Uncertainty Evaluation of a Groundwater Conceptual Model by Using a Multimodel Averaging Method

ABSTRACT

A groundwater field is a complex and open system. Groundwater simulation and prediction often deviated from true values, which is attributed to the uncertainty of groundwater modeling. The conceptual model (model struture) is one of the main sources of groundwater modeling uncertianty. In this study, the mean Euclidean distance (MED) between model simulations and observations is proposed to assess the integrated likelihood value of a conceptual model in Bayesian model averaging (BMA). Moreover, this proposed BMA method is compared with the traditional generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) BMA method by a synthetical groundwater model, and the characteristics of these two BMA methods are summarized.     

Estimation of the mean distance of closest approach of some heavy metal ions in aqueous solutions: some experimental and theoretical calculations

The estimation of numerical values of the mean distance of closest approach of ions, a, of heavy metal ion salts in aqueous solutions, determined from activity coefficients, as well as from different theoretical approaches, is presented and discussed.     

Limited realized dispersal and introgressive hybridization influence genetic structure and conservation strategies for brown rockfish, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sebastes auriculatus</Emphasis>

Understanding patterns of connectivity among marine fish populations with demersal adults and pelagic larvae is critical for effective conservation of west coast rockfishes. The brown rockfish (Sebastes auriculatus) occurs in nearshore habitat and is common from northern Baja California, Mexico to northern California, rare off the outer coast of Oregon and Washington and again common in the inland waters of Puget Sound, Washington. Here we examine patterns of microsatellite DNA diversity from throughout the species’ range as an indirect measure of long-term trends in larval dispersal. Genetic divergence was large and highly significant over all populations (F _ST=0.056, P<0.0001), and was significantly correlated with geographic distance when considering coastal populations. The best estimates of mean coastal dispersal distance were on the order of 10 km or less per generation. Diversity was relatively low in the Puget Sound, suggesting that Puget Sound rockfish populations experienced a post-glacial founder effect followed by genetic isolation and low effective population size. Puget Sound individuals appeared to have recent mixed ancestry as a result of introgression with S. maliger and S. caurinus. Genetic isolation of Puget Sound fish provides a basis for consideration as a Distinct Population Segment (DPS) under the provisions of the Endangered Species Act. We recommend that coastal brown rockfish fisheries be managed at regional rather than coast-wide scales, and that design of marine reserve networks considers the surprisingly low realized dispersal distance of some species with high dispersal potential.     

Environmental variation is a major predictor of global trait turnover in mammals

Aim

To evaluate how environment and evolutionary history interact to influence global patterns of mammal trait diversity (a combination of 14 morphological and life‐history traits).

Location

The global terrestrial environment.

Taxon

Terrestrial mammals.

Methods

We calculated patterns of spatial turnover for mammalian traits and phylogenetic lineages using the mean nearest taxon distance. We then used a variance partitioning approach to establish the relative contribution of trait conservatism, ecological adaptation and clade specific ecological preferences on global trait turnover.

Results

We provide a global scale analysis of trait turnover across mammalian terrestrial assemblages, which demonstrates that phylogenetic turnover by itself does not predict trait turnover better than random expectations. Conversely, trait turnover is consistently more strongly associated with environmental variation than predicted by our null models. The influence of clade‐specific ecological preferences, reflected by the shared component of phylogenetic turnover and environmental variation, was considerably higher than expectations. Although global patterns of trait turnover are dependent on the trait under consideration, there is a consistent association between trait turnover and environmental predictive variables, regardless of the trait considered.

Main conclusions

Our results suggest that changes in phylogenetic composition are not always coupled with changes in trait composition on a global scale and that environmental conditions are strongly associated with patterns of trait composition across species assemblages, both within and across phylogenetic clades.     

北京市自然保护区空间布局与三区二带理念

研究的主要目标是北京市自然保护区的空间布局,通过Arcgis软件,矢量化北京市保护区边界,使得自然保护区成为研究底图中的斑块,参照位置的不同,利用Fragstats软件计算聚集度指数（AI）从而提出三区划分的假设,将北京市分成3个大的保护区体系,在此基础之上,计算各个保护区之间的几何最近邻距离（ENN）,证明三区划分的合理性。然后,通过小班数据,分析连接三区廊道之间的土地利用结构,为北京市划分出连接保护区体系的西部山脉廊道和东部水域廊道。最终形成北京市自然保护区分布格局三区二带规划理念。     

Global patterns of amphibian phylogenetic diversity

Aim Phylogenetic diversity can provide insight into how evolutionary processes may have shaped contemporary patterns of species richness. Here, we aim to test for the influence of phylogenetic history on global patterns of amphibian species richness, and to identify areas where macroevolutionary processes such as diversification and dispersal have left strong signatures on contemporary species richness. Location Global; equal‐area grid cells of approximately 10,000 km². Methods We generated an amphibian global supertree (6111 species) and repeated analyses with the largest available molecular phylogeny (2792 species). We combined each tree with global species distributions to map four indices of phylogenetic diversity. To investigate congruence between global spatial patterns of amphibian species richness and phylogenetic diversity, we selected Faith’s phylogenetic diversity (PD) index and the total taxonomic distinctness (TTD) index, because we found that the variance of the other two indices we examined (average taxonomic distinctness and mean root distance) strongly depended on species richness. We then identified regions with unusually high or low phylogenetic diversity given the underlying level of species richness by using the residuals from the global relationship of species richness and phylogenetic diversity. Results Phylogenetic diversity as measured by either Faith’s PD or TTD was strongly correlated with species richness globally, while the other two indices showed very different patterns. When either Faith’s PD or TTD was tested against species richness, residuals were strongly spatially structured. Areas with unusually low phylogenetic diversity for their associated species richness were mostly on islands, indicating large radiations of few lineages that have successfully colonized these archipelagos. Areas with unusually high phylogenetic diversity were located around biogeographic contact zones in Central America and southern China, and seem to have experienced high immigration or in situ diversification rates, combined with local persistence of old lineages. Main conclusions We show spatial structure in the residuals of the relationship between species richness and phylogenetic diversity, which together with the positive relationship itself indicates strong signatures of evolutionary history on contemporary global patterns of amphibian species richness. Areas with unusually low and high phylogenetic diversity for their associated richness demonstrate the importance of biogeographic barriers to dispersal, colonization and diversification processes.     

Sahara: Barrier or corridor? Nonmetric cranial traits and biological affinities of North African late holocene populations

The Garamantes flourished in southwestern Libya, in the core of the Sahara Desert ~3,000 years ago and largely controlled trans-Saharan trade. Their biological affinities to other North African populations, including the Egyptian, Algerian, Tunisian and Sudanese, roughly contemporary to them, are examined by means of cranial nonmetric traits using the Mean Measure of Divergence and Mahalanobis D(2) distance. The aim is to shed light on the extent to which the Sahara Desert inhibited extensive population movements and gene flow. Our results show that the Garamantes possess distant affinities to their neighbors. This relationship may be due to the Central Sahara forming a barrier among groups, despite the archaeological evidence for extended networks of contact. The role of the Sahara as a barrier is further corroborated by the significant correlation between the Mahalanobis D(2) distance and geographic distance between the Garamantes and the other populations under study. In contrast, no clear pattern was observed when all North African populations were examined, indicating that there was no uniform gene flow in the region.     

Phyloecology of urban alien floras

1.  Understanding the mechanisms that affect invasion success of alien species is a major issue in current ecological research. Although many studies have searched for either functional or habitat attributes that drive invasion mechanisms, few researchers have addressed the role of phylogenetic diversity of alien species.
2.  Here, using data from 21 urban floras located in Europe and eight in the USA, we show that the phylogenetic diversity of alien species is significantly lower than that of native species, both at the continental scale and at the scale of single cities.
3.  Second, we show that if archaeophytes and neophytes (non-native species introduced into Europe before and after AD 1500, respectively) are analysed separately, archaeophytes show lower phylogenetic diversity than neophytes, while the phylogenetic structure of neophytes is indistinguishable from a random sample of species from the entire species pool.
4.  Our results suggest that urban aliens are subject to environmental filters that constrain their phylogenetic diversity, although these filters act more strongly upon archaeophytes than neophytes.
5.   Synthesis. Despite the huge taxonomic diversity of plants imported into European and American cities, the strong environmental filters imposed by cities constrain the functional diversity of urban floras, which is reflected in their generally low phylogenetic diversity. Urban alien floras are mainly composed of phylogenetically related species that are well adapted to anthropogenic habitats, although these filters are stronger for species groups with longer residence times.     

Prediction of testcross means and variances among F3 progenies of F1 crosses from testcross means and genetic distances of their parents in maize

 Prediction of the means and genetic variances in segregating generations could help to assess the breeding potential of base populations. In this study, we investigated whether the testcross (TC) means and variances of F₃ progenies from F₁ crosses in European maize can be predicted from the TC means of their parents and F₁ crosses and four measures of parental genetic divergence: genetic distance (GD) determined by 194 RFLP or 691 AFLP^{TM 1} markers, mid-parent heterosis (MPH), and absolute difference between the TC means of parents (∣P₁−P₂∣). The experimental materials comprised six sets of crosses; each set consisted of four elite inbreds from the flint or dent germplasm and the six possible F₁ crosses between them, which were evaluated for mid-parent heterosis. Testcross progenies of these materials and 20 random F₃ plants per F₁ cross were produced with a single-cross tester from the opposite heterotic group and evaluated in two environments. The characters studied were plant height, dry matter content and grain yield. The genetic distance between parent lines ranged between 0.17 and 0.70 for RFLPs and between 0.14 and 0.57 for AFLPs in the six sets. Testcross-means of parents, F₁ crosses, and F₃ populations averaged across the six crosses in a particular set generally agreed well for all three traits. Bartlett’s test revealed heterogeneous TC variances among the six crosses in all sets for plant height, in four sets for grain yield and in five sets for dry matter content. Correlations among the TC means of the parents, F₁ crosses, and F₃ populations were highly significant and positive for all traits. Estimates of the TC variance among F₃ progenies for the 36 crosses showed only low correlations with the four measures of parental genetic divergence for all traits. The results demonstrated that for our material, the TC means of the parents or the parental F₁ cross can be used as predictors for the TC means of F₃ populations. However, the prediction of the TC variance remains an unsolved problem. Received: 4 August 1997 / Accepted: 17 November 1997     

A Unique Genetic Distance

The problem of measuring distances between discrete frequency distributions is considered. Three conditions are stated, which are believed to reflect basic, intuitive requirements to be met by a distance measure of the above kind with particular reference to genetic frequency distributions. These conditions chiefly concern aspects of maximum distance and linearity. It is shown that exactly one function meets the conditions, and this function, having all properties of a metric, is explicitly given.     

The Statistical Properties of Genetic Absolute Distance

The statistical properties of one estimator of absolute genetic distance (1/2) ^K∑_i=1 |pxi-yr|, tween two populations X and Y, are presented. It is shown that using this distance in small samples can be misleading particularly when populations are close to each other.     

Structure-activity relationship study of anoplin.

Anoplin is a decapeptide amide, GLLKRIKTLL-NH2 derived from the venom sac of the solitary spider wasp, Anoplius samariensis. It is active against Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria and is not hemolytic towards human erythrocytes. The present paper reports a structure-activity study of anoplin based on 37 analogues including an Ala-scan, C- and N-truncations, and single and multiple residue substitutions with various amino acids. The analogues were tested for antibacterial activity against both S. aureus ATCC 25923 and E. coli ATCC 25922, and several potent antibacterial analogues were identified. The cytotoxicity of the analogues against human erythrocytes was assessed in a hemolytic activity assay. The antibacterial activity and selectivity of the analogues against S. aureus and E. coli varied considerably, depending on the hydrophobicity and position of the various substituted amino acids. In certain cases the selectivity for Gram-positive and Gram-negative bacteria was either reversed or altogether eliminated. In addition, it was generally found that antibacterial activity coincided with hemolytic activity.     

Species delimitation and geography

Despite the importance of the geographical arrangement of populations for the inference of species boundaries, only a few approaches that integrate spatial information into species delimitation have thus far been developed. Persistent differentiation of sympatric groups of individuals is the best criterion for species status. Species delimitation becomes more prone to error if allopatric metapopulations are considered because it is often difficult to assess whether observed differences between allopatric metapopulations would be sufficient to prevent the fusion of these metapopulations upon contact. We propose a novel approach for testing the hypothesis that the multilocus genetic distances between individuals or populations belonging to two different candidate species are not larger than expected based on their geographical distances and the relationship of genetic and geographical distances within the candidate species. A rejection of this null hypothesis is an argument for classifying the two studied candidate species as distinct species. Case studies show that the proposed tests are suitable to distinguish between intra‐ and interspecific differentiation. The regression approach proposed here is more appropriate for testing species hypotheses with regard to isolation by distance than (partial) Mantel tests. Our tests assume a linear relationship between genetic and (transformed) geographical distances. This assumption can be compromised by a high genetic variability within populations as found in a case study with microsatellite markers.     

Post-Eocene climate change, niche conservatism, and the latitudinal diversity gradient of New World birds

Aim The aim of this study was to test a variant of the evolutionary time hypothesis for the bird latitudinal diversity gradient derived from the effects of niche conservatism in the face of global climate change over evolutionary time. Location The Western Hemisphere. Methods We used digitized range maps of breeding birds to estimate the species richness at two grain sizes, 756 and 12,100 km². We then used molecular phylogenies resolved to family to quantify the root distance (RD) of each species as a measure of its level of evolutionary development. Birds were classified as ‘basal’ or ‘derived’ based on the RD of their family, and richness patterns were contrasted for the most basal and most derived 30% of species. We also generated temperature estimates for the Palaeogene across the Western Hemisphere to examine how spatial covariation between past and present climates might make it difficult to distinguish between ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for the current richness gradient. Results The warm, wet tropics support many species from basal bird clades, whereas the northern temperate zone and cool or dry tropics are dominated by species from more recent, evolutionarily derived clades. Furthermore, crucial to evaluating how niche conservatism among birds may drive the hemispherical richness gradient, the spatial structure of the richness gradient for basal groups is statistically indistinguishable from the overall gradient, whereas the richness gradient for derived groups is much shallower than the overall gradient. Finally, modern temperatures and the pattern of climate cooling since the Eocene are indistinguishable as predictors of bird species richness. Main conclusions Differences in the richness gradients of basal vs. derived clades suggest that the hemispherical gradient has been strongly influenced by the differential extirpation of species in older, warm‐adapted clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. We propose that niche conservatism and global‐scale climate change over evolutionary time provide a parsimonious explanation for the contemporary bird latitudinal diversity gradient in the New World, although dispersal limitation of some highly derived clades probably plays a secondary role.     

Water links the historical and contemporary components of the Australian bird diversity gradient

Aim To document the geographical structure of the historical signal in the continental species richness gradient of birds and evaluate the influences of contemporary and historical climatic conditions on the generation and maintenance of the richness pattern. Location Australia. Methods We used range maps of breeding birds to generate the spatial pattern of species richness at four grain sizes, and two molecular phylogenies to measure the level of evolutionary development of avifaunas at each grain size. We then used simple correlation and path analysis to generate a statistical model of species richness using environmental predictor variables and compared the spatial patterns of richness and mean evolutionary development to identify possible environmental links between richness and net diversification rates across the continent. Results The contemporary richness pattern is well explained statistically by actual evapotranspiration (a measure of water–energy balance), operating both directly and indirectly through plant production, and this is robust to the spatial resolution of the analysis. Further, species richness and the mean level of evolutionary development of faunas show a strong spatial correspondence, such that dry areas support both fewer species and species from more highly derived families, whereas wet areas support more species of both basal and derived families. The evolutionary pattern conforms to a similar pattern known for plants and is probably explained by the increase in aridity in western and central Australia arising in the Miocene. Main conclusion The contemporary bird richness gradient contains a historical signal and reflects the effects of both current levels of water availability as well as changes in rainfall patterns extending over evolutionary time. The historical signal persists even in the absence of obvious hard barriers to dispersal.     

杀虫灯诱杀昆虫的有效距离及生态学参数

采用人工标记释放回收技术,探讨了杀虫灯诱杀斜纹夜蛾Spodoptera litura Fabricius和甜菜夜蛾Spodoptera exigua Hübner的有效距离及不同安装高度的诱杀效果。诱杀结果表明,标记释放虫源离灯越远,其灯下回收率越低;灯高0.8m的灯下回收率显著高于灯高1.3m。提出了用"可控距离CID"、"诱杀中距离MTD50"、"诱杀黄金距离GTD61.8"3个生态学参数量化与规范杀虫灯对昆虫的诱杀距离。拟合结果表明,高0.8m杀虫灯诱杀斜纹夜蛾和甜菜夜蛾的可控距离分别为115.1m、110.9m,诱杀中距离分别为71.8m、67.4m,诱杀黄金距离分别为61.5m、57.1m,可控面积分别是4.2hm2、3.9hm2;高1.3m杀虫灯诱杀斜纹夜蛾和甜菜夜蛾的可控距离分别为108.1m、107.8m,诱杀中距离分别为66.6m、64.7m,诱杀黄金距离分别为56.7m、54.5m,可控面积分别是3.7hm2、3.6hm2。