Historical and projected interactions between climate change and insect voltinism in a multivoltine species

Climate change can cause major changes to the dynamics of individual species and to those communities in which they interact. One effect of increasing temperatures is on insect voltinism, with the logical assumption that increases in surface temperatures would permit multivoltine species to increase the number of generations per year. Though insect development is primarily driven by temperature, most multivoltine insect species rely on photoperiodic cues, which do not change from year‐to‐year or in response to climate warming, to initiate diapause. Thus, the relationship between climate change and voltinism could be complex. We use a phenology model for grape berry moth, Paralobesia viteana (Clemens), which incorporates temperature‐dependent development and diapause termination, and photoperiod‐dependent diapause induction, to explore historical patterns in year‐to‐year voltinism fluctuations. We then extend this model to predict voltinism under varying scenarios of climate change to show the importance of both the quality and quantity of accumulated heat units. We also illustrate that increases in mean surface temperatures > 2 °C can have dramatic effects on insect voltinism by causing a shift in the ovipositional period that currently is subject to diapause‐inducing photoperiods.     

Sexual cannibalism and population viability

Some behaviours that typically increase fitness at the individual level may reduce population persistence, particularly in the face of environmental changes. Sexual cannibalism is an extreme mating behaviour which typically involves a male being devoured by the female immediately before, during or after copulation, and is widespread amongst predatory invertebrates. Although the individual‐level effects of sexual cannibalism are reasonably well understood, very little is known about the population‐level effects. We constructed both a mathematical model and an individual‐based model to predict how sexual cannibalism might affect population growth rate and extinction risk. We found that in the absence of any cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefit, sexual cannibalism is always detrimental to population growth rate and leads to a higher population extinction risk. Increasing the fecundity benefits of sexual cannibalism leads to a consistently higher population growth rate and likely a lower extinction risk. However, even if cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefits are large, very high rates of sexual cannibalism (>70%) can still drive the population to negative growth and potential extinction. Pre‐copulatory cannibalism was particularly damaging for population growth rates and was the main predictor of growth declining below the replacement rate. Surprisingly, post‐copulatory cannibalism had a largely positive effect on population growth rate when fecundity benefits were present. This study is the first to formally estimate the population‐level effects of sexual cannibalism. We highlight the detrimental effect sexual cannibalism may have on population viability if (1) cannibalism rates become high, and/or (2) cannibalism‐derived fecundity benefits become low. Decreased food availability could plausibly both increase the frequency of cannibalism, and reduce the fecundity benefit of cannibalism, suggesting that sexual cannibalism may increase the risk of population collapse in the face of environmental change.     

Effects of added nitrogen on leaf nitrogen concentration and population dynamics of insects associated with Rumex obtusifolius L.

A series of experiments was designed to study the effects of changes in leaf nitrogen (N) concentration on population dynamics of a range of insects associated with Rumex obtusifolius. During the study period, the N concentration in leaves fluctuated between 2 and 6% dry weight. The insects at both study sites showed a pattern of shift in time for peak population density (time‐shift). This suggests that the insect community dynamics might be closely related to the allocation and distribution of resources by the host‐plant. The elevated N concentration in the host‐plant did not change the temporal order of the peak population densities of the insects, although it may determine the time for the optimal exploitation of resources by each insect species.     

昆虫种群动态模拟模型

昆虫是动物界中最大的类群,与人类有着密切的利害关系。对昆虫的数量预测与符合经济和生态规律的管理,一直都被国内外列入重点研究课题。种群动态模拟是害虫管理中重要的基础工作。近十年来,关于昆虫种群动态模型的理论和实验研究进展迅速。现分别从单种种群和多种种群两个方面对国内外近些年来昆虫种群动态模拟模型的研究进展进行了概括和总结。单种种群从两个方面阐述:一是最基本的种群动态模拟模型Log istic方程的研究成果,包括方程的修正、参数的拟合与最优捕获策略等;另一个方面是对种群动态模拟常用的矩阵模型的概述,主要介绍不等期年龄组、矩阵维数的变化、矩阵维数与历期的关系、个体之间的发育差异以及发育速率差异等等对昆虫种群动态模型的影响。多种群主要从建模和模型应用两个部分对国内外研究成果进行综述。最后,对种群动态模拟模型研究的发展方向做了深入地讨论,即在原有的数据采集工作的基础上,使用面向对象程序设计语言,把各种要素包括各种物种及各种环境条件抽象成类,用消息传递来表示昆虫种群内个体与个体、昆虫种群与环境之间的相互作用,再结合先进的数学算法,建立一个直观的、操作简单的昆虫种群动态模型库,使模型结构与现实世界有最大的相似性。这样就可以实现昆虫种群动态的可视化、立体化、实时化和精确化的监测及预测。     

The role of temperature and cannibalism in interannual recruitment variation of bass in British waters

Between-year variation in bass Dicentrarchus labrax year-class strength in southern British waters is investigated. Mean spring-summer seawater temperature in the year of birth was significantly positively correlated with both the level of summer recruitment of the 0 + group to the estuarine nurseries and subsequent recruitment of III + fish to the adult population. Spectral analysis of the temperature-compensated time series showed that a statistically significant proportion of the variation not attributable to temperature was periodic at 0–33 cycles year⁻¹. Therefore, a simple, three-parameter model, combining a linear relationship between temperature and abundance and a second-order autoregressive model can be used to describe and predict variation in relative adult YCS. Bass remain for their first 3 years within their estuarine nursery areas. As I + fish were observed in Southampton water to cannibalize the 0 + group, it is suggested that strong year-classes suppress recruitment for the next 2 years even if the temperature is suitable to promote a strong year-class. Cyclic variation in recruitment caused by intraspecific interactions, particularly cannibalism, may be a feature of other marine fish that use estuaries as nursery areas.     

A population dynamics model for annual plants subject to inbreeding depression

Summary We present a population dynamics model for annual plants subject to density dependent competition and a decline in mean individual fitness with inbreeding. An analysis of this model provides three distinct sets of parameter values that define the relative influence of inbreeding depression and density on population growth. First, a population with a relatively high finite rate of increase and a relatively small environmental carrying capacity can persist in spite of low levels of inbreeding depression. These types of population may occur during a bottleneck event that is caused by pure predation (or collecting) pressure rather than loss of habitat. Second, there can exist a minimum viable population size when the finite rate of increase is relatively low and the population is also affected by density: the growth or decline of the population will depend on the initial population size. Third, when the population is small enough to be simultaneously effected by density and by inbreeding depression, there can be no viable population.     

Population dynamics of insects associated with Rumex obtusifolius in different habitats

The effect of different habitats on insect communities associated with Rumex obtusifolius was studied in detail. Study sites were selected for their variety of environmental characteristics (vegetation and habitat): shaded woodland, disturbed wasteland and pasture. The results of this study were that insect populations associated with R. obtusifolius responded differently to the different habitats. The observed differences in population dynamics among the insects showed quite clearly their responses to different habitats. There was also a pattern of time partitioning in the exploitation of the host‐plant among the insect species observed. Philaenus spumarius at nymphal stage had a peak density on approximately 20 June, Apion frumentarium and Apion spp. (Apion species other than A. frumentarium) had a peak density on approximately 30 June and Aphis rumicis had a peak density on approximately 28 July. This pattern of shift in time for peak population density (time‐shift) among the insects sharing a common host‐plant may guarantee each insect the opportunity to exploit the plant to a maximum.     

An approach to the nonlinear dynamics of Russian wheat aphid population growth with the cusp catastrophe model

Many insect field populations, especially aphids, often exhibit irregular and even catastrophic fluctuations. The objective of the present study is to explore whether or not the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) obtained under laboratory conditions can shed some light on the irregular changes of insect field populations. We propose to use the catastrophe theory, one of the earliest nonlinear dynamics theories, to answer the question. To collect the necessary data, we conducted a laboratory experiment to investigate population growth of the Russian wheat aphid (RWA), Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko), in growth chambers. The experiment was designed as the factorial combinations of five temperatures and five host plant-growth stages (25 treatments in total): 1800 newly born RWA nymphs arranged in the 25 treatments (each treatment with 72 repetitions) were observed for their development, reproduction and survival through their entire lifetimes. After obtaining the population intrinsic rates of growth ( r _m) from the experimental data under various environmental conditions, we built a cusp catastrophe model for RWA population growth by utilizing r _m as the system state variable, and temperature and host plant-growth stage as control variables. The cusp catastrophe model suggests that RWA population growth is intrinsically catastrophic , and dramatic jumps from one state to another might occur even if the temperature and plant-growth stage change smoothly . Other basic behaviors of the cusp catastrophe model, such as catastrophic jumps , hystersis and divergence , are also expected in RWA populations. These results suggest that the answer to the previously proposed question should be "yes".     

Diapause induction and termination in a commonly univoltine leaf beetle (Phratora vulgatissima)

Abstract The leaf beetle Phratora vulgatissima (Linnaeus 1758) is commonly univoltine in south‐central Sweden but may sometimes initiate a partial second generation. The current study was set out to investigate under what abiotic conditions the beetles initiate a second generation. Using climate chamber experiments, the beetles were shown to have a facultative reproductive diapause induced by declining day‐length. The critical day‐length (CDL) for diapause induction was estimated to be 18 h and 10 min. In the field, first‐generation beetles developing to adulthood before August in 2009 became reproductively active and produced a second generation, but most individuals emerged later and were in reproductive diapause. P. vulgatissima overwinter as adults and diapause was shown to be maintained until mid‐winter in 2008/2009. The cumulative temperature requirement for oviposition after diapause termination was estimated to be 222 day‐degrees with a 5.5°C temperature threshold. Three different day‐degree models that were developed to predict the phenology of female oviposition in the spring were validated by comparing model results with field data on the timing of oviposition in previous years. The study suggests that P. vulgatissima may initiate a second generation in Sweden if development of the first generation is completed before August. Warmer spring and summer temperatures due to ongoing climate change may cause advanced insect phenology and faster completion of insect life‐cycles at northern latitudes, which will affect the proportion of insects that initiate a second generation.     

Sexual cannibalism in the fishing spider and a model for the evolution of sexual cannibalism based on genetic constraints

Several hypotheses have been proposed for the evolution of sexual cannibalism by females. Newman and Elgar (1991) suggested that sexual cannibalism prior to mating by virgin female spiders may have evolved as a result of female foraging considerations. According to this model, an adult female's decision to mate or cannibalize a courting male should be based on an assessment of the male's value as a meal versus his value as a mate. The current study provides an empirical test of the assumptions and predictions of this model in the sexually cannibalistic fishing spider. Adult females were subjected to different food treatments, and exposed to adult males in the laboratory. However, only one of the assumptions of the model and none of its five predictions were upheld. We failed to find any effects of female foraging, female mating status, female size, male size or time of the season on females' behaviour towards courting males. Females behaved stereotypically, and many females were left unmated despite numerous mating opportunities. We also demonstrate costs of sexual cannibalism in a natural population. We propose that the act of sexual cannibalism in the fishing spider is non-adaptive, and develop a model for the evolution of premating sexual cannibalism in spiders based on genetic constraints. According to this hypothesis, sexual cannibalism by adult females may have evolved as an indirect result of selection for high and non-discriminate aggression during previous ontogenetic stages. Genetic covariance between different components of aggressive behaviour may constrain the degree to which (1) juvenile and adult aggression and/or (2) aggression towards conspecifics and heterospecifics can vary independently. We briefly review the support for our model, and suggest several critical tests that may be used to assess the assumptions and predictions of the model.     

A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry

A population dynamic model of Batesian mimicry, in which populations of both model and mimetic species were considered, was analyzed. The probability of a predator catching prey on each encouter was assumed to depend on the frequency of the mimic. The change in population size of each species was considered to have two components, growth at the intrinsic growth rate and carrying capacity, and reduction by predation. For simplicity in the analyses, three assumptions were made concerning the carrying capacities of each population: (1) with no density effects on the mimic population growth rate; (2) with no density effects on the model species; and (3) with density effects on both species. The first and second cases were solved analytically, whereas the last was, for the most part, investigated numerically. Under assumption (1), two stable equilibria are possible, in which both species either coexist or go to extinction. Under assumption (2), there are also two stable equilibria possible, in which either only the mimic persists or both go to extinction. These results explain the field records of butterflies (Pachliopta aristolochiae and its mimic Papilio polytes) in the Ryukyu Islands, Japan.     

A mathematical model of population dynamics for Batesian mimicry system

We analyse a mathematical model of the population dynamics among a mimic, a corresponding model, and their common predator populations. Predator changes its search-and-attack probability by forming and losing its search image. It cannot distinguish the mimic from the model. Once a predator eats a model individual, it comes to omit both the model and the mimic species from its diet menu. If a predator eats a mimic individual, it comes to increase the search-and-attack probability for both model and mimic. The predator may lose the repulsive/attractive search image with a probability per day. By analysing our model, we can derive the mathematical condition for the persistence of model and mimic populations, and then get the result that the condition for the persistence of model population does not depend on the mimic population size, while the condition for the persistence of mimic population does depend the predator's memory of search image.     

A population and energy model of a forest insect outbreak

A model is proposed for the dynamics of a forest insect population with account of food consumption and the response of plants to damage. Equations are derived relating the propagation coefficient, female mass, pest conversion efficacy, and plant reaction. Outbreak scenarios are analyzed as dependent on steady-state female weight. The results are compared with the data of observations in nature.     

利用引诱剂监测林木主要蛀干害虫

于2004~2006年间对浙江省乐清市林木蛀干害虫种类进行调查,结果显示该辖区共有47种蛀干害虫,隶属于8科41属。重点对松墨天牛Monochamus alternatus Hope、削尾材小蠹Xyleborus mutilatus Blandford等的成虫活动期林间种群数量动态进行监测。结果表明,松墨天牛林间活动期为4月下旬至11月中旬,6月上旬为高峰期,其诱获的成虫数占监测总数的41.1%,初步显示该虫在浙南地区松林内的种群数量变化规律。同时,还初步了解到削尾材小蠹成虫的活动规律。     

Temporal stability in size distributions and growth rates of three Esox lucius L. populations. A result of cannibalism?

The population total length ( L _T) structures and individual growth trajectories for three stream living pike Esox lucius populations were studied for 7 years. All three populations exhibited small variation in both population L _T structure and individual growth trajectories over time. These dynamics contrasted to the much more variable population L _T structure of perch Perca fluviatilis studied previously. The difference in population dynamics between the two species was related to differences in prey:predator size ratios. The pike populations in the more open and larger streams grew to larger sizes, but this difference in life history did not affect population dynamics of pike. It is concluded that (1) cannibalistic population dynamics may be predicted from individual life-history characteristics such as minimum and maximum victim:cannibal size ratios and (2) the cannibal-driven population dynamics observed in pike seems to be robust to variation in environmental conditions (system openness).     

Crayfish population size under different routes of pathogen transmission

We present an epidemiological model for the crayfish plague, a disease caused by an invasive oomycete Aphanomyces astaci, and its general susceptible freshwater crayfish host. The pathogen shows high virulence with resulting high mortality rates in freshwater crayfishes native to Europe, Asia, Australia, and South America. The crayfish plague occurrence shows complicated dynamics due to the several types of possible infection routes, which include cannibalism and necrophagy. We explore this complexity by addressing the roles of host cannibalism and the multiple routes of transmission through (1) environment, (2) contact, (3) cannibalism, and (4) scavenging of infected carcasses. We describe a compartment model having six classes of crayfish and a pool of crayfish plague spores from a single nonevolving strain. We show that environmental transmission is the decisive factor in the development of epidemics. Compared with a pathogen-free crayfish population, the presence of the pathogen with a low environmental transmission rate, regardless of the contact transmission rate, decreases the crayfish population size with a low risk of extinction. Conversely, a high transmission rate could drive both the crayfish and pathogen populations to extinction. High contact transmission rate with a low but nonzero environmental transmission rate can have mixed outcomes from extinction to large healthy population, depending on the initial values. Scavenging and cannibalism have a relevant role only when the environmental transmission rate is low, but scavenging can destabilize the system by transmitting the pathogen from a dead to a susceptible host. To the contrary, cannibalism stabilizes the dynamics by decreasing the proportion of infected population. Our model provides a simple tool for further analysis of complex host parasite dynamics and for the general understanding of crayfish disease dynamics in the wild.     

Long-term effects of ungulates on phytophagous insects

Abstract.  1. Most plants interact with a diverse suite of herbivores, allowing the opportunity for the existence of positive and negative interactions between highly dissimilar organisms. However, most studies on herbivorous interactions have been performed under the assumption that they occur mainly between similar species. Consequently, ecologists are still far from a full understanding of the ecological factors that determine insect population dynamics.
2. In this study, a 7-year field experiment was conducted that manipulated the presence of ungulates to evaluate their effects on the abundance, attack rate, and survival of four guilds of co-occurring herbivorous insects living on the same host plant: seed predators, stem borers, gall makers and sap suckers. These four guilds differed in habits and behaviour, the first three being sessile and endophytic and the last being free-living.
3. This study shows that the abundance of all four guilds was negatively affected by ungulates. However, the effect on attack rate differed among guilds, as mammals do not affect the seed predator attack rate. Ungulates also differentially affected insect survival, ingesting only seed predators and gall makers.
4. In summary, this study suggests that diverse mechanisms may affect different insect guilds in different ways. Therefore, competition between disparate herbivores appears to be complex and can be provoked by multiple mechanisms.