A meta‐analysis of declines in local species richness from human disturbances

There is high uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of current and future biodiversity loss that is occurring due to human disturbances. Here, we present a global meta‐analysis of experimental and observational studies that report 327 measures of change in species richness between disturbed and undisturbed habitats across both terrestrial and aquatic biomes. On average, human‐mediated disturbances lead to an 18.3% decline in species richness. Declines in species richness were highest for endotherms (33.2%), followed by producers (25.1%), and ectotherms (10.5%). Land‐use change and species invasions had the largest impact on species richness resulting in a 24.8% and 23.7% decline, respectively, followed by habitat loss (14%), nutrient addition (8.2%), and increases in temperature (3.6%). Across all disturbances, declines in species richness were greater for terrestrial biomes (22.4%) than aquatic biomes (5.9%). In the tropics, habitat loss and land‐use change had the largest impact on species richness, whereas in the boreal forest and Northern temperate forests, species invasions had the largest impact on species richness. Along with revealing trends in changes in species richness for different disturbances, biomes, and taxa, our results also identify critical knowledge gaps for predicting the effects of human disturbance on Earth's biomes.     

Uncertainty in identifying local extinctions: the distribution of missing data and its effects on biodiversity measures

Identifying local extinctions is integral to estimating species richness and geographic range changes and informing extinction risk assessments. However, the species occurrence records underpinning these estimates are frequently compromised by a lack of recorded species absences making it impossible to distinguish between local extinction and lack of survey effort—for a rigorously compiled database of European and Asian Galliformes, approximately 40% of half-degree cells contain records from before but not after 1980. We investigate the distribution of these cells, finding differences between the Palaearctic (forests, low mean human influence index (HII), outside protected areas (PAs)) and Indo-Malaya (grassland, high mean HII, outside PAs). Such cells also occur more in less peaceful countries. We show that different interpretations of these cells can lead to large over/under-estimations of species richness and extent of occurrences, potentially misleading prioritization and extinction risk assessment schemes. To avoid mistakes, local extinctions inferred from sightings records need to account for the history of survey effort in a locality.     

Regional distribution patterns can predict the local habitat specialization of arachnids in heterogeneous landscapes of the Atlantic Forest

Aim

This study formally evaluates the ability of three models to use geographical data on species distribution to predict the habitat use patterns of species in heterogeneous landscapes.

Location

Species and habitats in the Brazilian Atlantic Rain Forest were investigated.

Methods

Based on empirical data on harvestmen and scorpions, we estimated the strength of species association with preferred habitat and classified them as habitat generalists or habitat specialists. We compared these empirical results with predictions made using data on species range size (model 1), species occurrence in biomes (model 2) and species occurrence in habitats within the biomes (model 3).

Results

We used 1,278 records of eight harvestman and two scorpion species that had specific determination and enough sampling numbers to allow safe identification of habitat specialization. We observed the following: (1) the extension of species occurrence did not influence the strength of species–habitat association (estimated by IndVal), which led us to reject model 1; (2) species habitat specialization derived from occurrences in biomes was 60% coincident with the classification derived from empirical data. This value is not different enough from the value expected by chance for these data, which also led us to reject model 2; and (3) species classification derived from secondary data about the habitats used had a significant coincidence of 80% with the empirical classification, which led us to accept model 3.

Main conclusions

For correct classification of species habitat specialization using secondary distributional data, we recommend that future studies consider using the most accurate information available on the habitats used by species. Especially for megadiverse and understudied groups, information about habitats used is not easy to obtain, so it is important for researchers and institutions to register and disseminate this information, which could support many other studies.

     

Climate change‐driven extinctions of tree species affect forest functioning more than random extinctions

Aim

Climate change affects forest functioning not only through direct physiological effects such as modifying photosynthesis and growing season lengths, but also through indirect effects on community composition related to species extinctions and colonizations. Such indirect effects remain poorly explored in comparison with the direct ones. Biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) studies commonly examine the effects of species loss by eliminating species randomly. However, species extinctions caused by climate change will depend on the species’ vulnerability to the new environmental conditions, thus occurring in a specific, non‐random order. Here, we evaluated whether successive tree species extinctions, according to their vulnerability to climate change, impact forest functions differently than random species losses.

Location

Eleven temperate forests across a gradient of climatic conditions in central Europe.

Methods

We simulated tree community dynamics with a forest succession model to study the impact of species loss on the communities’ aboveground biomass, productivity and temporal stability. Tree species were removed from the local pool (1) randomly, and according to (2) their inability to be recruited under a warmer climate or (3) their increased mortality under drier conditions.

Results

Results showed that non‐random species loss (i.e., based on their vulnerability to warmer or drier conditions) changed forest functioning at a different rate, and sometimes direction, than random species loss. Furthermore, directed extinctions, unlike random, triggered tipping points along the species loss process where forest functions were strongly impacted. These tipping points occurred after fewer extinctions in forests located in the coldest areas, where ecosystem functioning relies on fewer species.

Main conclusions

We showed that the extinction of species in a deterministic and mechanistically motivated order, in this case the species vulnerability to climate change, strengthens the selection effect of diversity on ecosystem functioning. BEF studies exploring the impact of species loss on ecosystem functioning using random extinctions thus possibly underestimate the potential effect of biodiversity loss when driven by a directional force, such as climate change.

     

Modelling the impacts of two exotic invasive species on a native butterfly: top-down vs. bottom-up effects

1. Exotic invasive species can influence population dynamics of native species through top-down or bottom-up forces. The present study examined separate and interactive effects of multiple exotic species invasions on the native mustard white butterfly, Pieris napi oleracea Harris (Lepidoptera: Pieridae), using a stochastic simulation model. 2. P. n. oleracea populations in North America have decreased regionally since the 1860s. Competition with an exotic congener (P. rapae L.), loss of native host plants and parasitism by the introduced broconid wasp (Cotesia glomerata L.), have been suggested to be independently responsible for its decline. The present study examined these hypotheses, as well as an alternative, invasion by an exotic crucifer, garlic mustard (Alliaria petiolata[Bieb.] Cavara & Grande). 3. A stochastic simulation model of P. n. oleracea population dynamics revealed that decreasing the number of host plants available for oviposition and larval development (i.e. habitat loss), sharply reduced the probability of populations persistence and decreased population size for those that persisted. 4. Simulated invasion by garlic mustard also substantially decreased both probability of persistence (= 0 at approximately 50% cover) and mean population size. Persistence probability never reached zero under any C. glomerata scenarios, even when larval mortality in the second generation due to parasitism was 100%. The impact of garlic mustard was intensified by the addition of C. glomerata parasitism. 5. Results suggest that bottom-up forces, loss of host plants through forest understorey loss and/or garlic mustard invasion are the most important forces driving P. n. oleracea population decline. Parasitism by C. glomerata may interact to reduce P. n. oleracea populations more rapidly, but appears insufficient alone to cause local extinction.     

Plant attributes determining the regional abundance of weeds on central European arable land

Aim Several recent studies have aimed to identify the biological, ecological and distributional attributes that determine the regional abundance of plant species. Here we aim to assess the relationships between regional abundance and species attributes in weeds on arable land. Location Czech Republic, central Europe. Methods The relationships between regional abundance and species attributes were studied with a data set of 381 weed species occurring on arable land in the Czech Republic. Regional species abundances were estimated from their occurrence frequency in vegetation plots distributed across the country. Using regression tree models, abundance was related to the biological traits, ecological indicator values, geographical distribution and habitat range of species. The models were calculated for the entire country and separately for weeds in cereals, root crops, lowlands and uplands. The effects of phylogenetic relatedness among species on their regional abundance were quantified and compared with the effects of species attributes. Results The results were similar for the whole data set and its particular subsets. Phylogeny explained 11.2–14.9% and species attributes 16.1–56.9% of the variation in regional abundance of weed species. Removal of the phylogenetic signal did not result in important changes in the effects of particular attributes. The most abundant species were those flowering in pre‐spring and early spring, adapted to low temperatures, relatively shade tolerant and with high nutrient requirements. The high regional abundance of these species positively correlated with their broad geographical (often circumpolar) distribution and broad habitat ranges. Main conclusions The regional abundance of weeds can, to some extent, be explained by their attributes. The most important attributes are those that enable weeds to grow and reproduce in the cool season when there is limited competition with crop plants, and those that are adaptations to growth in dense vegetation stands and highly productive habitats.     

Modelling the responses of Andean and Amazonian plant species to climate change: the effects of georeferencing errors and the importance of data filtering

Aim Species distribution models are a potentially powerful tool for predicting the effects of global change on species distributions and the resulting extinction risks. Distribution models rely on relationships between species occurrences and climate and may thus be highly sensitive to georeferencing errors in collection records. Most errors will not be caught using standard data filters. Here we assess the impacts of georeferencing errors and the importance of improved data filtering for estimates of the elevational distributions, habitat areas and predicted relative extinction risks due to climate change of nearly 1000 Neotropical plant species. Location The Amazon basin and tropical Andes, South America. Methods We model the elevational distributions, or ‘envelopes’, of 932 Amazonian and Andean plant species from 35 families after performing standard data filtering, and again using only data that have passed through an additional layer of data filtering. We test for agreement in the elevations recorded with the collection and the elevation inferred from a digital elevation model (DEM) at the collection coordinates. From each dataset we estimate species range areas and extinction risks due to the changes in habitat area caused by a 4.5 °C increase in temperature. Results Amazonian and Andean plant species have a median elevational range of 717 m. Using only standard data filters inflates range limits by a median of 433 m (55%). This is equivalent to overestimating the temperature tolerances of species by over 3 °C – only slightly less than the entire regional temperature change predicted over the next 50–100 years. Georeferencing errors tend to cause overestimates in the amount of climatically suitable habitat available to species and underestimates in species extinction risks due to global warming. Georeferencing error artefacts are sometimes so great that accurately predicting whether species habitat areas will decrease or increase under global warming is impossible. The drawback of additional data filtering is large decreases in the number of species modelled, with Andean species being disproportionately eliminated. Main conclusions Even with rigorous data filters, distribution models will mischaracterize the climatic conditions under which species occur due to errors in the collection data. These errors affect predictions of the effects of climate change on species ranges and biodiversity, and are particularly problematic in mountainous areas. Additional data filtering reduces georeferencing errors but eliminates many species due to a lack of sufficient ‘clean’ data, thereby limiting our ability to predict the effects of climate change in many ecologically important and sensitive regions such as the Andes Biodiversity Hotspot.     

Thermal biology mediates responses of amphibians and reptiles to habitat modification

Human activities often replace native forests with warmer, modified habitats that represent novel thermal environments for biodiversity. Reducing biodiversity loss hinges upon identifying which species are most sensitive to the environmental conditions that result from habitat modification. Drawing on case studies and a meta‐analysis, we examined whether observed and modelled thermal traits, including heat tolerances, variation in body temperatures, and evaporative water loss, explained variation in sensitivity of ectotherms to habitat modification. Low heat tolerances of lizards and amphibians and high evaporative water loss of amphibians were associated with increased sensitivity to habitat modification, often explaining more variation than non‐thermal traits. Heat tolerances alone explained 24–66% (mean = 38%) of the variation in species responses, and these trends were largely consistent across geographic locations and spatial scales. As habitat modification alters local microclimates, the thermal biology of species will likely play a key role in the reassembly of terrestrial communities.     

Landscape modification and habitat fragmentation: a synthesis

Landscape modification and habitat fragmentation are key drivers of global species loss. Their effects may be understood by focusing on: (1) individual species and the processes threatening them, and (2) human-perceived landscape patterns and their correlation with species and assemblages. Individual species may decline as a result of interacting exogenous and endogenous threats, including habitat loss, habitat degradation, habitat isolation, changes in the biology, behaviour, and interactions of species, as well as additional, stochastic threats. Human-perceived landscape patterns that are frequently correlated with species assemblages include the amount and structure of native vegetation, the prevalence of anthropogenic edges, the degree of landscape connectivity, and the structure and heterogeneity of modified areas. Extinction cascades are particularly likely to occur in landscapes with low native vegetation cover, low landscape connectivity, degraded native vegetation and intensive land use in modified areas, especially if keystone species or entire functional groups of species are lost. This review (1) demonstrates that species-oriented and pattern-oriented approaches to understanding the ecology of modified landscapes are highly complementary, (2) clarifies the links between a wide range of interconnected themes, and (3) provides clear and consistent terminology. Tangible research and management priorities are outlined that are likely to benefit the conservation of native species in modified landscapes around the world.     

Species traits explain recent range shifts of Finnish butterflies

This study provides a novel systematic comparative analysis of the species characteristics affecting the range margin shifts in butterflies towards higher latitudes, while taking phylogenetic relatedness among species into account. We related observed changes in the northern range margins of 48 butterfly species in Finland between two time periods (1992–1996 and 2000–2004) to 11 species traits. Species with positive records in at least ten 10 km × 10 km grid squares (in the Finnish National Butterfly Recording Scheme, NAFI) in both periods were included in the study. When corrected for range size change, the 48 butterfly species had shifted their range margins northwards on average by 59.9 km between the study periods, with maximum shifts of over 300 km for three species. This rate of range shifts exceeds all previously reported records worldwide. Our findings may be explained by two factors: the study region is situated in higher latitudes than in most previous studies and it focuses on the period of most prominent warming during the last 10–15 years. Several species traits exhibited a significant univariate relationship with the range margin shift according to generalized estimation equations (GEE) taking into account the phylogenetic relatedness among species. Nonthreatened butterflies had on average expanded their ranges strongly northwards (84.5 km), whereas the distributions of threatened species were stationary (−2.1 km). Hierarchical partitioning (HP) analysis indicated that mobile butterflies living in forest edges and using woody plants as their larval hosts exhibited largest range shifts towards the north. Thus, habitat availability and dispersal capacity of butterfly species are likely to determine whether they will be successful in shifting their ranges in response to the warming climate.     

Integrating the Rabinowitz rarity framework with a National Plant Inventory in South Korea

Increasingly large presence‐only survey datasets are becoming available for use in conservation assessments. Potentially, these records could be used to determine spatial patterns of plant species rarity and endemism. We test the integration of a large South Korean species record database with Rabinowitz rarity classes. Rabinowitz proposed seven classes of species rarity using three variables: geographic range, habitat specificity, and local population size. We estimated the range size and local abundance of 2,215 plant species from species occurrence records and habitat specificity as the number of landcover types each species’ records were found in. We classified each species into a rarity class or as common, compared species composition by class to national lists, and mapped the spatial pattern of species richness for each rarity class. Species were classed to narrow or wide geographic ranges using 315 km, the average from a range size index of all species (D_max), based on maximum distance between observations. There were four classes each within the narrow and wide range groups, sorted using cutoffs of local abundance and habitat specificity. Nationally listed endangered species only appeared in the narrow‐range classes, while nationally listed endemic species appeared in almost all classes. Species richness in most rarity classes was high in northeastern South Korea especially for species with narrow ranges. Policy implications. Large presence‐only surveys may be able to estimate some classes of rarity better than others, but modification to include estimates of local abundance and habitat types, could greatly increase their utility. Application of the Rabinowitz rarity framework to such surveys can extend their utility beyond species distribution models and can identify areas that need further surveys and for conservation priority. Future studies should be aware of the subjectivity of the rarity classification and that regional scale implementations of the framework may differ.