases in microbialite abundance and attainment of ecological dominance within environments occupied prior to the extinction. The Late Devonian biotic crisis contributed toward the decimation of platform margin reef taxa and was followed by increases in microbialite abundance in Famennian and earliest Carboniferous platform interior, margin, and slope settings. The end-Permian event records the suppression of infaunal activity and an elimination of metazoan-dominated reefs. The aftermath of this mass extinction is characterized by the expansion of microbialites into new environments including offshore and nearshore ramp, platform interior, and slope settings. The mass extinctions at the end of the Triassic and Cretaceous have not yet been associated with a macroscopic microbial response, although one has been suggested for the end-Ordovician event. The case for microbialites behaving as 'disaster forms' in the aftermath of mass extinctions accurately describes the response following the Late Devonian and end-Permian events, and this may be because each is marked by the reduction of reef communities in addition to a suppression of bioturbation related to the development of shallow-water anoxia.     

The form of direct interspecific competition modifies secondary extinction patterns in multi‐trophic food webs

Forcibly removing species from ecosystems has important consequences for the remaining assemblage, leading to changes in community structure, ecosystem functioning and secondary (cascading) extinctions. One key question that has arisen from single‐ and multi‐trophic ecosystem models is whether the secondary extinctions that occur within competitive communities (guilds) are also important in multi‐trophic ecosystems? The loss of consumer–resource links obviously causes secondary extinction of specialist consumers (topological extinctions), but the importance of secondary extinctions in multi‐trophic food webs driven by direct competitive exclusion remains unknown. Here I disentangle the effects of extinctions driven by basal competitive exclusion from those caused by trophic interactions in a multi‐trophic ecosystem (basal producers, intermediate and top consumers). I compared food webs where basal species either show diffuse (all species compete with each other identically: no within guild extinctions following primary extinction) or asymmetric competition (unequal interspecific competition: within guild extinctions are possible). Basal competitive exclusion drives extra extinction cascades across all trophic levels, with the effect amplified in larger ecosystems, though varying connectance has little impact on results. Secondary extinction patterns based on the relative abundance of the species lost in the primary extinction differ qualitatively between diffuse and asymmetric competition. Removing asymmetric basal species with low (high) abundance triggers fewer (more) secondary extinctions throughout the whole food web than removing diffuse basal species. Rare asymmetric competitors experience less pressure from consumers compared to rare diffuse competitors. Simulations revealed that diffuse basal species are never involved in extinction cascades, regardless of the trophic level of a primary extinction, while asymmetric competitors were. This work highlights important qualitative differences in extinction patterns that arise when different assumptions are made about the form of direct competition in multi‐trophic food webs.     

The loss of indirect interactions leads to cascading extinctions of carnivores

Species extinctions are biased towards higher trophic levels, and primary extinctions are often followed by unexpected secondary extinctions. Currently, predictions on the vulnerability of ecological communities to extinction cascades are based on models that focus on bottom‐up effects, which cannot capture the effects of extinctions at higher trophic levels. We show, in experimental insect communities, that harvesting of single carnivorous parasitoid species led to a significant increase in extinction rate of other parasitoid species, separated by four trophic links. Harvesting resulted in the release of prey from top‐down control, leading to increased interspecific competition at the herbivore trophic level. This resulted in increased extinction rates of non‐harvested parasitoid species when their host had become rare relative to other herbivores. The results demonstrate a mechanism for horizontal extinction cascades, and illustrate that altering the relationship between a predator and its prey can cause wide‐ranging ripple effects through ecosystems, including unexpected extinctions.     

Some remarks on the structure and function of refugia in ecology and palaeoecology

Studies of processes connected with various Phanerozoic mass extinctions suggest that although these events differ in details from each other, they manifest certain global mutual similarities. There is a number of detailed data on the mass extinction phases but only scarce information on the survival and recovery intervals directly following the crises. In connection with the biota crises studies also the problem of refugia started to be discussed very intensively, because namely fossil refugia can contain fossils representing important connecting links getting over boundaries of mass extinctions. The aim of this article is to join some general considerations of possible refugia structures, functions and spatial and temporal changes to the discussion being in progress.     

A primate at risk in Northeast Brazil: local extinctions of Coimbra Filho’s titi (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Callicebus coimbrai</Emphasis>)

Identifying the factors that determine local extinction of populations is crucial to ensure species conservation. Forest-dwelling primates are especially vulnerable to habitat fragmentation, although few studies have provided systematic evidence of local extinctions. Over an 11-year period, approximately 100 remnant populations of the endangered Coimbra Filho’s titi monkey (Callicebus coimbrai) have been found within the geographic range of the species in Bahia and Sergipe, Northeast Brazil. During the present study, extinction of 13 of these populations was recorded through intensive surveys. These extinctions were detected from evidence of intensive logging and clear-cutting, interviews with local residents and systematic searches of the sites where occurrence of the species had been confirmed in previous surveys. These local extinctions represent approximately 10 % of the known populations of C. coimbrai and up to 28.3 % of the area occupied by the species. Comparison of the vegetation structure in fragments where extinction was recorded and where the species still occurs indicated that sparser understorey may be a correlate of extinction, combined with the fact that extinctions occurred within fragments characterised by relatively high levels of anthropogenic disturbance. These findings reinforce the Endangered status of the species and the urgent need for intensification of conservation measures within the most impacted areas of the geographic distribution of C. coimbrai.     

Lessons from a kill

During their colonization by Polynesians and later by Europeans, the Hawaiian islands suffered a massive loss of species. All the extinctions are indirectly attributable to human impact. Nonetheless, it has proved extremely difficult to specify which of several possible mechanisms caused each particular extinction. This seems to admit defeat in the battle to understand past extinctions. Such understanding could guide our efforts to protect species that are now threatened with extinction. Will it be easier to understand the causes of future extinctions? Surveys of future extinctions stress habitat destruction as the simple and dominant mechanism. This contrasts to its secondary (and generally confused) role in past extinctions. I argue that this contrast between the complexity of the past and the apparent simplicity of the future arises because extinction mechanisms are inherently synergistic. Once extensive species losses begin, it may be impossible to separate the mechanisms and thus manage an individual species as if its decline had a single cause.