Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource‐restricted environment

In semi‐arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom‐up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource‐restricted environments. Using a 21‐year biannual capture–recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi‐arid oak woodland of coastal‐central California. We applied Pradel''s temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal‐central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.     

Comparing survey and multiple recruitment–mortality models to assess growth rates and population projections

Estimation of population trends and demographic parameters is important to our understanding of fundamental ecology and species management, yet these data are often difficult to obtain without the use of data from population surveys or marking animals. The northeastern Minnesota moose (Alces alces Linnaeus, 1758) population declined 58% during 2006–2017, yet aerial surveys indicated stability during 2012–2017. In response to the decline, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (MNDNR) initiated studies of adult and calf survival to better understand cause‐specific mortality, calf recruitment, and factors influencing the population trajectory. We estimated population growth rate (λ) using adult survival and calf recruitment data from demographic studies and the recruitment–mortality (R‐M) Equation and compared these estimates to those calculated using data from aerial surveys. We then projected population dynamics 50 years using each resulting λ and used a stochastic model to project population dynamics 30 years using data from the MNDNR's studies. Calculations of λ derived from 2012 to 2017 survey data, and the R‐M Equation indicated growth (1.02 ± 0.16 [SE] and 1.01 ± 0.04, respectively). However, the stochastic model indicated a decline in the population over 30 years (λ = 0.91 ± 0.004; 2014–2044). The R‐M Equation has utility for estimating λ, and the supporting information from demographic collaring studies also helps to better address management questions. Furthermore, estimates of λ calculated using collaring data were more certain and reflective of current conditions. Long‐term monitoring using collars would better inform population performance predictions and demographic responses to environmental variability.     

Comparison of occupancy modeling and radiotelemetry to estimate ungulate population dynamics

Radiotelemetry and unmarked occupancy modeling have been used to estimate animal population growth, but have not been compared for ungulates. We compared white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) population growth estimates from radiomarked individuals and occupancy modeling of unmarked individuals and evaluated advantages and disadvantages of each method. Estimates of population growth were obtained using remote camera (N = 54/year) detection/non-detection occupancy surveys of unmarked deer and from survival and recruitment data of radiomarked adult females (N = 87) and neonate fawns (N = 127) in a predominantly forested region of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan, USA, 2009–2011. We hypothesized that occupancy models and radiotelemetry data would have similar population growth trends because both methods sampled the same temporally closed population. Percent changes in camera trap data generally reflected finite population growth (λ) of radiomarked deer which increased (λ = 1.10 ± 0.01) from 2009 to 2010, but decreased (λ = 0.87 ± 0.02) from 2010 to 2011. Also, unmarked adult female abundance and fawn:adult female ratios generally reflected trends in radiomarked deer survival and recruitment. Royle–Nichols occupancy model abundance estimates had wide confidence intervals, which may preclude using this method from accurately estimating deer population growth. Radiotelemetry provided more precise population growth estimates, while allowing collection of vital rates and location data. However, the Royle–Nichols occupancy model may be preferred to radiotelemetry because it reflected yearly variation in population growth with reduced labor and no invasive marking. Researchers should consider the objectives and logistics of their study when choosing a specific method.     

Ostrich recruitment dynamics in relation to rainfall in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem

Animal population dynamics can be driven by rainfall variability through its influence on habitat suitability, availability and nutritional sufficiency of forage. To understand how rainfall influences ostriches, we related changes in ostrich recruitment in the Mara–Serengeti ecosystem to rainfall. Over a 15-year period, monthly counts of ostriches were made and the number of hatchlings, chicks, hens, cocks, and the size of the groups in which they occurred were recorded. Breeding was bimodal with a major peak in February and a minor peak in October. Ostriches formed larger groups in the wet (4.41 ± 5.17 (mean ± SD), range 1–72, n = 672 groups) than in the dry (2.49 ± 2.70, range 1–29, n = 398) season. The number of hatchlings plus chicks per hen increased across the duration of the study period and with increasing annual and early wet-season rainfall, affecting forage availability and quality. Recruitment was highest at intermediate levels of the five-year average of the late wet-season rainfall, implying that a change in long-term rainfall and habitat suitability would move recruitment away from the optimum. Outstanding adaptations to life in arid environments could make ostriches more resilient than sympatric ungulates if food shortages and water stress became more frequent because of widening climatic variability.     

Population dynamics of Walia ibex (Capra walie) at Simien Mountains National Park,Ethiopia

Intensive total direct counts of Walia ibex (Capra walie) population were performed at Simien Mountains National Park (SMNP) in 2009. Historical data were collected from SMNP and literature reviews. Different models were suited to determine population growth rates and intrinsic rate of increase. The population size estimated was 745 animals. The correlation between the two repeated counts was significant (r = 0.99 and P < 0.01). Mean instantaneous growth rate (r), growth rate per capita (λ) and population annual growth rate (Λ) were 2.6 ± 2.6, 0.03 ± 0.18 and 19.5 ± 50.4, respectively. Instantaneous growth rate and growth rate per capita were positively correlated (r = 0.958, P < 0.01). Average growth rate (rΛ) and intrinsic rate of increase (rr) under ideal (r = 0.950, P < 0.01) and random environments (r = 0.810, P < 0.01) were positively correlated. The population grows by 2.5% under ideal environments with an intrinsic increase of 0.04 (0.006%) and by 0.13% under random environments with intrinsic rate of decrease of ?0.184 or ?0.025% per year, respectively. The mean rank of the flock structure of whole population was 3.13, 3.88, 2.00 and 1.00 for males, females, juveniles and unidentified, respectively.     

Population viability analysis to identify management priorities for reintroduced Elk in the Cumberland Mountains,Tennessee

We used an individual-based population model to perform a viability analysis to simulate population growth (λ) of 167 elk (Cervus elaphus manitobensis; 71 male and 96 female) released in the Cumberland Mountains, Tennessee, to estimate sustainability (i.e., λ > 1.0) and identify the most appropriate options for managing elk restoration. We transported elk from Elk Island National Park, Alberta, Canada, and from Land Between the Lakes, Kentucky, and reintroduced them beginning in December 2000 and ending in February 2003. We estimated annual survival rates for 156 radio-collared elk from December 2000 until November 2004. We used data from a nearby elk herd in Great Smoky Mountains National Park to simulate pessimistic and optimistic recruitment and performed population viability analyses to evaluate sustainability over a 25-year period. Annual survival averaged 0.799 (Total SE = 0.023). The primary identifiable sources of mortality were poaching, disease from meningeal worm (Parelaphostrongylus tenuis), and accidents (environmental causes and unintentional harvest). Population growth given pessimistic recruitment rates averaged 0.895 over 25 years (0.955 in year 1 to 0.880 in year 25); population growth was not sustainable in 100% of the runs. With the most optimistic estimates of recruitment, mean λ increased to 0.967 (1.038 in year 1 to 0.956 in year 25) with 99.6% of the runs failing to be sustainable. We suggest that further translocation efforts to increase herd size will be ineffective unless survival rates are increased in the Cumberland Mountains. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Dynamics of births and juvenile recruitment in Mara–Serengeti ungulates in relation to climatic and land use changes

Natality and recruitment govern animal population dynamics, but their responses to fluctuating resources, competition, predation, shifting habitat conditions, density feedback and diseases are poorly understood. To understand the influences of climatic and land use changes on population dynamics, we monitored monthly changes in births and juvenile recruitment in seven ungulate species for 15 years (1989–2003) in the Masai Mara Reserve of Kenya. Recruitment rates declined for all species but giraffe, likely due to habitat alteration and increasing vulnerability of animals associated with recurrent severe droughts, rising temperatures, unprecedentedly strong and prolonged El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes, expansion of settlements, cultivation and human population growth in pastoral ranches adjoining the reserve. Birth rate showed strong and humped relationships with moving averages of monthly rainfall, whereas recruitment responded strongly to cumulative past rainfall. Increasing livestock incursions into the reserve depressed recruitment rate for quarter-grown topi. Expansion of pastoral settlements depressed birth rate in impala, zebra and giraffe. Frequent ENSO-related droughts caused progressive habitat desiccation and hence nutritional shortfalls for ungulates. The responses to climatic, land use and resource influences did not reflect body size, migratory or resident lifestyle, dietary guild, digestive physiology or degree of synchrony of breeding of the ungulate species.     

Assessing Compensatory Versus Additive Harvest Mortality: An Example Using Greater Sage-Grouse

ABSTRACT We used band-recovery data from 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus), one in Colorado, USA, and another in Nevada, USA, to examine the relationship between harvest rates and annual survival. We used a Seber parameterization to estimate parameters for both populations. We estimated the process correlation between reporting rate and annual survival using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods implemented in Program MARK. If hunting mortality is additive to other mortality factors, then the process correlation between reporting and survival rates will be negative. Annual survival estimates for adult and juvenile greater sage-grouse in Nevada were 0.42±0.07 (x̄±SE) for both age classes, whereas estimates of reporting rate were 0.15±0.02 and 0.16±0.03 for the 2 age classes, respectively. For Colorado, average reporting rates were 0.14±0.016, 0.14±0.010, 0.19±0.014, and 0.18±0.014 for adult females, adult males, juvenile females, and juvenile males, respectively. Corresponding mean annual survival estimates were 0.59±0.01, 0.37±0.03, 0.78±0.01, and 0.64±0.03. Estimated process correlation between logit-transformed reporting and survival rates for greater sage-grouse in Colorado was ρ = 0.68±0.26, whereas that for Nevada was ρ = 0.04±0.58. We found no support for an additive effect of harvest on survival in either population, although the Nevada study likely had low power. This finding will assist mangers in establishing harvest regulations and otherwise managing greater sage-grouse populations.     

Relative Importance of Vital Rates to Population Dynamics of Wood Ducks

The wood duck (Aix sponsa) is a common and important cavity-nesting duck in North America; however, we know very little about how changes in vital rates influence population growth rate (λ). We used estimates of fertility and survival of female wood ducks from our nest-box studies in South Carolina, Alabama, and Georgia, USA, to create a stage-based matrix population model. We conducted perturbation analyses and ranked elasticity values to examine the relative importance of 17 component vital rates to λ. Female survival is influenced by nest success, so we recognized this female heterogeneity in our analyses. Four vital rates showed the greatest importance to λ. Analytic elasticities were greatest for breeding season and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully, followed by nest success and female recruitment to the breeding population. Differences in female quality were important to λ. Next, we used process variation of vital rates and conducted life-stage simulation analyses (LSA) followed by variance decomposition to determine the amount of variation in λ explained by each vital rate. Female recruitment to the breeding population explained 57.7% of the variation in λ followed by nest success (11.4%), and breeding and nonbreeding season survival of females that nested successfully (9.3% and 9.4%, respectively). Together these 4 vital rates explained 88% of the variation in λ. Mean asymptotic population growth rate (λ = 0.80 ± 0.08 [SD]) from LSA revealed a declining population. Recruitment of females hatched from nest boxes was insufficient to sustain the nest-box population. However, including yearling (SY) females that were produced outside of nest boxes (i.e., immigrants) increased recruitment rates 1.5 to 2 times more than when only SY females recruited from nest boxes were included. Future research that examines how emigration and immigration interact with survival and reproduction to influence local population dynamics of wood ducks will be important for identifying the value of nest-box programs to wood duck conservation and management. © 2019 The Wildlife Society.     

Phenological studies of selected leaf and plant traits of Didymochlaena truncatula (Dryopteridaceae) in a Brazilian submontane tropical rainforest

The phenology of the herbaceous fern Didymochlaena truncatula in a Brazilian submontane tropical rainforest is described. A total of 23 individuals were observed over 18 months (May 2012 to October 2013). The number of live leaves, leaf production, leaf mortality, leaf growth, and fertility were recorded monthly and correlated with local rainfall and temperature. The D. truncatula plants remained evergreen with a monthly mean of 6.49 ± 0.75 leaves that were produced almost continuously at a rate of 6.13 ± 1.46 leaves plant^?1 year^?1. This rate was higher than the leaf mortality rate, which was 4.61 ± 1.27 leaves plant^?1 year^?1. Monthly leaf growth of the population was correlated with rainfall. Leaf expansion was fastest in the first month after emergence (1.31 ± 1.03 cm day^?1). Fertility and leaf production intensity were not correlated with climate factors or seasonal variations. However, leaf mortality was negatively correlated with rainfall, causing variations in the number of leaves throughout the year. These results show that the phenological rhythms of D. truncatula were not equally influenced by climate variations. The phenology of D. truncatula corresponds to the phenology of a small number of aseasonal tropical ferns.     

Erratum to: Using multistate capture–mark–recapture models to quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival and population growth in black-tailed deer

Effective species management and conservation relies on accurate estimates of vital rates and an understanding of their link to environmental variables. We used multistate capture–mark–recapture models to directly quantify effects of predation on age-specific survival of black-tailed deer Odocoileus hemionus columbianus in California, USA. Survival probabilities were derived from individual encounter histories of 136 fawns and 57 adults monitored over 4 years. Based on results from our survival analysis we parameterized a Lefkovitch matrix and used elasticity analyses to investigate contributions of mortality due to predation to changes in population growth. We found strong evidence for age-specific survival including senescence. Survival of females >1 year old was consistently low (0.56 ± 0.18 for yearlings, 0.77 ± 0.13 for prime-aged females, and 0.55 ± 0.08 for senescent individuals), primarily due to high puma Puma concolor predation during summer. Predation from black bears Ursus americanus and coyotes Canis latrans was the primary cause for low annual survival of fawns (0.24 ± 0.16). Resulting estimates of population growth rates were indicative of a strongly declining population (λ = 0.82 ± 0.13). Despite high sensitivity to changes in adult survival, results from a lower-level elasticity analysis suggested that predation on fawns was the most significant individual mortality component affecting population decline. Our results provide a rare, direct link between predation, age-specific survival and the predicted population decline of a common ungulate species. The magnitude of predation was unexpected and suggests that ungulates in multi-predator systems struggle to cope with simultaneous reductions in survival probabilities from predators targeting different age classes.     

Relative roles of density and rainfall on the short-term regulation of Mediterraneanwood mouse <Emphasis Type="Italic">Apodemus sylvaticus</Emphasis> populations

This study aims to quantify the relative effects of density-dependent (feedback structure) and density-independent climatic factors (rainfall) in regulating the short-term population dynamics of wood mice Apodemus sylvaticus Linnaeus, 1758 in three Mediterranean forest plots. Rainfall and density explained additively 62% of variation in population growth rates (38 and 24%, respectively), with no differences among study plots. Population growth rate was positive during autumn–winter and negative during spring–summer during a 2.5-year period. Population rate of change was negatively affected by wood mouse density during the normal breeding season of Mediterranean mice (autumn–winter) but not outside it. Growth rate was positively affected by the cumulative amount of rainfall three months before the normal breeding season, but not during it. Female breeding activity and recruitment did not differ among plots, and was not affected by density or rainfall. However, recruitment was positively affected by density and, marginally, by rainfall. Our results suggest that intraspecific competition (density-dependence) and food availability (rainfall) are equally important factors driving wood mouse population dynamics in Mediterranean forests. Mechanisms underlying density-dependence during the breeding season seemed to be based on food-mediated survival rather than on behaviourally-mediated reproduction. Taken together, these results indicate a high sensitivity of marginal Mediterranean wood mouse populations to the expected climate changes in the Mediterranean region.     

Demographic dynamics of the afro-tropical pig-nosed frog, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Hemisus marmoratus</Emphasis>: effects of climate and predation on survival and recruitment

We studied the population ecology of the West African pig-nosed frog, Hemisus marmoratus, to understand the relative contributions of adult survival and recruitment to population growth rate in savannah frogs using mark-recapture modelling. We marked a total of 821 adult frogs over 6 years and recaptured 74 at least once between years. Between-year adult survival was sex-specific and varied between 0.06 and 0.53 for males and 0.07–0.41 for females. Adult survival was significantly associated with annual rainfall and is cause for concern if rainfall declines further in the study region as predicted by changes in the global climate. There was a significant interaction between rainfall and sex with dry weather having a stronger negative effect on males than females. Pig-nosed frogs experienced boom and bust years with a single decline more dramatic than increases. Recruitment (in situ and immigration; 0.67–0.88) was substantially more important than adult survival (0.12–0.33) in determining realised population growth. In situ recruitment was highly variable between years with 1–36% of eggs and tadpoles released by females into the pond surviving to metamorphosis. Years of low tadpole survival were associated with high numbers of predatory tortoises. Thus, like other pond-breeding anurans, pig-nosed frogs showed highly variable juvenile recruitment, low adult survival and density-independent effects on population growth by predators and weather.     

Climate‐driven vital rates do not always mean climate‐driven population

Current climatic changes have increased the need to forecast population responses to climate variability. A common approach to address this question is through models that project current population state using the functional relationship between demographic rates and climatic variables. We argue that this approach can lead to erroneous conclusions when interpopulation dispersal is not considered. We found that immigration can release the population from climate‐driven trajectories even when local vital rates are climate dependent. We illustrated this using individual‐based data on a trans‐equatorial migratory seabird, the Scopoli's shearwater Calonectris diomedea, in which the variation of vital rates has been associated with large‐scale climatic indices. We compared the population annual growth rate λ_i, estimated using local climate‐driven parameters with ρ_i, a population growth rate directly estimated from individual information and that accounts for immigration. While λ_i varied as a function of climatic variables, reflecting the climate‐dependent parameters, ρ_i did not, indicating that dispersal decouples the relationship between population growth and climate variables from that between climatic variables and vital rates. Our results suggest caution when assessing demographic effects of climatic variability especially in open populations for very mobile organisms such as fish, marine mammals, bats, or birds. When a population model cannot be validated or it is not detailed enough, ignoring immigration might lead to misleading climate‐driven projections.     

Long-term population dynamics of a managed burrowing owl colony

We analyzed the population dynamics of a burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) colony at Mineta San Jose International Airport in San Jose, California, USA from 1990–2007. This colony was managed by using artificial burrows to reduce the occurrence of nesting owls along runways and within major airport improvement projects during the study period. We estimated annual reproduction in natural and artificial burrows and age-specific survival rates with mark–recapture techniques, and we estimated the relative contribution of these vital rates to population dynamics using a life table response experiment. The breeding colony showed 2 distinct periods of change: high population growth from 7 nesting pairs in 1991 to 40 pairs in 2002 and population decline to 17 pairs in 2007. Reproduction was highly variable: annual nesting success (pairs that raised ≥1 young) averaged 79% and ranged from 36% to 100%, whereas fecundity averaged 3.36 juveniles/pair and ranged from 1.43 juveniles/pair to 4.54 juveniles/pair. We estimated annual adult survival at 0.710 during the period of colony increase from 1996 to 2001 and 0.465 during decline from 2002 to 2007, but there was no change in annual survival of juveniles between the 2 time periods. Long-term population growth rate (λ) estimated from average vital rates was λ_a = 1.072 with λ_i = 1.288 during colony increase and λ_d = 0.921 (Δλ = 0.368) during decline. A life table response experiment showed that change in adult survival rate during increasing and declining phases explained more than twice the variation in growth rate than other vital rates. Our findings suggest that management and conservation of declining burrowing owl populations should address factors that influence adult survival. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Effects of black bear relocation on elk calf recruitment at Great Smoky Mountains National Park

Previous research from 2001 to 2006 on an experimentally released elk (Cervus elaphus) population at Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP or Park) indicated that calf recruitment (i.e., calves reaching 1 yr of age per adult female elk) was low (0.306, total SE = 0.090) resulting in low or negative population growth (λ = 0.996, 95% CI = 0.945–1.047). Black bear (Ursus americanus) predation was the primary calf mortality factor. From 2006 to 2008, we trapped and relocated 49 bears (30 of which were radiocollared) from the primary calving areas in the Park and radiomonitored 67 (28 M:39 F) adult elk and 42 calves to compare vital rates and population growth with the earlier study. A model with annual calf recruitment rate correlating with the number of bears relocated each year was supported (ΔAIC_c = 0.000; β = 0.070, 95% CI = 0.028–0.112) and a model with annual calf recruitment differing from before to during bear relocation revealed an increase to 0.544 (total SE = 0.098; β = −1.092, 95% CI = −1.180 to −0.375). Using vital rates and estimates of process standard errors observed during our study, 25-yr simulations maintained a mean positive growth rate in 100% of the stochastic trials with λ averaging 1.118 (95% CI = 1.096–1.140), an increase compared with rates before bear relocation. A life table response experiment revealed that increases in population growth were mostly (67.1%) due to changes in calf recruitment. We speculate that behavioral adaptation of the elk since release also contributed to the observed increases in recruitment and population growth. Our results suggest that managers interested in elk reintroduction within bear range should consider bear relocation as a temporary means of increasing calf recruitment. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.     

Factors influencing rate of decline in a Merriam's wild turkey population

We investigated population growth rate (λ) for a Merriam's wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo merriami) population in the northern Black Hills, South Dakota, USA. We constructed and evaluated a females-only matrix population model. Our estimate of asymptotic λ, derived from estimates of vital rates obtained from 2016–2018 was 0.74 (95% CI = 0.60, 0.88), which indicates that the vital rates were inadequate to sustain the population. Elasticity values were highest for changes in adult survival probability followed by, in order, changes in juvenile survival, yearling survival, and adult reproduction. We could only achieve stable or growing populations (i.e., λ ≥ 1) by increasing the probability of adult and yearling survival (holding all other vital rates constant). Estimated adult survival rate in the work reported here was lower than values reported for other populations in the Black Hills; therefore, managing for increased female survival (≥0.68) may be the most practical strategy for promoting wild turkey population growth in this system. We recommend no female harvest during any open turkey season.     

Demographics of an Experimentally Released Population of Elk in Great Smoky Mountains National Park

ABSTRACT We assessed the potential for reestablishing elk (Cervus elaphus) in Great Smoky Mountains National Park (GSMNP), USA, by estimating vital rates of experimentally released animals from 2001 to 2006. Annual survival rates for calves ranged from 0.333 to 1.0 and averaged 0.592. Annual survival for subadult and adult elk (i.e., ≥ 1 yr of age) ranged from 0.690 to 0.933, depending on age and sex. We used those and other vital rates to model projected population growth and viability using a stochastic individual-based model. The annual growth rate (λ) of the modeled population over a 25-year period averaged 0.996 and declined from 1.059 the first year to 0.990 at year 25. The modeled population failed to attain a positive 25-year mean growth rate in 46.0% of the projections. Poor calf recruitment was an important determinant of low population growth. Predation by black bears (Ursus americanus) was the dominant calf mortality factor. Most of the variance of growth projections was due to demographic variation resulting from the small population size (n = 61). Management actions such as predator control may help increase calf recruitment, but our projections suggest that the GSMNP elk population may be at risk for some time because of high demographic variation.     

Variation in vital-rate sensitivity between populations of Texas horned lizards

Demographic studies of imperiled populations can aid managers in planning conservation actions. However, applicability of findings for a single population across a species’ range is sometimes questionable. We conducted long-term studies (8 and 9 years, respectively) of 2 populations of the lizard Phrynosoma cornutum separated by 1000 km within the historical distribution of the species. The sites were a 15-ha urban wildlife reserve on Tinker Air Force Base (TAFB) in central Oklahoma and a 6000-ha wildland site in southern Texas, the Chaparral Wildlife Management Area (CWMA). We predicted a trade-off between the effect of adult survival and fecundity on population growth rate (λ), leading to population-specific contributions of individual vital rates to λ and individualized strategies for conservation and management of this taxon. The CWMA population had lower adult survival and higher fecundity than TAFB. As predicted, there was a trade-off in the effects of adult survival and fecundity on λ between the two sites; fecundity affected λ more at CWMA than at TAFB. However, adult survival had the smallest effect on λ in both populations. We found that recruitment in P. cornutum most affected λ at both sites, with hatchling survival having the strongest influence on λ. Management strategies focusing on hatchling survival would strongly benefit both populations. As a consequence, within the constraint of the need to more accurately estimate hatchling survival, managers across the range of species such as P. cornutum could adopt similar management priorities with respect to stage classes, despite intra-population differences in population vital rates.     

Demography of Verreaux’s sifaka in a stochastic rainfall environment

In this study, we use deterministic and stochastic models to analyze the demography of Verreaux’s sifaka (Propithecus verreauxi verreauxi) in a fluctuating rainfall environment. The model is based on 16 years of data from Beza Mahafaly Special Reserve, southwest Madagascar. The parameters in the stage-classified life cycle were estimated using mark-recapture methods. Statistical models were evaluated using information-theoretic techniques and multi-model inference. The highest ranking model is time-invariant, but the averaged model includes rainfall-dependence of survival and breeding. We used a time-series model of rainfall to construct a stochastic demographic model. The time-invariant model and the stochastic model give a population growth rate of about 0.98. Bootstrap confidence intervals on the growth rates, both deterministic and stochastic, include 1. Growth rates are most elastic to changes in adult survival. Many demographic statistics show a nonlinear response to annual rainfall but are depressed when annual rainfall is low, or the variance in annual rainfall is high. Perturbation analyses from both the time-invariant and stochastic models indicate that recruitment and survival of older females are key determinants of population growth rate.